Developing a theory of change for a community‐based response to illegal wildlife trade

The escalating illegal wildlife trade (IWT) is one of the most high‐profile conservation challenges today. The crisis has attracted over US$350 million in donor and government funding in recent years, primarily directed at increased enforcement. There is growing recognition among practitioners and policy makers of the need to engage rural communities that neighbor or live with wildlife as key partners in tackling IWT. However, a framework to guide such community engagement is lacking. We developed a theory of change (ToC) to guide policy makers, donors, and practitioners in partnering with communities to combat IWT. We identified 4 pathways for community‐level actions: strengthen disincentives for illegal behavior, increase incentives for wildlife stewardship, decrease costs of living with wildlife, and support livelihoods that are not related to wildlife. To succeed the pathways, all require strengthening of enabling conditions, including capacity building, and of governance. Our ToC serves to guide actions to tackle IWT and to inform the evaluation of policies. Moreover, it can be used to foster dialogue among IWT stakeholders, from local communities to governments and international donors, to develop a more effective, holistic, and sustainable community‐based response to the IWT crisis.     

Participatory assessment of soil degradation in the uplands of southwestern Tanzania: Implications for sustainable agriculture and rural livelihoods

Rural household food insecurity and poverty are closely linked to soil degradation in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, causes, degradation processes, coping strategies and need for interventions may vary from one place to another. This study was conducted in Mbinga District, SW Tanzania, to investigate causes and biophysical processes of soil degradation; effects on livelihoods, coping strategies and entry points for interventions. Implications for sustainable production and rural livelihoods are discussed. Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), household surveys using a short open-ended questionnaire and biophysical exploration were the research tools used. Soil fertility depletion resulting from continuous cropping and erosion losses is the main form of soil degradation. Maize yield was 57% lower in fertility-depleted farms than in productive farms. Soil pH, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺ and CEC accounted for 79% of variations in maize yield. Organic soil fertility amelioration was a common strategy used by smallholders. Use of beneficial tree and shrub fallows is the most environmentally, economically and socially promising improvement that can be used to build on the existing strengths of farmers' knowledge and strategies. Subsidy for the right type of fertilizers, infrastructure improvement and education of farmers on proper use of fertilizers should significantly contribute to improved and sustainable production and livelihoods.     

Production from marginal lands: indigenous commercial use of wild animals in northern Australia

Throughout the world, there are imperatives and opportunities to develop sustainable enterprises based on plants and animals to alleviate poverty. This is true for indigenous people across northern Australia, although to date there has been very limited commercial use of wildlife within indigenous Australian communities. In this study, we examine factors affecting the establishment of enterprises utilising animal species in remote indigenous communities and suggest ways of improving uptake. We found four major areas affecting the progress of these enterprises: a lack of comprehensive market information and dissemination of that knowledge; a lack of basic infrastructure and training; a need for more appropriate and flexible government policy and regulation; and adverse public perceptions. Commercialisation of native species is at a relatively early stage compared to tropical Asia, Africa and South America, and development of these enterprises has the potential to benefit indigenous livelihoods in remote and marginal areas in Australia.     

Human–wildlife coexistence in a changing world

Human–wildlife conflict (HWC) is a key topic in conservation and agricultural research. Decision makers need evidence-based information to design sustainable management plans and policy instruments. However, providing objective decision support can be challenging because realities and perceptions of human–wildlife interactions vary widely between and within rural, urban, and peri-urban areas. Land users who incur costs through wildlife argue that wildlife-related losses should be compensated and that prevention should be subsidized. Supporters of human–wildlife coexistence policies, such as urban-dwelling people, may not face threats to their livelihoods from wildlife. Such spatial heterogeneity in the cost and benefits of living with wildlife is germane in most contemporary societies. This Special Section features contributions on wildlife-induced damages that range from human perspectives (land use, psychology, governance, local attitudes and perceptions, costs and benefits, and HWC and coexistence theory) to ecological perspectives (animal behavior). Building on current literature and articles in this section, we developed a conceptual model to help frame HWC and coexistence dimensions. The framework can be used to determine damage prevention implementation levels and approaches to HWC resolution. Our synthesis revealed that inter- and transdisciplinary approaches and multilevel governance approaches can help stakeholders and institutions implement sustainable management strategies that promote human–wildlife coexistence.     

A dynamic simulation model to support reduction in illegal trade within legal wildlife markets

Sustainable wildlife trade is critical for biodiversity conservation, livelihoods, and food security. Regulatory frameworks are needed to secure these diverse benefits of sustainable wildlife trade. However, regulations limiting trade can backfire, sparking illegal trade if demand is not met by legal trade alone. Assessing how regulations affect wildlife market participants’ incentives is key to controlling illegal trade. Although much research has assessed how incentives at both the harvester and consumer ends of markets are affected by regulations, little has been done to understand the incentives of traders (i.e., intermediaries). We built a dynamic simulation model to support reduction in illegal wildlife trade within legal markets by focusing on incentives traders face to trade legal or illegal products. We used an Approximate Bayesian Computation approach to infer illegal trading dynamics and parameters that might be unknown (e.g., price of illegal products). We showcased the utility of the approach with a small-scale fishery case study in Chile, where we disentangled within-year dynamics of legal and illegal trading and found that the majority (∼77%) of traded fish is illegal. We utilized the model to assess the effect of policy interventions to improve the fishery's sustainability and explore the trade-offs between ecological, economic, and social goals. Scenario simulations showed that even significant increases (over 200%) in parameters proxying for policy interventions enabled only moderate improvements in ecological and social sustainability of the fishery at substantial economic cost. These results expose how unbalanced trader incentives are toward trading illegal over legal products in this fishery. Our model provides a novel tool for promoting sustainable wildlife trade in data-limited settings, which explicitly considers traders as critical players in wildlife markets. Sustainable wildlife trade requires incentivizing legal over illegal wildlife trade and consideration of the social, ecological, and economic impacts of interventions.     

Increasing pressure, declining water and climate change in north-eastern Morocco

The coastal stretch of north-eastern Mediterranean Morocco holds vitally important ecological, social, and economic functions. The implementation of large-scale luxury tourism resorts shall push socio-economic development and facilitate the shift from a mainly agrarian to a service economy. Sufficient water availability and intact beaches are among the key requirements for the successful realization of regional development plans. The water situation is already critical, additional water-intense sectors could overstrain the capacity of water resources. Further, coastal erosion caused by sea-level rise is projected. Regional climate change is observable, and must be included in regional water management. Long-term climate trends are assessed for the larger region (Moulouya basin) and for the near-coastal zone at Saidia. The amount of additional water demand is assessed for the large-dimensioned Saidia resort; including the monthly, seasonal and annual tourist per capita water need under inclusion of irrigated golf courses and garden areas. A shift of climate patterns is observed, a lengthening of the dry summer season, and as well a significant decline of annual precipitation. Thus, current water scarcity is mainly human-induced; however, climate change will aggravate the situation. As a consequence, severe environmental damage due to water scarcity is likely and could impinge on the quality of local tourism. The re-adjustment of current management routines is therefore essential. Possible adjustments are discussed and the analysis concludes with management recommendations for innovative regional water management of tourism facilities.     

Rural Development and Sustainable Wildlife Use in Peru

Abstract: Tropical conservation has seen a convergence between conservation projects and rural development, with both approaches promoting participation of local people in sustainable resource use. But there is a discord between rural development and sustainable use of wildlife. Implementing more sustainable use of wildlife usually means decreased economic benefits for rural people, especially over the short term. In contrast, rural-development projects are often mandated to generate income for rural people over the short term. We examined this dilemma through an integrated economic and harvest analysis of the costs associated with converting unsustainable hunting to more sustainable hunting in the Peruvian Amazon. Our analysis suggests that a change in hunting practice would have significant economic costs for rural people and would result in a 36% decrease in the economic benefits they derive from wildlife hunting. In contrast, converting unsustainable hunting to more sustainable hunting would have little effect on meat markets in the urban center of Iquitos, Peru, with markets losing only 3.6% of their economic value. There would be no economic costs for the international pelt trade. If rural-development projects absorb the short-term economic costs, they can help people convert unsustainable wildlife use to more sustainable use and assist rural people in realizing the long-term benefits of more sustainable hunting. But many rural-development projects would need to change their mandate for short-term income generation to incorporate the realities of sustainability.     

Poaching Risks in Community‐Based Natural Resource Management

Poaching can disrupt wildlife‐management efforts in community‐based natural resource management systems. Monitoring, estimating, and acquiring data on poaching is difficult. We used local‐stakeholder knowledge and poaching records to rank and map the risk of poaching incidents in 2 areas where natural resources are managed by community members in Caprivi, Namibia. We mapped local stakeholder perceptions of the risk of poaching, risk of wildlife damage to livelihoods, and wildlife distribution and compared these maps with spatially explicit records of poaching events. Recorded poaching events and stakeholder perceptions of where poaching occurred were not spatially correlated. However, the locations of documented poaching events were spatially correlated with areas that stakeholders perceived wildlife as a threat to their livelihoods. This result suggests poaching occurred in response to wildlife damage occurred. Local stakeholders thought that wildlife populations were at high risk of being poached and that poaching occurred where there was abundant wildlife. These findings suggest stakeholders were concerned about wildlife resources in their community and indicate a need for integrated and continued monitoring of poaching activities and further interventions at the wildlife‐agricultural interface. Involving stakeholders in the assessment of poaching risks promotes their participation in local conservation efforts, a central tenet of community‐based management. We considered stakeholders poaching informants, rather than suspects, and our technique was spatially explicit. Different strategies to reduce poaching are likely needed in different areas. For example, interventions that reduce human‐wildlife conflict may be required in residential areas, and increased and targeted patrolling may be required in more remote areas. Stakeholder‐generated maps of human‐wildlife interactions may be a valuable enforcement and intervention support tool. Riesgos de Cacería Furtiva en el Manejo de Recursos Naturales Basado en Comunidades     

The effect of land clearing on rainfall and fresh water resources in Western Australia: a multi-functional sustainability analysis

It is widely recognised that southwest Western Australia has experienced a decline in rainfall over the last 40 years. It is generally thought that this decline is due to natural periodic variations and changes induced by global warming, but recently evidence has emerged suggesting that a substantial part of the decline may be due to extensive logging close to the coast to make way for housing developments and the clearing of native vegetation for wheat planting on the higher ground. We compare coastal and inland rainfall to show empirically that 55% to 62% of the observed rainfall decline is the result of land clearing alone. Using the index of sustainable functionality, we show that the economic consequences associated with this change of land use on fresh water resource availability have been underestimated to date and disproportionately affect the environment and poorest members of the population.     

Wild meat trade over the last 45 years in the Peruvian Amazon

The trade in wild meat is an important economic component of rural people's livelihoods, but it has been perceived to be among the main causes of the decline of wildlife species. Recently, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought to light an additional concern of wildlife markets as a major human-health challenge. We analyzed data from the largest longitudinal monitoring (1973–2018) of the most important urban wild-meat markets in Iquitos, Peru, to examine the trends in and impacts of these markets on people's livelihoods. Over the last 45 years, wild meat sales increased at a rate of 6.4 t/year (SD 2.17), paralleling urban population growth. Wild meat sales were highest in 2018 (442 t), contributing US$2.6 million (0.76%) to the regional gross domestic product. Five species of ungulates and rodents accounted for 88.5% of the amount of biomass traded. Vulnerable and Endangered species represented 7.0% and 0.4% of individuals sold, respectively. Despite growth in sales, the contribution of wild meat to overall urban diet was constant: 1–2%/year of total meat consumed. This result was due to greater availability and higher consumption of cheaper meats (e.g., in 2018, poultry was 45.8% cheaper and was the most consumed meat) coupled with the lack of economic incentives to harvest wild meat species in rural areas. Most wild meat was sold salted or smoked, reducing the likelihood of foodborne diseases. Community-based wildlife management plans and the continued trade bans on primates and threatened taxa may avoid biodiversity loss. Considering the recent COVID-19 pandemic, future management plans should include potential viral hosts and regulation and enforcement of hygiene practices in wild-meat markets.     

Implications of ecological data constraints for integrated policy and livelihoods modelling: An example from East Kalimantan, Indonesia

Policy and human livelihoods modelling increasingly demands integrated research which requires ecological expertise. However, contributions from ecologists are often based on sparse data. Rather than discounting such data, in this paper we demonstrate how ecological modelling can effectively contribute to the development of policy recommendations in spite of data constraints. In a petrol subsidy analysis in East Kalimantan, Indonesia, we accounted for ecological data uncertainty by (a) assuming large parameter value ranges and (b) conducting a robustness test for policy recommendations. In addition to data scarcity, counter-intuitive results emerged emphasising the need for model validation. These counter-intuitive results indicated that decreasing petrol prices led to increased poverty. This informed a policy recommendation to prevent the reduction of petrol prices below IDR 5500 per litre. Using two key livelihood resources (fish and honey), we found that while a traditional sensitivity analysis suggested highly robust results, a robustness test indicated that policy recommendations would change if the incorrectness of parameter values approached 50%. The results show that ecological modelling can contribute effectively in spite of sparse data to guide policy, as well as identifying future research priorities.     

Rainfall-human-spatial interactions in a salinity-prone agricultural region of the Western Australian wheat-belt

To explore the complexity of temporal and spatial dynamics of an agricultural landscape under various external and internal driven scenarios, SimKat, an agent-based model, has been developed with the simulation computer program CORMAS. This model combines simplified bio-physical processes of land cover, regional dry-land salinity changes, rainfall impact on productivity, farm profitability and the complexity of land-use decisions of individual farmers in a dry-land agricultural catchment (no irrigation). In this model, simulated farmers formulate individual decisions dealing with land-use changes based on the combined performance of their past land cover productivity and market returns. The willingness to adapt to market drivers and the ability to maximize returns vary between farmers. In addition, farmers in the model can demonstrate various attitudes towards dry-land salinity mitigation as a consequence of experiencing and perceiving salinity on their farm, in the neighborhood or across the entire region. Consequently, farmers can adopt land cover strategies aimed at reducing dry-land salinity. Aggregating the simulated individual behavior of farmers combined with historical rainfall and market price records, reproduced similar aggregated trends of land-cover changes, regional salinity change and farm number decline as observed in the last 20 years in the subject region (Katanning, Western Australia). Using the model in an initial exploratory study on the impact of rainfall variability and change highlighted the importance of average rainfall decline and the widespread willingness of farmers to adapt perennial vegetation in their farming systems to combat regional dry-land salinity. Rainfall decline, as one of the observed consequences of climate change in this region, can also lead to prolonged sequences of dry seasons in the future. Adaptation by farmers to sequences of dry and wet seasons, rather than an average trend in rainfall, seems to be critical for farm survival in this region. Intensifying cropping during wet seasons to maximize farm returns can increase vulnerability in subsequent periods of dry seasons, in particular where alternative income from pasture and sheep production has been lost in the adaptation process.     

Fisheries co-management and poverty alleviation in the context of the sustainable livelihoods approach: A case study in the fishing communities of Aby lagoon in Cote d'Ivoire

The study used a combination of fairly standard and often overlapping participatory tools and techniques as well as SWOT analysis in the context of the sustainable livelihoods approach (SLA), which is emerging as a potentially useful way of looking at policies and institutions to address poverty. The adoption of fisheries co-management in Aby Lagoon in Cote d'Ivoire has contributed to improving the sense of ownership, empowerment and access of fishers and other stakeholders to resources. The fishers and other stakeholders attest that the arrangement has also contributed in enhancing the sustainable livelihoods and coping mechanisms against the incidence of poverty in the communities. Fishers would like legal empowerment to enforce fisheries regulations devised by themselves and also assistance to improve their work in collection of information and adaptive research upon which to base their plans. The co-management arrangement in Aby Lagoon is still evolving. However, the study testifies to the existence of many competent actors and to a great wealth and depth of relevant experience and lessons which other actors involved in poverty reduction strategies in small-scale fishing communities can draw on.     

The perpetual state of emergency that sacrifices protected areas in a changing climate

A modern challenge for conservation biology is to assess the consequences of policies that adhere to assumptions of stationarity (e.g., historic norms) in an era of global environmental change. Such policies may result in unexpected and surprising levels of mitigation given future climate‐change trajectories, especially as agriculture looks to protected areas to buffer against production losses during periods of environmental extremes. We assessed the potential impact of climate‐change scenarios on the rates at which grasslands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) are authorized for emergency harvesting (i.e., biomass removal) for agricultural use, which can occur when precipitation for the previous 4 months is below 40% of the normal or historical mean precipitation for that 4‐month period. We developed and analyzed scenarios under the condition that policy will continue to operate under assumptions of stationarity, thereby authorizing emergency biomass harvesting solely as a function of precipitation departure from historic norms. Model projections showed the historical likelihood of authorizing emergency biomass harvesting in any given year in the northern Great Plains was 33.28% based on long‐term weather records. Emergency biomass harvesting became the norm (>50% of years) in the scenario that reflected continued increases in emissions and a decrease in growing‐season precipitation, and areas in the Great Plains with higher historical mean annual rainfall were disproportionately affected and were subject to a greater increase in emergency biomass removal. Emergency biomass harvesting decreased only in the scenario with rapid reductions in emissions. Our scenario‐impact analysis indicated that biomass from lands enrolled in the CRP would be used primarily as a buffer for agriculture in an era of climatic change unless policy guidelines are adapted or climate‐change projections significantly depart from the current consensus.     

Operating mechanism and set pair analysis model of a sustainable water resources system

There is no alternative to the world’s water resources, and their increasing scarcity is making it difficult to meet the world population’s water needs. This paper presents a sustainable water resources system (SWRS) and analyzes the operating mechanism that makes it possible to evaluate the status of such a system. A SWRS can be described as a complex coupling system that integrates water resources, social, economic and ecological systems into a whole. The SWRS’s operating mechanism is composed of dynamic, resistance and coordination components, and it interacts with and controls the system’s evolution process. The study introduces a new approach, set pair analysis theory, to measure the state of a SWRS, and an evaluation index system is established using the subsystems and operating mechanism of a SWRS. The evaluation index system is separated into three levels (goal level, criteria level and index level) and divides the index standard into five grades. An evaluation model of the SWRS based on set pair analysis theory is constructed, and an example of SWRS evaluation in Shanghai is presented. The connection degrees of the index in the three levels are calculated, and the connection degree of the goal index is calculated to be 0.342, which classifies the city’s SWRS condition as grade 2. The sustainable use of water resources in the region is determined to be at a relatively adequate level that meets the requirements of sustainable development.     

Principles and processes for enhancing sustainable rural livelihoods: Collaborative learning in Uganda

Livelihood diversification is essential to food security and improved incomes for human development in African rural communities. Uganda's agrarian economy suffers from limited diversification, environmental degradation, low incomes, and multifaceted negative impacts of AIDS. Efforts to stimulate and support innovation in agricultural production technology, forms of social organization, and poor markets are essential elements in promotion of sustainable rural livelihoods. Iowa State University's Center for Sustainable Rural Livelihoods and its partner organizations are applying a multi-dimensional approach to engage Uganda farmers and rural leaders in community-based learning and capability strengthening. We describe the role played by livelihood diversification and explore the promotion of sustainable livelihoods through scholarship with praxis. Sustainable livelihoods concepts are examined as a means to better understand contemporary African rural development. We identify principles and processes critical to achieving sustainable livelihoods. Their application is highlighted based on our early collaborative experience, including a discussion of the complexities associated with entering into balanced partnerships required for a successful community-based program. We explore the value of social science perspectives and processes for strengthening rural development in developing countries.     

Addressing social attitudes toward lethal control of wildlife in national parks

The extraordinary population growth of certain ungulate species is increasingly a concern in agroforestry areas because overabundance may negatively affect natural environments and human livelihoods. However, society may have negative perceptions of killing wildlife to reduce their numbers and mitigate damage. We used an online survey that included a choice experiment to determine Spanish citizens’ (n = 190) preferences toward wildlife population control measures related to negative effects of ungulate overabundance (negative impacts on vegetation and other wildlife species and disease transmission to livestock) in 2 agroforestry national parks in Spain. We used latent-class and willingness-to-pay in space models to analyze survey results. Two percent of respondents thought a national park should have no human intervention even if lack of management may cause environmental degradation, whereas 95% of respondents favored efforts to reduce damage caused by overabundant ungulate species. We estimated human well-being losses of survey respondents when sustainable effects of deer overabundance on the environment became unsustainable effects and well-being gains when sustainable effects transitioned to no visible effects. We found that the type of wildlife-control program was a very relevant issue for the respondents; indirect control in which killing was avoided was the preferred action. Sixty-six percent of respondents agreed with the option of hunters paying for culling animals to reduce ungulate impacts rather than management cost coming out of taxes, whereas 19% of respondents were against this option and willing to pay for other solutions in national parks. Our results suggest that killing wildlife in national parks could be a socially acceptable tool to manage overabundance problems in certain contexts, but it could also generate social conflicts.     

The Decline of Amphibians in California's Great Central Valley

Declines in amphibian populations are rarely reported on the community or ecosystem level. We combined broad-scale field sampling with historical analyses of museum records to quantify amphibian declines in California's Great Central Valley. Overall, amphibians showed an unambiguous pattern of decline, although the intensity of decline varied both geographically and taxonomically. The greatest geographical decline was detected in the counties of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. Two species, Rana aurora and Bufo boreas were identified as the most affected by decline, whereas Pseudacris regilla was the least affected. The Coast Range counties had little or no detectable decline. We provide new evidence implicating introduced predators as a primary threat. Introduced predators occur at lower elevations than native species, and our data indicate that for some native species there has been significant restriction to higher elevation sites from a formerly broader distribution. Our historical approach provides a strategy for identifying declining amphibian communities that complements more detailed, long-term monitoring programs and provides an assessment of the pattern of change that is a necessary prerequisite for the development of field experiments that test hypothesized mechanisms of change.     

The perils of flawed science in wildlife trade literature

Despite broad scientific consensus that sustainable use of wildlife can enhance conservation efforts, ethical concerns have led some community groups to oppose use of wild animals. Voicing those concerns is legitimate, but underlying philosophical bias should not influence science-based analysis and interpretation. We argue that philosophical biases are common in the scientific literature on trade in wildlife. The critically important case of bias surrounding the use of reptile leathers for luxury fashion illustrates the problem. Based on analysis of official seizures of fashion products made from wildlife, a recent study inferred that criminal activity (as inferred by noncompliance with regulations) was common and increasing and, hence, that authorities needed to adopt more stringent restrictions on the trade. In fact, the conclusions of that study are artifacts of pseudoreplication (e.g., multiple counts of single violations) and biased sampling (e.g., focus on companies with high rates of error) and run directly opposite to actual patterns in the data. As a proportion of overall trade, rates of noncompliance are exceptionally low (<0.4%), are declining, and result primarily from paper-work errors rather than criminal intent (e.g., such errors are more frequent for goods shipped by government authorities than by the commercial fashion industry). The recommendation by the study authors to prohibit the international trade in wildlife-based fashion products is imperiling a sustainable trade that can benefit biodiversity and people's livelihoods by providing financial incentives for conservation of species and habitats. This example offers a warning of the dangers of basing research on the wildlife trade on ethical or philosophical positions rather than objective evaluations of evidence.     

Comparative aspects of mountain land resources management and sustainability: Case studies from India and Canada

India and Canada share a common heritage in natural resources management. Both have a colonial background, settlers and indigenous peoples; there is a history of management agencies with utilitarian attitudes, and a history of treating public lands as commodities for commerce rather than as resources for local livelihoods. This historical context guided the overall goal of this study, which was policy development for the sustainable use of mountain environments. Interviews, workshops and seminars were held with local people and resource management professionals in a comparative case study in two regions; the Kullu area in Himachal Pradesh, India and the Arrow Lakes area in British Columbia, Canada. The paper is organized around two main objectives of the work relating to the successes and failures of mountain environment resource management policies and the development of criteria for assessing and monitoring sustainability in mountain environments, in particular, criteria for examining relevant crosscultural dimensions of sustainable development in these environments. By way of conclusion the paper considers further ways in which traditional resource policy development and implementation is being challenged by changing values and priorities; ecosystems management with people; and co-management and public participation.