A Knowledge-Based Systems Approach to Design of Spatial Decision Support Systems for Environmental Management

/ This paper describes a framework for designing spatial decision support systems for environmental management using a knowledge-based systems approach. An architecture for knowledge-based spatial decision supportsystems (KBSDSS) is presented that integrates knowledge-based systems with geographical information systems (GIS) and other problem-solving techniques. A method based on spatial influence diagrams is developed for representation of environmental problems. The spatial influence diagram provides an interface through which knowledge-based systems techniques can be applied to build capabilities for problem formulation, automated design, and execution of a solution process. In addition to the flexibility and developmental advantages of knowledge-based systems, the KBSDSS incorporates expert knowledge to provide assistance for structuring spatial influence diagrams and executing a solution process that automatically integrates the GIS, data base, knowledge base, and different types of models. The framework is illustrated with a system, known as the Islay Land Use Decision Support System (ILUDSS), designed to assist planners in strategic planning of land use for the development of the island of Islay, off the west coast of Scotland.KEY WORDS: Geographical information systems; Spatial decision support systems; Knowledge-based systems; Spatial influence diagrams; Environmental management     

Land Resource Sustainability for Urban Development: Spatial Decision Support System Prototype

Land resource sustainability for urban development characterizes the problem of decision-making with multiplicity and uncertainty. A decision support system prototype aids in the assessment of incremental land development plan proposals put forth within the long-term community priority of a sustainable growth. Facilitating this assessment is the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multicriteria evaluation and decision support system. The decision support system incorporates multiple sustainability criteria, weighted strategically responsive to local public policy priorities and community–specific situations and values, while gauging and directing desirable future courses of development. Furthermore, the decision support system uses a GIS, which facilitates an assessment of urban form with multiple indicators of sustainability as spatial criteria thematically. The resultant land-use sustainability scores indicate, on the ratio-scale of AHP, whether or not a desirable urban form is likely in the long run, and if so, to what degree. The two alternative modes of synthesis in AHP—ideal and distributive—provide assessments of a land development plan incrementally (short-term) and city-wide pattern comprehensively (long-term), respectively. Thus, the spatial decision support system facilitates proactive and collective public policy determination of land resource for future sustainable urban development.     

Multicriteria Group Decision-making Model for Environmental Conflict Analysis in the Cape Region,Mexico

This paper is concerned with developing a model for group decision making under multiple criteria. The multiple criteria group decision making (MCGDM)problem involves a set of feasible land use patterns that are evaluated on the basis of multiple, conflicting and noncommensurate criteria by a group of individuals. The model integrates the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and an integer mathematical programming method. The former provides a tool for structuring the decision problem and determining land suitability for different socio-economicactivities (the uses of land), the latter is used to identify the land use pattern that maximizes consensus among interest groups. The model is used to analyze environmental conflict over land resource allocation in the Cape Region of Mexico.     

Applying voting theory in natural resource management: a case of multiple-criteria group decision support

Voting theory has a lot in common with utility theory, and especially with group decision-making. An expected-utility-maximising strategy exists in voting situations, as well as in decision-making situations. Therefore, it is natural to utilise the achievements of voting theory also in group decision-making. Most voting systems are based on a single criterion or holistic preference information on decision alternatives. However, a voting scheme called multicriteria approval is specially developed for decision-making situations with multiple criteria. This study considers the voting theory from the group decision support point of view and compares it with some other methods applied to similar purposes in natural resource management. A case study is presented, where the approval voting approach is introduced to natural resources planning and tested in a forestry group decision-making process. Applying multicriteria approval method was found to be a potential approach for handling some challenges typical for forestry group decision support. These challenges include (i) utilising ordinal information in the evaluation of decision alternatives, (ii) being readily understandable for and treating equally all the stakeholders in possession of different levels of knowledge on the subject considered, (iii) fast and cheap acquisition of preference information from several stakeholders, and (iv) dealing with multiple criteria.     

Science in the public process of ecosystem management: lessons from Hawaii, Southeast Asia, Africa and the US Mainland

Partnerships and co-operative environmental management are increasing worldwide as is the call for scientific input in the public process of ecosystem management. In Hawaii, private landowners, non-governmental organizations, and state and federal agencies have formed watershed partnerships to conserve and better manage upland forested watersheds. In this paper, findings of an international workshop convened in Hawaii to explore the strengths of approaches used to assess stakeholder values of environmental resources and foster consensus in the public process of ecosystem management are presented. Authors draw upon field experience in projects throughout Hawaii, Southeast Asia, Africa and the US mainland to derive a set of lessons learned that can be applied to Hawaiian and other watershed partnerships in an effort to promote consensus and sustainable ecosystem management. Interdisciplinary science-based models can serve as effective tools to identify areas of potential consensus in the process of ecosystem management. Effective integration of scientific input in co-operative ecosystem management depends on the role of science, the stakeholders and decision-makers involved, and the common language utilized to compare tradeoffs. Trust is essential to consensus building and the integration of scientific input must be transparent and inclusive of public feedback. Consideration of all relevant stakeholders and the actual benefits and costs of management activities to each stakeholder is essential. Perceptions and intuitive responses of people can be as influential as analytical processes in decision-making and must be addressed. Deliberative, dynamic and iterative decision-making processes all influence the level of stakeholder achievement of consensus. In Hawaii, application of lessons learned can promote more informed and democratic decision processes, quality scientific analysis that is relevant, and legitimacy and public acceptance of ecosystem management.     

The Decision Analysis Interview Approach in the Collaborative Management of a Large Regulated Water Course

There are always conflicting goals in the management of large water courses. However, by involving stakeholders actively in the planning and decision-making processes, it is possible to work together toward commonly acceptable solutions. In this article, we describe how we applied interactive multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in a collaborative process which aimed at an ecologically, socially, and economically sustainable water course regulation policy. The stakeholders' opinions about the alternative regulation schemes and the relative importance of their impacts were elicited with the HIPRE software. Altogether, 20 personal interactive decision analysis interviews (DAIs) were carried out with the stakeholders. Our experience suggests that the DAIs can considerably improve the quality and efficiency of the collaborative planning process. By improving communication and understanding of the decision situation in the steering group, the approach helped to develop a consensus solution in a case having strong conflicts of interest. In order to gain the full benefits of the MCDA approach, interactive preference elicitation is vital. It is also essential to integrate the approach tightly into the planning and decision-making process. The project's home pages are available to the public at http://www.paijanne.hut.fi/.     

Developing decision support systems for integrated coastal management in the tropics: is the ICM decision-making environment too complex for the development of a useable and useful DSS?

Integrated coastal management in the tropics requires the conservation of vulnerable and diverse ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves as well as the management of land and marine-based human activities. Decision-making for integrated coastal management involves multiple decision-makers and multiple stakeholders often with conflicting needs and interests. Decision support systems can be developed to improve our understanding of the inter-relationships between the natural and socio-economic variables and hence result in improved decision-making. The question is whether this decision making environment is actually too complex for the development of useful and useable decision support systems. This paper describes the components of the decision making environment and the components of a decision support system. It also explores the various techniques available to deal with different modelling needs, the constraints of inadequate data and the multi-objective decision making environment. In addition, different techniques of developing decision support systems can play important roles within integrated coastal management. Three coastal decision support systems are evaluated in terms of their design and role in integrated coastal management and are used to evaluate the potential to develop decision support systems for integrated coastal management.     

Initial decision analysis (IDA): a participatory approach for developing resource policies

Initial decision analysis (IDA) is a microcomputer based decision-making technique that is organized so that a rational, step-by-step, procedure can be followed to use existing knowledge to develop resource policies. The IDA process provides a systematic way for participants to define their own problem and to explore jointly alternative solutions. IDA is particularly suited to resolving complex problems involving many groups with conflicting interests. IDA is illustrated with data from the US Forest Service's Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the 1985 to 2030 Resource Planning Act Program for the United States. Four policy options are evaluated: maximization of timber production, of grazing, and of wilderness, and a dominant use policy that concentrates timber management on productive sites. Policies were evaluated using a new mathematical satisficing procedure. Mathematical satisficing of simulated policy consequences showed that, for selected performance standards, current RPA policies are superior to the four alternative policies examined.     

SUBJECTIVE DECISION-MAKING FOR URBAN WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT1

ABSTRACT: Bayesian decision theory provides a procedure for the use of subjective data in a decision-making situation related to urban water resources development. This procedure is effectual in pursuing a set of goals and in transforming individual or group indecisiveness into satisfactory decisions. This approach is highlighted due to its capability to incorporate seemingly unquantifiable, abstract factors into the decision-making process. It is realized that the soliciting of expert and general public opinion is indispensable in making choices for the welfare of the general public from alternative courses of action under uncertainty. The analysis presented here considers engineering alternatives, quality, quantity, cost and the intangible public response in an integrated effort for the selection of optimum strategies in urban water resources development.     

Environmental economic,political and ethical integration in a common decision-making framework

This article develops a decision-making framework for environmental management that integrates technical, economic, political and legal, and ethical decision levels. It attempts to show how these decision levels can be ordained, integrated and interconnected and postulates a hierarchic concentric sphere system that proposes an environmental management model for long-term solutions. This model can be used as a check list for environmental management decision-making and also as a guide for environmental conflict resolution where environmental problems necessitate several levels of decision making. It integrates various environmental ethical positions and evaluates political decisions into a comprehensive, broadly applicable multidisciplinary approach. The objective of this decision-making model is to interconnect into a simplified sequence different levels of environmental management processes in order to account for sustainability, efficacy, efficiency and the acceptability of environmental management processes in the long term. This is done by observing when an environmental problem needs to be solved within a certain sphere of solutions and when it requires wider frameworks, how these can be established and how this process proves that solidarity is the widest and most reasonable sphere.     

Integrating local and technical knowledge to support soil salinity monitoring in the Amudarya river basin

The role of monitoring is changing due to the increasing awareness of complexity and uncertainty in environmental resources management. Monitoring systems are required to support critical reflection about the effectiveness of actions toward the achievement of management objectives. To this aim, monitoring should be based on a strong integrated and multi-scale approach. Monitoring costs could be prohibitive if the monitoring is only based on traditional scientific methods of measurements. To deal with these issues, the design of an innovative monitoring system should be based on the integration between different sources of knowledge and information. In this work the usability of local knowledge to support environmental monitoring is investigated. A multi-step participatory monitoring design process has been implemented aiming to design a program for soil salinity monitoring in the lower Amudarya river basin in Uzbekistan. Although there is an increasing awareness of the importance of stakeholders being involved in decision processes, the current socio-cultural and institutional context is not favourable to the participatory approach. The choice of method to be implemented in this work was influenced by such conditions. The analysis of the lessons learned from the experiences gained in this project revealed some important clues concerning the development of a locally-based monitoring program. These lessons can be subdivided according to three fundamental issues: the long term involvement of local community members in monitoring activities, the acceptance of locally-based monitoring systems by decision makers, and the reliability of monitoring information.     

Integrated resource management systems: Coupling expert systems with data-base management and geographic information systems

Decision making in natural resource management is becoming increasingly information-intensive because of the rising public concerns about resource conservation and environmental quality. The volume of information that must be analyzed and the complexity of the decision-making process demands that computerized systems be developed to provide decision support services. An integrated systems approach that couples data-base management, geographic information systems, and expert systems is needed. We refer to such an approach as integrated resource management automation (IRMA) and describe a prototype system that is currently being tested in the Nicolet National Forest. This type of information system is likely to play an increasingly important role in the management of natural resources in the future.     

Squaring the Circle? Combining Models, Indicators, Experts and End-Users in Integrated Land-Use Management Support Tools

The most important challenges faced in the field of integrated land-use management are (i) harmonizing and integrating different datasets, (ii) selecting appropriate indicators, (iii) fitting suitable models to adequate scales, and finally (iv) integrating data, indicators and models into systems that allow both a high level of participation and flexibility with the adaptation to a variety of questions and applications. The articles of this special issue “Squaring the Circle? Combining Models, Indicators, Experts and End-Users in Integrated Land-Use Management Support Tools” demonstrate the challenges that are related to this topic. The case studies present examples of such integrated systems in order to recommend best practices to support land-use management and to reveal existing shortcomings. As a conclusion, seven features of a successful applicable integrated land-use management support system are derived: (1) ability to deal with discontinuity in information and datasets, (2) contribution to solve the problem of indicator diversity, (3) structuring the decision-making process, (4) support of participation processes in generating decisions, (5) development, comparison and evaluation of land-use alternatives, (6) assessment of the efficiency and trade-offs of management options, and (7) assistance of stakeholders in group communication processes.     

Beyond geomorphosites: trade-offs, optimization, and networking in heritage landscapes

This study uses Danxiashan, a world heritage site in Guangdong province, China, as a case study for planning a hypothetical geotourism network of heritage sites. This landscape has a multiplicity of values—its geoheritage cannot be separated from its ecological or cultural heritage. When designing a network of heritage sites for such a diversely valued landscape trade-offs must be made between differing and potentially conflicting objectives such as geotourism and geoconservation. To solve this multi-criteria decision problem, sites with potential value for people were designated as heritage sites, adapting the concept of geomorphosites—i.e., geomorphological heritage sites—to represent the intersection of anthropic values. In a GIS-based spatial decision support system heritage values for each site were weighted and ranked using the analytic hierarchy process and scenarios for alternative trail systems, and networks of tourism sites were generated by multi-criteria map overlay analysis and networking algorithms. The scenarios generated show how trade-offs can be made between oft-conflicting tourism and conservation objectives, how the design of parks can be optimized for multiple objectives, and how alternative design strategies can be explored. Such an approach could be used in scenario planning workshops to engage stakeholders in participatory design and consensus-based decision-making driven by geospatial science.     

Degradation Model: A Quantitative EIA Instrument,Acting as a Decision Support System (DSS) for Environmental Management

Environmental assessment of alternative development plans, programs, and policies may bring conflict among decision-makers, particularly when some quantitative measures for decision-making are needed and where cumulative impacts are neglected. Environmental impact assessment (EIA) and environmental economics theories, despite their usefulness, are not capable of addressing those issues and problems alone. In recent years, the decision support system (DSS) has provided some solutions, but mathematical analysis of the system to show the internal structure of the problem is not always possible. To addres the above shortcomings and ongoing problems of decision-making in Iran, a degradation model (DM) was introduced as an instrument of EIA, to act as a DSS for managers. The model is a compromise between knowledge-based decision support systems, detailed models, digested information models, and the basic theorem of environmental economics. In the present study (1996–2000), the model was applied in three provinces of Iran, representing three of four biogeographical regions of Iran. The study area was divided into a set of grids (100 km²). The degradation coefficient (H) was computed for all grids (1333), representing the degree of degradation in the grid. It is obvious that the higher the coefficient the more area is degraded and less prone to further development, and vice versa. In order to provide decision-makers with a set of quantitative measures to observe impacted areas (critical and noncritical) for resource allocation and further development, the degradation coefficients of all grids were classified into categories and criteria, using a fuzzy set theoretic approach. Accordingly, only 24% of study areas are prone to further development. The degradation model as a knowledge-based decision support system has its strengths and weaknesses, but it has solved managers' ongoing problems in Iran and it could be used elsewhere.     

Risk-based evaluation of wastewater treatment projects: A case study in Niasar city,Iran

For sustainable wastewater management, it is essential to consider social, environmental, geological and technical features as well as economic feature in the decision-making process. A limitation of many of the earlier works on wastewater management is that they take into account only financial criteria to make a decision for a given problem. Moreover, the decision-makers’ (DMs) attitude to risk, or optimism degree, when faced with uncertainty is not considered. In this paper, we study the application of risk-based multi-attribute decision-making (RB-MADM) methods to achieve sustainable wastewater management. Consideration of uncertainty, value tradeoffs, and different risk attitudes of decision makers are the important features of the developed methodology. A case study on the Iranian city of Niasar is presented to illustrate how this methodology can be applied to select the most preferred alternative for wastewater management among a set of options. The most preferred option is selected with respect to nine attributes under different optimism/pessimism degrees, using six different MADM methods. The results show that the ranking of options is sensitive to the optimism degree of the DMs. The proposed approach may help policy makers to achieve sustainable wastewater management.     

A PROCESS FOR FEDERAL WATER PLANNING AT THE FIELD LEVEL1

ABSTRACT: A process for planning at the field offices of Federal water resources agencies is described. The process involve s both planners and publics in the following four planning activities: problem definition, formulation of alternatives, impact analysis and evaluation (or plan ranking). Evaluative factors are defied as the goals, concerns, constraints, etc. that affected publics and other decision makers consider in ranking alternative actions. These factors serve to drive the entire process and glue the four planning activities together. In contrast to other “models” of the planning process, the four activities are considered to be carried out simultaneously and continually from the beginning of the process. As the planning process proceeds, each activity is repeated a number of times at increasing levels of detail. Various aspects of the process are illustrated by means of an example involving water resources development in Carmel Valley, California.     

An Analytic Network Process approach for siting a municipal solid waste plant in the Metropolitan Area of Valencia (Spain)

In this paper the Analytic Network Process (ANP) is applied to select the best location for the construction of a municipal solid waste (MSW) plant in the Metropolitan area of Valencia (Spain). Selection of the appropriate MSW facility location can be viewed as a complex multicriteria decision-making problem that requires an extensive evaluation process of the potential MSW plant locations and other factors as diverse as economic, technical, legal, social or environmental issues. The decision-making process includes the identification of six candidate MSW plant sites and 21 criteria grouped into clusters for the construction of a network. Two technicians of the Metropolitan Waste Disposal Agency acted as decision makers (DMs).The influences between the elements of the network were identified and analyzed using the ANP multicriteria decision method. Two different ANP models were used: one hierarchy model (that considers AHP as a particular case of ANP) and another network-based model. The results obtained in each model were compared and analyzed. The strengths and weaknesses of ANP as a multicriteria decision analysis tool are also described in the paper. The main findings of this research have proved that ANP is a useful tool to help technicians to make their decision process traceable and reliable. Moreover, this approach helps DMs undertake a sound reflection of the siting problem.     

Bringing diverse knowledge sources together--a meta-model for supporting integrated catchment management

Integrated catchment management (ICM), as promoted by recent legislation such as the European Water Framework Directive, presents difficult challenges to planners and decision-makers. To support decision-making in the face of high complexity and uncertainty, tools are required that can integrate the evidence base required to evaluate alternative management scenarios and promote communication and social learning. In this paper we present a pragmatic approach for developing an integrated decision-support tool, where the available sources of information are very diverse and a tight model coupling is not possible. In the first instance, a loosely coupled model is developed which includes numerical sub-models and knowledge-based sub-models. However, such a model is not easy for decision-makers and stakeholders to operate without modelling skills. Therefore, we derive from it a meta-model based on a Bayesian Network approach which is a decision-support tool tailored to the needs of the decision-makers and is fast and easy to operate. The meta-model can be derived at different levels of detail and complexity according to the requirements of the decision-makers. In our case, the meta-model was designed for high-level decision-makers to explore conflicts and synergies between management actions at the catchment scale. As prediction uncertainties are propagated and explicitly represented in the model outcomes, important knowledge gaps can be identified and an evidence base for robust decision-making is provided. The framework seeks to promote the development of modelling tools that can support ICM both by providing an integrated scientific evidence base and by facilitating communication and learning processes.