Carbon forestry economic mitigation potential in India,by land classification

Carbon forestry mitigation potential estimates at the global-level are limited by the absence or simplicity of national-level estimates, and similarly national-level estimates are limited by absence of regional-level estimates. The present study aims to estimate the mitigation potential for a large diverse country such as India, based on the GTAP global land classification system of agro-ecological zones (AEZs), as well the Indian AEZ system. The study also estimates the implications of carbon price incentive (US$50 and $100) on mitigation potential in the short-, medium- and long-term, since afforestation and reforestation (A & R) is constrained by lack of investment and financial incentives. The mitigation potential for short and long rotation plantations and natural regeneration was estimated using the GCOMAP global forest model for two land area scenarios. One scenario included only wastelands (29 Mha), and the second enhanced area scenario, included wastelands plus long fallow and marginal croplands (54 Mha). Under the $100 carbon price case, significant additional area (3.6 Mha under the wasteland scenario and 6.4 Mha under the enhanced area scenario) and carbon mitigation is gained in the short-term (2025) compared to the baseline when using the GTAP land classification system. The area brought under A & R increases by 85–100% for the $100 carbon price compared to $50 carbon price in the short-term, indicating the effectiveness of higher carbon price incentives, especially in the short-term. A comparison of estimates of mitigation potential using GTAP and Indian AEZ land classification systems showed that in the short-term, 35% additional C-stock gain is achieved in the $100 carbon price case in the enhanced area scenario of the Indian AEZ system. This difference highlights the role of the land classification system adopted in estimation of aggregate mitigation potential estimates, particularly in the short-term. Uncertainty involved in the estimates of national-level mitigation potential needs to be reduced, by generating reliable estimates of carbon stock gain and losses, and cost and benefit data, for land use sector mitigation options at a scale disaggregated enough to be relevant for national mitigation planning.     

Algal biofuel production and mitigation potential in India

Energy and energy services are the backbone of growth and development in India and is increasingly dependent upon the use of fossil based fuels that lead to greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and related concerns. Algal biofuels are being evolved as carbon (C)-neutral alternative biofuels. Algae are photosynthetic microorganisms that convert sunlight, water and carbon dioxide (CO₂) to various sugars and lipids Tri-Acyl-Glycols (TAG) and show promise as an alternative, renewable and green fuel source for India. Compared to land based oilseed crops algae have potentially higher yields (5?C12 g/m²/d) and can use locations and water resources not suited for agriculture. Within India, there is little additional land area for algal cultivation and therefore needs to be carried out in places that are already used for agriculture, e.g. flooded paddy lands (20 Mha) with village level technologies and on saline wastelands (3 Mha). Cultivating algae under such conditions requires novel multi-tier, multi-cyclic approaches of sharing land area without causing threats to food and water security as well as demand for additional fertilizer resources by adopting multi-tier cropping (algae-paddy) in decentralized open pond systems. A large part of the algal biofuel production is possible in flooded paddy crop land before the crop reaches dense canopies, in wastewaters (40 billion litres per day), in salt affected lands and in nutrient/diversity impoverished shallow coastline fishery. Mitigation will be achieved through avoidance of GHG, C-capture options and substitution of fossil fuels. Estimates made in this paper suggest that nearly half of the current transportation petro-fuels could be produced at such locations without disruption of food security, water security or overall sustainability. This shift can also provide significant mitigation avenues. The major adaptation needs are related to socio-technical acceptance for reuse of various wastelands, wastewaters and waste-derived energy and by-products through policy and attitude change efforts.     

Community and farm forestry climate mitigation projects: case studies from Uttaranchal,India

The methodologies for forest mitigation projects still present challenges to project developers for fulfillment of criteria within the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) or other such mechanisms for the purpose of earning carbon credits. This paper systematically approaches the process of establishing carbon (C) stocks for baseline (BSL) and mitigation scenario (MSL) for two case studies i.e., community and farm forestry projects in Uttaranchal, India. The analysis of various interventions shows that both projects present high carbon mitigation potential. However, the C reversibility risk is lower in long-rotation pine and mixed species plantation on community lands. The project is financially viable though not highly lucrative but the carbon mitigation potential in this ‘restoration of degraded lands’ type of project is immense provided challenges in the initial phase are adequately overcome. C revenue is an essential driver for investors in community projects. The short-rotation timber species such as Eucalyptus (Eucalyptus), Poplar (Populus) have high internal rates of return (IRR) and high carbon benefit reversibility potential due to fluctuations in market prices of commodities produced. The land holdings are small and bundling is desired for projects to achieve economies of scale. The methodological concerns such as sampling intensities, monitoring methodologies, sharing of benefits with communities and bundling arrangements for projects need further research to make these projects viable.     

Terrestrial Carbon Dynamics: Case Studies in the Former Soviet Union,the Conterminous United States,Mexico and Brazil

This research assessed land-use impacts on C flux at a national level in four countries: former Soviet Union, United States, Mexico and Brazil, including biotic processes in terrestrial ecosystems (closed forests, woodlands, and croplands), harvest of trees for wood and paper products, and direct C emission from fires. The terrestrial ecosystems of the four countries contain approximately 40% of the world's terrestrial biosphere C pool, with the FSU alone having 27% of the global total. Average phytomass C densities decreased from south to north while average soil C densities in all three vegetation types generally increased from south to north. The C flux from land cover conversion was divided into a biotic component and a land-use component. We estimate that the total net biotic flux (Tg/yr) was positive (= uptake) in the FSU (631) and the U.S. (332), but negative in Mexico (−37) and Brazil (−16). In contrast, total flux from land use was negative (= emissions) in all four countries (TgC/yr): FSU −343; U.S. −243; Mexico −35; and Brazil −235. The total net effect of the biotic and land-use factors was a C sink in the FSU and the U.S. and a C source in both Brazil and Mexico. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Implications of climate change on mitigation potential estimates for forest sector in India

Climate change is projected to impact forest ecosystems, including biodiversity and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). National level carbon forest sector mitigation potential estimates are available for India; however impacts of projected climate change are not included in the mitigation potential estimates. Change in NPP (in gC/m²/yr) is taken to represent the impacts of climate change. Long term impacts of climate change (2085) on the NPP of Indian forests are available; however no such regional estimates are available for short and medium terms. The present study based on GCM climatology scenarios projects the short, medium and long term impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems especially on NPP using BIOME4 vegetation model. We estimate that under A2 scenario by the year 2030 the NPP changes by (−5) to 40% across different agro-ecological zones (AEZ). By 2050 it increases by 15% to 59% and by 2070 it increases by 34 to 84%. However, under B2 scenario it increases only by 3 to 25%, 3.5 to 34% and (−2.5) to 38% respectively, in the same time periods. The cumulative mitigation potential is estimated to increase by up to 21% (by nearly 1 GtC) under A2 scenario between the years 2008 and 2108, whereas, under B2 the mitigation potential increases only by 14% (646 MtC). However, cumulative mitigation potential estimates obtained from IBIS—a dynamic global vegetation model suggest much smaller gains, where mitigation potential increases by only 6% and 5% during the period 2008 to 2108.     

Carbon storage versus fossil fuel substitution: a climate change mitigation option for two different land use categories based on short and long rotation forestry in India

Short rotation bioenergy crops for energy production are considered an effective means to mitigate the greenhouse effect, mainly due to their ability to substitute fossil fuels. Alternatively, carbon can be sequestered and stored in the living biomass. This paper compares the two land use categories (forest land and non-forest land) for two management practices (short rotation vs. long rotation) to study mitigation potential of afforestation and fossil fuel substitution as compared to carbon storage. Significant carbon benefit can be obtained in the long run from using lands for growing short rotation energy crops and substituting fossil fuels by the biomass thus produced, as opposed to sequestering carbon in the biomass of the trees. When growth rates are high and harvest is used in a sustainable manner (i.e., replanting after every harvest), the opportunities for net carbon reductions appear to be fossil fuel substitution, rather than storage in ecosystem biomass. Our results suggest that at year 100 a total of 216 Mg C ha⁻¹ is sequestered for afforestation/reforestation using long rotation sal (Shorea robusta Gaertn.f) species, as opposed to offset of 412 Mg C ha⁻¹ for carbon storage and fossil fuel substitution for short rotation poplar (Populus Deltoides Marsh) plantations. The bioenergy option results in a continuous stream of about 3 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ of carbon benefits per year on forest land and 4 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ on non-forest land. Earlier studies have shown that in India waste land availability for establishing energy plantations is in the range of 9.6 to 36.5 Mha. Thus, using the 758 Tg biomass per year generated from 9.6 Mha waste land gives a mitigation potential in the range of 227 to 303 Tg C per year for carbon storage and fossil fuel substitution from poplar plantation for substituting coal based power generation. Depending upon the land availability for plantation, the potential for energy generation is in the range of 11,370 PJ, possibly amounting to a bioenergy supply of 43% of the total projected energy consumption in 2015. Further studies are needed to estimate the mitigation potential of other species with different productivities for overall estimation of the economic feasibility and social acceptability in a tropical country like India.     

Carbon storage and sequestration potential of selected tree species in India

A dynamic growth model (CO2FIX) was used for estimating the carbon sequestration potential of sal (Shorea Robusta Gaertn. f.), Eucalyptus (Eucalyptus Tereticornis Sm.), poplar (Populus Deltoides Marsh), and teak (Tectona Grandis Linn. f.) forests in India. The results indicate that long-term total carbon storage ranges from 101 to 156 Mg C?ha^?1, with the largest carbon stock in the living biomass of long rotation sal forests (82 Mg C?ha^?1). The net annual carbon sequestration rates were achieved for fast growing short rotation poplar (8 Mg C?ha^?1?yr^?1) and Eucalyptus (6 Mg C?ha^?1?yr^?1) plantations followed by moderate growing teak forests (2 Mg C?ha^?1?yr^?1) and slow growing long rotation sal forests (1 Mg C?ha^?1?yr^?1). Due to fast growth rate and adaptability to a range of environments, short rotation plantations, in addition to carbon storage rapidly produce biomass for energy and contribute to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. We also used the model to evaluate the effect of changing rotation length and thinning regime on carbon stocks of forest ecosystem (trees?+?soil) and wood products, respectively for sal and teak forests. The carbon stock in soil and products was less sensitive than carbon stock of trees to the change in rotation length. Extending rotation length from the recommended 120 to 150 years increased the average carbon stock of forest ecosystem (trees?+?soil) by 12%. The net primary productivity was highest (3.7 Mg ha^?1?yr^?1) when a 60-year rotation length was applied but decreased with increasing rotation length (e.g., 1.7 Mg ha^?1?yr^?1) at 150 years. Goal of maximum carbon storage and production of more valuable saw logs can be achieved from longer rotation lengths. ‘No thinning’ has the largest biomass, but from an economical perspective, there will be no wood available from thinning operations to replace fossil fuel for bioenergy and to the pulp industry and such patches have high risks of forest fires, insects etc. Extended rotation lengths and reduced thinning intensity could enhance the long-term capacity of forest ecosystems to sequester carbon. While accounting for effects of climate change, a combination of bioenergy and carbon sequestration will be best to mitigation of CO₂ emission in the long term.     

Climate change mitigation and international finance: the effectiveness of the Clean Development Mechanism and the Global Environment Facility in India and Brazil

This study analyzes the effectiveness and efficiency of the two principal United Nations (UN) climate change mitigation finance mechanisms, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). The realised abatement and costs of the two mechanisms in India and Brazil (using data from 28 GEF and 233 CDM project documents) are compared with theoretical marginal abatement cost curves, based on bottom-up technology studies. We find that both mechanisms have focused on negative and low-cost abatement potential but still leave substantial theoretical potential in this cost range untapped. CDM has more effectively harvested abatement potential of industrial gases and methane emissions, whereas GEF has more successfully targeted demand-side energy efficiency (EE) and transport emission reduction opportunities. CDM has excelled at capturing abatement potential in areas with a limited understanding of abatement, highlighting the shortcomings of theoretical estimates (such as Marginal Abatement Cost Curves) and the benefits of a market mechanism. In some sectors and technologies (particularly renewable energy), the two mechanisms overlapped, which suggests a need for better coordination in the future.     

Pledges for climate mitigation: the effects of the Copenhagen accord on CO2 emissions and mitigation costs

The UN Framework Convention of Climate Change 15th Conference of the Parties Copenhagen Accord has been followed up by national pledges of greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the year 2020 without specifying measures to enforce actions. As a consequence, the capacity of parties to fulfil their obligations is of basic interest. This article outlines the effects of full compliance with pledges on greenhouse gas emissions, economic growth, and trade. The study is based on the global computable general equilibrium model global responses to anthropogenic changes in the environment (GRACE) distinguishing between fossil and non-fossil energy use. Global emissions from fossil fuels in 2020 turn out to be 15 % lower than in a business as usual scenario and 3 % below the global emissions from fossil fuels in 2005. China and India increase their emissions to 1 % and 5 % above business as usual levels in 2020. India and Russia increase their net export of steel corresponding to around 30 and 45 % of their production levels in 2020. In spite of some leakage of energy intensive production also to China, we find that structural change remains the dominant factor behind the rapid reduction of CO₂ emission intensity in China towards 2020.     

中国、印度及环境

——中印合作可以降低生物多样性损失、减轻气候变化并减少森林砍伐。中国和印度这两个新兴的世界经济大国将对21世纪世界环境发挥重要甚至主导作用。在未来几年内,两国的经济增长率预期将维持8%～9%。在世界很多国家出现经济危机情况下,中印两国2009年仍实现了国内生产总值高增长(中国:8.4%,印度:6.2%,世     

Policy and technological constraints to implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation options in agriculture

A recent assessment of agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has demonstrated significant potential for mitigation, but suggests that the full mitigation will not be realized due to significant barriers to implementation. In this paper, we explore the constraints and barriers to implementation important for GHG mitigation in agriculture. We also examine how climate and non-climate policy in different regions of the world has affected agricultural GHG emissions in the recent past, and how it may affect emissions and mitigation implementation in the future. We examine the links between mitigation and adaptation and drives for sustainable development and the potential for agricultural GHG mitigation in the future.We describe how some countries have initiated climate and non-climate policies believed to have direct effects or synergistic effects on mitigating GHG emissions from agriculture. Global sharing of innovative technologies for efficient use of land resources and agricultural chemicals, to eliminate poverty and malnutrition, will significantly mitigate GHG emissions from agriculture.Previous studies have shown that as less than 30% of the total biophysical potential for agricultural GHG mitigation might be achieved by 2030, due to price- and non-price-related barriers to implementation. The challenge for successful agricultural GHG mitigation will be to remove these barriers by implementing creative policies. Identifying policies that provide benefits for climate, as well as for aspects of economic, social and environmental sustainability, will be critical for ensuring that effective GHG mitigation options are widely implemented in the future.     

《能效融资:巴西、中国、印度的教训及其他》

随着能源价格和温室气体排放激增,同时中国、印度和巴西的能源需求高涨,能否在这些发展中大国成功地开展节能工作,与全世界利害攸关。世界银行于2008年2月27日发布的一本新书《能效融资：巴西、中国、印度的教训及其他》（简称《能效融资》）如是说。     

Energy and Carbon Embodied in the International Trade of Brazil

Shifting the economicstructure of a country towardsenergy-intensive industries may lead tosignificant effect on the environment. Oneof the major environmental impactsassociated to such changes is the increaseof the Carbon Dioxide emissions – the mainfactor behind the greenhouse effect. In thelast decades, structural changes in theBrazilian economy were close related tochanges in the country's tradespecialization. This paper analyzes to whatextent energy use and its associatedCO₂ emissions of Brazil in the 90's maybe overloaded by changes in the country'strade specialization towards a moreenergy-intensive mix. This study finds thatBrazil exported, in net terms, significantamounts of energy and carbon (C) embodied ingoods traded with the rest of the world inthe 90's. In fact, some 6.6% of the finalenergy used by the industrial sector andaround 7.1% of its C emissions areprompted by international trade. Byoverloading the country's energy use andits associated environmental damage (bothlocal and global), this situation seems tocontribute to increase not only local butalso global environmental damage, sinceC leakage from non-Annex I countriesdue to international trade may lead tohigher C concentration in theatmosphere.     

中国、印度和世界的新秩序

中国和印度几乎同时出现在世界舞台表明国际事务的架构发生了史无前例的变化.这两个占世界人口40%的巨人,其人口相当于位居其后的20个人口最多国家的人口总和.在十九和二十世纪,这两个巨人长期在主宰国际事务的欧洲、日本和美国的阴影之下沉睡.     

Analysis of leakage in carbon sequestration projects in forestry: a case study of upper magat watershed,Philippines

The role of forestry projects in carbon conservation and sequestration is receiving much attention because of their role in the mitigation of climate change. The main objective of the study is to analyze the potential of the Upper Magat Watershed for a carbon sequestration project. The three main development components of the project are forest conservation: tree plantations, and agroforestry farm development. At Year 30, the watershed can attain a net carbon benefit of 19.5 M tC at a cost of US$ 34.5 M. The potential leakage of the project is estimated using historical experience in technology adoption in watershed areas in the Philippines and a high adoption rate. Two leakage scenarios were used: baseline and project leakage scenarios. Most of the leakage occurs in the first 10 years of the project as displacement of livelihood occurs during this time. The carbon lost via leakage is estimated to be 3.7 M tC in the historical adoption scenario, and 8.1 M tC under the enhanced adoption scenario.     

Capital assets and institutional constraints to implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation options in agriculture

Agriculture is one of the major sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. It accounts for approximately 15% of the total global anthropogenic emissions of GHGs. Emissions could be twice as much if indirect emissions are also taken into the consideration. However, unlike other high emitting sectors such as transport or energy, agriculture is potentially a significant carbon “sink”. It has high technical potential as a carbon sink and if tapped, can substantially enhance global sequestration efforts. The technical potential, however, may not translate into actual GHG reduction because of the capital assets and institutional constraints faced by the smallholder farmers in the developing countries. In this paper we develop a capital assets based framework of physical, financial, social, human and natural barriers to agricultural carbon mitigation initiatives and through analysis of current initiatives, we set out policy based options to reduce each of these barriers. Fundamentally, barrier removal will entail designing agricultural carbon mitigation initiatives in collaboration with farmer communities, through strengthening local institutions, understanding land tenure and natural resource cultures, ensuring legitimacy and equity in payments and fast tracking training and information. We provide a framework that simultaneously aids the dual objectives of alleviating poverty in the poor farming communities of developing countries and lowering global greenhouse gas emissions.     

Greenhouse gas fluxes and mitigation potential for managed lands in the Russian Federation

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - This work aims to assess the dynamics of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals, as well as analyse the mitigation potential for...