Individual-based modeling of flooding and salinity effects on a coastal swamp forest

Coastal swamps are among the rapidly vanishing wetland habitats in Louisiana. Increased flooding, nutrient and sediment deprivation, and salt-water intrusion have been implicated as probable causes of the decline of coastal swamps. We developed a two-species individual-based forest succession model to compare the growth and composition of a cypress-tupelo swamp under various combinations of flooding intensity and salinity levels, using historical time-series of stage and salinity data as inputs. Our model simulates forest succession over 500 years by representing the growth, mortality, and reproduction of individual Taxodium distichum (baldcypress) and Nyssa aquatica (water tupelo) trees in a 1-km² spatial grid of 10 m × 10 m cells that vary in water levels and salinity through differences in elevation. We independently adjusted the elevations of each cell to obtain different grid-wide mean elevations and standard deviations of elevation; this affected the temporal and spatial pattern of flooding. We calibrated the model by adjusting selected parameters until averaged basal area, stem density and wood production rates under two different mean elevations (partially versus highly flooded) were qualitatively similar to comparable values reported for swamps in the literature. Corroboration involved comparing model predictions to four well-monitored contrasting habitat sites within the Maurepas Basin, Louisiana, USA. Model predictions of both species combined showed the same patterns among sites as the data, but the model overestimated wood production and the dominance of T. distichum. Exploratory simulations predicted that increased flooding leads to swamps with reduced basal areas and stem densities, while increased salinity resulted in lower basal areas at low salinity concentration (∼1-3 psu) and complete tree mortality at higher salinity concentrations (∼2-6 psu). Our model can provide insight into the succession dynamics of coastal swamps and information for the effective design of restoration actions.     

Tradeoffs between forestry resource and conservation values under alternate policy regimes: A spatial analysis of the western Canadian boreal plains

An important element of resource management and conservation is an understanding of the tradeoffs between marketed products, such as timber, and measures of environmental quality, such as biodiversity. In this paper, we develop an integrated economic-ecological spatial optimization model that we then apply to evaluate alternate forest policies on a 560,000 km² study region of managed boreal forest in Alberta and British Columbia, Canada. The integrated model incorporates dynamic forest sector harvesting, current levels of oil and gas sector development, coarse-filter or habitat-based old forest indicators, a set of empirical forest bird abundance models, and statistical models of the natural and current fire regimes. Using our integrated model, economic tradeoff curves, or production possibility frontiers, are developed to illustrate the cost of achieving coarse-filter targets by a set time (50 years) within a 100-year time horizon. We found levels of ecological indicators and economic returns from the timber industry could both be increased if spatial constraints imposed by the current policy environment were relaxed; other factors being equal, this implies current policy should be revised. We explore the production possibility frontier's relationship to the range of natural variation of old forest habitat, and show how this range can be used to guide choices of preferred locations along the frontier. We also show that coarse-filter constraints on the abundance of certain habitat elements are sufficient to satisfy some fine-filter objectives, expressed as the predicted abundances of various species of songbirds.     

A simulation model for projecting changes in salinity concentrations and species dominance in the coastal margin habitats of the Everglades

Sharp boundaries typically separate the salinity tolerant mangroves from the salinity intolerant hardwood hammock species, which occupy the similar geographical areas of southern Florida. Evidence of strong feedback between tree community-type and the salinity of the unsaturated (vadose) zone of the soil suggests that a severe disturbance that significantly tilts the salinity in the vadose zone might cause a shift from one vegetation type to the other. In this study, a model based upon the feedback dynamics between vegetation and salinity of the vadose zone of the soil was used to take account of storm surge events to investigate the mechanisms that by which this large-scale disturbance could affect the spatial pattern of hardwood hammocks and mangroves. Model simulation results indicated that a heavy storm surge that completely saturated the vadose zone at 30 ppt for 1 day could lead to a regime shift in which there is domination by mangroves of areas previously dominated by hardwood hammocks. Lighter storm surges that saturated the vadose zone at less than 7 ppt did not cause vegetation shifts. Investigations of model sensitivity analysis indicated that the thickness of the vadose zone, coupled with precipitation, influenced the residence time of high salinity in the vadose zone and therefore determined the rate of mangrove domination. The model was developed for a southern Florida coastal ecosystem, but its applicability may be much broader.     

Application of a Random Forest algorithm to predict spatial distribution of the potential yield of Ruditapes philippinarum in the Venice lagoon, Italy

We present a modelling framework that combines machine learning techniques and Geographic Information Systems to support the management of an important aquaculture species, Manila clam (Ruditapes philippinarum). We use the Venice lagoon (Italy), the first site in Europe for the production of R. philippinarum, to illustrate the potential of this modelling approach. To investigate the relationship between the yield of R. philippinarum and a set of environmental factors, we used a Random Forest (RF) algorithm. The RF model was tuned with a large data set (n = 1698) and validated by an independent data set (n = 841). Overall, the model provided good predictions of site-specific yields and the analysis of marginal effect of predictors showed substantial agreement among the modelled responses and available ecological knowledge for R. philippinarum. The most influent environmental factors for yield estimation were percentage of sand in the sediment, salinity, and water depth. Our results agree with findings from other North Adriatic lagoons. The application of the fitted RF model to continuous maps of all the environmental variables allowed estimates of the potential yield for the whole basin. Such a spatial representation enabled site-specific estimates of yield in different farming areas within the lagoon. We present a possible management application of our model by estimating the potential yield under the current farming distribution and comparing it to a proposed re-organization of the farming areas. Our analysis suggests a reduction of total yield is likely to result from the proposed re-organization.     

Spatial variability in soil water and salinity in Tamarix community in a semiarid saline region of the upper Yellow River北大核心CSCD

Tamarix is widely distributed in semiarid saline regions of the upper Yellow River. The community of Tamarix affects the spatial distribution of soil water and salinity. It is important to explore the dynamic response relationship of Tamarix community and spatial distribution of soil water and salinity in order to evaluate the effects of vegetation community construction and ecological restoration in this region. The natural Tamarix community in the secondary saline-alkali land of the Ningxia Yellow River Irrigation Area was investigated in July 2016. Classical statistics and geostatistics were used to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of soil water and salinity. The results showed that the soil water content was relatively low (1.98%-7.55%), whereas the soil salinity was high (average conductivity 10.28-25.38 mS/cm) in the study area. The variability coefficient range of soil water and salinity was 36.1%-83.7%, both with moderate variations. Furthermore, the variation degree of soil salinity decreased with the increase in soil depth. The soil water and salinity had obvious spatial structure characteristics, which was mainly affected by structural factors or structural factors associated with stochastic factors. The coefficients of nugget were 0.04%-49.88%, indicating the strong spatial correlation. The spatial distribution of soil water and salinity in Tamarix community showed a patchy pattern; the soil water and salinity distribution in the areas with high Tamarix growing density were considerably high. The correlation analysis showed that there was a positive correlation between soil water and salinity in the study area. In conclusion, soil water and salinity restrict the distribution and growth of Tamarix. Furthermore, the distribution and growth of Tamarix enhanced the spatial variability of soil water and salinity. Keywords. © 2018 Science Press. All rights reserved.     

Living in the front: Neomysis americana (Mysidacea) in the Río de la Plata estuary, Argentina-Uruguay

The Río de la Plata is one of the main estuarine systems of South America. It is characterized by a salt wedge regime, a well-developed bottom salinity front, and a maximum turbidity zone associated with it. We described, for the first time, the spatial distributional patterns of Neomysis americana, the most abundant mysid and the main food item for juvenile fishes in this estuary. We analyzed the link between mysid distribution and abundance and the bottom salinity gradient. A total of 242 plankton samples were taken from the Río de la Plata estuary in spring and fall between 1991 and 2001. Bottom salinity gradient was quantified from grids created on the basis of 348 oceanographic stations. The N. americana population was characterized by high abundances (up to 2500 ind. m⁻³), with juveniles, males, gravid and non-gravid females present in both spring and fall of different years. N. americana distribution followed the position of the bottom salinity front in different years and seasons. Pearson’s correlation analysis between mysid abundance and bottom salinity gradient confirmed the association of mysids with the bottom salinity front (maximum salinity gradient). No correlation was detected between mysid abundance and salinity per se or temperature (neither in spring nor in fall). We speculate that mysids concentrated at the front could take advantage of the high concentration of detrital material for feeding. The results of our work highlight the importance of the magnitude of salinity gradient for the ecological processes of a salt-wedge estuary like the Río de la Plata. The analysis of the spatial distribution of gradient values presented in this work also constitutes a useful tool to locate key ecological areas such as fronts.     

Incorporating anthropogenic variables into a species distribution model to map gypsy moth risk

This paper presents a novel methodology for multi-scale and multi-type spatial data integration in support of insect pest risk/vulnerability assessment in the contiguous United States. Probability of gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) establishment is used as a case study. A neural network facilitates the integration of variables representing dynamic anthropogenic interaction and ecological characteristics. Neural network model (back-propagation network [BPN]) results are compared to logistic regression and multi-criteria evaluation via weighted linear combination, using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) and a simple threshold assessment. The BPN provided the most accurate infestation-forecast predictions producing an AUC of 0.93, followed by multi-criteria evaluation (AUC = 0.92) and logistic regression (AUC = 0.86) when independently validating using post model infestation data. Results suggest that BPN can provide valuable insight into factors contributing to introduction for invasive species whose propagation and establishment requirements are not fully understood. The integration of anthropogenic and ecological variables allowed production of an accurate risk model and provided insight into the impact of human activities.     

Rookery Bay and Naples Bay circulation simulations: Applications to tides and fresh water inflow regulation

A three-dimensional, baroclinic numerical circulation model is applied to the combined Rookery Bay and Naples Bay estuary complex. We focus on two aspects of the model simulations: the tidal circulation, for which we have observations of sea level and currents at several stations spanning Rookery Bay, and the salinity variations, for which we have observations at one station. After establishing model veracity through quantitative comparisons with observations, we use the model to address salinity changes that could arise due to regulatory fresh water flow rate modifications. Two different sets of experiments are performed. The first considers the salinity changes in Rookery Bay by increasing the fresh water flow rates into Henderson Creek through the addition of either 1.4 m³/s or 2.8 m³/s to the ambient flow rates. The second considers the salinity changes in Naples Bay by decreasing the fresh water flow rates through the subtraction of 9.9 m³/s from the Golden Gate Canals’ ambient flow rates. All of these scenarios result in significant, quantifiable salinity changes within the Rookery Bay and Naples Bay estuary complexes, demonstrating the environmental management utility of using high resolution, three-dimensional, numerical circulation models, as applied herein, for assessing the water properties of complex, multi-connected estuarine systems.     

Optimization of ecosystem model parameters using spatio-temporal soil moisture information

Parameters in process-based terrestrial ecosystem models are often nonlinearly related to the water flux to the atmosphere, and they also change temporally and spatially. Therefore, for estimating soil moisture, process-based terrestrial ecosystem models inevitably need to specify spatially and temporally variant model parameters. This study presents a two-stage data assimilation scheme (TSDA) to spatially and temporally optimize some key parameters of an ecosystem model which are closely related to soil moisture. At the first stage, a simplified ecosystem model, namely the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS), is used to obtain the prior estimation of daily soil moisture. After the spatial distribution of 0–10 cm surface soil moisture is derived from remote sensing, an Ensemble Kalman Filter is used to minimize the difference between the remote sensing model results, through optimizing some model parameters spatially. At the second stage, BEPS is reinitialized using the optimized parameters to provide the updated model predictions of daily soil moisture. TSDA has been applied to an arid and semi-arid area of northwest China, and the performance of the model for estimating daily 0–10 cm soil moisture after parameter optimization was validated using field measurements. Results indicate that the TSDA developed in this study is robust and efficient in both temporal and spatial model parameter optimization. After performing the optimization, the correlation (r²) between model-predicted 0–10 cm soil moisture and field measurement increased from 0.66 to 0.75. It is demonstrated that spatial and temporal optimization of ecosystem model parameters can not only improve the model prediction of daily soil moisture but also help to understand the spatial and temporal variation of some key parameters in an ecosystem model and the corresponding ecological mechanisms controlling the variation.     

西南岩溶山区景观生态特征与景观生态建设

探讨了西南岩溶山区景观生态结构与功能以及景观生态过程的不同于其他区域的基本特征，尝试从景观角度认识西南岩溶区生态空间特性与演化过程。受地质地貌和土地利用的影响。西南岩溶山区景观基质脆弱、景观格局分异明显，具破碎化与景观结构粗粒化、景观动态变化范围大且速度快、整体退化明显的特点，以石漠化为特征的景观演化削弱了岩溶生态系统的生态服务功能。岩溶山区的景观生态建设须充分认识岩溶山区资源环境优势，充分利用当地的适生植物资源，协调生态效应和水文效应，促进水土资源的有效保持向高效利用发展，形成新的高效、和谐的人工自然景观。今后应把景观格局与生态过程结合起来、与人文因子和地学背景结合起来，加强小尺度的景观变化研究。     

The role of conjugation in the gene-individual-population relationships in increasing eco-exergy

The genotypic and phenotypic processes were incorporated into one system in the gene-individual-population relationships under the framework of Individual based models (IBMs). The gene types addressing different degrees of metabolic efficiency and toxin susceptibility were provided as attributes in the individuals. Subsequently ecological processes such as food competition and movement were allowed concurrently on the 2-D space to determine the suitable species adapted to the system. The integrative gene-individual-population model accordingly responded to gene exchanges between the neighboring individuals through conjugation. At a substantially low level of gene exchange, system heterogeneity increased to produce high levels of eco-exergy, being presented by species diversity and total population size in the system. The issues related to genetic and ecological effects in the integrative gene-individual-population relationships were further discussed.     

A box model of carrying capacity for suspended mussel aquaculture in Lagune de la Grande-Entrée,Iles-de-la-Madeleine,Québec

An object-oriented model of environment–mussel aquaculture interactions and mussel carrying-capacity within Lagune de la Grande-Entrée (GEL), Iles-de-la-Madeleine, Québec, was constructed to assist in development of sustainable mussel culture in this region. A multiple box ecosystem model for GEL tied to the output of a hydrodynamic model was constructed using Simile software, which has inherent ability to represent spatial elements and specify water exchange between modelled regions. Mussel growth and other field data were used for model validation. Plackett–Burman sensitivity analysis demonstrated that a variety of bioenergetic parameters of zooplankton and phytoplankton submodels were important in model outcomes. Model results demonstrated that mussel aquaculture can be further developed throughout the lagoon. At present culture densities, phytoplankton depletion is minimal, and there is little food limitation of mussel growth. Results indicated that increased stocking density of mussels in the existing farm will lead to decreased mass per individual mussel. Depending on the location of new farm emplacement within the lagoon, implementation of new aquaculture sites either reduced mussel growth in the existing farm due to depletion of phytoplankton, or exhibited minimum negative impact on the existing farm. With development throughout GEL, an excess of phytoplankton was observed during the year in all modelled regions, even at stocking densities as high as 20 mussels m⁻³. Although mussels cultured at this density do not substantially impact the ecosystem, their growth is controlled by the flux of phytoplankton food and abundance of zooplankton competitors. This model provides an effective tool to examine expansion of shellfish farming to new areas, balancing culture location and density.     

Hydrodynamic and ecological assessment of nearshore restoration: A modeling study

Along the Pacific Northwest coast, much of the estuarine habitat has been lost over the last century to agricultural land use, residential and commercial development, and transportation corridors. As a result, many of the ecological processes and functions have been disrupted. To protect and improve these coastal habitats that are vital to aquatic species, many projects are currently underway to restore estuarine and coastal ecosystems through dike breaches, setbacks, and removals. Understanding site-specific information on physical processes is critical for improving the success of such restoration actions. In this study, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was developed to simulate estuarine processes in the Stillaguamish River estuary, where restoration of a 160-acre parcel through dike setback has been proposed. The model was calibrated to observed tide, current, and salinity data for existing conditions and applied to simulate the hydrodynamic responses to two restoration alternatives. Model results were then combined with biophysical data to predict habitat responses within the restoration footprint. Results showed that the proposed dike removal would result in desired tidal flushing and conditions that would support four habitat types on the restoration footprint. At the estuary scale, restoration would substantially increase the proportion of area flushed with freshwater (<5 ppt) at flood tide. Potential implications of predicted changes in salinity and flow dynamics are discussed relative to the distribution of tidal marsh habitat.     

Use of Traditional Ecological Knowledge in Marine Conservation

Abstract:  Traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) represents multiple bodies of knowledge accumulated through many generations of close interactions between people and the natural world. TEK and its application via customary ecological management plans can be useful in modern conservation programs. I disaggregate the term TEK into its constituent parts and show several ways in which TEK can strengthen research designs by increasing locality-specific knowledge, including environmental linkages occurring in those localities. Examples of the uses of TEK in conservation include folk taxonomy in systematics in Micronesia, species knowledge for conservation in Kiribati, and fishers' knowledge of ecological interactions for reserve design in Belize. When conservationists recognize the utility of TEK, they can engage in an equitable exchange of knowledge and foster shared responsibility with indigenous people. These types of exchanges can also provide an opportunity for indigenous people to develop a scientific infrastructure.     

Numerical simulation for impacts of hydrodynamic conditions on algae growth in Chongqing Section of Jialing River, China

Hydrodynamic conditions are important factors for planktonic algae growth, through introducing two parameters which express the optimal velocity and the velocity range for planktonic algae growth, a new velocity factor was put forward for the formula of growth rate. Therefore, the two-dimensional unsteady ecological dynamic model for algae growth was established to analyze the effects of hydrodynamic conditions on algae growth in Chongqing Reach of Jialing River in China. The temporal and spatial distribution of Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration was simulated numerically for various water levels, under climate conditions in period of high frequency for algae blooms of Three Gorges Reservoir and nutrition status at present in the research reach. The corresponding locations and areas of likely algae blooms were analyzed and forecasted. The results showed that about 0.04 m s⁻¹ was the optimal velocity for algae growth, and the occurrence of algae blooms in large scale is almost impossible because of relatively high water flow velocity for Jialing River.     

Influence of grain size on species-habitat models

High resolution remote sensing data facilitate the use of small-scale habitat features such as trees or hedges in the analysis of species-habitat relationships. Such data potentially enable more accurate species-habitat mapping than lower resolution data. Here, for the first time, we systematically investigated this hypothesis by altering the spatial resolution from 1 m up to 1000 m grain size in species-habitat models of 13 bird species. The study area covered the Nidda river catchment in central Germany, a large heterogeneous landscape of 1620 km². A high resolution habitat map of the area was converted to coarser spatial and thematic resolutions in seven steps. We investigated how model performance responded to grain size, and we compared the differential effects of spatial resolution and thematic resolution on model performance. Explained deviance (D²) of the bird models generally decreased with coarser spatial resolution of the data, although it did not decrease monotonically in all species. On average across all species, model D² decreased from 41.5 at 1 m grain size to 15.9 at 1000 m grain size. Ten species were best modelled at 1 m, two species at 3 m and one species at 32 m grain size. Model performance degraded continuously with increasing grain size, both in habitat generalist and habitat specialist bird species, and was systematically lower in habitat generalists. The higher model performance observed at finer grain sizes was most likely caused by the combination of three factors: (1) high spatial accuracy of bird records and (2) a more precise location and delineation of habitat features and, (3) to a lesser degree, by more habitat types differentiated in maps of finer resolution. We conclude that higher spatial and thematic resolution data can be essential for deriving accurate predictions on bird distribution patterns from species-habitat models. Especially for bird species that are sensitive to specific land-use types or to small-scaled habitat features, a grain size of 1-3 m seems most promising.     

金水河流域矿物元素生物地球化学交换模式

通过对金水河流域矿物元素生物地球化学交换模式的研究,得到以下结论：（1）在不同空间位置的矿物元素对河水的水质贡献率不相同。河水成分贡献主要来源于硅酸盐风化,在金水河流域生态系统不同空间位置矿物元素对河水水质贡献率方程为：YRiverwater=0.242＋0.203 XRain＋0172 XLitter＋0.471 XSoilwater（r2=0.55）。（2）固-液相界面（土壤-土壤水溶液）离子交换过程拟合表明：离子交换过程符合二、三次曲线模型。（3）区域内碳酸盐岩含较少的Na＋和K＋,且受酸雨等影响。Na＋在土壤-土壤溶液之间的分配行为可能加重土壤盐碱化的趋势。土壤和枯枝落叶层HCO3-和TDS值均处于稳定的范围内。（4）输入性污染分析表明,流域内土壤基本表现出物理性质改善;但却表现出贫养化和生物地球化学性质恶化的极化趋势。人为活动输入污染物影响显著,在全球变化背景下,酸雨和干旱加剧了水溶液组成的变化。     

Influence of temperature and salinity on the trace element incorporation into statoliths of the common cuttlefish (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Sepia officinalis</Emphasis>)

The use of statolith chemistry to trace migration pathways and distinguish populations of cephalopods is based on the assumption that the elemental composition of statoliths is influenced by physicochemical properties of the ambient environment. However, such influences have not been investigated experimentally up until now. This study presents the first microchemical analyses of cephalopod statoliths obtained from laboratory experiments under different controlled temperature and salinity conditions. Our results show that statolith chemical composition is strongly related to both salinity and temperature in ambient waters. The Ba/Ca ratio is negatively related to temperature and shows no relation to salinity. The I/Ca ratio is positively related to temperature and negatively to salinity. No Sr/Ca relation was found to either salinity or temperature, suggesting that the well-established proxy strontium is not as useful in cephalopod statoliths as in other biomineralized aragonites. Microanalysis of trace elements, however, shows an enormous potential for field studies on distribution, migration and stock separation of cephalopods. Furthermore, Synchrotron X-ray Fluorescence Analysis is introduced as a promising novel method for statolith analysis, providing a spatial resolution of typically 10–15 μm combined with detection limits down to 0.5 ppm.     

Losers in the ‘Rock-Paper-Scissors’ game: The role of non-hierarchical competition and chaos as biodiversity sustaining agents in aquatic systems

Processes occurring within small areas (patch-scale) that influence species richness and spatial heterogeneity of larger areas (landscape-scale) have long been an interest of ecologists. This research focused on the role of patch-scale deterministic chaos arising in phytoplankton assemblages characteristic of “Rock-Paper-Scissors” population dynamics (i.e., competitively non-hierarchical). We employed a simple 2-patch model configuration with lateral mixing and through-flow, and tested the robustness of species richness at the scale of the landscape and spatial heterogeneity. Three different assemblages were used that in a dimensionless box model configuration exhibited chaotic behavior. Our results showed that when a spatial dimension was added to the model configuration, and when all species were shared between patches (i.e., no invading populations), chaos-induced species richness and spatial heterogeneity were quickly reduced with the onset of mixing. While assemblages in each patch were comprised of exactly the same species, they differed in their proportional population densities due to differing stages of succession and the incidence of alternative assemblage structures. Even at very low mixing rates (0.001 d⁻¹), which produced low passive migration rates (0.1% of the total biomass per day), the incidence of high richness and heterogeneity decreased by ∼80%. Interestingly, this sensitivity was not the same for the three assemblages tested. Declines in species richness and spatial heterogeneity associated with mixing were greater in assemblages comprised of competitively dissimilar species (based on the area occupied in the resource-tradeoff space defined by the R* model). The underlying mechanisms may involve the degree to which nutrient dynamics are altered with the arrival of immigrants. Our findings suggest that in partially to well-mixed aquatic systems, the roles of patch-scale non-hierarchical competition and chaos as factors maintaining species richness and spatial heterogeneity may be limited. However, in aquatic systems that experience periods of very low mixing, or even disconnection, non-hierarchical competition and chaos might indeed contribute significantly to biodiversity.     

Communication and mutual resource exchange in north Florida hermit crabs

Summary The patterns of shell exchange in three species of hermit crabs which overlap in distribution and shell use were observed in the laboratory. Crabs showed no tendency to initiate more exchanges with conspecifics as compared with nonconspecific individuals and there were no specific size dominance effects. Lack of common communicatory patterns betweenClibararius vittatus andPagurus pollicaris was correlated with minimal actual exchange, whilePagurus impressus exchanged with both species and executed patterns in common with both. The pattern of shell exchanges and preferences indicated that, in some cases, both individuals may gain in interspecific exchanges.