Risk homeostasis theory: A study of intrinsic compensation

Risk homeostasis theory (RHT) suggests that changes made to the intrinsic risk of environments are negated in one of three ways: behavioural adjustments within the environment, mode migration, and avoidance of the physical risk. To date, this three-way model of RHT has little empirical support, whilst research findings on RHT have at times been diametrically opposed. A reconciliation of apparently opposing findings might be possible by suggesting that extrinsic compensation fails to restore previously existing levels of actual risk in cases where behavioural adjustments within the environment are incapable of negating intrinsic risk changes. This paper reports a study in which behavioural adjustments within the physical risk-taking environment are capable of reconciling target with actual risk. The results provide positive support for RHT in the form of overcompensation for the intrinsic risk change on specific driver behaviours.     

Covariability in three dimensions of teenage driving risk behavior: impaired driving,risky and unsafe driving behavior,and secondary task engagement

Objective: This research examined the extent to which teenagers who engaged in one form of risky driving also engaged in other forms and whether risky driving measures were reciprocally associated over time.

Methods: The data were from waves 1, 2, and 3 (W1, W2, and W3) of the NEXT Generation study, with longitudinal assessment of a nationally representative sample starting with 10th graders starting in 2009–2010. Three measures of risky driving were assessed in autoregressive and cross-lagged analyses: driving while alcohol/drug impaired (DWI), Checkpoints Risky Driving Scale (risky and unsafe driving), and secondary task engagement while driving.

Results: In adjusted autoregression models, the risk variables demonstrated high levels of stability, with significant associations observed across the 3 waves. However, associations between variables were inconsistent. DWI at W2 was associated with risky and unsafe driving at W3 (β = 0.21, P < .01); risky and unsafe driving at W1 was associated with DWI at W2 (β = 0.20, P < .01); and risky and unsafe driving at W2 is associated with secondary task engagement at W3 (β = 0.19, P < .01). Over time, associations between DWI and secondary task engagement were not significant.

Conclusions: Our findings provide modest evidence for the covariability of risky driving, with prospective associations between the Risky Driving Scale and the other measures and reciprocal associations between all 3 variables at some time points. Secondary task engagement, however, appears largely to be an independent measure of risky driving. The findings suggest the importance of implementing interventions that addresses each of these driving risks.     

Evaluation of measures of impairment in real and simulated driving: Results from a randomized,placebo-controlled study

Objective: Standard deviation of lateral position (SDLP) is often the primary outcome in experimental studies on impaired driving. However, other measures may be easier and more practical to obtain and reflect a broader range of driving-related behaviors. We wanted to assess the validity and sensitivity of a range of measures in a driving simulator as well as during real driving and compare these to SDLP.

Methods: Twenty healthy male volunteers undertook 6 driving trials each, 3 in a regular car on a closed track resembling rural road conditions and 3 in a simulator with an identical driving scenario. Ethanol was used as impairing substance due to its well-characterized effects on driving. The subjects were tested sober and at blood alcohol concentrations (BAC) of approximately 0.5 and 0.9 g/L. We explored dose–response relationships between BAC and a range of driving-related measures, as well as their BAC-dependent effect sizes.

Results: In simulator driving, ethanol intake increased steering wheel reversal frequency, steering wheel movement measures, average speed, standard deviation of speed, and pedal use frequency. At the test track, only steering wheel movement and standard deviation of speed were significantly correlated to BAC. Likewise, reaction to unexpected incidents and observance of red traffic lights were adversely affected by ethanol in the simulator but not at the test track. Whereas SDLP showed a relatively large effect size that was similar in simulated and real driving, all other measures demonstrated smaller effect sizes, with less pronounced BAC effects on the test track than in the simulator.

Conclusions: The results suggest that the driving-related measures explored in this study are less sensitive to alcohol-mediated driving impairment than SDLP, especially during real (test track) driving. The discrepancy in effect sizes between simulated and real driving may imply low external validity of these measures in simulator studies.     

On-road and simulated driving: concurrent and discriminant validation

Introduction

A converging pair of studies investigated the validity of a simulator for measuring driving performance/skill.

Study 1

A concurrent validity study compared novice driver performance during an on-road driving test with their performance on a comparable simulated driving test.

Results

Results showed a reasonable degree of concordance in terms of the distribution of driving errors on-road and errors on the simulator. Moreover, there was a significant relationship between the two when driver performance was rank ordered according to errors, further establishing the relative validity of the simulator. However, specific driving errors on the two tasks were not closely related suggesting that absolute validity could not be established and that overall performance is needed to establish the level of skill.

Study 2

A discriminant validity study compared driving performance on the simulator across three groups of drivers who differ in their level of experience - a group of true beginners who had no driving experience, a group of novice drivers who had completed driver education and had a learner's permit, and a group of fully licensed, experienced drivers.

Results

The findings showed significant differences among the groups in the expected direction -- the various measures of driving errors showed that beginners performed worse than novice drivers and that experienced drivers had the fewest errors. Collectively, the results of the concurrent and discriminant validity studies support the use of the simulator as a valid measure of driving performance for research purposes.

Impact on industry

These findings support the use of a driving simulator as a valid measure of driving performance for research purposes. Future research should continue to examine validity between on-road driving performance and performance on a driving simulator and the use of simulated driving tests in the evaluation of driver education/training programs.     

Being watched over by a conversation robot may enhance safety in simulated driving

IntroductionIn an aging society that is more and more information-oriented, being able to replace human passengers’ protective effects on vehicle drivers with those of social robots is both essential and promising. However, the effects of a social robot’s presence on drivers have not yet been fully explored. Thus, using a driving simulator and a conversation robot, this experimental study had two main goals: (a) to find out whether social robots’ anthropomorphic qualities (i.e., not the practical information the robot provides drivers) have protective effects by promoting attentive driving and alleviating crash risks; and (b) by what psychological processes such effects emerge. Method: Participants were recruited from young (n = 38), the middle-aged (n = 39), and the elderly (n = 49) age groups. They were assigned to either the treatment group (simulated driving in a conversation robot’s presence) or the control group (simulated driving alone), and their driving performance was measured. Mental states (peaceful, concentrating, and reflective) also were assessed in a post-driving questionnaire using our original scales. Results: Although the group of older participants did not experience protective effects (perhaps due to motion sickness), the young participants drove attentively, with the robot enhancing peace of mind. The protective effect was also observed among the middle-aged participants, and the verbal data analysis ascribed this to the robot’s role of expressing sympathy, especially when the middle-aged drivers nearly had not-at-fault crashes, which caused them to be stressed. In conclusion, we discuss the practical implications of the results.     

Automatic imitation of risky behavior: a study of simulated driving in china

Objective: Imitation of risky behaviors among drivers is a potentially dangerous threat to driving safety but is infrequently discussed in the existing literature. To enrich the understanding of drivers' imitation behaviors on the road, 2 experiments were designed for a simulated traffic environment. Methods: Safe and risky behaviors were demonstrated by model vehicles separately in the 2 experiments, and imitation behaviors of the participants were observed and analyzed. Results: From experiment 1 it was found that the following distance of participants (measured in time headway) was affected by the distance demonstrated by other vehicles on the road. The influence was stronger when the speed was low, and the participants imitated both risky and safe behavior models. When the speed was high, the participants tended to only learn safe behaviors. In experiment 2, when approaching yellow lights, it was examined whether a driver's decision (pass or stop) would be affected by the behavior of another vehicle (the model vehicle), which was designed to either pass through or stop at the intersection. When the model vehicle ran the yellow light, 65 percent of the participants did the same, even though they were 30?m behind the model vehicle. In contrast, if the model vehicle stopped at the intersection, only 25 percent of the participants decided to pass. Conclusions: It was found that both novice and experienced participants had the tendency to imitate what they saw but were rarely aware of the influence by other drivers in both scenarios.     

事故损失统计中的量化问题

简要介绍了事故损失统计中一些量化方法的应用,同时提出用方差分析来确定加权系数的取舍。     

Sensitivity evaluation of the visual,tactile, and auditory detection response task method while driving

Objectives: In this article, we evaluate the sensitivity to cognitive load of 3 versions of the Detection Response Task method (DRT), proposed in ISO Draft Standard DIS-17488.

Methods: We present a user study with 30 participants in which we compared the sensitivity to cognitive load of visual, audio, and tactile DRT in a simulated driving environment. The amount of cognitive load was manipulated with secondary n-back tasks at 2 levels of difficulty (0-back and 1-back). We also explored whether the DRT method is least sensitive to cognitive load when the stimuli and secondary task are of the same modality. For this purpose, we used 3 forms to present the n-back task stimuli: visual, audio, and tactile. Responses to the task were always vocal. The experiment was based on a between-subject design (the DRT modalities) with 2 levels of within-subject design study (modalities and difficulty of the secondary n-back tasks). The participants' primary task in the study was to drive safely, and a second priority was to answer to DRT stimuli and perform secondary tasks.

Results: The results indicate that all 3 versions of the DRT tested were sensitive to detecting the difference in cognitive load between the reference driving period and driving and engaging in the secondary tasks. Only the visual DRT discriminated between the 0-back and 1-back conditions on mean response time. Contrary to expectations, no interaction was observed between DRT modality and the stimuli modality used for presentation of the secondary tasks.

Conclusions: None of the 3 methods of presenting DRT stimuli showed a consistent advantage in sensitivity in differentiating multiple levels of cognitive load if all response times, hit rates, and secondary task performance are considered. If only response time is considered, the visual presentation of the DRT stimulus used in this study showed some advantages. In interpreting these data, it should be noted that the methods of DRT stimulus presentation varied somewhat from the currently proposed draft ISO standard and it is possible that the relative salience level of the visual DRT stimulus influenced the findings. It is further suggested that more than 2 levels of difficulty of the n-back task should be considered for further investigation of the relative sensitivity of different DRT stimuli modalities. Parameters that indicate change in cognitive load (response time, hit rate, task performance) should be analyzed together in assessing the overall impact on the driver and not individually, in order to obtain a fuller insight of the assessed cognitive load.     

Teenage driving after using marijuana or drinking and traffic accident involvement

Anonymous random digit dialing telephone surveys of nearly 6000 16–19 year old respondents were conducted in Massachusetts and Upstate New York in 1979–1981. These surveys explored frequency of driving after using marijuana, driving after drinking, respondent accident involvement in the year prior to the interview, and a variety of other respondent characteristics. Frequency of driving after using marijuana and after drinking were each associated with greater accident involvement. To isolate the accident risk of driving after marijuana use, respondents who drove after drinking were excluded from a logistic regression analysis. This analysis also controlled for the distance respondents drove and several respondent demographic characteristics. Compared to respondents who did not drive after marijuana use, teenageers who drove after smoking marijuana on at least 6 occasions per month were 2.4 times more likely to be involved in traffic accidents. Those who drove after marijuana use on at least 15 occasions per month were 2.9 times more likely to have an accident.     

建筑火灾坍塌危险性的评估

从建筑火灾坍塌事故的特点及危害入手,分析了火灾中影响建筑坍塌时间的因素,阐述了建筑火灾坍塌前兆,得出建筑火灾坍塌危险性评估结论:在无爆炸发生情况下,无先天质量问题的钢筋混凝土建筑,一般在火灾持续5、6个小时内不会发生整体坍塌;我国北方建筑比南方的建筑普遍抗烧塌性相对较强;按防震设计的震区建筑,其火灾抗塌性明显增强;灭火冷却及时的建筑不易坍塌。     

视觉记忆型次任务对驾驶绩效及安全的影响

为研究视觉记忆型次任务对驾驶绩效及安全的影响,采用对未知内容的记忆任务和对已知内容的再认任务分别表征工作记忆和长时记忆过程,构建多组不同难度的次任务,基于标准换道试验环境LCT进行双任务研究。提取并分析驾驶人执行不同任务时车道保持、换道控制等指标的差异以及次任务绩效,基于主客观数据构建综合评判模型。结果表明:双任务驾驶条件下,车辆平均路径偏差、方向盘平均转向角、车道偏移次数指标增大,正确换道比例减小,感知负荷增大,总绩效下降。困难工作记忆组与简单工作记忆组相比,随着任务难度增大,换道控制绩效下降,感知负荷增大,总绩效下降36.1%;困难再认组与工作记忆组相比,车道保持绩效、换道控制绩效提高,感知负荷下降,总绩效提高50%;简单再认组与工作记忆组相比,总绩效变化不大;困难工作记忆组综合绩效最低。上述结果说明:随着次任务难度增大,总绩效下降,但将对未知内容的工作记忆过程转化为对已知内容的再认过程时,总绩效明显提升,这一特点在任务难度较大时更为显著。     

Both texting and eating are associated with impaired simulated driving performance

Objective: Distracted driving is a known contributor to traffic accidents, and many states have banned texting while driving. However, little is known about the potential accident risk of other common activities while driving, such as eating. The objective of the current study was to examine the adverse impact of eating/drinking behavior relative to texting and nondistracted behaviors on a simulated driving task. Methods: A total of 186 participants were recruited from undergraduate psychology courses over 2 semesters at Kent State University. We utilized the Kent Multidimensional Assessment Driving Simulation (K-MADS) to compare simulated driving performance among participants randomly assigned to texting (N = 45), eating (N = 45), and control (N = 96) conditions. Multivariate analyses of variance (MANOVA) were conducted to examine between-group differences on simulated driving indices. Results: MANOVA analyses indicated that groups differed in simulated driving performance, F(14, 366) = 7.70, P < .001. Both texting and eating produced impaired driving performance relative to controls, though these behaviors had approximately equal effect. Specifically, both texting and eating groups had more collisions, pedestrian strikes, and center line crossings than controls. In addition, the texting group had more road edge excursions than either eating or control participants and the eating group missed more stop signs than controls. Conclusions: These findings suggest that both texting and eating are associated with poorer simulated driving performance. Future work is needed to determine whether these findings generalize to real-world driving and the development of strategies to reduce distracted driving.     

北京市燃气事故风险评估与控制对策

对北京市近年来的燃气状况进行了分析,从燃气系统存在的风险源出发,找出了北京市燃气系统存在的风险以及衍生和次生灾害;运用系统安全分析的＂人-机-环-管＂理论,考虑了燃气设施及管理的风险承受力和控制力,找出了影响燃气突发事件风险发生的可能性因素和后果严重性因素,从而建立了风险可能性和后果严重性的指标体系;利用风险矩阵从多角度对城八区天然气管网系统进行风险评估,确定风险等级,提出了防止燃气事故发生的安全防范措施,以增强北京燃气设施的安全稳定运行。     

The effects of personality and gender on risky driving behaviour and accident involvement

The present study investigates the effects of personality traits and gender on risky driving behaviour and accident involvement. A sample of Norwegian adolescents in two Norwegian counties participated (n = 1356). Anxiety was significantly correlated to excitement-seeking and risky driving behaviour, and excitement-seeking was significantly correlated to risky driving behaviour and collisions. Through a regression analysis, personality traits and gender were found to explain 37.3% of the variance in risky driving behaviour. However, the relations were not very strong, and the personality traits did only explain a moderate part of the variance. Possible explanations for this as well as methodological considerations are discussed. Directions for further research are suggested.     

A pre/post evaluation of fatigue,stress and vigilance amongst commercially licensed truck drivers performing a prolonged driving task

Purpose. The main purpose of this research study was to evaluate changes in fatigue, stress and vigilance amongst commercially licensed truck drivers involved in a prolonged driving task. The secondary purpose was to determine whether a new ergonomic seat could help reduce both physical and cognitive fatigue during a prolonged driving task. Two different truck seats were evaluated: an industrial standard seat and a new truck seat prototype. Methods. Twenty male truck drivers were recruited to attend two testing sessions, on two separate days, with each session randomized for seat design. During each session, participants performed two 10-min simulated driving tasks. Between simulated sessions, participants drove a long-haul truck for 90 min. Fatigue and stress were quantified using a series of questionnaires whereas vigilance was measured using a standardized computer test. Results. Seat interactions had a significant effect on fatigue patterns. Conclusion. The new ergonomic seat design holds potential in improving road safety and vehicle accidents due to fatigue-related accidents.     

Risk taking and accident frequency among Finnish forestry workers

The results of previous studies on the relationship between risk taking and accidents have been contradictory. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between risk taking and accident frequency among Finnish forestry workers. The subjects were 228 forestry workers whose risk taking was measured on a questionnaire with 25 items. The accident frequency was calculated based on both company-recorded and self-reported accidents. There were no significant relationships between risk taking and accident frequency. Even after elimination of age and work experience by partial correlations, there was no significant correlation between risk taking and accident frequency. Of the personality traits of the forestry workers, impulsiveness and neuroticism correlated significantly with risk taking but not with accident frequency. Two explanations for the failure to find significant correlation between risk taking and accident frequency are given.     

Risky driving and the perception of motorcycle accident causes among chinese motorcyclists in Hong Kong

Objective: The primary purposes of this study were to explore the relationship between risk-taking acts while driving motorcycles and perceived causes of motorcycle accidents, as well as their contribution to active involvement in traffic accidents among Chinese motorcyclists in Hong Kong. Active involvement means the riders was likely at fault for the crash. Methods: A total of 774 motorcyclists were recruited, of whom 292 had been involved in active motorcycle accident in the previous 3?years. All were asked to fill in a questionnaire, which was developed to assess their risk-taking acts while driving a motorcycle and perception of motorcycle accident causes. Results: The results of the study revealed 3 dimensions of accident causes, namely, driving-related, environment-related, and belief-related causes. These motorcycle accident causes were correlated with risk-taking acts while driving a motorcycle. A multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that risk-taking acts while driving motorcycles (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 1.036, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.020-1.052), perception of driving-related cause (adjusted OR: 0.941, 95% CI: 0.916-0.967), and belief-related cause (adjusted OR: 1.134, 95% CI: 1.088-1.182) were significant factors contributing to involvement in active traffic accidents by motorcycle riders after controlling for concurrent demographic variables. Conclusions: The study highlights that perceived causes of motorcycle accidents are multidimensional, including those areas related to driving, the environment, and beliefs. It substantiates previous studies that a higher degree of driving-related risk perception is related to a lower degree of risk-taking acts while driving. Further research is needed to understand why belief-related causes, sometimes called superstitions, lead riders to believe that it is beyond their ability to affect accident causation and prevention.     

Exploring relationships between microscopic kinetic parameters of tires under normal driving conditions,road characteristics and accident types

IntroductionFreeway accidents are a leading cause of death in China, which also triggers substantial economic loss and an emotional burden to society. However, the internal mechanism of how microscopic kinetic parameters of vehicles influenced by road characteristics determine the occurrence of different types of accidents has not been explicitly studied. This research aimed to explore the “link role” of tire microscopic kinetic parameters in road characteristic variables and traffic accidents to aid in facilitating the traffic design and management, and thus to prevent traffic accident. Method: A mountain freeway in Zhejiang Province, China was used as the research object and the data used in this paper were obtained through a real-time vehicle experiment. Multiple estimation models, including the standard ordered logit (SOL) model, fixed parameters logit (FPL) model, and random parameters logit (RPL) model were established. Results: The findings show that road characteristics will affect the longitudinal kinetic characteristics of the vehicle and, consequently, map the level of risk of rear-end accidents. Driving compensation effects were also identified in this paper (i.e., the drivers tend to be more cautious in complicated driving circumstances). Another finding relating to the mountain freeway is that different tunnel characteristics (e.g., tunnel entrance and tunnel exit) have different effects on different types of traffic accidents. Practical Applications: The framework proposed in this article can provide new insight for researchers to enlarge the research subjects of both explanatory and outcome variables in accident analysis. Future research could be implemented to consider more driving conditions.     

Representativity and univocity of traffic signs and their effect on trajectory movement in a driving simulation task: Warning signs

Objective: The effect of traffic signs on the behavior of drivers is not completely understood. Knowing about how humans process the meaning of signs (not just by learning but instinctively) will improve reaction time and decision making when traveling. The economic, social, and psychological consequences of car accidents are well known.

Methods: This study sounds out which traffic signs are more ergonomic for participants, from a cognitive point of view, and determines, at the same time, their effect in participants' movement trajectories in a driving simulation task.

Results: Results point out that the signs least representative of their meaning produce a greater deviation from the center of the road than the most representative ones.

Conclusions: This study encourages both an in-depth analysis of the effect on movement of roadside signs and the study of how this effect can be modified by the context in which these signs are presented (with the aim to move the research closer to and analyze the data in real contexts). The goal is to achieve clarity of meaning and lack of counterproductive effects on the trajectory of representative signs (those that provoke fewer mistakes in the decision task).