New hydroepidemiological models of indicator organisms and zoonotic pathogens in agricultural watersheds

Simple analytical models are derived to assess how a series of cattle animal farms affect the transport and fate of an indicator organism (Escherichia coli) and a zoonotic pathogen (Campylobacter) in a stream. Separate steady-state mass-balance models are developed and solved for the ultimate minimum and maximum concentrations for the two organisms. The E. coli model assumes that the organism is ubiquitous and abundant in the animals’ digestive tracts. In contrast, a simple dose-response model is employed to relate the Campylobacter prevalence to drinking water drawn from the stream. Because faecal indicators are commonly employed to assess the efficacy of best management practice (BMP) interventions, we also employ the models to assess how BMPs impact pathogen levels. The model provides predictions of (a) the relative removal efficacy for Campylobacter and (b) the prevalence of Campylobacter infection among farm animals after implementation of BMPs. Dimensionless numbers and simple graphs are developed to assess how prevalence is influenced by a number of factors including animal density and farm spacing. A significant outcome of this model development is that the numerous dimensional input and parameter variables are reduced to a group of just four dimensionless Campylobacter-related quantities, characterizing: animal density; in-stream attenuation; animal-to-animal transmission; and infection recovery. Calculations reveal that for some constellations of these four quantities there can be a greater-than-expected benefit in that the proportional reduction of stream Campylobacter concentrations post-BMP can substantially exceed the proportional reduction of concentrations of E. coli in that stream. In addition, a criterion for system sterility (i.e., the conditions required for the farm infection rate to decrease with downstream distance) is derived.     

Effect of streambed bacteria release on E. coli concentrations: Monitoring and modeling with the modified SWAT

Streambed sediment has been attracting attention as a reservoir for bacteria, including pathogenic strains. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been augmented with a bacteria transport subroutine in SWAT2005 in which bacteria die-off is the only in-stream process. The purpose of this study was to develop the partial model of sediment-associated bacteria transport in stream and to evaluate the potential significance of streambed Escherichia coli (E. coli) release and deposition within the SWAT microbial water quality simulations. Streambed E. coli release and deposition were simulated based on the sediment resuspension and deposition modules in SWAT. The modified SWAT was applied to the Little Cove Creek watershed, Pennsylvania, which has forestry and dairy pasture landuses. Temporal changes in sediment E. coli concentrations were derived from monitoring data rather than from a streambed bacteria population model. Sensitivity analyses and calibrations were separately conducted for both hydrologic and bacteria parameters. Hydrologic calibration characterized soils in the watershed as pervious and thus the surface runoff was only moderately contributing to the streamflow. However, the surface runoff carried large numbers of E. coli to the stream, and sediment resuspension contributed to the persistent concentration of E. coli in stream water. Although the uncertainty of E. coli concentrations in streambed sediments and from wildlife probably affected the performance of the modified SWAT model, this study qualitatively confirmed the significance of modeling E. coli release from streambed and deposition for the SWAT microbial water quality simulations. Further developments should include modeling dynamics of bacteria populations within streambeds.     

Simulation tools to support bathing water quality management: Escherichia coli bacteria in a Baltic lagoon

Insufficient hygienic water quality and bathing prohibitions are still a serious problem in the Szczecin Lagoon (southern Baltic). In our study we focus on the southern lagoon coast and analyse the causes and consequences of high Escherichia coli bacteria concentrations. For this purpose we carry out laboratory experiments on the behaviour of E.coli in the lagoon, a literature review and apply a three-dimensional flow model together with a Lagrangian particle tracking routine. Three major E.coli sources, the Uecker river, the wetlands with cattle as well as sea gulls with bathing and fisheries were allocated, quantified and compiled into an emission scenario. This serves as input for transport simulations under different wind conditions and for the development of a spatial contamination map. Reasons for high E.coli concentrations in the lagoon are a permanent supply from different sources and the special environmental situation in the lagoon. The availability of organic matter, either in form of reed stems or as muddy sediments, has a positive effect on bacteria survival. Very important, too, are the prevailing wind and flow conditions, which cause water and organism transport in narrow ribbons along the coastline and promote near-shore accumulations. Even in our shallow lagoon, the application of a 3D-model is beneficial. Heavy rains are, very likely, responsible for the outstanding high total-coliform concentrations of 11,000?cfu/100?ml on August 21, 2006. The model system proved to be a valuable tool for spatial analysis and is suitable to support the development of bathing water profiles according to the EU Bathing Water Directive (2006/7/EC).     

Modeling the population dynamics of cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) over a wide area in northern China

The cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is one of the most serious crop pests in northern China, calling for accurate prediction of pest outbreaks and strategies for pest control. A computer model is developed to simulate the population dynamics of H. armigera over a wide area in northern China. The area considered covers 12 provinces where serious outbreaks of H. armigera have been observed. In this model, pest development is driven by local ambient temperature, and adults migrate long distances between regions and select preferred hosts for oviposition within a region. Six types of host including cotton, wheat, corn, peanut, soybean and a single category composed of all other minor hosts are considered in this model. Survival rates of eggs and larvae are based on life-table data, and simulated as a function of host type, host phenology and temperature. The incidence of diapause depends on temperature and photoperiod experienced during the larval stage. Survival rate of non-diapause pupae is a nonlinear function of rainfall, and overwinter survival rate is a nonlinear function of temperature. Insecticide is applied when population density exceeds the economic threshold on a host crop within a region. Comparisons of model output with light-trap data indicate that our model reflects the pest population dynamics over a wide area, and could potentially be used for testing novel pest control strategies in northern China.     

Detection of Escherichia coli in wastewater based on enzyme immunoassay

This research describes a fast detection method on the basis of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for Escherichia coli in drainage of wastewater treatment plants. Optimized conditions such as the reaction format (sandwich or direct), the concentrations of diluted horseradish peroxidase (HRP)-E. coli conjugate, and anti-HPR antibody and pretreatment of E. coli were studied. Those results showed that the linear range of detection for E. coli was 10 cfu/mL-6 × 10⁴ cfu/mL. Compared with conventional methods, it is a convenient and sensitive detection method with low cost.     

New beach in a shallow estuarine lagoon: a model-based <Emphasis Type="Italic">E. coli</Emphasis> pollution risk assessment

A 3D hydrodynamic model has been applied to the Curonian Lagoon to study the pollution impact of E. coli on a new beach that might be opened in the lagoon. Through a field survey the E. coli inputs were measured and then used in the numerical model, and through laboratory experiments the decay rate of E. coli was established. The model has been calibrated and validated for the year 2015, and several scenarios have been studied, such as sewage system breakdown, severe weather conditions or high river loads. The model has then been run for a period of 12 years to obtain a robust statistics for the pollution on the planned beach. Results show that the decay rate of E. coli is between 0.55 days and 2.3 days and the modeled decay times are compatible with these numbers. The only scenario that would create a risk for the bathing waters of the beach is a breakdown of the sewage system on the Curonian Spit. In this case the hours (and days) over legally allowable bathing threshold were computed in order to estimate the number of days the beach could be closed. These results have been confirmed by the 12 year simulations. With an influence map analysis the two most critical sewage systems could be identified.     

A system-dynamic model on the competitive growth between Potamogeton malaianus Miq. and Spirogyra sp.

A system-dynamic model has been built to evaluate the competition between submerged macrophytes Potamogeton malaianus Miq. (PM) and filamentous green algae Spirogyra sp. (SP). The data background is based on a spring–summer and an autumn–winter experiment carried out in artificial field ponds. The experiments had the aim to acquire a knowledge base necessary to a successful restoration of submerged macrophyte vegetation in Lake Taihu, China by use of P. malaianus Miq. The model mainly focuses on variations in water volume; biomass dynamics of P. malaianus Miq., Spirogyra sp. and zoobenthos; nutrients cycling between water column, P. malaianus Miq., Spirogyra sp., zoobenthos, detritus and sediment. Sixteen state variables are included in the model: biomass of P. malaianus Miq., Spirogyra sp. and zoobenthos; nitrogen in sediments, detritus, in P. malaianus Miq., in Spirogyra sp. and zoobenthos; total dissolved nitrogen; phosphorus in sediments, detritus, in P. malaianus Miq., in Spirogyra sp. and in zoobenthos; total dissolved phosphorus, and water volume of the experiment pond. The calibration and validation of the model show a good accordance with the results of the spring–summer experiment and the autumn–winter experiment.     

Relative importance and interactive effects of photosynthesis and food in two solar-powered sea slugs

Sacoglossans use chloroplasts taken from algal food for photosynthesis (kleptoplasty), but the adaptive significance of this phenomenon remains unclear. Two con-generic sacoglossans (Elysia trisinuata and E. atroviridis) were collected in 2009–2011 from Shirahama (33.69°N, 135.34°E) and Mukaishima (34.37°N, 133.22°E), Japan, respectively. They were individually maintained for 16 days under four experimental conditions (combination of light/dark and with/without food), and their survival rate and relative (=final/initial) weights were measured. Both light and food had positive effects on the survival in E. trisinuata, whereas no positive effects of light or food on survival were detected in E. atroviridis. Both light and food had positive effects on relative weights in both species, but light had smaller effects than food. A significant interaction term between light and food was detected in E. trisinuata (but not in E. atroviridis) in that only the presence of both resulted in weight gains. This result suggests that E. trisinuata can obtain sufficient additional energy from photosynthesis for sustaining growth when fresh chloroplasts are continuously supplied from algal food. In addition, fluorescence yield measurements showed that unfed individuals of both E. trisinuata and E. atroviridis lost photosynthetic activity soon (<4 and 4–8 days, respectively). In conclusion, photosynthesis may function to obtain supplementary nutrition for sustaining growth when food is available in sacoglossans with short-term functional kleptoplasty.     

The use of simulation modeling to evaluate the mechanisms responsible for the nutritional benefits of food-for-protection mutualisms

In some mutualisms, a plant or insect provides a food resource in exchange for protection from herbivores, competitors or predators. This food resource can benefit the consumer, but the relative importance of different mechanisms responsible for this benefit is unclear. We used a colony-level simulation model to test the relative importance of increased larval production, increased worker foraging and increased worker survival for colony growth of fire ants, Solenopsis invicta, that consume plant-based foods. Increased food for larvae had the largest effect on colony growth of S. invicta followed by decreased worker mortality. Increased foraging rate had a small effect in the simulation model but data from a small laboratory experiment and another published study suggest that plant-based foods have little or no effect on foraging rates of S. invicta. Colony growth steadily increased the longer plant-based food was available and colonies were most responsive to plant-based food in the early summer (i.e., June). Our results demonstrate that population level simulation modeling can be a useful tool for examining the ecology of mutualistic interactions and the mechanisms through which species interact.     

An individual-based model to study the reproduction of egg bearing copepods: Application to Eurytemora affinis (Copepoda Calanoida) from the Seine estuary,France

Limited empirical studies have elucidated the daily egg production and associated reproductive processes of egg bearing copepod. Herein, we present an individual-based model which constitutes a realistic representation of the reproduction in egg bearing copepods. The model has been parameterized using an extensive set of experimental data obtained from the literature and from the laboratory and field experiments on the estuarine copepod Eurytemora affinis. The proposed model takes into account the adult female longevity, the clutch size and interclutch duration, which is a function of egg maturation time and latency time required by the female after egg hatching to produce a new clutch. The embryonic development time and hatching success are also taken into account. The effect of temperature on the means and variances of above-mentioned reproductive parameters has been also incorporated. A multi agent system based generic platform “Mobidyc” has been used to generate and calibrate the model. The model demonstrates the reproductive parameters of females of E. affinis which is validated through individual based experiments. Temperature specific simulations provide a dynamical explanation of temperature effect on the cumulative egg production. The daily survival principally affects the number of clutches produced per female during its life span. The results obtained in the present study by combining temperature and survival effects reveal the relatively greater importance of the first factor on the daily egg production of egg-carrying copepods. The present model is generic and hence easily applicable to other animals with comparable reproductive strategy.     

Response of roselle (Hibiscus sabdariffa) to heavy metals contamination in soils with different organic fertilisations

The response of green roselle (Hibiscus sabdariffa) to Cu/Pb contamination and manure application in soil was investigated using pot experiments. Subsamples of a mineral soil were treated with increasing doses (0–500 mg kg^?1) of Cu/Pb only and/or amended (at 10% w/w) with poultry or swine manure. Roselle plants were grown, monitored for changes in growth rate and post-harvest aboveground dry biomass and tissue Cu/Pb concentrations were determined. The plants were typically greenish with linear growth profiles at all metal doses, indicating some level of tolerance. Dry biomass yields decreased as metal dose increased. Poultry manure enhanced roselle biomass yields better than swine manure. Tissue Cu/Pb concentrations increased linearly as metal doses increased in unamended soils; whereas nonlinear responses were observed in manure-amended soils. Soil-to-plant transfer factors, T _f (%) indicated that Cu (13≤T _f (% )≤60) was more phytoavailable to roselle than Pb (11≤T _f (% )≤20). Tissue metal concentrations were modelled from soil pH, organic matter, plant available and pseudototal metal; but the models appeared more reliable with plant available metal as a covariate than with pseudototal metal content. These observations may become useful whenever phytoextraction is the remedial option for soils moderately contaminated by toxic metals.     

Comparison of exergy found by a classical thermodynamic approach and by the use of the information stored in the genome

It is possible to calculate the exergy for organisms based on classic thermodynamics as already demonstrated by Mejer and Jorgensen [Mejer, H., Jorgensen, S.E., 1979. Exergy and ecological buffer capacity. State-of-the-art in Ecol. Model. 7, 829–846]. The calculation of exergy as eco-exergy, which is based on the information stored in the genome, has lately been proposed by Jørgensen and co-workers. Recently, Ludovisi [Ludovisi, A., 2009. Exergy vs information in ecological successions: interpreting community changes by a classical thermodynamic approach. Ecol. Model. 220, 1566–1577] has put forward a method based on classical thermodynamics, which leads to the calculation of “virtual” values of concentration at equilibrium for a number of organic compounds (VEC) and freshwater organisms (VECE). This paper compares the two approaches by analysing the correlation existing between the VECE- and the β-values derived by Jørgensen et al. [Jørgensen, S.E., Ladegaard, N., Debeljak, M., Marques, J.C., 2005. Calculations of exergy for organisms. Ecol. Model. 185, 165–175]. It was found that there was a good correlation, which can be useful for estimating β-values for organisms whose genome is not known in a sufficient detail. The relationship between VECE- and β-values suggests that two proposed thermodynamic orientors based on these quantities – the eco-exergy index and the structural information – should lead to coherent results when applied to the evaluation of the development state of ecosystems. A numerical simulation shows that this expectation is verified in a major case, but also that different, even opposite, responses can arise, depending on the biological composition of the biocoenosis investigated.     

Effect of ultraviolet irradiation and chlorination on ampicillin-resistant <Emphasis Type="Italic">Escherichia coli</Emphasis> and its ampicillin resistance gene

Antibiotic resistance is a serious public health risk that may spread via potable and reclaimed water. Effective disinfection is important for inactivation of antibiotic-resistant bacteria and disruption of antibiotic resistance genes. Ampicillin is a widely prescribed antibiotic but its effectiveness is increasingly undermined by resistance. In this study, changes in ampicillin resistance for Escherichia coli (E. coli) CGMCC 1.1595 were analyzed after exposure to different doses of ultraviolet (UV) or chlorine, and damage incurred by the plasmid encoding ampicillin resistance gene bla _TEM-1 was assessed. We reported a greater stability in ampicillinresistant E. coli CGMCC 1.1595 after UV irradiation or chlorination when compared with previously published data for other E. coli strains. UV irradiation and chlorination led to a shift in the mortality frequency distributions of ampicillin-resistant E. coli when subsequently exposed to ampicillin. The ampicillin hemiinhibitory concentration (IC₅₀) without disinfection was 3800 mg·L^–1, and an increment was observed after UV irradiation or chlorination. The IC₅₀ of ampicillin-resistant E. coli was 1.5-fold higher at a UV dose of 40 mJ·cm^–2, and was 1.4-fold higher when exposed to 2.0 mg·L^–1 chlorine. These results indicate that UV irradiation and chlorination can potentially increase the risk of selection for E. coli strains with high ampicillin resistance. There was no evident damage to bla _TEM-1 after 1–10 mg Cl₂·L^–1 chlorination, while a UV dose of 80 mJ·cm^–2 yielded a damage ratio for bla _TEM-1 of approximately 1.2-log. Therefore, high UV doses are required for effective disruption of antibiotic resistance genes in bacteria.     

Simulating regeneration and vegetation dynamics in Mediterranean coniferous forests

This study aims to provide a quantitative framework to model the dynamics of Mediterranean coniferous forests by integrating existing ecological data within a generic mathematical simulator. We developed an individual-based vegetation dynamics model, constrained on long-term field regeneration data, analyses of tree-rings and seed germination experiments. The simulator implements an asymmetric competition algorithm which is based on the location and size of each individual. Growth is parameterized through the analysis of tree-rings from more than thirty individuals of each of the three species of interest. A super-individual approach is implemented to simulate regeneration dynamics, constrained with available regeneration data across time-since-disturbance and light-availability gradients. The study concerns an insular population of an endemic to Greece Mediterranean fir (Abies cephalonica Loudon) on the island of Cephalonia (Ionian Sea) and two interacting populations of a Mediterranean pine (Pinus brutia Ten.) and a more temperate-oriented pine (Pinus nigra Arn. ssp. pallasiana) on the island of Lesbos (NE Aegean Sea), Greece. The model was validated against plot-level observations in terms of species standing biomass and regeneration vigour and adequately captured regeneration patterns and overall vegetation dynamics in both study sites. The potential effects of changing climatic patterns on the regeneration dynamics of the three species of interest were subsequently explored. With the assumption that a warmer future would probably cause changes in the duration of cold days, we tested how this change would affect the overall dynamics of the study sites, by focusing on the process of cold stratification upon seed germination. Following scenarios of a warmer future and under the current model parameterization, changes in the overall regeneration vigour controlled by a reduction in the amount of cold days, did not alter the overall dynamics in all plant populations studied. No changes were identified in the relative dominance of the interacting pine populations on Lesbos, while the observed reduction in the amount of emerging seedlings of A. cephalonica on Cephalonia did not affect biomass yield at later stages of stand development.     

Modelling N mineralization from green manure and farmyard manure from a laboratory incubation study

Predicting N mineralization from organic manures like farmyard manure (FYM) is more difficult than from fresh organic materials like crop residues, as the manures vary greatly in composition. A laboratory incubation experiment was carried out for 98 days at 30 °C under aerobic conditions to study the effects on N dynamics of Gliricidia (Gliricidia sepium, Jacquin) and FYM application to soil at 5 and 10 g kg⁻¹. Application of Gliricidia induced N mineralization from the start of incubation period, with the amount of N mineralized increasing with rate of application. In contrast, application of FYM resulted in immobilization of mineral N in soil, irrespective of the rate of application. The initial net immobilization from FYM was limited by availability of N in the soil for the higher rate of application.We used the APSIM SoilN module to simulate these contrasting patterns of mineralization of N from Gliricidia and from FYM. The prediction of N mineralized from Gliricidia was better than FYM. The default model parameters specify that the fresh organic matter pools (FPOOL1, FPOOL2 and FPOOL3) have the same C:N ratio and this assumption was ineffective in predicting N mineralized from FYM. The predictive ability of the model improved when this default assumption was modified based on the size of the individual pools (FPOOL1, FPOOL2 and FPOOL3), and the pool's C:N ratios. The modelling efficiency, a measure of goodness of fit between the simulated and observed data, improved markedly for the modified model. The discrepancy between the modelled and observed data was a tendency for the model to underestimate the rate of re-mineralization at the lower rate of application of FYM in the later part of incubation. Unfortunately the appropriate modification to the size and C:N ratios of the FPOOLs could not be determined on the basis of chemical analysis alone. Thus, a true predictive application of the model to a new FYM material is not yet possible.     

3D model for a secondary facultative pond

This paper describes a comprehensive model of wastewater treatment in secondary facultative ponds, which combines 3D hydrodynamics with a mechanistic water quality model. The hydrodynamics are based on the Navier-Stokes equation for incompressible fluids under shallow water and Boussinesq assumptions capturing the flow dynamics along length, breadth and depth of the pond. The water quality sub model is based on the Activated Sludge Model (ASM) concept, describing COD and nutrient removal as function of bacterial growth following Monod kinetics, except for Escherichia coli removal, which was modelled as first order decay. The model was implemented in the Delft3D software and was used to evaluate the effect of wind and the addition of baffles on the water flow pattern, temperature profiles in the pond and treatment efficiency. In contrast to earlier models reported in the literature, our simulation results did not show any significant improvement in COD removal (based on the ASM concept) with addition of baffles or under intermittent wind-induced mixing. However, E. coli removal efficiency, based on a first order decay approach, showed a fair improvement in the presence of baffles or intermittent wind-induced mixing. Furthermore, simulations with continuous wind effect showed a decrease in removal efficiency for COD but a further increase in E. coli removal efficiency. Such contrasting results for two different approaches in modelling could indicate that the first order decay concept might not be appropriate to describe all the interactions between biochemical processes in a pond. However, these interpretations remain theoretical, as the model needs validation with field data.     

Integrating farming techniques in an ecological matrix model: Implementation on the primrose (Primula vulgaris)

Several studies have proven the importance of field margins in sustaining biodiversity and other work has been done on the effect of field management on field margin flora. However few models have been built to predict the effects of field management on the flora. Our project addresses this need for a model capable of predicting the effect of cropping techniques and their timing on the flora of field margins. Primula vulgaris is a biodiversity indicator, characteristic of undisturbed flora and found in field margins and woodlands: its population has been declining for several years. We created a temporal matrix model of P. vulgaris populations on field margins, taking into account the effects of field, field margin and roadside management based on literature and expert knowledge. We then analysed its sensitivity to demographic parameters by comparing lambda (growth rate) sensitivity and elasticity. We compared the management parameter effect using the relative growth rate of the population after 6 years of simulation. Sensitivity analysis to biological parameters showed the importance of adult survival and seed production and germination. Results show that P. vulgaris is particularly sensitive to broad-spectrum herbicides and that other management techniques like early mowing, scything and scrub-killer (diluted broad-spectrum herbicide or specific herbicide) are less aggressive. Our simulations show that management of cash crops in Brittany is too aggressive for P. vulgaris populations and that 4-5 years of grassland in the adjacent field are necessary to maintain populations.     

Computer simulation applied to the biological control of the insect Aphis gossypii for the parasitoid Lysiphlebus testaceipes

In integrated pest management (IPM), biological control is one of the possible options for the prevention or remediation of an unacceptable pest activity or damage. The success of forecast models in IPM depends, among other factors, on the knowledge of temperature effect over pests and its natural enemies. In this work, we simulated the effects of parasitism of Lysiphlebus testaceipes (Cresson, 1880) (Hymenoptera: Aphidiidae) on Aphis gossypii (Glover, 1877) (Hemiptera: Aphididae), a pest that is associated to crops of great economic importance in several parts of the world. We made use of experimental data relative to the host and its parasitoid at different temperatures. Age structure was incorporated into the dynamics through the Penna model. The results obtained showed that simulation, as a forecast model, can be a useful tool for biological control programs.     

Relation between respiration,excretion (ammonia and inorganic phosphorus) and activity of amylase and trypsin in different species of pelagic copepods from an Indian Ocean equatorial area

The relationship between respiration, nitrogen and phosphorus excretion and specific activity of amylase and trypsin was investigated from shipboard experiments with several species of copepods from the equatorial divergence area of the Indian Ocean, in June 1978. Statistical analysis of O:N ratios in 6 of the most common species revealed three main groups: a group displaying low O:N (Pontella fera, Candacia pachydactyla); a group with high O:N (Undinula darwini, Euchaeta marina, Temora discaudata); and a species displaying an intermediate O:N ratio: Scolecithrix bradyi. O:P and N:P did not differ significantly between species. There was a direct relationship between average O:N and the ratios of specific activity of the digestive enzymes amylase and trypsin. Species displaying low O:N and/or A:T ratios such as P. fera, C. pachydactyla and Oncaea venusta probably metabolize proteins more efficiently than they do plant carbohydrates (high nitrogen excretion and low amylase activity). Species displaying high O:N and A:T ratios, such as U. darwini, E. marina and T. dicaudata (low nitrogen excretion and high amylase activity) were assumed to use carbohydrates (starch) and proteins with equal efficiency. S. bradyi showed a large range of variations in trypsin activity and low amylase activity, resulting in a low average A:T ratio, but its O:N ratio was intermediate. Variations in O:N and O:P ratios were related to differences in the nutritional strategy of the different species, based on literature data concerning the anatomy of their mouth parts and their selectivity for animal material in mixed-food experiments.     

Modelling the response of tree growth to temperature and CO2 elevation as related to the fertility and current temperature sum of a site

A methodology for simulating climate change impacts on tree growth was introduced into a statistical growth and yield model in relation to variations in site fertility and location implemented with current temperature sum. This was based on a procedure in which the relative enhancement in stem volume growth was calculated from short-term runs of a physiological simulation model for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and silver birch (Betula pendula Roth.) stands. These simulations were made for a set of stands with species-specific variations in stand characteristics, location and fertility type first in current climatic conditions and then in different combinations of CO₂ and temperature elevations. Based on these simulations, the relative enhancement of volume growth induced by the climate change (relative scenario effect, RSEv) was calculated and modelled in relation to: (i) CO₂ and temperature elevation, stand density and the competition status of the tree in its stand, and (ii) variations in site fertility type and current temperature sum of a stand. Finally, these transfer functions for RSEv were applied to adapt the stem volume growth in the statistical growth and yield model to reflect the response to climate change.