Irruptive population dynamics in Yellowstone pronghorn.

Irruptive population dynamics appear to be widespread in large herbivore populations, but there are few empirical examples from long time series with small measurement error and minimal harvests. We analyzed an 89-year time series of counts and known removals for pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in Yellowstone National Park of the western United States during 1918-2006 using a suite of density-dependent, density-independent, and irruptive models to determine if the population exhibited irruptive dynamics. Information-theoretic model comparison techniques strongly supported irruptive population dynamics (Leopold model) and density dependence during 1918-1946, with the growth rate slowing after counts exceeded 600 animals. Concerns about sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) degradation led to removals of >1100 pronghorn during 1947-1966, and counts decreased from approximately 700 to 150. The best models for this period (Gompertz, Ricker) suggested that culls replaced intrinsic density-dependent mechanisms. Contrary to expectations, the population did not exhibit enhanced demographic vigor soon after the termination of the harvest program, with counts remaining between 100 and 190 animals during 1967 1981. However, the population irrupted (Caughley model with a one-year lag) to a peak abundance of approximately 600 pronghorn during 1982-1991, with a slowing in growth rate as counts exceeded 500. Numbers crashed to 235 pronghorn during 1992-1995, perhaps because important food resources (e.g., sagebrush) on the winter range were severely diminished by high densities of browsing elk, mule deer, and pronghorn. Pronghorn numbers remained relatively constant during 1996-2006, at a level (196-235) lower than peak abundance, but higher than numbers following the release from culling. The dynamics of this population supported the paradigm that irruption is a fundamental pattern of growth in many populations of large herbivores with high fecundity and delayed density-dependent effects on recruitment when forage and weather conditions become favorable after range expansion or release from harvesting. Incorporating known removals into population models that can describe a wide range of dynamics can greatly improve our interpretation of observed dynamics in intensively managed populations.     

Application of a spatial meta-population model with stochastic parameters to the management of the invasive grass Nassella trichotoma in North Canterbury, New Zealand

Optimising the management of invasive plants requires the identification of the population size outcomes for alternative management strategies. Mathematical models can be useful tools for making such management strategy comparisons. In this paper we develop a generic landscape meta-population model and apply it to the weedy grass, Nassella trichotoma, an invasive species occupying approximately 800 land parcels, predominantly pastoral farms, in the Hurunui district, North Canterbury, New Zealand. Empirical evidence reveals that this meta-population is currently stable (at a median density of 6 plants ha⁻¹) under a community strategy requiring manual removal (termed ‘grubbing’) of plants annually from all land parcels. Reduction in population size requires an alternative management strategy. Field data, collected over a 12 year period, were used to provide stochastic parameter values for land parcel size, carrying capacity, rates of local population growth and grubbing.The model reveals that at steady state, the most significant contribution to population growth on a land parcel comes from within the land parcel itself; the expected annual per capita growth on an individual land parcel is 4 orders of magnitude greater than the expected annual contribution from plants arising from other land parcels. This result implies that many of the farms currently supporting N. trichotoma may pose little or no threat to, nor are threatened themselves by, other farms infested by the weed. However, the steady state distribution (of the weed's population density) was sensitive to the spread rate, revealing a need for data on this process. It was also sensitive to how any increase in the grubbing rate is distributed; increasing it via a uniform distribution U(0, 1) where all rates between 0 and 100% year⁻¹ are equally probable did not affect the steady state, whereas increasing the rates via the uniform distribution U(0.25, 0.75) resulted in fewer farms with high population densities. In general the model provides a basis for exploring the effects of a wide range of alternative grubbing strategies on population growth in N. trichotoma.     

A test for space limitation with an application to recently settled lobsters

Space limitation in larval settlement can play an important role in the population dynamics of marine species. A novel statistical test for space limitation based on quadrat counts of individuals is described. The test is based on identifying a significant relationship between the relative dispersion of quadrat counts and overall mean density. An application to a time series of quadrat counts of recently settled American lobsters Homarus americanus covering the period 1993–2007 in Casco Bay, Maine, USA (43°45′N; 69°58′W), is presented. For this data set, the null hypothesis that space is not limiting could not be rejected (P = 0.10).     

Development and validation of an individual based Daphnia magna population model: The influence of crowding on population dynamics

An individual-based model was developed to predict the population dynamics of Daphnia magna at laboratory conditions from individual life-history traits observed in experiments with different feeding conditions. Within the model, each daphnid passes its individual life cycle including feeding on algae, aging, growing, developing and – when maturity is reached – reproducing. The modelled life cycle is driven by the amount of ingested algae and the density of the Daphnia population. At low algae densities the population dynamics is mainly driven by food supply, when the densities of algae are high, the limiting factor is “crowding” (a density-dependent mechanism due to chemical substances released by the organisms or physical contact, but independent of food competition).     

A novel participatory and remote-sensing-based approach to mapping annual land use change on forest frontiers in Laos,Myanmar, and Madagascar

Tropical forests are under pressure from both commercial and smallholder agriculture. Forest frontiers are seeing dynamic land use changes that frequently lead to land system regime shifts, posing challenges for the sustainability of entire local social-ecological systems. Monitoring highly dynamic land use change and detecting land system regime shifts is methodologically challenging due to trade-offs between spatial and temporal data resolution. We propose an innovative approach that combines analysis of very-high-resolution satellite imagery with participatory mapping based on workshops and field walks. Applying it in Laos, Myanmar, and Madagascar, we were able to collect annual land use information over several decades. Unlike conventional land use change mapping approaches, which assess only few points in time, our approach provides information at a temporal resolution that enables detection of gradual and abrupt land system regime shifts.     

Modeled historical land use and land cover for the conterminous United States

The landscape of the conterminous United States has changed dramatically over the last 200 years, with agricultural land use, urban expansion, forestry, and other anthropogenic activities altering land cover across vast swaths of the country. While land use and land cover (LULC) models have been developed to model potential future LULC change, few efforts have focused on recreating historical landscapes. Researchers at the US Geological Survey have used a wide range of historical data sources and a spatially explicit modeling framework to model spatially explicit historical LULC change in the conterminous United States from 1992 back to 1938. Annual LULC maps were produced at 250-m resolution, with 14 LULC classes. Assessment of model results showed good agreement with trends and spatial patterns in historical data sources such as the Census of Agriculture and historical housing density data, although comparison with historical data is complicated by definitional and methodological differences. The completion of this dataset allows researchers to assess historical LULC impacts on a range of ecological processes.     

Using and comparing two nonparametric methods (CART and MARS) to model the potential distribution of gullies

Gully erosion represents an important soil degradation process in rangelands. In order to take preventive or control measures and to reduce its environmental damages and economical costs it is useful to localize the points in the landscape where gullying takes place and to determine the importance of the different factors involved. The study is carried out in Extremadura, southwest Spain. The main objectives of this work are: (a) comparing two nonparametric schemes to model the potential distribution of gullies, (b) evaluating the importance of the different factors involved in gullying processes, (c) analyzing the role of prevalence in the success of the model and finally, (d) implementing and mapping the results with the help of a Geographical Information System (GIS). Two methods were used to model the response of a dependent variable (gullying) from a set of independent variables: Classification And Regression Trees (CART) and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). Three different datasets were used; the first one for constructing the model (training dataset) and the others for validating the model (external datasets). These datasets are formed by a target variable (presence or absence of gullies) and a set of independent variables. The dependent variable was obtained by mapping the locations of gullies with the help of a GPS and high resolution aerial ortophotographs. A set of 32 independent variables reflecting topography, lithology, soil type, climate, land use and vegetation cover of each area were used. The performance of the models was evaluated using a non-dependent threshold method: the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. The results showed a better performance of MARS for predicting gullying with areas under the ROC curve of 0.98 and 0.97 for the validation datasets, while CART presented values of 0.96 and 0.66.     

Nonlinear effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a fluctuating population of reindeer

Nonlinear and irregular population dynamics may arise as a result of phase dependence and coexistence of multiple attractors. Here we explore effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a highly fluctuating population of wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) on Svalbard observed over a period of 29 years. Time series analyses revealed that density dependence and the effects of local climate (measured as the degree of ablation [melting] of snow during winter) on numbers were both highly nonlinear: direct negative density dependence was found when the population was growing (Rt > 0) and during phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) characterized by winters with generally high (1979-1995) and low (1996-2007) indices, respectively. A growth-phase-dependent model explained the dynamics of the population best and revealed the influence of density-independent processes on numbers that a linear autoregressive model missed altogether. In particular, the abundance of reindeer was enhanced by ablation during phases of growth (Rt > 0), an observation that contrasts with the view that periods of mild weather in winter are normally deleterious for reindeer owing to icing of the snowpack. Analyses of vital rates corroborated the nonlinearity described in the population time series and showed that both starvation mortality in winter and fecundity were nonlinearly related to fluctuations in density and the level of ablation. The erratic pattern of growth of the population of reindeer in Adventdalen seems, therefore, to result from a combination of the effects of nonlinear density dependence, strong density-dependent mortality, and variable density independence related to ablation in winter.     

Calculating Biologically Accurate Mitigation Credits: Insights from the California Tiger Salamander

Abstract:  Current conservation mitigation plans often fail to ensure full in-kind habitat replacement for endangered species, which suggests the need for improved methods for calculating mitigation credits. A simple, yet biologically meaningful method for calculating mitigation credits would be to let the number of mitigation credits assigned to a parcel of land scale with the reproductive value of the individuals occupying that parcel. This can be accomplished by dividing the population into 2 or more subdivisions with different reproductive values, calculating the densities of these subdivisions as a function of one or more habitat parameters, and then forming a weighted sum of these densities such that each density distribution is weighted by the reproductive value of its respective subdivision of the population. This weighted sum is the density distribution of reproductive value, and by integrating it over a particular parcel, one can determine the mitigation value of that parcel. We carried out this procedure for a population of California tiger salamanders ( Ambystoma californiense ), with distance from breeding site as our habitat parameter and the 3 visually identifiable age classes (adults, juveniles, and metamorphs) as our population subdivisions. This led to a density distribution of reproductive value that decreased exponentially with increasing distance from a breeding site. Mitigation strategies derived from this function will be more likely to ensure the persistence of California tiger salamander populations than current approaches, which assign all land within 1.6 km of a breeding site the same mitigation value. Use of the density distribution of reproductive value as a basis for mitigation plans is a procedure that can be applied to all endangered species, and it should improve the quality of mitigation decisions.     

High genetic variability in a population of Tridacna maxima from the Great Barrier Reef

A population of the bivalve mollusk Tridacna maxima (Röding) from Hron Island, Great Barrier Reef, Australia, was studied by gel electrophoresis, and proved to be highly variable genetically, with an average heterozygosity of about 22%. This compares closely with a population of T. maxima from Enewetak (Eniwetok) Atoll, with an average heterozygosity of about 20%, very high for marine organisms. Enewetak Atoll was the site of a series of nuclear tests. The Heron Island study verifies that the high variability is natural, and supports the hypothesis that species from trophically stable environments tend to be highly variable genetically.     

Vergleich der Raumgliederung Europas mit bestehenden Raumgliederungen – Teil 3

Background, aim and scope The first two articles of this series (Hornsmann et al. 2008; Weustermann et al. 2009) comprised how the Ecological Land Classification of Europe (ELCE) was calculated. Moreover several ecological classes were described exemplarily. In this part 3 of the series the ELCE is compared with two European ecoregionalisations at several levels of differentiation. These are the Digital Map of European ecological regions (DMEER) and the Environmental Stratification of Europe (EnS). In addition the ELCE was opposed to the ecoregionalisation of Germany. The alignment was carried out both functionally and statistically and served as a basis for the examination of the functional consistency of the ELCE. Materials and methods The ecological land classifications were described concerning their input data, the method of derivation and the intended use. The ELCE and the selected three ecoregionalisations were intersected in a GIS and crosstabulated with regard to the acreage of each polygon. These cross tabulations were performed by listing the percentage of ecoregions of e.?g. DMEER to the ecological classes of the ELCE (EC) and vice versa. The similarity of the compared ecoregions was estimated by means of statistics. Results The comparisons show high rates of similarity of the ELCE to the European land classifications. The mean overlap of the EC with the classes of the DMEER is 84 and 69?% vice versa. The EC are covered by the strata of the EnS with 67 and 72?%, respectively. In Germany, ELCE reflects the most important ecological conditions. The mean overlap of the ecoregions in this case is 75 and 80?% vice versa. Discussion The classes of the DMEER show a better overlap of the EC as vice versa due to their larger spatial extent. The main difference between the ELCE and the EnS is based on the procedure of the derivation of the regionalisations. While the classes of the EnS are more differentiated in the South of Europe, the ecoregions of ELCE are smaller and more subdivided in the middle of Europe. The high overlap between the ELCE and the ecoregionalisation of Germany can be indicative for the good account of the ecological structures of the ELCE in the European dimension. Conclusions The ELCE is functionally plausible and a useful complement to the existing land classifications of Europe. Nevertheless, it cannot substitute land classifications on the national level calculated with more detailed input data. The ELCE can be used testing the representativity of environmental monitoring networks in Europe. Recommendations In future, the ELCE should be compared with other national landscape classifications. A new calculation of ELCE would only be useful after the development of a highly powerful derivation method and on the basis of more detailed input data. Moreover, due to the observed climate change in the past 20 years, up-to-date data on climate should be used for the calculations. Perspectives The ELCE could be proven to be functionally consistent. Therefore the fourth article will focus on the investigation of the landscape representativity of environmental monitoring networks on the basis of the ELCE.     

Effects of cost metric on cost‐effectiveness of protected‐area network design in urban landscapes

A common goal in conservation planning is to acquire areas that are critical to realizing biodiversity goals in the most cost‐effective manner. The way monetary acquisition costs are represented in such planning is an understudied but vital component to realizing cost efficiencies. We sought to design a protected‐area network within a forested urban region that would protect 17 birds of conservation concern. We compared the total costs and spatial structure of the optimal protected‐area networks produced using three acquisition‐cost surrogates (area, agricultural land value, and tax‐assessed land value). Using the tax‐assessed land values there was a 73% and 78% cost savings relative to networks derived using area or agricultural land value, respectively. This cost reduction was due to the considerable heterogeneity in acquisition costs revealed in tax‐assessed land values, especially for small land parcels, and the corresponding ability of the optimization algorithm to identify lower‐cost parcels for inclusion that had equal value to our target species. Tax‐assessed land values also reflected the strong spatial differences in acquisition costs (US$0.33/m²–$55/m²) and thus allowed the algorithm to avoid inclusion of high‐cost parcels when possible. Our results add to a nascent but growing literature that suggests conservation planners must consider the cost surrogate they use when designing protected‐area networks. We suggest that choosing cost surrogates that capture spatial‐ and size‐dependent heterogeneity in acquisition costs may be relevant to establishing protected areas in urbanizing ecosystems.     

On the development of a Gyrodinium aureolum occurrence on the Swedish west coast in 1982

In autumn 1982, the development of dinoflagellate occurrence on the Swedish west coast was followed at frequent intervals. A close connection was found between inflow of high salinity water (>27‰ S) of Skagerrak origin and occurrence of Gyrodinium aureolum Hulburt. The Jutland current was probably responsible for the distribution of the algae to the Swedish and Norwegian coasts. Different developmental stages of the G. aureolum population were identified. In 1982 available nitrogen seemed to be the limiting factor for the growth of the G. aureolum population.     

Adaptations to semi-terrestrial life in embryos of East African mangrove crabs: a comparative approach

In this experimental study, we compared the embryonic respiration rate in air and water of six East African sesarmid species with intertidal, supratidal and arboreal habits, to highlight possible adaptations in embryonic metabolism to their different lifestyles. The embryos of all analysed crabs showed bimodal respiration, but we did not find a trend towards an enhanced embryonic oxygen uptake in air from the intertidal to the arboreal and supratidal species. However, the late-stage embryos of the most land-adapted species, Chiromantes spp., showed an enhanced metabolism when immersed in sea water that we interpreted as an adaptive recovery mechanism to cope with the storage of by-products due to marine-based metabolic pathways during long emersion periods. Thus, we showed that the embryos of land-adapted species, although still strongly water dependent, are well adapted to semi-terrestrial habitats and represent a minor limiting factor for females, which are not restricted in their emersion period by the oxygen requirements of their embryos.     

Reserve Coverage and Requirements in Relation to Partitioning and Generalization of Land Classes: Analyses for Western New South Wales

The extent to which existing conservation reserves cover or represent the different land classes in a region depends on the scale at which those land classes are defined. In a previous review of regional studies we could not separate the influence on reserve coverage from aspects of scale of classification or mapping. In this study we measured the influence of three aspects of scale on the coverage of existing reserves and the area of new reserves required to represent all land classes. The aspects of scale we used were agglomerative (bottom-up) partitioning, divisive (top-down) partitioning, and generalization of the polygons representing discrete map units. The analyses were based on two existing classifications of a large region. One of these was originally produced at two scales of divisive partitioning. We modified the second classification to produce wide differences in the two other aspects of scale. For all aspects of scale the results confirm that existing reserves in the region tend to represent more coarse- than fine-scale classes, but this depends on the criteria used to determine when classes are "represented." For all aspects of scale, larger total areas of new reserves are needed to represent fine-scale rather than coarse-scale land classes. This trend holds regardless of the minimum proportional area of each land class to be represented but varies with the size of the sites considered reserves. The results reinforce the scale-dependence of assessments of reserve coverage and establish the scale-dependence of assessments of reserve requirements. They also indicate that comparisons of coverage and requirements between regions or in the same region through time must be standardized for type and scale of classification.     

Patterns of co-occurrence and interactions between age classes of the common triplefin,Forsterygion lapillum

Many marine organisms have pelagic larval stages that settle into benthic habitats occupied by older individuals; however, a mechanistic understanding of intercohort interactions remains elusive for most species. Patterns of spatial covariation in the densities of juvenile and adult age classes of a small temperate reef fish, the common triplefin (Forsterygion lapillum), were evaluated during the recruitment season (Feb–Mar, 2011) in Wellington, New Zealand (41°17′S, 174°46′E). The relationship between juvenile and adult density among sites was best approximated by a dome-shaped curve, with a negative correlation between densities of juveniles and adults at higher adult densities. The curve shape was temporally variable, but was unaffected by settlement habitat type (algal species). A laboratory experiment using a “multiple-predator effects” design tested the hypothesis that increased settler mortality in the presence of adults (via enhanced predation risk or cannibalism) contributed to the observed negative relationship between juveniles and adults. Settler mortality did not differ between controls and treatments that contained either one (p = 0.08) or two (p = 0.09) adults. However, post hoc analyses revealed a significant positive correlation between the mean length of juveniles used in experimental trials and survival of juveniles in these treatments, suggesting that smaller juveniles may be vulnerable to cannibalism. There was no evidence for risk enhancement or predator interference when adults were present alongside a heterospecific predator (F. varium). These results highlight the complex nature of intercohort relationships in shaping recruitment patterns and add to the growing body of literature recognizing the importance of age class interactions.     

Habitat mapping using machine learning-extended kernel-based reclassification of an Ikonos satellite image

The spatial resolution of satellite imagery suitable for earth resources studies has improved from 80 m (Landsat-MSS, launched in 1972) to 0.6 m (QuickBird, launched in 2001). The conventional pixel-based methods developed for medium resolution satellite images are not suitable for classification of very high spatial resolution images, because the spectral responses of particular habitat classes are much more variable. On the other hand, in the original Barnsley–Barr kernel-based reclassification algorithm not only the spectral information of a pixel but also the textural information in the vicinity of the pixel is used when the pixel labeling decision is made. The first step of the kernel reclassification algorithm is to perform an initial classification of the original image. In the second step, the adjacency-event matrices are computed for each pixel according to co-occurrence frequencies of the initial classes in the kernel window. The degree of matching between an adjacency-event matrix corresponding to specific pixel and the set of class-specific template matrices produced during training is the criterion for pixel re-labeling. We extend the original kernel-based reclassification algorithm with a decision tree-based reclassification, simultaneously taking into account the class-specific similarity images, which are a side-product of the original algorithm. The advantage of decision tree-extended approach over the original approach seems to be the ability of the former to consider more input information, thus increasing the Kappa classification accuracy for an Ikonos image of our study area from 0.56 to 0.60, using a nomenclature containing 10 habitat classes.     

土地生态系统健康研究的主要内容及面临的问题

生态系统健康研究是资源环境可持续利用研究中的一个热点。在归纳土地生态系统具有尺度的宏观性、对象的地域性、空间的开放性和动态性、问题的复杂性等特征的基础上，提出了开展土地生态系统健康研究的内容应包括土地生态系统健康的机理、评价和管理等三个主要方面。结合我国的土地资源状况，指出我国开展土地生态系统健康研究面临着包括人口密度过大，土地资源压力大；我国地域辽阔，气候类型多样，社会经济区域发展不均衡，全国各地土地生态系统的区域分异性很强等主要问题。