Effects of local fisheries and ocean productivity on the northeastern Ionian Sea ecosystem

To better understand the effects of fisheries and ocean productivity on the northeastern Ionian Sea we constructed an Ecopath with Ecosim model with 22 functional groups. Data on biomass, production/biomass, consumption/biomass, and diet for each group were estimated or extrapolated from the literature. Fisheries landings and discards were also included. Temporal trajectories were simulated using Ecosim. The model was fitted with time-series data for the most important groups from 1964 to 2006. Simulations highlighted a decline of top predators and of most of the commercial species since the late 1970s. The model shows that the decline of fish resources was mainly caused by an intensive fishing pressure that occurred in the area until the end of the 1990s and also by changes in primary production that impacted the trajectories of the main functional groups. In particular, simulated changes through time in PP impacted the abundance trends of all the commercial species, showing a cascade-up effect through the ecosystem. The application of Ecopath with Ecosim was a useful tool for understanding the trends of the main functional groups of the northeastern Ionian Sea. The model underlined that management actions are needed to restore and protect target species including marine mammals, pelagic and demersal fishes. In particular, measures to reduce overfishing, illegal fishing activities and to respect existing legislations are in need. Moreover, the adoption of marine protected areas could be an effective management measure to guarantee prey survival and to sustain marine predators.     

Modelling the responses of wildlife to human disturbance: An evaluation of alternative management scenarios for black-crowned night-herons

The impact of anthropogenic disturbance on wildlife is increasing becoming a source of concern as the popularity of outdoor recreation rises. There is now more pressure on site managers to simultaneously ensure the continued persistence of wildlife and provide recreational opportunities. Using ‘Simulation of Disturbance Activities’, a model designed to investigate the impact of recreational disturbance on wildlife, we demonstrate how a simulation modelling approach can effectively inform such management decisions. As an example, we explored the implications of various design and management options for a proposed recreational area containing a historic breeding bird colony. By manipulating the proximity, orientation and intensity of recreation, we were able to evaluate the impact of recreational activities on the behaviour of black-crowned night-heron nestlings (Nycticorax nycticorax). Using a classification and regression tree (CART) procedure to analyse simulation output, we explored the dynamics of multiple strategies in concert. Our analysis revealed that there are inherent advantages in implementing multiple strategies as opposed to any single strategy. Nestlings were not disturbed by recreation when bird-watching facility placement (proximity and orientation) and type were considered in combination. In comparison, proximity alone only led to a <10% reduction in disturbance. Thus we demonstrate how simulation models based on customised empirical data can bridge the gap between field studies and active management, enabling users to test novel management scenarios that are otherwise logistically difficult. Furthermore, such models potentially have broad application in understanding human-wildlife interactions (e.g. exploring the implications of roads on wildlife, probability of bird strikes around airports, etc.). They therefore represent a valuable decision-making tool in the ecological design of urban infrastructures.