Sensitivity of stand dynamics to grazing in mixed Pinus sylvestris and Quercus pubescens forests: A modelling study

Only recently, studies of forest succession have started to include the effects of browsing by wild or domestic ungulates. We aim to contribute to this topic by analysing the influence of goat grazing on the long-term coexistence of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) in the low-elevation forests of an inner-Alpine dry valley. The forest gap model ForClim was first adapted to these site conditions by examining the site-dependent sensitivity of the model with regard to the species-specific parameterisation of the drought tolerance as well as the light demand of establishing and adult trees. In a second step, the behaviour of the model was investigated with respect to different grazing intensities and species-specific browsing susceptibilities. The last step was the application of a grazing scenario based on forest history, with 150 years of heavy browsing (by goats) at the beginning of the simulated forest succession, followed by less intensive grazing pressure.     

间伐对生态公益林冠层结构及土壤养分的影响

为定量分析上海城郊生态公益林间伐后林分冠层结构变化及对林下环境的影响,2009年7月采用TRAC植物冠层分析仪研究了香樟（Cinnamomum camphora）、杜英（Elaeocarpus sylvestris）和栾树（Koelreuteria paniculata）3种生态公益林间伐2年后林分冠层结构参数,设置临时样方调查各林分林下植物分布及生物量,测定了土壤N、P、K和有机质的变化。结果表明：间伐后3种林分的LAI、丛生指数和平均接触次数均降低,而间隙分数增大。间伐增加了林分间隙和LAI的空间异质性,间伐后3个树种LAI变异系数增加了19%～45%。轻度间伐后香樟、杜英和栾树林下PPFD（Photosynthetic Photon Flux Density）分别是未间伐林分的1.6、7和2.1倍,重度间伐香樟林内PPFD增大了8.9倍。间伐后林下植物种类、总盖度和干生物量随林下PPFD增加呈增大趋势。除全P和全K含量没有变化外,林地土壤全N、速效K、速效P和有机质含量均比未间伐林地有不同程度降低,但轻度间伐杜英林地速效养分消耗显著高于香樟和栾树林分。因此,研究区生态公益林结构调控需根据树种特性和林下环境变化,确定适宜的发展模式,提高公益林的综合效益。     

Influences of canopy structure and physiological traits on flux partitioning between understory and overstory in an eastern Siberian boreal larch forest

Boreal forests play an important role in the global balance of energy and CO₂. Our previous study of elaborate eddy covariance observations in a Siberian boreal larch forest, conducted both above the forest canopy and at the forest floor, revealed a significant contribution of latent heat flux (LE) from the cowberry understory to the whole ecosystem LE. Thus, in the present study, we examined what factors control the partitioning of whole ecosystem LE and CO₂ flux into the understory and overstory vegetation, using detailed leaf-level physiology (for both understory and overstory vegetation) and soil respiration property measurements as well as a multilayer soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) model. The modeling results showed that the larch overstory's leaf area index (LAI) and vertical profile of leaf photosynthetic capacity were major factors determining the flux partitioning in this boreal forest ecosystem. This is unlike other forest ecosystems that tend to have dense LAI. We concluded that control of the larch overstory's LAI had a relationship with both the coexistence of the larch with the cowberry understory and with the water resources available to the total forest ecosystem.     

Slope,aspect and climate: Spatially explicit and implicit models of topographic microclimate in chalk grassland

The slope and aspect of a vegetated surface strongly affects the amount of solar radiation intercepted by that surface. Solar radiation is the dominant component of the surface energy balance and influences ecologically critical factors of microclimate, including near-surface temperatures, evaporative demand and soil moisture content. It also determines the exposure of vegetation to photosynthetically active and ultra-violet wavelengths. Spatial variation in slope and aspect is therefore a key determinant of vegetation pattern, species distribution and ecosystem processes in many environments. Slope and aspect angle may vary considerably over distances of a few metres, and fine-scale species’ distribution patterns frequently follow these topographic patterns. The availability of suitable microclimate at such scales may be critical for the response of species distributions to climatic change at much larger spatial scales. However, quantifying the relevant microclimatic gradients is not straightforward, as the potential variation in solar radiation flux under clear-sky conditions is modified by local and regional variations in cloud cover, and interacts with long-wave radiation exchange, local meteorology and surface characteristics.     

A spatially explicit empirical model of structural development processes in natural forests based on climate and topography

Stand structure develops with stand age. Old-growth forests with well-developed stand structure support many species. However, development rates of stand structure likely vary with climate and topography. We modeled structural development of 4 key stand variables and a composite old-growth index as functions of climatic and topographic covariates. We used a hierarchical Bayesian method for analysis of extensive snap-shot National Forest Inventory (NFI) data in Japan (n = 9244) to account for differences in stand age. Development rates of structural variables and the old-growth index exhibited curvilinear responses to environmental covariates. Flat sites were characterized by high rates of structural development. Approximately 150 years were generally required to attain high values (approximately 0.8) of the old-growth index. However, the predicted age to achieve specific values varied depending on environmental conditions. Spatial predictions highlighted regional variation in potential structural development rates. For example, sometimes there were differences of >100 years among sites, even in the same catchment, in attainment of a medium index value (0.5) after timber harvesting. The NFI data suggested that natural forests, especially old natural forests (>150 years), remain generally on unproductive ridges, steep slopes, or areas with low temperature and deep snow, where many structural variables show slow development rates. We suggest that maintenance and restoration of old natural forests on flat sites should be prioritized for conservation due to the likely rapid development of stand structure, although remaining natural forests on low-productivity sites are still important and should be protected.     

The fire frequency analysis branch of the pyrostatistics tree: sampling decisions and censoring in fire interval data

Statistical characterization of past fire regimes is important for both the ecology and management of fire-prone ecosystems. Survival analysis—or fire frequency analysis as it is often called in the fire literature—has increasingly been used over the last few decades to examine fire interval distributions. These distributions can be generated from a variety of sources (e.g., tree rings and stand age patterns), and analysis typically involves fitting the Weibull model. Given the widespread use of fire frequency analysis and the increasing availability of mapped fire history data, our goal has been to review and to examine some of the issues faced in applying these methods in a spatially explicit context. In particular, through a case study on the massive Cedar Fire in 2003 in southern California, we examine sensitivities of parameter estimates to the spatial resolution of sampling, point- and area-based methods for assigning sample values, current age surfaces versus historical intervals in generating distributions, and the inclusion of censored (i.e., incomplete) observations. Weibull parameter estimates were found to be roughly consistent with previous fire frequency analyses for shrublands (i.e., median age at burning of ~30–50 years and relatively low age dependency). Results indicate, however, that the inclusion or omission of censored observations can have a substantial effect on parameter estimates, far more than other decisions about specifics of sampling.

Invasive species impacts on ecosystem structure and function: A comparison of Oneida Lake, New York, USA, before and after zebra mussel invasion

Exotic species invasion is widely considered to affect ecosystem structure and function. Yet, few contemporary approaches can assess the effects of exotic species invasion at such an inclusive level. Our research presents one of the first attempts to examine the effects of an exotic species at the ecosystem level in a quantifiable manner. We used ecological network analysis (ENA) and a social network analysis (SNA) method called cohesion analysis to examine the effect of zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) invasion on the Oneida Lake, New York, USA, food web. We used ENA to quantify ecosystem function through an analysis of food web carbon transfer that explicitly incorporated flow over all food web paths (direct and indirect). The cohesion analysis assessed ecosystem structure through an organization of food web members into subgroups of strongly interacting predators and prey. Our analysis detected effects of zebra mussel invasion throughout the entire Oneida Lake food web, including changes in trophic flow efficiency (i.e., carbon flow among trophic levels) and alterations of food web organization (i.e., paths of carbon flow) and ecosystem activity (i.e., total carbon flow). ENA indicated that zebra mussels altered food web function by shunting carbon from pelagic to benthic pathways, increasing dissipative flow loss, and decreasing ecosystem activity. SNA revealed the strength of zebra mussel perturbation as evidenced by a reorganization of food web subgroup structure, with a decrease in importance of pelagic pathways, a concomitant rise of benthic pathways, and a reorganization of interactions between top predator fish. Together, these analyses allowed for a holistic understanding of the effects of zebra mussel invasion on the Oneida Lake food web.     

Invasive species impacts on ecosystem structure and function: A comparison of the Bay of Quinte, Canada, and Oneida Lake, USA, before and after zebra mussel invasion

As invasion rates of exotic species increase, an ecosystem level understanding of their impacts is imperative for predicting future spread and consequences. We have previously shown that network analyses are powerful tools for understanding the effects of exotic species perturbation on ecosystems. We now use the network analysis approach to compare how the same perturbation affects another ecosystem of similar trophic status. We compared food web characteristics of the Bay of Quinte, Lake Ontario (Canada), to previous research on Oneida Lake, New York (USA) before and after zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) invasion. We used ecological network analysis (ENA) to rigorously quantify ecosystem function through an analysis of direct and indirect food web transfers. We used a social network analysis method, cohesion analysis (CA), to assess ecosystem structure by organizing food web members into subgroups of strongly interacting predators and prey. Together, ENA and CA allowed us to understand how food web structure and function respond simultaneously to perturbation. In general, zebra mussel effects on the Bay of Quinte, when compared to Oneida Lake, were similar in direction, but greater in magnitude. Both systems underwent functional changes involving focused flow through a small number of taxa and increased use of benthic sources of production; additionally, both systems structurally changed with subgroup membership changing considerably (33% in Oneida Lake) or being disrupted entirely (in the Bay of Quinte). However, the response of total ecosystem activity (as measured by carbon flow) differed between both systems, with increasing activity in the Bay of Quinte, and decreasing activity in Oneida Lake. Thus, these analyses revealed parallel effects of zebra mussel invasion in ecosystems of similar trophic status, yet they also suggested that important differences may exist. As exotic species continue to disrupt the structure and function of our native ecosystems, food web network analyses will be useful for understanding their far-reaching effects.     

Dynamics of soil organic matter in primary and secondary forest succession on sandy soils in The Netherlands: An application of the ROMUL model

We applied the simulation model ROMUL of soil organic matter dynamics in order to analyse and predict forest soil organic matter (SOM) changes following stand growth and also to identify gaps of data and modelling problems. SOM build-up was analysed (a) from bare sand to forest soil during a primary succession in Scots pine forest and (b) on mature forest soil under Douglas fir plantations as an example of secondary succession in The Netherlands. As some of the experimental data were unreliable we compiled a set of various scenarios with different soil moisture regime, initial SOM pools and amount and quality of above and below ground litter input. This allowed us to find the scenarios that reflect the SOM dynamics more realistically. In the Scots pine forest, total litter input was estimated as 0.50 kg m⁻² year⁻¹. Two scenarios were defined for the test runs: (a) forest floor moisture regimes—‘dry, mesic and hydric’ and (b) augmenting a root litter pool with three ratios of needles and branches to roots: 1:1, 1:1.5 and 1:2.0. The scenario finally compiled had the following characteristics: (a) climate for dry site with summer drought and high winter moisture of forest floor; (b) a litter input of 0.25 kg m⁻² year⁻¹ above ground and 0.50 kg m⁻² year⁻¹ below ground; (c) a low nitrogen and ash content in all litter fall fractions. The test runs for the estimation of the initial SOM pools and the amount and proportion of above and below ground litter fall were also performed in the Douglas fir plantation. The inputs of above ground litter tested in various combinations were 0.30 and 0.60 kg m⁻² year⁻¹, and below ground litter 0.30, 0.60 and 0.90 kg m⁻² year⁻¹. The scenario that fitted the experimental data had an SOM pool of 20–25 kg m⁻², an aboveground litter input of 0.6 kg m⁻² year⁻¹and a below ground litter input of 0.9 kg m⁻² year⁻¹. The long-term simulation corresponded well with the observed patterns of soil organic matter accumulation associated with the forest soil development in primary and secondary succession. During primary succession in Scots pine forest on dry sand there is a consistent accumulation of a raw humus forest floor. The soil dynamics in the Douglas fir plantation also coincide with the observed patterns of SOM changes during the secondary succession, with SOM decreasing significantly under young forest, and SOM being restored in the older stands.     

Agent-based framework for modeling and simulation of resources in self-sustainable human settlements: a case study on water management in an eco-village community in Croatia

A newly developed agent-based framework for modeling, simulation, and evaluation of resource management in self-sustainable human settlements is presented, along with the ability of the framework to prolong the self-sustainability of the observed human settlement system in the simulation environment. In this study the focus is on the analysis of a conducted water management simulation based on observations of an existing eco-village in Croatia, in the context of producing, storing, and consuming water as a resource. The conducted research shows that the developed framework was able to prolong the self-sustainability of localized water production, storage, and consumption dynamics when managing the water allocation with the use of self-sustainability mechanisms, in comparison to water management without using such mechanisms, under the same initial conditions. The work is placed within the context of sustainable development, Internet of Things, as well as Environmental Internet of Things areas of research, analyzing the ambiguous relationship between the terms ‘sustainable development’ and ‘self-sustainability’.     

Bayesian Joint Estimation of Binary Outcome and Time-to-event Data: Effects of Leaf Quality on Pupal Survival and Time-to-Emergence in the Winter Moth

Plant–herbivore interactions are complex and affect herbivore fitness components and life history traits in many different ways. In this paper, we present results from an experiment studying the effects of leaf quality on pupal survival and duration of pupation (as measured by time-to-emergence) in the winter moth. Because only surviving pupae are at risk of emerging, analysis of time-to-emergence should exclude the dead pupae. However, due to right censoring, the survival status could not be determined for each individual. This failure to determine the group of moths at risk of emerging a priori motivated the development of a joint model of both survival probability and time-to-emergence. We formulate the model in a Bayesian framework and apply Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) to obtain posterior distributions. Time-to-emergence is modeled by a Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH) model where only the surviving pupae are at risk of emergence. Probability of pupal survival was modeled by a Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM). The censored individuals were included in the analysis as a missing value in the GLMM. The GLMM then generated prior distributions of survival probabilties—and thus of the probability of being at risk of emergence—for these 19 individuals, conditional on the model parameters. The CPH model was formulated as a count process and the binary frailty was incorporated as a zero-inflated Poisson model. Zeros in this model represent the non-survivors. Leaf quality did not appear to influence time-to-emergence. Pupal survival was affected in a complex and unexpected way showing opposite effects in males and females. We also explored the robustness of our model against increased levels of censoring. While the degree of censoring was low in our study (< 1%), we artificially increased it to 67%. Although further study is required to study the generality of these results in a theoretical framework, our explorations suggest that the newly proposed technique may be widely applicable in a variety of situations where the identification of the at risk population cannot be done in a straightforward way. Received: January 2005 / Revised: June 2005     

Effects of salinity on soil bacterial and archaeal community in estuarine wetlands and its implications for carbon sequestration: verification in the Yellow River Delta

Soils from two typical tidal salt marshes with varied salinity in the Yellow River Delta wetland were analysed to determine possible effects of salinity on soil carbon sequestration through changes in soil microbiology. The mean soil respiration (SR) of the salt water–fresh water mixing zone (MZ) was 2.89 times higher than that of the coastal zone (CZ) (4.73 and 1.63?μmol?m^?2?s^?1, respectively, p?Pseudomonas sp. and Limnobacter sp. that might have led to its higher dehydrogenase activity and respiratory rates. Additionally, the CZ possessed more Halobacteria and Thaumarchaeota with the ability to fix CO₂ than the MZ. Significantly lower soil salinity in MZ (4.25?g?kg^?1) was suitable for β-Proteobacteria, but detrimental for Halobacteria compared with CZ (7.09?g?kg^?1, p?相似文献