IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AQUATIC ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING AND HEALTH1

ABSTRACT: We review published analyses of the effects of climate change on goods and services provided by freshwater ecosystems in the United States. Climate-induced changes must be assessed in the context of massive anthropogenic changes in water quantity and quality resulting from altered patterns of land use, water withdrawal, and species invasions; these may dwarf or exacerbate climate-induced changes. Water to meet instream needs is competing with other uses of water, and that competition is likely to be increased by climate change. We review recent predictions of the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems in eight regions of North America. Impacts include warmer temperatures that alter lake mixing regimes and availability of fish habitat; changed magnitude and seasonality of runoff regimes that alter nutrient loading and limit habitat availability at low flow; and loss of prairie pothole wetlands that reduces waterfowl populations. Many of the predicted changes in aquatic ecosystems are a consequence of climatic effects on terrestrial ecosystems; shifts in riparian vegetation and hydrology are particularly critical. We review models that could be used to explore potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems; these include models of instream flow, bioenergetics models, nutrient spiraling models, and models relating riverine food webs to hydrologic regime. We discuss potential ecological risks, benefits, and costs of climate change and identify information needs and model improvements that are required to improve our ability to predict and identify climate change impacts and to evaluate management options.     

Revealing the Diversity of Natural Hydrologic Regimes in California with Relevance for Environmental Flows Applications

Alterations to flow regimes for water management objectives have degraded river ecosystems worldwide. These alterations are particularly profound in Mediterranean climate regions such as California with strong climatic variability and riverine species highly adapted to the resulting flooding and drought disturbances. However, defining environmental flow targets for Mediterranean rivers is complicated by extreme hydrologic variability and often intensive water management legacies. Improved understanding of the diversity of natural streamflow patterns and their spatial arrangement across Mediterranean regions is needed to support the future development of effective flow targets at appropriate scales for management applications with minimal resource and data requirements. Our study addresses this need through the development of a spatially explicit reach‐scale hydrologic classification for California. Dominant hydrologic regimes and their physio‐climatic controls are revealed, using available unimpaired and naturalized streamflow time‐series and generally publicly available geospatial datasets. This methodology identifies eight natural flow classes representing distinct flow sources, hydrologic characteristics, and catchment controls over rainfall‐runoff response. The study provides a broad‐scale hydrologic framework upon which flow‐ecology relationships could subsequently be established towards reach‐scale environmental flows applications in a complex, highly altered Mediterranean region.     

Legitimizing Fluvial Ecosystems as Users of Water: An Overview

We suggest that fluvial ecosystems are legitimate users of water and that there are basic ecological principles guiding the maintenance of long-term ecological vitality. This article articulates some fundamental relationships between physical and ecological processes, presents basic principles for maintaining the vitality of fluvial ecosystems, identifies several major scientific challenges and opportunities for effective implementation of the basic ecological principles, and acts as an introduction to three specific articles to follow on biodiversity, biogeochemistry, and riparian communities. All the objectives, by necessity, link climate, land, and fresh water. The basic principles proposed are: (1) the natural flow regime shapes the evolution of aquatic biota and ecological processes, (2) every river has a characteristic flow regime and an associated biotic community, and (3) aquatic ecosystems are topographically unique in occupying the lowest position in the landscape, thereby integrating catchment-scale processes. Scientific challenges for the immediate future relate to quantifying cumulative effects, linking multidisciplinary knowledge and models, and formulating effective monitoring and assessment procedures. Additionally, forecasting the ecological consequences of changing water regimes is a fundamental challenge for science, especially as environmental issues related to fresh waters escalate in the next two to three decades.     

Undamming Rivers: A Review of the Ecological Impacts of Dam Removal

Dam removal continues to garner attention as a potential river restoration tool. The increasing possibility of dam removal through the FERC relicensing process, as well as through federal and state agency actions, makes a critical examination of the ecological benefits and costs essential. This paper reviews the possible ecological impacts of dam removal using various case studies. Restoration of an unregulated flow regime has resulted in increased biotic diversity through the enhancement of preferred spawning grounds or other habitat. By returning riverine conditions and sediment transport to formerly impounded areas, riffle/pool sequences, gravel, and cobble have reappeared, along with increases in biotic diversity. Fish passage has been another benefit of dam removal. However, the disappearance of the reservoir may also affect certain publicly desirable fisheries. Short-term ecological impacts of dam removal include an increased sediment load that may cause suffocation and abrasion to various biota and habitats. However, several recorded dam removals have suggested that the increased sediment load caused by removal should be a short-term effect. Preremoval studies for contaminated sediment may be effective at controlling toxic release problems. Although monitoring and dam removal studies are limited, a continued examination of the possible ecological impacts is important for quantifying the resistance and resilience of aquatic ecosystems. Dam removal, although controversial, is an important alternative for river restoration.     

Basic principles and ecological consequences of changing water regimes on nitrogen cycling in fluvial systems

Understanding the environmental consequences of changing water regimes is a daunting challenge for both resource managers and ecologists. Balancing human demands for fresh water with the needs of the environment for water in appropriate amounts and at the appropriate times are shaping the ways by which this natural resource will be used in the future. Based on past decisions that have rendered many freshwater resources unsuitable for use, we argue that river systems have a fundamental need for appropriate amounts and timing of water to maintain their biophysical integrity. Biophysical integrity is fundamental for the formulation of future sustainable management strategies. This article addresses three basic ecological principles driving the biogeochemical cycle of nitrogen in river systems. These are (1) how the mode of nitrogen delivery affects river ecosystem functioning, (2) how increasing contact between water and soil or sediment increases nitrogen retention and processing, and (3) the role of floods and droughts as important natural events that strongly influence pathways of nitrogen cycling in fluvial systems. New challenges related to the cumulative impact of water regime change, the scale of appraisal of these impacts, and the determination of the impacts due to natural and human changes are discussed. It is suggested that cost of long-term and long-distance cumulative impacts of hydrological changes should be evaluated against short-term economic benefits to determine the real environmental costs.     

External threats: the dilemma of resource management on the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National park,USA

The United States Congress established Grand Canyon National Park in 1919 to preserve for posterity the outstanding natural attributes of the canyon cut by the Colorado River. In some cases National Park Service attempts to maintain Grand Canyon's natural environment have been thwarted by activities outside the park. One of the most obvious external threats is Glen Canyon Dam, only 26 km upstream from the park boundary. Constructed in 1963, this gigantic dam has greatly altered the physicochemical and biological characteristics of 446 km of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park. The river's aquatic ecosystem has been greatly modified through the loss of indigenous species and the addition of numerous exotics. We consider this anexotic ecosystem. The riparian ecosystem has been less modified, with addition of a few exotics and no loss of natives—this we consider anaturalized ecosystem.The great dilemma now faced by park managers is that, after 20 years of managing resources along a river controlled by Glen Canyon Dam, the Bureau of Reclamation has proposed major changes in operational procedures for the dam. Scientists and managers from the National Park Service, Bureau of Reclamation, and cooperating federal and state resource management agencies are using a systems analysis approach to examine the impacts of various Colorado River flow regimes on aquatic, riparian, and recreational parameters in the park. This approach will help in the development of management alternatives designed to permit the most efficient use of that river's natural resources without their destruction.     

Putting the “Ecology” into Environmental Flows: Ecological Dynamics and Demographic Modelling

There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological 'health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A 'meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.     

Management of the Spring Snowmelt Recession in Regulated Systems

In an effort to restore predictable ecologically relevant spring snowmelt recession flow patterns in rivers regulated by dams, this study defined a methodology by which spring flow regimes can be modeled in regulated systems from the quantifiable characteristics of spring snowmelt recessions in unregulated rivers. An analysis of eight unregulated rivers across the Sierra Nevada mountain range in California found that unregulated systems behaved similarly with respect to seasonal spring patterns and recession limb curvature, and thus prescribed flows could be designed in a manner that mimics those predictable characteristics. Using the methodology to quantify spring recession flows in terms of a daily percent decrease in flow, a series of flow recession scenarios were created for application in an existing hydrodynamic model for the regulated Rubicon River. The modeling results showed that flow recessions with slow ramping rates similar to those observed in unregulated rivers (less than 10% per day) were likely to be protective of native aquatic species, such as the Foothill yellow‐legged frog, while flows that receded at greater rates would likely result in desiccation of egg masses and potential stranding of tadpoles and fry. Furthermore, recession rates of less than 10% per day provided the most spatially diverse hydraulic habitat in the modeled domain for an appropriate duration in spring to support all native species guilds and maximize aquatic biodiversity.     

Connectivity of Streams and Wetlands to Downstream Waters: An Integrated Systems Framework

Interest in connectivity has increased in the aquatic sciences, partly because of its relevance to the Clean Water Act. This paper has two objectives: (1) provide a framework to understand hydrological, chemical, and biological connectivity, focusing on how headwater streams and wetlands connect to and contribute to rivers; and (2) briefly review methods to quantify hydrological and chemical connectivity. Streams and wetlands affect river structure and function by altering material and biological fluxes to the river; this depends on two factors: (1) functions within streams and wetlands that affect material fluxes; and (2) connectivity (or isolation) from streams and wetlands to rivers that allows (or prevents) material transport between systems. Connectivity can be described in terms of frequency, magnitude, duration, timing, and rate of change. It results from physical characteristics of a system, e.g., climate, soils, geology, topography, and the spatial distribution of aquatic components. Biological connectivity is also affected by traits and behavior of the biota. Connectivity can be altered by human impacts, often in complex ways. Because of variability in these factors, connectivity is not constant but varies over time and space. Connectivity can be quantified with field‐based methods, modeling, and remote sensing. Further studies using these methods are needed to classify and quantify connectivity of aquatic ecosystems and to understand how impacts affect connectivity.     

Biota Connect Aquatic Habitats throughout Freshwater Ecosystem Mosaics

Freshwater ecosystems are linked at various spatial and temporal scales by movements of biota adapted to life in water. We review the literature on movements of aquatic organisms that connect different types of freshwater habitats, focusing on linkages from streams and wetlands to downstream waters. Here, streams, wetlands, rivers, lakes, ponds, and other freshwater habitats are viewed as dynamic freshwater ecosystem mosaics (FEMs) that collectively provide the resources needed to sustain aquatic life. Based on existing evidence, it is clear that biotic linkages throughout FEMs have important consequences for biological integrity and biodiversity. All aquatic organisms move within and among FEM components, but differ in the mode, frequency, distance, and timing of their movements. These movements allow biota to recolonize habitats, avoid inbreeding, escape stressors, locate mates, and acquire resources. Cumulatively, these individual movements connect populations within and among FEMs and contribute to local and regional diversity, resilience to disturbance, and persistence of aquatic species in the face of environmental change. Thus, the biological connections established by movement of biota among streams, wetlands, and downstream waters are critical to the ecological integrity of these systems. Future research will help advance our understanding of the movements that link FEMs and their cumulative effects on downstream waters.     

Braided River Flow and Invasive Vegetation Dynamics in the Southern Alps, New Zealand

In mountain braided rivers, extreme flow variability, floods and high flow pulses are fundamental elements of natural flow regimes and drivers of floodplain processes, understanding of which is essential for management and restoration. This study evaluated flow dynamics and invasive vegetation characteristics and changes in the Ahuriri River, a free-flowing braided, gravel-bed river in the Southern Alps of New Zealand’s South Island. Sixty-seven flow metrics based on indicators of hydrologic alteration and environmental flow components (extreme low flows, low flows, high flow pulses, small floods and large floods) were analyzed using a 48-year flow record. Changes in the areal cover of floodplain and invasive vegetation classes and patch characteristics over 20 years (1991–2011) were quantified using five sets of aerial photographs, and the correlation between flow metrics and cover changes were evaluated. The river exhibits considerable hydrologic variability characteristic of mountain braided rivers, with large variation in floods and other flow regime metrics. The flow regime, including flood and high flow pulses, has variable effects on floodplain invasive vegetation, and creates dynamic patch mosaics that demonstrate the concepts of a shifting mosaic steady state and biogeomorphic succession. As much as 25 % of the vegetation cover was removed by the largest flood on record (570 m³/s, ~50-year return period), with preferential removal of lupin and less removal of willow. However, most of the vegetation regenerated and spread relatively quickly after floods. Some flow metrics analyzed were highly correlated with vegetation cover, and key metrics included the peak magnitude of the largest flood, flood frequency, and time since the last flood in the interval between photos. These metrics provided a simple multiple regression model of invasive vegetation cover in the aerial photos evaluated. Our analysis of relationships among flow regimes and invasive vegetation cover has implications for braided rivers impacted by hydroelectric power production, where increases in invasive vegetation cover are typically greater than in unimpacted rivers.     

Integrating Human Impacts and Ecological Integrity into a Risk-Based Protocol for Conservation Planning

Conservation planning aims to protect biodiversity by sustainng the natural physical, chemical, and biological processes within representative ecosystems. Often data to measure these components are inadequate or unavailable. The impact of human activities on ecosystem processes complicates integrity assessments and might alter ecosystem organization at multiple spatial scales. Freshwater conservation targets, such as populations and communities, are influenced by both intrinsic aquatic properties and the surrounding landscape, and locally collected data might not accurately reflect potential impacts. We suggest that changes in five major biotic drivers—energy sources, physical habitat, flow regime, water quality, and biotic interactions—might be used as surrogates to inform conservation planners of the ecological integrity of freshwater ecosystems. Threats to freshwater systems might be evaluated based on their impact to these drivers to provide an overview of potential risk to conservation targets. We developed a risk-based protocol, the Ecological Risk Index (ERI), to identify watersheds with least/most risk to conservation targets. Our protocol combines risk-based components, specifically the frequency and severity of human-induced stressors, with biotic drivers and mappable land- and water-use data to provide a summary of relative risk to watersheds. We illustrate application of our protocol with a case study of the upper Tennessee River basin, USA. Differences in risk patterns among the major drainages in the basin reflect dominant land uses, such as mining and agriculture. A principal components analysis showed that localized, moderately severe threats accounted for most of the threat composition differences among our watersheds. We also found that the relative importance of threats is sensitive to the spatial grain of the analysis. Our case study demonstrates that the ERI is useful for evaluating the frequency and severity of ecosystemwide risk, which can inform local and regional conservation planning.     

Differing Modes of Biotic Connectivity within Freshwater Ecosystem Mosaics

We describe a collection of aquatic and wetland habitats in an inland landscape, and their occurrence within a terrestrial matrix, as a “freshwater ecosystem mosaic” (FEM). Aquatic and wetland habitats in any FEM can vary widely, from permanently ponded lakes, to ephemerally ponded wetlands, to groundwater‐fed springs, to flowing rivers and streams. The terrestrial matrix can also vary, including in its influence on flows of energy, materials, and organisms among ecosystems. Biota occurring in a specific region are adapted to the unique opportunities and challenges presented by spatial and temporal patterns of habitat types inherent to each FEM. To persist in any given landscape, most species move to recolonize habitats and maintain mixtures of genetic materials. Species also connect habitats through time if they possess needed morphological, physiological, or behavioral traits to persist in a habitat through periods of unfavorable environmental conditions. By examining key spatial and temporal patterns underlying FEMs, and species‐specific adaptations to these patterns, a better understanding of the structural and functional connectivity of a landscape can be obtained. Fully including aquatic, wetland, and terrestrial habitats in FEMs facilitates adoption of the next generation of individual‐based models that integrate the principles of population, community, and ecosystem ecology.     

Impacts of Dams on Flow Regimes in Three Headwater Subbasins of the Columbia River Basin,United States1

Moore, Johnnie N., Alicia S. Arrigoni, and Andrew C. Wilcox, 2012. Impacts of Dams on Flow Regimes in Three Headwater Subbasins of the Columbia River Basin, United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 925‐938. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00660.x Abstract: We compared long‐term changes in flow regimes resulting from climate change with those resulting from dams in three matched pairs of natural and modified headwater subbasins of the Columbia River. Based on the analysis of 12 flow‐regime metrics, we found that damming had minimal effect on most quantity of flow metrics, but major effect on timing of flow metrics, especially those representing “spring runoff.” In all modified subbasins, “spring runoff” metrics occurred much earlier than natural flow (up to ～44 days earlier for April‐July flows). Storage capacity modulated the magnitude of timing of flow‐metric changes, with the largest storage capacity leading to the most change. However, even in subbasins with low storage capacity, we found significant change in most timing of flow metrics. We also found that damming, especially in subbasins with higher storage capacity, overwhelmed climate variability in all basins for most flow metrics. This shows that reservoir operations need to be modified to more closely match the natural timing of flow regimes to promote positive ecologic response in modified rivers, even in basins where quantity of flow metrics have not changed substantially as a result of damming.     

Riparian Bird Communities as Indicators of Human Impacts Along Mediterranean Streams

Riparian areas link aquatic and terrestrial habitats, supporting species-rich bird communities, which integrate both terrestrial and aquatic processes. For this reason, inclusion of riparian birds in stream bioassessment could add to the information currently provided by existing programs that monitor aquatic organisms. To assess if bird community metrics could indicate stream conditions, we sampled breeding birds in the riparian zone of 37 reaches in 5 streams draining watersheds representing a gradient of agricultural intensity in central Italy. As a more direct indicator of water quality, stream macroinvertebrates were also sampled for computation of the Italian Extended Biotic Index (IBE). An anthropogenic index was calculated within 1 km of sampled reaches based on satellite-derived land-use classifications. Predictive models of macroinvertebrate integrity based on land-use and avian metrics were compared using an information-theoretic approach (AIC). We also determined if stream quality related to the detection of riverine species. Apparent bird species diversity and richness peaked at intermediate levels of land-use modification, but increased with IBE values. Water quality did not relate to the detection of riverine species as a guild, but two species, the dipper Cinclus cinclus and the grey wagtail Motacilla cinerea, were only observed in reaches with the highest IBE values. Small-bodied insectivorous birds and arboreal species were detected more often in reaches with better water quality and in less modified landscapes. In contrast, larger and granivorous species were more common in disturbed reaches. According to the information-theoretic approach, the best model for predicting water quality included the anthropogenic index, bird species diversity, and an index summarizing the trophic structure of the bird community. We conclude that, in combination with landscape-level information, the diversity and trophic structure of riparian bird communities could serve as a rapid indicator of stream-dwelling macroinvertebrates and, therefore, degradation of in-stream biotic integrity.     

COMPROMISE PROGRAMMING METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING INSTREAM FLOW UNDER MULTIOBJECTIVE WATER ALLOCATION CRITERIA1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a quantitative assessment framework for determining the instream flow under multiobjective water allocation criteria. The Range of Variability Approach (RVA) is employed to evaluate the hydrologic alterations caused by flow diversions, and the resulting degrees of alteration for the 32 Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHAs) are integrated as an overall degree of hydrologic alteration. By including this index in the objective function, it is possible to optimize the water allocation scheme using compromise programming to minimize the hydrologic alteration and water supply shortages. The proposed methodology is applied to a case study of the Kaoping diversion weir in Taiwan. The results indicate that the current release of 9.5 m³/s as a minimum instream flow does not effectively mitigate the highly altered hydrologic regime. Increasing the instream flow would reduce the overall degree of hydrologic alteration; however, this is achieved at the cost of increasing the water supply shortages. The effects on the optimal instream flow of the weighting factors assigned to water supplies and natural flow variations are also investigated. With equal weighting assigned to the multiple objectives, the optimal instream flow of 26 m³/s leads to a less severely altered hydrologic regime, especially for those low‐flow characteristics, thereby providing a better protection of the riverine environment.     

How Run-of-River Operation Affects Hydropower Generation and Value

Regulated rivers in the United States are required to support human water uses while preserving aquatic ecosystems. However, the effectiveness of hydropower license requirements nationwide has not been demonstrated. One requirement that has become more common is “run-of-river” (ROR) operation, which restores a natural flow regime. It is widely believed that ROR requirements (1) are mandated to protect aquatic biota, (2) decrease hydropower generation per unit flow, and (3) decrease energy revenue. We tested these three assumptions by reviewing hydropower projects with license-mandated changes from peaking to ROR operation. We found that ROR operation was often prescribed in states with strong water-quality certification requirements and migratory fish species. Although benefits to aquatic resources were frequently cited, changes were often motivated by other considerations. After controlling for climate, the overall change in annual generation efficiency across projects because of the change in operation was not significant. However, significant decreases were detected at one quarter of individual hydropower projects. As expected, we observed a decrease in flow during peak demand at 7 of 10 projects. At the remaining projects, diurnal fluctuations actually increased because of operation of upstream storage projects. The economic implications of these results, including both producer costs and ecologic benefits, are discussed. We conclude that regional-scale studies of hydropower regulation, such as this one, are long overdue. Public dissemination of flow data, license provisions, and monitoring data by way of on-line access would facilitate regional policy analysis while increasing regulatory transparency and providing feedback to decision makers.     

Spatial and Temporal Variation of Water Temperature Regimes on the Snoqualmie River Network

Although mean temperatures change annually and are highly correlated with elevation, the entire thermal regime on the Snoqualmie River, Washington, USA does not simply shift with elevation or season. Particular facets of the thermal regime have unique spatial patterns on the river network and at particular times of the year. We used a spatially and temporally dense temperature dataset to generate 13 temperature metrics representing popular summary measures (e.g., minimum, mean, or maximum temperature) and wavelet variances over each of seven time windows. Spatial stream‐network models which account for within‐network dependence were fit using three commonly used predictors of riverine thermal regime (elevation, mean annual discharge, and percent commercial area) to each temperature metric in each time window. Predictors were strongly related (r² > 0.6) to common summaries of the thermal regime but were less effective at describing other facets of the thermal regime. Relationships shifted with season and across facets. Summer mean temperatures decreased strongly with increasing elevation but this relationship was weaker for winter mean temperatures and winter minimum temperatures; it was reversed for mean daily range and there was no relationship between elevation and wavelet variances. We provide examples of how enriched information about the spatial and temporal complexities of natural thermal regimes can improve management and monitoring of aquatic resources.