A two-step local smoothing approach for exploring spatio-temporal patterns with application to the analysis of precipitation in the mainland of China during 1986–2005

There has been a growing interest on using local modelling techniques for the analysis of spatio-temporal data because of their powerfulness in extracting the underlying local patterns in the data. In this study, we propose a two-step local smoothing approach to explore spatial patterns and temporal trends of spatio-temporal data via combining the geographically weighted regression and the local polynomial smoothing procedure. The proposed method incorporates both spatial and temporal information into the calibration process and makes it easier to implement visualization of the results. A simulation experiment is conducted to assess the performance of the proposed method and the results show that the method works satisfactorily. A real-world spatio-temporal data set is analyzed to demonstrate the practical usefulness of the method.     

Does the presence of non-breeders enhance the fitness of breeders? An experimental analysis in the clown anemonefish<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Amphiprion percula</Emphasis>

The stability of animal societies depends on individuals decisions about whether to tolerate or evict others and about whether to stay or leave. These decisions, in turn, depend on individuals costs and benefits of living in the group. The clown anemonefish, Amphiprion percula, lives in groups composed of a breeding pair and zero to four non-breeders. To determine why breeders accept the presence of non-breeders in this species I investigated the effect of non-breeders on multiple components of the breeders fitness. Non-breeders did not assist breeders in any obvious way. Experimental removal of non-breeders had no significant effect on the survival, growth, or reproductive success of breeders. Experimental removal of one of the breeding pair showed that non-breeders had little effect on the time taken for a widowed breeder to recommence breeding. The results indicate that the presence of non-breeders neither enhances, nor reduces, the fitness of breeders in A. percula. I suggest that non-breeders might modulate their effect on the fitness of breeders, either by reducing the costs they inflict or by increasing the benefits they provide, such that it just pays breeders to tolerate, rather than to evict, them. This study illustrates that animal societies can be stable even when some individuals gain nothing from the association.Communicated by M. Abrahams     

The principal–agent model with multilateral externalities: An application to climate agreements

We consider contracting of a principal with an agent if multilateral externalities are present. The motivating example is that of an international climate agreement given private information about the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for emissions abatement. Due to multilateral externalities the principal uses her own emissions besides subsidies to incentivize the agent and to assure his participation. Optimal contracts equalize marginal abatement costs and, thus, can be implemented by a system of competitive permit trading. Moreover, optimal contracts can include a boundary part (i.e., the endogenous, type dependent participation constraint is binding), which is not a copy of the outside option of no contract. Compared to this outside option, a contract can increase emissions of the principal for types with a low WTP, and reduce her payoff for high types. Subsidies can be constant or even decreasing in emission reductions, and turn negative so that the agent reduces emissions and pays the principal.     

Is there a different response to winds during migration between soaring and flapping raptors? An example with the Montagu’s harrier and the lesser kestrel

During migrations, birds have to cope with varying meteorological conditions, which shape their migratory routes and affect their performance. Amongst these, wind is the main meteorological agent influencing behaviour of birds in their migration journeys. Here we analyze the effect of winds during migrations of adult individuals of two raptor species tracked with satellite telemetry, the Montagu’s harrier (Circus pygargus) and the lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni). While harriers use mostly soaring flight, kestrels principally use flapping flight and thus, wind can differently affect these birds. We found that both forward and perpendicular winds significantly affected the movements of the Montagu’s harrier, which were drifted from their intended direction but also took advantage of tailwinds. On the contrary, lesser kestrels moved more regardless of forward winds, despite they were highly drifted by crosswinds. Our results also support that the drifting effect of winds at the onset of the spring migration may explain the loop migration observed for both species, with birds compensating later the effect of crosswinds to arrive to their breeding areas. Results presented here illustrate how winds can differently affect migrating birds according to their flight modes.     

Modelling of the contribution of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) from litterfall of adjacent mangrove forest to Hooghly–Matla estuary,India

Hooghly–Matla estuarine ecosystem of India is very rich in natural resources and receives large amount of nutrients through litterfall from adjacent mangrove forest. Nitrogen as an important nutrient occurs in various forms and plays a crucial role in the regulation of productivity in this estuarine system. Modelling of nitrogen dynamics from mangrove litterfall and particularly the release of dissolved inorganic nitrogen in this estuarine system is important because of its role in augmenting growth of phytoplankton and other higher plants and all other biological components of grazing food chain.     

Determining the tourism potential of the Altındere Valley National Park (Trabzon/Turkey) with respect to its conservation value

This study was conducted to determine the tourism potential of Alt?ndere Valley National Park with respect to its conservation and utilization. With its natural values, Alt?ndere Valley National Park is one of the internationally prominent areas of potential for the recreational and touristic facilities it offers.

A mathematical method – criterion referenced method – was applied within this study, which was done to portray the touristic potential (resulting from the touristic and recreational utilization of the national park area and recreational zone) of the national park, which was visited by an average of 200,000 local and foreign guests.

According to this method, the conservation and utilization values that appear on two opposite axes were examined in accordance with the natural resource values of the area, and conservation and utilization values for each criterion were determined. Depending on the data, the general exploitable touristic potential of the area was specified.

A survey study was conducted on groups from various disciplines and local & foreign tourists visiting the area in specifying the touristic potential of the National Park. Eleven criteria were defined concerning the area and a criterion reference was prepared for each criterion. Then, conservation and utilization values for each criterion and exploitable touristic potential were mathematically indicated. The fact that the attained values were reduced to a percentage basis provides the opportunity to compare the researched area to similar fields that use the same method. Within the scope of the method, several suggestions were made using the information obtained in the evaluation of the data for every other source value.     

Review of total suspended particles (TSP) and PM<Subscript>2.5</Subscript> concentration variations in Asia during the years of 1998–2015

In Asian countries such as China, Malaysia, Pakistan, India, Taiwan, Korea, Japan and Hong Kong, ambient air total suspended particulates and PM_2.5 concentration data were collected and discussed during the years of 1998–2015 in this study. The aim of the present study was to (1) investigate and collect ambient air total suspended particulates (TSP) and PM_2.5 concentrations for Asian countries during the past two decades. (2) Discuss, analyze and compare those particulates (TSP and PM_2.5) annual concentration distribution trends among those Asian countries during the past two decades. (3) Test the mean concentration differences in TSP and PM_2.5 among the Asian countries during the past decades. The results indicated that the mean TSP concentration order was shown as China > Malaysia > Pakistan > India > Taiwan > Korea > Japan. In addition, the mean PM_2.5 concentration order was shown as Vietnam > India > China > Hong Kong > Mongolia > Korea > Taiwan > Japan and the average percentages of PM_2.5 concentrations for Taiwan, China, Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Mongolia and Other (India and Vietnam) were 8, 21, 6, 8, 14, 13 and 30%, respectively, during the past two decades. Moreover, t test results revealed that there were significant mean TSP and PM_2.5 concentration differences for either China or India to any of the countries such as Taiwan, Korea and Japan in Asia during the past two decades for this study. Noteworthy, China and India are both occupied more than 60% of the TSP and PM_2.5 particulates concentrations out of all the Asia countries. As for Taiwan, the average PM_2.5 concentration displayed increasing trend in the years of 1998–1999. However, it showed decreasing trend in the years of 2000–2010. As for Korea, the average PM_2.5 concentrations showed decreasing trend during the years of 2001–2013. Finally, the average PM_2.5 concentrations for Mongolia displayed increasing trend in the years of 2004–2013.     

An analysis of the developmental differences in Borneo’s Southeastern and Northwestern Coastal Zones

In this research, Landsat TM images were used to extract the land use information for Borneo’s coastal zones (0 to 35 km) during three time periods (1990, 2000, and 2010). Then, in combination with the DEM and shoreline types, the developmental differences under the influences of the geographical boundaries of the Borneo coastal zones were examined from such perspectives as the spatial distribution characteristics of the land development, sea-land gradient variation characteristics, and comparative analyses of the different regions. The results indicated that the geographic boundaries, as well as the different countries, had great influences on the development of the coastal zones. The regions with the most active development in Borneo’s coastal zones were mainly located in the estuary bay, onshore with land on both sides, and the near-shore alluvial plain with DEM?<?50 m. The northwestern coast zone showed relatively flat topography, and was close to an important international waterway. Therefore, the development in this area was found to be more intense than in the southeastern coastal zone, and which was characterized by a long developmental history. On one side of the geographical boundary, the development was also found to differ among the different countries. Malaysia was observed to be dominated by industrial plantations. Meanwhile, the industrial plantations, agriculture, and aquaculture in Indonesia were significantly increased, which was closely linked with the national economic policies. Furthermore, the development of Borneo’s coastal zones has led to vegetation degradation towards a constant inland development, plantation enlargements, agricultural development, and cleared and burnt areas, which have resulted in the land use transfer of 22,000 km² of forest land within the 0 to 35 km range.     

Bioaccumulation of potentially toxic elements within the soil–plant system in Central Balkan region: analysis of the forest ecosystem capacity to mediate toxic elements

Environmental Geochemistry and Health - The accumulation of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in terrestrial ecosystems has become a global concern, as PTEs may exert a wide range of negative...     

Trace analysis. Determination of the “breakthrough volume”; (B.T.V.) of atmospheric isoprene

This paper presents the first results of a study of B.T.V. on Tenax TA, at various flow rates of sampling, with standard isoprene gaseous mixtures whose concentration ranging from 0.7 ppbV to 4 ppbV was very similar to the concentrations found in natural atmosphere. The method used is based on the exploitation of chromatographic signals obtained from a preconcentration—thermodesorption —analysis cycle carried out on a standard isoprene mixture. The B.T.V. of isoprene on Tenax TA does not show a significant change at very low concentrations of isoprene.     

Erratum to “Modelling the responses of the Lagoon of Venice ecosystem to variations in physical forcings”: [Ecol. Model. 170 (2003) 265–289]

A Finite Element Ecological Model for the Lagoon of Venice (VELFEEM) has been used to test the responses of the Lagoon of Venice ecosystem to variations in physical conditions.The model is obtained by coupling a finite element hydrodynamic model, that computes the velocity fields of water, an energetic model to compute the water temperature fields, and an ecological model that simulates the dynamic of phytoplankton, zooplankton, nutrients (ammonia, nitrate and phosphate) organic detritus (organic nitrogen, organic phosphorous and CBOD) and dissolved oxygen.The transport model is a two-dimensional barotropic finite element model which allows for a better resolution of the lagoon morphology.The ecological model has been developed by starting from the ecological module EUTRO of WASP (Water Analysis Simulation System released by US EPA), and by adapting it to the peculiarity of the Lagoon of Venice.A reference condition has been identified by running a 1-year simulation under climatologic condition. Then, the sensitivity to physical forcing (tide and wind) and to the input of macronutrients has been investigated, by comparing model predictions of spatial and temporal evolution of major state variables and of an aggregate index of Water Quality Trophic Index (TRIX).     

Social cost–benefit analysis of Karnataka Watershed Development (KAWAD) project,Karnataka, India

This paper presents results of a social cost–benefit analysis (CBA) of afforestation and soil moisture treatment of common lands under an integrated watershed development programme in Karnataka State, India. The aim of the study was to find out if soil moisture conservation and afforestation measures were justified in terms of economic efficiency. The assessment was undertaken by calculating the economic internal rate of return (EIRR) for five village common lands in two watersheds, Uparhalla and Chinnahagari, in central Karnataka. Focused group discussions were organised, using a semi-structured questionnaire and various stakeholders, including project implementing agencies, self help groups and other community-based organisations. The attractiveness of the programme in both watersheds for landless and land owners was high in three out of five sampled villages, with an EIRR ranging from 19% to 91%, while two villages in Chinnahagari watershed had extremely low EIRR, reflecting poor management of soil moisture and afforestation interventions and lack of institutional cohesion to sustain investments made to develop common lands. Therefore, the CBA conducted in the KAWAD project, except for two villages, shows that the investment made to develop common lands should yield substantial economic returns in the long term under a business as usual scenario.     

Characterisation and classification of hoarfrost samples collected in Poland (2003–2005) by discriminant analysis

Discharges of nutrients, urea, dissolved organic matter and heavy metals by a sewage underwater pipeline are analysed in comparison to environmental conditions in a shallow coastal zone. Variable thermo-haline stratifications of the water column and currents in upper (2.62–34.97 cm s^?1) and deeper (0.83–10.91 cm s^?1) layers drive vertical diffusion and lateral transport of wastewaters. Loads of reactive phosphorus (0.13 tons d^?1) and ammonium (1.62 tons d^?1) by the pipeline are not negligible compared to the major river loads in the gulf. High concentrations of urea (≤11.51 μmol N dm^?3) were found in the area of wastewater release. Ammonium uptake (6.14–534 nmol N dm^?3 h^?1) strongly exceeded nitrate uptake (0.19–138 nmol N dm^?3 h^?1), indicating that discharges of ammonium by the pipeline are actively assimilated by plankton community even at low levels of light. Distribution of Zn (≤27.7 ppb), Cu (≤25.6 ppb), Cd (≤0.80 ppb) and Pb (≤13.5 ppb) in the water column and the measurement of their complex-forming capacity in seawater did not indicate a persistent perturbation of the pelagic environment due to heavy metals.     

Testing a stochastic version of the Beddington–DeAngelis functional response in foraging shore crabs

Current behaviour-based interference models assume that the predator population is infinitely large and that interference is weak. While the realism of the first assumption is questionable, the second assumption conflicts with the purpose of interference models. Here, we tested a recently developed stochastic version of the Beddington–DeAngelis functional response—which applies to a finite predator population without assuming weak interference—against experimental data of shore crabs (Carcinus maenas) foraging on mussels (Mytilus edulis). We present an approximate maximum likelihood procedure for parameter estimation when only one focal individual is observed, and introduce ‘correction factors’ that capture the average behaviour of the competing but unobserved individuals. We used the method to estimate shore crab handling time, interaction time, and searching rates for prey and competitor. Especially the searching rates were sensitive to variation in prey and competitor density. Incorporating constant parameter values in the model and comparing observed and predicted feeding rates revealed that the predictive power of the model is high. Our stochastic version of the Beddington–DeAngelis model better reflects reality than current interference models and is also amenable for modelling effects of interference on predator distributions.     

Multi-risk,multi-scale and multi-stakeholder – the contribution of a bow-tie analysis for risk management in the trilateral Wadden Sea Region

Risk management processes increasingly call for enhanced stakeholder participation, and aim to integrate different risk perceptions, concerns and interests. Frequently, this goal is driven by the increased complexity of risk management processes, as risk management processes continuously have to deal with multi-risk situations including impacts resulting from risks of natural hazards and risks caused by misguided social or economic development. Although stakeholder participation is required by different policies, major challenges still arise from the question of how to perform multi-stakeholder participation in practice. In order to find answers, we tested the so-called ‘bow-tie analysis’ as a potential tool to facilitate multi-stakeholder participation with a major effort on integrating stakeholders risk perceptions and interest in the risk management processes. The bow-tie analysis is a commonly used risk assessment technique (IEC 2009) to analyse cause-and-effect pathways of risks, but its application in multi-stakeholder processes in risk management of natural hazards, especially in a European context, is rather new. Using practical experiences from the trilateral Wadden Sea Region we demonstrate the bow-tie analysis’ contribution to coastal risk management processes in this coastal area by facilitating collaborative identification, comprehension and analysis of the management system. The use of a modified bow-tie analysis in collaboration with stakeholders from the Wadden Sea Region proved to be an appropriate framework for enhancing the understanding of risk management processes and fostered disclosure of different perceptions and concerns of multi-risk problematics. The bow-tie can be beneficial as a communication and co-construction tool in risk management processes in a multi-risk context.     

Are all signals the same? Ontogenetic change in the response to conspecific and heterospecific chemical alarm signals by juvenile green sunfish (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lepomis cyanellus</Emphasis>)

Within aquatic communities, individuals may gain survival benefits by responding to the chemical alarm signals of heterospecific prey guild members. Piscivorous individuals, however, should be selected to use such chemical signals as foraging cues. A variety of centrarchid species, such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), undergo an ontogenetic change in their response to the chemical alarm cues of heterospecific guild members, switching from antipredator to foraging responses. This ontogenetic shift should occur when potential foraging benefits outweigh any survival advantage gained from an antipredator response. To test this model, we exposed juvenile green sunfish (Lepomis cyanellus) to the skin extracts of conspecifics, a heterospecific prey guild member (finescale dace, Phoxinus neogeaus) or an allopatric heterospecific (green swordtails, Xiphophorus helleri). Juvenile sunfish exhibited a significant positive relationship between standard length and time spent moving and a significant negative relationship between length and time in a spine-erect posture, when exposed to dace skin extract, but not to either swordtail or conspecific skin extracts. Smaller individuals of less than 90 mm standard length (SL) decreased time moving and increased time with spines erect (indicating an antipredator response) while larger individuals (>90 mm SL) increased time moving and decreased time with spines erect (indicating a foraging response), when exposed to dace skin extract. Conversely, juvenile sunfish, regardless of size tested, always exhibited an antipredator response to conspecific skin extract. Sunfish exhibited no change in behaviour in response to swordtail skin extracts. These data further support our model of a threat sensitive trade-off in the response to chemical alarm signals by juvenile centrarchids.