Demography and Population Viability of an Endangered Plant Species before and after Protection from Trampling

Land managers often suggest fencing to protect rare plant species from being trampled in heavily used recreation areas, but there are few documented examples of the efficacy of this strategy. In a 7-year demographic study we examined the reproduction, survival, and long-term viability of the endangered sentry milk-vetch (Astragalus cremnophylax var. cremnophylax) before and after protection from trampling. Demographic monitoring and population viability analyses indicated that the population has fluctuated during the 7 years. Before protection the population declined: 26% of individuals died, mortality surpassed natality, and age of first reproduction was significantly older than post-protection. Fifty-eight percent of the population was severely damaged. Population viability analyses of pre-protection years predicted that the population would go extinct within 100 years. Since protection, the population stabilized, grew, and declined again. Seedlings reached reproductive maturity more quickly. Recruitment increased and peaked in 1993 coincident with abundant precipitation, but again declined in 1994. The total numbers of undamaged plants surpassed the numbers of damaged plants. Models of the post-protection population predict stability. Multiple-linear regression analysis indicated that winter and spring precipitation were significantly correlated with lambda. Both "good" and "bad" climatic conditions occurred during the pre- and post-protection periods. Because of small population size and depauperate genetic diversity, climate will continue to influence population growth. Nevertheless, models indicate that where trampling and bad climatic conditions were coupled, extinction was accelerated. Recovery of sentry milk-vetch will depend on continued protection, augmentation, and environmental factors, although risk of extinction remains very high.     

Demographic Viability of a Relict Population of the Critically Endangered Plant Borderea chouardii

Abstract:   In addition to human-caused changes in the environment, natural stochasticity may threaten species persistence, and its impact must be taken into account when priorities are established and management plans are designed. Borderea chouardii is a Tertiary relict at risk of extinction that occurs in only one location in the world, where the probability of human disturbance is low. Its persistence, therefore, is mainly linked to its response to natural threats such as stochasticity. Over 8 years I monitored up to 25% of this rupicolous small geophyte. The population had an unbalanced size structure and 90% failure in seed arrival at appropriate microhabitats, which suggests a problem with recruitment. I used matrix models to describe its population dynamics, conducted hand sowings, and performed stochastic simulations to investigate the effect of environmental stochasticity on population trend and viability. I modeled several scenarios to represent a variety of ecological situations, such as population reduction, episodic or persistent disease, and enhancement or decrease of recruitment. Population growth rate (λ) was never significantly different from unity over the study period. The risk of extinction was null over the next five centuries under current conditions. Increase of mortality and decrease of recruitment reduced stochastic population growth rate, but no factor except a persistent increase of 10% mortality resulted in extinction. These results are the consequence of the plant's extremely long life span (over 300 years) and low temporal variability of key vital rates. Even though hand sowing significantly increased the stochastic population growth rate, other approaches may be more important for the persistence of this species. The extremely slow capacity for recovery following disturbances renders habitat preservation essential. In addition, the founding of new populations would reduce the risk associated with habitat destruction.     

Using Population Viability Criteria to Assess Strategies to Minimize Disease Threats for an Endangered Carnivore

Outbreaks of infectious disease represent serious threats to the viability of many vertebrate populations, but few studies have included quantitative evaluations of alternative approaches to the management of disease. The most prevalent management approach is monitoring for and rapid response to an epizootic. An alternative is vaccination of a subset of the free‐living population (i.e., a “vaccinated core”) such that some individuals are partially or fully immune in the event of an epizootic. We developed a simulation model describing epizootic dynamics, which we then embedded in a demographic simulation to assess these alternative approaches to managing rabies epizootics in the island fox (Urocyon littoralis), a species composed of only 6 small populations on the California Channel Islands. Although the monitor and respond approach was superior to the vaccinated‐core approach for some transmission models and parameter values, this type of reactive management did not protect the population from rabies under many disease‐transmission assumptions. In contrast, a logistically feasible program of prophylactic vaccination for part of the wild population yielded low extinction probabilities across all likely disease‐transmission scenarios, even with recurrent disease introductions. Our use of a single metric of successful management—probability of extreme endangerment (i.e., quasi extinction)—to compare very different management approaches allowed an objective assessment of alternative strategies for controlling the threats posed by infectious disease outbreaks. Utilización de Criterios de Viabilidad Poblacional para Evaluar Estrategias para Minimizar Amenazas de Enfermedades para un Carnívoro en Peligro     

Population Viability Analysis for a Small Population of Red-Cockaded Woodpeckers and an Evaluation of Enhancement Strategies

We performed a series of population and pedigree analyses to examine the viability of a small Red-cockaded Woodpecker ( Picoides borealis ) population located at the Savannah River Site, in Barnwell and Aiken counties of South Carolina. The population's existence and future survival are precarious. As few as four individuals, including just one breeding pair, comprised this population in 1985. Now, primarily because of experimental transformation of birds from other areas, the population has increased to 25. As of 1990, genealogy pedigree analysis showed that the respective contribution of 14 founders to the extant population has not been equal. Founder gender equivalents are low (5.4) but could reach 9.2 if poorly-represented founders were to produce offspring. The fraction of founder gene diversity retained in the current population is 0.91. Successful recovery strategies would ensure 95% probability of population survival while maintaining 90% heterozygosity for 200 years. Viability analyses indicated that, depending on relative effects of inbreeding depression and stochastic environmental events, the Savannah River Site population has a 68–100% chance of extinction during this period. Annual translocation into the population of at least three females and two males for a 10-year period will achieve a 96% probability of survival for 200 years. Even with translocation of numerous males and females per year (up to 50 of each), the 90% heterozygosity goal may not be achieved. We discuss recommendations for choosing individuals for translocation logistical constraints on achieving recovery objectives, and limitations of our modeling approach.     

The Sensitivity of Population Viability Analysis to Uncertainty about Habitat Requirements: Implications for the Management of the Endangered Southern Brown Bandicoot

Abstract:  Whenever population viability analysis (PVA) models are built to help guide decisions about the management of rare and threatened species, an important component of model building is the specification of a habitat model describing how a species is related to landscape or bioclimatic variables. Model-selection uncertainty may arise because there is often a great deal of ambiguity about which habitat model structure best approximates the true underlying biological processes. The standard approach to incorporate habitat models into PVA is to assume the best habitat model is correct, ignoring habitat-model uncertainty and alternative model structures that may lead to quantitatively different conclusions and management recommendations. Here we provide the first detailed examination of the influence of habitat-model uncertainty on the ranking of management scenarios from a PVA model. We evaluated and ranked 6 management scenarios for the endangered southern brown bandicoot ( Isoodon obesulus ) with PVA models, each derived from plausible competing habitat models developed with logistic regression. The ranking of management scenarios was sensitive to the choice of the habitat model used in PVA predictions. Our results demonstrate the need to incorporate methods into PVA that better account for model uncertainty and highlight the sensitivity of PVA to decisions made during model building. We recommend that researchers search for and consider a range of habitat models when undertaking model-based decision making and suggest that routine sensitivity analyses should be expanded to include an analysis of the impact of habitat-model uncertainty and assumptions.     

Actual and Potential Use of Population Viability Analyses in Recovery of Plant Species Listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Use of population viability analyses (PVAs) in endangered species recovery planning has been met with both support and criticism. Previous reviews promote use of PVA for setting scientifically based, measurable, and objective recovery criteria and recommend improvements to increase the framework's utility. However, others have questioned the value of PVA models for setting recovery criteria and assert that PVAs are more appropriate for understanding relative trade‐offs between alternative management actions. We reviewed 258 final recovery plans for 642 plants listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act to determine the number of plans that used or recommended PVA in recovery planning. We also reviewed 223 publications that describe plant PVAs to assess how these models were designed and whether those designs reflected previous recommendations for improvement of PVAs. Twenty‐four percent of listed species had recovery plans that used or recommended PVA. In publications, the typical model was a matrix population model parameterized with ≤5 years of demographic data that did not consider stochasticity, genetics, density dependence, seed banks, vegetative reproduction, dormancy, threats, or management strategies. Population growth rates for different populations of the same species or for the same population at different points in time were often statistically different or varied by >10%. Therefore, PVAs parameterized with underlying vital rates that vary to this degree may not accurately predict recovery objectives across a species’ entire distribution or over longer time scales. We assert that PVA, although an important tool as part of an adaptive‐management program, can help to determine quantitative recovery criteria only if more long‐term data sets that capture spatiotemporal variability in vital rates become available. Lacking this, there is a strong need for viable and comprehensive methods for determining quantitative, science‐based recovery criteria for endangered species with minimal data availability. Uso Actual y Potencial del Análisis de Viabilidad Poblacional para la Recuperación de Especies de Plantas Enlistadas en el Acta de Especies En Peligro de E.U.A     

Effects of Population Size on Seed Production and Germinability in an Endangered, Fragmented Grassland Plant

Abstract: Fragmentation and isolation of plant populations are thought to affect demographic processes such as seed production and cause reductions in fitness. I followed seed set over a 3-year period in eight populations of the endangered Rutidosis leptorrhynchoides (Asteraceae) that differed in population size from 13 to over 5000 flowering plants. Germinability of the resultant seed was also examined to determine whether small populations had lower fitness than large populations. Seed set was significantly associated with population size in 2 of the 3 years. Small populations (<30 flowering plants) produced significantly fewer seeds per head in 1994 and 1995 than did large populations (500 to over 5000 flowering plants), which did not differ significantly from one another. There was, however, substantial variation within populations. In 1993 seed production did not follow any simple relationship with population size, possibly because environmental stress from low rainfall had an overriding impact. Differences in seed germinability between populations were largely not evident, suggesting that this aspect of fitness has not declined substantially in small populations relative to large populations. This study suggests that nongenetic, demographic factors are of immediate importance to the persistence of small populations of R. leptorrhynchoides because of their potential impacts on seedling recruitment.