Modelling the spatial distribution of red grouper (Epinephelus morio) at Campeche Bank, México, with respect substrate

The red grouper (Epinephelus morio) has historically been one of the most important fisheries of the Campeche Bank area in the Gulf of México, where two fleets from México and one from Cuba participate. Current stocks have been estimated to be a third or less as abundant as in the 1970s; hence, the fishery has been declared to be over-exploited. The federal government of México has expressed the need to investigate the potential use of protected areas as a management tool for recovery of this species. Based on artificial neural network (ANN) modelling, we analysed the spatial distribution of red grouper with respect substrate, considering the demographic structure of the stock. We found a significant relationship between the type of substrate and the three stages of development (juveniles, pre-adults and adults). Juveniles are distributed in shallow waters close to the coast on coral substrates; pre-adults are also associated with coral substrates, but at an intermediate depth; adults are found in deeper waters on sandy substrates. We also identified seasonal reproductive aggregation patterns, always in relation to substrate types. Reproductive aggregation during the winter and early spring in the north-eastern continental shelf and the almost permanent (exception in autumn) concentration of juveniles in coastal waters around the central and eastern coast of Yucatan are of particular importance for management. These patterns represent seasons and areas of high fish vulnerability, which is the basic criterion for further analysis of protected areas.     

Modeling the population dynamics of cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) over a wide area in northern China

The cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is one of the most serious crop pests in northern China, calling for accurate prediction of pest outbreaks and strategies for pest control. A computer model is developed to simulate the population dynamics of H. armigera over a wide area in northern China. The area considered covers 12 provinces where serious outbreaks of H. armigera have been observed. In this model, pest development is driven by local ambient temperature, and adults migrate long distances between regions and select preferred hosts for oviposition within a region. Six types of host including cotton, wheat, corn, peanut, soybean and a single category composed of all other minor hosts are considered in this model. Survival rates of eggs and larvae are based on life-table data, and simulated as a function of host type, host phenology and temperature. The incidence of diapause depends on temperature and photoperiod experienced during the larval stage. Survival rate of non-diapause pupae is a nonlinear function of rainfall, and overwinter survival rate is a nonlinear function of temperature. Insecticide is applied when population density exceeds the economic threshold on a host crop within a region. Comparisons of model output with light-trap data indicate that our model reflects the pest population dynamics over a wide area, and could potentially be used for testing novel pest control strategies in northern China.     

Simulating the temporal pattern of waste production in farmed gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata), European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) and Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus)

Most fish farming waste output models provide gross waste rates as a function of stocked or produced biomass for a year or total culture cycle, but without contemplating the temporality of the discharges. This work aims to ascertain the temporal pattern of waste loads by coupling available growth and waste production models and developing simulation under real production rearing conditions, considering the overlapping of batches and management of stocks for three widely cultured species in the Mediterranean Sea: gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata), European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) and Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus). For a similar annual biomass production, the simulations showed that waste output and temporal dumping patterns differ between the three species as a result of the disparities in growth velocity, nutrient digestibility, maintenance metabolic budget and husbandry. The simulations allowed the temporal patterns including the periods of maximum discharge and the dissolved and particulate nitrogen and phosphorus content in the wastes released to be determined, both of which were seen to be species-specific.     

Identifying habitat patches and potential ecological corridors for remnant Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus japonicus) populations in Japan

The Japanese National Biodiversity Strategy 2010 calls for the creation of ecological networks as a biodiversity conservation policy. However, there is an obvious lack of information on the spatial distribution of many species and a lack of scientific methods for examining habitat requirements to establish the need for constructing these networks for target species. This study presents a quantitative method for assessing the need for ecological networks through modeling the potential geographic distributions of species based on a case study of local populations of Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus japonicus) in Fuji and Tanzawa, Japan. A total of 1541 point records of occurrences of Asiatic black bears and 11 potential predictors were analyzed in a GIS environment. After a predictive distributional map was obtained using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm, a gap analysis was carried out and population size was estimated. Approximately 24% of the bear's predicted habitat area fell within a wildlife protection area, 2% within a nature reserve, and 37% within natural parks. Conservation forest comprised 54% of the total area of predicted habitat; of this, national forest comprised 2%, and private and communal forest comprised 37%. The total estimated Asiatic black bear population in this region was 242, with 179 individuals in the Fuji local population, 26 in the Tanzawa local population, and 37 in the corridor patch between the two local populations. Our study also found a potential corridor connecting the Fuji and Tanzawa local populations, as well as potential habitat corridors in the Fuji region containing subpopulations on Mt. Fuji (119 individuals) and Mt. Kenashi (53 individuals). An additional subpopulation on Mt. Ashitaka (7 individuals) is isolated and not fully protected by a zoning plan. Mt. Furo's subpopulation is considered to be almost extinct, although black bears were observed here until 2002 based on the report by Mochizuki et al. (2005). The total black bear population of the Fuji-Tanzawa region is considered to be “endangered”; thus, an adequate population size might be difficult to maintain even if this region were to be internally connected by means of an ecological network.     

Waterfowls habitat modeling: Simulation of nest site selection for the migratory Little Tern (Sterna albifrons) in the Nakdong estuary

This paper aims to find patterns in nest site selection by Little Terns Sterna albifrons, in the Nakdong estuary in South Korea. This estuary is important waterfowl stopover and breeding habitat, located in the middle of the East Asia-Australasian Flyway. The Little Tern is a common species easily observed near the seashore but their number is gradually declining around the world. We investigated their nests and eggs on a barrier islet in the Nakdong estuary during the breeding season (May to June, 2007), and a pattern for the nest site selection was identified using genetic programming (GP). The GP generated a predictive rule-set model for the number of Little Tern nests (training: R² = 0.48 and test: 0.46). The physical features of average elevation, variation of elevation, plant coverage, and average plant height were estimated to determine the influence on nest numbers for Little Tern. A series of sensitivity analyses stressed that mean elevation and vegetation played an important role in nest distribution for Little Tern. The influence of these two variables could be maximized when elevation changed moderately within the sampled quadrats. The study results are regarded as a good example of applying GP to vertebrate distribution patterning and prediction with several important advantages compared to conventional modeling techniques, and can help establish a management or restoration strategy for the species.     

Identifying key life-traits for the dynamics and gene flow in a weedy crop relative: Sensitivity analysis of the GeneSys simulation model for weed beet (Beta vulgaris ssp. vulgaris)

The benefits of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) sugar beet (Beta vulgaris) varieties stem from their presumed ability to improve weed control and reduce its cost, particularly targeting weed beet, a harmful annual weedy form of the genus Beta (i.e. B. vulgaris ssp. vulgaris) frequent in sugar beet fields. As weed beet is totally interfertile with sugar beet, it is thus likely to inherit the herbicide-tolerance transgene through pollen-mediated gene flow. Hence, the foreseeable advent of HT weed beet populations is a serious threat to the sustainability of GM sugar beet cropping systems. For studying and quantifying the long-term effects of cropping system components (crop succession and cultivation techniques) on weed beet population dynamics and gene flow, we developed a biophysical process-based model called GeneSys-Beet in a previous study. In the present paper, the model was employed to identify and rank the weed life-traits as function of their effect on weed beet densities and genotypes, using a global sensitivity analysis to model parameters. Monte Carlo simulations with simultaneous randomization of all life-trait parameters were carried out in three cropping systems contrasting for their risk for infestation by HT weed beets. Simulated weed plants and bolters (i.e. beet plants with flowering and seed-producing stems) were then analysed with regression models as a function of model parameters to rank processes and life-traits and quantify their effects. Key parameters were those determining the timing and success of growth, development, seed maturation and the physiological end of seed production. Timing parameters were usually more important than success parameters, showing for instance that optimal timing of weed management operations is more important than its exact efficacy. The ranking of life-traits though depended on the cropping system and, to a lesser extent, on the target variable (i.e. GM weeds vs. total weed population). For instance, post-emergence parameters were crucial in rotations with frequent sugar beet crops whereas pre-emergence parameters were most important when sugar beet was rare. In the rotations with frequent sugar beet and insufficient weed control, interactions between traits were small, indicating diverse populations with contrasted traits could prosper. Conversely, when sugar beet was rare and weed control optimal, traits had little impact individually, indicating that a small number of optimal combinations of traits would be successful. Based on the analysis of sugar beet parameters and genetic traits, advice for the future selection of sugar beet varieties was also given. In climatic conditions similar to those used here, the priority should be given to limiting the presence of hybrid seeds in seed lots rather than decreasing varietal sensitivity to vernalization.     

Modelling the spatial population dynamics of the green oak leaf roller (Tortrix viridana) using density dependent competitive interactions: Effects of herbivore mortality and varying host-plant quality

Cyclic population dynamics of forest insects with periods of more than two generations have been discussed in relation to a variety of extrinsic and intrinsic forces. In the present study, we employed the selection pressure of density dependent competitive interactions according to Witting's equations (Witting, 2000) as driver for a discrete spatiotemporal model of the green oak leaf roller (Tortrix viridana). The model was successfully parameterised to rebuild the cyclic population dynamics of an empirical data set of a 30-year leaf roller monitoring in Russia. Our analysis focussed on the role of herbivore mortality and host plant food quality, which have a significant effect on T. viridana population dynamics. An additional egg or larvae mortality lowers population density and can lead to selection pressures that favour individuals with higher growth rate. This increased population growth rate can not only compensate the additional mortality, but also can lead to higher average moth abundances in subsequent generations. Furthermore, we analysed the effect of inter- and intraspecific variation in host plant quality on herbivore population dynamics and the spatial distribution of abundance and defoliation patterns. We found significant effects of the qualitative composition of a trees neighbourhood on the herbivore population of the respective tree. Also, the patchy damage patterns observable in reality have been reproduced by the present model. The applicability of the model approach and the putative genetic processes underlying Witting's model are discussed.     

Effect of streambed bacteria release on E. coli concentrations: Monitoring and modeling with the modified SWAT

Streambed sediment has been attracting attention as a reservoir for bacteria, including pathogenic strains. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been augmented with a bacteria transport subroutine in SWAT2005 in which bacteria die-off is the only in-stream process. The purpose of this study was to develop the partial model of sediment-associated bacteria transport in stream and to evaluate the potential significance of streambed Escherichia coli (E. coli) release and deposition within the SWAT microbial water quality simulations. Streambed E. coli release and deposition were simulated based on the sediment resuspension and deposition modules in SWAT. The modified SWAT was applied to the Little Cove Creek watershed, Pennsylvania, which has forestry and dairy pasture landuses. Temporal changes in sediment E. coli concentrations were derived from monitoring data rather than from a streambed bacteria population model. Sensitivity analyses and calibrations were separately conducted for both hydrologic and bacteria parameters. Hydrologic calibration characterized soils in the watershed as pervious and thus the surface runoff was only moderately contributing to the streamflow. However, the surface runoff carried large numbers of E. coli to the stream, and sediment resuspension contributed to the persistent concentration of E. coli in stream water. Although the uncertainty of E. coli concentrations in streambed sediments and from wildlife probably affected the performance of the modified SWAT model, this study qualitatively confirmed the significance of modeling E. coli release from streambed and deposition for the SWAT microbial water quality simulations. Further developments should include modeling dynamics of bacteria populations within streambeds.     

Assessing environmental factors in red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) growth in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA: From conceptual model, envirogram, to simulation model

This study provides a method for assessing a multiplicity of environmental factors in red spruce growth in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP) of Southeastern USA. Direct and indirect factors in the annual growth increment are first organized into a schematic input-output envirogram (ARIRS), and this information is then used to construct a simulation model (ARIM). The envirogram represents a structured conceptualization of most environmental factors involved in growth, as developed from relevant literature. This interdisciplinary synthesis distinguishes direct vs. indirect factors in growth and takes account of the systems ecology concept that indirect factors may be as important as or more important than direct ones in regulating growth. The ARIRS envirogram summarizes hierarchically organized, within- and cross-scale, local-to-global interactions, and its construction makes it obvious that growth is influenced by many cross-scale spatiotemporal interactions. More research on genecology is still needed to clarify the role of phenotypic plasticity and adaptive capacity in nutrient cycling, global change, and human disturbance.     

Simulating population variation and movement within fragmented landscapes: An application to the gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus)

As the human activity footprint grows, land-use decisions play an increasing role in determining the future of plant and animal species. Studies have shown that urban and agricultural development cannot only harm species populations directly through habitat destruction, but also by destroying the corridors that connect habitat patches and populations within a metapopulation. Without these pathways, populations can encounter inbreeding depression and degeneration, which can increase death rates and lower rates of reproduction. This article describes the development and application of the FRAGGLE model, a spatial system dynamics model designed to calculate connectivity indices among populations. FRAGGLE can help planners and managers identify the relative contribution of populations associated with habitat patches to future populations in those patches, taking into account the importance of interstitial land to migration success. The model is applied to the gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus), a threatened species whose southeastern U.S. distribution has diminished significantly within its native range due to agricultural and urban development over the last several decades. This model is parameterized with life history and movement traits of the gopher tortoise in order to simulate population demographics and spatial distribution within an area in west-central Georgia that supports a significant tortoise population. The implications of this simulation modeling effort are demonstrated using simple landscape representations and a hypothetical on land-use management scenario. Our findings show that development resulting in even limited habitat losses (10%) may lead to significant increases in fragmentation as measured by a loss in the rate of dispersions (31%) among area subpopulations.     

Agent-based simulation of effects of stress on forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hübner) population dynamics

The forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hübner) (FTC) has an outbreak cycle of approximately 10 years; however, smaller spatial scale analyses show some regions have longer or more frequent periods of high defoliation. This may be a result of local forest fragmentation, pollution or other sources of stress that may affect FTC directly or indirectly through stress on their hosts or parasitoids. Population dynamics of FTC were examined to investigate how stress may alter the severity and frequency of defoliation. We developed a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate the host-parasitoid dynamics of FTC. Theoretical and empirically derived parameters were established using past literature and over 50 years of population data of FTC from Ontario, Canada. We find that increasing FTC fecundity, FTC dispersal or parasitoid mortality resulted in more severe outbreaks while a decrease in parasitoid fecundity or searching efficiency resulted in an overall elevation of defoliation. Parasitoid efficiency was the most effective parameter for altering the FTC defoliation. Since plant stress has been shown to alter several of these parameters in nature due to changes in food quality, habitat suitability, and chemical cue interference, our results suggest that forests affected by stressors such as climate change and pollution will have more severe and frequent defoliation from these insects than surrounding unaffected forests. As stressors such as drought and pollution emissions are predicted to increase in frequency or intensity over the next few decades, understanding how they may affect the outbreak cycle of a forest defoliator can aid in planning strategies to reduce the detrimental effects of this insect.     

A system dynamics model for the management of the Manila clam, Ruditapes philippinarum (Adams and Reeve, 1850) in the Bay of Arcachon (France)

The Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum (Adams and Reeve, 1850) is one of the mollusc species that, driven mainly by the shellfish market industry, has extended throughout the world, far beyond the limits of its original habitat. The Manila clam was introduced into France for aquaculture purposes, between 1972 and 1975. In France, this venerid culture became increasingly widespread and, since 1988, this species has colonised most of the embayments along the French Atlantic coast. In 2004, this development resulted in a fishery of ca. 520 t in Arcachon Bay.     

Multimodal signals,imperfect information,and identification of sex in red-backed salamanders (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Plethodon cinereus</Emphasis>)

Theoretical treatments and empirical studies both suggest that signals that occur in multiple sensory modes have superior detectabilities, discriminabilities, and memorabilities. There is also an intuitive link between signal detectability, discriminability, and memorability and the quality of information that is transferred via the signaler. We investigated the role of information quality and sensory modality in the sexual identification of intruding conspecifics by territorial male red-backed salamanders (Plethodon cinereus). Our results imply that these salamanders are able to discriminate between intruding male and female conspecifics (based on the allocation of aggression) in bimodal scenarios (vision and olfaction) even under situations in which the information available about the intruders sexual identities is reduced in quality. In unimodal scenarios (olfaction only), male residents exhibited heightened levels of aggression toward male secretions and reduced levels of aggression toward female secretions. In unimodal scenarios where information pertaining to the sex of the stimulus was reduced in quality, male residents displayed intermediate levels of aggression relative to the responses that male and female stimuli received respectively. Although resident males touched bimodal stimuli significantly more than they touched unimodal stimuli, we were unable to find support for the notion that sensory modality greatly influences how male resident red-backed salamanders allocate aggression toward intruding male versus female stimuli.Communicated by H. Kokko     

Differential responses in American (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Castanea dentata</Emphasis> Marshall) and Chinese (<Emphasis Type="Italic">C. mollissima</Emphasis> Blume) chestnut (Falales: Fagaceae) to foliar application of jasmonic acid

Summary.  Tannins are plant defense compounds that exhibit antibiotic (e.g. toxic) and antixenotic (e.g. repellent) effects against an array of plant pests. They are broadly divided into two major groups, hydrolysable tannins (gallotannins and ellagitannins) and proanthocyanidins, each with an undetermined number of compounds. We investigated constitutive levels of hydrolysable tannins and proanthocyanidins in the leaves and stems of American (Castanea dentata Marshall) (Fagales: Fagaceae) and Chinese (C. mollissima Blume) chestnut. American chestnut contained more proanthocyanidins in leaves and stems than Chinese chestnut, but Chinese chestnut contained more foliar hydrolysable tannins. Regardless of these differences, gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L, Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) performance did not differ when fed American and Chinese chestnuts. We also investigated the effects of jasmonic acid (JA) treatment on differential tannin induction in American and Chinese chestnut leaves and stems. JA treatment increased proanthocyanidins in American chestnut stems and hydrolysable tannins in both tissue types of American chestnut, but did not influence tannin concentrations in Chinese chestnut leaves or stems. HPLC-ESI-MS analysis of pooled samples suggested that hydrolysable tannins in each tissue were qualitatively comprised primarily of ellagitannins, and JA generally increased the number of hydrolysable tannins that could be detected by ESI-MS. Third, we investigated the performance of gypsy moths on JA treated and untreated American and Chinese chestnut. Caterpillar relative growth was not influenced by JA treatment on Chinese chestnut, but decreased in response to JA application on American chestnut. Our results indicate that JA-dependent defenses differ between these chestnut species. This study improves our understanding of ecologically important differences in tannin induction and herbivore susceptibility in Castanea, and has important implications in efforts for American chestnut restoration and commercial chestnut production.     

A concept model to estimate the potential distribution of the Asiatic citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama) in Australia under climate change—A means for assessing biosecurity risk

Increasing global temperatures as a result of climate change are widely considered inevitable for Australia. Despite this, the specific effects of climate change on Australian agriculture are little studied and the effects on agricultural pests and diseases are virtually unknown. In this paper we consider the impact of climate change on the Asiatic citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama [Hemiptera: Psyllidae]); one of two known vectors of huanglongbing (citrus greening); a debilitating disease which is caused in Asia by a phloem-limited bacterium ‘Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus’ (α-Proteobacteria). D. citri does not occur in Australia, but if introduced would pose a major threat to the viability of the Australian citrus industry and to native Citrus species. This paper presents an approach developed to understand how climate change may influence the behaviour, distribution and breeding potential of D. citri. Here we developed and describe an initial dynamic point model of D. citri biology in relation to its citrus host and applied it to a scenario of increasing temperatures, as indicators of climate change, on a continental scale. A comparison between model outputs for the three time frames considered (1990, 2030 and 2070) confirms that increasing temperatures projected under climate change will affect the timing and duration of new citrus growth (flush) necessary for psyllid development throughout Australia. Flushing will start progressively earlier as the temperature increases and be of shorter duration. There will also be a gradual southward expansion of shorter durations of the occurrence of flush. Increasing temperatures will impact on D. citri both directly through alteration of its temperature dependant development cycle and indirectly through the impact on the host flushing cycle. For the whole of Australia, a comparison between model outputs for the three scenarios considered indicates the seasonality of D. citri development will change to match changes in citrus flush initiation. Results indicate that the risk of establishment by D. citri is projected to decrease under increasing temperatures, mainly due to shortened intervals when it can feed on new leaf flushes of the host. However, the spatially heterogeneous results also suggest that regions located on the southern coastline of Australia could become more suitable for D. citri than projected under current temperatures. These results confirm the value of a linked host-pest approach as based on D. citri climatic requirements alone the model would have accounted only for shorter development periods and predicted an increased risk of potential distribution.     

六溴环十二烷暴露对红鳍笛鲷脑乙酰胆碱酯酶和组织氧化应激的影响及评价

六溴环十二烷(C_(12)H_(18)Br_6,简称HBCD)是近年来在环境中广受关注的优先污染物和高产量化学品。实验室条件下以红鳍笛鲷为研究对象,选取其脑组织非特异性生物标志物超氧化物歧化酶(superoxide dismutase,SOD)、谷胱甘肽巯基转移酶(glutathione S-transferases,GST)和丙二醛(malondialdehyde,MDA)及特异性生物标志物乙酰胆碱酯酶(acetylcholinesterase,ACh E)为指标研究了不同浓度HBCD溶液(8.6μg·L~(-1)、43.0μg·L~(-1)和215μg·L~(-1))暴露96 h对红鳍笛鲷脑组织的氧化损伤和神经毒性效应,同时结合综合生物标志物响应指数(integrated biomarker responses index,IBR),对HBCD造成的胁迫水平和毒性效应进行评价。结果表明:HBCD对红鳍笛鲷脑组织中SOD活性和GST活性表现出不同程度的诱导效应,其中暴露初期SOD活性与HBCD浓度呈正相关,但随暴露时间延长与HBCD浓度呈负相关;HBCD对MDA含量和ACh E活性表现出诱导或抑制且存在剂量依赖性,低浓度组MDA含量表现为先抑制后诱导的过程,ACh E活性表现为先诱导后抑制;中浓度组MDA含量和ACh E均表现为抑制效应;高浓度组MDA含量表现为先诱导后抑制的过程,ACh E活性表现为先抑制后诱导。IBR分析结果表明4种生物标志物对HBCD胁迫的敏感性分别为SODGSTACh EMDA,且中、高浓度组的胁迫效应最明显。     

Triterpenoid and caffeic acid derivatives in the leaves of ragweed, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ambrosia artemisiifolia</Emphasis> L. (Asterales: Asteraceae), as feeding stimulants of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ophraella communa</Emphasis> LeSage (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Summary. The leaf beetle Ophraella communa infests almost exclusively Ambrosia artemisiifolia in the fields of Japan, even though it normally feeds on several Asteraceous plants. A filter paper bioassay showed that the feeding of O. communa is strongly stimulated by methanolic extracts of A. artemisiifolia. The feeding stimulants for O. communa have been isolated from methanolic extracts of A. artemisiifolia. -Amyrin acetate, -amyrin acetate, 5-caffeoylquinic acid (chlorogenic acid) and 3,5-dicaffeoylquinic acid from A. artemisiifolia have been identified as feeding stimulants for O. communa. Triterpenoid derivatives (-amyrin acetate or -amyrin acetate) and caffeic acid derivatives (3, 5-dicaffoylquinic acid or 5-caffeoylquinic acid) showed feeding stimulant activity when mixed together.