Integrating Top-Down with Bottom-Up Conservation Policy in Africa

Abstract:  Developed nations intervened in conservation policy across Africa during the 20th century to address needs to protect species and biodiversity that were based on their own perceptions and priorities. In the 21st century, conservationists in Africa have revised these perceptions and begun the process of identifying conservation priorities from an African perspective and in consideration of Africans' priorities. Although foreign conservation interveners struggled to identify mechanisms to which local people would respond, African conservationists are now demonstrating how to integrate the continent's unique socioeconomic circumstances into efforts to protect biodiversity. In Africa effective conservation policy must include the generation of wealth, reduction of disease and hunger, and support of traditional land-use practices.     

Directions in Conservation Biology: Comments on Caughley

The recent review by Caughley (1994) on approaches used in conservation biology suggested that there are two: the small population paradigm and the declining population paradigm. We believe that this division is overly simplistic and that it should not be perpetuated. Both the deterministic factors that reduce population size and the stochastic factors that lead to the final extinction of a small population are critical to consider in preventing extinction. Only through an overall and comprehensive effort, which we call inclusive population viability analysis, can extinction processes be understood and mitigated. In this context we discuss Caughley's comments about genetics, demography, and general population viability, with particular attention to cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) and Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus sp. ) .     

To flee or not to flee: predator avoidance by cheetahs at kills

Mammalian carnivores are unusual because their primary competitors for food are often their primary predators. This relationship is most evident at persistent kills where dominant competitors are attracted to both the carcass (as a free meal) and to the killers (as potential prey). Cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) are frequent victims of kleptoparasitism, and cubs, and sometimes adults, are killed by lions (Panthera leo) or spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta). Between 1980 and 2002, we observed 639 kills made by cheetahs in Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. These kills were often visited by scavengers, including relatively innocuous species such as vultures and jackals and potentially dangerous species, like spotted hyenas and lions. We used cheetah behavior at kills to test a number of predictions about how cheetahs should minimize risk at kill sites given they face an increased risk of predation of themselves or their cubs. In particular, we examined the propensity of cheetahs of different age/sex classes to hide carcasses after making a kill, vigilance at kills, and the delay in leaving after finishing feeding with respect to ecological factors and scavenger presence. The behavior of single females at kills did not suggest that they were trying to avoid being killed, but the behavior of males, often found in groups, was in line with this hypothesis. In contrast, the behavior of mother cheetahs at kills appeared to be influenced greatly by the risk of cubs being killed. Our results suggest that cheetahs use several behavioral counterstrategies to avoid interspecific predation of self or cubs.     

Lineage Loss in Serengeti Cheetahs: Consequences of High Reproductive Variance and Heritability of Fitness on Effective Population Size

Abstract: In natural populations, many breeders do not leave surviving offspring, and as a result many potential genetic lineages are lost. I examined lineage extinction in Serengeti cheetahs ( Acinonyx jubatus ) and found that 76% of matrilines were lost over a 25-year period. Production of future breeders was nonrandom and generally confined to a few families. Five out of 63 matrilines accounted for 45% of the total cheetah population over the course of the study. Lineage persistence is perhaps best illustrated by the variance in lifetime reproductive success ( LRS) and heritability in this parameter. In female cheetahs, variance in LRS was high, and new data show that this LRS was heritable. Variance in LRS and heritability in LRS have dramatic consequences for effective population size, N _e. I calculated N _e for cheetahs, taking into account fluctuating population size, unequal sex ratio, non-Poisson distribution of reproductive success, and heritability of fitness. The N _e was most strongly affected by variance in reproductive success and especially heritability in reproductive success. The variance N _e was 44% of the actual population size, and the inclusion of heritability further reduced N _e to only 15% of the actual population, a ratio similar to that of a social carnivore with reproductive suppression. The current cheetah population in the Serengeti is below numbers suggested by N _e estimates as sufficient to maintain sufficient genetic diversity.     

Wild Dog Demography in Hluhluwe-Umfolozi Park, South Africa

Abstract: Wild dogs (   Lycaon pictus ) are highly threatened carnivores, and conservation of their dwindling numbers is needed. Isolated populations contribute little to these conservation efforts, so linking populations of dogs is a necessary goal to prevent extinction. I gathered demographic information from a small population of wild dogs in Hluhluwe-Umfolozi Park, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Photographs and archive records from 1981 to 1996 were used to compile information on this population. Demographic parameters from the released population were compared with information on wild dogs elsewhere. Most demographic parameters of the Hluhluwe-Umfolozi Park population were similar to published information from other populations. The main difference was the effect of a single pack on population performance: pack formation was unlikely, unrelated animals were rare, and major losses (emigration and mortalities) occurred. Increasing the number of packs by introducing more dogs would be useful but would be only a short-term solution. Increasing the local population size and artificially linking populations in southern Africa appears to be the only longer-term solution to ensure the viability of wild dogs on the subcontinent.     

Bayesian modelling of extreme wind speed at Cape Town,South Africa

In the framework of generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, the frequentist and Bayesian methods have been used to analyse the extremes of annual maxima wind speed recorded by automatic weather stations in Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa. In the frequentist approach, the GEV distribution parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood, whereas in the Bayesian method the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique with the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm was used. The results show that the GEV model with trend in the location parameter appears to be a better model for annual maxima data. The paper also discusses a method to construct informative priors empirically using historical data of the underlying process from other weather stations. The results from the Bayesian analysis show that posterior inference might be affected by the choice of priors and hence by the distance between a weather station used to formulate the priors and the point of interest.     

Modelling dependence structures of extreme wind speed using bivariate distribution: a Bayesian approach

When investigating extremes of weather variables, it is seldom that a single weather station determines the damage, and extremes may be caused from the combined behaviour of several weather stations. To investigate joint dependence of extreme wind speed, a bivariate generalised extreme value distribution (BGEVD) was considered from frequentist and Bayesian approaches to analyse the extremes of component-wise monthly maximum wind speed at selected weather stations in South Africa. In the frequentist approach, the parameters of extreme value distributions (EVDs) were estimated with maximum likelihood, whereas in the Bayesian approach the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique was used with the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. The results showed that when fitted to component-wise maxima of extreme weather variables, the BGEVD provided apparent benefits over the univariate method, which allowed information to be pooled across stations and resulted in improved precision of the estimates for the parameters and return levels of the distributions. The paper also discusses a method to construct informative priors empirically using historical data of the underlying process from weather characteristics of four pairs of surrounding weather stations at various distances. The results from the Bayesian analysis showed that posterior inference might be affected by the choice of priors that were used to formulate the informative priors. From the results, it could be inferred that the Bayesian approach provides a satisfactory estimation strategy in terms of precision, compared with the frequentist approach, because it accounts for uncertainty in parameters and return level estimations.     

Antipoaching standards in onshore hydrocarbon concessions drawn from a Central African case study

Unsustainable hunting outside protected areas is threatening tropical biodiversity worldwide and requires conservationists to engage increasingly in antipoaching activities. Following the example of ecocertified logging companies, we argue that other extractive industries managing large concessions should engage in antipoaching activities as part of their environmental management plans. Onshore hydrocarbon concessions should also adopt antipoaching protocols as a standard because they represent a biodiversity threat comparable to logging. We examined the spatiotemporal patterns of small‐ and large‐mammal poaching in an onshore oil concession in Gabon, Central Africa, with a Bayesian occupancy model based on signs of poaching collected from 2010 to 2015 on antipoaching patrols. Patrol locations were initially determined based on local intelligence and past patrol successes (adaptive management) and subsequently with a systematic sampling of the concession. We generated maps of poaching probability in the concession and determined the temporal trends of this threat over 5 years. The spatiotemporal patterns of large‐ and small‐mammal poaching differed throughout the concession, and likely these groups will need different management strategies. By elucidating the relationship between site‐specific sampling effort and detection probability, the Bayesian method allowed us to set goals for future antipoaching patrols. Our results indicate that a combination of systematic sampling and adaptive management data is necessary to infer spatiotemporal patterns with the statistical method we used. On the basis of our case study, we recommend hydrocarbon companies interested in implementing efficient antipoaching activities in their onshore concessions to lay the foundation of long‐needed industry standards by: adequately measuring antipoaching effort; mixing adaptive management and balanced sampling; setting goals for antipoaching effort; pairing patrols with large‐mammal monitoring; supporting antipoaching patrols across the landscape; restricting access to their concessions; performing random searches for bushmeat and mammal products at points of entry; controlling urban and agricultural expansion; supporting bushmeat alternatives; and supporting land‐use planning.     

Phylogeographic structure of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Octopus vulgaris</Emphasis> in South Africa revisited: identification of a second lineage near Durban harbour

In a previous study that investigated genetic structure of Octopus vulgaris along the South African coast by sequencing the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase III gene (COIII), all sequences generated were identical. Such a finding is unusual, because mitochondrial DNA mutates quickly, and several marine invertebrates present in southern Africa show considerable genetic variation and structure. We reanalysed the samples using two different mitochondrial markers, namely cytochrome oxidase I (COI) and the large ribosomal subunit (16S rRNA). Sequences of both these markers showed variation. The conclusion of the previous study, that South Africa’s O. vulgaris population is characterised by a lack of genetic structure along the coast, is rejected. Some specimens from Durban (southeast Africa) were genetically more different from those found in the remainder of the country than were specimens from other regions (Tristan da Cunha and Senegal). We suggest that the lineage in Durban may have been recently introduced.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Acropora austera</Emphasis> connectivity in the south-western Indian Ocean assessed using nuclear intron sequence data

The hypervariable carbonic anhydrase 3/550 intron marker was sequenced in order to ascertain the levels of genetic variability and connectivity within and between reefal populations of the hard coral, Acropora austera, on the south-east African coastline. Populations were sampled from (north to south) Bazaruto and Inhaca islands (Mozambique), Rabbit Rock, Two-mile and Red Sands Reefs and Leadsman Shoal (Maputaland, South Africa). Populations at Inhaca Island contained two private alleles, part of the only monophyletic clade with fixed differences between populations in this study. Haplotype and nucleotide diversity were higher in the north of the study area. Indices of migration and haplotype sharing supported significant connectivity between populations in South Africa and Mozambique, which may be important in sustaining genetic diversity in the down-current South African A. austera populations. Measures of population subdivision indicated a significant amount of fixation of allele frequencies amongst populations. Although fine, such differentiation in a marker from the nuclear genome of a hard coral is consistent with some demographic isolation between A. austera populations in southern Mozambique and South Africa. Populations at Rabbit Rock and Inhaca Island were found to be significantly isolated from, and thus less connected to, A. austera populations at other reefs.     

Habitat Use and Life History as Predictors of Bird Responses to Habitat Change

Abstract:  In theory the consideration of life-history characteristics should provide a way of making predictive generalizations about the responses of different species to environmental modification. Nevertheless, few studies have tested the validity of this assumption or attempted to apply it across large numbers of related species. We explored both quantitative and qualitative contrasts between species of waterbirds that have either expanded or contracted their ranges in southern Africa over the past 40 years to test the hypothesis that expansionists and contractionists, respectively, should share life-history characteristics and/or ecological attributes. Similarities and differences in life history and ecology were explored through multivariate statistics. Overall, life-history traits provided an inadequate explanation of whether species would be range expansionists or contractionists. By contrast, ecological attributes of species that related to habitat use correlated well with range changes. In particular, waterbird species that inhabit pans seemed to be preadapted to using human-made dams and impoundments. The ability of many species to use artificial wetlands has aided their westward range expansions into arid regions of southern Africa. By contrast, species that rely on vegetated wetlands and that require reeds for nesting were predisposed to range contraction because their habitats have been severely affected by agricultural development and urbanization. In direct contrast to range expansions, most range contractions were west to east, the eastward contraction reflected the high level of wetland loss and degradation in the eastern lowlands of South Africa. Based on analysis of ecological attributes of regional contractionists, several additional species were identified as of potential conservation concern, although such concern may not as yet have been expressed.     

The moral residue of conservation

Should conservationists use lethal management to control introduced wildlife populations? Should they kill individual animals to protect endangered species? Are trade-offs that prioritize some values at the expense of others morally appropriate? These sorts of ethical questions are common in conservation. In debating such questions, conservationists often seem to presume 1 of 2 possible answers: the act in question is right or it is wrong. But morality in conservation is considerably more complex than this simple binary suggests. A robust conservation ethic requires a vocabulary that gives voice to the uncertainty and unease that arise when what seems to be the best available course of action also seems to involve a measure of wrongdoing. The philosophical literature on moral residue and moral dilemmas supplies this vocabulary. Moral dilemmas arise when one must neglect certain moral requirements to fulfill others. Under such circumstances, even the best possible decision leaves a moral residue, which is experienced emotionally as some form of grief. Examples of conservation scenarios that leave a moral residue include management of introduced rabbits in Australia, trophy hunting in Africa, and forest management trade-offs in the Pacific Northwest. Moral residue is integral to the moral experience of conservationists today, and grief is an appropriate response to many decisions conservationists must make. Article impact statement: Defensible conservation decisions may neglect moral requirements, leaving a moral residue; conservationists should respond with grief.     

Estimating the Density of Honeybee Colonies across Their Natural Range to Fill the Gap in Pollinator Decline Censuses

Abstract: Although pollinator declines are a global biodiversity threat, the demography of the western honeybee (Apis mellifera) has not been considered by conservationists because it is biased by the activity of beekeepers. To fill this gap in pollinator decline censuses and to provide a broad picture of the current status of honeybees across their natural range, we used microsatellite genetic markers to estimate colony densities and genetic diversity at different locations in Europe, Africa, and central Asia that had different patterns of land use. Genetic diversity and colony densities were highest in South Africa and lowest in Northern Europe and were correlated with mean annual temperature. Confounding factors not related to climate, however, are also likely to influence genetic diversity and colony densities in honeybee populations. Land use showed a significantly negative influence over genetic diversity and the density of honeybee colonies over all sampling locations. In Europe honeybees sampled in nature reserves had genetic diversity and colony densities similar to those sampled in agricultural landscapes, which suggests that the former are not wild but may have come from managed hives. Other results also support this idea: putative wild bees were rare in our European samples, and the mean estimated density of honeybee colonies on the continent closely resembled the reported mean number of managed hives. Current densities of European honeybee populations are in the same range as those found in the adverse climatic conditions of the Kalahari and Saharan deserts, which suggests that beekeeping activities do not compensate for the loss of wild colonies. Our findings highlight the importance of reconsidering the conservation status of honeybees in Europe and of regarding beekeeping not only as a profitable business for producing honey, but also as an essential component of biodiversity conservation.     

Living at the Edge: Local versus Positional Factors in the Long‐Term Population Dynamics of an Endangered Orchid

Abstract: Populations at the margin of geographic ranges of distribution have been considered more vulnerable than central ones, but recent reviews have caste doubt on this generalization. We examined the reproductive and demographic performance of a rare Euroasiatic orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) at its southwesterly range limit and compared our findings with those of previous studies of nine central populations at the center of the orchid's range. We sought to test the central‐marginal model and to evaluate factors involved in long‐term performance of forest Eurosiberian species with peripheral populations in southern European mountains. We characterized (structure, temporal fluctuations, herbivory, reproductive success, and recruitment at different habitats) four Pyrenean populations of C. calceolus of different sizes (5–3500 ramets) and monitored three of them for up to 13 years. Two quantitative stochastic models (count data and matrix models) were used to assess population trends and viability and the effect of herbivory. Contrary to expectations, and despite the negative effect of sporadic events of herbivory, the peripheral populations we studied (except the smallest one) performed similarly or better than populations occurring in central part of the species’ range in terms of reproductive success and population growth rates. Landscape changes over the last 50 years suggest that natural reforestation could be involved in the success of this plant at its southern limit. Forest expansion in the mountain regions of southern Europe may provide new opportunities for plants with geographic distributions centered mainly at higher latitudes and give some hope for their recovery in future scenarios dominated by biodiversity loss.     

Wildlife impacts and vulnerable livelihoods in a transfrontier conservation landscape

Interactions between humans and wildlife resulting in negative impacts are among the most pressing conservation challenges globally. In regions of smallholder livestock and crop production, interactions with wildlife can compromise human well-being and motivate negative sentiment and retaliation toward wildlife, undermining conservation goals. Although impacts may be unavoidable when human and wildlife land use overlap, scant large-scale human data exist quantifying the direct costs of wildlife to livelihoods. In a landscape of global importance for wildlife conservation in southern Africa, we quantified costs for people living with wildlife through a fundamental measure of human well-being, food security, and we tested whether existing livelihood strategies buffer certain households against crop depredation by wildlife, predominantly elephants. To do this, we estimated Bayesian multilevel statistical models based on multicounty household data (n = 711) and interpreted model results in the context of spatial data from participatory land-use mapping. Reported crop depredation by wildlife was widespread. Over half of the sample households were affected and household food security was reduced significantly (odds ratio 0.37 [0.22, 0.63]). The most food insecure households relied on gathered food sources and welfare programs. In the event of crop depredation by wildlife, these 2 livelihood sources buffered or reduced harmful effects of depredation. The presence of buffering strategies suggests a targeted compensation strategy could benefit the region's most vulnerable people. Such strategies should be combined with dynamic and spatially explicit land-use planning that may reduce the frequency of negative human–wildlife impacts. Quantifying and mitigating the human costs from wildlife are necessary steps in working toward human–wildlife coexistence.     

Expert views on sustainability and technology implementation

The role of non-timber forest products in sustaining rural economies of the southern African region has been underestimated because of inadequate policy recognition. As a result, factors affecting the sustainability of these important resources are being undermined. The aim of the paper is to examine trade in two selected NTFPs and implications for sustaining the resource base in Zimbabwe and South Africa. In eastern Zimbabwe, baobab (Adansonia digitata) bark is harvested for craft purposes, but in danger of destruction in the short term as a result of harvesting and trade arrangements. Unless appropriate harvesting and marketing mechanisms including harvesting cycles and adaptive management are adopted, the baobabs and livelihoods of humans will be threatened in the next decade. For wood products from communal woodlands in the South African study, uncontrolled trade poses danger to sustaining the natural woodlands. In both case studies, the role of non-resident NTFP dealers is a source of inevitable threat in promoting sustainable harvesting and trade. Market forces of demand and supply factors are identified as opportunities or threats and presented in a conceptualised framework. Additionally, the NTFP sector management will need to include opportunistic improvement of small-scale agropastoralism.     

Supporting conservationists’ mental health through better working conditions

Biodiversity conservation work can be challenging but rewarding, and both aspects have potential consequences for conservationists’ mental health. Yet, little is known about patterns of mental health among conservationists and its associated workplace protective and risk factors. A better understanding might help improve working conditions, supporting conservationists’ job satisfaction, productivity, and engagement, while reducing costs from staff turnover, absenteeism, and presenteeism. We surveyed 2311 conservation professionals working in 122 countries through an internet survey shared via mailing lists, social media, and other channels. We asked them about experiences of psychological distress, working conditions, and personal characteristics. Over half were from and worked in Europe and North America, and most had a university-level education, were in desk-based academic and practitioner roles, and responded in English. Heavy workload, job demands, and organizational instability were linked to higher distress, but job stability and satisfaction with one's contributions to conservation were associated with lower distress. Respondents with low dispositional and conservation-specific optimism, poor physical health, and limited social support, women, and early-career professionals were most at risk of distress in our sample. Our results flag important risk factors that employers could consider, although further research is needed among groups underrepresented in our sample. Drawing on evidence-based occupational health interventions, we suggest measures that could promote better working conditions and thus may improve conservationists’ mental health and abilities to protect nature.     

The costs and benefits of predator inspection behaviour in Thomson's gazelles

Summary When Thomson's gazelles (Gazella thomsoni) detect stalking predators, such as cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) and lions (Panthera leo), they often approach and follow the predator for up to 72 min (average 14 min). Coursing predators are rarely approached. Gazelle groups were more likely to approach cheetahs if the groups were larger, if the vegetation was low, or if the cheetahs came closer to the group. Immature gazelles were more likely to approach than adults, and a higher proportion of group members participated in inspection behaviour in small groups than in large ones. Gazelles approached closer in less risky situations: if they were in larger groups or if the vegetation was low. Inspection behaviour caused cheetahs to move further between rests and between hunting attempts. Approaching cheetahs was risky, particularly for younger gazelles (probability of being killed while inspecting a cheetah was 1 in 5000 approaches for adults and 1 in 417 approaches for half-grown/adolescent gazelles), and the risks were higher than monitoring cheetahs from a distance. The time costs of predator inspection were also considerable (less than 4.2% of daylight time budget), suggesting that the benefits must be substantial to offset these costs. The results suggested that inspection behaviour was multifunctional, causing stalking predators to move out of the vicinity, enabling gazelles to monitor the predators' movements, and providing an opportunity, particularly for younger animals, to learn about predators. By approaching, gazelles also inform predators that they have been detected and alert other gazelles to the predators' presence.     

Declines in migrant shorebird populations from a winter‐quarter perspective

Many long‐distance migrating shorebird (i.e., sandpipers, plovers, flamingos, oystercatchers) populations are declining. Although regular shorebird monitoring programs exist worldwide, most estimates of shorebird population trends and sizes are poor or nonexistent. We built a state‐space model to estimate shorebird population trends. Compared with more commonly used methods of trend estimation, state‐space models are more mechanistic, allow for the separation of observation and state process, and can easily accommodate multivariate time series and nonlinear trends. We fitted the model to count data collected from 1990 to 2013 on 18 common shorebirds at the 2 largest coastal wetlands in southern Africa, Sandwich Harbour (a relatively pristine bay) and Walvis Bay (an international harbor), Namibia. Four of the 12 long‐distance migrant species declined since 1990: Ruddy Turnstone (Arenaria interpres), Little Stint (Calidris minuta), Common Ringed Plover (Charadrius hiaticula), and Red Knot (Calidris canutus). Populations of resident species and short‐distance migrants increased or were stable. Similar patterns at a key South African wetland suggest that shorebird populations migrating to southern Africa are declining in line with the global decline, but local conditions in southern Africa's largest wetlands are not contributing to these declines. State‐space models provide estimates of population levels and trends and could be used widely to improve the current state of water bird estimates.