A new procedure to optimize the selection of groups in a classification tree: Applications for ecological data

Agglomerative cluster analyses encompass many techniques, which have been widely used in various fields of science. In biology, and specifically ecology, datasets are generally highly variable and may contain outliers, which increase the difficulty to identify the number of clusters. Here we present a new criterion to determine statistically the optimal level of partition in a classification tree. The criterion robustness is tested against perturbated data (outliers) using an observation or variable with values randomly generated. The technique, called Random Simulation Test (RST), is tested on (1) the well-known Iris dataset [Fisher, R.A., 1936. The use of multiple measurements in taxonomic problems. Ann. Eugenic. 7, 179–188], (2) simulated data with predetermined numbers of clusters following Milligan and Cooper [Milligan, G.W., Cooper, M.C., 1985. An examination of procedures for determining the number of clusters in a data set. Psychometrika 50, 159–179] and finally (3) is applied on real copepod communities data previously analyzed in Beaugrand et al. [Beaugrand, G., Ibanez, F., Lindley, J.A., Reid, P.C., 2002. Diversity of calanoid copepods in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas: species associations and biogeography. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 232, 179–195]. The technique is compared to several standard techniques. RST performed generally better than existing algorithms on simulated data and proved to be especially efficient with highly variable datasets.     

Effects of sample survey design on the accuracy of classification tree models in species distribution models

We evaluated the effects of probabilistic (hereafter DESIGN) and non-probabilistic (PURPOSIVE) sample surveys on resultant classification tree models for predicting the presence of four lichen species in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models derived from both survey forms were assessed using an independent data set (EVALUATION). Measures of accuracy as gauged by resubstitution rates were similar for each lichen species irrespective of the underlying sample survey form. Cross-validation estimates of prediction accuracies were lower than resubstitution accuracies for all species and both design types, and in all cases were closer to the true prediction accuracies based on the EVALUATION data set. We argue that greater emphasis should be placed on calculating and reporting cross-validation accuracy rates rather than simple resubstitution accuracy rates. Evaluation of the DESIGN and PURPOSIVE tree models on the EVALUATION data set shows significantly lower prediction accuracy for the PURPOSIVE tree models relative to the DESIGN models, indicating that non-probabilistic sample surveys may generate models with limited predictive capability. These differences were consistent across all four lichen species, with 11 of the 12 possible species and sample survey type comparisons having significantly lower accuracy rates. Some differences in accuracy were as large as 50%. The classification tree structures also differed considerably both among and within the modelled species, depending on the sample survey form. Overlap in the predictor variables selected by the DESIGN and PURPOSIVE tree models ranged from only 20% to 38%, indicating the classification trees fit the two evaluated survey forms on different sets of predictor variables. The magnitude of these differences in predictor variables throws doubt on ecological interpretation derived from prediction models based on non-probabilistic sample surveys.     

The number of males in primate social groups: a comparative test of the socioecological model

As applied to polygynous mammals, the socioecological model assumes that environmental risks and resources determine the spatial and temporal distribution of females, which then sets male strategies for monopolizing fertile matings. The effects of female spatial distribution (i.e., female number) and temporal overlap (female mating synchrony) have been examined in comparative studies of primates, but the relative influence of these two factors on male monopolization potential (the number of males) remains unclear. One particular problem is that female synchrony is more difficult to estimate than female number. This paper uses multivariate statistical methods and three independent estimates of female synchrony to assess the roles of spatial and temporal effects in the context of a phylogenetically corrected dataset. These analyses are based on sensitivity analyses involving a total of four phylogenies, with two sets of branch length estimates for each tree, and one nonphylogenetic analysis in which species values are used (because male behavior may represent a facultative response to the distribution of females). The results show: (1) that breeding seasonality predicts male number (statistically significant in six out of nine sensitivity tests); (2) that expected female overlap, after controlling for female group size using residuals, also accounts for the number of males in primate groups (significant in eight out of nine tests), and (3) that actual estimates of female mating synchrony predict male number, again after correcting for female group size (significant in five out of nine tests). Nonsignificant results are in the predicted direction, and female group size is significant in all statistical tests. These analyses therefore demonstrate an independent influence of female temporal overlap on male monopolization strategies in mammalian social systems. Received: 24 July 1998 / Received in revised form: 5 February 1999 / Accepted: 7 February 1999     

Modelling the response of tree growth to temperature and CO2 elevation as related to the fertility and current temperature sum of a site

A methodology for simulating climate change impacts on tree growth was introduced into a statistical growth and yield model in relation to variations in site fertility and location implemented with current temperature sum. This was based on a procedure in which the relative enhancement in stem volume growth was calculated from short-term runs of a physiological simulation model for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and silver birch (Betula pendula Roth.) stands. These simulations were made for a set of stands with species-specific variations in stand characteristics, location and fertility type first in current climatic conditions and then in different combinations of CO₂ and temperature elevations. Based on these simulations, the relative enhancement of volume growth induced by the climate change (relative scenario effect, RSEv) was calculated and modelled in relation to: (i) CO₂ and temperature elevation, stand density and the competition status of the tree in its stand, and (ii) variations in site fertility type and current temperature sum of a stand. Finally, these transfer functions for RSEv were applied to adapt the stem volume growth in the statistical growth and yield model to reflect the response to climate change.     

Using classification trees to analyze the impact of exotic species on the ecological assessment of polder lakes in Flanders, Belgium

Polder lakes in Flanders are stagnant waters that were flooded by the sea in the past. Several of these systems are colonized by exotic species, but have hardly been studied until present. The aim of the present study was: (1) to assess the influence of exotic macrobenthic species on the outcome of the Multimetric Macroinvertebrate Index Flanders (MMIF) and (2) to use classification trees for evaluating to what extent physical-chemical characteristics affect the presence of exotic species.In total, 27 mollusc and 10 macro-crustacean species were present in the monitored lakes of which respectively five and four were exotic. The exclusion of the exotic species from the MMIF resulted in a significant decline of this ecological index (−0.03 ± 0.04; p = 0.00). This elimination often resulted into a lower ecological water quality class and more samples were classified into the bad and poor ecological water quality classes.Single-target classification trees for Gammarus tigrinus and Potamopyrgus antipodarum were constructed, relating environmental parameters and ecological status (MMIF) to the occurrence of both exotic invasive species. The major advantages of using single-target classification trees are the transparency of the rule sets and the possibility to use relatively small datasets. However, this classification technique only predicts a single-target attribute and the trees of the different species are often hard to integrate and use for water managers. As a solution, a multi-target approach was used in the present study. Exotic molluscs and crustaceans communities were modelled based on environmental parameters and the ecological status (MMIF) using multi-target classification trees. Multi-target classification trees can be used in management planning and investment decisions as they can lead to integrated decisions for the whole set of exotic species and avoid the construction of many models for each individual species. These trees provide general insights concerning the occurrence patterns of individual crustaceans and molluscs in an integrated way.     

Combining a generic process-based productivity model and a statistical classification method to predict the presence and absence of tree species in the Pacific Northwest,U.S.A.

Although long-lived tree species experience considerable environmental variation over their life spans, their geographical distributions reflect sensitivity mainly to mean monthly climatic conditions. We introduce an approach that incorporates a physiologically based growth model to illustrate how a half-dozen tree species differ in their responses to monthly variation in four climatic-related variables: water availability, deviations from an optimum temperature, atmospheric humidity deficits, and the frequency of frost. Rather than use climatic data directly to correlate with a species’ distribution, we assess the relative constraints of each of the four variables as they affect predicted monthly photosynthesis for Douglas-fir, the most widely distributed species in the region. We apply an automated regression-tree analysis to create a suite of rules, which differentially rank the relative importance of the four climatic modifiers for each species, and provide a basis for predicting a species’ presence or absence on 3737 uniformly distributed U.S. Forest Services’ Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field survey plots. Results of this generalized rule-based approach were encouraging, with weighted accuracy, which combines the correct prediction of both presence and absence on FIA survey plots, averaging 87%. A wider sampling of climatic conditions throughout the full range of a species’ distribution should improve the basis for creating rules and the possibility of predicting future shifts in the geographic distribution of species.     

我国城市污水厂延伸污泥处理与处置责任

探讨延伸城市污水处理厂的职能,使污泥的"生产者"承担起污泥处理和处置的环境责任,激励其全面关注进水有机物的最终无害化,将污泥处理以及最终处置(如土地填埋、焚烧或资源化等)的工程造价、运行费用以及相应的环境影响均纳入城市污水处理厂进行考虑,这样将对城市污水厂的环境管理观念带来革命性的变化。     

Predation risk and the number of adult males in a primate group: a comparative test

The number of adult males in a bisexual primate group is thought to be determined mainly by the defensibility of mating access to the females. However, among primates, small groups sometimes contain several adult male. We evaluate the hypothesis that high predation risk may lead to greater male representation in primate groups, independent of the effect of group size. Male primates are known to be more vigilant than females, and may also be better at detecting potential predators. A comparative test was done using arboreal folivores in three continents, howler monkeys in the Neotropics, colobus monkeys in Africa and langurs in South and Southeast Asia. Howlers and colobus are exposed to predation by large monkey-eating eagles, whereas the langurs are not. We conducted regression analyses on group composition data of single populations and on mean group compositions among populations, and found that the arboreal langurs basically live in groups with only a single adult males whereas groups of howler and colobus monkeys of comparable size have multiple adult males (Fig. 3). Thus, the hypothesis was supported. Several alternative hypotheses do not account for this pattern.     

温带阔叶红松林中不同树种和倒木对土壤性质的影响

以长白山温带阔叶红松林为研究对象,通过野外采集土壤样品,综合研究老龄树及倒木对周边表层土壤性质的影响。研究结果显示,在本研究样地条件下,不同树种周边的表层土壤性质存在显著性差异,红松（Pinus koraiensis）周边土壤中水溶性有机碳WSOC的质量分数和特征吸光系数SUVA254值都高于紫椴（乃砌amurensis）和水曲柳（Fraxinus mandshurica）,但是土壤水溶性总氮WSTN和交换性无机氮的质量分数却是红松低于紫椴和水曲柳。对倒木影响的森林表层土壤性质的研究结果显示,倒木下方森林表层土壤中WSOC、WSTN以及交换性矿质氮的质量分数都明显地高于林间土壤,说明在小尺度空间区域内,倒木可能是森林表层土壤活性碳、氮库的重要输入源。此外,本研究还利用主成分分析探讨了受树种影响的森林表层土壤不同性质之间的关联性,并对树种和倒木影响周边土壤性质的可能性机制进行分析。     

Experimental analysis of Froude number effect on air entrainment in the hydraulic jump

A hydraulic jump is characterized by strong energy dissipation and mixing, large-scale turbulence, air entrainment, waves, and spray. Despite recent pertinent studies, the interaction between air bubbles diffusion and momentum transfer is not completely understood. The objective of this paper is to present experimental results from new measurements performed in a rectangular horizontal flume with partially developed inflow conditions. The vertical distributions of the void fraction and the air bubbles count rate were recorded for inflow Froude number Fr ₁ in the range from 5.2 to 14.3. Rapid detrainment process was observed near the jump toe, whereas the structure of the air diffusion layer was clearly observed over longer distances. These new data were compared with previous data generally collected at lower Froude numbers. The comparison demonstrated that, at a fixed distance from the jump toe, the maximum void fraction C _max increases with the increasing Fr ₁. The vertical locations of the maximum void fraction and bubble count rate were consistent with previous studies. Finally, an empirical correlation between the upper boundary of the air diffusion layer and the distance from the impingement point was derived.     

林地的水分动态及其对树木生长的影响——以香桂（Cinnamomum subavenium）人工林为例

土地利用变化引起的水分条件变化反过来又会影响植被的生长,然而,森林-水分-植物生长之间相互作用关系的研究还很少。以香桂（Cinnamomum subavenium）人工林为例,在盐亭生态试验站开展观测,研究了无枯落物林地（FB）、有枯落物林地（FL）和裸地（BL）的水分动态（土壤水分、径流组成和径流量）,比较了FB和FL样地树木高、基径、叶面积、比叶面积（SLA）、地上和地下生物量。研究结果表明：①FL样地的土壤含水量最高,其次是FB样地,而BL样地的土壤含水量最低;②地上径流展现了与土壤水分相反的趋势（FLFB〉BL）,3个样地的总径流量则没有表现出一个明确的大小关系。在观测期间,BL、FB和FL的地表径流量分别为284.68、222.93和68.98cm,地下径流分别为57.83、134.00和289.52 cm,总径流量依次为343.16、356.93和358.35 cm;③在观测早期,FL样地和FB样地植物形态学特征、SLA以及地上和地下生物量均没有显著差异（p〉0.05）。在观测期末,虽然两个样地的基径和SLA无显著差异,然而其他指标差异极显著（p〈0.005）。在观测末期,除SLA外,FL样地植物的高、基径、叶面积、地上生物量和地下生物量分别高于FB样地,表明该样地植物生长条件更好。这些结果表明森林改善了自身的水分环境,而水分环境的改善又反过来促进了森林的生长,森林植被-水分条件的这种相互促进作用是森林系统生存策略的一种表现。     

Modelling the abundance of three key plant species in New Zealand hill-pasture using a decision tree approach

Decision tree models were developed to investigate and predict the relative abundance of three key pasture plants [ryegrass (Lolium perenne), browntop (Agrostis capillaris), and white clover (Trifolium repens)] with integration of a geographical information system (GIS) in a naturalised hill-pasture in the North Island, New Zealand, and were compared with regression models with respect to model fit and predictive accuracy. The results indicated that the decision tree models had a better model fit in terms of average squared error (ASE) and a higher percentage of adequately predicted cases in model validation than the corresponding regression models. These decision tree models clearly revealed the relative importance of environmental and management variables in influencing the abundance of these three species. Hill slope was the most significant environmental factor influencing the abundance of ryegrass while soil Olsen P and annual P fertilizer input were the most significant factors influencing the abundance of browntop, and white clover, respectively. Soil Olsen P of approximately 10 μg/g, or a slope of about 10.5° was critical points where the competition between ryegrass and browntop tended to come to an equilibrium. Integrating the decision tree models with a GIS in this study not only facilitated the model development and analyses, but also provided a useful decision support tool in pasture management such as in assisting precision fertilizer placement. The insights obtained from the decision tree models also have important implications for pasture management, for example, it is important to maintain a soil Olsen P higher than 10 μg/g in order to keep the dominance of ryegrass in the hill-pasture.     

基于开发需求的安徽沿江地区生态经济分区

从压力、状态和人类响应3个方面,构建了生态经济分区指标体系,结合经济开发需求的评价结果,以县(市、城区)为基本评价单元,利用主成分分析与系统聚类的方法,根据自上而下的专家定性评估,遵循空间邻近性原则,将安徽沿江地区划分为7个生态经济类型,即:合肥污染防治与城镇生态优化区、巢滁湖泊湿地保护与平原生态农业区、马芜铜宣工业污染防治与城镇生态优化区、宣南生态农业与水土保持区、安庆平原农业与湿地生态保护区、池州森林保育与生态农业区以及皖西水源保护与森林保育区.     

北京西山地区不同林分健康状况比较研究

以不同树种林分健康状况比较研究为切入点,以北京西山地区同一时期的油松×侧柏混交林、油松（Pinus tabulaeformis）林、侧柏（Platycladus orientalis）林和栓皮栎（Quercus variabis）林为研究对象。通过构建林分健康评价指标体系,计算林分综合健康指数,分别对不同林分的健康状况进行了分析和比较,探讨不同林分开展森林健康经营的关键环节,同时也从森林健康的角度说明造林树种选择的重要性。研究结果表明：各林分综合健康指数都为正值但数值都不高,这表明目前各林分都处于健康状态,但对外界扰动反应较为敏感,按健康状况排序：油松×侧柏林0．234〉栓皮栎林0．186〉油松林0．145〉侧柏林0．128;从单个指标看,各林分中都有负值指标出现,由此揭示,对负值指标的调整和增加正向指标的指标值是森林健康经营的关键。     

古田山国家自然保护区黄山松林主要种群生态位研究

采用样方法进行调查,每个样地面积为20m×20m。测度主要种群的生态位宽度、生态位相似比例、生态位重叠值。结果表明,黄山松、木荷、野漆树、甜槠等有较大的生态位宽度,其Levins生态位宽度(Bi值)和Hurlbert生态位宽度(Ba值)分别为0.7619、0.6517、0.5886、0.5384和0.9175、0.6278、0.5571、0.4377;野鸭椿的生态位宽度最小,其Bi值和Ba值分别为0.3655和0.2343。黄山松、木荷、野漆树、甜槠等生态位宽度较大的树种,生态位相似性比例高;而生态位宽度较小的物种,生态位相似性比例较小。黄山松、木荷、野漆树、甜槠等生态位宽度较大种群之间具有较大的生态位重叠。     

Inter-colonial selection for the maintenance of cooperative breeding in the ant Pristomyrmex pungens: a laboratory experiment

The queenless ant Pristomyrmex pungens has an unusual social structure, in which all workers reproduce parthenogenetically and help others. Laboratory experiments manipulating the proportion of post-reproductive foragers in the colony at various rates suggested that colonies with 5–10% forager ratios had the maximum efficiency per-worker. This result suggests that the cooperative colonies may be maintained by colony-level natural selection. Non-cooperative mutants that oviposit but do not forage should increase in relative frequency in the colony in the short term. However, decreased colony productivity and the resulting competition among colonies might eliminate colonies dominated by such mutants in the long term. P. pungens has a viscous population without migration between colonies, which may facilitate this process.     

科尔沁沙地三种常见乔木根-土界面水分再分配初探

根-土界面水分再分配研究对于干旱、半干旱地区退化植被的恢复与重建具有重要意义,同时也是国际植物生理生态学和生态水文学界十分关注的研究领域之一.为了探明科尔沁沙地优势乔木树种樟子松(Pinus sylvestris var.mongolica)、小叶杨(Populus simonii Carr.)、榆树(Ulmus pumila)是否具有根-土界面水分再分配的现象,我们利用时域反射仪(TDR)每隔2 h连续测定植株根际土壤水分,同时应用干沙瓶分根法对3种乔木根-土界面水分再分配作了测定,结果表明:三种常见乔木树种樟子松、小叶杨、榆树均具有根-土界面水分再分配的潜力;并且榆树的水分再分配能力较樟子松和小叶杨强;三种常见乔木根-土界面水分再分配现象一般发生在14:00之后,而分配水量最大的时间多是出现在次日凌晨4:00左右,即4:00-14:00为植物的蒸腾耗水时段,而14:00至次日4:00为植物的水分再分配时段.     

The role of migration and founder effect for the evolution of cooperation in a multilevel selection context

The idea that natural selection can be meaningfully applied at the group level may be more important than previously thought. This perspective, a modern version of group selection, is called multilevel selection. Multilevel selection theory could incorporate previous explanations for the evolution of cooperation including kin selection. There is general agreement that natural selection favors noncooperators over cooperators in the case of an unstructured population. Therefore, the evolution of cooperation by multilevel selection often requires positive assortment between cooperators and noncooperators. The question is how this positive assortment can arise in the ecological meaning. We constructed an individual-based model of multilevel selection and introduced migration and evolution. The results showed that positive assortment was generated especially when a migration strategy was adopted in which individuals respond specifically to bad environmental conditions. It was also shown that the founder effect in the evolutionary process could further facilitate positive assortment by working with migration. We analyzed assortment by using relatedness defined in group-structured populations. The fact that cooperation was achieved by such migration and by the founder effect highlights the importance of sensitiveness to the ecological environment and of fluctuations in group size, respectively.     

Population density and the intensity of sexual selection on body length in spatially or temporally restricted natural populations of a seed bug

Summary Population density affects the dynamics of mate acquisition and the opportunity for sexual selection in natural populations of the seed bug, Neacoryphus bicrucis Say (Hemiptera : Lygaeidae). The opportunity for sexual selection and the intensity of directional sexual selection on body length increased as the population density declined within a season for a population in a small, disjunct patch of host plant, Senecio anonymus. In a larger, dispersed population, both measures of selection were greater in host plant patches of low rather than high adult density when the population was sampled at peak density. Under conditions of higher density, males were more likely to share plants, larger males were less likely to monopolize patches of host plant to which females were attracted for mating, and smaller males were more likely to mate in the presence of large males. Thus, resource defense polygyny collapsed under high density, obviating the advantage of size in territory control, and resulted in scramble competition among males for mates. The population exhibited significant additive genetic variation for body length. This suggests that natural selection acting on other components of fitness favors smaller size or that the direction of sexual selection on size fluctuates between generations in response to the between-year variation in population density. Thus, strong sexual selection appears to impose a significant genetic load.