Sensitivity of species-distribution models to error,bias, and model design: An application to resource selection functions for woodland caribou

Models that predict distribution are now widely used to understand the patterns and processes of plant and animal occurrence as well as to guide conservation and management of rare or threatened species. Application of these methods has led to corresponding studies evaluating the sensitivity of model performance to requisite data and other factors that may lead to imprecise or false inferences. We expand upon these works by providing a relative measure of the sensitivity of model parameters and prediction to common sources of error, bias, and variability. We used a one-at-a-time sample design and GPS location data for woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) to assess one common species-distribution model: a resource selection function. Our measures of sensitivity included change in coefficient values, prediction success, and the area of mapped habitats following the systematic introduction of geographic error and bias in occurrence data, thematic misclassification of resource maps, and variation in model design. Results suggested that error, bias and model variation have a large impact on the direct interpretation of coefficients. Prediction success and definition of important habitats were less responsive to the perturbations we introduced to the baseline model. Model coefficients, prediction success, and area of ranked habitats were most sensitive to positional error in species locations followed by sampling bias, misclassification of resources, and variation in model design. We recommend that researchers report, and practitioners consider, levels of error and bias introduced to predictive species-distribution models. Formal sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are the most effective means for evaluating and focusing improvements on input data and considering the range of values possible from imperfect models.     

An animal movement model incorporating home range and habitat selection

Wildlife biologists are often interested in how an animal uses space and the habitat resources within that space. We propose a single model that estimates an animal’s home range and habitat selection parameters within that range while accounting for the inherent autocorrelation in frequently sampled telemetry data. The model is applied to brown bear telemetry data in southeast Alaska. This article is based on a portion of this author’s Ph.D. dissertation completed in 2003 at the University of Iowa.     

Spatio-temporal ranging behaviour and its relevance to foraging strategies in wide-ranging wolverines

Conservation of carnivores in an increasingly changing environment is greatly helped by understanding the decision-making processes underlying habitat patch choice. Foraging theory may give us insight into spatio-temporal search patterns and consequent foraging decisions that carnivores make in heterogeneous and fluctuating environments. Constraints placed on central-place foragers in particular are likely to influence both foraging decisions and related spatio-temporal movement patterns. We used discrete choice models to investigate the spatio-temporal ranging behaviour of GPS collared female wolverines (Gulo gulo) with dependent cubs in south-central Norway. Activity patterns, home range use and selection for elevation were analyzed in relation to spatial and temporal covariates (daily and seasonal) and related to different foraging behaviours. In spring, wolverines showed restricted movement patterns around rendezvous sites at high elevations by day, whereas during the night animals were active at lower elevations. Over the summer, this daily pattern in intensity of use diminished and their overall selectiveness for elevation decreased as cubs grow more mobile and independent. At the onset of autumn, wolverines showed intensive use of the profitable forest-alpine tundra ecotone. We argue that reproducing wolverines deployed a foraging strategy attuned to altering their movement patterns throughout the summer to address a continuous, but diminishing, trade-off between providing both food and shelter for their offspring. Incorporating spatially and temporally explicit activity patterns and home range use in discrete choice resource selection models thus enhances the understanding of the motives behind wolverine resource utilization in space and time. Such knowledge may provide guidance to managers designing regional-scale zoning, in order to facilitate carnivore recovery and to minimize conflicts with human activities.     

Choice set formation for outdoor destinations: The role of motivations and preference discrimination in site selection for the management of public expenditures on protected areas

Effective public expenditure currently dominates the management focus of many protected areas. This calls for explicit modeling of constraints and motivations that, respectively, obstruct and stimulate visits to selected outdoor destinations. Choice set formation is the result of screening and/or inclusion of specific sites (alternatives) to form the set of sites considered in real choices. Evidence shows that the omission of a structural representation of choice set formation is harmful to econometric inference. Yet, the literature has largely ignored the underlying behavioral phenomenon. We show, using a discrete choice experiment involving selection among seven recreational sites in an Italian national park, that choice set formation is behaviorally relevant, even after controlling for preference discrimination. Motivations (why visit?) are important determinants of preliminary site screening for choice set inclusion, as well as site selection, justifying the additional value of such modeling extension.     

An approach to evaluation of sustainability for Guangzhou's urban ecosystem

Guangzhou has ambitions to build itself into a world class metropolis by 2010. Sustainable development is the only way to achieve this magnificent goal. Based on the ecological perspective of sustainable development and the principles of ecosystem integrity, this paper develops an approach for evaluation of sustainable development in Guangzhou between 1986 and 1995. A hierarchical evaluation system of four tiers of sustainability indicators was established. Using the method of fuzzy multistage synthetic evaluation, sustainability development level index, QIx, was calculated for the indicators at the B, C, D, and E tiers. Development stages were identified based on these index values. The coordination degree among the economic, social, and natural subsystems was also computed. Further, an overall sustainability index for each year was computed by combining the development level index and the coordination degree. It was found that the urban ecosystem in Guangzhou had generally become more sustainable, in spite of fluctuations in coordination degree. The development level index of the economic subsystem has surpassed that of social and natural subsystems since 1995. Appropriate measures must be taken to ensure coordinated development among the subsystems for the purpose of sustainable development.     

Modelling the responses of wildlife to human disturbance: An evaluation of alternative management scenarios for black-crowned night-herons

The impact of anthropogenic disturbance on wildlife is increasing becoming a source of concern as the popularity of outdoor recreation rises. There is now more pressure on site managers to simultaneously ensure the continued persistence of wildlife and provide recreational opportunities. Using ‘Simulation of Disturbance Activities’, a model designed to investigate the impact of recreational disturbance on wildlife, we demonstrate how a simulation modelling approach can effectively inform such management decisions. As an example, we explored the implications of various design and management options for a proposed recreational area containing a historic breeding bird colony. By manipulating the proximity, orientation and intensity of recreation, we were able to evaluate the impact of recreational activities on the behaviour of black-crowned night-heron nestlings (Nycticorax nycticorax). Using a classification and regression tree (CART) procedure to analyse simulation output, we explored the dynamics of multiple strategies in concert. Our analysis revealed that there are inherent advantages in implementing multiple strategies as opposed to any single strategy. Nestlings were not disturbed by recreation when bird-watching facility placement (proximity and orientation) and type were considered in combination. In comparison, proximity alone only led to a <10% reduction in disturbance. Thus we demonstrate how simulation models based on customised empirical data can bridge the gap between field studies and active management, enabling users to test novel management scenarios that are otherwise logistically difficult. Furthermore, such models potentially have broad application in understanding human-wildlife interactions (e.g. exploring the implications of roads on wildlife, probability of bird strikes around airports, etc.). They therefore represent a valuable decision-making tool in the ecological design of urban infrastructures.