Response to “Comment on ‘Use of local tidal records to identify relative sea level change: accuracy and error for decision makers’ by Powell VA, McGlashan DJ, Duck RW (2012) J Coast Conserv” by Rickards L, Brown J, Hibbert A, Woodworth P, Plater AJ (2013) J Coast Conserv

Tide gauge data have become increasing accessible to non-specialists through the availability of records over the Internet. Our original paper, “Use of local tidal records to identify relative sea level change: accuracy and error for decision makers”, focused on highlighting the potential pitfalls in tide gauge data manipulation that non-specialists may not be aware of. Since publication, Rickards et al. have made helpful observations and raised queries about certain elements within our paper, which we respond to here.     

Sea-level rise and coastal vulnerability: an assessment of Andhra Pradesh coast,India through remote sensing and GIS

The eustatic sea-level rise due to global warming is predicted to be about 18 to 59 cm by the 2100 (IPCC 2007), which necessitates identification and protection of vulnerable sections of coasts. Assessment of vulnerability level of Andhra Pradesh (AP) coast as an example is demonstrated in this study using five physical variables, namely coastal geomorphology, coastal slope, shoreline change, mean spring tide range, and significant wave height. A coastal vulnerability index was prepared by integrating the differentially weighted rank values of the five variables, based on which the coastline is segmented into low-, moderate-, high-, and very high risk categories. About 43% of the 1,030-km-long AP coast is under very high-risk, followed by another 35% under high-risk if the sea level rises by ~0.6 m displacing more than 1.29 million people living within 2.0 m elevation in 282 villages in the region.     

Predictors of specialist avifaunal decline in coastal marshes

Coastal marshes are one of the world's most productive ecosystems. Consequently, they have been heavily used by humans for centuries, resulting in ecosystem loss. Direct human modifications such as road crossings and ditches and climatic stressors such as sea‐level rise and extreme storm events have the potential to further degrade the quantity and quality of marsh along coastlines. We used an 18‐year marsh‐bird database to generate population trends for 5 avian species (Rallus crepitans, Tringa semipalmata semipalmata, Ammodramus nelsonii subvirgatus, Ammodramus caudacutus, and Ammodramus maritimus) that breed almost exclusively in tidal marshes, and are potentially vulnerable to marsh degradation and loss as a result of anthropogenic change. We generated community and species trends across 3 spatial scales and explored possible drivers of the changes we observed, including marsh ditching, tidal restriction through road crossings, local rates of sea‐level rise, and potential for extreme flooding events. The specialist community showed negative trends in tidally restricted marshes (?2.4% annually from 1998 to 2012) but was stable in unrestricted marshes across the same period. At the species level, we found negative population trends in 3 of the 5 specialist species, ranging from ?4.2% to 9.0% annually. We suggest that tidal restriction may accelerate degradation of tidal marsh resilience to sea‐level rise by limiting sediment supply necessary for marsh accretion, resulting in specialist habitat loss in tidally restricted marshes. Based on our findings, we predict a collapse of the global population of Saltmarsh Sparrows (A. caudacutus) within the next 50 years and suggest that immediate conservation action is needed to prevent extinction of this species. We also suggest mitigation actions to restore sediment supply to coastal marshes to help sustain this ecosystem into the future.     

Effect of predicted sea level rise on tourism facilities along Ghana’s Accra coast

Recent sea-level rise has mostly been attributed to global warming and this process is expected to continue for centuries. The extent of the impact of sea level rise on tourism in Ghana is unknown though there are predictions that some prominent tourism facilities are at risk. This paper assessed the potential impact of enhanced sea level rise (ESLR) for different IPCC scenarios on tourism facilities along the coast of Accra. Shorelines for 1974 and 2005 were extracted from orthophotos and topographic maps, and vulnerability for tourism facilities estimated. Mean sea level measurements indicated an average rise of 3.3 mm/year, while the shoreline eroded by as much as 0.86 m/year. Predictions for Ghana showed 10 cm, 23.4 cm and 36.4 cm sea level rise for 2020, 2060 and 2100 respectively with 1990 as base year. Modelled predictions for the years 2020, 2060 and 2100 based on A2 (enhanced regional economic growth) and B2 (more environmentally focused) IPCC scenarios indicated that 13 tourism facilities are at risk to sea level rise. Out of the total number of tourism facilities at risk, 31 % cannot physically withstand the event of sea level rise hazard. In terms of socio-economic vulnerability, accommodation facilities are the most susceptible. Salinization and sanitation problems along the coast will adversely affect tourism.     

Predicting the spatial distribution of mangroves in a South African estuary in response to sea level rise,substrate elevation change and a sea storm event

The spatial distribution of mangroves in the Mngazana Estuary under sea level rise induced by climate change, together with different substrate elevation change scenarios was predicted for 2020, 2050 and 2100. The present inundation frequency tolerance range was from 0.8 to 31.2 %, equivalent to substrate elevation thresholds of 1.1 and 1.7 m amsl. These thresholds were measured by field surveys and analysis of a gauge station situated near the mouth of the estuary. The predictions were based on the assumption that the inundation frequency tolerance range of mangrove stands remains constant in the future. Through the use of a digital elevation model an initial increase of 2.10 ha year^?1 was found in mangrove area between present and 2020 (from 122.6 to 143.6 ha). This was due to habitat becoming available that is currently too compacted for seedling establishment to occur. This compaction resulted from human and cattle traffic for grazing. Thereafter there would be a mean loss of 0.66 ha year^?1 from 2020 through 2100. Landward migration of mangroves would not take place due to the elevation limit of adjacent non-mangrove areas. In addition, the loss rate would increase to 1.01 ha year^?1 under insufficient sediment accretion, but would decrease to 0.18 ha year^?1 under thriving mangroves condition. The analysis of sea storm event in September 2008 showed that local water level increased by 28 cm and maximum affected area was 87.0 ha (about 71 % of mangrove stands). The inundation continued over 5 days. The results indicated that the combination impact of sea level rise, substrate elevation change and sea storm would possibly be a threat to tropical African estuaries with large flat intertidal areas and mangroves.     

Modeling the interaction between tides and storm surges for the Taiwan coast

An unstructured grid, two-dimensional hydrodynamic model was established and applied to the coast of Taiwan to investigate the tide-surge interaction. Tidal elevations at the open boundaries coupled with a global ocean tidal model and the meteorological conditions using a cyclone model are used to drive the model. The model was calibrated and verified with the observed tidal levels at six tidal stations for seven typhoon events to ascertain the capability and feasibility of the model. The results show reasonable agreement between the simulated and observed tidal levels. The validated model was then applied to probe the influence of tide-surge interaction on phase, water levels, and storm surge height. We found that the tide-surge interaction influenced both the magnitude and timing of the surge, which depended on the typhoon path. The storm surge heights at different tidal stations were significantly influenced by wind stresses and directions. The water level rise due to the storm surge during high tide was greater at neap tide than at spring tide. Changing tidal ranges altered the prediction of the surge enough to induce the changes in peak water levels.     

Are Wadden Sea tidal systems with a higher tidal range more resilient against sea level rise?

Accelerated sea level rise may have serious implications for the Wadden Sea ecosystem in its present state. If sediment accumulation rates on the extensive intertidal flats stay behind sea level rise, the flats will eventually submerge. Drowning of the flats has negative consequences for nature conservation and for coastal risk management. Based upon an evaluation of steady state relations for Wadden Sea tidal basins, Hofstede (Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie 59(3): 377-391, 2015) postulated that the capacity of these basins to balance sea level rise by accumulation on intertidal flats seems positively related to mean tidal range. In the present study, morphodynamical simulations with a numerical model were performed for two tidal basins in the German Wadden Sea to verify the empirically established hypothesis. The following conclusions are established. Larger mean tidal range improves the capacity of Wadden Sea tidal basins to balance sea level rise. Wadden Sea intertidal flats are effective sediment sinks and seem quite resilient against (higher rates of) sea level rise. Finally, subtidal gullies may constitute a significant sediment source for accumulation on intertidal flats in response to sea level rise. With respect to the limited comparability of the two investigated tidal systems, morphodynamical modelling of all Wadden Sea tidal systems should be conducted.     

The German Wadden Sea coast: reclamation and environmental protection

Why did the reclamation of tidal marshes along the German Wadden Sea coast continue until the 1990s while the country is known for its awareness of the need for environmental protection? A study of the recently adopted reclamation policy in Schleswig-Holstein indicates that since the 1960s, the primary objective of embankments along the coast has been for coastal defence. While focusing their attention on this policy from the late 1970s, environmentalists have been objecting against any reclamation projects. Their main argument has been the ecological richness of the tidal marshes and the negative effects of embankments on the Wadden Sea. During the 1990s, objections from environmentalists, together with the fruition of the Coastal Defence Plan, recent economic factors, new legislation and sea level rise have led to a gradual decline of reclamation projects along the German Wadden Sea coast.     

Sea level rise and eelgrass (Zostera marina) production: A spatially explicit relative elevation model for Padilla Bay, WA

The dynamics that govern the elevation of a coastal wetland relative to sea level are complex, involving non-linear feedbacks among opposing processes. Changes in the balance between these processes can result in significant alterations to vegetation communities that are adapted to a specific range of water levels. Given that current sedimentation rates in Padilla Bay, Washington are likely less than historical levels and that eustatic sea level rise is accelerating, the extensive Zostera marina (eelgrass) meadows in the bay may be at risk of eventual submergence. We developed a spatially explicit relative elevation model and used it to project changes in the productivity and distribution of eelgrass in Padilla Bay over the next century. The model is mechanistic and incorporates many of the processes and feedbacks that govern coastal wetland elevation change. Accretion estimates made using ²¹⁰Pb dating of sediment cores, sediment characteristics measured within cores, and eelgrass productivity and decomposition data were used to initialize and calibrate the model. Validation was performed using an elevation change rate measured with a network of surface elevation tables. Both the field data and model simulations revealed a net accretion deficit for the bay. Simulations using current rates of sea level rise indicated an overall expansion of eelgrass within Padilla Bay over the next century as it migrates from the center of the bay shoreward.     

上海滨岸带生态环境问题及调控对策

结合长江口上海滨岸带资源与环境现状,重点分析了上海滨岸地区在经济快速发展过程中面临的主要生态环境问题;指出上海滨岸地区面临风暴潮、海平面上升、地面沉降等主要自然灾害;滨岸水环境质量恶化,重金属等污染物的生态风险不容忽视;潮滩过渡围垦导致湿地生态系统破坏严重。探讨了污水排放等人类活动对滨岸带生态环境的影响。此外,从战略环境评价、污染控制、生态恢复、行政法规和管理等方面,提出了相应的调控对策。     

Shoreline changes in response to sea level rise along Digha Coast,Eastern India: an analytical approach of remote sensing,GIS and statistical techniques

Shoreline is one of the rapidly changing linear features of the coastal zone which is dynamic in nature. The issue of shoreline changes due to sea level rise over the next century has increasingly become a major social, economic and environmental concern to a large number of countries along the coast, where it poses a serious problem to the environment and human settlements. As a consequence, some coastal scientists have advocated analyzing and predicting coastal changes on a more local scale. The present study demonstrates the potential of remote sensing, geospatial and statistical techniques for monitoring the shoreline changes and sea level rise along Digha coast, the eastern India. In the present study, multi-resolution and multi temporal satellite images of Landsat have been utilized to demarcate shoreline positions during 1972, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010. The statistical techniques, linear regression, end-point rate and regression coefficient (R²) have been used to find out the shoreline change rates and sea level change during the periods of 1972–2010. Monthly and annual mean sea level data for three nearby station viz., Haldia, Paradip and Gangra from 1972 to 2006 have been used to this study. Finally, an attempt has been made to find out interactive relationship between the sea level rise and shoreline change of the study area. The results of the present study show that combined use of satellite imagery, sea level data and statistical methods can be a reliable method in correlating shoreline changes with sea level rise.     

GIS-based risk assessment for the Nile Delta coastal zone under different sea level rise scenarios case study: Kafr EL Sheikh Governorate, Egypt

Sea level changes are caused by several natural phenomena, including mainly ocean thermal expansion, glacial melt from Greenland and Antarctica. It was estimated, in this respect, that global average sea level rose, during the 20th Century, by at least 10 cm. This trend is expected to continue and most likely accelerated during the 21st Century due to human-induced global warming. Global average sea level is expected to rise, by the year 2100, due to global warming between 0.18 and 0.59 cm. Such a rise in sea-level will significantly impact coastal areas due to the high concentration of natural and socioeconomic activities and assets located along the coast. The northern coastal zone of the Nile Delta is generally low land, and is consequently vulnerable to direct and indirect impacts of sea level rise (SLR) due to climate changes, particularly inundation. Despite the uncertainty associated with developed scenarios for climate change and expected SLR, there is a need, according to precautionary approach, to assess and analyze the impacts of SLR. Such an assessment, on one hand, can assist in formulating effective adaptation options to specific, sometimes localized, impacts of SLR. On the other hand, such an analysis can contribute significantly to the development of integrated approach to deal with the impacts of SLR. The objective of this paper is to assess and spatially analyze the risks of expected sea level rise (SLR), in particular inundation, and its implications up to the year 2100 in Kafr El Sheikh Governorate, Egypt, using GIS techniques. For that purpose, a GIS was developed for the study area and then utilized to identify the spatial extent of those areas that would be vulnerable to inundation by SLR. Moreover, various land uses/land covers susceptible to such inundation were identified. Results indicate that more than 22.59 % and 24.50 % of the total area of Kafr El Sheikh Governorate would be vulnerable to inundation under B1 and A1FI (IPCC most optimistic and pessimistic scenarios), respectively. No significant difference was noticed between the two scenarios in terms of spatial extent of SLR impacts. It was also found that a significant proportion of these areas were found to be currently either undeveloped or wetlands. Moreover, it was found that about 90.13 % of the vulnerable areas are actually less exposed to the risks of SLR due to the existence of a number of man-made features, not intended as protection measures, e.g. International Coastal Highway, that can be used to limit the areas vulnerable to inundations by SLR.     

Processus advectifs et répartition du zooplancton dans un fjord

In order to study the influence of advective processes on the zooplankton distribution in a shallow sill-fjord, we examined the temporal variations (tidal and seasonal) of currents, density, abundance and composition of zooplankton in the Saguenay fjord, Québec, Canada, in August 1978 and October 1979. Our results demonstrate the existence of a regular exchange of water (every tidal cycle) between the St. Lawrence estuary and the two outer basins of the Saguenay fjord which is characterized by an important transport of mesoplankton from the estuary into the deep waters of the Saguenay during the rising tide and from the surface waters of the Saguenay to those of the estuary during falling tide. Variations of abundance and composition of zooplankton in the outer basin are therefore mainly controlled by advective processes. The plankton community of the downstream region of the fjord is strongly influenced by variations of abundance and composition taking place in the estuary, and the establishment and development of local populations of zooplankton are made difficult. In the upstream region of the fjord, the advective processes are less intense and endogeneous mesoplankton populations thrive under local temperature conditions.     

Climate change adaptation in the Schleswig-Holstein sector of the Wadden Sea: an integrated state governmental strategy

Anthropogenic climate change constitutes a main challenge for the Wadden Sea. Accelerated sea level rise, increasing temperatures and changing wind climate may strongly alter present structures and functions of the ecosystem with negative consequences both for nature conservation and for coastal risk management. Being aware of these challenges, Schleswig-Holstein State Government decided to establish an integrated climate change adaptation strategy for the Schleswig-Holstein sector of the Wadden Sea. The strategy was adopted in June 2015. It aims at the long-term maintenance of present functions and structures as well as the integrity of the Wadden Sea ecosystem in a changing climate. The strategy was prepared by a project group consisting of representatives from State authorities as well as from nature conservation organisations and local institutions. First outcome of the strategy is that extra adaptation measures will not be necessary in the coming decades. However, pending on the future rate of sea level rise, shoreline erosion and sediment deficits in the Wadden Sea will increase and sooner or later drowning of tidal flats and terrestrial habitats like beaches, primary dunes and salt marshes will start. At the time when management measures to counteract the negative developments become expedient from a nature conservation viewpoint as well as for coastal risk management, adequate actions with minimized ecological interferences are possible. It is assumed that balancing the sediment deficits as the main adaptation measure may be implemented most efficiently by concentrating sediment suppletion at locations where natural forces organize redistribution in the Wadden Sea. Local technical coastal risk management measures like the strengthening of sea defences will, nevertheless, remain necessary as well.     

Turbulence measurements in a small subtropical estuary under king tide conditions

In natural waterways and estuaries, the understanding of turbulent mixing is critical to the knowledge of sediment transport, stormwater runoff during flood events, and release of nutrient-rich wastewater into ecosystems. In the present study, some field measurements were conducted in a small subtropical estuary with micro-tidal range and semi-diurnal tides during king tide conditions: i.e., the tidal range was the largest for both 2009 and 2010. The turbulent velocity measurements were performed continuously at high-frequency (50Hz) for 60?h. Two acoustic Doppler velocimeters (ADVs) were sampled simultaneously in the middle estuarine zone, and a third ADV was deployed in the upper estuary for 12?h only. The results provided an unique characterisation of the turbulence in both middle and upper estuarine zones under the king tide conditions. The present observations showed some marked differences between king tide and neap tide conditions. During the king tide conditions, the tidal forcing was the dominant water exchange and circulation mechanism in the estuary. In contrast, the long-term oscillations linked with internal and external resonance played a major role in the turbulent mixing during neap tides. The data set showed further that the upper estuarine zone was drastically less affected by the spring tide range: the flow motion remained slow, but the turbulent velocity data were affected by the propagation of a transient front during the very early flood tide motion at the sampling site.     

Application of a coastal model to simulate present and future inundation and aid coastal management

This paper describes the application of coastal hydro-informatic modelling (using the TELEMAC Modelling System) to address management issues arising from projected hydrodynamical and morphological changes within a shallow, sandy estuarine environment. The model incorporates the complex interaction of ocean, terrestrial and atmospheric processes. The case study of the Dyfi Estuary, on the west coast of Wales, is highlighted here. As sea levels have risen locally and are predicted to rise further, a National Nature Reserve (Borth Bog), which has been reclaimed from tidal waters by embankments, will be at increasing risk from flooding episodes due to overtopping of these embankments at high tide. Present and predicted future tidal-fluvial scenarios have been modelled in the Dyfi Estuary in order to estimate the potential for flooding. In addition, areas of greatest velocity change and potential for sediment erosion/accretion have been identified. A further process that has been investigated is how salt marsh migration is affected by sea-level rise. This case study exemplifies some fundamental and complex physical processes inherent to estuaries, and shows how different management options can be assessed, before their implementation, through a modelling approach.     

Effects of recreational disturbance on tidal wetlands: supporting the importance of undisturbed roosting sites for waterbird conservation

In coastal wetlands, the increasing level of disturbance from recreational activities could threaten waterbird populations, which overall are showing decreasing trends. Despite the crucial contribution of waterbirds to biodiversity, empirical studies measuring the effects of disturbance on them remain scarce, especially in terms of the impact upon their roosting sites. We developed an experimental treatment to measure the effects of a pedestrian walking on a site used by overwintering waterbirds in a wetland of international importance. We registered 156 events (88 at high tide) of flushing birds, totaling 4,018 individuals. Each treatment drove the flushing of 1?C5?% of the wintering populations of nearly all species present during high tide. In addition, 1.5?% of the Eurasian curlew wintering population was driven to change site. All the effects were found to be reduced during other tidal periods. Therefore, allowing recreational use in a previously undisturbed area can systematically increase daily energy expenditure of significant percentages of different waterbird populations during high tide, and even cause birds to avoid a site completely. These effects will probably be even worse given that our results were derived only from a disturbance source of low magnitude and frequency. We recommend that, prior to developing recreational areas close to the shoreline, coastal wetland managers should study the habitat use of waterbirds during high tide in relation to total waterbird populations using the wetland.     

Seasonal and daily dynamics in pelagic larvae of marine shelf bottom invertebrates in nearshore waters of Kandalaksha Bay (White Sea)

Seasonal and daily population dynamics have been studied in pelagic larvae of littoral and upper-sublittoral bottom invertebrates in the plankton of the shallow, narrow Velikaya Salma Sound, which connects the inner and outer areas of the Kandalaksha Bay in the western part of the White Sea. Hydrologically, this Sound is characterised by a clearly defined cycle of great seasonal variations in water temperature coupled with more or less stable salinities and regular, pronounced semi-diurnal tides corresponding to daily and lunar monthly tidal cycles. The seasonal dynamics of larvae in the Sound reflect differences in occurrence of spawning periods in local waters of various species and systematic groups of bottom invertebrates. These differences are caused by the correlation of spawning periods of local species of different zoogeographical origin with the different water temperatures. They reflect, also, lunar periodicities of spawning and larval hatchings. The daily dynamics of larval abundancies are related to the daily spawning rhythms of many species with pelagic development affected by the daily tidal cycles of the Velikaya Salma Sound. A daily invasion of the Sound by pelagic larvae of bottom invertebrates from the inner and the outer parts of the Kandalaksha Bay occurs at ebb tide, and also at flood tide; the rhythms of the invasions coincide with the daily spawning rhythms of the Sound's invertebrates. From literature data summarized by Mileikovsky (1958a, b, 1960a, b, c, 1961, 1965, 1968, 1970), it is concluded that seasonal, lunar and daily (tidal) reproductive periodicities for the marine shallowshelf bottom invertebrates concerned, follow world-wide ecological patterns. It is evident that the effects of these rhythms upon the population dynamics of pelagic invertebrate larvae, as demonstrated by the present data on the Velikaya Salma Sound (White Sea), must also follow world-wide regularities.     

Implications of mangrove dynamics for private and use in bragança, north Brazil: a case study

This work analyses effects of recent variations in the tidal inundation frequency in a mangrove ecosystem in the Bragança peninsula, North Brazil, and its implications for land occupation and use. Field data, time series of remote sensing images and local legislation were analysed focusing on the potential socio-economic impact of a changing environmental setting due to a rise in relative sea level. In the investigated period (1972–1997), vegetation changes along the coastline indicate net losses of mangrove coverage. In the central part of the peninsula, a topographically higher herbaceous plain constituting part of a farm presents an active progression of mangrove forest into an area previously dominated by grasses and herbs. This area measured 8.8 km² in 1972 but was gradually reduced to 5.6 km² in 1997, while progressively replaced by a monospecific stand of the black mangrove,Avicennia germinans. A linear extrapolation indicates that the elevated plain may be completely covered by mangrove by 2035. Current Brazilian legislation prohibits the extraction of mangrove trees without an officially approved management plan. Thus, the usable area of the farm has suffered a reduction by ca. 36% over 25 yr and we predict that is could be entirely replaced by mangroves in the next 35 yr. In this case study, legislation and ecosystem characteristics are analysed and a management plan discussed which could represent income alternatives for affected resource users at the local and regional level.