电子封装行业化学有害因素职业暴露评价

以法规及风险评价模型为基础,对电子封装行业内通常使用的化学有害因素进行职业暴露分析,将健康风险进行分级、定量评价,得出结论:行业中回流焊工艺可能产生的铅烟、电镀车间存在的硝酸、失效分析中使用的氢氟酸等,其职业暴露风险为中等风险水平;但由于化学物质的健康危害等级HR因其固有性而相对不变,而其会随控制措施的效果高低而变化的暴露等级ER是一个可变的要素,不同企业的控制措施的水平高低不同,其最终的风险等级可能是不同的。行业中使用的氢氧化钾、氢氧化钠的职业暴露风险为低风险水平,前提也是在合理有效的控制措施环境下。因此,控制措施的水平就是决定风险等级的最重要因素。时时地运行和维护有效的控制措施,是确保风险水平不发生变化的关键。     

江苏省道路交通安全评价研究

笔者利用历年江苏省道路交通事故基本数据进行指标筛选,对道路交通安全状况采用灰色理论和主成分分析相结合的评价方法。从宏观角度,应用灰色聚类评价理论,对江苏省历年来道路安全发展趋势;横向结合统计软件SPSS采用主成分分析法,构造综合评价指标,比较研究江苏省各城市道路安全现状。新方法从纵向和横向对江苏省道路交通安全形势进行了较为全面的分析,取得较为满意的效果。     

改进模糊Petri网在空管安全风险评估中的应用

科学、有效的空管安全风险评估是进行安全风险管理的重要环节,是保证航空事业健康发展的必要前提。遵循计划(P)—实施(I)—检查(C)—处理(A)的程序,建立了具有针对性的空管安全风险评价体系。在评估过程中采用模糊Petri网方法,同时针对其节点过多和变迁权值主观性强的缺点,引入风险等级阀值和层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP),运用逆向搜索的方法简约复杂的模糊Petri网,在保证能够找出威胁安全的主要因素和准确评估空管系统安全状态的前提下,简化后续计算和推理过程,快速得到评价结果,实例验证该方法有效、可行。     

The nature of safety culture: a review of theory and research

This paper reviews the literature on safety culture and safety climate. The main emphasis is on applied research customary in the social psychological or organisational psychological traditions. Although safety culture and climate are generally acknowledged to be important concepts, not much consensus has been reached on the cause, the content and the consequences of safety culture and climate in the past 20 years. Moreover, there is an overall lack of models specifying either the relationship of both concepts with safety and risk management or with safety performance. In this paper, safety culture and climate will be differentiated according to a general framework based on work by Schein (1992 Schein) on organisational culture. This framework distinguishes three levels at which organisational culture can be studied — basis assumptions, espoused values and artefacts. At the level of espoused values we find attitudes, which are equated with safety climate. The basic assumptions, however, form the core of the culture. It is argued that these basic assumptions do not have to be specifically about safety, although it is considered a good sign if they are. It is concluded that safety climate might be considered an alternative safety performance indicator and that research should focus on its scientific validity. More important, however, is the assessment of an organisation's basic assumptions, since these are assumed to be explanatory to its attitudes.     

Don't wait for accidents — possibilities to assess risk in traffic by applying the ‘Wiener Fahrprobe’

In Vienna during more than 10 years of research work a special traffic behaviour observation method has been developed, evaluated and applied by Risser et al. in the frame of many different traffic safety projects. Car drivers are accompanied by two observers who register not only errors in behaviour of drivers but also their communication and interaction with other road users. Malfunction of communication and interaction are judged as main sources for problems for danger in traffic. For example, if they lead to a bad traffic climate fealings of discomfort, anger and frustration will prevent cooperative actions of road users. Being able to recognize such negative or dangerous interaction patterns in time it seems to be easier to protect road users — most often the ‘unprotected’ ones — from getting involved in accidents. This contribution gives an impression about theory and practice of the observation method and shows results of different studies, where the method called ‘Wiener Fahrprobe’ has been applied. Furthermore it will show how the method and its results can be used in the frame of the European traffic (safety) research projects ‘PROMETHEUS’ and ‘DRIVE’. Till now no accident data exist in respect to new RTI systems. Therefore it seems to be important to have a sophisticated social-psychological method for testing the behaviour and interaction of road users in connection with these systems. This is a necessary prediction for deciding whether the systems are socially compatible or not.     

基于条件风险价值的危险品道路运输时变路径选择

危险品运输中的风险评估是危险品运输路径选择的基础,条件风险价值模型通过变换置信水平来反映决策者的风险偏好,并能控制风险超过风险价值的部分。为研究时变条件下的路径选择问题,基于决策者不同的风险偏好,建立基于条件风险价值的危险品道路运输时变路径选择模型,以此评估各可行路径的风险,选择最优CVaR路径。结果表明:该模型能使风险评估更适合现实道路的时变特性;合理的出发时间和运输路径可以有效降低运输风险,最优CVaR及最优路径依赖于出发时间,且不同风险偏好对应不同的最优CVaR及最优路径。     

Intrinsic road safety: A new approach?

In 1991 the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management concluded that its policy regarding road-safety should be sharpened in order that its goal set for road-safety in the year 2010 would be achieved (i.e. 50% reduction of dead and 40% reduction of wounded persons in comparison with 1986). This new policy is being called “Intrinsic Safety”.The important elements of this course of action are:

• - A greater degree of control of structural developments.

• - Increased action to prevent accidents rather than that which reduces the severity of the consequences of accidents.

• - Greater attention for an integral approach of traffic safety, through influencing all kinds of decision makers outside the realm of traffic safety.

• - Not viewing and treating the human aspects, the roads and the vehicles in isolation, but primarily focusing attention on the interaction between these components.

At the moment the Ministry has inaugurated some actions which will be a more specific elaboration of “Intrinsic Safety”.In this paper we will try to analyze whether this new policy is a totally new concept rather than an intensification of the old course of action. Furthermore we will discuss a few problems which may occur when the “Intrinsic Safety” approach will be elaborated in the near future. For example:

• - How do we make sure that chosen measures (e.g. decisions concerning the infrastructure) will be the most effectual ones in relation with safety?

• - Is the organisation at this moment sufficiently fit to work on an “intrinsically safe traffic system” or is it inappropriate? (e.g., presently there is an increasing tendency of decisions being made by regional departments rather than by central government)

• - Are we in the possession of sufficient knowledge concerning the interactions between the several goals of traffic policy so that actions taken in relation with one goal (e.g. reducing air pollution) will not have a negative effect on traffic safety?

     

空管安全风险管理信息系统分析与设计

针对空中交通服务管理系统(简称为"空管",下同)中存在的安全管理不规范、安全信息不畅通和信息化程度低等安全管理问题,根据空管安全风险管理信息系统(SRMIS)的工作原理,提出SRMIS的业务流程和组织结构,设计了SRMIS的总体结构、风险管控和指标预警等主要功能,研究实现过程中的指标评价、部门评价和模糊综合评价等信息评价方法以及指标预警、因素预警和综合预警等预警预控方法和关键技术。该系统能进行持续的风险识别和综合预警,定期自检、自查、自审,不断改进安全管理工作,并在武汉空管中心实证有较好的应用效果,为空管中心的安全风险管理提供了信息化管理的工具和途径。     

Examination of the severity of two-lane highway traffic barrier crashes using the mixed logit model

IntroductionVehicles in transport sometimes leave the travel lane and encroach onto natural or artificial objects on the roadsides. These types of crashes are called run-off the road crashes, which account for a large proportion of fatalities and severe crashes to vehicle occupants. In the United States, there are about one million such crashes, with roadside features leading to one third of all road fatalities. Traffic barriers could be installed to keep vehicles on the roadways and to prevent vehicles from colliding with obstacles such as trees, boulder, and walls. The installation of traffic barriers would be warranted if the severity of colliding with the barrier would be less severe than colliding with other fix objects on the sides of the roadway. However, injuries and fatalities do occur when vehicle collide with traffic barriers. A comprehensive analysis of traffic barrier features is lacking due to the absence of traffic barrier features data. Previous research has focused on simulation studies or only a general evaluation of traffic barriers, without accounting for different traffic barrier features.MethodThis study is conducted using an extensive traffic barrier features database for the purpose of investigating the impact of different environmental and traffic barrier geometry on this type of crash severity. This study only included data related to two-lane undivided roadway systems, which did not involve median barrier crashes. Crash severity is modeled using a mixed binary logistic regression model in which some parameters are fixed and some are random.ResultsThe results indicated that the effects of traffic barrier height, traffic barrier offset, and shoulder width should not be separated, but rather considered as interactions that impact crash severity. Rollover, side slope height, alcohol involvement, road surface conditions, and posted speed limit are some factors that also impact the severity of these crashes. The effects of gender, truck traffic count, and time of a day were found to be best modeled with random parameters in this study. The effects of these risk factors are discussed in this paper.Practical applicationsResults from this study could provide new guidelines for the design of traffic barriers based upon the identified roadway and traffic barrier characteristics.     

地区性城市群公共安全多灾种综合风险评估研究*

为掌握地区性城市群风险态势,制定风险防控规划,通过综合考虑社会经济基础、历史灾情、灾害链效应、防灾减灾及城际协同救援等因素,构建城市群多灾种综合风险评估模型,以呼包鄂城市群为研究对象开展综合风险评估。结果表明:呼包鄂城市群综合风险处于中低水平,未来需继续加强对洪涝灾害、旱灾、交通事故和矿山安全事故等风险的防范,建立健全各市辖区应急疏散、应急避难管理机制,提高各城市协同救援能力。     

A conceptual framework to understand the role of built environment on traffic safety

IntroductionMany U.S. cities have adopted the Vision Zero strategy with the specific goal of eliminating traffic-related deaths and injuries. To achieve this ambitious goal, safety professionals have increasingly called for the development of a safe systems approach to traffic safety. This approach calls for examining the macrolevel risk factors that may lead road users to engage in errors that result in crashes. This study explores the relationship between built environment variables and crash frequency, paying specific attention to the environmental mediating factors, such as traffic exposure, traffic conflicts, and network-level speed characteristics. Methods: Three years (2011–2013) of crash data from Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, were used to model crash frequency on surface streets as a function of built environment variables at the census block group level. Separate models were developed for total and KAB crashes (i.e., crashes resulting in fatalities (K), incapacitating injuries (A), or non-incapacitating injuries (B)) using the conditional autoregressive modeling approach to account for unobserved heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation present in data. Results: Built environment variables that are found to have positive associations with both total and KAB crash frequencies include population, vehicle miles traveled, big box stores, intersections, and bus stops. On the other hand, the number of total and KAB crashes tend to be lower in census block groups with a higher proportion of two-lane roads and a higher proportion of roads with posted speed limits of 35 mph or less. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the plausible mechanism of how the built environment influences traffic safety. The variables found to be significant are all policy-relevant variables that can be manipulated to improve traffic safety. Practical Applications: The study findings will shape transportation planning and policy level decisions in designing the built environment for safer travels.     

基于模糊数学的石油化工装置HAZOP风险分析技术研究

对传统的HAZOP分析中偏差原因发生可能性进行量化。对于有统计数据的,根据行业数据、公司经验及企业事故建立HAZOP风险分析统计数据库;对于没有统计数据的HAZOP分析偏差原因发生概率,通过专家主观评判,用模糊数理论将专家自然语言转换为模糊数,采用左右模糊排序法将模糊数转换为模糊失效概率值。研究了偏差后果严重程度的划分标准,并根据偏差原因概率和偏差后果严重程度确定风险等级,利用风险矩阵得出偏差风险的大小。从而把HAZOP分析方法从定性改进为半定量的分析方法。据此对石油化工装置进行了HAZOP风险分析。     

Noise and neurotoxic chemical exposure relationship to workplace traumatic injuries: A review

IntroductionMore than 5,000 fatalities and eight million injuries occurred in the workplace in 2007 at a cost of $6 billion and $186 billion, respectively. Neurotoxic chemicals are known to affect central nervous system functions among workers, which include balance and hearing disorders. However, it is not known if there is an association between exposure to noise and solvents and acute injuries. Method: A thorough review was conducted of the literature on the relationship between noise or solvent exposures and hearing loss with various health outcomes. Results: The search resulted in 41 studies. Health outcomes included: hearing loss, workplace injuries, absence from work due to sickness, fatalities, hospital admissions due to workplace accidents, traffic accidents, hypertension, balance, slip, trips, or falls, cognitive measures, or disability retirement. Important covariates in these studies were age of employee, type of industry or occupation, or length of employment. Discussion: Most authors that evaluated noise exposure concluded that higher exposure to noise resulted in more of the chosen health effect but the relationship is not well understood. Studies that evaluated hearing loss found that hearing loss was related to occupational injury, disability retirement, or traffic accidents. Studies that assessed both noise exposure and hearing loss as risk factors for occupational injuries reported that hearing loss was related to occupational injuries as much or more than noise exposure. Evidence suggests that solvent exposure is likely to be related to accidents or other health consequences such balance disorders. Conclusions: Many authors reported that noise exposures and hearing loss, respectively, are likely to be related to occupational accidents. Practical applications: The potential significance of the study is that findings could be used by managers to reduce injuries and the costs associated with those injures.     

Graduated driver licensing and safer driving

Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) inserts between the leaner permit and full licensure an intermediate or "provisional" license that allows novices to drive unsupervised but subject to provisions intended to reduce the risks that accompany entry into highway traffic. Introduction of GDL has been followed by lowered accident rates, resulting from both limiting exposure of novices to unsafe situations and by helping them to deal with them more safely. Sources of safer driving include extended learning, early intervention, contingent advancement, and multistage instruction. To extend the learning process, most GDL systems lengthen the duration of the learner phase and require a specified level of adult-supervised driving. Results indicate that extended learning can reduce accidents substantially if well structured and highly controlled. Early intervention with novice traffic violators have shown both a general deterrent effect upon novice violators facing suspension and a specific effect upon those who have experienced it. Making advancement to full licensure contingent upon a violation-free record when driving on the provisional license has also evidenced a reduction in accidents and violations during that phase of licensure. Multistage instruction attempts development of advanced skills only after novices have had a chance to master more basic skills. Although this element of GDL has yet to be evaluated, research indicates crash reduction is possible in situations where it does not increase exposure to risk. While the various elements of GDL have demonstrated potential benefit in enhancing the safety of novice drivers, considerable improvement in the nature and enforcement of GDL requirements is needed to realize that potential.     

基于N-K模型的海上交通安全风险因素耦合分析

为定量分析海上交通安全风险因素间的影响关系,识别导致海上交通事故的关键因素,分别从单因素、双因素和多因素的角度分析了人、船、环境、管理等风险因素间的耦合关系,运用N-K模型构建了海上交通安全风险耦合度量模型,结合中国海事局、德国联邦海事事故调查局、英国船舶事故调查局和美国国家运输安全委员会等海事调查机构公布的710起海上交通事故,利用所构建的模型计算出不同风险耦合的发生概率和风险值。结果表明:风险耦合因素越多,海上交通事故的发生概率越高;人的因素是引发海上交通事故的重要原因。     

基于ISM的道路交通安全影响因素研究

为提高交通安全管理水平,促进交通的可持续发展。基于解释结构模型原理,综合考虑车、路和环境因素,构建了影响道路交通安全的影响因素结构模型。该模型不但能够弥补分析结构要素之间内在影响机制的不足,而且对于研究道路交通安全结构要素之间的层次性和复杂性有天然的优势。数据来源于由13位专家构成的ISM小组,其中7位为来自高校从事交通安全研究的教授,6位为来自北京市、上海市、广州市、武汉市等交通运输委员会的高层管理者,保证了数据的科学性和可靠性。采用解释结构图分析车、路和环境各影响因素之间的关系,结果表明,众多因素会对道路交通安全产生影响,车辆技术条件、定期检验合格率、车辆救援设备的完备状况、安全设施是制约道路交通安全的直接影响因素,道路限速、道路负荷度、大客(或货车)比例、交通量、交通监控是影响道路交通安全的间接因素,车辆超限(超载)状况、车流密度、道路路面类型、道路设施完备性、天气状况、单向车道数和地形特征是影响道路交通安全的最根本因素。为提高道路交通安全管理水平,首先,应进一步完善《道路交通安全法实施条例》,加强对车辆定期检验的监督;其次,健全道路信息公示制度,提升交通监控水平,引入相关路段道路限速、负荷度、交通量动态信息显示及预警机制;最后,加强车辆超限(超载)及车流密度的监控,健全道路设施的配套制度。     

基于Fuzzy-ANP的空管安全风险评估研究

空中交通管制对于保障飞行安全至关重要,如何进行空管安全风险评估是亟待研究的问题。在分析三角模糊数学和ANP原理的基础上,针对空管安全风险因素相互影响的特点,建立基于Fuzzy-ANP的空管安全风险评估模型。以某空管单位为例进行实证分析,通过计算评价指标权重,找到影响空管安全风险的关键指标。结果表明,影响该空管单位安全的主要因素为管理标准效能、员工培训次数和人员语言及交流沟通状况等,该空管单位应重点改善这3个因素并兼顾其他影响因素。研究表明,Fuzzy-ANP分析法有助于确定安全风险评估的重点。     

Delphi法职业危害风险评估模型及案例研究

为科学合理地进行建设项目职业病危害风险分类,基于系统工程及风险评估的基本原理,采用Delphi法分析和确定了影响职业病危害风险程度的因素,通过构建风险评估指标体系,建立了职业病危害影响因子赋值法(OHFA)定量化风险评估模型。根据对作业场所的危害源、本质及附加防护设施水平、人员接触机会、职业病防治管理等因子的综合分析,预测分析了研究对象的职业病危害的风险程度,为职业病危害风险辨识、风险评估、防治管理及防护设施设计等提供参考。并以某石化行业硫磺回收项目为实例进行应用与验证,得出了该项目的总体职业病危害风险度值为12,风险等级为Ⅰ级,各职业病危害因素的风险度由高到底排序为硫化氢、一氧化碳、二氧化硫、硫磺、高温,其风险分类的关键决定因素为硫化氢。实践表明该方法与专家评估结果及工程实际吻合较好,应用于职业病危害风险评估中可给出定量化的风险分类结果。     

Social environment versus cycling competency predicting risk-taking in 11- to 13-year-old cyclists in The Netherlands

Abstract

Objectives: From age 12 onwards, cycling injuries begin rising in The Netherlands. A known contributing factor is younger children’s underdeveloped competency to deal with complex and hazardous traffic situations, and their exposure to such situations strongly increases after transitioning to secondary school. Little is known about intentional risk-taking as a contributing factor. In this developmental stage, children become increasingly vulnerable because of intentional risk-taking, affecting their safety and health. The incidence, predictors in the child’s social environment, and trends of such risks are systematically monitored; for instance, for alcohol use, smoking, and cyber bullying. Such monitors do not include risky road behavior. This exploratory field study examined the frequency of intentional risky cycling, its relationship with the perceived social environment, and relative to cycling competency measured as the ability to detect emerging hazards quickly.

Methods: Three hundred thirty-five students between 11 and 13 years of age (51% male) completed computerized tests of hazard perception skill and surveys on crashes, risk-taking, peer pressure, perceived risk-taking by parents or friends, and exposure to risky driving as passenger.

Results: Frequent risk-taking was associated with higher crash frequency. Stepwise regression confirmed that children who more often took risks on the road were also more sensitive to peer pressure, had more often been passengers of risky drivers, had parents and friends who exhibited risky behaviors in traffic more often, and perceived hazards as less dangerous but, in contrast to expectations, did not do worse on the detection of hazards. The predictors explained 28% of the variance in total risk-taking but varied from 6 to 20% depending on the specific risk-taking behavior concerned.

Conclusions: At least 20% of children sometimes or more often take risks in traffic. Children who feel peer pressure to behave in a risky manner, observe parents and friends behaving in a risky manner in traffic, and have been exposed as passengers to risky driving more often take risks in traffic themselves. These results provide support for including items on risky road behavior in health monitors and to design interventions that address the risk factors in the child’s perceived social environment.     

Modeling perceived collision risk in port water navigation

An increase in the likelihood of navigational collisions in port waters has put focus on the collision avoidance process in port traffic safety. The most widely used on-board collision-avoidance system is the automatic radar plotting aid which is a passive warning system that triggers an alert based on the pilot’s pre-defined indicators of distance and time proximities at the closest point of approaches in encounters with nearby vessels. To better help pilot in decision making in close quarter situations, collision risk should be considered as a continuous monotonic function of the proximities and risk perception should be considered probabilistically. This paper derives an ordered probit regression model to study perceived collision risks. To illustrate the procedure, the risks perceived by Singapore port pilots were obtained to calibrate the regression model. The results demonstrate that a framework based on the probabilistic risk assessment model can be used to give a better understanding of collision risk and to define a more appropriate level of evasive actions.