The Long-Term Effects of Tiger Poaching on Population Viability

Poaching tigers, primarily for their bones, has become the latest threat to the persistence of wild tiger populations throughout the world. Anecdotal information indicates the seriousness of this new threat. It is important, however, to provide a quantitative analysis of poaching as a basis for strong policy action. We therefore created a tiger simulation model to explore the effects of realistic levels of poaching on population viability. The model is an individually based, stochastic spatial model that is based on the extensive data set from Royal Chitwan National Park, Nepal. We found that as poaching continues over time, the probability of population extinction increases sigmoidally; a critical zone exists in which a small, incremental increase in poaching greatly increases the probability of extinction. The implication is that poaching may not at first be seen as a threat but could suddenly become one. Moreover, even if poaching is effectively stopped, tiger populations will still be vulnerable and could go extinct due to demographic and environmental stochasticity. Our model also shows that poaching reduces genetic variability, which could further reduce population viability due to inbreeding depression. The longer poaching is allowed to continue, the more vulnerable a population will be to these stochastic events. At currently reported rates of poaching our analysis indicates that many wild tiger populations will be extirpated during the latter half of the 1990s.     

The spatial nexus between population growth and land degradation in a dry Mediterranean region: a rapidly changing pattern?

A better understanding of the spatial linkage between the distribution of land vulnerable to degradation and long-term population growth may contribute to sustainable land management of dry regions. Such a nexus has received increasing attention among politicians and local stakeholders, as its complex outcomes depend on mutual interactions between socioeconomic and biophysical factors. This is particularly true in southern Europe, where important processes of land degradation (LD) have been observed in recent years. This paper analyses population growth (1871–2007) in southern Italy and questions its relationship with the level of land vulnerable to degradation. Results indicate that vulnerable lands were more likely associated with areas where population growth has determined environmental pressures on coastal areas and the neighbouring lowlands during 1950–1980. This pattern consolidated the socioeconomic polarisation between core and peripheral areas. Since the 1980s, however, southern Italy has experienced a phase of polycentric development, possibly determining a ‘decoupling’ between population density and land vulnerability to degradation. Population increased in moderately vulnerable areas but decreased in highly vulnerable areas. The policy implications of these results are discussed.     

A model of ecological and evolutionary consequences of color polymorphism

We summarize direct and indirect effects on fitness components of animal color pattern and present a synthesis of theories concerning the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of chromatic multiple niche polymorphisms. Previous endeavors have aimed primarily at identifying conditions that promote the evolution and maintenance of polymorphisms. We consider in a conceptual model also the reciprocal influence of color polymorphism on population processes and propose that polymorphism entails selective advantages that may promote the ecological success of polymorphic species. The model begins with an evolutionary branching event from mono- to polymorphic condition that, under the influence of correlational selection, is predicted to promote the evolution of physical integration of coloration and other traits (cf. multi-trait coevolution and complex phenotypes). We propose that the coexistence within a population of alternative ecomorphs with coadapted gene complexes promotes utilization of diverse environmental resources, population stability and persistence, colonization success, and range expansions, and enhances the evolutionary potential and speciation. Conversely, we predict polymorphic populations to be less vulnerable to environmental change and at lower risk of range contractions and extinctions compared with monomorphic populations. We offer brief suggestions as to how these falsifiable predictions may be tested.     

National assessment of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise for the Chinese coast

Sea-level rise as a result of climate change increases inundation and erosion, which are affected by a complex interplay of physical environmental parameters at the coast. China’s coast is vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and associated coastal flooding because of physical and socio-economical factors such as its low topography, highly developed economy, and highly dense population. To identify vulnerable sections of the coast, this paper presents a national assessment of the vulnerability of the Chinese coast using 8 physical variables: sea-level rise, coastal geomorphology, elevation, slope, shoreline erosion, land use, mean tide range, and mean wave height. A coastal vulnerability index was calculated by integrating the differentially weighted rank values of the 8 variables, based on which the coastline is segmented into 4 classes. The results show that 3% of the 18,000-km-long Chinese coast is very highly vulnerable, 29% is highly vulnerable, 58% is moderately vulnerable, and 10% is in the low-vulnerable class. Findings further reveal that large amounts of land and population will be vulnerable to inundation by coastal flooding from sea level rise and storm surge. Finally, some suggestions are presented for decision makers and other concerned stakeholders to develop appropriate coastal zone management and mitigation measures.     

Population dynamics of Müllerian mimicry under interspecific competition

We ask what the effects of mutualism on population dynamics of two competitive species are. We model the population dynamics of mutualistic interactions with positive density- and frequency-dependences. We specifically assume the dynamics of Müllerian mimicry in butterflies, where the mortality of both species is reduced depending on the relative frequency of the other species. We assume that the two species are under Lotka–Volterra density-dependent competition. The equilibria are compared with the cases of competition alone. Unlike the traditional model of positive density-dependence, population explosion does not appear in the current dynamics, but the new equilibrium is simply achieved. It is because the effects of positive density- or frequency-dependence are restricted to parts of mortality. Both positive density- and frequency-dependences do promote coexistence of the mimetic species. However, the two models show a distinctive difference for coexistence. The effects of positive density-dependence are rather limited. In contrast, positive frequency-dependence always promotes coexistence, irrespective of environmental conditions. The results may imply that the evolutionary origin of Müllerian mimicry may depend on frequency-dependence (and density-dependence), but that its current population dynamics may depend solely on density-dependence. The role of frequency- and density-dependences on evolutionary dynamics is an open question.     

Can a water market avert the “double-whammy” of trade reform and lead to a “win–win” outcome?

This paper focuses on the linkages between water and trade policies, using Morocco as a case. This country is typical of many in that policy protects its import competing agricultural and industrial sectors while water in irrigated agriculture is priced below its marginal value product. Changing water policy without correcting for these other distortions leads to a more inefficient allocation of water. On the other hand, reforming trade policy alone can make farmers growing crops protected pre-reform worse off. Using an intertemporal, applied general equilibrium model, we find that trade reform actually creates an opportunity to pursue water policy reform. Creating a water user-rights market post trade reform not only compensates for the decline in farmers’ profits caused by the trade reform, but also raises the efficiency of water allocation and hence benefits the economy as a whole.     

A hydrologically driven model of swamp water mosquito population dynamics

We develop a swamp water mosquito population model that is forced solely by environmental variability. Measured temperature and land surface wetness conditions are used to simulate Anopheles walkeri population dynamics in a northern New Jersey habitat. Land surface wetness conditions, which represent oviposition habitat availability, are derived from simulations using a dynamic hydrology model. Using only these two density-independent effects, population model simulations of biting Anoph. walkeri correlate significantly with light trap collections. These results suggest that prediction of mosquito populations and the diseases they transmit could be better constrained by inclusion of environmental variability.     

土地石漠化的生态地质环境背景及其驱动机制--以贵州省喀斯特山区为例

在分析贵州省喀斯特山区的土地石漠化的生态地质环境背景基础上 ,探讨了土地石漠化内、外动力驱动机制。认为地质构造运动塑造了陡峻而破碎的喀斯特地貌景观 ,由此产生的较大地表切割度和地形坡度 ,为水土流失提供了动力潜能 ;古环境演化为喀斯特石漠化提供了广泛分布的碳酸盐物质。温暖潮湿的季风气候为喀斯特地貌的强烈发育提供了必要的溶蚀条件 ,超载的社会经济压力则是导致喀斯特山区土地石漠化最重要的驱动力。     

Present-day genetic composition suggests contrasting demographic histories of two dominant chaetognaths of the North-East Atlantic, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Sagitta elegans</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">S. setosa</Emphasis>

Sagitta elegans and S. setosa are the two dominant chaetognaths in the North-East (NE) Atlantic. They are closely related and have a similar ecology and life history, but differ in distributional ranges. Sagitta setosa is a typical neritic species occurring exclusively above shelf regions, whereas S. elegans is a more oceanic species with a widespread distribution. We hypothesised that neritic species, because of smaller and more fragmented populations, would have been more vulnerable to population bottlenecks resulting from range contractions during Pleistocene glaciations than oceanic species. To test this hypothesis we compared mitochondrial Cytochrome Oxidase II DNA sequences of S. elegans and S. setosa from sampling locations across the NE Atlantic. Both species displayed very high levels of genetic diversity with unique haplotypes for every sequenced individual and an approximately three times higher level of nucleotide diversity in S. elegans (0.061) compared to S. setosa (0.021). Sagitta setosa mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes produced a star-like phylogeny and a uni-modal mismatch distribution indicative of a bottleneck followed by population expansion. In contrast, S. elegans had a deeper mtDNA phylogeny and a multi-modal mismatch distribution as would be expected from a more stable population. Neutrality tests indicated that assumptions of the standard neutral model were violated for both species and results from the McDonald-Kreitman test suggested that selection played a role in the evolution of their mitochondrial DNA. Congruent with these results, both species had much smaller effective population sizes estimated from genetic data when compared to census population sizes estimated from abundance data, with a factor of ~10⁸–10⁹ difference. Assuming that selective effects are comparable for the two species, we conclude that the difference in genetic signature can only be explained by contrasting demographic histories. Our data are consistent with the hypothesis that in the NE Atlantic, the neritic S. setosa has been more severely affected by population bottlenecks resulting from Pleistocene range shifts than the more oceanic S. elegans.     

Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment

Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.     

Sensitivity and Vulnerability in Marine Environments: an Approach to Identifying Vulnerable Marine Areas

Abstract:  Marine environments have suffered from a lack of quantitative methods for delineating areas that are sensitive or vulnerable to particular stresses, natural and anthropogenic. We define sensitivity as the degree to which marine features respond to stresses, which are deviations of environmental conditions beyond the expected range. Vulnerability can then be defined as the probability that a feature will be exposed to a stress to which it is sensitive. Using these definitions, we provide a quantitative methodology for identifying vulnerable marine areas based on valued ecological features, defined as biological or physical features, processes, or structures deemed by humans to have environmental, social, cultural, or economic significance. The vulnerability of the valued ecological features is a function of their sensitivity to particular stresses and their vulnerability to those stresses. We used the methodology to demonstrate how vulnerable marine areas for two groups of endangered whale species (inshore and offshore) could be identified with a predictive habitat model and acoustic stress surfaces. Acoustic stress surfaces were produced for ferry traffic, commercial shipping traffic, potential offshore oil production, and small-boat traffic. The vulnerabilities of the two whale groups to the four stressors considered in this example were relatively similar; however, inshore species were more sensitive to on-shelf, coastal activities such as offshore hydrocarbon production, ferry traffic, and small-boat traffic. Our approach demonstrates how valued features can be associated with stresses and the likelihood of encountering these stresses (vulnerability) in order to identify geographic areas for management and conservation purposes. The method can be applied to any combination of valued ecological features and stressors.     

Performance of Greater Sage-Grouse Models for Conservation Assessment in the Interior Columbia Basin, U.S.A.

Abstract: Valid modeling of habitats and populations of Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus) is a critical management need because of increasing concern about population viability. Consequently, we evaluated the performance of two models designed to assess landscape conditions for Greater Sage-Grouse across 13.6 million ha of sagebrush steppe in the interior Columbia Basin and adjacent portions of the Great Basin of the western United States (referred to as the basin). The first model, the environmental index model, predicted conditions at the scale of the subwatershed (mean size of approximately 7800 ha) based on inputs of habitat density, habitat quality, and effects of human disturbance. Predictions ranged on a continuous scale from 0 for lowest environmental index to 2 for optimal environmental index. The second model, the population outcome model, predicted the composite, range-wide conditions for sage grouse based on the contribution of environmental index values from all subwatersheds and measures of range extent and connectivity. Population outcomes were expressed as five classes (A through E) that represented a gradient from continuous, well-distributed populations (outcome A) to sparse, highly isolated populations with a high likelihood of extirpation (outcome E). To evaluate performance, we predicted environmental index values and population outcome classes in areas currently occupied by sage grouse versus areas where extirpation has occurred. Our a priori expectations were that models should predict substantially worse environmental conditions ( lower environmental index) and a substantially higher probability of extirpation ( lower population outcome class) in extirpated areas. Results for both models met these expectations. For example, a population outcome of class E was predicted for extirpated areas, as opposed to class C for occupied areas. These results suggest that our models provided reliable landscape predictions for the conditions tested. This finding is important for conservation planning in the basin, where the models were used to evaluate management of federal lands for sage grouse.     

Unprecedented Low Levels of Genetic Variation and Inbreeding Depression in an Island Population of the Black-Footed Rock-Wallaby

Abstract: It has been argued that demographic and environmental factors will cause small, isolated populations to become extinct before genetic factors have a significant negative impact. Islands provide an ideal opportunity to test this hypothesis because they often support small, isolated populations that are highly vulnerable to extinction. To assess the potential negative impact of isolation and small population size, we compared levels of genetic variation and fitness in island and mainland populations of the black-footed rock-wallaby ( Petrogale lateralis [Marsupialia: Macropodidae]). Our results indicate that the Barrow Island population of P. lateralis has unprecedented low levels of genetic variation (  H _e = 0.053, from 10 microsatellite loci) and suffers from inbreeding depression (reduced female fecundity, skewed sex ratio, increased levels of fluctuating asymmetry). Despite a long period of isolation ( ∼ 1600 generations) and small effective population size (  N _e ∼ 15), demographic and environmental factors have not yet driven this population to extinction. Nevertheless, it has been affected significantly by genetic factors. It has lost most of its genetic variation and become highly inbred (  F _e = 0.91), and it exhibits reduced fitness. Because several other island populations of P. lateralis also exhibit exceptionally low levels of genetic variation, this phenomenon may be widespread. Inbreeding in these populations is at a level associated with high rates of extinction in populations of domestic and laboratory species. Genetic factors cannot then be excluded as contributing to the extinction proneness of small, isolated populations.     

The Impact of Increased Environmental Stochasticity Due to Climate Change on the Dynamics of Asiatic Wild Ass

Abstract:  Theory proposes that increased environmental stochasticity negatively impacts population viability. Thus, in addition to the directional changes predicted for weather parameters under global climate change (GCC), the increase in variance of these parameters may also have a negative effect on biodiversity. As a case study, we assessed the impact of interannual variance in precipitation on the viability of an Asiatic wild ass ( Equus hemionus ) population reintroduced in Makhtesh Ramon Nature Reserve, Israel. We monitored the population from 1985 to 1999 to determine what environmental factors affect reproductive success. Annual precipitation during the year before conception, drought conditions during gestation, and population size determined reproductive success. We used the parameters derived from this model to assess population performance under various scenarios in a Leslie matrix type model with demographic and environmental stochasticity. Specifically, we used a change in the precipitation regime in our study area to formulate a GCC scenario and compared the simulated dynamics of the population with a no-change scenario. The coefficient of variation in population size under the global change scenario was 30% higher than under the no-change scenario. Minor die-offs (≥15%) following droughts increased extinction probability nearly 10-fold. Our results support the idea that an increase in environmental stochasticity due to GCC may, in itself, pose a significant threat to biodiversity.     

Using a Bayesian network to clarify areas requiring research in a host–pathogen system

Bayesian network analyses can be used to interactively change the strength of effect of variables in a model to explore complex relationships in new ways. In doing so, they allow one to identify influential nodes that are not well studied empirically so that future research can be prioritized. We identified relationships in host and pathogen biology to examine disease‐driven declines of amphibians associated with amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We constructed a Bayesian network consisting of behavioral, genetic, physiological, and environmental variables that influence disease and used them to predict host population trends. We varied the impacts of specific variables in the model to reveal factors with the most influence on host population trend. The behavior of the nodes (the way in which the variables probabilistically responded to changes in states of the parents, which are the nodes or variables that directly influenced them in the graphical model) was consistent with published results. The frog population had a 49% probability of decline when all states were set at their original values, and this probability increased when body temperatures were cold, the immune system was not suppressing infection, and the ambient environment was conducive to growth of B. dendrobatidis. These findings suggest the construction of our model reflected the complex relationships characteristic of host–pathogen interactions. Changes to climatic variables alone did not strongly influence the probability of population decline, which suggests that climate interacts with other factors such as the capacity of the frog immune system to suppress disease. Changes to the adaptive immune system and disease reservoirs had a large effect on the population trend, but there was little empirical information available for model construction. Our model inputs can be used as a base to examine other systems, and our results show that such analyses are useful tools for reviewing existing literature, identifying links poorly supported by evidence, and understanding complexities in emerging infectious‐disease systems.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Juniperus oxycedrus</Emphasis> ssp.<Emphasis Type="Italic">macrocarpa</Emphasis> in SW Spain: Ecology and conservation problems

Woodlands of the Mediterranean speciesJuniperus oxycedrus ssp.macrocarpa (maritime juniper) are both vulnerable and ecologically important. Their ecology and biological status along the SW coast of Spain are not well known; this, the first major study of these juniper populations is a basis for future research and restoration policies. These communities are subject to harsh conditions, the plant composition being controlled by several factors at different scales. On a large scale, climate and soil texture play an important role in controlling the soil water availability to plants, and in separating xerophytic from mesic communities. On a small scale, coastal physiography, and substrate composition are related to differences in the floristic composition. Coastal plantations modify environmental conditions, such as sand mobility and salt spray deposition, inducing important changes in plant communities. The population of maritime juniper on this coast was estimated in ca. 25 000 individuals, of which 93.6% are concentrated in three locations. Large proportions of young individuals were found in extensive and protected populations. Howerver, adult individuals dominated the smaller populations located under pine plantations. This limitation of recruitment may be imposed by several factors. A male biased ratio was detected on the southern coast of Cádiz, which I hypothesize is due to the lower cost of pollen production in a stressful habitat. Preservation of suitable habitats, the recovery of abandoned pine plantations, and the connection between juniper populations, seem to be important requisites for the conservation of maritime juniper in the southwestern coast of Spain.     

Population dynamics of natural colonies of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Aurelia</Emphasis> sp. scyphistomae in Tasmania,Australia

The aim of this study was to identify potential environmental controls of the asexual phases of reproduction by measuring the rates of asexual reproduction (budding and strobilation) and mortality in naturally occurring populations of Aurelia sp. scyphistomae at different spatial and temporal scales. The percentage cover, density of colonies of Aurelia sp. scyphistomae, and density of the population of two naturally occurring colonies of Aurelia sp. scyphistomae were examined over 2 years in southern Tasmania. Artificial substrates were also deployed to investigate colony dynamics when density dependent effects were reduced. Clear spatial and temporal differences in the population dynamics of the colonies were observed. Density dependent effects controlled budding and recruitment of new scyphistomae to the substrate when populations were dense and space limiting. In contrast, environmental controls of budding and strobilation were more apparent in a colony with significantly greater area of bare substrate and hence room for expansion. Water temperature and rainfall (as a proxy for salinity) were linked to changes in population size. Annual and seasonal differences in population dynamics were not observed in a colony limited by space but were apparent in a colony where space was not limited. When space was removed as a limiting factor by deploying artificial substrates, a seasonal environmental effect on the rate of growth of the colony was observed. These studies suggest that the growth, survival and reproduction of the sessile colonial phase of Aurelia sp. is regulated by a combination of density dependent factors and environmental conditions, which are consequently important to the formation of jellyfish blooms.     

Population Consequences of Environmental Sex Reversal

Abstract:  When sex determination in a species is predominantly genetic but environmentally reversible, exposure to (anthropogenic) changes in the environment can lead to shifts in a population's sex ratio. Such scenarios may be common in many fishes and amphibians, yet their ramifications remain largely unexplored. We used a simple model to study the (short-term) population consequences of environmental sex reversal (ESR). We examined the effects on sex ratios, sex chromosome frequencies, and population growth and persistence after exposure to environmental forces with feminizing or masculinizing tendencies. When environmental feminization was strong, X chromosomes were driven to extinction. Analogously, extinction of normally male-linked genetic factors (e.g., Y chromosomes) was caused by continuous environmental masculinization. Although moderate feminization was beneficial for population growth in the absence of large viability effects, our results suggest that the consequences of ESR are generally negative in terms of population size and the persistence of sex chromosomes. Extreme sex ratios resulting from high rates of ESR also reduced effective population sizes considerably. This may limit any evolutionary response to the deleterious effects of ESR. Our findings suggest that ESR changes population growth and sex ratios in some counter-intuitive ways and can change the predominant factor in sex determination from genetic to fully environmental, often within only a few tens of generations. Populations that lose genetic sex determination may quickly go extinct if the environmental forces that cause sex reversal cease.     

Sand and wave induced mortality in invasive (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Mytilus galloprovincialis</Emphasis>) and indigenous (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Perna perna</Emphasis>) mussels

The ability of an invasive species to spread in a new locality depends on its interaction with the indigenous community and on variation in time and space in the environment. The Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis invaded the South African coast 30 years ago and it now competes and coexists with the indigenous mussel Perna perna. The two species show different tolerances to wave and sand stress, two of the main environmental factors affecting this intertidal community. P. perna is more resistant to hydrodynamic stress than M. galloprovincialis, while the invasive species is less vulnerable to sand action. Our results show that mortality rates of the two species over a period of 6 months had different timing. The indigenous species had higher mortality than M. galloprovincialis during periods of high sand accumulation in mussel beds, while the pattern reversed during winter, when wave action was high. A negative correlation between sand accumulation and attachment strength of the two mussels showed that sand not only affects mussel mortality through scouring and burial, but also weakens their attachment strength, subjecting them to a higher risk of dislodgement. Here we underline the importance of variations in time and space of environmental stress in regulating the interaction between invasive and indigenous species, and how these variations can create new competitive balances.     

Modeling the Effects of Trophy Selection and Environmental Disturbance on a Simulated Population of African Lions

Abstract:  Tanzania is a premier destination for trophy hunting of African lions (Panthera leo) and is home to the most extensive long-term study of unhunted lions. Thus, it provides a unique opportunity to apply data from a long-term field study to a conservation dilemma: How can a trophy-hunted species whose reproductive success is closely tied to social stability be harvested sustainably? We used an individually based, spatially explicit, stochastic model, parameterized with nearly 40 years of behavioral and demographic data on lions in the Serengeti, to examine the separate effects of trophy selection and environmental disturbance on the viability of a simulated lion population in response to annual harvesting. Female population size was sensitive to the harvesting of young males (≥3 years), whereas hunting represented a relatively trivial threat to population viability when the harvest was restricted to mature males (≥6 years). Overall model performance was robust to environmental disturbance and to errors in age assessment based on nose coloration as an index used to age potential trophies. Introducing an environmental disturbance did not eliminate the capacity to maintain a viable breeding population when harvesting only older males, and initially depleted populations recovered within 15–25 years after the disturbance to levels comparable to hunted populations that did not experience a catastrophic event. These results are consistent with empirical observations of lion resilience to environmental stochasticity .