Evaluating multi-stakeholder perceptions of project impacts: a participatory value-based multi-criteria approach

This paper describes a participatory multi-stakeholder impact assessment approach based on the concept of a value tree (VT), generated using the value focused thinking method (VFT) developed by Keeney (1992 Keeney, R. 1992. Value-focused thinking, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]). This approach allows stakeholders to specify impact parameters to be evaluated, which in the context of the VT, are organized as goals, objectives and alternatives. The approach is implemented in two phases: Phase I is designed to formulate stakeholders' collective VT following VFT concepts and the cognitive mapping method, and Phase II is a participatory valuation approach based on the VT formed in Phase I. The VT and the VFT concepts are adopted as tools to capture different stakeholders' values, goals and perceptions. The resulting VT is structured as a hierarchy between goals and objectives, and a network consisting of relationships, linkages and cross-impacts of the different alternatives and objectives. The hierarchy and network structure enables stakeholders to decompose complex assessment problem into ‘smaller’ units, which makes for easier and clearer assessment context, without ignoring linkages of the units or assessment elements. The second phase allows stakeholders to express their preferences with respect to each assessment element, through a voting system that ultimately leads to measures of importance or relative weights associated with each element. A modified Analytic Hierarchy Process (called Analytic Network Process) was used to distill relative weights from the voting results. Results obtained from a case study in a Zimbabwean community forest show that the proposed approach is easy to implement and can address questions about whether a project can lead to a positive change in attitudes, and whether the changes actually lead to a propensity to adopt alternatives that the project supports (e.g. conservation-oriented alternatives).     

Visions for the future of transport: Approaching consensus?

Many cities and national authorities have made substantial progress in developing transport strategies to reconcile environmental pressures with the increasing demand for travel. However, there is still some doubt as to what are the key ingredients of a successful strategy and progress in implementing such changes has been slow. Research is needed to better understand what are the essential ingredients to a balanced transport policy, the constraints, which are preventing these from being implemented, and the acceptability of such changes. This paper reports on the outcomes of a project funded under the Rees Jeffreys Road Fund research programme 'From Realism to Reality', which aims to identify the elements necessary for a successful transport policy in the UK into the 21st century, The project seeks to develop a vision for the transport system of the future through an understanding of the extent of the current problems in the transport sector and an examination of the range and effectiveness of options and instruments available to resolve them. The paper examines a range of visions that are currently in the public domain. Results show that there is a degree of consistency in the general aims and objectives of such visions, but that there is rather less consensus in the means proposed to achieve those aims.     

Achieving environmental goals in a world of trade and hidden action: the role of trade policies and eco-labeling

Importing countries often resort to trade policies and consumer actions in order to reduce negative environmental impacts of the products they consume. Traditionally, these policies were non-discriminatory, i.e., they treated all imports equally, without considering the actual damages caused by the product. More recently, there is a trend towards process-discriminatory policies which attempt to discriminate against environmentally unsound imports while encouraging sound alternatives. We develop a theoretical model of the consuming country's optimal trade policy, allowing for asymmetric information and costly monitoring, and analyze what type of policy is preferable under what conditions.     

Practical sustainability criteria for decision-making

SUMMARY

The new paradigm of sustainability necessitates revisions to traditional decision-making processes. This paper, which is the first in a series of four, outlines the changes required for decision-making to reflect sustainability concerns. Three sustainability criteria, that are the focus of the three subsequent papers, are introduced and the rationale for each is explained. A framework for incorporating the three sustainability criteria into the decision-making process is briefly outlined. The paper ends with the introduction to a case study, the North Central Project (NCP) for electricity supply alternatives. The NCP is used in the three following papers to demonstrate the individual components of the new approach to sustainable decision-making.     

Environmental education,community mobilization and sustainable development in Hong Kong: a comparative perspective

SUMMARY

This paper focuses on efforts to promote environmental education and community mobilization around environmental issues in Hong Kong. It is primarily concerned with efforts directed at the broader community (i.e. the population as a whole) rather than with environmental education through formal school and college curricula. The paper draws on a recently completed study commissioned by the Environmental Campaign Committee, the principal source of financial support for such efforts undertaken by environmental NGOs, community groups and educational institutions in Hong Kong. The study examined how and to what effect the Committee had used its financial resources between 1994–1999. It also examined international experience with a view to recommending changes in the overall approach to environmental education and community mobilization initiatives and their funding in Hong Kong.

The paper suggests that the existing approach to community-wide environmental education and its funding in Hong Kong have suffered from various weaknesses, most notably the absence of an integrated and goal-oriented strategy, an over-reliance on a ‘top-down’ campaign-based approach, a failure to establish explicit linkages with the concept of sustainable development and to ground initiatives at the local neighbourhood and community levels, and a preoccupation with the financial inputs provided to support this work at the expense of effective monitoring and auditing of project outputs and benefits.     

Sustainable development and cultural theory

SUMMARY

What is sustainable development? Why is at an issue? Ideally, what needs to be done? and Practically, what can be done? are answered here by relying on the cultural theory of Mary Douglas and her colleagues, more especially Aaron Wildavsky and Michael Thompson, both of whom have used the model to address sustainable development. The implications of cultural theory for sustainable development are substantial.

The article is divided into five sections. The first describes the current controversy over sustainable development. The second sets out the cultural theory model, and the third applies that model to reformulate our understanding of sustainable development. The fourth draws out the implications of a reformulated sustainable development, while the conclusion uses those implications to answer the four questions that started the article.     

Assessment of community-based initiatives in sustainable management of Indian dry deciduous forests

SUMMARY

This work is devoted to analyzing the pros and cons of the proposed San Ignacio Lagoon (SIL) salt production project in Baja California Sur, México. The analysis of the project was done taking into account the technical data of the main potential effects of the SIL project, and by comparing the SIL proposed actions with the data of Ojo de Liebre Lagoon, where an almost identical salt production project has been operating for more than 44 years. The analysis was done from the following perspectives: biodiversity, biosphere reserve management, and socioeconomic development. The resulting analysis of the pros and cons of the SIL salt production project addresses key aspects of sustainable development in Third World nations. The resulting analysis indicates that the SIL salt production project is compatible with the biodiversity conservation of the zone. The SIL salt production project seems to be one of the best options to attain the sustainable use of natural resources of the most arid and isolated zone of all México.     

Nest-seeking rock ants (Temnothorax albipennis) trade off sediment packing density and structural integrity for ease of cavity excavation

We investigated excavation and nest site choice across sediment-filled cavities in the ant Temnothorax albipennis. Colonies were presented with sediment-filled cavities, covering a spectrum from ones that should be quick to excavate but will form a weak enclosing wall to those that should be slow to excavate but form a strong wall. Overall, colonies only showed a significant preference for cavities that were fastest to excavate over those that were slowest. The speed of decision making and moving appears paramount over the suitability of the sediment for forming an enclosing wall. The mechanism behind the choice is the differential between the rates at which alternatives are excavated and accumulate ants. The rates for a particular type of cavity were unaffected by the type with which it was paired. This suggests that there is no significant competition between sites during the decision-making process. Certain colonies were able consistently to discriminate across more closely matched alternatives. These colonies required a greater number of ants to be present and took longer before beginning to move. A race is run between alternatives to become habitable but the process may be tuned across colonies such that it may run for longer and an incorrect or split decision is less likely.     

The risks and benefits of signalling aggressive motivation: a study of cave-dwelling little blue penguins

Summary Cave-dwelling little blue penguins, Eudyptula minor, use a large repertoire of agonistic displays. Both qualitative and quantitative measures suggested that some displays were more dangerous to perform than others (estimated by the risk of being injured by one's opponent). A lag sequential analysis of interactions indicated a positive relationship between the risks of performing a display and the display's effectiveness (i.e., in deterring opponents). The cost or risk asymmetries that exist between displays may allow opponents to assess how motivated the actor is to secure or defend resources. Thus, high cost displays are more effective because they reveal a willingness to take risks and also place the opponent in a higher risk situation. Communicating in this way can be an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) because signalling a strong motivation entails using potentially costly behavior (i.e., there are costs associated with bluffing). Also, displays that were accompanied by calls were more effective in deterring opponents than the same displays performed silently. Calls may highlight the risks being taken by actors; this may be particularly important in nocturnal species like little blue penguins. Aggressive displays could also be used to predict what the actor was and was not likely to do following the performance of the display. Generally, aggressive displays predicted that the actor would escalate to a higher risk behavior if the opponent did not retreat, but that it would use a lower risk behavior if the opponent backed down. However, risk-based displays should be seen as revealing a certain level of motivation at the time of the display and not as a way of describing how great a risk the actor is willing to take following the display. The predictive value of displays appears to be the result of an escalation process which ensures that opponents are deterred by the lowest risk behavior possible.     

Enhancement of association of organic molecules on silica gel by surface water: surface photoreaction of stilbene

Here, we show that association of stilbene molecules is facilitated by water on silica gel because of hydrophobic interaction and photodimerization becomes the main photochemical process. Irradiation of trans-stilbene (t-1) on silica gel gives cis-stilbene (c-1), phenanthrene (2), benzaldehyde (3), and dimers r-ctt-4 and r-tct-4. The yields of the dimers increase and those of 2 and 3 decrease with an increase in the amount of t-1 loaded on silica gel. Atmospheric oxygen is responsible for the formation of 2 and 3. The yields of the dimers also increase with an increase in the water on a silica-gel surface and change drastically at the point where the percentage of water to silica gel is around 25 wt%. All active sites on a silica-gel surface would be covered completely with 25 wt% of water.     

Farmers' perceptions of constraints to plantain production in Ghana

SUMMARY

Plantain (Musa AAB), a primary food crop in Ghana, is a key component in sustainable agricultural systems in high rainfall zones. Recently, there has been a substantial yield decline and reduction in plantation life. To elucidate the context in which intervention strategies should be developed, a Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) was conducted at five villages in the major plantain-producing belt of Ghana. The importance of plantain as a preferred food was confirmed, although farmers tended to sell plantain for cash income, using cheaper, less preferred alternatives for home consumption. Farmers identified decreasing soil fertility, the high cost of labour for weeding, pests and diseases, lack of good quality planting material and marketing-related issues as the major production constraints. Due to declining productivity in less fertile regions, plantain has been replaced with other food crops such as cassava and maize. Farmers overestimated the importance of insect pests but were unaware of the extensive damage that could be caused by nematodes and the foliar disease, black sigatoka. They observed, however, that pest damage is more severe when soil fertility is poor. Clearly, integrated pest management is likely to be most effective when practiced within the context of cropping systems management; sustainable strategies that are being developed for resource-limited plantain farmers in Ghana are discussed.     

Indicators of sustainability as a tool in agricultural development: partitioning scientific and participatory processes

SUMMARY

Sustainable indicators have become popular tools by which policymakers can assess progress towards a more sustainable agriculture. Varying approaches to defining sustainability lead to disagreement about the value of indicators and yet some form of measurement is required so that society can judge the effects of policy. Environmental and social problems and their causes span national boundaries. An international framework for assessing agricultural activities, their effects and the pressures that drive those activities is therefore required. However, a guiding principle of the UN Agenda for Sustainable Development is that global problems require local action. Thus, indicators must provide information for policymakers as well as guidance for farmers and other practitioners. Many indicator programmes currently proposed do not provide this level of guidance as no evaluation as to what level of activity is sustainable has been agreed. A model is presented, to show how scientific and political or participatory approaches may be combined to meet the multiple objectives of involving people, maintaining scientific integrity and providing guidance for policymakers and practitioners alike.     

Evolving patterns of agricultural frontier expansion in Mexico’s Chihuahuan Desert: a political ecology approach

ABSTRACT

This study sought to understand why and how the area of irrigated agriculture in Janos County, in northwestern Chihuahua, Mexico, has tripled since 1987. Expansion of agricultural frontiers has often been attributed to state policies and programs or von Thünian land-rent dynamics. Here, a political ecology approach relying on qualitative interviews with landowners was used to understand the drivers and patterns of conversion from native rangeland to crops. Results show that socioeconomic patterns of agricultural frontier expansion evolved over time, with different drivers at different phases. State policies, especially the land reform, were initially important for settling the agriculture frontier in small farms. Subsequently, economic differentiation, intensification, and growth of existing farms drove expansion. Since 2010, expansion has been driven by investment-oriented land purchases by absentee owners and larger-than-family farms. The Janos case details what may be common but underappreciated temporal dynamics at agricultural frontiers.     

Using MCA tools for evaluating community-managed forests from a green economy perspective: lessons from Nepal

ABSTRACT

Nepal is in the process of formulating its forest policies at the provincial level . Various community-managed forests have been designed in the past by the Nepal government to decentralize the forest for its sustainable management practice. This study facilitates the process of identifying appropriate forest management options in two of the provinces, namely Provinces Three and Gandaki. Four forest management options – passive, active, scientific and multiple – were identified following the existing management practices. For the evaluation of the overall performance of the options, a framework with three criteria, 10 indicators and 28 verifiers were designed. The framework followed the green economy perspective considering the improvement of the forest conditions, economic and social well-being, and low carbon emission. The Analytical Hierarchy Process was used to prioritize the best management option and analyse trade-offs to guide future decision-making and reduce the risk of unwanted consequences. Our results show that the elicitation of preferences for the evaluation criteria varied by stakeholder groups. Their preference was largely guided by improving the forest resource condition and economic well-being. Foresters prefer scientific and active forest management, policymakers prefer multiple-use forest management and scientific management, whereas community forest user groups prefer active forest management. We argue that a scientific management approach may contribute better to economic aspects, although it may often compromise the other aspects. The multiple forest management option seems to be the best for green economy considering ecological, economic and social consequences.     

Evolution,variability and sustainable development

SUMMARY

Sustainable development is a global challenge to science and society. In politics and economics the concepts for establishing a sustainable society are numerous, nonetheless necessary interdisciplinary approaches are still marginalised. Trying to foster a deeper communication between biology and social science, an evolutionary perspective on sustainable development is offered. Subsequently, the role of variability and diversity in evolution is highlighted. Hereby, special attention is devoted, among other things, to the links between variability and stability in the long term. Next, selection and variability are emphasised in the cultural context. This is followed by general implications for sustainability. In contrast to strategies aiming at short-term optimisation and economic efficiency, we argue that the conditions and circumstances maintaining variability and momentary sub-optimal alternatives are highly relevant for a socio-economic system that is heading for sustainable development.     

Applicability of Montreal Process Criterion 4 — soil and water conservation — to rangeland sustainability

SUMMARY

Criterion 4 of the Montreal Process addresses the conservation of soil and water resources as a way to assess the sustainability of a nation's forests. For the most part, the indicators under this criterion are relevant to rangelands. The area and percent of rangeland with significant soil erosion apply equally well to both biomes. Percent of streams with flow rates and timing outside its range of historical variation is also equally important, although a measure of proper functioning and condition may provide a better measure of the indicator. The area and percent of rangeland with diminished soil productive capability because of a loss of reduced organic matter or changed physical characteristics can be useful indicators locally and regionally.     

Use of landscape and land use parameters for classification and characterization of watersheds in the mid-Atlantic across five physiographic provinces

The Atlantic Slope Consortium (ASC) is a project designed to develop and test a set of indicators in coastal systems that are ecologically appropriate, economically reasonable, and relevant to society. The suite of indicators will produce integrated assessments of the condition, health and sustainability of aquatic ecosystems based on ecological and socioeconomic information compiled at the scale of estuarine segments and small watersheds. The research mandate of the ASC project is the following:

Using a universe of watersheds, covering a range of social choices, we ask two questions:

• ? How “good” can the environment be, given those social choices?
• ? What is the intellectual model of condition within those choices, i.e., what are the causes of condition and what are the steps for improvement?

As a basis for compiling ecological indicators, a watershed classification system was required for the experimental design. The goal was to develop approximately five categories of watersheds for each physiographic province, utilizing landscape and land use parameters that would be predictive of aquatic resource condition. All 14-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) watersheds in the Mid-Atlantic region would then be classified according to the regime. Five parameters were utilized for the classification: three land cover categories, consisting of forested, agricultural, and urban, median slope or median elevation, and total variance of land covers in 1-km-radius circles positioned on all stream convergence points in a specified 14-digit?HUC watershed. Cluster analysis utilizing these five parameters resulted in approximately five well-defined watershed classes per physiographic province. The distribution of all watersheds in the Mid-Atlantic region across these categories provides a unique report on the probable condition of watersheds in the region.     

Proposing an information criterion for individual-based models developed in a pattern-oriented modelling framework

Individual-based models (IBMs) have been improved in quality and reliability in recent years with an approach called pattern-oriented modelling (POM). POM proposes guidelines to develop models reproducing multiple patterns observed on the field and to test systematically how well the IBMs reproduce them. POM studies used generally traditional methods of goodness of fit such as the sum of squares evaluation or ad hoc comparisons of fitting errors and variations. Model selection, however, can be a rigorous statistical approach based on information theory and information criteria such as the Akaike's information criterion (AIC) or the deviance information criterion (DIC). So far, it has not been tried to link POM to these rigorous techniques. The main problems to achieve that are: (a) the difficulty to have likelihood functions for IBMs’ parameters and (b) the possibility to obtain posterior distributions of IBMs’ parameters given the patterns to reproduce. In a first part, this paper answers problem (a) by proposing and explaining how to calculate a deviance measure (POMDEV) for models developed in a context of POM. And while answering the second problem, a second part of the paper proposes an information criterion for model selection in a POM context (the pattern-oriented modelling information criterion: POMIC). This criterion does not yet have the same theoretical foundation as, e.g., AIC, but uses formal analogies to the DIC. In a third part POMIC is tested with a modelling exercise. This exercise shows the potential of POMIC to use multiple patterns for selecting among multiple potential submodels and eventually select the most parsimonious and well fitting model version. We conclude that POMIC, although being a heuristically derived approach, can greatly improve the POM framework.     

The neglected burden of agricultural intensification: a contribution to the debate on land-use change

ABSTRACT

Between 1992 and 2015 Argentina lost 17% of its tree cover. Regionally, deforestation continues, but net forest loss recently came to a halt. Some scholars argue that this was facilitated by industrial agricultural intensification. This view is debated, but we focus on the neglected costs associated with this intensification. An almost tenfold increase of pesticide use in Argentina during the last two decades caused the pollution of soil, water and sediments. The widespread use of pesticides is impairing the health of agricultural workers and people living near agricultural fields, and is putting the health of vulnerable parts of the population (children and pregnant women) at risk. More than 50 pesticide active ingredients marketed in Argentina have been banned in the European Union for safety reasons. We contend that health and pollution aspects need to be taken into account when assessing the benefits and drawbacks of different types of land use.     

How unpredictable is the individual scanning process in socially foraging mammals?

In group-forming prey species, theory assumes that individuals within groups should scan independently of one another, with vigilance sequences being relatively unpredictable, making interscan durations highly variable. We attempted to detect any divergence from randomness in the scanning process in three mammalian prey species phylogenetically and geographically separated and exposed to different levels of predation: waterbuck, Kobus ellipsiprymnus defassa, under a high observed predation risk, eastern grey kangaroo, Macropus giganteus, still experiencing occasional predation and European roe deer, Capreolus capreolus, under a very low natural predation risk. Our results revealed that the focal interscan duration increased when the duration of the preceding interscan increased, whatever the studied species and the predation risk that its individuals experienced, and decreased with the preceding scan duration in two species under, respectively, occasional and low predation risks. The exponential distribution was the tested model that fitted the observed distributions of interscan durations least well. We discuss what can trigger non-randomness in scanning, through a non-homogenous Poisson process, at both intra-individual and inter-individual levels, particularly with regard to previous studies that have demonstrated synchronisation of vigilance in such mammals. Our results suggest the need to reconsider any assumption of randomness in scanning in the basic model predicting form and frequency of scanning behaviour by prey species.