异常环流背景下贺兰山地形对8.21特大致洪暴雨的影响分析

利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP再分析资料对2016年8月21日傍晚到夜间贺兰山沿山特大致洪极值暴雨展开研究,分析了异常大气环流形势及其影响,并利用天气研究和预报模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model)进行数值模拟和地形敏感性试验,研究了贺兰山地形对暴雨过程的影响。结果表明:超强厄尔尼诺结束后的盛夏,大气环流形势发展异常,8月南亚高压和副热带高压异常偏强,西北地区东部处于高温、高湿、高能控制,副高的快速进退和冷平流的入侵,触发暖湿不稳定能量强烈聚集与快速释放,导致特大暴雨的爆发。其发生在200hPa高空急流分流区即强辐散区、中空西南气流的高温高湿区、低空偏南急流轴左侧流场最大弯曲处的强暖平流区、850hPa偏东大风速轴南侧的风速辐合区,天气尺度强迫作用相对较弱的环境中,500hPa短波槽与700hPa、850hPa低涡切变线和偏南偏东急流以及地面气旋式切变辐合线共同作用是其发生的主要影响系统。贺兰山地形对特大暴雨的发生有明显的增幅效应,主要是贺兰山地形阻挡与强迫抬升作用,促使低涡切变强烈发展从而影响了降水范围、强降水落区及其中心位置等。     

西江年最高水位的神经网络预报模型

对西江洪水发生的特征进行分析表明，洪水发生频率高，具有明显阶段性特征，并与流域面雨量密切相关。利用前期环流场、海表温度（SST）场及环流特征量资料选择初选预报因子，然后对初选预报因子作EOF分解构造综合预报因子，结合人工神经网络方法建立了西江年最高水位预报模型，并对预报模型进行独立样本试验。结果表明，该预报模型对历史样本拟合精度高，试报效果明显好于传统的逐步回归模型，可在汛期预测业务中应用。     

汉江上游暴雨洪水特性研究

汉江是长江的最大支流。由于汉江上游特殊的地理位置、地形条件和大气环流条件，暴雨洪灾频发。汉江上游是陕西省重点防洪河段之一,中下游地区地处江汉平原．是湖北省重要的工农业生产基地．防洪作用更为重要。通过对汉江上游暴雨洪水特性的研究分析，提出了防御措施．可为防汛部门有效防御汉江上游洪水、水资源部门充分利用汉江水资源提供参考。     

我国小麦白粉病发生流行的长期气象预测研究

确定了影响我国小麦白粉病发病流行的9项关键环流特征因子指标,其中4项较好地表征了我国小麦白粉病发病面积轻、偏轻、偏重、重4个级别的气候特征.以关键环流特征因子距平为预测因子,建立的上年10月初、当年4月初制作预报的2个全国小麦白粉病发病面积距平预测模式历史拟合效果较好,对2004年的外延预报准确率分别达87.5%和98.2%.通过分析关键大气环流特征因子对我国小麦白粉病发生流行的可能影响机制,发现前期关键环流特征因子对我国小麦白粉病的发生流行具有很好的气候背景指示效应.     

长江中游致洪暴雨天气气候特征

本文从建国以来长江中游地区发生的所有暴雨事件中选出四个典型年，并从这些典型年的暴雨个例中得出暴雨和大暴雨和大暴雨的分布范围和暴雨特征，由此而造成的特大洪水情况，以及洪涝灾害对国民经济的影响。最后应用天气归纳方法分析了暴雨的大尺度环流背景。     

陕南近期两次特大暴雨天气成因的对比分析

采用天气动力诊断分析方法,对陕西秦岭山脉南麓两次小范围特大暴雨（2002年6月8日佛坪特大暴雨与2003年8月29日宁陕特大暴雨） 发生的环流背景、主要影响系统、垂直环流和热力学特征等进行对比分析,指出在相对稳定的环流形势下,高空急流与低空急流耦合形成低层辐合与高空辐散垂直结构与不稳定的大气层结是小范围特大暴雨形成的主要原因之一.     

基于致洪暴雨预报的三峡水库洪水预估系统及试验评估

介绍了一种基于致洪暴雨预报,结合水文控制站水位、流量信息,运用多元统计回归模型开展的三峡水库洪水程度分级预估的方法.通过历史回代和2010、2011年预估试验应用表明:该预估系统稳定可靠,适用于三峡水库洪水程度预估,对三峡上游暴雨引发的洪水程度能进行准确的预估,而且对三峡上游支流的暴雨洪水预测也有一定的预见性.应用该系统三峡水库的洪水预见期可达3d以上,能为防汛决策和三峡水库防洪调度赢得时间.     

云南滑坡泥石流灾害及其与降水特征的关系

利用2001-2005年云南滑坡泥石流灾害资料,分析了近5年来云南滑坡泥石流分布与演变的特点及其与云南降水、大雨、暴雨之间的关系.研究结果表明,在该时段云南滑坡泥石流灾害总体分布表现出西多东少,西北多东南少的趋势;滑坡泥石流灾害高发区与暴雨中心有很好的对应关系,其活动存在明显的年际变化特点,并且各个区域又有自身的演变规律.在时空分布上滇西北及滇西南是活动最频繁的区域;滑坡泥石流灾害具有明显的月际变化特征,高峰期集中在6-8月;滑坡泥石流灾害发生次数与年降水量、年暴雨次数及年大雨次数有着很好的对应关系;大气环流异常对滑坡泥石流灾害发生数量也有着明显的影响.     

2011年陕西秋季强连阴雨天气的大气环流异常特征分析

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了陕西2011年秋季强连阴雨期间的欧亚大气环流异常特征。结果表明:这次强连阴雨天气具有雨量大,暴雨范围广,站次多、降水集中等特点。欧亚500 hPa高度距平场"北高南低"的分布是这次强连阴雨天气产生的大气环流背景,500 hPa乌拉尔山到中亚阻塞高压稳定维持,脊前偏北气流引导冷空气从贝加尔湖与巴尔喀什湖之间的蒙新高地南下,在贝加尔湖与巴尔喀什湖之间形成一条冷舌,同时西太平洋副热带高压稳定,强度偏强,冷空气在东移南下过程中,在秦岭山脉附近与西太平洋副热带高压外围暖湿气流持续交汇,对流层低层秦岭山脉及其邻近地区有较常年同期明显偏强的上升气流,700 hPa流场台湾岛以东气旋性环流的异常维持,偏强的华南偏东气流和高原东侧偏南气流为陕西持续性强降水或连阴雨天气中暴雨发生发展输送了充足水汽。这种环流分布有利于陕西持续性强降水天气产生与维持。而西太平洋副热带高压稳定与副热带急流中心入口右前方动力强迫作用激发的垂直运动,也为陕西强连阴雨中强降水天气产生提供了有利动力环境场。     

厄尔尼诺与陕西水涝关系的研究

根据1726～1949年的26次尼尔尼诺资料和同期陕西省水涝文字记载作相关分析,发现:厄尔尼诺发生年及其次年,全省性大涝出现机率约24％,高出常年10.7％;水涝发生机率,厄尔尼诺发生率为21/26=81％,次年为20/26=77％;从1972年前全省5个地区的暴雨气象资料统计,厄尔尼诺发生年和次年,暴雨出现机率占各地暴雨总次数的50—75％。文中重点讨论了厄尔尼诺出现后的次年,500百帕北半球和东亚大气环流的特点和陕西水涝的关系。     

Cholera in Sudan: An account of an epidemic in a refugee camp in eastern Sudan, May-June 1985

In 1985 cholera has been a serious problem in the horn of Africa, particularly affecting the many famine victims and refugees in that region. In this paper the history of cholera in Africa is briefly summarized, as is the background to the current refugee situation in eastern Sudan. A cholera epidemic involving 1,175 cases in two adjacent refugee camps in eastern Sudan is described. In this epidemic there were thirteen inpatient deaths and thirty-eight known home deaths from cholera. The management of the epidemic is described in detail. Overall an average of 8 1. of intravenous fluid was used per case, a higher figure than was anticipated, probably because of the unexpected degree of vomiting and the shortage of trained nursing staff.
The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed.     

A retrospective statistical review of deaths owing to migration through the southeasternmost land borders of the European Union,Greece 2000–14

The land borders of Evros, Greece, have been a common entry point for undocumented migrants on their way to Europe through Turkey. Adverse conditions, however, have resulted in many human casualties over the years. On the Greek side, 334 cadavers were retrieved between 2000 and 2014. This study provides a detailed forensic account of the humanitarian disaster in Evros to create an official scientific record of the situation. It showcases the gravity of the global issue of migration relating to health and mortality, and encourages communication and continual improvement of the approach and patterns of practices surrounding the subject. A retrospective statistical research review was conducted of border‐related fatalities between 2000 and 2014, assessing the age and gender of victims, the cause of death, the location of bodies, identification rates, and country of origin. Age ranged generally from 24 to 29 years, but infants and children were among the deceased.     

Complexity,continuity and change: livelihood resilience in the Darfur region of Sudan

Darfur farming and pastoralist livelihoods are both adaptations to the environmental variability that characterises the region. This article describes this adaptation and the longer‐term transformation of these specialised livelihoods from the perspective of local communities. Over several decades farmers and herders have experienced a continuous stream of climate, conflict and other shocks, which, combined with wider processes of change, have transformed livelihoods and undermined livelihood institutions. Their well‐rehearsed specialist strategies are now combined with new strategies to cope. These responses help people get by in the short term but risk antagonising not only their specialist strategies but also those of others. A combination of factors has undermined the former integration between farming and pastoralism and their livelihood institutions. Efforts to build resilience in similar contexts must take a long‐term view of livelihood adaptation as a specialisation, and consider the implications of new strategies for the continuity and integration of livelihood specialisations.     

The cultural politics of mining and natural disaster in Indonesia: by fire and sword

Natural disasters are inevitably the outcome of cultural agonisms. The cultural politics of natural disasters are shaped by competing claims and conceptions of ‘nature’. Recent disasters in Indonesia are directly linked to these contending conceptions and the ways in which different social groups imagine risk and reward. The Sidoarjo volcanic mudflow of 2006 represents a volatile and violent exemplar of contending cultural and economic claims. Like other disasters in Indonesia and elsewhere in the developing world, this ‘natural’ disaster is characterised by differing conceptions of ‘nature’ as cultural tradition, divine force, and natural resource. A new extractive project in East Java is exhibiting similar economic and cultural agonisms, particularly around the notion of development, environment, self‐determination, and tradition. This paper examines the ‘disputes over meaning’ associated with natural disasters in contemporary societies, and the ways in which they are related to human culture, social organisation, and hierarchical systems of violence.     

Reflections on 40 years of Disasters, 1977–2017

This reflection, based on a keynote address to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of Disasters on 14 September 2017, begins by considering some of the prevailing assumptions that existed at the time of the journal's creation. Next is a summary of significant milestones during the past 40 years, covering major global trends, changing disaster impacts, and key developments in disaster risk management. Contrasting approaches in the first and fourth decade of the journal's history are then followed by examples of changes in terminology in the disaster field as an indication of shifting values. The paper goes on to explore the context of 2017, with observations of problem areas such as the loss of knowledge, failures to tackle the root causes of disasters, shortfalls in international assistance, and some negative attitudes. It closes by evaluating some current positive occurrences, including a reduction in casualties, sharing of experience, technological advances, and dramatic improvements in disaster warning.     

Fiji, land of tropical cyclones and hurricanes: A case study of agricultural rehabilitation

Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have a severe impact on the social and economic activities of affected communities. For small island nations in the Pacific region, the effects can be devastating because of their smallness. FQi and several other countries in the region are vulnerable to such disasters as they are situated in the zone where cyclones occur frequently.
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Tsunami survivors' perspectives on vulnerability and vulnerability reduction: evidence from Koh Phi Phi Don and Khao Lak, Thailand

This paper presents the results of primary research with 40 survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in two communities: Khao Lak (n=20) and Koh Phi Phi Don (n=20), Thailand. It traces tsunami survivors' perceptions of vulnerability, determines whether residents felt that the tsunami affected different communities differently, identifies the populations and sub-community groups that survivors distinguished as being more vulnerable than others, highlights community-generated ideas about vulnerability reduction, and pinpoints a range of additional vulnerability reduction actions. Tsunami survivors most consistently identified the 'most vulnerable' community sub-populations as women, children, the elderly, foreigners, and the poor. In Khao Lak, however, respondents added 'Burmese migrants' to this list, whereas in Koh Phi Phi Don, they added 'Thai Muslims'. Results suggest that the two case study communities, both small, coastal, tourism-dominated communities no more than 100 kilometres apart, have differing vulnerable sub-groups and environmental vulnerabilities, requiring different post-disaster vulnerability reduction efforts.     

The ethical contours of research in crisis settings: five practical considerations for academic institutional review boards and researchers

The number of research studies in the humanitarian field is rising. It is imperative, therefore, that institutional review boards (IRBs) consider carefully the additional risks present in crisis contexts to ensure that the highest ethical standards are upheld. Ethical guidelines should represent better the specific issues inherent to research among populations grappling with armed conflict, disasters triggered by natural hazards, or health‐related emergencies. This paper seeks to describe five issues particular to humanitarian settings that IRBs should deliberate and on which they should provide recommendations to overcome associated challenges: staged reviews of protocols in acute emergencies; flexible reviews of modification requests; addressing violence and the traumatic experiences of participants; difficulties in attaining meaningful informed consent among populations dependent on aid; and ensuring reviews are knowledgeable of populations' needs. Considering these matters when reviewing protocols will yield more ethically sound research in humanitarian settings and hold researchers accountable to appropriate ethical standards.