海峡两岸碳汇农业研究与交易平台建设的思考与对策——以闽台农业碳汇交易中心规划研究为例

在全球气候变化的大背景下,发展低碳经济已经成为全球性共识;同时作为发展低碳经济前沿领域的碳交易市场也得以迅速发展。本文简要综述了我国农业碳汇交易研究和碳交易市场发展的现状及其存在的问题,分析了在福建建立海峡两岸农业碳汇交易平台的政策机遇和区域优势,提出了构建闽台农业碳汇交易中心的规划设想,并结合规划设想提出了要加强碳汇农业理论与节能减排技术、低碳农业发展规划与综合评估体系、农业碳汇交易机制、监测及其认证体系等农业碳汇研究的方向与建议。     

Projecting population trends of endangered amphibian species in the face of uncertainty: A pattern-oriented approach

Amphibian populations have been declining worldwide for the last three decades. Determining the risk of extinction is one of the major goals of amphibian conservation, yet few quantitative models have been developed for amphibian populations. Like most rare or threatened populations, there is a paucity of life history data available for most amphibian populations. Data on the critical juvenile life stage are particularly lacking. Pattern oriented modeling (POM) has been used successfully to estimate life history parameters indirectly when critical data lacking, but has not been applied to amphibian populations. We describe a spatially explicit, individual-based, stochastic simulation model developed to project population dynamics of pond-breeding amphibian populations. We parameterized the model with life history and habitat data collected for the endangered Houston toad (Bufohoustonensis), a species for which there is a high degree of uncertainty for juvenile and adult male survival. During model evaluation, we focused on explicitly reducing this uncertainty, evaluating 16 different versions of the model that represented the range of parametric uncertainty for juvenile and adult male survival. Following POM protocol, we compared simulation results to four population-level patterns observed in the field: population size, adult sex ratio, proportion of toads returning to their natal pond, and mean maximum distance moved. Based on these comparisons, we rejected 11 of the 16 model versions. Results of the remaining versions confirmed that population persistence depends heavily on juvenile survival, and further suggested that probability of juvenile survival is likely between 0.0075 and 0.015 (previous estimates ranged from 0.003 to 0.02), and that annual male survival is near 0.15 (previous estimates ranged up to 0.43).     

Traditional agriculture in transition: examining the impacts of agricultural modernization on smallholder farming in Ghana under the new Green Revolution

Following the renewed effort at achieving a new green revolution for Africa, emphasis has been placed on modernizing smallholder agriculture through the deployment of improved inputs especially mechanized technologies. In Ghana, the government has in the last decade emphasized the provision of subsidized mechanized ploughing services to farmers alongside a rapidly growing private sector tractor service market. While mechanized technology adoption rates have increased rapidly, the deployment of these technologies has been without critical analysis of the impacts on production patterns and local agrarian systems. This paper examines the distributional impacts of agriculture mechanization on cropping patterns and farm sizes of smallholder farmers in northern Ghana using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques, and semi-structured interviews with smallholder farmers (n=60). Specifically, comparative analysis of the field sizes and cropping patterns of participant farmers prior to and after the adoption of mechanized technologies was conducted. In-depth interviews were used to contextualize the experiences of smallholder farmers toward understanding how mechanization may be impacting traditional agriculture. Our findings reveal a mechanization paradox in which farm sizes are expanding, while cropping patterns are shifting away from traditional staple crops (pearl millet and sorghum bicolor) to market-oriented crops (maize, rice and groundnuts). This transition we argue, has adverse implications on the cultural dimension of food security, the organization of social life, and climate change adaptation. We recommend a retooling of the current agricultural policy focus to ensure context sensitivity for a more robust battle against food insecurity.     

Influence of host migration between woodland and pasture on the population dynamics of the tick Ixodes ricinus: A modelling approach

Ticks act as vectors of pathogens that can be harmful to animals and/or humans. Epidemiological models can be useful tools to investigate the potential effects of control strategies on diseases such as tick-borne diseases. The modelling of tick population dynamics is a prerequisite to simulating tick-borne diseases and the corresponding spread of the pathogen. We have developed a dynamic model to simulate changes in tick density at different stages (egg, larva, nymph and adult) under the influence of temperature. We have focused on the tick Ixodes ricinus, which is widespread in Europe. The main processes governing the biological cycles of ticks were taken into account: egg laying, hatching, development, host (small, mainly rodents, or large, like deer and cattle, mammals) questing, feeding and mortality. This model was first applied to a homogeneous habitat, where simulations showed the ability of the model to reproduce the general patterns of tick population dynamics. We considered thereafter a multi-habitat model, where three different habitats (woodland, ecotone and meadow) were connected through host migration. Based on this second application, it appears that migration from woodland, via the ecotone, is necessary to sustain the presence of ticks in the meadow. Woodland can therefore be considered as a source of ticks for the meadow, which in turn can be regarded as a sink. The influence of woodland on surrounding tick densities increases in line with the area of this habitat before reaching a plateau. A sensitivity analysis to parameter values was carried out and demonstrated that demographic parameters (sex ratio, development, mortality during feeding and questing, host finding) played a crucial role in the determination of questing nymph densities. This type of modelling approach provides insight into the influence of spatial heterogeneity on tick population dynamics.     

入田泥沙对黄河三角洲地区土壤物理性状的影响——以小开河引黄灌区为例

为研究人田泥沙对小开河灌区自然土壤的影响,用分析化验和工程测试等方法,分析了引黄泥沙和输沙人田后土壤颗粒组成、容重、孔隙状况等物理性状。结果表明：引黄泥沙中0．02～0．002mm的细粉粒比例最高,平均39-31％。小开河自然土壤中0．05-0．02mm的粗粉粒比例最高,为53．41％,泥沙中细粉粒和粘粒含量明显高于当地土壤。输沙人田使灌区土壤中0．02—0．002mm的细粉粒和〈0．002mm的粘粒比例明显增加,〉0．02mm的颗粒比例下降,虽有效避免了因渠首集中沉沙造成的土壤沙化和生态环境恶化,但增加了土壤的粘重程度。农田耕作在一定程度上增加土壤通气孔隙比例、降低土壤容重,但土壤毛管孔隙度依旧稳定在40％左右,毛管作用旺盛,使土壤通气状况不能满足作物需求。在黄河三角洲地区输沙入田的泥沙处理,应结合当地土壤的基本性质和水盐运动规律配置泥沙,以免增强当地土壤紧实、通透性差的性状。     

镉胁迫对不同镉富集能力海水养殖贝类抗氧化能力的影响——以扇贝和菲律宾蛤仔为例

为研究具有不同镉(Cd)富集能力的扇贝和菲律宾蛤仔在相同镉胁迫环境下的抗氧化能力反应的差异,将2种贝类于0.05mg·L-1Cd环境中暴露10 d,分别于第0天、2天、4天、6天、8天、10天分别取样检测内脏团中SOD、CAT、GPx、GST酶活性和GSH含量,同时分析内脏团中Cd的含量。结果表明,对于Cd胁迫组,扇贝和菲律宾蛤仔内脏团中SOD和CAT酶活反应相似,均呈先被诱导后被抑制的规律,且2种贝类的SOD和CAT活性差异较小。2种贝类内脏团中GSH含量、GST和GPx活性变化差异较大:扇贝内脏团中GSH含量显著降低(p0.05),GST和GPx活性均在第2天和第4天时处于显著诱导状态(p0.05),从第6天时处于抑制状态,而菲律宾蛤仔内脏团中GSH含量、GST和GPx活性在Cd暴露期间无显著变化,且2种贝类间比较,扇贝内脏团中GSH含量和GST活性在整个实验期间始终显著高于菲律宾蛤仔(p0.05),GPx活性从第4天开始高于菲律宾蛤仔;对于无镉污染的对照组,扇贝和菲律宾蛤仔内脏团中SOD、CAT和GPx活性无显著差异,但扇贝内脏团中GSH含量和GST活性显著高于菲律宾蛤仔,其中前者GSH含量约为后者的22倍。研究同时表明在相同镉环境下扇贝内脏团对Cd的富集浓度和富集速率均远高于菲律宾蛤仔。本研究明确了2种贝类在相同镉环境下的抗氧化反应的差异,推断出扇贝内脏团中高含量的GSH以及较高的GST和GPx活性可能在扇贝高富集、高耐受Cd方面起重要作用。