Transition management as a model for managing processes of co-evolution towards sustainable development

Sustainable development requires changes in socio-technical systems and wider societal change – in beliefs, values and governance that co-evolve with technology changes. In this article we present a practical model for managing processes of co-evolution: transition management. Transition management is a multilevel model of governance which shapes processes of co-evolution using visions, transition experiments and cycles of learning and adaptation. Transition management helps societies to transform themselves in a gradual, reflexive way through guided processes of variation and selection, the outcomes of which are stepping stones for further change. It shows that societies can break free from existing practices and technologies, by engaging in co-evolutionary steering. This is illustrated by the Dutch waste management transition. Perhaps transition management constitutes the third way that policy scientists have been looking for all the time, combining the advantages of incrementalism (based on mutual adaptation) with the advantages of planning (based on long-term objectives).     

An integrated sustainability decision-support framework Part II: Problem analysis

One of the main goals in decision-making for sustainable development is to identify and choose the most sustainable option among different alternatives. This process usually involves a large number of stakeholders with multiple, often conflicting objectives. Facilitating and resolving such difficult decision situations can be complex, so that a more formal and systematic approach to decision-making may be necessary. This paper proposes an integrated multiple criteria decision-support framework specifically developed to provide a systematic, step-by-step guidance to decision-makers. The framework, which is suitable for both corporate and public policy-making in the context of sustainable development, comprises three steps: problem structuring, problem analysis and problem resolution. This paper concentrates on problem analysis and resolution, where decision-makers articulate their preferences for different decision criteria. A suitable Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) technique, such as multi-objective optimisation, goal programming, value-based and outranking approaches, is then used to model the preferences. These techniques are discussed here in some detail, to provide guidance on the choice of the most appropriate MCDA method. Based on the outcome of preference modelling, which estimates the overall 'value' of each alternative being considered, decision-makers can then choose the 'best' or most sustainable option. Such an integrated decision-support framework is useful for providing structure to the debate, ensuring dialogue among decision-makers and showing trade-offs between conflicting objectives. In this way, it may be possible to create shared understanding about the issues, generate a sense of common purpose and, often, resolve 'difficult' decision problems.     

Potentialities,problems, policies and progress in modelling sustainable development: A dynamic,hierarchical approach

This paper discusses some of the potentials, problems, policies and progress in modelling sustainable development. After briefly describing ten approaches to modelling sustainable development, some of the methodological problems still to be resolved are addressed. It is then suggested that policies to promote sustainable development should operate at six different spatial levels connecting global, multinational, national, regional, local and individual. Attempting to model sustainable development in such a hierarchical manner is exceedingly difficult. One way of modelling sustainable development is to develop the concept of a sustainable corridor, combining ecological, economic and equity considerations in a hierarchical fashion and through space-time. A preliminary dynamic, hierarchical model is described connecting global and national patterns of development. Using global and national data for Scotland, the calibrated model, running under the business-as-usual scenario, shows that current development paths are unsustainable. It is shown that, by implementing a judicious choice of policies, a sustainable corridor for a global and a national system can be achieved. The ways in which this preliminary model can be developed to connect all six hierarchical levels are discussed.     

Under the shadow of Asian Brown Clouds: Unbalanced regional productivities in China and environmental concerns

China has seen rapid economic growth over the past two decades, but severe environmental problems have accompanied this, such as the looming danger of Asian Brown Clouds. This paper analyzes the regional development of China by examining economic performance and environmental factors. Technical efficiency and productivity changes in 31 regions of China are computed for the period 1997–2001. In the case of regional GDP, the fast-developing eastern (coastal) regions experience higher technical efficiency and productivity growth than the inland central and western regions. When environmental factors are incorporated, the eastern regions still perform better than inland regions, both from static and dynamic analysis. This phenomenon is termed the 'double deterioration' of the inland areas in China. Double deterioration is attributed to the lack of economic resources to replace highly-polluting production equipment and technology in those less developed regions.     

Towards sustainability: Objectives,strategies and barriers for cleaner production in China

The paper explores the objectives, strategies and barriers to cleaner production (CP) implementation in China. Successful demonstration projects in China have shown that CP is a strategy for reducing pollution and costs, increasing competitiveness and achieving an integrated balance between economic and environmental benefits. As such, it is an inevitable choice and important contribution to sustainable development. However, it has not progressed enough as a strategy for continuous improvement since its effects are limited to industrial sectors or regions. CP implementation can be assisted by further popularization, policy system improvement, perception and awareness raising and technology innovation. These dimensions are the key tasks and incentives for all levels of government, enterprises and social organizations in moving toward sustainability.     

Some approaches to the construction of a sustainable development index for the Philippines

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a convenient tool used in aggregating the indicators of sustainable development and providing indices where different weights are assigned to the various indicators. There are, however, problems in interpreting of indices, especially if time series data are used. This study explores the feasibility of applying recent developments in PCA of time series using Philippine data. We present the comparative advantages of SPCA (Sparse Principal Component Analysis) relative to averaging of an adequacy/inadequacy index and PCA in index construction from various indicators of sustainable development in the Philippines in terms of usefulness and validity of indices being developed. SPCA can attain sparse and non-overlapping loadings without losing a large amount of explained variance compared to PCA. Because of the non-overlapping contribution of variables in SPCA components, indices can have clear and mutually exclusive meanings, facilitating interpretation. Even with a more complicated algorithm, reduced dimensions and simpler interpretation of indices justify the advantages of SPCA over PCA in index construction. The indices are interpreted in terms of the milestone of sustainability in the Philippines. The resulting indices provide an adequate summary of the sustainable indicators and evidence of the importance of leadership and political will in sustainable development.     

Sustainable consumption American style: Nutrition education,active living and financial literacy

The 1992 Earth Summit highlighted the critical role of consumption in affluent nations as a source of global environmental deterioration. While most developed countries have begun over the past decade to grapple with the difficult challenges of reducing household demand for energy and materials, sustainable consumption has yet to attract substantive attention in the United States. There exist, however, several strategic openings that American proponents of more environmentally benign household provisioning could exploit to launch a public dialogue about the environmental implications of contemporary consumption. First, public health professionals have in recent years begun to make significant strides publicizing the nutritional inadequacy of the American diet and the contributory role it plays in elevating incidences of chronic disease. Second, the rapid increase in the rate of obesity in the country is now coming to be understood as a health problem that is attributable to the prevalence of sedentary lifestyles. Finally, there is growing public concern in the United States over the accumulation of unprecedented levels of consumer debt and the epidemic of personal bankruptcies. The intent of this paper is to highlight the need to consider the personal dimensions of everyday life when formulating strategies to foster more sustainable consumption.     

An integrated sustainability decision-support framework Part I: Problem structuring

One of the main goals in decision-making for sustainable development is to identify and choose the most sustainable option from among different alternatives. This process usually involves a large number of stakeholders with multiple, often conflicting, objectives. Facilitating and resolving such difficult decision situations can be complex, so that a more formal and systematic approach to decision-making may be necessary. This two-part paper proposes an integrated multiple criteria decision-support framework specifically developed to provide systematic, step-by-step guidance to decision-makers. The framework, which is suitable for both corporate and public policy-making in the context of sustainable development, comprises three steps: problem structuring, problem analysis and problem resolution. In this paper, the focus is on problem structuring while Part II concentrates on problem analysis and resolution. Problem structuring includes identification of stakeholders, sustainability issues and indicators relevant for a particular decision problem. Sustainability indicators are used as decision criteria for identifying and choosing the most sustainable option. In the problem analysis step, decision makers articulate their preferences for different decision criteria. A suitable Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) technique, such as multi-objective optimisation, goal programming, value-based and outranking approaches, is then used to model the preferences. These techniques are discussed in Part II, which also gives guidance on the choice of the most appropriate MCDA method. Based on the outcome of preference modelling, which estimates the overall 'value' of each alternative being considered, decision-makers can then choose the 'best' or most sustainable option. Such an integrated decision-support framework is useful for providing structure to the debate, ensuring dialogue among decision-makers and showing trade-offs between conflicting objectives. In this way, it may be possible to create shared understanding about the issues, generate a sense of common purpose, and often, resolve 'difficult' decision problems.     

Efficient air pollution abatement for regions in China

This paper computes the efficient air pollution abatement ratios of 30 regions in China during the period 1996–2002. Three air emissions (SO₂, soot and dust) are considered. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) with a single output (real GDP) and five inputs (labour, real capital stock, SO₂, dust and soot emissions) is used to compute the target emissions of each region for each year. The efficient abatement ratios of each region in each year are then obtained by dividing the target emission by the actual emission of an air pollutant. Our major findings are: 1. The eastern area is the most efficient region with respect to SO₂, soot and dust emissions in every year during the research period. 2. The eastern, central and western areas have the lowest, medium and highest 1996–2002 average target abatement ratios of SO₂ (22.09%, 42.23% and 57.58%), soot (26.19%, 56.34% and 66.37%) and dust (15.20%, 29.09% and 40.59%), respectively. 3. These results are consistent with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory, whereby a more developed area will use environmental goods more efficiently than a less developed area. 4. Compared to dust emission, the average target abatement ratios for SO₂ and soot emissions (as direct outcomes of burning coal) are relatively much higher for all three areas.     

Taking CO2 emissions into a country's productivity change: The Asian growth experience

A country's macroeconomic policies have two basic objectives: to provide its citizens with a means to make a better living and a preferable environment. For the past decades, accompanying its fantastic economic growth, fast-developing Asia has become one of the major contributors to the increase of global carbon dioxide emissions. This paper analyzes productivity growth of ten Asian countries, namely, China, Japan, the NIEs and the ASEAN-4, by examining their outputs from economic performance and environmental impact standpoints. Productivity growth and its components are calculated using the Malmquist index. There appears to be a widening gap between the productivity growth trends without/with CO₂ emissions of the ten Asian economies. This implies that the factor of productivity could be over-emphasized at great cost to the environment. A cross-country comparison analysis, considering CO₂ emissions, shows that the productivity of China and ASEAN-4 deteriorated while the productivity growth of Japan and NIEs performed much better.     

Ecological engineering for water in sustainable settlements construction

The components of a water system in a settlement should benefit the residents, environment and nature. Ecological engineering for water use in settlements is crucial for designing and constructing a sustainable community. This article discusses ecological engineering measures and technology case studies in China for systematic regulation of the multiple functions of water in a sustainable community. These methods include reusing all sources of water (rainwater, wastewater and surface water), separating water that has been used for different purposes, promoting nutrient cycling, and improving the self-purification of water by controlling pollutant loads.     

Methodology for an urban ecological footprint to evaluate sustainable development in China

The ecological footprint (EF) is a method for measuring sustainable development through ecological impact. A methodology is presented for predicting urban ecological footprints. Urban energy use and natural resource consumption were analyzed to calculate an EF based on land type (arable, pasture, forest, fossil energy land, built-up area and water area) and consumption (food, housing, transportation, goods, services and waste). The result was then compared with the local ecological carrying capacity to develop criteria for sustainable ecological footprints. Case studies of four cities in China (Guangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou and Yangzhou) illustrate the urban EF approach. The time series of EF in a case study of Guangzhou for 1991–2001 was analyzed and the consumption–land-use matrix of urban EF was established. The results show that the cities are ecologically unsustainable, with average ecological conflicts per capita of more than 2 ha. The urban EF method is useful to measure urban sustainable development and provides policy proposals for decision-making. However, the EF method still has limitations and weaknesses.     

Urban planning and sustainable development under transitional economy: a case study of Guangzhou

There are always conflicts between the need for conservation and economic growth in the developing countries. Planning plays a primary role in balancing these conflicts. This is particularly obvious in Chinese cities since China adopted its open door policy in 1978. Foreign investment has been a major driving force for rapid growth of the Chinese economy. Planners in China have been facing the dilemma of protecting the natural environment on the one hand while, on the other hand, supporting the overall national goal of attracting foreign investment to maintain continuous economic growth. The planning system in China, which has been largely based on a planned economy, soon found itself handicapped in safeguarding the environment from rapid industrialization and urbanization fostered by market forces. This paper takes Guangzhou as an example to study challenges to the planning system in Chinese cities in the past two decades of rapid economic growth and urbanization. By means of a case study on an industrial development within a protected orchard area in Guangzhou, this study illustrates the conflict between the need for rural conservation and the pressure for economic development in the Chinese cities. In particular, it analyzes the pressures on the present urban planning system in China in terms of the following categories: the emergence of private investors in urban development; the goal of pursuing a high economic growth rate; the implications of a transitional economy for urban planning; and the weakness of the present urban planning system. It concludes that the role of urban planning in China should change from simply providing guidelines on board land-use strategy, to a combination of a strategic plan with specific development control laws at the operational level. Finally, some recommendations are suggested as to how to improve the planning system in China.     

Living with living systems: The co-evolution of values and valuation

This article explores features of the environmental valuation process through a co-evolutionary approach. Based on established works concerning complexity, living systems, and social, economic, evolutionary and hierarchy theories, it is argued that a special form of recursive co-evolution takes place between articulated values and methods of value articulation, within the environmental valuation system. It is proposed that this co-evolutionary approach provides new insights into (1) the process of environmental preference formation and (2) the phenomenon of value incommensurability. Finally, it is suggested that this approach also reveals that monetary unit-based environmental valuation methods are counter-productive to their own purpose of 'taking the economic worth of un-priced environmental goods and service into account.' This constitutes a new critique of monetary valuation, which is not addressed by a pragmatic defence of the practice. It is suggested that, in lieu of monetary valuation, taking the economic worth of these phenomena into account may be better served by focusing efforts on the design of new value articulation methods that are capable of expressing their priceless economic worth.     

Achieving sustainable rural development in Southern China: the contribution of bamboo forestry

Bamboo forests, due to their special characteristics and ecological functions, play an important role in sustainable forest management and rural development in China. Over the past two decades, China has successfully established millions of hectares of bamboo forest, which has restored fragile ecosystems, provided benefits to local communities, alleviated rural poverty and eased timber shortages. However, there is potential for further improvements to the bamboo forest estate. This paper analyses the current state of bamboo forest resources and management, and the roles of the bamboo forest industry in social development, economic growth and ecosystem protection in China. We examine the main issues related to governance systems, local economic development and traditional management practices. Finally, we suggest some directions for future development.     

Sustainable shrimp fishery management recommendations for a coastal lagoon in Baja California Sur,Mexico

The Baja California Peninsula is considered México's most productive in terms of commercial fisheries. Very few quantitative assessments of the economic importance of this region exist, especially considering artisanal fisheries and their relationships with ecological data. Datasets from government records on shrimp capture in Magdalena Bay, an arid coastal lagoon of Baja California Sur were collected, analysed and correlated with ecological data. Over the 10-year period analysed, fisheries from Magdalena Bay made up 27.5% of the shrimp capture of the state, contributing over US$15.5 million to the economy of the country. The impressive value of this resource warrants considerable attention in the design of land-use plans for the future of the region. Analysis of ecological and economical data on shrimp fishery activities in the Magdalena Bay region enables us to propose recommendations to enhance the sustainable development of the local inhabitants. A thorough assessment of the potential value of alternative economic activities should be conducted to determine their potential to provide similar productive use of the natural resources of the region as the shrimp fishery. Also, from a more specific management viewpoint, harvest rates of small shrimp in the channels should be reduced.     

Multi-scale sustainability evaluation of natural resource management systems: Quantifying indicators for different scales of analysis and their trade-offs using linear programming

The purposes of this paper are: (a) to describe a framework designed for multi-scale sustainability evaluation of Natural Resource Management Systems (NRMS), and (b) to illustrate its application for quantitative analysis using linear programming. The framework described here is intended to contribute to the operationalisation of the concept of sustainability by supporting the processes of design, evaluation and implementation of alternative NRMS at different scales. In this paper, Linear Programming is used for the quantitative analysis of indicators and their trade-offs; using a schematised example, the basic characteristics of the Multi-scale Multiple Goal Linear Programming (M-MGLP) method are described. In M-MGLP, indicators pertaining to different scales of analysis can be set as objectives or constraints for the optimisation. In this way, stakeholders interacting in a specific region can be made aware of the consequences of alternative NRMS in terms of the different indicators at the same scale and/or for indicators at other scales of analysis. The paper ends with a discussion of the main strengths and limitations of the framework and, specifically, of linear programming.     

Sustainable development and systems thinking: A case study of a heritage city

The concept of sustainable cities is based on a development paradigm that recognizes that cities make an important contribution to social and economic development. System thinking, including hard and soft systems, can be used to provide a new perspective and tools to resolve questions. The 500-year-old heritage city of Udaipur in India, which has traditionally maintained the spirit of living in a sustainable manner, is now seeking sustainable development. This paper attempts to analyse the issues underlying sustainable development of Udaipur by applying CATWOE in order to comprehend the systemic elements of the city from a soft systems perspective.     

Strategies for the sustainable development of Lugu Lake region

Lugu Lake region, containing a plateau lake, and the unique matrichal society of the Mosuo, has become one of the most important areas for ecosystem conservation and cultural heritage protection in China. It is essential to pursue sustainable development in Lugu Lake region. However, rapid increases in the tourism industry have had negative influences on society, the economy and the environment of Lugu Lake region. Extensive concerns have been raised by numerous ecologists, economists and social scientists over recent years. Using systems analysis of major societal, economic and environmental problems, this paper advocates goals for realising sustainable development. A double-layer management model has been developed of regional ecosystem services, composed of natural ecosystem management and macro-control of society and the economy, and has been used to analyse the importance and feasibility of ecotourism development in Lugu Lake region. Constructive management measures and development strategies are then proposed to achieve sustainable development in Lugu Lake region.     

Principles and processes for enhancing sustainable rural livelihoods: Collaborative learning in Uganda

Livelihood diversification is essential to food security and improved incomes for human development in African rural communities. Uganda's agrarian economy suffers from limited diversification, environmental degradation, low incomes, and multifaceted negative impacts of AIDS. Efforts to stimulate and support innovation in agricultural production technology, forms of social organization, and poor markets are essential elements in promotion of sustainable rural livelihoods. Iowa State University's Center for Sustainable Rural Livelihoods and its partner organizations are applying a multi-dimensional approach to engage Uganda farmers and rural leaders in community-based learning and capability strengthening. We describe the role played by livelihood diversification and explore the promotion of sustainable livelihoods through scholarship with praxis. Sustainable livelihoods concepts are examined as a means to better understand contemporary African rural development. We identify principles and processes critical to achieving sustainable livelihoods. Their application is highlighted based on our early collaborative experience, including a discussion of the complexities associated with entering into balanced partnerships required for a successful community-based program. We explore the value of social science perspectives and processes for strengthening rural development in developing countries.