20世纪全球重大毒性灾害及其历史教训

本文回顾了20世纪世界41个国家发生的200起重大毒性灾害，分析研究了毒性灾害种类的历史演变、成因与特征，及其对人类社会和经济发展造成的重大影响和与经济损失。研究表明，随着科技发展与经济的全球化，21世纪将是毒性灾害频繁发生的时期，应从历史事件中汲取经验教训，采取果断有力措施，减少毒性灾害的发生，减轻毒性灾害造成的损失。     

A scoping review of post-disaster social support investigations conducted after disasters that struck the Australia and Oceania continent

This scoping review provides a summary of research findings on social support dynamics in the wake of disasters that occurred on the continent of Australia and Oceania between 1983 and 2013. Forty-one studies, quantitative and qualitative, were summarised, investigating different facets of post-disaster supportive interactions. All inquiries assessed disasters resulting from natural hazards, with the majority of them conducted following events in Australia and New Zealand. The review revealed similar patterns of post-disaster social support dynamics that routinely unfold after disastrous incidents all over the world. Consistent with the disaster mental health literature, the documentation of social support mobilisation and social support deterioration processes was common. Salutary direct effects of supportive behaviours on post-disaster psychological distress were also highly evident. Most studies, however, posed research questions or hypotheses that lacked empirical or theoretical grounding. In conclusion, the review offers several recommendations on how to advance research on post-disaster social support.     

The humanitarian response costs of climate change

This research attempts to improve understanding of how climate change may affect international humanitarian spending, using existing international databases that track disaster occurrence and humanitarian costs. A range of potential impact scenarios is developed employing four distinct methodological approaches. The findings indicate that climate change will have a significant impact on humanitarian costs and the increase could range from a 32 per cent increase (taking into account only changes in frequency of disasters) to upwards of a 1,600 per cent increase when other criteria, such as intensity, are also taken into account. The paper further highlights that extreme weather events do not occur in isolation and the increasing interconnectedness of world economic and political systems has made disasters more complex and destructive. It makes a number of recommendations, including the need for more rigorous and systematic collection of disaster-related data and more constructive interaction between the humanitarian and climate change communities on future research, planning and action.     

Livelihoods,precarity, and disaster vulnerability: Nicaragua and Hurricane Mitch

How livelihoods determine vulnerability to disasters is a recent topic of inquiry. Few quantitative works have been produced to date. The empirical analysis that follows draws on household‐level data available for Nicaragua, preceding and following Hurricane Mitch, a devastating Category 5 storm that made landfall in Central America in October 1998, to examine differentials in disaster recovery outcomes vis‐à‐vis household livelihood profiles. Livelihoods are distinguished according to economic sector along with ownership of productive means, a central mechanism of vulnerability under sociological labour frameworks. The findings indicate uneven recovery outcomes in relation to livelihoods. During the year immediately following the event, agricultural wage earners and agricultural owner‐producers experienced marked losses owing to the disaster, whereas business owners saw an improvement in condition. Analysis of long‐term recovery reveals that households reliant on agricultural wage employment exhibit lagged recovery relative to other livelihood profiles. The findings are discussed with respect to the dynamic pressures posed by contemporary developmental processes.     

全息理论与灾害周期性

地球系统是宇宙系统的全息缩影，地球上的灾害和天体之间具有全息关系，同样有恒定的周期性。本文根据全息理论对灾害进行分析预测，并建议在灾害研究中应用全息理论．     

减灾事业的发展和综合减灾

中国减灾事业的发展史可分3个阶段:第一阶段是新中国成立以前的几千年,减灾活动以赈灾为主,帝王“祭天求恕”,“防灾吏制”,安抚于民。清末民初1800至1949年间计发生巨灾25起,死亡4993万余人,总灾亡则近亿,年均灾亡60万人以上,这段惨痛的灾况记下了十分难得的灾情史,泣血于残野。新中国成立后,在“为人民服务”的思想指导下,为减轻灾害损失,逐步建立了气象、水利、农林、地震、海洋、地质等专业的灾害科技与减灾工程,政府并组织社会兼事抗灾、救灾、应急减灾,国家减灾实力快速增长,已取得突出减灾实效,这个阶段比第一阶段灾亡人数下降了90%以上,但年均灾亡人口仍有1.2万人左右。该阶段的工作特点是以单灾种纵向体系为主,不同灾类的监测、预报水平尚高低不一,这与成灾机理的难易程度和工作条件的强弱有关。21世纪初,随全球增温之势锐升,多类极端灾变遍及各洲,促使许多国家发动全社会人众共同探求“综合减灾”之路;我国政府已迅即开展全社会应急减灾行动,开启了“综合减灾”之先声,这是减灾事业步入第三阶段的先导。综合减灾应该是全社会相关部门和民众的统一行动。目前尚有3个问题需要弄清楚,一是多种自然灾害之间成灾机理相关性的研究,其对象是灾害群与灾害链;二是全社会减灾要素综合运作预案的优选;三是如何核算减灾投入与社会可持续发展之正、负效应关系。     

Learning from others: the scope and challenges for participatory disaster risk assessment

This paper develops a framework based on procedural, methodological and ideological elements of participatory vulnerability and risk assessment tools for placing individual approaches within the wide range of work that claims a participatory, local or community orientation. In so doing it draws on relevant experience from other areas of development practice from which the disasters field can learn. Participatory disaster risk assessments are examined for their potential to be empowering, to generate knowledge, to be scaled up, to be a vehicle for negotiating local change and as part of multiple-methods approaches to disaster risk identification and reduction. The paper is a response to an international workshop on Community Risk Assessment organised by ProVention Consortium and the Disaster Mitigation for Sustainable Livelihoods Programme, University of Cape Town. The workshop brought together practitioners and academics to review the challenges and opportunities for participatory methodologies in the field of disaster risk reduction. In conclusion the contribution made by participatory methodologies to global disaster risk reduction assessment and policy is discussed.     

A LESSON FROM THE MAIN TOXIC DISASTERS IN THE 20th CENTURY

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Listing for change? Exploring the politics of relief lists in Bangladesh after Cyclone Sidr

Ideal notions of efficient aid are challenged continuously by realities on the ground in the wake of major disasters, such as dire needs, limited resources, and opportunism. This paper demonstrates how ‘relief lists’ can be productive entry points for a systematic inquiry into the pervasive politics of disaster assistance. Through an analysis of qualitative data collected during the five years after Cyclone Sidr struck Bangladesh on 15 November 2007, it examines how relief lists featured in both physical and phantom forms and then developed beyond their transparency-making aims, becoming elevated sites of struggle for post-disaster resources. Three list processes, selected to indicate the temporal, material, and spatial dynamics of relief encounters, are assessed in depth. Although recipients of cyclone relief appreciated its value, the paper argues that list politics also stimulated structures of vulnerability, including inequality. Gradually, relief, as governed after Sidr, also served to restore the differential vulnerability of the country's coastal poor.     

汕头市风灾减灾对策探讨——从"尤特"台风谈起

对风灾频繁的城市而言 ,有计划地确立合理的减灾对策是城市必须面对的课题。本文在简要分析城市风灾减灾研究现状的基础上 ,通过汕头市抗击“尤特”台风的实例 ,提出了跨入新世纪时汕头市在确立风灾的减灾对策中的思路。     

Reducing post-disaster conflict: a cross-cultural test of four hypotheses using archaeological data

Four hypotheses concerning the relationship between climate-related disasters and conflict are tested using archaeological data in a controlled cross-cultural comparison. The four hypotheses are (1) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters because local economic conditions deprive polities of tax revenue so that they can no longer suppress conflict; (2) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters because existing social inequalities lead to conflicts over differential access to resources; (3) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters because migration forces population into condensed settlements ripe for conflict; and (4) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters in polities where leaders tightly control access to political authority because leaders may use violence to maintain control over the resources they use to secure support from other elites. Only the fourth hypothesis is supported. It is argued that understanding pre-disaster political strategies is key to understanding post-disaster conflict.     

灾害地貌链及其临界过程初探

在灾害链定义的基础上提出了灾害地貌链的定义 (即由地貌灾害所构成的灾害链 ) ,基于不同的标准将其划分为不同的种类 ,运用苏姆的地貌临界理论对地貌灾害中的两种临界进行浅析 ,最后运用耗散结构理论来探讨灾害地貌链中的临界过程。     

荷兰的实时洪水管理：1993年和1995年洪水的比较研究

洪水灾害是影响荷兰经济持续发展的一个关键因素。本文详细介绍了荷兰的洪灾管理体系，并以１９９３年和１９９５年冬季洪水实时管理过程为例，分析比较了这两次洪水的政府管理行为的差异。     

REVIEW ON GLOBAL NATURAL DISASTERS IN 2000

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皖南山区滑坡灾害调查及评估方法

对皖南山区三个自然村的滑坡灾害进行了现场调查,分析研究了引起滑坡的机理,对滑坡造成的房屋损失和无家可归人员进行了分类、评估,给出了地质灾害评估的方法。     

自然灾害对人们行为的影响--中国历史上农民战争与中国自然灾害的关系

自然灾害不仅给人民的生产生活带来各种影响，对于人本身行为的影响也是不容忽视。从秦朝统一中国至清朝灭亡的2000多年间，中国发生了大小成百上千次农民战争。虽然每一次农民战争都有其深刻的社会原因，但多数都发生在出现了自然灾害的时候。本文通过大量的历史史实证明了自然灾害是导致农民战争的直接导火索。并以史为鉴，提出几点警示。     

陕南地区清代霜雪灾害及分形特征研究

通过对陕南清代历史文献资料的搜集、整理和分析,研究了清代(1644-1911年)陕南霜雪灾害等级、阶段变化及不同等级灾害周期性等。统计分析显示,陕南清代发生霜雪灾害28次,平均每9.57年发生一次;霜雪灾害可划分为轻度、中度、重度三级,各占灾害总频次的21%,72%和7%;清代霜雪灾害可分为4个阶段,其中1644-1668年和1819-1868年的第1、第3阶段为灾害多发期,而1669-1818年和1869-1911年的第2、第4阶段为灾害少发期。霜雪灾害的自相似性揭示了灾害的分形性,分形结果显示陕南地区清代各等级灾害呈周期变化,且这些灾害的集中性非常强。陕南清代轻度、中度和重度霜雪灾害发生分别存在着16～18 a,7～8 a和46 a振荡周期。该地区霜雪灾害的发生主要是偏暖月的持续性降雪、积雪或由寒流引起的气温骤降造成的。初步确定陕南清代发生了两次霜雪灾害气候事件,时间在公元1649-1663年和1817-1842年。     

山西省1999年旱情分析及抗灾自救对策

山西省１９９９年遭受到了连续第三个年关的旱灾,粮食总产量比上年下降了２４％,是新中国成立以来减产幅度最大的年份。本文对旱情、旱灾进行了分析,对抗灾自救中的呈些具体作法进行了概括性的总结,最后用粮食生产产量的具体事例进行了抗旱效益性分析。     

DIFFERENT TYPES OF DISASTERS IN RECENT 10 YEARS IN ANHUI AND THEIR TREND

TheconditionsofdisastersinAnhuiinrecent 1 0 years　Thenaturaldisastersandman madeaccidentsinAnhuiProvincecanbedividedintothefollowingtypes:Meteorologicaldisasters　Inthemovementofatmosphereandsynopticsystemoccurabnormality,whichcausestotheearthandhumansocialandeconomicactivitieseffectsanddamages,thatarecalledmeteo rologicaldisaster.AnhuiProvinceislocatedbetween 2 9°4 1′～ 34° 38′Nand 1 1 4°54′～ 1 1 9°37′E,theretheeastis 1 6 0kmapartfromtheYellowSea,andthenorthisthebroadHuang Huai …