基于属性识别理论的城市生态安全评价——以广州市为例

城市生态安全评价可以使管理者和公众及时了解城市发展中生态环境压力的严重态势,为城市可持续发展战略的制定和生态系统的管理提供依据和指导。文章构建了由活力、组织结构、恢复力、生态系统服务功能和人类健康状况5个要素构成的城市生态安全评价指标体系。在有序分割类和属性识别准则的基础上,建立了城市生态安全评价的属性识别模型。采用层次分析法（AHP）和熵权法赋予指标权重,充分利用了主观和客观评价方法的优势。根据此模型对广州市1991—2007年间的生态安全状况进行了实证分析。结果表明城市生态安全状况呈现出,从＂较不安全级＂上升到＂临界安全＂级。在5个评价要素中,除人群健康状况外,其他4个评价要素呈现出逐年改善的趋势。属性识别理论能对事物进行有效识别和比较分析,且原理直观、计算简便、评价结果准确,在评价、预测、决策等领域中具有广泛的适用性。     

Assessment of regional ecological security based on ecological footprint and influential factors analysis: a case study of Chongqing Municipality,China

In recent years, it has been important to objectively evaluate the degree of regional ecological security with regard to resource depletion and to analyse influential factors to assess sustainable development. This paper tries to assess ecological security in Chongqing while investigating the main influencing factors. Calculations of the consumption footprint, production footprint and ecological capacity for Chongqing from 1996 to 2007 based on an ecological footprint approach were carried out. An ecological security index was also calculated from these results and factors influencing security were analysed using factor analysis. Both the consumption and production footprints present an upward trend, contrary to the gradually decreasing trend of ecological capacity. In addition, the ecological security index shows that Chongqing has deteriorated from a level of less risk to that of risk. Factor analysis suggests that the deterioration of ecological security could primarily be ascribed to socio-economic factors and industrialisation. With socio-economic development and industrialisation, appropriate measures must be taken to improve the ecosystem in Chongqing so as to achieve sustainable development. The limitations of the methodology are also discussed and areas that require further research are presented.     

Comprehensive urban planning and management at multiple scales based on ecological principles: a case study in Beijing,China

SUMMARY

Rapid urbanisation and serious environmental problems have led people worldwide to realise the significance of urban planning and management towards a sustainable environment. Beijing was used as a case study to develop a framework and strategies for sustainable development using ecological principles. At the regional level, Beijing-Tianjin agglomeration and Hebei Province are considered together. At the Beijing administrative level, some important measures are put forward for revision of the Beijing Urban Master Plan. At the Beijing plain level, the future spatial structure of Beijing city and the relationship between settlements, green space and transportation are considered, and three basic development patterns are proposed. At the inner district level, the ecological corridor system is suggested, based on ecosystem services. At the selected area level, a comprehensive strategy and key measures for conservation and renewal of old Beijing city core are provided. Once strategies for Beijing urban development are implemented step-by-step, a vision for future development can be achieved. This paper provides considerations for improvement of urban planning and management in China and other countries.     

区域生态安全:概念及评价理论基础

借鉴国内外的研究成果,提出区域生态安全的概念是指在一定时空范围内,在自然及人类活动的干扰下,区域内生态环境条件以及所面临的生态环境问题不对人类生存和持续发展构成威胁,并且自然-经济-社会复合生态系统的脆弱性能够不断得到改善的状态。指出生态安全评价是一个多学科交叉的研究领域,其评价理论基础涉及可持续发展理论、生态系统服务功能理论、生态承载力理论、时空论和系统工程论等;生态安全是可持续发展的基础,两者具有内涵和目标的一致性;区域生态安全研究的目的就是平衡人类的自然资源利用与生存环境质量需求的矛盾,保证生态系统在持续安全的状态下提供服务;应用生态承载力的研究成果有助于补充和完善生态安全评价。区域生态安全评价强调研究对象的时空性和研究方法的系统性。多学科整合能更好地指导区域生态安全评价。     

Contribution of national bioassessment approaches for assessing ecological water security: an AUSRIVAS case study

River managers in Australia are managing in the face of extremes to provide security of water supply for people, production and the environment. Balancing the water requirements of people, environments and economies requires that water security is viewed holistically, not just in terms of the water available for human consumption. Common definitions of water security focus on the needs of both humans and ecosystems for purposes such as drinking, agriculture and industrial use, and to maintain ecological values. Information about achieving water security for the environment or ecological purposes can be a challenge to interpret because the watering requirements of key ecological processes or assets are not well understood, and the links between ecological and human values are often not obvious to water users. Yet the concepts surrounding river health are inherently linked to holistic concepts of water security. The measurement of aquatic biota provides a valuable tool for managers to understand progress toward achieving ecological water security objectives. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the reference condition approach to river health assessment, using the development of the Australian River Assessment System (AUSRIVAS) as a case study. We make the link between the biological assessment of river health and assessment of ecological water security, and suggest that such an approach provides a way of reporting that is relevant to the contribution made by ecosystems to water security. The reference condition approach, which is the condition representative of minimally disturbed sites organized by selected physical, chemical, and biological characteristics, is most important for assessing ecological water security objectives.     

干旱区生态安全问题及其评价原理——以新疆为例

普遍的生态敏感性和整体的生态退化趋势,使干旱区成为社会适应和经济适度极端脆弱区,其生态安全问题的典型性和突出性,为完善区域生态安全评价理论体系提供了理想靶区。根据生态安全评价的一般原理和目标,通过剖析新疆绿洲区生态安全问题的驱动、压力和响应机理,主要利用地带性共扼和非地带性耦合分析方法,从哲学观和生态系统、景观生态、土地类型及其稳定性格局层面,初步构建了干旱区生态安全评价的基本原理,得出确保有效的生态需水和生态水位,协调水生态及水安全功能,是干旱区生态安全评价的基础;基于生态承载和再生恢复禀赋的合理、适度利用优势资源,是绿洲开发的生态安全保障;维护天然绿洲和荒漠的“生态标本”价值,引导土地利用的生态化转向,是绿洲生态安全评价的客观依据;通过系统的生态规划和景观设计,保持异质景观的竞争性统一和生态圈层结构的动态稳定性,是干旱区生态安全评价的核心内容。     

Heavy Metal Contamination and Distribution in the Urban Environment of Guangzhou, SE China

Ever-increasing heavy metal accumulation in the urban environment of Guangzhou, the largest light industrial production base and one of the most rapidly developing cities in China, poses a serious threat to environment as well as to human health in the region. As a sink or source, urban deposits are good indicators of the level and extent of heavy metal accumulation in the surface environment. The aim of this preliminary study was to examine the distribution of heavy metal contamination in the urban environment of Guangzhou. It was based on a systematic sampling of road dusts and corresponding gully sediments along major roads running mainly through commercial and residential to industrial districts of the city. In addition to road dusts and gully sediments, ceiling dusts from the Pearl River Tunnel were also collected to characterize anthropogenic emissions dominated by traffic-related activities. In general, the level of Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn contaminations were more severe on the industrialized side of Guangzhou than on the western side where heavy traffic and industrial activities were limited. The primary determinants of the level of heavy metal contamination and the distribution of this contamination in the urban environment of Guangzhou were the site-specific conditions of its urban setting, particularly the types of industries, the nature of the traffic flow, sample residence times and variations in grain size of the particulate contaminants. This study highlights the complexity of the urban system and indicates that in just such a system individual urban components should be interlinked to assess the long-term environmental and health effects of heavy metal contamination. Among the heavy metals tested – Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn – the level of Zn contamination was the most severe and widespread, and thus requires immediate attention.     

基于景观格局的辽河三角洲湿地生态安全分析

以1990年和2005年遥感影像为基本信息源,在GIS技术支持下,在对辽河三角洲湿地景观格局分析的基础上,采用破碎度、分离度、优势度等景观格局指数和景观类型脆弱度为评价指标研究辽河三角洲湿地景观生态安全。20世纪90年代以来大规模的资源开发,加剧了辽河三角洲湿地景观的破碎化程度,使景观优势度增高,多样性下降。从1990-2005年,研究区主要湿地景观类型水稻田、苇田、滩涂的干扰程度有所增加,生态安全度均有所下降,表明人类对自然湿地生态系统的干扰越来越明显。总体来说,15年来研究区整体景观生态安全度呈现下降趋势。以往湿地生态安全的研究主要集中在环境脆弱性和保护策略方面,研究层次着重在生态系统层面,而从景观格局角度对湿地景观生态安全的研究涉及较少,文章涉及的是景观生态学可持续发展研究的一个新领域,所提出的内容实质上是景观生态安全定量表征的方法探讨。应用景观生态学方法研究生态安全,揭示景观结构与功能关系并进一步分析区域生态环境的变化趋势及其内在因素,不但为辽河三角洲湿地及其生物多样性的保护和资源开发提供了科学依据,而且丰富和发展了我国生态安全研究的理论与方法。     

An early warning method of landscape ecological security in rapid urbanizing coastal areas and its application in Xiamen, China

Based on the Pressure-State-Response (P-S-R) approach, an index system for landscape ecological security (LES) was suggested using three dimensions, six factors, and three weights. The indicators in the system were divided into two groups: spatial interpolation (acquired by the remote sensing data) and non-spatial interpolation (acquired by consultation with experts). According to data of 2003 and 2006, coupled with current tendencies, the early warning method was classified into four categories: security and degradation, sub-security and slow degradation, sub-security and rapid degradation, and insecurity. Our research with early warning method finds three interesting phenomena: (1) mean value of LES in 2003 was 0.586, indicating medium security; while in 2006 it was 0.650, an upper medium security. The LES level within each districts of Xiamen in 2006 was better than the level in 2003. In terms of LES, the comprehensive condition within each district of Xiamen in 2006 was enhanced compared with 2003. Overall, there was improvement in 80.5% of areas from 2003 to 2006, showing promising signs of positive development. (2) The LES of Xiang’an District and Jimei District were in stages of high early warning given that the percentage of land in these districts that showed symptoms of insecurity and degradation was 41.03 and 34.89%, respectively. (3) On the whole, the areas that showed notable signs of insecurity and rapid landscape, and which can already be identified as early warning areas requiring immediate attention, correspond closely with the distribution of coastal industrial parks in these regions. In conclusion, the consequences of rapid industrialization and urbanization are far reaching and affect local and regional ecological security.     

基于盲数的水体沉积物潜在生态风险评价方法

基于生态风险评价系统中多种不确定性共存或交叉存在的特性,将盲数理论应用于水体沉积物潜在生态风险的评价研究。在将Hakanson潜在生态风险指数模型参数定义为盲参数的基础上,建立了沉积物潜在生态风险评价的盲数模型,并提出了污染程度和潜在生态风险等级识别盲数可靠性计算模型。根据上述盲数模型,不仅可以得到沉积物污染程度和潜在生态风险的可能取值区间,也可以得到各区间相应的可信度水平,进而定量计算待评价对象隶属于各评价等级的主观可能性大小。作为案例,将上述模型应用于巢湖十五里河河口沉积物中重金属潜在生态风险评价的研究。在得到沉积物中单个重金属污染物(Hg,Cd,Pb,Cu,Cr)隶属于污染程度各等级和潜在生态风险各等级可信度水平的基础上,得出十五里河河口处于较高生态风险水平的结论,相应的可信度为0.626。实例研究表明,以盲数理论评价沉积物的潜在生态风险,理论上可行,评价结论可信。     

基于ARIMA模型的区域水生态足迹时间序列分析

20世纪末以来,生态足迹理论应用研究成为生态经济学的一个热点,而生态足迹指标的可预测性一直是研究中争论的一个焦点。通过分析1949—1998年广州市的水生态足迹变化,并对计算结果进行ARIMA模型时间序列预测分析,以揭示广州水资源利用和水产品消耗的发展变化规律,并根据其发展变化规律预测广州市未来水生态足迹的变动。结果表明,ARIMA(2,2,2)模型能较好的拟合广州市1949—1993年期间水生态足迹变化,经1994—1998年实际计算结果验证所建模型,误差在5%左右;应用ARIMA(2,2,2)预测广州市1999—2008年的人均水生态足迹,结果分别为:0.5935,0.656 2,0.714 7,0.779 0,0.840 2,0.901 55,0.964 11,1.025 57,1.087 44,1.149 43 hm2,预测结果表明广州市1999—2008年期间的人均水生态足迹仍呈较快上升趋势,居民对于水产品的需求提高以及城市发展、人口增加等社会经济因素是导致这种趋势产生的主要原因。     

生态足迹与生态承载力动态变化研究——以辽宁省为例

利用生态足迹理论和计算方法、生态承载力分析方法分析了辽宁省1998--2007年十年期间的人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力变化过程。结果表明：辽宁省人均生态足迹由1998年的2．9187上升到2007年的4．3578,人均生态承载力由1998年的0．6676下降到2007年的0．6520,生态赤字逐年增加,生态系统处于人类过度开发利用状态之中;万元GDP生态足迹始终处于下降的趋势,表明辽宁省对区域生物生产面积利用效率逐年提高,但与全国平均水平相比还有提高的空间;从供需结构分析,辽宁省土地供给以耕地为主,但是从消费结构来看以化石燃料土地为主。     

Urban ecosystem health assessment based on emergy and set pair analysis—A comparative study of typical Chinese cities

Regarding various energy and materials flowing in the urban ecosystem and the merit of emergy as an embodied energetic equivalent for integrated ecological economic evaluation, an evaluation framework of emergy-based urban ecosystem health indicators (UEHI_em) was established in view of five aspects including vigor, structure, resilience, ecosystem service function maintenance and environmental impact to depict the urban ecosystem health states. Further, set pair analysis (SPA) was employed to assess the urban ecosystem health level based on the UEHI_em, by which the approximate degree of real index set to the optimal one was defined and evaluated to describe the relative health state of the concerned urban ecosystems. Choosing twenty typical Chinese cities in 2005 as cases, we evaluated and compared their urban ecosystem health levels based on UEHI_em and SPA. The results showed that health levels of Xiamen, Qingdao, Shenzhen and Shanghai are pretty well, while those of Wuhan, Harbin, Yinchuan, Beijing and Urumchi are relatively weak. Moreover, the relative health levels were analyzed by SPA to discern the influences of the mentioned five aspects on the UEHI_em. It is concluded that emergy synthesis combined with SPA can serve as an effective relative-measure to compare different ecosystem health levels of urban ecosystems.     

城市生态环境演变趋势的集对分析预测研究——以武汉市为例

自然生态环境是城市社会经济健康发展的重要物质基础,生态足迹作为生态环境承载状态测度的指标,受到社会、经济、人口等多种因素的影响,表现出时空动态性和不确定性等特征,集对分析(SPA)为不确定性问题的建模提出一条新的思路。在对1988—2004年武汉市生态足迹及其社会经济影响因子时间序列分析的基础上,通过构建的集对分析动态模型,对武汉市2005—2020年总生态足迹发展趋势进行了预测。研究结果表明,2005—2020年总生态足迹将由1810.925万hm2增长到2873.857万hm2,呈现出低于GDP和生态效率增长速率的趋势,但生态环境将进一步恶化,对此就武汉市生态系统的发展提出了对策与建议。最后,指出SPA动态模型为城市生态系统预测研究提供了一种可行的解决方案。     

Integrated ecological assessment as the basis for management of a coastal urban protected area: A case study of Xiamen,China

In the process of rapid urbanisation in China, environmental problems have increased, from sewage discharge to climate change. Marine protected areas (MPAs) are widely advocated as a means to comprehensively manage human activities and resources in ocean and coastal areas. However, MPAs only safeguard populations or assemblages within their boundaries and fail to offer any protection from many major threats to marine environments. An increase in environmental threats implies an increase in environmental management and assessment. We propose a methodological framework for integrated ecological assessment using the Xiamen marine protected area as a case study. The integrated ecological assessment framework can be generalised from the dimensions of environment, economy, society and institution. Surveys were undertaken to assess the state of the Xiamen coastal environment, the resources of the reserve, and issues associated with human activities. Stakeholders were interviewed about their attitudes towards issues regarding the management of the reserve. The constraints of the reserve management were identified. The methodological framework is presented as a tool to help identify relative ecological security in order to prioritise actions and assess the ecological implications of management and policy decisions.     

Evaluating the environmental impacts of an urban wetland park based on emergy accounting and life cycle assessment: A case study in Beijing

In this paper, emergy accounting (EA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) methods are employed to investigate a typical urban wetland park, the Green Lake Urban Wetland Park (GLUWP) of Beijing, in terms of its environmental and capital inputs, ecosystem services and organic matter yields, environmental support, and sustainability. The LCA method is also used to obtain a quantitative estimation of the environmental impact of discharges during the entire life cycle of the GLUWP. Various emergy-based indices, such as emergy yield ratio (EYR), environmental load ratio (ELR), emergy sustainability index (ESI), net economic benefit (Np), and environmental impacts of process-based LCA, including global warming potential (GWP), eutrophication (EU), nonrenewable resource depletion (RU), energy consumption (EN), acidification potential (AP), photochemical oxidant creation potential (POCP), particulate matter (PM) and wastes (W), are calculated. The results show that the GLUWP has higher proportions of renewable resource input, less pressure on the environment, more environmental support and better ecological and economic benefits, which can be considered as an environment-friendly and long-term sustainable ecological practice, compared with another constructed wetland in Beijing. Meanwhile, the dominant environmental impact is induced by POCP with the construction phase contributing the most on the entire life cycle. It is expected that increasing green area, extensively using environment-friendly materials, optimizing construction techniques and reducing power consumption can promote the sustainability of the GLUWP.     

基于净初级生产力的能源足迹模型及其与传统模型的比较分析

将净初级生产力和土地利用变化2个新指标纳入传统能源足迹模型,构建了基于净初级生产力的能源足迹模型。应用传统模型和改进后的模型分别计算了1999—2008年的吉林省能源足迹,并对2组结果进行了比较分析。研究结果表明：10年间,采用传统模型计算的吉林省人均能源足迹由0.7908hm2增至1.6770hm2,采用净初级生产力模型计算的人均能源足迹由0.2490hm2增至0.5237hm2。2种模型的计算结果在整体变化趋势和构成顺序上较为一致,但在历年变化速率和具体构成份额上存在一定差别。净初级生产力模型扩展了传统模型的研究范围,并在碳吸收参数选取等方面进行了较大改进,所得结果反映了区域综合碳吸收能力下的能源消费生态环境影响,更符合区域自然和社会实际状况,一定程度上是对传统模型的完善。     

Urban planning and sustainable development under transitional economy: a case study of Guangzhou

There are always conflicts between the need for conservation and economic growth in the developing countries. Planning plays a primary role in balancing these conflicts. This is particularly obvious in Chinese cities since China adopted its open door policy in 1978. Foreign investment has been a major driving force for rapid growth of the Chinese economy. Planners in China have been facing the dilemma of protecting the natural environment on the one hand while, on the other hand, supporting the overall national goal of attracting foreign investment to maintain continuous economic growth. The planning system in China, which has been largely based on a planned economy, soon found itself handicapped in safeguarding the environment from rapid industrialization and urbanization fostered by market forces. This paper takes Guangzhou as an example to study challenges to the planning system in Chinese cities in the past two decades of rapid economic growth and urbanization. By means of a case study on an industrial development within a protected orchard area in Guangzhou, this study illustrates the conflict between the need for rural conservation and the pressure for economic development in the Chinese cities. In particular, it analyzes the pressures on the present urban planning system in China in terms of the following categories: the emergence of private investors in urban development; the goal of pursuing a high economic growth rate; the implications of a transitional economy for urban planning; and the weakness of the present urban planning system. It concludes that the role of urban planning in China should change from simply providing guidelines on board land-use strategy, to a combination of a strategic plan with specific development control laws at the operational level. Finally, some recommendations are suggested as to how to improve the planning system in China.     

基于改进模型的1992—2010年中国省域生态足迹核算

生态足迹可以从生物生产角度定量评估区域社会经济发展的可持续程度。本文运用改进的生态足迹模型对我国各省级行政区1992—2010年的生态足迹进行核算及聚类和相关性分析,以衡量各区域发展的差异及相似程度和分析各省域生态足迹变化的主导因素,并根据核算结果建立了各省区市的生态足迹预测模型,进一步明确各省级行政区的生态足迹变化趋势,以期为区域社会经济发展决策提供参考和借鉴。研究结果显示：近20年来,我国各省域社会经济发展对自然资源的依赖程度及对环境的总体影响存在较大差异。生态足迹的变化可以分为3种类型,即逐渐下降型、明显上升型和基本平稳型。北京和上海的生态足迹变化属于逐渐下降型,分别受对化石燃料用地和耕地需求的减少所主导,其中北京市生态足迹与化石燃料用地的相关系数为0.96,上海市生态足迹与耕地的相关系数为0.703,这2个城市在过去20年中的社会经济发展对自然资源的依赖程度逐渐降低;以内蒙古、山西为代表的化石燃料资源较为丰富的省域生态足迹呈明显上升趋势,这些省域生态足迹的增长受区域化石燃料生产的影响较大,个别省级行政单位生态足迹与化石燃料的相关系数为1;东北三省、东南沿海地区及西部自然资源相对匮乏省区的生态足迹属于基本平稳型。     

中部6省生态足迹的测算与比较分析

生态足迹方法是区域可持续发展研究的一种重要方法,在中部6省大区域框架下,运用生态足迹模型对中部6省1989—2011年的生态足迹进行了测算和对比研究。研究结果表明:中部6省1989—2011年的生态承载力较为平稳,其中江西、河南、湖北和湖南4省的生态承载力略有上升,而山西、安徽两省的生态承载力有下降趋势。中部6省的社会经济活动对生态系统的消耗远大于生态系统本身的承载能力,并且这种差距正在不断增大,导致生态赤字不断增大。考察期间,山西省生态赤字的绝对值最小,平均生态赤字为0.49 hm2 cap-1,湖北省生态赤字最大,平均值为1.15 hm2 cap-1,其次为河南和湖南,生态赤字增长最快的是山西省和河南省,增长倍数分别达到了7.38和4.27倍。中部6省6种生态生产性土地的生态足迹均呈现出上升趋势,平均来看,6类生态生产性土地在中部6省总的生态足迹中所占比重由高到低依次为耕地、化石能源地、草地、建筑用地、水域、林地。耕地生态足迹是生态足迹中最重要的组成部分,在总的生态足迹中所占比重最大,中部6省耕地的生态足迹时间序列数据比较平稳,在考察时间内从1989年的0.4241上涨到2011年的0.5851,上升趋势较平稳,但由于耕地生态足迹所占比重大,尽管增长速度缓慢,但对中部6省生态足迹总的影响较大。建筑用地和林地生态足迹虽然增长幅度较大,但由于基数小,因此建筑生态足迹和林地生态足迹对中部6省生态足迹总的影响较小。草地、水域和化石能源用地生态足迹基数大,增长幅度也大,加上耕地生态足迹,共同决定了中部6省人均生态足迹的逐年上升趋势。