Measurement instability and temporal bias in chemical soil monitoring: sources and control measures

Concern that human impacts on the environment may be harmful to natural resources such as soils as well as to living conditions is the major motivation for long-term environmental monitoring. However, the evidence that measurement bias is not constant through time affects time series as an artifact; this also holds true for chemical soil monitoring. Measurement instabilities occur along the whole measurement chain, from soil sampling to the expression of results. The first step in controlling measurement instability is to identify its relevant sources, and the second is to control it by stabilizing, minimizing, or quantifying measurement instability. For all five steps in the measurement process, from soil sampling to the expression of the analytical results, sources of measurement instability are identified and measures of control discussed, leading to the main conclusion concerning the requirement to continuously control the relevant environmental and measurement boundary conditions that may affect measurement instability. The innovative aspect of this paper consists in explicitly addressing measurement instability in chemical soil monitoring and tracking it along the whole measurement chain. The paper is also a plea for a change of paradigm in long-term environmental monitoring, namely to consider temporal measurements as unstable unless their degree of stability is traceably demonstrated, adequately quantified, and included in interpretation.     

农村环境质量综合评价技术体系区域适用性验证

长期以来,中国农村环境保护工作基础相对薄弱,国家环保部门于2014年出台《农村环境质量综合评价技术规定(试行)》。研究利用2015—2016年安徽省域的农村环境监测数据,将安徽省重点生态功能区考核县域的数据与其他县域监测数据进行分类整理,采用该技术规定开展农村环境质量综合评价,对评价体系的3个级别指标层面的评价结果进行对比,并通过2组数据的差异性分析,深度剖析评价体系各级指数的结果合理性,验证该评价技术规定的区域适用性;同时,根据各级指标对比中发现的问题,对评价体系的相关指标提出修改完善建议。     

A qualitative method proposal to improve environmental impact assessment

In environmental impact assessment, qualitative methods are used because they are versatile and easy to apply. This methodology is based on the evaluation of the strength of the impact by grading a series of qualitative attributes that can be manipulated by the evaluator. The results thus obtained are not objective, and all too often impacts are eliminated that should be mitigated with corrective measures. However, qualitative methodology can be improved if the calculation of Impact Importance is based on the characteristics of environmental factors and project activities instead on indicators assessed by evaluators. In this sense, this paper proposes the inclusion of the vulnerability of environmental factors and the potential environmental impact of project activities. For this purpose, the study described in this paper defined Total Impact Importance and specified a quantification procedure. The results obtained in the case study of oil drilling in Colombia reflect greater objectivity in the evaluation of impacts as well as a positive correlation between impact values, the environmental characteristics at and near the project location, and the technical characteristics of project activities.     

《生态环境状况评价技术规范》修订的生态管理效用评估——以山东省为例

简述了生态环境状况评价指标构成以及新旧规范中生态环境状况指数影响因子的对比分析。通过对2014—2017年山东省市、县两级生态环境状况的评价与影响因子相关性分析,结果表明,新规范实施后,有林地、灌木林地、湖泊(库)、水田、中度侵蚀、重度侵蚀面积增加对EI评价结果的影响以正面影响为主,其它建设用地、盐碱地面积增加均对EI评价结果产生负面影响,以上8个影响因子对县级EI评价结果的影响明显大于对市级EI评价结果的影响;城镇建设用地面积增加对市级和县级EI评价结果的影响不同,但相比旧规范其负面影响均有所减小;相比旧规范,二氧化硫排放量增加对市级EI评价结果的负面影响明显减弱,但对县级EI评价结果的负面影响明显增大。     

Integrated Assessment Modeling for Global Climate Change: An Infinite Horizon Optimization Viewpoint

In this paper one uses an infinite time horizon optimal control paradigm to deal with three important issues in global climate change integrated assessment, namely the equitable treatment of all the generations involved, the representation of technical progress, and the uncertainty concerning technological progress and climate change processes. The notion of economic sustainability is associated with the concept of turnpike in infinite horizon optimization models. The issue of deciding on the proper discount rate is addressed in this context and a method is proposed to reconcile long term sustainability and short term time preference for current generations. One also formulates a model where environmental damage and/or technical progress are represented as stochastic jump processes. One calls this random evolution a mode switching process. In this context, sustainability is represented by a family of turnpikes, and the economy will be driven from one steady state to the other as the modes switch. These concepts are illustrated on the DICE model and their possible implementation in other types of integrated assessment models is discussed.     

Comparison of weight assignment procedures in evaluation of environmental impacts

Environmental impact evaluation is an essential component in environmental impact assessment (EIA) study for any developmental project, wherein importance assignment to various parameters depends on human judgement/experts opinion, which involves a high order of subjectivity. In order to minimise bias and subjectivity in evaluation of impacts, and hence in decision making, three different methods, viz. Battelle environmental evaluation system (BEES), importance scale matrix (ISM), and a combination of both, are considered in the present study. A case study for a development project (setting up a new industry) in an industrial belt situated in a region, which is rich in biological resources with good agricultural productivity and having high potential for further industrial development, is presented. The results of the other two methods are compared with the widely used method of BEES. Both methods are found comparable to the BEES method. However, it is observed that the ISM approach provides a better tool for reducing bias and subjectivity occurring in human judgement.     

Modeling Waste Incineration for Life-Cycle Inventory Analysis in Switzerland

This paper proposes a mathematical model for life-cycle inventory analysis (LCI) of waste incineration in Switzerland. In order to model conventional and new incineration technologies adequately, fundamental aspects of the different technologies relevant for the LCI are discussed. The environmental impact of these technologies strongly depends on the assessment of the long-term emissions of the solid incineration residues and is therefore related to value based decisions about the time horizon considered. The article illustrates that the choice of the landfill model has a significant influence on the results of life-cycle assessment of waste incineration.     

Post-project analysis: The use of a network diagram for environmental evaluation of the Barekese Dam, Kumasi, Ghana

The paper presents an evaluation of post-project impacts of the Barekese Dam on three riparian communities downstream about 30 years after its construction. A network diagram, which incorporated a mathematical model, was used for impact identification and analysis. The expected environmental impacts, expressed as quantitative weighted impact scores, showed that the dam appeared to have exerted adverse impacts on the environmental quality of the communities. The impacts in the communities, however, increased with relative distances away from the dam and the river suggestive of cumulative impacts transmitted downstream. Strategic measures for improving environmental quality of the communities have been given.     

完善环境监测技术监督体系的思考

阐述了环境监测技术监督的概念及其重要性和必要性,分析了由于认识不到位、手段欠缺、机制不完善等原因而导致的技术监督作用的弱化表现。提出开展环境质量现状、污染源状况、开发区环境质量、环境管理措施绩效、监测科研课题等多项技术监督,利用报告、会议、区域目标考核等形式,建立多部门联动的环境质量分析会机制、项目审批过程的跟踪监测机制、环境管理污染防治的目标考核机制、监察处罚的效果点评机制、环境监测部门内部的资源整合机制,进一步完善技术监督体系。     

Evaluating impacts of development and conservation projects using sustainability indicators: Opportunities and challenges

There has been an increased interest in using sustainability indicators for evaluating the impacts of development and conservation projects. Past and recent experiences have shown that sustainability indicators can be powerful tools for measuring the outcomes of various interventions, when used appropriately and adequately. Currently, there is a range of methods for applying sustainability indicators for project impact evaluation at the environment–development interface. At the same time, a number of challenges persist which have implication for impact evaluation processes especially in developing countries. We highlight some key and recurrent challenges, using three cases from Kenya, Indonesia and Brazil.In this study, we have conducted a comparative analysis across multiple projects from the three countries, which aimed to conserve biodiversity and improve livelihoods. The assessments of these projects were designed to evaluate their positive, negative, short-term, long term, direct and indirect impacts. We have identified a set of commonly used sustainability indicators to evaluate the projects and have discussed opportunities and challenges associated with their application. Our analysis shows that impact evaluation processes present good opportunities for applying sustainability indicators. On the other hand, we find that project proponents (e.g. managers, evaluators, donors/funders) face challenges with establishing full impacts of interventions and that these are rooted in monitoring and evaluation processes, lack of evidence-based impacts, difficulties of measuring certain outcomes and concerns over scale of a range of impacts.We outline key lessons learnt from the multiple cases and propose ways to overcome common problems. Results from our analysis demonstrate practical experiences of applying sustainability indicators in developing countries context where there are different prevailing socio-economic, cultural and environmental conditions. The knowledge derived from this study may therefore be useful to a wider range of audience who are concerned with sustainable integration of development and environmental conservation.     

Life Cycle Assessment to support the quantification of the environmental impacts of an event

In recent years, several tools have been used to define and quantify the environmental impacts associated with an event; however, a lack of uniform approaches for conducting environmental evaluations has been revealed. The aim of this paper is to evaluate whether the Life Cycle Assessment methodology, which is rarely applied to an event, can be an appropriate tool for calculating the environmental impacts associated with the assembly, disassembly, and use phase of an event analysing in particular the components and the displays used to establish the exhibits. The aim is also to include the issues reported by ISO 20121:2012 involving the interested parties that can be monitored but also affected by the event owner, namely the event organiser, the workforce and the supply chain.A small event held in Northern Italy was selected as the subject of the research. The results obtained show that the main contributors are energy consumption for lighting and heating and the use of aluminium materials, such as bars for supporting the spotlights, carpet and the electronic equipment. A sensitivity analysis for estimating the effects of the impact assessment method chosen has also been conducted and an uncertainty analysis has been performed using the Monte Carlo technique. This study highlighted the importance of the energy consumed by heating and lighting on the environmental implications, and indicated that the preparation and assembly should always be considered when quantifying the environmental profile of an event.     

Evaluating the impact of HIA on urban reconstruction decision-making. Who manages whose risks?

Practitioners and academic researchers increasingly look to evaluation of health impact assessment (HIA) to improve its practice, its efficiency and its legitimacy. Evaluation is also used to account to policy-makers, who express doubts that the benefits of HIA justify its costs. Until recently evaluation of HIA focused on instrument design and procedures but now the focus needs to shift to analysis of the interaction of HIA and decision-making. Multiple case studies have been applied to identify the conditions in which HIA produces the desired benefits. These studies used analytical concepts derived from the literature on evaluation, knowledge utilization, science of sociology and knowledge management.This paper describes a case study in which the strategic motives of the decision-makers affected the impact of an HIA. This HIA comprised of a quantitative environmental model ‘City & Environment’ that was used to assess environmental health impacts of an urban reconstruction plan in a Dutch city. The evaluation of the HIA shows that the decision to follow the recommendations of the HIA was part of a damage control strategy. The more HIA goals deviate from the policy problem and the less HIA is embedded in institutional procedures, then the more HIA impact will be subject to strategic decision-making behaviour. Appropriate cognitive and social strategies are needed to avoid ‘negative learning’ in those the HIA seeks to influence.     

Modelling the Optimal Strategies of Fertiliser Application Using the Game-Theoretic Approach

This paper is a case study which describes the application of game-theoretic approach in resource management with specific emphasis on developing optimal strategies of phosphorus applications for soil fertilisation. The approach adopted allows resource managers to consider not only competitive strategies, which were treated as the Nash equilibrium game solutions, but also strategies which imply cooperation between farmers. These strategies were modelled as the cooperative Pareto optima of the game. The objective function of the game has been developed in order to reflect both economic advantages of phosphorus applications and the environmental losses associated with these applications expressed as dollar values. The paper presents algorithms for finding competitive and cooperative solutions of the game for the particular case when no time scheduling is included in the game parametrisation. The results obtained in the paper showed that the cooperative solutions lead to much lesser environmental impacts than that in the case of non-cooperative strategies.     

机动车环保检验机构信用评价体系模型的构建

根据机动车环保检验相关指标的性质差异,将机动车环保检验机构信用评价模型设计为目标层、准则层、指标层3个层次,涵盖16个评价指标。应用层次分析法,构造目标成对比较矩阵,计算各层次权重,求得各指标对信用评价的影响程度,从而建立信用评价指标体系模型。量化分析结果显示,准则层中质量管理、文明服务的权重分别为0.506 5、0.265 1,对评价结果影响较大;而机构管理、规范作业的权重分别为0.142 4、0.086 1,对评价结果影响较小。     

Who cares? Don't underestimate the values of SEA monitoring!

Until now, monitoring of large-scale regional funding programmes has been rare, although their large scope and abstract planning targets generally involve high levels of uncertainty. This study applies and examines a newly developed methodological approach for monitoring such programmes. It also critically reflects to what extent the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) contributes to a better consideration of environmental sustainability and to a learning effect among the stakeholders as well as within the decision-making process. The interviews conducted during the SEA monitoring revealed a very low recognition of the SEA, and its content, among project applicants of the transnational regional funding programme. They further show that more information on the SEA and its recommendations to mitigate negative environmental impacts would be beneficial in the future. Overall, the monitoring confirmed, however, that the institutions responsible for the programme were aware of the benefits of considering environmental sustainability. The long-term application of SEA in an iterative process provided positive learning effects on environmental sustainability and awareness for environmental aspects. This study also shows how SEA monitoring can serve as a tool to enhance visibility and foster communication among decision makers and applicants.     

Long-term environmental monitoring for assessment of change: measurement inconsistencies over time and potential solutions

The importance of long-term environmental monitoring and research for detecting and understanding changes in ecosystems and human impacts on natural systems is widely acknowledged. Over the last decades, a number of critical components for successful long-term monitoring have been identified. One basic component is quality assurance/quality control protocols to ensure consistency and comparability of data. In Norway, the authorities require environmental monitoring of the impacts of the offshore petroleum industry on the Norwegian continental shelf, and in 1996, a large-scale regional environmental monitoring program was established. As a case study, we used a sub-set of data from this monitoring to explore concepts regarding best practices for long-term environmental monitoring. Specifically, we examined data from physical and chemical sediment samples and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages from 11 stations from six sampling occasions during the period 1996–2011. Despite the established quality assessment and quality control protocols for this monitoring program, we identified several data challenges, such as missing values and outliers, discrepancies in variable and station names, changes in procedures without calibration, and different taxonomic resolution. Furthermore, we show that the use of different laboratories over time makes it difficult to draw conclusions with regard to some of the observed changes. We offer recommendations to facilitate comparison of data over time. We also present a new procedure to handle different taxonomic resolution, so valuable historical data is not discarded. These topics have a broader relevance and application than for our case study.     

Determining significance in social impact assessments (SIA) by applying both technical and participatory approaches: Methodology development and application in a case study of the concentrated solar power plant NOORO I in Morocco

One of the main objectives of impact assessments is to identify potentially significant impacts. However, determining this significance has received very limited attention as a procedural step in social impact assessments. Consequently, only limited research and documentation exists on approaches, survey tools and evaluation methods, especially with regard to participatory approaches and combined participatory-technical approaches. This study aims to address this research gap by developing and applying a joined participatory and technical impact significance evaluation. The approach is applied in a case study which analysed the livelihood impacts of the large-scale concentrated solar power plant NOOR_O I in Ouarzazate, Morocco.The analysis shows that although different approaches and significance criteria must be applied when involving both local stakeholders and experts, the linked analysis offers more robust results and an improved basis for decision-making. Furthermore, it was observed in the case study that impacts affecting the social, cultural and political spheres were more often considered significant than impacts affecting the physical and material livelihood dimensions. Regarding sustainability assessments of large-scale renewable energy plants, these findings underline the importance (as for other large-scale infrastructure developments) of placing greater emphasis on the inclusion of social aspects in impact assessments.     

Using a neural network approach and time series data from an international monitoring station in the Yellow Sea for modeling marine ecosystems

The international marine ecological safety monitoring demonstration station in the Yellow Sea was developed as a collaborative project between China and Russia. It is a nonprofit technical workstation designed as a facility for marine scientific research for public welfare. By undertaking long-term monitoring of the marine environment and automatic data collection, this station will provide valuable information for marine ecological protection and disaster prevention and reduction. The results of some initial research by scientists at the research station into predictive modeling of marine ecological environments and early warning are described in this paper. Marine ecological processes are influenced by many factors including hydrological and meteorological conditions, biological factors, and human activities. Consequently, it is very difficult to incorporate all these influences and their interactions in a deterministic or analysis model. A prediction model integrating a time series prediction approach with neural network nonlinear modeling is proposed for marine ecological parameters. The model explores the natural fluctuations in marine ecological parameters by learning from the latest observed data automatically, and then predicting future values of the parameter. The model is updated in a “rolling” fashion with new observed data from the monitoring station. Prediction experiments results showed that the neural network prediction model based on time series data is effective for marine ecological prediction and can be used for the development of early warning systems.     

The FAIR model: A tool to analyse environmental and costs implications of regimes of future commitments

This article describes the policy decision-support tool, FAIR, to assess the environmental and abatement costs implications of international regimes for differentiation of future commitments. The model links long-term climate targets and global reduction objectives with regional emission allowances and abatement costs, accounting for the Kyoto Mechanisms used. FAIR consists of three sub-models: a simple climate model, an emission-allocation model and a cost model. The article also analyses ten different rule-based emission allocation schemes for two long-term concentration stabilisation targets for greenhouse gases. This analysis shows that evaluating regimes requires not only an assessment of the initial allocation, but also of the distribution of abatement costs and the impacts from emissions trading. The Multi-Stage approach (with a gradual increase of Parties adopting emission intensity or reductions targets) and the Triptych approach (with sectoral targets for all Parties) seem to provide the best prospects for most of the Parties when compared to the other allocation schemes analysed.     

Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change.