Calibration and uncertainty analysis of a simple model of silica-limited diatom growth in the Elbe River

A simple Lagrangian water quality model was designed to investigate the hypothesis of sporadic silica limitations of diatom growth in the lower Elbe River in Germany. For each fluid parcel a limited reservoir of silica was specified to be consumed by diatoms. The model's simplicity notwithstanding, a set of six selected model parameters could not be fully identified from existing observations at one station. After the introduction of prior knowledge of the ranges of meaningful parameter values, calibration of the over-parameterised model manifested itself primarily in the generation of posterior parameter covariances. Estimations of the covariance matrix based on (a) second order partial derivatives of a quadratic cost function at its optimum and (b) Monte Carlo simulations exploring the whole space of parameter values gave consistent results. Diagonalisation of the covariance matrix yielded two linear parameter combinations that were most effectively controlled by data from periods with and without lack of silica, respectively. The two parameter combinations were identified as the essential inputs that govern the successful simulation of intermittently decreasing chlorophyll a concentrations in summer. A satisfactory simulation of the pronounced chlorophyll a minimum in spring, by contrast, was found to be beyond the means of the simple model.     

Numerical simulation for impacts of hydrodynamic conditions on algae growth in Chongqing Section of Jialing River, China

Hydrodynamic conditions are important factors for planktonic algae growth, through introducing two parameters which express the optimal velocity and the velocity range for planktonic algae growth, a new velocity factor was put forward for the formula of growth rate. Therefore, the two-dimensional unsteady ecological dynamic model for algae growth was established to analyze the effects of hydrodynamic conditions on algae growth in Chongqing Reach of Jialing River in China. The temporal and spatial distribution of Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration was simulated numerically for various water levels, under climate conditions in period of high frequency for algae blooms of Three Gorges Reservoir and nutrition status at present in the research reach. The corresponding locations and areas of likely algae blooms were analyzed and forecasted. The results showed that about 0.04 m s⁻¹ was the optimal velocity for algae growth, and the occurrence of algae blooms in large scale is almost impossible because of relatively high water flow velocity for Jialing River.     

A simple population theory for mutualism by the use of lattice gas model

The population dynamics of species interactions provides valuable information for life sciences. Lotka-Volterra equations (LVEs) are known to be the most popular model, and they are mainly applied to the systems of predation and competition. However, LVEs often fail to catch the population dynamics of mutualism; the population sizes of species increase infinitely under certain condition (divergence problem). Furthermore, LVEs never predicts the Allee effect in the systems of obligate mutualism. Instead of LVEs, several models have been presented for mutualism; unfortunately, they are rather complicated. It is, therefore, necessary to introduce a simpler theory for mutualism. In the present paper, we apply the lattice gas model which corresponds to the mean-field theory of the usual lattice model. The derived equations are cubic and contain only essential features for mutualism. In the case of obligate mutualism, the dynamics exhibits the Allee effect, and it is almost the same as in the male-female systems. In our model, the population sizes never increase infinitely, because our model contains not only intra- but also interspecific competitions. If the density of one species increases disproportionately in respect of its mutual partners, then this might imply downward pressure on the population abundance of the mutual partner species and such feedback would eventually act as a controlling influence on the population abundance of either species. We discuss several assumptions in our model; in particular, if both species can occupy in each cell simultaneously, then the interspecific competition disappears.     

A spatial model of white sturgeon rearing habitat in the lower Columbia River,USA

Concerns over the potential effects of in-water placement of dredged materials prompted us to develop a GIS-based model that characterizes in a spatially explicit manner white sturgeon Acipenser transmontanus rearing habitat in the lower Columbia River, USA. The spatial model was developed using water depth, riverbed slope and roughness, fish positions collected in 2002, and Mahalanobis distance (D²). We created a habitat suitability map by identifying a Mahalanobis distance under which >50% of white sturgeon locations occurred in 2002 (i.e., high-probability habitat). White sturgeon preferred relatively moderate to high water depths, and low to moderate riverbed slope and roughness values. The eigenvectors indicated that riverbed slope and roughness were slightly more important than water depth, but all three variables were important. We estimated the impacts that fill might have on sturgeon habitat by simulating the addition of fill to the thalweg, in 3-m increments, and recomputing Mahalanobis distances. Channel filling simulations revealed that up to 9 m of fill would have little impact on high-probability habitat, but 12 and 15 m of fill resulted in habitat declines of ∼12% and ∼45%, respectively. This is the first spatially explicit predictive model of white sturgeon rearing habitat in the lower Columbia River, and the first to quantitatively predict the impacts of dredging operations on sturgeon habitat. Future research should consider whether water velocity improves the accuracy and specificity of the model, and to assess its applicability to other areas in the Columbia River.     

A simple individual model for simulating weight gain dynamics in response to intake rate and daily behavior

It is often necessary to estimate the weight that an individual may be capable of gaining depending on its degree of activity. A simple individual-based model was developed for studying the dynamics of weight in terms of daily behavior and ingestion rate. It was based on the balance between the individual's energy intake and the cost of its daily activities. Costs depend on the weight of the individual and the photoperiod, as well as on the time spent on each activity. Different combinations of ingestion rate, individual's weight, photoperiod length, and time assigned to different activities were used for simulating the weight dynamics, taking the species Rhea americana as a study case. Estimations of energetic costs of the activities were obtained from specialized literature. Using different photoperiods and individual behaviors, the model yields field metabolic rate (FMR) values in agreement with those obtained from direct measurements for other omnivorous bird species.     

Impacts of climate change/variability on the streamflow in the Yellow River Basin, China

Changes of streamflow reflect combined effects of climate, soil and vegetation in the basin scale. This study was conducted to investigate the response of streamflow to the climate changes/variability in different scales of the Yellow River Basin (YRB). The spatial distribution and temporal trends were explored for precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PE) during 1961-2000 to illustrate climate change/variability and impacts of climate change/variability on streamflow were explained by investigating the relationship of precipitation, PE and streamflow in the YRB. The results presented that: (i) precipitation and PE exhibited different spatial distribution patterns and temporal trends in different regions, and most stations showed negative trends for precipitation in the basin; (ii) the relationship of streamflow with precipitation and PE showed high nonlinearity, and the magnitudes and patterns of streamflow response to precipitation and PE displayed different patterns varied with the dry conditions in different region or years; and (iii) the precipitation elasticity of streamflow (?_P) was 1.80, 1.08, 1.78 and 1.95 in Lanzhou, Toudaoguai, Huayuankou and Lijin respectively, while the PE elasticity of streamflow (?_ET) was −3.41, −4.40, −4.52 and −4.20 in above four scales, respectively, from which can be seen that streamflow was more sensitive to precipitation in wet region than in arid region and inversely it was more sensitive to PE in arid regions than in wet regions. Furthermore, precipitation elasticity of streamflow calculated from the partial correlation presented a reasonable result to show the combined effect of precipitation and PE on streamflow.     

Nutrient-limited toxin production and the dynamics of two phytoplankton in culture media: A mathematical model

In this paper we have proposed and analyzed a simple mathematical model consisting of four variables, viz., nutrient concentration, toxin producing phytoplankton (TPP), non-toxic phytoplankton (NTP), and toxin concentration. Limitation in the concentration of the extracellular nutrient has been incorporated as an environmental stress condition for the plankton population, and the liberation of toxic chemicals has been described by a monotonic function of extracellular nutrient. The model is analyzed and simulated to reproduce the experimental findings of Graneli and Johansson [Graneli, E., Johansson, N., 2003. Increase in the production of allelopathic Prymnesium parvum cells grown under N- or P-deficient conditions. Harmful Algae 2, 135–145]. The robustness of the numerical experiments are tested by a formal parameter sensitivity analysis. As the first theoretical model consistent with the experiment of Graneli and Johansson (2003), our results demonstrate that, when nutrient-deficient conditions are favorable for the TPP population to release toxic chemicals, the TPP species control the bloom of other phytoplankton species which are non-toxic. Consistent with the observations made by Graneli and Johansson (2003), our model overcomes the limitation of not incorporating the effect of nutrient-limited toxic production in several other models developed on plankton dynamics.     

A model of nematode dynamics in the Westerschelde Estuary

We developed a time dynamic model to investigate the temporal dynamics of nematode community in the brackish zone of the Westerschelde Estuary. The biomass of four nematode feeding groups observed from March 1991 to February 1992 is used to calibrate the model. Using environmental data as the input, the model predicts the temporal modification and interrelation of four nematode feeding groups. Nematodes achieve a dominant position in the community because of their lower loss rate (in respiration, excretion and natural death). Predators which are deposit-feeding macrobenthos control the variations of dominant nematodes, such as omnivores and non-selective deposit feeders. Food availability causes modification only for rare nematodes such as epigrowth feeders and selective deposit feeders. Temperature is a factor affecting both predation death and a loss including respiration, excretion and natural death. Overall, the modification of nematode community by food availability is much lower than by predator. The macrobenthos in the Westerschelde Estuary decrease from upstream to the estuarine mouth. The stability and standing stock of nematode population follow the opposite gradient of their predators. They increase from upstream to the estuarine mouth.     

A simulation framework for water allocation to meet the environmental requirements of urban rivers: model development and a case study for the Liming River in Daqing City,China

In this paper, we describe the development of a simulation framework for allocating water from different sources to meet the environmental flows of an urban river. The model permits the development of a rational balance in the utilization of storm water, reclaimed water from wastewater treatment plants, and freshwater from reservoirs with consideration of the limited capacities of different water resources. It is designed to permit the full utilization of unconventional water sources for the restoration of river water quality by increasing river flow and improving water quality. To demonstrate practical use of the model, a case study is presented in which the model was used to simulate the environmental water allocation for the Liming River in Daqing City, China, based on the three water sources mentioned above. The results demonstrate that the model provides an effective approach for helping managers allocate water to satisfy the river’s environmental water requirements.     

A multi-objective optimization approach to allocate environmental flows to the artificially restored wetlands of China's Yellow River Delta

In this paper, a multi-objective optimization model has been developed for allocating freshwater to meet the environmental flow requirements of the restored wetlands in the Yellow River Delta, China. The model seeks a rational balance among appropriate water allocation for the wetlands, a healthy ecosystem, and optimum economic returns for the humans that use the wetlands to earn their livelihood, with the degree of ecosystem health represented by the difference between actual and ideal water levels. And then a holistic method has been used for satisfying multiple objectives to avoid the problem of decision-maker subjectivity, and then solved the resulting optimal allocation model for environmental flows of the wetlands using a genetic algorithm. With water from the Yellow River as the source, the model shows how the optimal monthly water release into the restored wetlands can be achieved in dry, average, and wet years. Using the model, 20-56% reductions in water use could be achieved compared with the current pattern of water release, and the optimal water level in each month would coincide better with the ideal value based on an indicator plant community (reeds). The results of the study demonstrate the capability of the multi-objective programming model to optimize ecological water allocation and management for the wetlands of the Yellow River Delta.     

珠江三角洲城市周边典型中小型水库富营养化与蓝藻种群动态

为了解珠江三角洲地区城市周边中小型水库的水质状况,于2009年8月(丰水期)和2010年3月(枯水期)调查了4座典型中小型水库--横岗水库、水濂山水库、契爷石水库和东风水库,分析了水库的富营养化与蓝藻种类组成、种群动态及微囊藻毒素水平.丰水期总磷浓度为0.05～0.083 mgL-1,枯水期为0.026～0.082 m...     

An agent based model to simulate structural and land use changes in agricultural systems of the argentine pampas

The Argentine Pampas, one of the main agricultural areas in the world, recently has undergone significant changes in land use and structural characteristics of agricultural production systems. Concerns about the environmental and societal impacts of the changes motivated development of an agent-based model (ABM) to gain insight on processes underlying recent observed patterns. The model is described following a standard protocol (ODD). Results are discussed for an initial set of simplified simulations performed to understand the processes that generated and magnified the changes in the Pampas. Changes in the structure of agricultural production and land tenure seem to be driven by differences among farmers’ ability to generate sufficient agricultural income to remain in business. In turn, as no off-farm or credit is modeled, economic sustainability is tied to initial resource endowment (area cropped). Farmers operating small areas are economically unviable and must lease out their farms to farmers operating larger areas. This leads to two patterns: (a) a concentration of production (fewer farmers operating larger areas) and, (b) an increase in the area operated by tenants. The simulations showed an increase of soybean area, linked to the higher profitability of this crop. Despite the stylized nature of initial simulations, all emerging patterns are highly consistent with changes observed in the Pampas.     

A simulation model to evaluate the impacts of invasive earthworms on soil carbon dynamics

Recent studies have reported that earthworm invasions alter native communities and impact nutrient cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. We developed a simulation model to evaluate the potential impacts of earthworm invasions on carbon dynamics, taking into consideration earthworm feeding strategies and priming effects on the microorganisms through their casting activities. Responses of carbon stocks (forest litter, soil organic matter, microbial biomass and earthworm populations) and carbon fluxes (litter decomposition, earthworm consumption, and microbial respiration) were used to evaluate an earthworm invasion of a forest ecosystem. Data from a northern temperate forest (Arnot Forest, New York) were adapted for model calibration and evaluation. Simulation results suggest that the impact and outcome of earthworm invasions are affected by pre-invasion resource availability (litter and soil organic matter), invasive earthworm assemblages (particularly feeding strategy), and invasion history (associated with earthworm population dynamics). The abovementioned factors may also determine invasion progress of earthworm species. The accuracy of the model could be improved by the addition of environmental modules (e.g., soil water regimes), precise parameters accounting for individual species attributes under different environmental conditions (e.g. utilization ability of different types of food resources), as well as earthworm population dynamics (size and structure) and interactions with predators and other invasive/indigenous species during the invasion progress. Such an earthworm invasion model could provide valuable evaluation of the complicated responses of carbon dynamics to earthworm invasions in a range of forest ecosystems, particularly under global change scenarios.     

黄河源区退化高寒草地土壤种子库:种子萌发的数量和动态

对青藏高原黄河源区不同退化程度高寒草地的土壤种子库土样用土壤分析筛进行浓缩,并以萌发法分析土壤种子库萌发种子数量和动态.结果表明,孔径0.25~2 mm的土壤分析筛分离土样中萌发种子可达萌发种子总量的85%~97%,而小于0.25 mm的土样中未发现种子.因此,用0.25 mm孔径大小的土壤筛对高寒草地土壤种子库土样进行大规模浓缩是一种方便、可靠的方法.4种不同退化程度高寒草地(A:未退化草甸;B:轻度退化草甸;C:中度退化草甸;D:重度退化草甸)的土壤种子库在实验室条件下萌发的种子数量分别为:A 1 194~3 744粒/m2,平均2 421.3粒/m2;B 5 376~1 0912粒/m2,平均7 786.7粒/m2;C 2 304~1 3216粒/m2,平均8 695.5粒/m2;D 4 768~12 352粒/m2,平均8 125.9粒/m2.除样地A外,其它3个样地的可萌发种子数量差异不大.单子叶植物种子在培养到d 10左右开始萌发,双子叶植物在5~7 d内开始萌发,前者3 wk后基本不再萌发,后者5 wk左右停止萌发.4个样地土壤种子库种子萌发主要集中在第2~3周,并表现出近似单峰型格局.图1表3参39     

Modeling changes in the coastal ecosystem of the Pearl River Estuary from 1981 to 1998

The coastal ecosystem of the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) has been overfished and received a high level of combined pollution since the 1980s. Ecopath with Ecosim was used to construct two ecosystem models (for 1981 and 1998) to characterize the food web structure and functioning of the ecosystem. Pedigree work and simple sensitivity analysis were carried out to evaluate the quality of data and the uncertainty of the models. The two models seem reliable with regards to input data of good quality. Comparing the variations of outputs of these two models aimed to facilitate assessment of changes of the ecosystem during the past two decades.The trophic structure of the ecosystem has changed with an increase in the biomass proportion of lower trophic level (TL) organisms and a decrease in top predator biomass proportion. All the indices of ecosystem maturity examined show that the system was in a more mature condition in 1981 than in 1998, although the system has been in a condition of stress due to anthropogenic disturbances, such as environmental pollution and habitat destruction since 1981. The ecosystem was aggregated into six and seven integral TLs in 1981 and 1998, respectively, using the trophic aggregation routine of Ecopath. Most of the total system biomass and catch took place at TL II and III in both years. But the distribution of the total system biomass and catch at different TLs changed with decreasing proportions in higher TLs in 1998. The mean transfer efficiency was 9.1% and 10.2% in 1981 and 1998, respectively.Comparative network analysis allowed quantification of the importance of direct and indirect trophic interactions among functional groups. Moreover, a method derived from the mixed trophic impact (MTI) analysis allowed estimating importance of groups in terms of “keystoneness” and identifying the keystone species in the two models over the past two decades. The results indicate that there were no clear keystone species in 1998 but two keystone species at medium trophic levels were identified in 1981. Moreover, organisms located at low trophic levels such as phytoplankton, zooplankton and benthic invertebrates were identified to have relatively high keystoneness in the ecosystem.     

珠江三角洲典型地区蔬菜重金属污染现状研究--以中山市和东莞市为例

以珠江三角洲典型地区中山市与东莞市为研究对象，通过对其大型蔬菜生产基地中10种蔬菜76个样品中重金属元素铬、铅、镉和汞的含量进行分析，初步摸清了珠江三角洲典型地区中山市与东莞市蔬菜中的重金属污染状况，并在不同城市不同蔬菜品种之间的污染程度进行了比较。结果表明，蔬菜中铬、铅、镉、汞的平均含量分别为0．1719、0．0962、0．0257和0.0014mg/kg，其中铬、铅、镉含量超出了国家卫生标准的允许量的蔬菜样品分别有1．3％、13，2％与13．2％；4种重金属在10种蔬菜中的平均残留量由大到小依次为：铬→铅→镉→汞；铅、镉是珠江三角洲典型地区中山市与东莞市蔬菜中的主要污染元素。     

雅砻江流域生长季植被时空变化特征及对气象因子的响应分析

在全球气候变化背景下,开展植被变化对气象因子的响应研究对流域生态环境保护和水土资源合理利用具有重要的现实意义.以雅砻江流域为研究区,基于1982—2015年GIMMS NDVI数据,首先采用多种数理统计方法揭示生长季NDVI的时空变化特征,基于滞后相关系数法分析NDVI对气象因子的时滞效应,在此基础上建立各像元NDVI...     

A stochastic Lagrangian micromixing model for the dispersion of reactive scalars in turbulent flows: role of concentration fluctuations and improvements to the conserved scalar theory under non-homogeneous conditions

Several reaction schemes, based on the conserved scalar theory, are implemented within a stochastic Lagrangian micromixing model to simulate the dispersion of reactive scalars in turbulent flows. In particular, the formulation of the reaction-dominated limit (RDL) reaction scheme is here extended to improve the model performance under non-homogeneous conditions (NHRDL scheme). The validation of the stochastic model is obtained by comparison with the available measurements of reactive pollutant concentrations in a grid-generated turbulent flow. This test case describes the dispersion of two atmospheric reactant species (NO and O₃) and their reaction product (NO₂) in an unbounded turbulent flow. Model inter-comparisons are also assessed, by considering the results of state-of-the-art models for pollutant dispersion. The present validation shows that RDL reaction scheme provides a systematic overestimation (relative error of ca. 85% around the centreline) in computing the local reactant consumption/production rate, whereas the NHRDL scheme drastically reduces this gap (relative error lower than 5% around the centreline). In terms of NO₂ production (or reactant consumption), neglecting concentration fluctuations determines overestimations of the product mean of around 100% and a NO₂ local production of one order of magnitude higher than the reference simulation. In terms of standard deviations, the concentration fluctuations of both the passive and reactive scalars are generally of the same order of magnitude or up to 1 or 2 orders of magnitudes higher than the corresponding ensemble mean values, except for the background reactant close to the plume edges. The study highlights the importance of modelling pollutant reactions depending on the instantaneous instead of the mean concentrations of the reactants, thus quantifying the role of the turbulent fluctuations of concentration, in terms of scalar statistics (mean, standard deviation, intensity of fluctuations, skewness and kurtosis of concentration, segregation coefficient, simulated reaction rate). This stochastic particle method represents an efficient numerical technique to solve the convection–diffusion equation for reactive scalars and involves several application fields: micro-scale air quality (urban and street-canyon scales), accidental releases, impact of odours, water quality and fluid flow industrial processes (e.g. combustion).     

完善我国流域生态补偿制度的思考——以东江流域为例

上下游对流域生态资源保护做出的贡献与生态利益享有的不平等导致区域间社会经济差距的扩大,需要通过生态补偿制度的建立和完善来实现区域统筹和谐发展,但我国现行生态补偿制度由于行政区界限制、相关法规建设不完善、补偿方式较单一、补偿标准测算困难等原因面临不少问题和困境。以东江流域现行生态补偿措施为视点,分析了当前生态补偿研究实践中存在的问题;进而以此为基点根据流域生态系统的连贯性与人类政治结构分割性之间的矛盾进行反思,提出打破流域行政区界限制,统筹构建流域“生态共同体”的理念;并在此理念指导下,提出采取“政府主导、市场运作”策略。即在明确界定流域范围后,首先由“政府主导”开展全流域综合规划、建立和完善省内流域统管机制、跨省流域生态共享共建统筹协商机制;其次以水质水量、出售许可交易权方式测算“生态共同体”之间核算补偿资金,并结合“市场运作”实施多样化并进补偿方式;同时建立流域生态补偿奖惩制度并将其纳入“生态共同体”干部绩效考核体系,构建流域补偿的长效机制,完善我国流域生态补偿制度。