Integrating soil carbon cycling with that of nitrogen and phosphorus in the watershed model SWAT: Theory and model testing

In this paper we describe and test a sub-model that integrates the cycling of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed model. The core of the sub-model is a multi-layer, one-pool soil organic carbon (S_C) algorithm, in which the decomposition rate of S_C and input rate to S_C (through decomposition and humification of residues) depend on the current size of S_C. The organic N and P fluxes are coupled to that of C and depend on the available mineral N and P, and the C:N and N:P ratios of the decomposing pools. Tillage explicitly affects the soil organic matter turnover rate through tool-specific coefficients. Unlike most models, the turnover of soil organic matter does not follow first order kinetics. Each soil layer has a specific maximum capacity to accumulate C or C saturation (S_x) that depends on texture and controls the turnover rate. It is shown in an analytical solution that S_x is a parameter with major influence in the model C dynamics. Testing with a 65-yr data set from the dryland wheat growing region in Oregon shows that the model adequately simulates the S_C dynamics in the topsoil (top 0.3 m) for three different treatments. Three key model parameters, the optimal decomposition and humification rates and a factor controlling the effect of soil moisture and temperature on the decomposition rate, showed low uncertainty as determined by generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation. Nonetheless, the parameter set that provided accurate simulations in the topsoil tended to overestimate S_C in the subsoil, suggesting that a mechanism that expresses at depth might not be represented in the current sub-model structure. The explicit integration of C, N, and P fluxes allows for a more cohesive simulation of nutrient cycling in the SWAT model. The sub-model has to be tested in forestland and rangeland in addition to agricultural land, and in diverse soils with extreme properties such high or low pH, an organic horizon, or volcanic soils.     

A process-based population dynamics model to explore target and non-target impacts of a biological control agent

The risks and benefits associated with efforts to control invasive alien species using classical biological control are being subjected to increasing scrutiny. A process-based population dynamics model was developed to explore the interactions between a folivorous biological control agent, Cleopus japonicus, and its plant host Buddleja davidii. The model revealed that climate could have a significant impact upon the interactions between B. davidii and C. japonicus. At the coolest sites, the impact of C. japonicus on B. davidii was slowed, but it was still eventually capable of controlling populations of B. davidii. At the warmer sites where both B. davidii and C. japonicus grew faster, B. davidii succumbed rapidly to weevil damage. We hypothesise that barring an encounter with a natural enemy, C. japonicus will eventually be able to provide sustained control B. davidii throughout the North Island of New Zealand. The model scenarios illustrate the potential for the C. japonicus population to attain high densities rapidly, and to defoliate patches of B. davidii, creating the potential for spill-over feeding on non-target plants. The potential magnitude of this threat will depend partly on the climate suitability for C. japonicus, the pattern by which it migrates in response to a reduction in the available leaf resource, and the suitability of non-target plants as hosts. In all migration scenarios considered, the pattern of population growth and resource consumption by C. japonicus was exponential, with a strong tendency toward complete utilisation of resource patches more quickly at the warmer compared to colder sites. In addition to providing some useful hypotheses about the effects of climate on the biological control system, and the non-target risks, it also provides some insight into the mechanisms by which climate affects the system.     

Relevant scales of variability of the benthic allochthonous microalga Chrysophaeum taylorii

Chrysophaeum taylorii (Pelagophyceae) is an allochthonous benthic microalga recently recorded in the Mediterranean Sea. During summer, the occurrence of C. taylorii is usually visible to the naked eye due to the large amount of mucilage this species produces. Information on the spatio-temporal variability of this species and on the predictability of massive mucilage events is still scarce and requires to define ad hoc managing strategies of major bloom events. The aim of this work was to identify the relevant scales of variation in the abundance of C. taylorii abundance and to estimate the relative recurrence of its blooms, testing the hypothesis that mucilage was dependent on the cell density. The first approach was the identification of the most appropriate sampling procedure to estimate benthic cell abundance of C. taylorii. The second one was the estimation of the magnitude of variation in C. taylorii cell abundance attributable to each of several spatial (areas, sites, zones and replicates) and temporal scales (fortnights and years) in the Marine Protected Area of Tavolara Punta Coda Cavallo (Western Mediterranean Sea). The results indicate fortnight and year as the most relevant scales of variability in the cell abundance of C. taylorii and highlight the unimportance of small spatial scales (zone and replicates) to the species variability. The collected data also evidence the absence of a direct relationship between the cell density of C. taylorii and the production of mucilage. In conclusion, these results indicate that patterns in the cell abundance of C. taylorii vary notably depending on the considered scale and that future investigations on processes affecting its performance will need to consider the relevant scales of variation evidenced.     

Oxygen-binding properties of haemolymph from the benthic amphipod Monoporeia affinis from the Baltic

The Baltic benthic amphipod Monoporeia affinis (Lindström) has haemocyanin as a respiratory pigment. Haemocyanin constitutes ca. 90% of the total protein in the haemolymph. Oxygen affinity of the pigment is low, a P₅₀ of 4 kPa at pH?7.5 (6?°C). The Bohr factor (Δlog P₅₀/ΔpH) is also low, ?0.51, and the cooperativity coefficient, n₅₀, at P₅₀ is 1.5 to 2.5. The pigment characteristics point to a modest role of the haemocyanin, contrary to what could be expected for this sediment-living amphipod. It is suggested that physically dissolved oxygen is most important as oxygen supplier to the tissues.     

Coastal inundation in the north-eastern mediterranean coastal zone due to storm surge events

Low-elevation coastal areas and their populations are at risk during and after the appearance of a storm surge event. Coastal flooding as a result of storm surge events is investigated in this paper for a number of areas around the north-eastern (NE) Mediterranean coastal zone (Adriatic, Aegean and north Levantine seas). The sea level rise (SLR) due to storm surge events is examined for the period 2000?C2004. Wind data, atmospheric pressure and wave data for this period as well as in situ sea elevation measurements (from stations around the Mediterranean coasts) were used. Potential inundation zones were then identified using a 90-m horizontal resolution digital elevation model (DEM). At these zones, the sea surface elevations were calculated for the study period, using the collected data and a 2D storm surge simulation model (1/10^o??1/10^o) output, examining the sea level alteration in specific coastal areas, where in situ measurements are absent and are characterised as ??risky?? in inundation areas, due to their topography. In order to determine the level of storm track implication on major SLR incidents, the trajectories of the respective storm events were computed. The aim of this paper is to investigate the major storm surge events that appeared during the study period, identify the major ??risky?? costal regions along the north-eastern Mediterranean coast and determine their hazard level due to inundation caused by storm surge phenomena. The combination of the risk level determination of an area and the calculation of sea level alteration is an important tool in terms of predicting and protecting the coastal area from extreme meteorological incidents.     

Differential effects of temperature variability on the transmission of a marine parasite

Temperature variability is particularly pronounced in intertidal systems. The importance of considering this variability has been increasingly recognised, especially in the context of climate change and disease dynamics. Here, we investigated the effects of temperature variability on the transmission of the intertidal trematode Maritrema novaezealandensis. The experimental treatments were 15 °C (control), 15 + 5 °C daily, 15 + 10 °C every second day, 15 + 15 °C every third day (overall equal thermal loading), and a heat wave treatment (15 + 10 °C daily). Daily 6 h incubations were carried out corresponding to daytime low tides over a 12-day period. Effects on output of transmission stages (cercariae) from infected Zeacumantus subcarinatus snail hosts and transmission success of cercariae to Paracalliope novizealandiae amphipod hosts were quantified, as well as the survival of amphipods. Results showed differential effects on output and transmission success. The number of cercariae emerging was similar for treatments with equal thermal loading, but was substantially increased in the heat wave treatment. Transmission success was highest and comparable for the treatments with regular daily temperature increases (i.e. 15 + 5 °C and heat wave), compared to other treatments. Amphipod survival was not affected by temperature treatment directly, but by the number of parasites infecting an amphipod, as well as amphipod sex. These results demonstrate that cercarial output depends mostly on total thermal loading, whereas successful infection of amphipods is determined by total time above 15 °C. Repeated exposure to ~25 °C, as expected under a heat wave scenario, therefore increases both transmission pressure and success, and hence, the risk of parasite-induced mortality in amphipods.     

Trophic diversity in amphipods within a temperate eelgrass ecosystem as determined by gut contents and C and N isotope analysis

A conjoint analysis of gut contents and stable C and N isotopes was applied to determine the main food sources and feeding habits of dominant amphipods in an eelgrass bed (Zostera marina) in Gwangyang Bay, Korea. Gut content observations demonstrated that, while Gammaropsis japonicus and Jassa slatteryi are herbivorous, feeding on epiphytes and detritus, Pontogeneia rostrata and Monocorophium acherusicum are omnivorous, feeding on mesozooplankton fragments and detritus. Stable isotope data confirmed that epiphytes, detritus, and mesozooplankton fragments were major food sources for amphipods in the eelgrass bed. Isotopic mixing model calculations clearly showed an interspecific difference in diet composition. A high isotopic dissimilarity between amphipod taxa demonstrated interspecific trophic diversity, reflecting their herbivorous (G. japonicus and J. slatteryi) and omnivorous (P. rostrata and M. acherusicum) feeding habits and confirmed the detrivorous feeding habits of caprellids. Such trophic diversity at interspecific level of the amphipod species indicates that they use different food resources within their microhabitats and play species-specific functional roles as mediators in trophic pathways from producers to higher-level consumers of the eelgrass ecosystem. Finally, our findings suggest that information on the species-specific trophic ecology of amphipods is needed to better understand their potential role in the trophic dynamics and carbon flow of seagrass bed ecosystems.     

Application of a Random Forest algorithm to predict spatial distribution of the potential yield of Ruditapes philippinarum in the Venice lagoon, Italy

We present a modelling framework that combines machine learning techniques and Geographic Information Systems to support the management of an important aquaculture species, Manila clam (Ruditapes philippinarum). We use the Venice lagoon (Italy), the first site in Europe for the production of R. philippinarum, to illustrate the potential of this modelling approach. To investigate the relationship between the yield of R. philippinarum and a set of environmental factors, we used a Random Forest (RF) algorithm. The RF model was tuned with a large data set (n = 1698) and validated by an independent data set (n = 841). Overall, the model provided good predictions of site-specific yields and the analysis of marginal effect of predictors showed substantial agreement among the modelled responses and available ecological knowledge for R. philippinarum. The most influent environmental factors for yield estimation were percentage of sand in the sediment, salinity, and water depth. Our results agree with findings from other North Adriatic lagoons. The application of the fitted RF model to continuous maps of all the environmental variables allowed estimates of the potential yield for the whole basin. Such a spatial representation enabled site-specific estimates of yield in different farming areas within the lagoon. We present a possible management application of our model by estimating the potential yield under the current farming distribution and comparing it to a proposed re-organization of the farming areas. Our analysis suggests a reduction of total yield is likely to result from the proposed re-organization.     

Analysis of annual fluctuations of C. nodosa in the Venice lagoon: Modeling approach

A simple simulation model was developed to describe the growth trends of Cymodocea nodosa (Ucria) Ascherson based on data sets from the Venice lagoon. The model reproduces the seasonal fluctuations in the above and belowground biomass and in shoot density. The modeling results are in good agreement with data on net production, growth rates and chemical–physical parameters of water. It was assumed that light and temperature are the most important factors controlling C. nodosa development, and that the growth was not limited by nutrient availability. The aim was to simulate biomass production as a function of external forcing variables (light, water temperature) and internal control (plant density). A series of simulation experiments were performed with the basic model showing that among the most important phenomena affecting C. nodosa growth are: (1) inhibition of production and recruitment of new shoots by high temperature and (2) light attenuation due to seasonal fluctuation.     

Evaluating weather effects on interannual variation in net ecosystem productivity of a coastal temperate forest landscape: A model intercomparison

Forest productivity is strongly affected by seasonal weather patterns and by natural or anthropogenic disturbances. However weather effects on forest productivity are not currently represented in inventory-based models such as CBM-CFS3 used in national forest C accounting programs. To evaluate different approaches to modelling these effects, a model intercomparison was conducted among CBM-CFS3 and four process models (ecosys, CN-CLASS, Can-IBIS and 3PG) over a 2500 ha landscape in the Oyster River (OR) area of British Columbia, Canada. The process models used local weather data to simulate net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and net biome productivity (NBP) from 1920 to 2005. Other inputs used by the process and inventory models were generated from soil, land cover and disturbance records. During a period of intense disturbance from 1928 to 1943, simulated NBP diverged considerably among the models. This divergence was attributed to differences among models in the sizes of detrital and humus C stocks in different soil layers to which a uniform set of soil C transformation coefficients was applied during disturbances. After the disturbance period, divergence in modelled NBP among models was much smaller, and attributed mainly to differences in simulated NPP caused by different approaches to modelling weather effects on productivity. In spite of these differences, age-detrended variation in annual NPP and NEP of closed canopy forest stands was negatively correlated with mean daily maximum air temperature during July-September (T_amax) in all process models (R² = 0.4-0.6), indicating that these correlations were robust. The negative correlation between T_amax and NEP was attributed to different processes in different models, which were tested by comparing CO₂ fluxes from these models with those measured by eddy covariance (EC) under contrasting air temperatures (T_a). The general agreement in sensitivity of annual NPP to T_amax among the process models led to the development of a generalized algorithm for weather effects on NPP of coastal temperate coniferous forests for use in inventory-based models such as CBM-CFS3: NPP′ = NPP − 57.1 (T_amax − 18.6), where NPP and NPP′ are the current and temperature-adjusted annual NPP estimates from the inventory-based model, 18.6 is the long-term mean daily maximum air temperature during July-September, and T_amax is the mean value for the current year. Our analysis indicated that the sensitivity of NPP to T_amax was nonlinear, so that this algorithm should not be extrapolated beyond the conditions of this study. However the process-based methodology to estimate weather effects on NPP and NEP developed in this study is widely applicable to other forest types and may be adopted for other inventory based forest carbon cycle models.     

Modelling the effects of green macroalgae blooms on the population dynamics of Cyathura carinata (Crustacea: Isopoda) in an eutrophied estuary

A population dynamics model was developed to simulate the effects of benthic macroalgae blooms (mostly Enteromorpha spp.) on the productivity of Cyathura carinata (Crustacea: Isopoda), a possible keystone species in the benthic communities of the Mondego estuary. The model describes C. carinata population dynamics, as well as the relationships between Enteromorpha biomass, Enteromorpha decaying rates, organic matter content in the sediments and detritus consumption by C. carinata, a detritic feeder. Model results support the idea that seasonal blooms of Enteromorpha determine a significant increase of organic matter content in the sediments, due to macroalgae decay, which initially contributes to enhance C. carinata consumption and growth rates, determining a significant increase in the biomass. Nevertheless, later, following the algae bloom, C. carinata biomass decreases, and reaches its lowest value, close to 0, when the algae crash. This effect is probably related with strong anoxic conditions, especially during night, due to high algal decomposition rates. In accordance with the model, migration of new individuals from adjacent areas must occur in order to recolonise the area affected by the algae bloom. Therefore, it seems reasonable to conclude that macroalgae blooms that are limited in space may favour C. carinata populations, but extensive blooms affecting the whole area of distribution of this species will determine its disappearance.     

Impacts of changing frost regimes on Swedish forests: Incorporating cold hardiness in a regional ecosystem model

Understanding the effects of climate change on boreal forests which hold about 7% of the global terrestrial biomass carbon is a major issue. An important mechanism in boreal tree species is acclimatization to seasonal variations in temperature (cold hardiness) to withstand low temperatures during winter. Temperature drops below the hardiness level may cause frost damage. Increased climate variability under global and regional warming might lead to more severe frost damage events, with consequences for tree individuals, populations and ecosystems. We assessed the potential future impacts of changing frost regimes on Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) in Sweden. A cold hardiness and frost damage model were incorporated within a dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS. The frost tolerance of Norway spruce was calculated based on daily mean temperature fluctuations, corresponding to time and temperature dependent chemical reactions and cellular adjustments. The severity of frost damage was calculated as a growth-reducing factor when the minimum temperature was below the frost tolerance. The hardiness model was linked to the ecosystem model by reducing needle biomass and thereby growth according to the calculated severity of frost damage. A sensitivity analysis of the hardiness model revealed that the severity of frost events was significantly altered by variations in the hardening rate and dehardening rate during current climate conditions. The modelled occurrence and intensity of frost events was related to observed crown defoliation, indicating that 6-12% of the needle loss could be attributed to frost damage. When driving the combined ecosystem-hardiness model with future climate from a regional climate model (RCM), the results suggest a decreasing number and strength of extreme frost events particularly in northern Sweden and strongly increasing productivity for Norway spruce by the end of the 21st century as a result of longer growing seasons and increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. However, according to the model, frost damage might decrease the potential productivity by as much as 25% early in the century.     

Effects of local fisheries and ocean productivity on the northeastern Ionian Sea ecosystem

To better understand the effects of fisheries and ocean productivity on the northeastern Ionian Sea we constructed an Ecopath with Ecosim model with 22 functional groups. Data on biomass, production/biomass, consumption/biomass, and diet for each group were estimated or extrapolated from the literature. Fisheries landings and discards were also included. Temporal trajectories were simulated using Ecosim. The model was fitted with time-series data for the most important groups from 1964 to 2006. Simulations highlighted a decline of top predators and of most of the commercial species since the late 1970s. The model shows that the decline of fish resources was mainly caused by an intensive fishing pressure that occurred in the area until the end of the 1990s and also by changes in primary production that impacted the trajectories of the main functional groups. In particular, simulated changes through time in PP impacted the abundance trends of all the commercial species, showing a cascade-up effect through the ecosystem. The application of Ecopath with Ecosim was a useful tool for understanding the trends of the main functional groups of the northeastern Ionian Sea. The model underlined that management actions are needed to restore and protect target species including marine mammals, pelagic and demersal fishes. In particular, measures to reduce overfishing, illegal fishing activities and to respect existing legislations are in need. Moreover, the adoption of marine protected areas could be an effective management measure to guarantee prey survival and to sustain marine predators.     

Performance and validation of a coupled parallel ADCIRC–SWAN model for THANE cyclone in the Bay of Bengal

An accurate prediction of near-shore sea-state is imperative during extreme events such as cyclones required in an operational centre. The mutual interaction between physical processes such as tides, waves and currents determine the physical environment for any coastal region, and hence the need of a parallelized coupled wave and hydrodynamic model. The present study is an application of various state-of-art models such as WRF, WAM, SWAN and ADCIRC used to couple and simulate a severe cyclonic storm Thane that developed in the Bay of Bengal during December 2011. The coupled model (ADCIRC–SWAN) was run in a parallel mode on a flexible unstructured mesh. Thane had its landfall on 30 December, 2011 between Cuddalore and Pondicherry where in-situ observations were available to validate model performance. Comprehensive experiment on the impact of meteorological forcing parameters with two forecasted tracks derived from WRF model, and JTWC best track on the overall performance of coupled model was assessed. Further an extensive validation experiment was performed for significant wave heights and surface currents during Thane event. The significant wave heights measured along satellite tracks by three satellites viz; ENVISAT, JASON-1 and JASON-2, as well in-situ near-shore buoy observation off Pondicherry was used for comparison with model results. In addition, qualitative validation was performed for model computed currents with HF Radar Observation off Cuddalore during Thane event. The importance of WRF atmospheric model during cyclones and its robustness in the coupled model performance is highlighted. This study signifies the importance of coupled parallel ADCIRC–SWAN model for operational needs during extreme events in the North Indian Ocean.     

Modelling habitat overlap among sympatric mesocarnivores in southern Illinois,USA

Few researchers have developed large-scale habitat models for sympatric carnivore species. We created habitat models for red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), coyotes (Canis latrans) and bobcats (Lynx rufus) in southern Illinois, USA, using the Penrose distance statistic, remotely sensed landscape data, and sighting location data within a GIS. Our objectives were to quantify and spatially model potential habitat differences among species. Habitat variables were quantified for 1-km² buffered areas around mesocarnivore sighting locations. Following variable reduction procedures, five habitat variables (percentage of grassland patches, interspersion–juxtaposition of forest patches, mean fractal dimension of wetland patches and the landscape, and road density) were used for analysis. Only one variable differed (P < 0.05) between red fox and coyote sighting areas (road density) and bobcat and coyote sighting areas (mean fractal dimension of the landscape). However, all five variables differed between red fox and bobcat sighting areas, indicating considerable differences in habitat affiliation between this pair-group. Compared to bobcats, red fox sightings were affiliated with more grassland cover and larger grassland patches, higher road densities, lower interspersion and juxtaposition of forest patches, and lower mean fractal dimension of wetland patches. These differences can be explained by different life history requirements relative to specific cover types. We then used the Penrose distance statistic to create habitat models for red foxes and bobcats, respectively, based on the five-variable dataset. An independent set of sighting locations were used to validate these models; model fit was good with 65% of mesocarnivore locations within the top 50% of Penrose distance values. In general, red foxes were affiliated with mixtures of agricultural and grassland cover, whereas bobcats were associated with a combination of grassland, wetland, and forest cover. The greatest habitat overlap between red foxes and bobcats was found at the interface between forested areas and more open cover types. Our study provides insight into habitat overlap among sympatric mesocarnivores, and the distance-based modelling approach we used has numerous applications for modelling wildlife–habitat relationships over large scales.     

The effect of micrograzers on algal community structure in a coral reef microcosm

The effect of amphipod grazing on algal community structure was studied within a 75 l refuge tank connected to a 6500 l closed-system, coral reef microcosm. When amphipods (Ampithoe ramondi) were absent or present in low numbers, a high biomass of mostly filamentous algal species resulted, including Bryopsis hypnoides, Centroceras clavulatum, Ceramium flaccidum, Derbesia vaucheriaeformis, Enteromorpha prolifera, Giffordia rallsiae, and Polysiphonia havanensis. These microalgae disappeared when amphipod density increase beyond approximately 1 individual cm^-2 of tank surface. The macroalga Hypnea spinella germinated in the system in association with amphipod tube sites. H. spinella plants remained rare until filamentous species were eliminated by amphipod grazing. Feeding trials confirmed that H. spinella was protected from grazing by its size rather than a chemical defense strategy. The H. spinella community we observed is similar to the flora described on algal ridges where physical conditions exclude fish grazing. We suggest that amphipods and similar micrograzers are responsible for the algal community structure of these ridges. Caging experiments may be subject to similar effects from increased amphipod grazing on the algae. Introduction of fish that are amphipod predators into the refuge tank caused an increase in algal species diversity but total H. spinella growth rates fell from 25 g dry wt month^-1 to less than 8 g dry wt month^-1. We describe amphipod behavior in relation to changes in population density and food supply, and we stress the potential for increasing the productivity of commercial seaweeds through maintenance of appropriate amphipod species in mariculture facilities.     

Biochemical composition and trophic strategies of the amphipod Eurythenes gryllus at hadal depths (Atacama Trench,South Pacific)

Amphipods Eurythenes gryllus were collected at 7800?m depth in the Atacama Trench (South Pacific) for studying their biochemical composition (in terms of proteins, lipids and carbohydrates and fatty acid content) and to gather information on bioenergetic strategies and trophic habits of organisms living in this extreme environment. The effect of long-term formalin storage on the biochemical determinations was also determined. Proteins were the dominant biochemical class of organic compounds (39–53%D.W.), whereas carbohydrates accounted for a very small fraction (1–2%D.W.). Lipid concentrations of E. gryllus accounted for 7–18%D.W. and were much lower than those reported for other deep-sea amphipods. These differences are likely to be more dependent upon food availability in the Atacama Trench rather than upon temperature. Lipid composition of E. gryllus revealed the dominance of monounsaturated fatty acids with polyunsaturated fatty acids accounting for a very small fraction, suggesting that hadal amphipods are higher dependent upon lipid reserves than amphipods inhabiting at shallow depths. The ratio of C18:1Δ⁹ to C18:1Δ¹¹ was >11 confirming the necrophagous trophic habits of this hadal amphipod.     

Assessing the impact of biological control of Plutella xylostella through the application of Lotka–Volterra model

The Lotka–Volterra model was applied to the population densities of diamondback moth (DBM), Plutella xylostella (L.) and its exotic larval parasitoid Diadegma semiclausum (Hellen) data that was collected earlier by icipe's DBM biological control team. The collections were done for 15 months before the release and 36 months after release of the parasitoid in two areas; in Werugha, Coast Province of Kenya and Tharuni, Central Province of Kenya, respectively. For each area in pre- and post-release periods, we estimated Lotka–Volterra model parameters from the minimization of the loss function between the theoretical and experimental time-series datasets following the Nelder-Mead multidimensional method. The model estimated a reduction in the value of the steady state of DBM population from 4.86 to 2.17 in Werugha and from 6.11 to 3.76 and 3.45 (with and without exclusion of the time before D. semiclausum recovery) in Tharuni when transiting from the pre- and post-release periods, respectively. This change was a consequence of the newly introduced parasitoid, in the areas. The study presented a successful and detailed technique for non-linear model parameters restoration which was demonstrated by the correct mimicking of empirical datasets from the classical biological control with D. semiclausum, in different areas of Kenya. The applied model has measured the parasitoids impact on the DBM biological control through a quantitative estimate of the effectiveness of the newly introduced species D. semiclausum. These equations may therefore be used as tool for decision making in the implementation for such pests’ management system strategy.     

Modeling amphibian energetics, habitat suitability, and movements of western toads, Anaxyrus (=Bufo) boreas, across present and future landscapes

Effective conservation of amphibian populations requires the prediction of how amphibians use and move through a landscape. Amphibians are closely coupled to their physical environment. Thus an approach that uses the physiological attributes of amphibians, together with knowledge of their natural history, should be helpful. We used Niche Mapper™ to model the known movements and habitat use patterns of a population of Western toads (Anaxyrus (=Bufo) boreas) occupying forested habitats in southeastern Idaho. Niche Mapper uses first principles of environmental biophysics to combine features of topography, climate, land cover, and animal features to model microclimates and animal physiology and behavior across landscapes. Niche Mapper reproduced core body temperatures (T_c) and evaporation rates of live toads with average errors of 1.6 ± 0.4 °C and 0.8 ± 0.2 g/h, respectively. For four different habitat types, it reproduced similar mid-summer daily temperature patterns as those measured in the field and calculated evaporation rates (g/h) with an average error rate of 7.2 ± 5.5%. Sensitivity analyses indicate these errors do not significantly affect estimates of food consumption or activity. Using Niche Mapper we predicted the daily habitats used by free-ranging toads; our accuracy for female toads was greater than for male toads (74.2 ± 6.8% and 53.6 ± 15.8%, respectively), reflecting the stronger patterns of habitat selection among females. Using these changing to construct a cost surface, we also reconstructed movement paths that were consistent with field observations. The effect of climate warming on toads depends on the interaction of temperature and atmospheric moisture. If climate change occurs as predicted, results from Niche Mapper suggests that climate warming will increase the physiological cost of landscapes thereby limiting the activity for toads in different habitats.     

Long-term trend in substratum occupation by a clonal, carbonate bryozoan in a temperate rocky reef in times of thermal anomalies

Studies over time provide opportunities to detect variations in the spatial and temporal patterns of clonal organisms and measure changes on their population dynamics related to extreme events. We assessed population dynamics for a bryozoan species dominating a subtidal rocky reef at Tino Island, in the eastern Ligurian Sea (NW Mediterranean). Using 9 years of annual photosurveys (1997–2005), rapid decline in Pentapora fascialis colony cover was shown at 11 and 22 m depths following the anomalous warming events in 1999 and 2003. An 86 % reduction in live colony portion was found after the 1999 warming event (2.3 °C higher than normal), with larger colonies being most affected. Effects from the 2003 event were delayed, and gradual cover decline occurred during the following 2 years. At the “Shallow” photostations, none of the larger colonies (>1,000 cm²) survived after the first cover decline. Availability of new substrate after the 1999 disturbance resulted in enhanced recovery through new colony production. At the “Deep” photostations, the population structure did not change over the duration of the monitoring period showing the same monomodal structure and same dominant size class (50–500 cm²). In the 4 years following the first cover decline, the deeper population regained colony cover to levels similar to pre-disturbance level, showing a good resilience. This 9-year monitoring analysis provided the temporal resolution needed to detect changes occurring in the P. fascialis population and will contribute to the assessment of long-term changes on benthic populations suffering during recent decades from dramatic increases in extreme events.