Study of county-level low-carbon standards in China based on carbon emissions per capita

ABSTRACT

Low-carbon development is an essential measure to combat climate change, and the establishment of low-carbon standards is an important means to achieve low-carbon development. Due to the differences in size and development level among counties of China, the applicability and fairness of county-level low-carbon standards are very important in this country. This study analyzed the trends of county-level carbon emissions in China, defined the peak value of carbon emissions per capita, summarized the characteristics of existing low-carbon standards, and proposed a fair county-level low-carbon standard based on carbon emissions per capita. The results of our analysis suggest that, under the constraints of carbon emissions reduction policies, China’s carbon emissions per capita will tend towards a stable range. Additionally, by referring to predictions results of the peak value of China’s carbon emissions per capita, it was determined that, in low-carbon development targets, China’s county-level carbon emissions per capita should be set within the range of 2–4 tons. Besides setting low-carbon standards, the Chinese government and private enterprises should develop low-carbon technologies as soon as possible and innovate management models to achieve the win–win situation of simultaneous economic growth and carbon emissions reduction.     

中国能源消费导致的CO2排放量的差异特征分析

运用一种不产生残差的方法——对数平均迪氏指数法LMDI(logarithmicmeanDivisiaindex),对中国部分省份、区域能源消费导致的二氧化碳排放量进行了分解分析。将二氧化碳排放总量的变化分解成五个主要影响因素,即化石燃料的排放系数、能源消费结构、能源强度、人均GDP和人口总数。研究表明我国各省(地区)的二氧化碳排放量在1996年后呈现零(或负)增长趋势,主要影响因素是能源强度的提高;各省(地区)的二氧化碳排放量地区差异显著。因此,要在全国实现二氧化碳排放量的总体减排,应从提高能源利用效率,调整产业结构,消除地区发展的不平衡,逐步改善能源消费结构等方面考虑。     

Long-run dynamics of renewable energy consumption on carbon emissions and economic growth in the European union

This paper examines long-run and short-run dynamics of renewable energy consumption on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and economic growth in the European Union. This study employs cointegration tests, Granger causality tests and vector error correction estimates to examine the direction of Granger causality, the long-run dynamics of economic growth and energy variables on carbon emissions. This study analyses time series data from the World Development Indicators over the period from1961 to 2012. The results of this study support a link between renewable energy consumption, economic growth, industrialization, exports and CO₂ emissions in the long-run and short-run. The results support that the sign of the long-run dynamics from the endogenous variables to the CO₂ emissions variable is negative and significant, which implies that the energy and environmental policies of the European Union aimed at curbing CO₂ emissions must have been effective in the long-term. Furthermore, renewable energy consumption and exports have significant negative impact on CO₂ emissions in the short-run. However, industrialization and economic growth have positive impact on CO₂ emissions in the short-run. The results suggest that both economic growth and industrialization must have been achieved at the cost of harming the environment. The finding suggests that the increasing consumption of renewable energy tends to play an important role in curbing carbon emissions in the region.     

1999—2009年我国不同收入水平下的碳排放差异分析

碳排放差异研究对于科学合理地制定我国节能减排政策具有重要的指导意义。在利用IPCC参考方法对中国1999—2009年期间各省（市）CO2排放量计算的基础上,引入Theil指数,定量分析了中国不同收入水平下的CO2省际差异及其与人均收入水平之间的关系。结果表明,1999—2003年中国人均CO2排放量随着人均收入水平的提高而增加,2003—2009年中国各收入水平省份的人均排放量近似于不规则的＂M＂型增长趋势,中等偏低收入省份的人均排放量迅速增加,并超过中等收入省份;不同收入水平省份之间和各省份内部的人均CO2排放水平均存在较大的差距,但省份之间的排放不平等水平明显大于省份内部的不平等水平。因此,中国在制定节能减排政策时,要充分考虑经济发展和人均收入水平的条件下,兼顾区域和省域碳排放的特征,制定合理有效的减排目标和计划。     

The determinants of CO2 emissions in MENA countries: a responsiveness scores approach

This paper examines the relationship among carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, GDP, and energy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries by using a Responsiveness Scores (RS) approach. Empirical results over the period 1971–2013 suggest that GDP per capita and energy consumption show positive RSs, while trade and urban population negative ones. Moreover, energy consumption and urban population reveal moderate increasing returns to scale, while GDP per capita exhibits decreasing positive returns. Furthermore, three-way factors analysis sets out that most of the countries lays on regions with moderate negative Total Responsiveness Scores (TRS). This means that when all factors are jointly increased, CO₂ emissions have a moderate decrease. In addition, some GCC countries present a different pattern compared to the average pattern of MENA countries. Finally, radar plots indicate that, overall, RS pattern over factors is moderately heterogeneous within GCC countries, with larger variability appearing in the response to urban population and GDP.     

The dynamic causal links between CO2 emissions from transport,real GDP,energy use and international tourism

This study examines the dynamic causality relationship between international tourism and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from transport, real gross domestic product and energy use. The vector error correction model and Granger causality test approach have been used to investigate these relationships for the top ten international tourism destinations spanning the period 1995–2013. Results reveal a unidirectional causality running from CO₂ emissions to economic growth without feedback; a bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy use; a bidirectional causality between international tourism and economic growth; and a bidirectional causality between international tourism and energy use. They also suggest that energy use and international tourism both contribute to the decrease of emissions level coming from transport sector, while economic growth leads to the increase of CO₂ emissions. This study can be used in policy recommendations by encouraging countries to use clean energy and to stimulate tourism sector for combating global warming.     

Decomposition analysis of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the iron and steel industry in China

This work aims to identify the main factors influencing the energy-related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the iron and steel industry in China during the period of 1995–2007. The logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) technique was applied with period-wise analysis and time-series analysis. Changes in energyrelated CO₂ emissions were decomposed into four factors: emission factor effect, energy structure effect, energy consumption effect, and the steel production effect. The results show that steel production is the major factor responsible for the rise in CO₂ emissions during the sampling period; on the other hand the energy consumption is the largest contributor to the decrease in CO₂ emissions. To a lesser extent, the emission factor and energy structure effects have both negative and positive contributions to CO₂ emissions, respectively. Policy implications are provided regarding the reduction of CO₂ emissions from the iron and steel industry in China, such as controlling the overgrowth of steel production, improving energy-saving technologies, and introducing low-carbon energy sources into the iron and steel industry.     

Carbon sequestration in Taiwan harvested wood products

This study, with FAOSTAT and Taiwan data sources, estimates Taiwan carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in harvested wood products (HWP) by applying the three accounting methods suggested by the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. The investigation also explores impulse responses of CO₂ emissions to economic factors. Results from FAOSTAT and Taiwan data demonstrate an inconsistent production approach (PA) in the signs of the estimated CO₂ emissions. Average contributions of HWP from 1990 to 2008 for the stock change approach (SCA), PA and atmospheric flow approach (AFA) in Taiwan are ?3.195 Tg, 0.412 Tg and 10.632 Tg CO₂ emissions, respectively. SCA has determined the Taiwan HWP as a carbon reservoir; in contrast, PA and AFA have determined Taiwan HWP as a CO₂ emission. The net forest products imports into Taiwan induce the inconsistent signs of HWP carbon sequestration among SCA, PA and AFA. The vector autoregressive model (VAR) results also indicate that real GDP per capita is crucial for SCA CO₂ emissions, followed by exchange rate.     

Impacts of inter-sectoral trade on carbon emissions—a case of China in 2007

With the increase in international trade, more attention has been given to quantifying the impacts of international trade on energy use and carbon emissions. Input-output analysis is a suitable tool for assessing resources or pollutants embodied in trade and it has become a critical tool for performing such analysis. This study estimated the national and sectoral carbon emissions embodied in Chinese international trade using the latest available China input-output table of 2007. The results showed that a significant exporting behavior of embodied carbon emissions existed in China??s trade. Over 1/3 of the emissions in Chinese domestic production processes were generated for exports in 2007. The net balance of emissions embodied in exports and imports accounted for nearly 30% of China??s domestic emissions, which means that any policy made to increase the exports would result in a significant growth of China??s domestic emissions. Since over half of China??s export trade is processing trade, the re-exported emissions could not be overlooked; otherwise, it would hard to capture the actual emissions generated abroad to obtain China??s domestic consumption. The enlargement of export scale is a primary driven factor to the rapid growth of China??s exported emissions. It is necessary for China to adjust its economic and industrial structure to reduce the dependence of economic growth on the export trade. However, when adjusting industry structures or making policies on carbon emission reduction, it will be more reasonable to consider the relationship between production and consumption, rather than just focus on the emission values of sectors?? direct production, as a large part of carbon emissions emitted by the principal direct polluters were generated to obtain the products which were required by other sectors.     

区域能源碳足迹计算模型比较研究——以湖北省为例

能源消费排放是最主要的碳排放来源,研究能源碳足迹重要理论和现实意义。如何准确计算和表征能源碳足迹的大小成为该研究领域的重要问题。在文献回顾的基础上,文章总结了3种目前应用较广泛的计算区域能源消费碳足迹的方法和模型,它们分别是碳汇法、净初级生产力改进模型和净生态系统生产力改进模型。分别介绍了其计算公式、输入参数和计算过程。以湖北省1998-2009年能源消费碳足迹的计算为例,分别用这几种方法计算了能源消费碳足迹的总量和人均碳足迹。得到的主要结论有：研究区域能源消费碳排放量增长较快,3种方法和模型计算得到的碳足迹总量和人均量从时间序列上看,整体变化趋势一致,碳足迹亦呈现快速增长。但3种模型计算出的碳足迹大小差异较大,碳汇法模型足迹最大,净生态系统生产力改进模型次之,净初级生产力改进模型结果最小,并且碳汇法的计算结果明显大于其他两种模型。计算结果差异的原因在于,传统碳汇法模型只考虑林地的碳吸收能力,忽略了区域其他用地类型的碳吸收能力。净初级生产力改进模型考虑了各种用地类型的吸收能力,但从生态系统来说忽略了异氧呼吸的碳释放,高估了区域的碳吸收能力。几种模型都运用了固定值或者平均统计量,未能考虑地域差异,同时未考虑各统计量随时间和气候等变化而变化的可能,存在一定的不合理性,这也是今后研究值得深人研究的方向。     

经济增长与农业碳排放关系的实证研究

研究首先基于农业投入与生产视角的6个主要方面碳源,测算了1993-2008年我国农业生产活动所导致的碳排放量,分析发现我国农业碳排放总量和强度分别年均增长率为4.08%、2.38%,但环比增速总体上处于阶段性下降态势。化肥、农药、农膜、农用柴油、灌溉、翻耕等导致碳排放年均递增率分别为3.45%、4.65%、7.20%、4.77%、1.22%、0.38%。进一步综合运用协整理论及误差修正模型,实证我国经济增长与农业碳排放之间的关系。结果表明：我国经济增长与农业碳排放总强度,以及经济增长与化肥、农药、农膜、农用柴油、翻耕等5类碳源导致的碳排放强度之间存在协整关系,且人均GDP每增加1%,农业碳排放总强度与化肥、农药、农膜、农用柴油、翻耕等碳源的碳排放强度分别增加1.72%、1.61%、1.18%、0.40%、2.48%和1.31%。最后,据此提出相关政策建议。     

Technological influences and abatement strategies for industrial sulphur dioxide in China

Industrial SO₂ is the most important air pollutant in China. This paper outlines the technological impacts on industrial SO₂ emissions in China in terms of: amount, intensity, structure of energy consumption and structure of energy-intensive industries. It shows that industrial SO₂ emissions have linear growth alongside increases in energy consumption, particularly the rise in coal consumption. The contribution of technological factors to decreases in the intensity of energy consumption is 25%, while the structural factor is 75%. The power industry accounts for 52.6% of total industrial SO₂. Optimisation of the structure of energy consumption can reduce SO₂ emissions by 1.98 million tonnes per year. We propose the following technological strategies for industrial SO₂ abatement: adjustment of the system and structure of thermal power generating units, acceleration of flue gas desulphurisation projects, transformation of industrial structures, development of eco-industries and a reduction in energy consumption per unit product. In addition, an effective way to abate industrial SO₂ emissions is to promote governance strategies to stricly enforce SO₂ emission standards, conduct emission trading, and formulate incentives for encouraging cleaner production and clean energy development.     

Taking CO2 emissions into a country's productivity change: The Asian growth experience

A country's macroeconomic policies have two basic objectives: to provide its citizens with a means to make a better living and a preferable environment. For the past decades, accompanying its fantastic economic growth, fast-developing Asia has become one of the major contributors to the increase of global carbon dioxide emissions. This paper analyzes productivity growth of ten Asian countries, namely, China, Japan, the NIEs and the ASEAN-4, by examining their outputs from economic performance and environmental impact standpoints. Productivity growth and its components are calculated using the Malmquist index. There appears to be a widening gap between the productivity growth trends without/with CO₂ emissions of the ten Asian economies. This implies that the factor of productivity could be over-emphasized at great cost to the environment. A cross-country comparison analysis, considering CO₂ emissions, shows that the productivity of China and ASEAN-4 deteriorated while the productivity growth of Japan and NIEs performed much better.     

Sustainability of Nations

SUMMARY

A method is presented to interrelate the development of economy, environment and social quality in communities. Economy and environment, in initial development stages, oppose each other. Social welfare and economy generally develop simultaneously. To assess overall progress in sustainable development, an integrated and quantifiable framework is presented which defines five levels of sustainability. Increasing sustainability is characterized by growing responsibility for the impacts of man's actions in space and time. Through increased eco-efficiency and changed awareness, nations and companies arrive at a synergistic relationship between environment and economy. It is indicated that social security benefits expenditure increases by a factor 3.5 and carbon dioxide emissions per capita decreases by a factor 3 at each higher level of sustainability. Quantified differences in sustainability levels of 24 nations are shown. Priorities for improving and safeguarding sustainability are indicated.     

Cointegration and causality: considering Iberian economic activity sectors to test the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis

Few studies have attempted to study the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis at the individual sector level using more than one sector at once. This paper investigates the existence of the EKC hypothesis in the Iberian countries (Portugal and Spain) using thirteen economic activity sectors for each, analyzing each individual sector’s cointegration and causality relationships considering carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, sector gross value added and energy consumption. The findings of this paper using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach only validate cointegration in six Portuguese sectors and in five of the Spanish sectors. Results confirm both short- and long-run bi-directional and unidirectional causality between economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions, using the error correction model (ECM) and Toda and Yamamoto’s causality approaches. Moreover, results for Portuguese and Spanish sectors indicate an inverted U-shaped relationship only for one sector each. In some sectors there was evidence of a U-shaped relationship and in others the EKC hypothesis could be verified but no statistical significance was obtained. The study has significant contributions for sector policy, including implications to curtail energy pollutants by implementing environmental friendly regulations to sustain economic development at the sector level in the Iberian market. It also allows inferences to be made about the existence of different behaviors in comparative terms for the same economic activity sectors of the individual countries.     

The relationships among tourism development,energy demand,and growth factors in developed and developing countries

The objective of the study is to explore the different factors that affect tourism development in the panel of 34 developed and developing countries, over the period of 2005–2013. Energy consumption, air pollution, health expenditures, and economic growth played a vital role to change tourism development indicators in the region. The results confirmed the long-run association between the energy, environment, growth, and tourism indicators in the panel of selected 34 countries. The results of fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) indicate that health expenditures have a positive relationship with the tourism indicators, while energy consumption exerts a negative association with the tourism indicators in the region. The results of dynamic ordinary least squares regression also confirmed the same results of FMOLS regarding health expenditures and energy consumption, that is, positive and negative impacts on the tourism indicators. However, carbon dioxide emissions exert a positive relationship with the tourism indicators in the region.     

Tourism effects on the environment and economic sustainability of sub-Saharan Africa

This paper integrates tourism, economic growth, and environmental issues in a multivariate format. Unlike recent research on this topic, a panel data of selected sample nations of sub-Saharan Africa is adopted by using cointegration and panel regression models. The current research discovers both long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics between economic growth, tourism, energy use, and carbon emissions in sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, tourism and energy use show a highly significant direct impact on economic growth. In addition, tourism, energy use, and economic growth yield a highly significant positive effect on carbon emissions. Dissecting the region into oil producers and non-oil producers further suggests that the economic growth of sub-Saharan Africa has been accomplished by strong growth in tourism and energy use. However, there is highly significant evidence that in oil producing countries, CO₂ emissions are directly affected by energy use and economic growth and not by tourism. For non-oil producing countries, tourism and energy use but not economic growth incur a highly significant positive impact on carbon emissions.     

Analysis of household energy consumption and related CO2 emissions in the disregarded villages of Lijiang City,China

Energy is one of the most important elements required for poverty alleviation and socioeconomic development, and it has a particularly strong impact on households in rural areas. An extensive survey on household energy consumption patterns that interrelates socioeconomic and demographic factors was conducted in the disregarded villages of Lijiang City by using the stratified random sampling technique for 120 households. This study focuses on household energy consumption and the related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the study area. Firewood, biogas, and electricity were identified as the main energy sources of the rural households. This study demonstrates that 100% of the households use firewood, 52% use biogas, and 95% use electricity as fuel types. On average, each household consumed 1752 kg of firewood, 280 m³ of biogas, and 392 kWh of electricity annually. All households generated an annual average amount of CO₂ emissions of 3851 kg, of which 85.08% come from firewood, 7.66% from biogas, and 7.26% from electricity. Family size, income, and educational level were found to be the major factors that influence CO₂ emissions. The results of this study may be useful in explaining the energy consumption characteristics in the rural areas of Lijiang City and are expected to be useful in policy formulation for energy consumption and environmental protection.     

Analysis of driving forces behind diversified carbon dioxide emission patterns in regions of the mainland of China

China has large regional disparities in carbon dioxide CO₂ emissions with economic development among its 31 provincial mainland regions. This paper investigates these disparities in CO₂ emission patterns and identifies the factors underlying the differences. Results show that the 30 study China's mainland provinces (Tibet not included) can be divided into seven groups with three typical CO₂ emission patterns. Index decomposition results indicate that changes in economic development, the industrial sector, and technology contribute far more to increased CO₂ emissions than do population, energy structure, and other sectors. Close inspection reveals that different industry structures and technology contribute greatly to the differences observed in CO₂ emissions between provinces with similar economic output. This study highlights the importance of region-specific industrial structure adjustment policies, especially for regions transitioning to heavy industry and for those still in the primary stages of industrialization. The potential application of a domestic carbon emissions trading system, to encourage regional investment in updated technology, is also discussed.     

A decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions: evidence from Malaysia’s tourism industry

The most important question raised from issues of environmental degradation is how economic activities bring about changes that will result in pollution. In the pursuit of tourism economy, contrary to popular interest, the travel and tourism (T&T) industry may cause environmental damages through the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from energy consumption in areas such as transportation and delivery of amenities. Given this major concern, this paper attempts to investigate the linkage between tourism and CO₂ emissions in Malaysia between 1981 and 2011. In particular, this study fills the knowledge gap by taking a closer look at the impact of international tourist arrivals on CO₂ emissions by sector – electricity and heat generation and transport. Results from the bound test method suggest that there exists a long-run relationship among the variables under consideration when CO₂ emissions become the dependent variable. The original result is similarly robust to alternatives, which are CO₂ emissions from sectors of electricity and heat generation and transport. Furthermore, the vector error correction model causality analysis indicates a causal relationship between tourism and CO₂ emissions by transport and electricity and heat generation. Subsequently, several tourism-related policies are drawn from these findings.