Relation between Engraulis anchoita concentrations and presence of Merluccius hubbsi on the patagonian continental shelf

During the second cruise of the R.V. Professor Siedlecki in spring and summer, 1973, concentrations of anchovy and hake were reported in the area off Golfo Nuevo and the Bay of San Mathias, Argentina. Observations were mainly made with the help of acoustic equipment. The echo recordings revealed an interrelationship between the presence of anchovy schools and the appearance of hake concentrations. This paper demonstrates that this relation is trophic in character.     

Deriving state-and-transition models from an image series of grassland pattern dynamics

We present how state-and-transition models (STMs) may be derived from image data, providing a graphical means of understanding how ecological dynamics are driven by complex interactions among ecosystem events. A temporal sequence of imagery of fine scale vegetation patterning was acquired from close range photogrammetry (CRP) of 1 m quadrats, in a long term monitoring project of Themeda triandra (Forsskal) grasslands in north western Australia. A principal components scaling of image metrics calculated on the imagery defined the state space of the STM, and thereby characterised the different patterns found in the imagery. Using the state space, we were able to relate key events (i.e. fire and rainfall) to both the image data and aboveground biomass, and identified distinct ecological ‘phases’ and ‘transitions’ of the system. The methodology objectively constructs a STM from imagery and, in principle, may be applied to any temporal sequence of imagery captured in any event-driven system. Our approach, by integrating image data, addresses the labour constraint limiting the extensive use of STMs in managing vegetation change in arid and semiarid rangelands.     

Estimating the critical phosphorus loading of shallow lakes with the ecosystem model PCLake: Sensitivity, calibration and uncertainty

There is a vast body of knowledge that eutrophication of lakes may cause algal blooms. Among lakes, shallow lakes are peculiar systems in that they typically can be in one of two contrasting (equilibrium) states that are self-stabilizing: a ‘clear’ state with submerged macrophytes or a ‘turbid’ state dominated by phytoplankton. Eutrophication may cause a switch from the clear to the turbid state, if the P loading exceeds a critical value. The ecological processes governing this switch are covered by the ecosystem model PCLake, a dynamic model of nutrient cycling and the biota in shallow lakes. Here we present an extensive analysis of the model, using a three-step procedure. (1) A sensitivity analysis revealed the key parameters for the model output. (2) These parameters were calibrated on the combined data on total phosphorus, chlorophyll-a, macrophytes cover and Secchi depth in over 40 lakes. This was done by a Bayesian procedure, giving a weight to each parameter setting based on its likelihood. (3) These weights were used for an uncertainty analysis, applied to the switchpoints (critical phosphorus loading levels) calculated by the model. The model was most sensitive to changes in water depth, P and N loading, retention time and lake size as external input factors, and to zooplankton growth rate, settling rates and maximum growth rates of phytoplankton and macrophytes as process parameters. The results for the ‘best run’ showed an acceptable agreement between model and data and classified nearly all lakes to which the model was applied correctly as either ‘clear’ (macrophyte-dominated) or ‘turbid’ (phytoplankton-dominated). The critical loading levels for a standard lake showed about a factor two uncertainty due to the variation in the posterior parameter distribution. This study calculates in one coherent analysis uncertainties in critical phosphorus loading, a parameter that is of great importance to water quality managers.     

Recruitment and attrition of associated plants under a shading crop canopy: Model selection and calibration

Associated plant and animal diversity provides ecosystem services within crop production systems. The importance of the maintenance or restoration of diversity is therefore increasingly acknowledged. Here we study the population dynamics of associated annual plants (‘weeds’) during the growth of a crop in a season and introduce a minimal model to characterize the recruitment and attrition of the associated plants under the influence of shading by the crop. A mechanistically based, logistic, light interception model was parameterized with light interception measurements in two single crops (barley and rye) and in mixtures of these cereals with peas. Population dynamics data were collected for the annuals Papaver rhoeas, Centaurea cyanus, Chrysanthemum segetum, and Misopates orontium. A minimal population dynamics model was identified for each annual plant species, using system identification techniques as model selection and calibration.     

Rapid changes in growth,condition, size and age of small pelagic fish in the Mediterranean

Since 2007, the ecosystem of the Gulf of Lions has shifted to a different regime, characterised by a low anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus) biomass and a remarkably high sprat (Sprattus sprattus) biomass. Surprisingly, the abundance and recruitment of anchovy and sardine remained high. To understand which processes (bottom-up or top-down control, etc.) could have caused this shift, we studied the changes in body condition, growth and size and age of anchovy, sardine and sprat over 1984–1985 and 1992–2012, using data from scientific surveys. The annual age structure of anchovy and sardine was estimated using Bayesian mixture models based on size frequency data with priors on the age–length relationship derived from independent otolith readings. The results indicated periods during which anchovy and sardine were in an average (1992–2004), good (2005–2007) or poor (2008–2012) overall state of condition. For sardine, the shift towards smaller fish observed during these past 4 years was explained by a combination of slower growth and the disappearance of older individuals (ages 2+). Despite the increase in biomass of sprat since 2008, indications were found that sprat was also smaller than in the past. As growth and condition decreased and overexploitation has not been documented or suspected for those three species in this area, we propose that the current decline in sardine and anchovy biomass could be due to qualitative and/or quantitative modifications in the planktonic production (i.e. a bottom-up control) or mass mortalities of adults due to an epidemic disease.     

Anchovy (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Engraulis encrasicolus</Emphasis>) egg density measurements in the Bay of Biscay: evidence for the spatial variation in egg density with sea surface salinity

Knowledge of the pelagic vertical distribution of fish eggs is central for several aspects of fisheries science including fisheries recruitment and egg production studies. In modelling egg vertical distributions, variation in fish egg density is an important issue. Though variation in egg density between individual eggs has been reported, evidence for significant spatial variation in egg density is novel. The present study provides evidence that egg density of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) varies spatially across spawning sites in the Bay of Biscay, depending on the regional scale variation in sea water properties due to river discharge. We measured the density of the eggs using a density gradient column at 17 stations in 2005 and 2006 as well as their diameter. At station, the variability in the individual egg density was statistically distributed according to a Gaussian probability function. Significant variation in the mean egg density was observed across stations. Mean egg density displayed a significant correlation with sea surface salinity. Results are discussed in light of the mechanisms determining the egg density.     

Information processing in models for density-dependent emigration: A comparison

Density-dependent emigration has been recognized as a fitness enhancing strategy. Yet, especially in the modelling literature there is no consensus about how density-dependent emigration should quantitatively be incorporated into metapopulation models. In this paper we compare the performance of five different dispersal strategies (defined by the functional link between density and emigration probability). Four of these strategies are based on published functional relationships between local population density and emigration probability, one assumes density-independent dispersal. We use individual-based simulations of time-discrete metapopulation dynamics and conduct evolution experiments for a broad range of values for dispersal mortality and environmental stochasticity. For each set of these conditions we analyze the evolution of emigration rates in ‘monoculture experiments’ (with only one type of dispersal strategy used by all individuals in the metapopulation) as well as in selection experiments that allow a pair-wise comparison of the performance of each functional type. We find that a single-parameter ‘asymptotic threshold’ strategy - derived from the marginal value theorem - with a decelerating increase of emigration rate with increasing population density, out-competes any other strategy, i.e. density-independent emigration, a ‘linear threshold’ strategy and a flexible three-parameter strategy. Only when environmental conditions select for extremely high emigration probabilities (close to one), strategies may perform approximately equally. A simple threshold strategy derived for the case of continuous population growth performs even worse than the density-independent strategy. As the functional type of the dispersal function implemented in metapopulation models may severely affect predictions concerning the survival of populations, range expansion, or community changes we clearly recommend to carefully select adequate functions to model density-dependent dispersal.     

Size matters: variation in the diet of chick and adult crested terns

We investigated ontogenetic, temporal and spatial patterns in the composition and size of prey in the diet of crested terns, Sterna bergii. Diet analyses indicated that crested terns are a generalist predator on surface-schooling clupeids (Australian anchovy Engraulis australis, sardine Sardinops sagax and blue sprat Spratelloides robustus), Degens leatherjacket Thamnaconus degeni, southern sea garfish Hyporhamphus melanochir, Australian herring Arripis georgianus, slender bullseye Parapriacanthus elongatus and barracouta Thyrsites atun. Ontogenetic differences in prey size indicated that adults are constrained in their foraging behaviour during the early chick-provisioning period by the need to self feed and select smaller prey that can be ingested by their chicks. Chicks consumed significantly higher proportions of clupeids than adults, which consumed mainly Degens leatherjackets and barracouta, suggesting that adults may select higher quality prey for their chicks compared to what they consume themselves. Spatial differences in prey composition were driven by differing proportions of sardine, Australian anchovy and Degens leatherjacket and could reflect local differences in the abundances of these prey. The size of prey taxa consumed by adults also reflected a North–South gradient in prey size. The large component of juvenile sardine in the diet of crested terns suggests future dietary measures may inform fisheries managers about changes in local juvenile sardine abundance. These data could assist in highlighting any fishery-related decreases in sardine recruitment and help ensure commercial fishing practices address principals of Ecologically Sustainable Development developed for Australian fisheries.     

Regulatory attitudes and environmental innovation in a model combining internal and external R&D

The extent to which environmental regulatory institutions are either ‘green’ or ‘brown’ impacts not just the intensity of regulation at any moment, but also the incentives for the development of new pollution-control technologies. We set up a strategic model of R&D in which a polluter can deploy technologies developed in-house, or license technologies developed by specialist outsiders (an ‘eco-industry’). Polluters exert R&D effort and may even develop redundant technologies to improve the terms on which they procure technology from outside. We find that, while regulatory bias has an ambiguous impact on the best-available technology, strategic delegation to systematically biased regulators can improve social welfare.     

Trunk trails and the searching strategy of a leaf-cutter ant,Atta colombica

Summary Atta colombica uses chemical mass recruitment that allows the rapid exploitation of resources. Most foragers thus search only within patches. Accumulation of extra foragers at patches results in sampling of alternate food items and area-restricted search as patch resources are depleted.Individual workers have a higher probability of removing a leaf fragment the earlier they arrive at a bait. Workers that arrive when much of the resource is gone travel further on the bait (within the patch) but do not spend significantly more time at the patch. They give up after 50–80s.Foraging effort is centered on the extensive trail system, not on the nest a predicted by time and energy foraging models. Search effort is also trail centered. The probability that an item will be discovered decreases with distance from the trail and increasing litter depth. Trail traffic and trail quality together mave no significant effect although this may be because they act antagonistically.Economic considerations predict that trials should be built to high quality and very productive sites. If trails are built as a result of recruitment and recruitment reflects patch quality and productivity, characteristics of forage sites are physically embodied in the trail system.Leaf cutter foraging is better understood as a long term optimization that effectively exploits resources over the lifetime of the colony than as prudent predation that husbands resources.     

Dynamics of de novo vitellogenesis in fish with indeterminate fecundity: an application of oocyte packing density theory to European anchovy, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Engraulis encrasicolus</Emphasis>

De novo vitellogenesis is common among teleosts; however, its dynamics and the timing of batch recruitment are poorly understood. In this study, we combine a suite of methods and theories in fish reproductive biology (oocyte packing density, stereology, ovarian allometry, oocyte size frequencies and postovulatory follicle [POF] ageing) to reconstruct the steps and timing of batch recruitment in European anchovy. Using general linear modelling to standardize oocyte numbers, we demonstrate that the fractions of primary growth, cortical alveoli and vitellogenic oocytes in the ovary are relatively stable in females with migratory nucleus oocytes (MN) or with POFs 1 and 2 days old (POF-1 and POF-2), but they change abruptly at hydration. These results imply that batch recruitment in European anchovy occurs in pulses of very short duration (less than a day). The standing crop of vitellogenic oocytes in MN, POF-1 and POF-2 females equals the number of eggs contained in two mature batches.     

Is there a double-dividend from anti-sprawl policies?

This paper examines the welfare effects of anti-sprawl policies, such as development tax, in a simple spatial explicit urban model with two market failures - urban decline at the city core and underprovision of open space amenities at the urban fringe - and pre-existing distortionary property tax, used to fund public services and improvements to mitigate urban decline. Consistent with prior double-dividend literature, there is a tax interaction effect that occurs between the development tax and the pre-existing property tax. However, there are two fundamental differences between the tax interaction effect identified here and that of prior literature. Ours one has two components: First, there is a cost-side tax interaction effect that is ‘spatially’ concentrated at the urban fringe, as only agents at the urban fringe alter their behavior in response to the development tax. Second, there is also a benefit-side tax interaction effect, as increases in open space at the urban fringe are capitalized into housing prices throughout the city. In contrast to prior literature, we find that the empirical importance of the combined tax interaction effect is of substantially less importance and, as a consequence, the likelihood of a ‘double-dividend’ is higher than in prior studies. Further, we show that the development tax should be part of the local tax system, even in the absence of open space benefits.     

Maximum feasible distance of windborne cross-pollination in Brassica napus: A ‘mass budget’ model

A theory of gene dispersal by wind pollination can make an important contribution to understanding the viability and evolution of important plant groups in the Earth's changing landscape and it can be applied to evaluate concerns about the spread of engineered genes from genetically modified (GM) crops into conventional varieties via windborne pollen. Here, we present a model of cross-pollination between plant populations due to the wind. We perform a ‘mass budget’ of pollen by accounting for the number of pollen grains from release in the source population, dispersal from the source to the sink population by the wind, and deposition on receptive surfaces in the sink population. Our model can be parameterised for any wind-pollinated species, but we apply it to Brassica napus (oilseed rape or canola) to investigate the threat posed by wind pollination to GM confinement in agriculture. Specifically, we calculate the maximum feasible distance at which a particular level of windborne gene dispersal could be attained. This is equivalent to the separation distance between populations or fields required to achieve a given threshold of gene dispersal or adventitious GM presence. As required, model predictions of the upper bounds on levels of wind-mediated gene dispersal exceed observations from a wide range of published studies. For a level of gene dispersal below 0.9%, which is the EU threshold for GM adventitious presence, we predict that the maximum feasible distance for agricultural fields of B. napus is 1000 m, regardless of field shape and direction of prevailing winds. For fields closer than 1000 m, our model results do not necessarily imply that the 0.9% threshold is likely to be breached, because in this instance we have conservatively set the values of parameters where current knowledge is limited. We also predict that gene dispersal is reduced by 50% when the lag in peak flowering between the source and sink populations is 13 days, and reduced by 90% when the lag is 24 days. We identify further measurements necessary to improve the accuracy of the model predictions.     

An integrated modeling framework for performing environmental assessments: Application to ecosystem services in the Albemarle-Pamlico basins (NC and VA, USA)

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency uses environmental models to inform rulemaking and policy decisions at multiple spatial and temporal scales. As decision-making has moved towards integrated thinking and assessment (e.g. media, site, region, services), the increasing complexity and interdisciplinary nature of modern environmental problems has necessitated a new generation of integrated modeling technologies. Environmental modelers are now faced with the challenge of determining how data from manifold sources, types of process-based and empirical models, and hardware/software computing infrastructure can be reliably integrated and applied to protect human health and the environment.In this study, we demonstrate an Integrated Modeling Framework that allows us to predict the state of freshwater ecosystem services within and across the Albemarle-Pamlico Watershed, North Carolina and Virginia (USA). The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation is a hardware and software parallel-computing interface with pre/post-processing analysis tools, including parameter estimation, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. In this application, five environmental models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities: the Soil Water Assessment Tool predicts watershed runoff; the Watershed Mercury Model simulates mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index model predicts physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator predicts fish growth and production, as well as exposure and bioaccumulation of toxic substances (e.g., mercury).Using this Framework, we present a baseline assessment of two freshwater ecosystem services-water quality and fisheries resources-in headwater streams throughout the Albemarle-Pamlico. A stratified random sample of 50 headwater streams is used to draw inferences about the target population of headwater streams across the region. Input data is developed for a twenty-year baseline simulation in each sampled stream using current land use and climate conditions. Monte Carlo sampling (n = 100 iterations per stream) is also used to demonstrate some of the Framework's experimental design and data analysis features. To evaluate model performance and accuracy, we compare initial (i.e., uncalibrated) model predictions (water temperature, dissolved oxygen, fish density, and methylmercury concentration within fish tissue) against empirical field data. Finally, we ‘roll-up’ the results from individual streams, to assess freshwater ecosystem services at the regional scale.     

A general bioeconomic simulation model for annual-crop marine fisheries

A generalized bioeconomic simulation model of annual-crop marine fisheries is described and its use in marine fisheries management is demonstrated. The biological submodel represents the recruitment of new organisms into the fishery, the movement of organisms from one fishing area to another and from one depth to another, the growth of organisms and the mortality of organisms resulting both from natural causes and from fishing. The economic submodel represents the fishing effort exerted on each resource species, the monetary costs of fishing, the value of the harvest and the rent (or excess profits) to the fishery.Basic dynamics of the model results from changes in the number of organisms in the fishery over time, which can be summarized as a set of difference equations of the general form ΔN/Δt = R + I ? E ? M ? F where ΔN/Δt is the net change in number of organisms in the fishery over time, R is recruitment, I is immigration, E is emigration, M is natural mortality and F is fishing mortality. R is a driving variable, whereas I, E, M and F are functions of the state of the system at any given point in time. The model can be run in a deterministic or stochastic mode. Values for parameters affecting rates of recruitment, movement, growth, natural mortality and fishing mortality can be selected from uniform, triangular or normal distributions.Use of the model within a fisheries-management framework is demonstrated by evaluating several management alternatives for the pink shrimp (Penaeus duorarum) fishery on the Tortugas grounds in the Gulf of Mexico. Steps involved in use of the model, including parameterization, validation, sensitivity analysis and stochastic simulations of management policies, are explained.     

Interannual fluctuations in acoustic biomass estimates and in landings of small pelagic fish populations in relation to hydrology in the Strait of Sicily

The main results of research work carried out since 1998 with regard to the application of hydro-acoustic technologies for the evaluation of biomass and distribution of small pelagic fish species off the southern coast of Sicily are presented, taking into account information from hydrology and from ecology of the fish populations targeted. The biomass estimates and the population‐density charts presented concern the two main species, i.e. sardine Sardina pilchardus (Walbaum, 1792) and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus (Linnaeus, 1758). Both the sardine and anchovy populations experienced large inter-annual fluctuations, with biomass estimates ranging from 6000 to over 36,000 tonnes (t) (sardine) and from about 7000 to 23,000 t (anchovy). Acoustic estimates are largely consistent with landings recorded in Sciacca (the main fishing port for small pelagic species in the study area) during the year following the evaluation surveys. In addition, trends in sardine and anchovy biomass estimates appears to be negatively correlated with the mean sea surface temperature calculated over the time intervals January–September (sardine) and June–November (anchovy) of the preceding year, which correspond to larval and juvenile growth periods of target species. Observed patterns would suggest the importance of enrichment processes relevant to the survival of early stages, so determining recruitment success and finally higher population sizes.     

Fish population dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

Small fishes in seasonally flooded environments such as the Everglades are capable of spreading into newly flooded areas and building up substantial biomass. Passive drift cannot account for the rapidity of observed population expansions. To test the ‘reaction-diffusion’ mechanism for spread of the fish, we estimated their diffusion coefficient and applied a reaction-diffusion model. This mechanism was also too weak to account for the spatial dynamics. Two other hypotheses were tested through modeling. The first—the ‘refuge mechanism’—hypothesizes that small remnant populations of small fishes survive the dry season in small permanent bodies of water (refugia), sites where the water level is otherwise below the surface. The second mechanism, which we call the ‘dynamic ideal free distribution mechanism’ is that consumption by the fish creates a prey density gradient and that fish taxis along this gradient can lead to rapid population expansion in space. We examined the two alternatives and concluded that although refugia may play an important role in recolonization by the fish population during reflooding, only the second, taxis in the direction of the flooding front, seems capable of matching empirical observations. This study has important implications for management of wetlands, as fish biomass is an essential support of higher trophic levels.     

Geographical variations in the trophic ecology of Japanese anchovy, Engraulis japonicus, inferred from carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios

Carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios of Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) and their stomach contents were examined and compared among various regions around Japan. Geographical variations in the isotope ratios were found between inshore and Pacific offshore regions. While most of the anchovy samples had isotope ratios around −17.6‰ for δ¹³C and 10.0‰ for δ¹⁵N as median values, higher (more enriched) isotope values were found in the anchovy sampled from inshore regions. On the contrary, lower (more depleted) values were found mostly in the anchovy from the Pacific offshore region including the Kuroshio Extension and Kuroshio-Oyashio transition zones. Higher carbon isotope ratios in the inshore regions may reflect a carbon source from benthic primary producers in addition to phytoplankton possibly through the consumption of the larvae of benthic organisms such as bivalves or decapods, which were found in the stomach contents of the inshore anchovy. Variations in the nitrogen isotope ratio may reflect not only differences in the trophic level of prey species, but also variations in the baseline level of food webs. Stable isotope ratios are potentially a useful tool for understanding the stock/population structure and migration of anchovy. The present findings indicate the potential importance of the “inshore–offshore” variations in the biology of Japanese anchovy populations in the northwestern Pacific waters.