Predicting China's cultivated land resources and supporting capacity in the twenty-first century

In recent years, China's cultivated land has been shrinking, a change which has become one of the potential challenges to national sustainable development and global food security. In our research, we have predicted China's cultivated land resources for the next 50 years, based on scrutiny of systematic data and analyses of the loss of cultivated land. We have also designed an indicator of cultivated land equivalent per capita (CLEPC) to assess the capacity of cultivated land to support our population. The results show that China's cultivated land will decline to a minimum of 113.31 million ha between 2001–2010, while cultivated land per capita will decline from 0.101 ha to 0.083 ha. After 2010, the area of cultivated land will begin to increase slowly to 118.98 million ha in 2050. However, cultivated land per capita will still decline to 0.079 ha between 2010–2030; after 2030, it will start to increase and reach 0.085 ha in 2050. In contrast to the total area and per capita area of cultivated land, the CLEPC will remain at 0.101 ha between 2001–2010, and then increase to 0.156 ha in 2050. Overall, there will be increasing stress on China's cultivated land during the next two or three decades. Although the supporting capacity of cultivated land may not decline obviously with improvement in agricultural technology and infrastructure, China has to make great efforts to reduce the loss of cultivated land and to improve its productivity to ensure food security in the near future.     

Industrial land expansion in rural China threatens environmental securities

• China’s rural industrial land (RIL) area quadrupled from 1990 to 2015. • RIL expansion cost 9% of China’s crop production and threatened human/ecosystem safety. • The underprivileged population bears a disproportionally large share of the risks. China’s rural industrialization has been a major driver for its rapid economic growth during the recent decades, but its myriad environmental risks are yet to be fully understood. Based on a comprehensive national land-use data set, our study shows that the area of China’s rural industrial land (RIL) quadrupled during 1990–2015, reaching 39000 km² in 2015, comparable to urbanization in magnitude but with a much greater degree of landscape fragmentation which implies stronger ecological and environmental impacts. About 91% of the protected areas in the central China were within 50 km from rural industrial land, thus exposed to industrial disturbances. Accelerated rural industrial land expansion, particularly in regions under high geo-hazard risks, led to dramatically increased environmental risks, threatening the safety and health of both rural industrial workers and residents. Moreover, negative effects from rural industrial land expansion could partially offset the crop production growth in recent decades. The underprivileged rural population in the west bears a disproportionally large share of the increased environmental risks. China urgently needs to design and implement sustainable policies to restrict and reshape its rural industrialization. This study aims to inspire policy makers and researchers to rethink the current model of industrial expansion and improve rural industrial land planning, which is important for achieving the sustainable development goals of China.     

Temporal and spatial patterns and driving factors of cultivated land change in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau北大核心CSCD

随着经济快速发展、城镇化进程加快以及人口基数不断增加,在城市用地不断向外扩张以及生态退耕措施的影响下,耕地面积呈逐年减小的趋势.这一现象加剧了农业发展与其他要素间的矛盾,对区域粮食安全也产生重要影响,因此,探讨耕地面积时空变化及其驱动机制对保障区域粮食安全具有现实意义.分析青藏高原地区1980年、1990年、2000年、2010年、2018年的耕地面积数据,结合户籍人口、地区生产总值(GDP)、粮食单产等统计年鉴资料解析影响其变化的主要驱动因子.结果表明:(1)青藏高原近40年耕地面积变化总体经历缓慢增加、显著增加和缓慢递减3个阶段,整个变化过程中耕地主要流失方向为林地和草地,分别占总流失面积的50.99%和32.02%,主要原因为退耕还林还草等政策的实施,其次为建设用地和水域增加.(2)耕地转为非耕地的地区主要集中在四川西部、云南西北部、青海东部,而耕地转入地区主要集中在青藏高原中部.以地市州来看,拉萨、海东、海西、阿坝、林芝等地区耕地面积变化特征以缓慢递增为主;西宁、黄南、甘孜、甘南等地区的耕地面积则呈缓慢递减的变化趋势.(3)主成分分析和结构方程模型结果显示影响耕地面积减少的主要驱动因素包括经济社会发展和粮食生产.其中经济和社会因素对耕地面积变化产生的影响为负值,社会因素产生的负影响最大,为-0.224,人口基数增长、建设用地扩张、土地利用转型要求以及二、三产业红利的吸引都会导致耕地面积减小.本研究揭示了青藏高原地区近40年耕地变化情况及流失方向,耕地面积波动主要受到经济社会因素以及政策因素的影响;上述结果可为今后国家粮食安全及当地生态环境可持续发展提供理论参考.(图7表8参45)     

China's dairy crisis: impacts,causes and policy implications for a sustainable dairy industry

The dairy industry is an important part of the global economy, and the rapidly developing dairy enterprises in China have become increasingly important to the rest of the world. Due to increasing demand for dairy products and support from the government, China's dairy industry has thrived in recent decades. But rapid growth has been accompanied by a suite of industry/structural problems associated with raw milk supply, processing enterprises, product retailing and profit allocation. Thus, a major dairy crisis took place in 2008, triggered by a notorious melamine-contaminated milk event. The dairy crisis has had devastating impacts on China's dairy industry, negatively affecting farmers, consumers, processing enterprises and even government agencies. The Chinese government has developed rigorous measures to prevent future incidents of this sort, including the enactment of the Food Safety Law and reinstatement of the no-exemption quality inspection of food products. In this paper, we analyse the wide-ranging impacts and root causes of the recent dairy crisis in China. We also examine how the crisis has been handled and what measures have been put in place in its aftermath. Then we discuss policy implications for promoting the sustainability of China's dairy industry. Lessons learned from this crisis, as well as implications for policy improvements, should be valuable for the development of a sustainable dairy industry in other regions of the world.     

粮食安全与耕地的关系

粮食安全是关系到长治久安，社会稳定的大事，而耕地是粮食生产的主要载体。在广东省目前耕地面积不断减少，并且耕地质量面临下降的情况下，各级政府有责任采取各项措施，加大对耕地质量改良的投入。只有提高了耕地质量，才能确保广东省的粮食安全。     

The potential role of virtual water in solving water scarcity and food security problems in China

Water, as a source of food security, plays an essential role in ensuring sustainable food resources for a growing population. However, water scarcity has increasingly become a constraint to economic development, particularly food production. The water-food challenge is impending because of China's increasing population and water demand. The concept of virtual water is useful to analyze this problem. In this paper, the implications and policy relevance of virtual water are expounded. Based on imported food volumes, it is calculated that an annual average of 10.52 × 10⁹ m³ of virtual water embodied in imported wheat and maize in the period between 1990 and 2000 is equivalent to 23% of the annual average transfer water volume of the South-North Water Transfer (SNWT) project. Consequently, this 29.3 × 10⁶ ha of virtual land is equivalent to 19% of China's arable land in 2000. Using the grain import prediction and the agricultural production conditions of China, the virtual water equivalents of China in 2010 and 2020 are evaluated, and are about 88 × 10⁹ m³ in 2010 and 95 × 10⁹ m³ in 2020, respectively. Importing virtual water embedded in traded food can alleviate water stress and even achieve food security. Virtual water trade may compensate for water demands for not only the past but also the future. Meanwhile, water trade can store water in its virtual water form, enabling food storage to play a potential role in solving food problems, as well as promoting sustainability of water resources in China.     

安徽省耕地资源利用分析

根据安徽省生态环境现状调查的结果 ,耕地是安徽省主要的土地利用类型。由于经济建设、生态建设、经济利益的驱动和有限的后备资源 ,耕地面积逐年减少 ;肥力不足、土壤退化、水土流失等因素影响了安徽省耕地资源质量 ;低的生态占用表明该省人口数量已给环境造成巨大的生态压力 ,人地矛盾日趋突出。粮食的安全保障依赖于耕地的高强度利用、化肥的大量施用和有效灌溉面积的扩大。加强土地管理 ,严格执法 ,合理规划用地 ,以科学技术来提高粮食的单产水平和土地利用的集约化程度 ,是耕地可持续利用的保证。     

中国土地生产力变化的情景分析

中国土地生产力变化态势是当前国内外学术界、决策界关注的焦点问题之一.介绍了土地生产力估算系统(ESLP)的原理与功能模块并利用该系统研究了中国土地生产力的变化态势.ESLP是在气温、降水、辐射水平、土壤质地等自然因素控制下,受土地利用方向与强度影响的,考虑土地系统不同的投入水平和管理措施的区域土地生产力估算系统.ESLP关注土地生产力变化的时空动态,能表达出不同投入管理水平下土地生产力的时空变化.文章应用ESLP研究了1988年和2000年中国土地生产力变化及其空间分异特征,将估算结果与1988年和2000年全国分县粮食产量数据的比较与验证表明,基于ESLP估算的各县土地生产力与各县粮食总产量具有很高的相关性,在一定程度上反映一个区域的粮食生产能力.在此基础上,应用ESLP预测了2010与2020年在气候变化情景下土地生产力的变化,预测结果显示,虽然局部地区土地生产力有小幅减少趋势,但从全国来看,土地生产力增长趋势明显.平均来看,2010年比2000年增长4.4%,而到2020年,土地生产力的增长幅度达到10.7%.不过在各个农业生态分区上,不同年份土地生产力变化差异较大,在2010年和2020年长江中下游区土地生产力均呈一定幅度的下降,而甘新区和西藏区只在2010年土地生产力有小幅下降.该研究结论对我国编制土地利用规划与粮食生产方面的决策具有重要的参考价值.     

Can domestic production of iLUC-free feedstock from arable land supply Sweden’s future demand for biofuels?

The increasing biofuel production from agricultural crops has been suggested to cause indirect land use change (iLUC). This increases interest in biofuel feedstocks that qualify as iLUC-free: (1) residues without a market, (2) crops from previously unused arable land, (3) additional crops and (4) biomass from intensified production. In the present study, biofuel potential from such feedstocks was quantified for Sweden and compared against the predicted biofuel demand from agricultural resources in 2030. The results indicate that straw (category 1) could cover up to 37% of future biofuel demand. Grass leys from intensified production (category 4), set-aside and abandoned land (category 2) and excess grass silage (category 1) could cover up to 79%. Intermediate and ecological focus area crops (category 3) could contribute up to 21%. To realize the biofuel targets, a high implementation rate of additional iLUC-free feedstock is needed. Future studies need to investigate impacts of low-iLUC policies.     

Changes in area and number of nature reserves in China

Nature reserves (NR) are the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation. Over the past 60 years, the rapid expansion of NRs in China, one of the world's megadiverse countries, has played a critical role in slowing biodiversity loss. We examined the changes in the number and area of China's NRs from 1956 to 2014 and analyzed the effect of economic development on the expansion of China's NRs from 2005 to 2014 with linear models. Despite a continuing increase in the number of NRs, the total area of China's NRs decreased by 3% from 2007 to 2014. This loss resulted from downsizing and degazettement of existing NRs and a slowdown in the establishment of new ones. Nature reserves in regions with rapid economic development exhibited a greater decrease in area, suggesting that downsizing and degazettement of NRs are closely related to the intensifying competition between economic growth and conservation. For example, boundary adjustments to national NRs, the most strictly protected NRs, along the coast of China's Yellow Sea, a global biodiversity hotspot with a fast-growing economy, resulted in the loss of one-third of the total area. One of the most important ecosystems in these NRs, tidal wetlands, decreased by 27.8% because of boundary adjustments and by 25.2% because of land reclamation. Our results suggest conservation achievement, in terms of both area and quality, are declining at least in some regions in the Chinese NR estate. Although the designation of protected areas that are primarily managed for sustainable use has increased rapidly in recent years in China, we propose that NRs with biodiversity conservation as their main function should not be replaced or weakened.     

Economics of Grassland Conversion to Cropland in the Prairie Pothole Region

Abstract: Much of the remaining grassland, particularly in North America, is privately owned, and its conversion to cultivated cropland is largely driven by economics. An understanding of why landowners convert grassland to cropland could facilitate more effective design of grassland‐conservation programs. We built an empirical model of land‐use change in the Prairie Pothole Region (north‐central United States) to estimate the probability of grassland conversion to alternative agricultural land uses, including cultivated crops. Conversion was largely driven by landscape characteristics and the economic returns of alternative uses. Our estimate of the probability of grassland conversion to cultivated crops (1.33% on average from 1979 to 1997) was higher than past estimates (0.4%). Our model also predicted that grassland‐conversion probabilities will increase if agricultural commodity prices continue to follow the trends observed from 2001 to 2006 (0.93% probability of grassland conversion to cultivated crops in 2006 to 1.5% in 2011). Thus, nearly 121 million ha (30 million acres) of grassland could be converted by 2011. Conversion probabilities, however, are spatially heterogeneous (range 0.2% to 3%), depending on characteristics of a parcel (e.g., soil quality and economic returns). Grassland parcels with relatively high‐quality land for agricultural production are more likely to be converted to cultivated crops than lower‐quality parcels and are more responsive to changes in the economic returns on alternative agricultural land uses (i.e., conversion probability increases by a larger magnitude for high‐quality parcels when economics returns to alternative uses increase). Our results suggest that grassland conservation programs could be proactively targeted toward high‐risk parcels by anticipating changes in economic returns, such as could occur if a new biofuel processing plant were to be built in an area.     

Driving mechanism and boundary control of urban sprawl

Since the reform and opening-up, China’s economy has achieved remarkable development and so does the urbanization. However, there is an unavoidable contradiction between urban sprawl and the protection of arable land and the environment. By redefining the urban sprawl boundary, this paper is to provide a solution for the conflict above on the China’s urbanization context. The ideal boundary, moderate boundary and limit boundary are defined for urban sprawl in space. Taking Nanjing city as a case, the three urban sprawl boundaries are estimated in this paper based on the calculation of agricultural land resources value in Nanjing. The results show that 1) the integrated value of agricultural (cultivated) land resources in Nanjing is 1.55 × 10⁷ CNY·hm⁻², the economic value accounts for only 8.74% of the integrated value, while 91.26% of the integrated value has not revealed itself due to the existing institutional arrangements, policy distortions, and imperfect land market; 2) it is difficult to define the ideal and moderate boundaries due to the relatively low price of North Nanjing. In South Nanjing the land price is expensive and the ideal, moderate and limit boundaries are expanded to Jiangning, Qixia, and Yuhuatai; 3) the city scale of South Nanjing should be limited within 5.82 × 10⁴ hm², which is roughly the same as the designated size of 5.81 × 10⁴ hm² in the urban planning. It is suggested that the rational scope of urban expansion should be controlled within the moderate boundary.     

Expansion of sugarcane ethanol production in Brazil: environmental and social challenges.

Several geopolitical factors, aggravated by worries of global warming, have been fueling the search for and production of renewable energy worldwide for the past few years. Such demand for renewable energy is likely to benefit the sugarcane ethanol industry in Brazil, not only because sugarcane ethanol has a positive energetic balance and relatively low production costs, but also because Brazilian ethanol has been successfully produced and used as biofuel in the country since the 1970s. However, environmental and social impacts associated with ethanol production in Brazil can become important obstacles to sustainable biofuel production worldwide. Atmospheric pollution from burning of sugarcane for harvesting, degradation of soils and aquatic systems, and the exploitation of cane cutters are among the issues that deserve immediate attention from the Brazilian government and international societies. The expansion of sugarcane crops to the areas presently cultivated for soybeans also represent an environmental threat, because it may increase deforestation pressure from soybean crops in the Amazon region. In this paper, we discuss environmental and social issues linked to the expansion of sugarcane in Brazil for ethanol production, and we provide recommendations to help policy makers and the Brazilian government establish new initiatives to produce a code for ethanol production that is environmentally sustainable and economically fair. Recommendations include proper planning and environmental risk assessments for the expansion of sugarcane to new regions such as Central Brazil, improvement of land use practices to reduce soil erosion and nitrogen pollution, proper protection of streams and riparian ecosystems, banning of sugarcane burning practices, and fair working conditions for sugarcane cutters. We also support the creation of a more constructive approach for international stakeholders and trade organizations to promote sustainable development for biofuel production in developing countries such as Brazil. Finally, we support the inclusion of environmental values in the price of biofuels in order to discourage excessive replacement of natural ecosystems such as forests, wetlands, and pasture by bioenergy crops.     

基于SPOT—VGT的黄河流域植被覆盖时空演变

植被是土地覆盖中的最主要部分,是连接土壤、大气和生物等要素的自然“纽带”。植被覆盖动态变化对全球能量循环和物质循环具有重要影响,是全球变化研究的重要内容之一。黄河流域作为我国重要的粮食生产基地,其环境变化直接影响到流域经济的可持续发展。为了快速准确地提取地表植被状况,了解黄河流域生态环境,利用1998—2011年的SPOT-VGT遥感数据,结合地理信息技术,采用均值法和趋势分析法对黄河流域植被NDVI时空分布特征和变化趋势进行了动态监测。结果表明,（1）黄河流域14年NDVI均值的空间分布整体特征是东南部平原、盆地和西部山地植被状况要好于北部地区。其次,黄河流域属于干旱半干旱地区,植被发育主要依赖于水文条件,所以沿黄河干流和支流区域也具有较高的植被NDVI值。（2）黄河流域植被NDVl年均值近14年间整体呈缓慢增长趋势,1998--2000年呈现急剧减少态势,2001--2003年出现了较为快速的增长,2004--2011年又出现了较长时间的连续增长过程。（3）黄河流域植被NDVI基本不变的区域约占研究区总面积的71．13％;植被NDVI轻微改善的区域约占流域总面积的27．30％,且主要分布于流域东南部的盆地、平原和西部的山地、丘陵地区,植被NDVI退化的区域面积约占流域总面积的0．98％。黄河流域自1998年以来,植被NDVI整体在不断提高,生态环境在不断改善。     

湖南省生态足迹与生态承载力的动态变化分析

生态足迹是定量研究区域可持续发展的一种重要方法。为了定量评价湖南省可持续发展程度的动态变化,利用生态足迹理论,计算分析了湖南省1998--2006年间的生态足迹变化过程。结果表明,湖南省人均生态足迹由1998年的1．2441hm。上升至2006年的1．6377hm^2;人均生态承载力由1998年的0．4819hm^2减少为2006年的0．4556hm^2,人均生态赤字由1998年的0．7622hm0上升到2006年的1．1821hm0。生态赤字逐年提高,生态足迹与生态承载力之间的矛盾加剧,区域生态环境处于不安全状态。生态足迹供需结构分析表明,湖南省人均生态足迹供需存在严重的不平衡,其需求以草地、耕地是构成湖南省人均生态足迹的主要组成部分,分别占人均生态足迹的30．11％～37．34％以及29．83％-33．53％,其次是化石能源地（17．60％～22．85％）。而供给以耕地为主,占人均生态承载力的51．02％～53．23％。研究期间万元GDP生态足迹总体上呈下降趋势,表明湖南省的资源利用率不断提高。同时根据生态盈亏的影响因素,并结合湖南省经济发展现状和资源分布特点,探讨了降低和消除区域生态赤字的措施建议。     

Roles of digital technology in China's sustainable forestry development

China has the fifth largest forest area in the world and any change in China's forestry development will have inevitable impacts on global ecological sustainability. China has undergone excessive logging of natural forests and also made tremendous efforts in afforestation during the past half century. China's forestry is now going through a variety of transitions and several forestry programs have been implemented to drive forestry transitions. The goal of these actions is to protect ecological services of forests and sustain China's forestry development. These forestry programs are spatially sophisticated and cannot be successfully implemented without accurate and transparent forest/forestry information. A variety of digital technologies, including forest modeling, remote sensing, geographic information systems, global positioning systems, and visualization, have been applied in handling diverse information in China's forestry. Digital forestry is not just a theoretical concept in China. Our digital forestry experience in northeast China suggests that digital technology is both usable and useful in China's forestry development. Digital technology is playing an important interactive role in China's top-down forestry administration system. The analog-to-digital transition in technology is expected to lead to the success of forestry programs and forestry transitions in China.     

Strategies to combat desertification for the twenty-first century in China

SUMMARY

During the past half century, China has experienced increasingly severe land degradation, soil erosion, and desert expansion. Desertification is affecting one third of China's total territory and the annual accelerating rate of desertification spread is as high as 2460 km² in China. In 1996, China developed a National Action Programme to Combat Desertification (NAP), which is aimed to apply new legal measures and technical approaches to slow down desertification processes and achieve a long-term goal — control desertification and alleviate poverty through continuous efforts to fight against desertification, stabilize mobile dunes, revegetate degraded rangeland and control soil erosion in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas. The long-term and integrated strategies of China's NAP result in encouragement of social participation, legal institutional guarantees, policy making, and establishment of demonstrations/pilot projects to combat desertification at both national and provincial level.     

Market interactions,farmers' choices,and the sustainability of growing advanced biofuels: a missing perspective?

Advanced biofuels such as cellulosic ethanol are of great interest in the USA. With agriculture being the major source of feedstock for advanced biofuels, how farmers would respond to markets and policy incentives in providing such feedstock can directly affect sufficient and sustainable supply of advanced biofuels and their environmental sustainability. In this study, we developed an economic model to examine farmers' production choices in a context where agricultural markets are linked to energy markets. We identified the economic conditions under which farmers could maximize their profits by converting current grain cropland to grow cellulosic biomass crops. An empirical illustration showed that with current technology, farmers are unlikely to grow switchgrass as a dedicated energy crop instead of corn on cropland. The biofuel incentives in the 2008 Farm Bill can improve the competitiveness of switchgrass, but may stimulate corn production as well, with corn residues as an alternative feedstock for advanced biofuels. The continuous, possibly expanding, corn production in future raises the same issues for advanced biofuels as for corn grain-based ethanol. To assure the environmental sustainability of advanced biofuel production, further research is needed to help design environmental policies alongside existing biofuel initiatives.     

Energy,population, and agricultural productivity in Iran

Solar energy feeds all life on this planet's surface. The energy of the Sun can be tapped and converted to the different forms of energy by renewable energy systems, such as solar power plants, photovoltaic systems, and plants. Land is needed for food production, which is the most globally important activity. With increasing population, the required area is determined by consumption and production patterns. The world is globally divided into poor and rich areas of production and consumption, which have large differences. Iran's energy and food production and consumption are studied and compare with poor and rich examples. It is concluded that available agricultural land is limited and currently declining per capita due to population growth. The expansion of irrigated crop area, high-quality seed, and modern farming techniques can marginally improve agricultural productivity and provide relative self-sufficiency in grain production. Much of the growth in Iran's renewable energy is attributed to hydroelectricity power plants. Solar energy, wind, hydro and geothermal energy are also potential forms of sustainable energy in Iran.     

近50年来三江平原北部土地利用/土地覆被变化及生态效应分析

土地利用/覆被变化在全球变化中占有重要地位,对于综合模拟和评价环境问题非常重要。区域案例研究方法是土地利用/土地覆被的研究核心,以中尺度的三江平原北部作为研究区域,重建并分析了自1954年以来该地区4个时段的土地利用/土地覆被格局及其时空演化过程,在此基础上重点分析了20世纪50年代以来耕地的开发过程。结果表明1954年到2000年期间,以湿地、草地和林地转换成耕地为该区域土地利用/土地覆被变化的主要形式,耕地面积由占总面积的5.29%上升到51.81%,同时湿地占总面积的52.49%下降到15.71%,并指出人类的农垦活动是湿地减少和生态环境恶化的根本原因。