Backward location and travel time probabilities for a decaying contaminant in an aquifer

Backward location and travel time probabilities can be used to determine the prior position of contamination in an aquifer. These probabilities, which are related to adjoint states of concentration, can be used to improve characterization of known sources of groundwater contamination, to identify previously unknown contamination sources, and to delineate capture zones. The first contribution of this paper is to extend the adjoint model to the case of a decaying solute (first-order decay), and to describe two different interpretations of backward probabilities. The conventional interpretation accounts for the probability that a contaminant particle could decay before reaching the detection location. The other interpretation is conditioned on the fact that the detected contaminant particle actually reached the detection location, despite this possibility of decay. In either case, travel time probabilities are skewed toward earlier travel times, relative to a conservative solute. The second contribution of this paper is to verify the load term for a monitoring well observation. We provide examples using one-dimensional models and hypothetical aquifers. We employ an infinite domain in order to verify the monitoring well load. This new but simple one-dimensional adjoint solution can also be used to verify higher-dimensional numerical models of backward location and travel time probabilities. We employ a semi-infinite domain to illustrate the effect of decay on backward models of pumping well probabilistic capture zones. Decay causes the capture zones to fall closer to the well.     

Analytical solution to transport in three-dimensional heterogeneous well capture zones

Solute transport is investigated in a heterogeneous aquifer for combined natural-gradient and well flows. The heterogeneity is associated with the spatially varying hydraulic conductivity K(x, y, z), which is modelled as a log-normal stationary-random function. As such, the conductivity distribution is characterized by four parameters: the arithmetic mean K(A), the variance sigma(Y)(2) (Y=lnK), the horizontal integral scale I of the axisymmetric log-conductivity autocorrelation and the anisotropy ratio e=I(v)/I (I(v) is the vertical integral scale). The well fully penetrates an aquifer of constant thickness B and has given constant discharge QB, while the background aquifer flow is driven by an uniform mean head-gradient, - J. Therefore, for a medium of homogeneous conductivity K(A), the steady-state capture zone has a width 2L=Q/(K(A)|J|) far from the well (herein the term capture zone is used to refer both to the zone from which water is captured by a pumping well and the zone that captures fluid from an injecting well). The main aim is to determine the mean concentration as a function of time in fluid recovered by a pumping well or in a control volume of the aquifer that captures fluid from an injecting well. Relatively simple solutions to these complex problems are achieved by adopting a few assumptions: a thick aquifer B>I(v) of large horizontal extent (so that boundary effects may be neglected), weak heterogeneity sigma(Y)(2)<1, a highly anisotropic formation e<0.2 and neglect of pore-scale dispersion. Transport is analyzed to the first-order in sigma(Y)(2) in terms of the travel time of particles moving from or towards the well along the steady streamlines within the capture zone. Travel-time mean and variance to any point are computed by two quadratures for an exponential log-conductivity two-point covariance. Spreading is reflected by the variance value, which increases with sigma(Y)(2) and I/L. For illustration, the procedure is applied to two particular cases. In the first one, a well continuously injects water at constant concentration. The mean concentration as function of time for different values of the controlling parameters sigma(Y)(2) and I/L is determined within control volumes surrounding the well or in piezometers. In the second case, a solute plume, initially occupying a finite volume Omega(0), is drawn towards a pumping well. The expected solute recovery by the well as a function of time is determined in terms of the previous controlling parameters as well as the location and extent of Omega(0). The methodology is tested against a full three-dimensional simulation of a multi-well forced-gradient flow field test ([Lemke, L., W.B. II, Abriola, L., Goovaerts, P., 2004. Matching solute breakthrough with deterministic and stochastic aquifer models. Ground Water 42], SGS simulations). Although the flow and transport conditions are more complex than the ones pertinent to capture zones in uniform background flow, it was found that after proper adaptation the methodology led to results for the breakthrough curve in good agreement with a full three-dimensional simulation of flow and transport.     

On the use of mean groundwater age, life expectancy and capture probability for defining aquifer vulnerability and time-of-travel zones for source water protection

Protection and sustainability of water supply wells requires the assessment of vulnerability to contamination and the delineation of well capture zones. Capture zones, or more generally, time-of-travel zones corresponding to specific contaminant travel times, are most commonly delineated using advective particle tracking. More recently, the capture probability approach has been used in which a probability of capture of P=1 is assigned to the well and the growth of a probability-of-capture plume is tracked backward in time using an advective-dispersive transport model. This approach accounts for uncertainty due to local-scale heterogeneities through the use of macrodispersion. In this paper, we develop an alternative approach to capture zone delineation by applying the concept of mean life expectancy E (time remaining before being captured by the well), and we show how life expectancy E is related to capture probability P. Either approach can be used to delineate time-of-travel zones corresponding to specific travel times, as well as the ultimate capture zone. The related concept of mean groundwater age A (time since recharge) can also be applied in the context of defining the vulnerability of a pumped aquifer. In the same way as capture probability, mean life expectancy and groundwater age account for local-scale uncertainty or unresolved heterogeneities through macrodispersion, which standard particle tracking neglects. The approach is tested on 2D and 3D idealized systems, as well as on several watershed-scale well fields within the Regional Municipality of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.     

Migration of contaminants through the unsaturated zone overlying the Hesbaye chalky aquifer in Belgium: a field investigation

This paper presents the results of a detailed field investigation that was performed for studying groundwater recharge processes and solute downward migration mechanisms prevailing in the unsaturated zone overlying a chalk aquifer in Belgium. Various laboratory measurements were performed on core samples collected during the drilling of boreholes in the experimental site. In the field, experiments consisted of well logging, infiltration tests in the unsaturated zone, pumping tests in the saturated zone and tracer tests in both the saturated and unsaturated zones. Results show that gravitational flows govern groundwater recharge and solute migration mechanisms in the unsaturated zone. In the variably saturated chalk, the migration and retardation of solutes is strongly influenced by recharge conditions. Under intense injection conditions, solutes migrate at high speed along the partially saturated fissures, downward to the saturated zone. At the same time, they are temporarily retarded in the almost immobile water located in the chalk matrix. Under normal recharge conditions, fissures are inactive and solutes migrate slowly through the chalk matrix. Results also show that concentration dynamics in the saturated zone are related to fluctuations of groundwater levels in the aquifer. A conceptual model is proposed to explain the hydrodispersive behaviour of the variably saturated chalk. Finally, the vulnerability of the chalk to contamination issues occurring at the land surface is discussed.     

Travel time and trajectory moments of conservative solutes in two-dimensional convergent flows

We address advective transport of a solute traveling toward a single pumping well in a two-dimensional randomly heterogeneous aquifer. The two random variables of interest are the trajectory followed by an individual particle from the injection point to the well location and the particle travel time under steady-state conditions. Our main objective is to derive the predictors of trajectory and travel time and the associated uncertainty, in terms of their first two statistical moments (mean and variance). We consider a solute that undergoes mass transfer between a mobile and an immobile zone. Based on Lawrence et al. [Lawrence, A.E., Sánchez-Vila, X., Rubin, Y., 2002. Conditional moments of the breakthrough curves of kinetically sorbing solute in heterogeneous porous media using multirate mass transfer models for sorption and desorption. Water Resour. Res. 38 (11), 1248, doi:10.1029/2001WR001006.], travel time moments can be written in terms of those of a conservative solute times a deterministic quantity. Moreover, the moments of solute particles trajectory do not depend on mass transfer processes. The resulting mean and variance of travel time and trajectory for a conservative species can be written as functions of the first, second moments and cross-moments of trajectory and velocity components. The equations are developed from a consistent second order expansion in sigmaY (standard deviation of the natural logarithm of hydraulic conductivity). Our solution can be completely integrated with the moment equations of groundwater flow of Guadagnini and Neuman [Guadagnini, A., Neuman, S.P., 1999a. Nonlocal and localized analyses of conditional mean steady state flow in bounded, randomly non uniform domains 1. Theory and computational approach. Water Resour. Res. 35(10), 2999-3018.,Guadagnini, A., Neuman, S.P., 1999b. Nonlocal and localized analyses of conditional mean steady state flow in bounded, randomly non uniform domains 2. Computational examples. Water Resour. Res. 35(10), 3019-3039.], it is free of distributional assumptions regarding the log conductivity field, and formally includes conditioning. We present analytical expressions for the unconditional case by making use of the results of Riva et al. [Riva, M., Guadagnini, A., Neuman, S.P., Franzetti, S., 2001. Radial flow in a bounded randomly heterogeneous aquifer. Transport in Porous Media 45, 139-193.]. The quality of the solution is supported by numerical Monte Carlo simulations. Potential uses of this work include the determination of aquifer reclamation time by means of a single pumping well, and the demarcation of the region potentially affected by the presence of a contaminant in the proximity of a well, whenever the aquifer is very thin and Dupuit-Forchheimer assumption holds.     

Groundwater flow and contaminant transport modeling applications in urban area: scopes and limitations

Background

A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was used to evaluate the groundwater potential and assess the effects of groundwater withdrawal on the regional water level and flow direction in the central Beijing area. A program of groundwater modeling aimed at estimating current contaminant fluxes to the central area and site streams via groundwater was developed.

Results and discussion

The conceptual model developed for the site attempted to incorporate a complex stratigraphic profile in which groundwater flow and contaminant transport is strongly controlled by a shallow aquifer. Here, a conceptual model for groundwater flow and contaminant transport in central Beijing is presented.

Conclusion

Model simulations indicated that a sharp drop in the hydraulic head occurs at the center of the model area, which generates a cone of depression and a continuous decline of head with respect to time as a result of heavy groundwater abstraction.     

Upscaling heterogeneity in aquifer reactivity via exposure-time concept: forward model

Reactive properties of aquifer solid phase materials play an important role in solute fate and transport in the natural subsurface on time scales ranging from years in contaminant remediation to millennia in dynamics of aqueous geochemistry. Quantitative tools for dealing with the impact of natural heterogeneity in solid phase reactivity on solute fate and transport are limited. Here we describe the use of a structural variable to keep track of solute flux exposure to reactive surfaces. With this approach, we develop a non-reactive tracer model that is useful for determining the signature of multi-scale reactive solid heterogeneity in terms of solute flux distributions at the field scale, given realizations of three-dimensional reactive site density fields. First, a governing Eulerian equation for the non-reactive tracer model is determined by an upscaling technique in which it is found that the exposure time of solution to reactive surface areas evolves via both a macroscopic velocity and a macroscopic dispersion in the artificial dimension of exposure time. Second, we focus on the Lagrangian approach in the context of a streamtube ensemble and demonstrate the use of the distribution of solute flux over the exposure time dimension in modeling two-dimensional transport of a solute undergoing simplified linear reversible reactions, in hypothetical conditions following prior laboratory experiments. The distribution of solute flux over exposure time in a given case is a signature of the impact of heterogeneous aquifer reactivity coupled with a particular physical heterogeneity, boundary conditions, and hydraulic gradient. Rigorous application of this approach in a simulation sense is limited here to linear kinetically controlled reactions.     

Field test of a cross-injection scheme for stimulating in situ denitrification near a municipal water supply well

A pilot-scale test of an in situ denitrification scheme was undertaken to assess an adaptation of the nutrient injection wall (NIW) technology for treating a deep (30-40 m) nitrate contamination problem (N-NO(-)(3) ~ 10-12 mg/L). The adaptation is called the Cross-Injection Scheme (CIS). It duplicates the NIW method without a wall; wells are installed and operated directly in the aquifer and high-flux zones of the aquifer are preferentially targeted for treatment. The test was conducted on the site of a municipal water supply well field, with the supply well pumping between 15-80 m(3)/h. Acetate was periodically injected into the aquifer between an injection-extraction well pair positioned across the normal direction of flow. The injected pulses were then permitted to move with the water toward the municipal wells, providing a carbon supply to drive the desired denitrification. The fate of nitrate, nitrite, acetate and sulphate were monitored at multilevel wells located between the injection location and the municipal wells. The acetate pulsing interval was approximately weekly (9 h injections), so that the system was operating passively 95% of the time. Previous work on the site has established that the highest solute fluxes were associated with a 1-3 m thick zone about 35 m below surface. This zone was found to respond to the acetate additions as a function of the municipal pumping rate and the carbon-to-nitrogen ratio (i.e., determined by the injected acetate concentration). Initially, acetate was injected just below the theoretical stoichiometric requirement for complete denitrification and nitrate disappearance was accompanied by nitrite production. Increasing the C:N ratio (doubling the acetate injection concentration) increased the removal of nitrate and diminished the occurrence of nitrite. Slowing the municipal pumping rate, with a C:N ratio of 1.2-1.6, resulted in complete nitrate attenuation with no nitrite production and no sulfate reduction. The experiment demonstrated that the CIS injection scheme is a viable option for the treatment of nitrate contamination in situ near high-capacity wells.     

Variability of aquifer sorption properties in a field experiment on groundwater transport of organic solutes: Methods and preliminary results

Methods to characterize the organic solute sorption distribution coefficient, organic carbon content, and specific surface area of aquifer solids from the site of a field experiment on solute transport in groundwater were refined for application to small subsamples of 10-cm depth increments taken from 5-cm diameter cores. Initial results indicate that the average sorption characteristics of the Borden aquifer do not vary appreciably along the trajectory of the solute plumes. However, the sorption distribution coefficient of tetrachloroethylene varied over nearly an order of magnitude among 10-cm depth increments in one core sample. Preliminary evidence suggests that the sorption distribution coefficients for four halogenated organic solutes vary proportionally among core strata. However, the distribution coefficients for sorption of tetrachloroethylene on various depth increments are not well correlated with either organic carbon content or specific surface area, suggesting that as yet unidentified mineral phases may play a significant role in sorption of such solutes by the sandy aquifer solids.     

Combined use of field and laboratory testing to predict preferred flow paths in an heterogeneous aquifer

Elevated nitrate concentrations within a municipal water supply aquifer led to pilot testing of a field-scale, in situ denitrification technology based on carbon substrate injections. In advance of the pilot test, detailed characterization of the site was undertaken. The aquifer consisted of complex, discontinuous and interstratified silt, sand and gravel units, similar to other well studied aquifers of glaciofluvial origin, 15-40 m deep. Laboratory and field tests, including a conservative tracer test, a pumping test, a borehole flowmeter test, grain-size analysis of drill cuttings and core material, and permeameter testing performed on core samples, were performed on the most productive depth range (27-40 m), and the results were compared. The velocity profiles derived from the tracer tests served as the basis for comparison with other methods. The spatial variation in K, based on grain-size analysis, using the Hazen method, were poorly correlated with the breakthrough data. Trends in relative hydraulic conductivity (K/K(avg)) from permeameter testing compared somewhat better. However, the trends in transient drawdown with depth, measured in multilevel sampling points, corresponded particularly well with those of solute mass flux. Estimates of absolute K, based on standard pumping test analysis of the multilevel drawdown data, were inversely correlated with the tracer test data. The inverse nature of the correlation was attributed to assumptions in the transient drawdown packages that were inconsistent with the variable diffusivities encountered at the scale of the measurements. Collectively, the data showed that despite a relatively low variability in K within the aquifer under study (within a factor of 3), water and solute mass fluxes were concentrated in discrete intervals that could be targeted for later bioremediation.     

Field study of TCE diffusion profiles below DNAPL to assess aquitard integrity

An area where a free-product accumulation of trichloroethylene (TCE) dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) occurs at the bottom of a 10-m-thick surficial sand aquifer was studied to determine the integrity of the underlying, 20-m-thick, clayey silt aquitard formed of glaciolacustrine sediment. TCE concentration-versus-depth profiles determined from aquitard cores collected at five locations indicated penetration of detectable TCE 2.5 to 3.0 m into the aquitard. Two of the profiles show persistent DNAPL at the aquitard interface, while two others indicate that DNAPL, present initially, was completely dissolved away producing concentration declines at the aquitard interface. The fifth profile suggests shallow DNAPL penetration (<0.5 m) into the aquitard, however, this penetration, which was likely caused by cross-contamination during core collection or cone penetrometry (CPT) of the aquitard interface, did not increase the maximum depth of TCE penetration. Combining the field profiles with one-dimensional model simulations, downward migration of the aqueous TCE front, defined as the EPA MCL of 5 microg/l, which was below the analytical detection limit, was projected to a distance between 4 and 5 m below the top of the aquitard. Using a single set of estimated aquitard parameter values, simulations of aqueous TCE migration into the aquitard provided a good fit to four of the field profiles with a migration time of 35 to 45 years, consistent with the history of TCE use at the site. These simulations indicate aqueous TCE migration is diffusion-dominated with only small advective influence by the downward groundwater velocity of 2 to 3 cm/year or less in the aquitard due to pumping of the underlying aquifer to supply water to the facility in the past 50 years. The applicability of the parameter values was confirmed by in situ diffusion experiments of 1-year duration, in which stainless steel cylinders containing DNAPL were inserted into the aquitard. The diffusion-dominated nature of the profiles indicates that the aquitard provides long-term protection of the underlying aquifer from contamination from this DNAPL zone. Simulations of long-term migration of the TCE solute front indicate breakthrough to the lower aquifer at 1200 years for the no advection scenario and at 500 years if the strong downward hydraulic gradient persists. However, even after breakthrough, the mass flux through the aquitard to the underlying aquifer remains relatively low, and when considered in terms of potential impacts to pumping wells, concentrations are not expected to increase significantly above present-day MCLs. The use of contaminant profiles of different time and distance scales, in addition to hydraulic data, dramatically improves the ability to assess aquitard integrity, and provides improved transport parameter values for estimating contaminant arrival times and fluxes. The apparent lack of deep preferential pathways for TCE migration, such as open fractures, is probably due to the softness of the silty aquitard deposit and minimal physical or chemical weathering of the aquitard provides long-term protection of the underlying aquifer from contamination from this DNAPL zone. Simulations of long-term migration of the TCE solute front indicate breakthrough to the lower aquifer at 1200 years for the no advection scenario and at 500 years if the strong downward hydraulic gradient persists. However, even after the breakthrough, the mass flux through the aquitard to the underlying aquifer remains relatively low, and when considered in terms of potential impacts to pumping wells , concentrations are not expected to increase significantly above present-day MCLs. The use of contaminant profiles of different time and distance scales, in addition to hydraulic data, dramatically improves the ability to assess aquitard integrity, and provides improved transport parameter values for estimating contaminant arrival times and fluxes. The apparent lack of deep preferential pathways for TCE migration, such as open fractures, is probably due to the softness of the silty aquitard deposit and minimal physical or chemical weathering of the aquitard.     

Analytical solutions for flow fields near continuous wall reactive barriers

Permeable reactive barriers (PRBs) are widely applied for in-situ remediation of contaminant plumes transported by groundwater. Besides the goal of a sufficient contaminant remediation inside the reactive cell (residence time) the width of plume intercepted by a PRB is of critical concern. A 2-dimensional analytical approach is applied to determine the flow fields towards rectangular PRBs of the continuous wall (CW) configuration with and without impermeable side walls (but yet no funnel). The approach is based on the conformal mapping technique and assumes a homogeneous aquifer with a uniform ambient flow field. The hydraulic conductivity of the reactive material is furthermore assumed to exceed the conductivity of the aquifer by at least one order of magnitude as to neglect the hydraulic gradient across the reactor. The flow fields are analyzed regarding the widths and shapes of the respective capture zones as functions of the dimensions (aspect ratio) of the reactive cell and the ambient groundwater flow direction. Presented are an improved characterization of the advantages of impermeable side walls, a convenient approach to improved hydraulic design (including basic cost-optimization) and new concepts for monitoring CW PRBs. Water level data from a CW PRB at the Seneca Army Depot site, NY, are used for field demonstration.     

Laboratory analog and numerical study of groundwater flow and solute transport in a karst aquifer with conduit and matrix domains

New mathematical and laboratory methods have been developed for simulating groundwater flow and solute transport in karst aquifers having conduits imbedded in a porous medium, such as limestone. The Stokes equations are used to model the flow in the conduits and the Darcy equation is used for the flow in the matrix. The Beavers–Joseph interface boundary conditions are adopted to describe the flow exchange at the interface boundary between the two domains. A laboratory analog is used to simulate the conduit and matrix domains of a karst aquifer. The conduit domain is located at the bottom of the transparent plexiglas laboratory analog and glass beads occupy the remaining space to represent the matrix domain. Water flows into and out of the two domains separately and each has its own supply and outflow reservoirs. Water and solute are exchanged through an interface between the two domains. Pressure transducers located within the matrix and conduit domains of the analog provide data that is processed and stored in digital format. Dye tracing experiments are recorded using time-lapse imaging. The data and images produced are analyzed by a spatial analysis program. The experiments provide not only hydraulic head distribution but also capture solute front images and mass exchange measurements between the conduit and matrix domains. In the experiment, we measure and record pressures, and quantify flow rates and solute transport. The results present a plausible argument that laboratory analogs can characterize groundwater water flow, solute transport, and mass exchange between the conduit and matrix domains in a karst aquifer. The analog validates the predictions of a numerical model and demonstrates the need of laboratory analogs to provide verification of proposed theories and the calibration of mathematical models.     

Groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping using GIS, modeling and a fuzzy logic tool

A groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping assessment, based on a source-pathway-receptor approach, is presented for an urban coastal aquifer in northeastern Brazil. A modified version of the DRASTIC methodology was used to map the intrinsic and specific groundwater vulnerability of a 292 km(2) study area. A fuzzy hierarchy methodology was adopted to evaluate the potential contaminant source index, including diffuse and point sources. Numerical modeling was performed for delineation of well capture zones, using MODFLOW and MODPATH. The integration of these elements provided the mechanism to assess groundwater pollution risks and identify areas that must be prioritized in terms of groundwater monitoring and restriction on use. A groundwater quality index based on nitrate and chloride concentrations was calculated, which had a positive correlation with the specific vulnerability index.     

Distribution of metals in a polluted aquifer: A comparison of aquifer suspended material to fine sediments of the adjacent environment

Metal concentrations were determined for groundwater suspended matter from a site in the coastal aquifer of Israel which has been irrigated with secondary sewage effluents since the 1960's. Suspended matter was collected from the aquifer saturated zone by pumping and by a multi-layer sampler. Fine sediments were collected from both the unsaturated and saturated zones of the contaminated aquifer, as well as from an adjacent uncontaminated environment. Ag, Cu, Fe, Mn and Zn were leached from the samples in three sequential chemical extractions which are taken to represent the carbonate, organic and oxide phases. Comparison of the aquifer samples to those of the adjacent environment showed that Fe and Mn are primarily enriched in non-mobile fine sediments and not in suspended matter, whereas the concentrations of Zu, Cu and Ag show up to an order of magnitude enrichment in the mobile suspended matter in groundwater. The enrichment of these metals in the suspended matter indicates that metals from sewage effluents and agricultural activities have reached the groundwater.     

Description of hydrogeologic heterogeneity and evaluation of radionuclide transport at an underground nuclear test

Realistic models of contaminant transport in groundwater demand detailed characterization of the spatial distribution of subsurface hydraulic properties, while at the same time programmatic constraints may limit collection of pertinent hydraulic data. Fortunately, alternate forms of data can be used to improve characterization of spatial variability. We utilize a methodology that augments sparse hydraulic information (hard data) with more widely available hydrogeologic information to generate equiprobable maps of hydrogeologic properties that incorporate patterns of connected permeable zones. Geophysical and lithologic logs are used to identify hydrogeologic categories and to condition stochastic simulations using Sequential Indicator Simulation (SIS). The resulting maps are populated with hydraulic conductivity values using field data and Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS). Maps of subsurface hydrogeologic heterogeneity are generated for the purpose of examining groundwater flow and transport processes at the Faultless underground nuclear test, Central Nevada Test Area (CNTA), through large-scale, three-dimensional numerical modeling. The maps provide the basis for simulation of groundwater flow, while transport of radionuclides from the nuclear cavity is modeled using particle tracking methods. Sensitivity analyses focus on model parameters that are most likely to reduce the long travel times observed in the base case. The methods employed in this study have improved our understanding of the spatial distribution of preferential flowpaths at this site and provided the critical foundation on which to build models of groundwater flow and transport. The results emphasize that the impacts of uncertainty in hydraulic and chemical parameters are dependent on the radioactive decay of specific species, with rapid decay magnifying the effects of parameters that change travel time.     

Development of a fuzzy-stochastic nonlinear model to incorporate aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty

Site uncertainties significantly influence groundwater flow and contaminant transport predictions. Aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty are both identified in site characterization and represented using proper uncertainty theories. When one theory best represents one parameter whereas a different theory may be more suitable for another parameter, the hybrid propagation of aleatoric (random) and epistemic (nonrandom) uncertainties will occur. The computational challenges of joint propagation of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty through groundwater flow and contaminant transport models are significant. A fuzzy-stochastic nonlinear model was developed in this paper to incorporate these two types of uncertain site information and reduce the computational cost. The results show that (1) the computational cost using the nonlinear model is reduced compared with that of using the sparse grid algorithm and Monte Carlo methods; (2) the uncertainty of hydraulic conductivity (K) significantly influences the water head and solute distribution at the observation wells compared to other uncertain parameters, such as the storage coefficient and the distribution coefficient (K_d); and (3) the combination of multiple uncertain parameters substantially affects the simulation results. Neglecting site uncertainties may lead to unrealistic predictions.     

Use of modeling to protect,plan, and manage water resources in catchment areas

The degradation of water resources by diffuse pollution, mainly due to nitrate and pesticides, is an important matter for public health. Restoration of the quality of natural water catchments by focusing on their catchment areas is therefore a national priority in France. To consider catchment areas as homogeneous and to expend an equal effort on the entire area inevitably leads to a waste of time and money, and restorative actions may not be as efficient as intended. The variability of the pedological and geological properties of the area is actually an opportunity to invest effort on smaller areas, simply because every action is not equally efficient on every kind of pedological or geological surface. Using this approach, it is possible to invest in a few selected zones that will be efficient in terms of environmental results. The contributive hydraulic areas (CHA) concept is different from that of the catchment area. Because the transport of most of the mobile and persistent pollutants is primarily driven by water circulation, the concept of the CHA is based on the water pathway from the surface of the soil in the catchment area to the well. The method uses a three-dimensional hydrogeological model of surface and groundwater integrated with a geographic information system called Watermodel. The model calculates the contribution (m³/h or %) of each point of the soil to the total flow pumped in a well. Application of this model, partially funded by the Seine Normandy Basin Agency, to the catchment of the Dormelles Well in the Cretaceous chalk aquifer in the Orvanne valley, France (catchment area of 23,000 ha at Dormelles, county 77), shows that 95 % of the water pumped at the Dormelles Well comes from only 26 % of the total surface area of the catchment. Consequently, an action plan to protect the water resource will be targeted at the 93 farmers operating in this source area rather than the total number of farmers (250) across the entire 23,000 ha. Another model, developed from Epiclès© software, permits the calculation of the under-root nitrate concentrations for each field based on soil type, climate, and farming practices. When the Watermodel and Epiclès© are coupled, nitrate transfers from the soil to the catchment and the river can be modeled. In this study, the initial pollution due to the actual farming practices was simulated and we were also able to estimate the efficiency of the agronomic action plan by testing several scenarios and calculating the time needed to reach the target nitrate concentration in the well.