Using stable isotopes to reveal shifts in prey consumption by generalist predators.

The effectiveness of generalist predators in biological control may be diminished if increased availability of alternative prey causes individual predators to decrease their consumption of crop pests. Farming practices that enhance densities of microbidetritivores in the detrital food web can lead to increased densities of generalist predators that feed on pest species. The ability to predict the net biocontrol impact of increased predator densities depends upon knowing the extent to which individual predators may shift to detrital prey and feed less on crop pests when prey of the detritus-based food web are more abundant. We addressed this question by comparing ratios of stable isotopes of carbon (delta13C) and nitrogen (delta15N) in generalist ground predators and two types of prey (crop pests and microbidetritivores) in replicated 8 x 8 m cucurbit gardens subjected to one of two treatments: a detrital subsidy or no addition of detritus (control). Small sheet-web spiders (Linyphiidae) and small wolf spiders (Lycosidae) had delta13C values similar to those of Collembola in both the detrital and control treatments, indicating that small spiders belong primarily to the detrital food web. In control plots the larger generalist predators had delta13C values similar to those of the major insect pests, consistent with their known effectiveness as biocontrol agents. Adding detritus may have caused delta13C of one species of large wolf spider to shift toward that of the microbi-detritivores, although evidence is equivocal. In contrast, another large wolf spider displayed no shift in delta13C in the detrital treatment. Thus, stable isotopes revealed which generalist predators will likely continue to feed on pest species in the presence of greater densities of alternative prey.     

Spotted Owls and Old Growth Logging in the Pacific Northwest

Abstract: Northern Spotted Owls, Strix occidentalis caurina, require large tracts of old-growth conifer forest to survive and reproduce. Much of this forest has been or is being cut by commercial logging operations, with uncertain consequences for the owls. In this paper I present simulation models of owl population change over the next 100 years, as summing a variety of scenarios for habitat destruction and fragmentation. My analysis differs from previous models by incorporating patchy territory distribution and random environmental fluctuations. Fragmented and patchy habitat distributions are common problems for endangered organisms, but they have received little attention from modelers. My results indicate that yearly fluctuations in breeding success have little impact on owl populations, but that spatial structure is quite important and should be considered in planning forest preservation. The simulations suggest that for all reasonable parameter values the proposed US. Forest Service logging plans will lead to the demise of the owls.     

In situ measures of foraging success and prey encounter reveal marine habitat-dependent search strategies

Predators are thought to reduce travel speed and increase turning rate in areas where resources are relatively more abundant, a behavior termed "area-restricted search." However, evidence for this is rare, and few empirical data exist for large predators. Animals exhibiting foraging site fidelity could also be spatially aware of suitable feeding areas based on prior experience; changes in movement patterns might therefore arise from the anticipation of higher prey density. We tested the hypothesis that regions of area-restricted search were associated with a higher number of daily speed spikes (a proxy for potential prey encounter rate) and foraging success in southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina), a species exhibiting both area-restricted searches and high interannual foraging site fidelity. We used onshore morphological measurements and diving data from archival tags deployed during winter foraging trips. Foraging success was inferred from in situ changes in relative lipid content derived from measured changes in buoyancy, and first-passage time analysis was used to identify area-restricted search behavior. Seals exhibited relatively direct southerly movement on average, with intensive search behavior predominantly located at the distal end of tracks. The probability of being in search mode was positively related to changes in relative lipid content; thus, intensively searched areas were associated with the highest foraging success. However, there was high foraging success during the outward transit even though seals moved through quickly without slowing down and increasing turning rate to exploit these areas. In addition, the probability of being in search mode was negatively related to the number of daily speed spikes. These results suggest that movement patterns represent a response to prior expectation of the location of predictable and profitable resources. Shelf habitat was 4-9 times more profitable than the other habitats, emphasizing the importance of the East Antarctic shelf for this and other predators in the region. We have provided rare empirical data with which to investigate the relationship between predator foraging strategy and prey encounter/ foraging success, underlining the importance of inferring the timing and spatial arrangement of successful food acquisition for interpreting foraging strategies correctly.     

Assessment of harbor seal predation on adult salmonids in a Pacific Northwest estuary.

The populations of many native species have increased or expanded in distribution in recent decades, sometimes with negative consequences to sympatric native species that are rarer or less adaptable to anthropogenic changes to the environment. An example of this phenomenon from the Pacific Northwest is predation by locally abundant pinnipeds (seals and sea lions) on threatened, endangered, or otherwise depleted salmonid (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations. We used survey sampling methodology, acoustic telemetry, and molecular genetics to quantify the amount of harbor seal (Phoca vitulina) predation on a depressed run of coho salmon (O. kisutch) and to determine whether some seals consumed a disproportionately higher number of salmonids than others. Based on a probability sample totaling 759.5 h of observation, we estimated that seals consumed 1161 adult salmonids (95% CI = 503-1818 salmonids) during daylight hours over an 18.9-km estuarine study area in Oregon during an 84-d period in fall 2002. Simultaneous tracking of 56 seals via an acoustic telemetry array indicated that a small proportion of marked seals (12.5%) exhibited behavior that was consistent with specialization on salmonids. These seals spent the majority of their time in the riverine portion of the study area and did so disproportionately more at night than day. Genetic analysis of 116 salmonid structures recovered from 11 seal fecal samples suggested that coho salmon accounted for approximately one-half of total salmonid consumption. Though subject to considerable uncertainty, the combined results lead us to infer that seals consumed 21% (range = 3-63%) of the estimated prespawning population of coho salmon. We speculate that the majority of the predation occurred upriver, at night, and was done by a relatively small proportion of the local seal population. Understanding the extent and nature of pinniped predation can provide important inputs into risk assessments and other modeling efforts designed to aid the conservation and recovery of salmonids in the Pacific Northwest. Such understanding may also help inform management actions designed to reduce the impact of pinniped predation on salmonids, which potentially range from short-term lethal removal programs to long-term ecosystem restoration and protection efforts.     

Moss harvest truncates the successional development of epiphytic bryophytes in the Pacific Northwest.

We evaluated the impact of commercial moss harvest on the development of an understory epiphyte community in the Pacific Northwest by characterizing natural development stages using data from both a long-term regrowth study and demographic sampling. First, experimentally stripped 1 m long cylindrats on 46 shrub stems in the Oregon Coast Range were monitored for species composition and abundance annually during the first five years of recovery and again in year 10. Second, a pathway of community development was inferred by examining the relative species composition and abundance of epiphytic species present in moss mats in a four-stage chronosequence. We (1) characterized the change in richness and composition from year 1 through 10 of regrowth following experimental disturbance, (2) quantified the proportion of approximately 1-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year-old moss mats of commercially harvestable species that were monodominant, diverse, and late successional, and (3) contrasted these proportions with estimates from a compositional transition matrix derived from long-term monitoring. Roughly half of the observed moss mats demonstrated neutral dynamics and were composed of a mixture of readily dispersed acrocarps and pleurocarps. The remaining half exhibited positive dynamics and were dominated by aggressively growing pleurocarpous species such as Isothecium myosuroides. Following structural developmental pathways well established for vascular plants, moss mats shift with time from high diversity and evenness in the initial colonization and extended establishment phases to increasing Isothecium dominance during a presumed competitive-exclusion phase. Old mats exist in alternate states of either Isothecium dominance or mixed composition, either of which may have late-successional species. Patchy historic commercial moss harvest likely facilitated high diversity by increasing the simultaneous occurrence of all moss mat age classes, while modern strip harvesting methods are predicted to promote predominantly even-aged mats that are unlikely to reach "old-growth" conditions before re-harvest.     

Geographic sampling of urban soils for contaminant mapping: how many samples and from where

Properly sampling soils and mapping soil contamination in urban environments requires that impacts of spatial autocorrelation be taken into account. As spatial autocorrelation increases in an urban landscape, the amount of duplicate information contained in georeferenced data also increases, whether an entire population or some type of random sample drawn from that population is being analyzed, resulting in conventional power and sample size calculation formulae yielding incorrect sample size numbers vis-à-vis model-based inference. Griffith (in Annals, Association of American Geographers, 95, 740–760, 2005) exploits spatial statistical model specifications to formulate equations for estimating the necessary sample size needed to obtain some predetermined level of precision for an analysis of georeferenced data when implementing a tessellation stratified random sampling design, labeling this approach model-informed, since a model of latent spatial autocorrelation is required. This paper addresses issues of efficiency associated with these model-based results. It summarizes findings from a data collection exercise (soil samples collected from across Syracuse, NY), as well as from a set of resampling and from a set of simulation experiments following experimental design principles spelled out by Overton and Stehman (in Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods, 22, 2641–2660). Guidelines are suggested concerning appropriate sample size (i.e., how many) and sampling network (i.e., where).

Topology of Extinction and Endangerment of Native Fishes in the Pacific Northwest and California (U.S.A.)

Recent studies have provided a broad data base on extinction and endangerment of species, subspecies, and distinct populations of inland fishes in western North America. Development of a synoptic, regional-scale image of extinction and risk of extinction is complicated by the small size and linear distribution of fluvial aquatic habitats and by interspecific variation in areal extent of populations. I developed a regional map of extinction-risk isopleths based on the number of extinct and persistently declining species in drainage basins of the Pacific Northwest and California. This topological synthesis is useful for delineating and monitoring areas of historic and ongoing loss of aquatic biodiversity, and for relating losses to patterns of land use and habitat modification, climate hydrology, and geomorphology. From an ecological perspective, endangerment of numerous indigenous populations of seven widely distributed species of anadromous salmonids in this region is as important as the more local, diffuse effects of declines in more than 60 endemic, nonanadromous species and subspecies. The simultaneous decline of numerous taxa in basins not afflicted with dams or diversions suggests that cumulative damage to aquatic habitats caused by logging, grazing, urbanization, and other land uses plays a major role in icthyofaunal impoverishment.     

Null models reveal preferential sampling, spatial autocorrelation and overfitting in habitat suitability modelling

Nowadays, species are driven to extinction at a high rate. To reduce this rate it is important to delineate suitable habitats for these species in such a way that these areas can be suggested as conservation areas. The use of habitat suitability models (HSMs) can be of great importance for the delineation of such areas. In this study MaxEnt, a presence-only modelling technique, is used to develop HSMs for 223 nematode species of the Southern Bight of the North Sea. However, it is essential that these models are beyond discussion and they should be checked for potential errors. In this study we focused on two categories (1) errors which can be attributed to the database such as preferential sampling and spatial autocorrelation and (2) errors induced by the modelling technique such as overfitting, In order to quantify these adverse effects thousands of nulls models were created. The effect of preferential sampling (i.e. some areas where visited more frequenty than others) was investigated by comparing model outcomes based from null models sampling the actual sampling stations and null models sampling the entire mapping area (Raes and ter Steege, 2007). Overfitting is exposed by a fivefold cross-validation and the influence of spatial autocorrelation is assessed by separating test and training sets in space. Our results clearly show that all these effects are present: preferential sampling has a strong effect on the selection of non-random species models. Crossvalidation seems to have less influence on the model selection and spatial autocorrelation is also strongly present. It is clear from this study that predefined thresholds are not readily applicable to all datasets and additional tests are needed in model selection.     

1950年至2016年美国西北太平洋煤炭相关污染物的大气沉降

与煤有关的元素是有毒的和持久性的污染物,自从工业革命以来,主要是由点源排放在全球传播。华盛顿州生态部从华盛顿州东北部的深湖采集了一个沉积柱,以评估美国太平洋西北部最近的大气沉积变化。沉积柱被分为深度层段和210Pb测年。对每个截面的样品进行消化并使用ICP-MS进行金属和类金属的分析。数据显示最近砷、钡、硒和汞的浓度的增加。与1993年美国地质调查局怀俄明州弗雷蒙特冰川上部的冰芯数据、亚洲煤炭消耗数据和天气模式进行比较,表明向深湖沉积物输入的污染物是亚太地区燃煤活动的结果。最显著的是,自进行冰芯分析的1993年以来,深湖的汞沉积量从1996年的20 ppb增加到2014年的9470 ppb（增加了400倍）。     

Combining a generic process-based productivity model and a statistical classification method to predict the presence and absence of tree species in the Pacific Northwest,U.S.A.

Although long-lived tree species experience considerable environmental variation over their life spans, their geographical distributions reflect sensitivity mainly to mean monthly climatic conditions. We introduce an approach that incorporates a physiologically based growth model to illustrate how a half-dozen tree species differ in their responses to monthly variation in four climatic-related variables: water availability, deviations from an optimum temperature, atmospheric humidity deficits, and the frequency of frost. Rather than use climatic data directly to correlate with a species’ distribution, we assess the relative constraints of each of the four variables as they affect predicted monthly photosynthesis for Douglas-fir, the most widely distributed species in the region. We apply an automated regression-tree analysis to create a suite of rules, which differentially rank the relative importance of the four climatic modifiers for each species, and provide a basis for predicting a species’ presence or absence on 3737 uniformly distributed U.S. Forest Services’ Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field survey plots. Results of this generalized rule-based approach were encouraging, with weighted accuracy, which combines the correct prediction of both presence and absence on FIA survey plots, averaging 87%. A wider sampling of climatic conditions throughout the full range of a species’ distribution should improve the basis for creating rules and the possibility of predicting future shifts in the geographic distribution of species.     

Risk vs. reward: how predators and prey respond to aging olfactory cues

Many animals use olfaction to find food and avoid predators, and must negotiate environments containing odors of varying compositions, strengths, and ages to distinguish useful cues from background noise. Temporal variation in odor cues (i.e., “freshness”) seems an obvious way that animals could distinguish cues, yet there is little experimental evidence for this phenomenon. Fresh cues provide a more reliable indicator of donor presence than aged cues, but we hypothesize that the benefits of responding to aged cues depend on whether the cue indicates the proximity of a predator or a potential meal. As prey cannot remain eternally risk averse in response to predator odor, we predict that antipredator responses should diminish as predator cues age. In contrast, animals searching for food should investigate aged prey cues if investigation costs are sufficiently low and the potential benefit (a meal) sufficiently high; thus, we predict that predators will maintain interest in aged prey cues. We tested these ideas using free-ranging rats (Rattus spp.) in two separate experiments; firstly assessing giving-up densities in the presence of predator odor, and secondly examining investigation rates of prey odors. As predicted, giving-up densities dropped once predator odor had aged, but investigation rates remained similar for aged and fresh prey odor. Thus, rats used temporal variation in odor cues to evaluate the cost–benefit relationship of responding to predator and prey odors. We suggest that the ecological significance of variable cue age needs more research and should be considered when interpreting behavioral responses to olfactory information.     

Molecular taxonomy of vestimentiferans of the western Pacific and their phylogenetic relationship to species of the eastern Pacific. I. Family Lamellibrachiidae

Phylogenetic relationships among vestimentiferans in the family Lamellibrachiidae collected from ten sites in the western Pacific were analyzed on the basis of the nucleotide sequence of part of a mitochondrial gene for cytochrome oxidase I. The 103 individuals analyzed were tentatively classified into five species: namely, Lamellibrachia satsuma, three tentative species inhabiting Japanese waters and one tentative species from the Manus Basin. Phylogenetic analysis of the four tentative species, L. satsuma, and two lamellibrachiids, whose sequences had been reported previously, namely L. columna from the Lau Basin and L. barhami from the Oregon Margin and the Middle Valley, revealed that the lamellibrachiids from Japanese waters were not monophyletic. While two tentative species from Japanese waters and L. columna formed a monophyletic group, the other tentative species from Japanese waters was closely related to the tentative species from the Manus Basin. L. satsuma was shown to be phylogenetically distinct from other lamellibrachiids of the western Pacific. A lamellibrachiid that had been collected from the Nikko Seamount was also demonstrated to be L. sastuma.     

Determining the optimal mix of federal and contract fire crews: A case study from the Pacific Northwest

Federal land management agencies in the United States are increasingly relying on contract crews as opposed to agency fire crews. Despite this increasing reliance on contractors, there have been no studies to determine what the optimal mix of contract and agency fire crews should be. A mathematical model is presented to address this question and is applied to a case study from the Pacific Northwest. Results show that the optimal number of agency crews is sensitive to assumptions about fire season severity and the availability of alternative work for agency crews on nonsuppression days.     

Attraction to prey and stimulus to attack in the predatory gastropod Urosalpinx cinerea

Urosalpinx cinerea (Say), accustomed to feeding on Balanus balanoides, were strongly attracted in a choice chamber by the effluents of B. balanoides and B. eburneus, were indifferent to the effluents of Crassostrea virginica, Crepidula fornicata and Mytilus edulis, and responded negatively to the effluent of their own species. Oyster drills from a population feeding on Crassostrea virginica were attracted to oyster effluent; when these snails were offered a choice between Crassostrea virginica and B. balanoides effluents, they responded in equal numbers to the two effluents. Concentrations of NH₄Cl-ammonia in the range 18.2 to 73.3 mol did not attract the snails, and their responses to animal effluents were not correlated with the ammonia and amino-acid concentrations of the effluents, which ranged from 11.8 to 21.0 mol. It is argued that these results deny ammonia the role of a nonspecific distance attractant. Confined separately with various potential prey species, Urosalpinx drilled Balanus balanoides, B. eburneus, Crassostrea virginica, Crepidula fornicata, C. plana, Mercenaria mercenaria, Modiolus demissus, Mya arenaria, Mytilus edulis, Spisula solidissima, and Yoldia limatula, but not Anomia simplex. The prey species that were the least attractive in running water were generally rendered attractive and subject to attack in standing water. Freshly shucked Crepidula fornicata shells were scarcely drilled unless continuously perfused by C. fornicata effluent, and then only in small numbers. Altering the texture of living C. fornicata shells by wrapping them in nylon netting, by polishing, or by roughening, did not make them immune to drilling. Oyster drills in contact with C. fornicata attacked only if they received the effluent of the living prey, proving that tactile stimuli alone are not adequate to induce drilling.     

Hitchhikers reveal cryptic host behavior: new insights from the association between Planes major and sea turtles in the Pacific Ocean

Studies that incorporate information from habitat-specific ecological interactions (e.g., epibiotic associations) can reveal valuable insights into the cryptic habitat-use patterns and behavior of marine vertebrates. Sea turtles, like other large, highly mobile marine vertebrates, are inherently difficult to study, and such information can inform the implementation of conservation measures. The presence of epipelagic epibionts, such as the flotsam crab Planes major, on sea turtles strongly suggests that neritic turtles have recently occupied epipelagic habitats (upper 200 m in areas with >200 m depth) and that epipelagic turtles spend time at or near the surface. We quantified the effects of turtle species, turtle size, and habitat (neritic or epipelagic) on the frequency of epibiosis (F ₀) by P. major on sea turtles in the Pacific Ocean. In neritic habitats, we found that loggerhead (F ₀ = 27.6 %) and olive ridley turtles (F ₀ = 26.2 %) host crabs frequently across a wide range of body sizes, and green turtles almost never host crabs (F ₀ = 0.7 %). These results suggest that loggerheads and olive ridleys display variable/flexible epipelagic-neritic transitions, while green turtles tend to transition unidirectionally at small body sizes. In epipelagic habitats, we found that loggerheads host crabs (F ₀ = 92.9 %) more frequently than olive ridleys (F ₀ = 50 %) and green turtles (F ₀ = 38.5 %). These results suggest that epipelagic loggerheads tend to spend more time at or near the surface than epipelagic olive ridleys and green turtles. Results of this study reveal new insights into habitat-use patterns and behavior of sea turtles and display how epibiont data can supplement data from more advanced technologies to gain a better understanding of the ecology of marine vertebrates during cryptic life stages.     

Assessing the past and future distribution and productivity of ponderosa pine in the Pacific Northwest using a process model, 3-PG

Climate variability at decadal scales influences not only the growth of widely distributed species such as Pinus ponderosa, but also can have an effect on the timing and severity of fire and insect outbreaks that may alter species distributions. In this paper, we present a spatial modelling technique to assess the influence of climatic variability on the annual productivity of P. ponderosa in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) of North America over the past 100 years and infer how a sustained change in climate might alter the geographic distribution of this species across defined ecotones. Field observations were used to establish criteria for P. ponderosa dominance including: (1) maximum summer leaf area index (LAI), ranges between 1.5 and 2.5; (2) 80% of available soil water is depleted during summer months; and (3) soil water will return to full capacity at least once during the year. Where these three criteria were not met, eventual replacement of P. ponderosa would be predicted. We utilized a simple physiological model, Physiological Principles for Predicting Growth (3-PG) to predict annual variation in LAI from climatic data provided by the Oregon Climate Service over the period from 1900 to 2000 and from broad scale 0.5°-spatial resolution future climate projections produced by the Hadley Climate Center, UK. From these simulations we produced a series of maps that display predicted shifts of zones where ponderosa pine might be expected to contract or expand its range if modeled climatic conditions at annual and decadal intervals were sustained. From the historical simulations, the most favorable year for pine dominance was 1958 and the least favorable, 1924. The most favorable decade was in the 1900s and the least favorable in the 1930s. The future predictions indicate a reduction in the current range of the P. ponderosa type along the western Cascade Range however, an increase along the east side and inland PNW. The model predicts that pine dominance should increase between 5 and 10% over the next century, mainly in inland Oregon, Idaho, and Washington.     

Using opportunistic green macroalgae as indicators of nitrogen supply and sources to estuaries.

Nutrient inputs to estuaries are increasing worldwide, and anthropogenic contributions are increasingly complex and difficult to distinguish. Measurement of integrated effects of salinity and nutrient changes simultaneously can help ascertain whether N sources of similar magnitude and stable isotope (sigma15N) signatures are river dominated. We used Enteromorpha spp., an opportunistic macroalga, to obtain integrated measures of salinity, nutrient supply, and nutrient source in estuaries. We outplanted cultured algae in the field along spatial gradients within three southern California estuaries for 24 hours in wet and dry seasons. Tissue was analyzed for potassium (K+) to measure osmoregulatory changes, total nitrogen to examine changes in nutrient supply, and sigma15N to assess nutrient sources. Discrete measures of water salinity correlated with tissue K+ content; however, there was significant variability in the relationship, suggesting that the algae were subject to considerable variation in salinity over a tidal cycle. Tissue total N was not always related to snapshot measures of water column dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), suggesting that integrated measures may be better at capturing the temporal and spatial complexity of nutrient availability. The combination of tissue K+, total N, and sigma15N measures revealed that inflowing rivers delivered N from watershed sources to Mugu Lagoon and Carpinteria Salt Marsh, while both the inflowing river and a mid estuary source were important sources of high sigma15N N in Upper Newport Bay. These experiments revealed complex patterns of supply and sources of N and demonstrate the usefulness of macroalgal indicators over water sampling to detect these patterns.     

Incorporating covariates into fisheries stock assessment models with application to Pacific herring.

We present a framework for evaluating the cause of fishery declines by integrating covariates into a fisheries stock assessment model. This allows the evaluation of fisheries' effects vs. natural and other human impacts. The analyses presented are based on integrating ecological science and statistics and form the basis for environmental decision-making advice. Hypothesis tests are described to rank hypotheses and determine the size of a multiple covariate model. We extend recent developments in integrated analysis and use novel methods to produce effect size estimates that are relevant to policy makers and include estimates of uncertainty. Results can be directly applied to evaluate trade-offs among alternative management decisions. The methods and results are also broadly applicable outside fisheries stock assessment. We show that multiple factors influence populations and that analysis of factors in isolation can be misleading. We illustrate the framework by applying it to Pacific herring of Prince William Sound, Alaska (USA). The Pacific herring stock that spawns in Prince William Sound is a stock that has collapsed, but there are several competing or alternative hypotheses to account for the initial collapse and subsequent lack of recovery. Factors failing the initial screening tests for statistical significance included indicators of the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, coho salmon predation, sea lion predation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Northern Oscillation Index, and effects of containment in the herring egg-on-kelp pound fishery. The overall results indicate that the most statistically significant factors related to the lack of recovery of the herring stock involve competition or predation by juvenile hatchery pink salmon on herring juveniles. Secondary factors identified in the analysis were poor nutrition in the winter, ocean (Gulf of Alaska) temperature in the winter, the viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus, and the pathogen Ichthyophonus hoferi. The implication of this result to fisheries management in Prince William Sound is that it may well be difficult to simultaneously increase the production of pink salmon and maintain a viable Pacific herring fishery. The impact can be extended to other commercially important fisheries, and a whole ecosystem approach may be needed to evaluate the costs and benefits of salmon hatcheries.