Desert pastoralists’ negative and positive effects on rare wildlife in the Gobi

In arid regions of the developing world, pastoralists and livestock commonly inhabit protected areas, resulting in human–wildlife conflict. Conflict is inextricably linked to the ecological processes shaping relationships between pastoralists and native herbivores and carnivores. To elucidate relationships underpinning human–wildlife conflict, we synthesized 15 years of ecological and ethnographic data from Ikh Nart Nature Reserve in Mongolia's Gobi steppe. The density of argali (Ovis ammon), the world's largest wild sheep, at Ikh Nart was among the highest in Mongolia, yet livestock were >90% of ungulate biomass and dogs >90% of large‐carnivore biomass. For argali, pastoral activities decreased food availability, increased mortality from dog predation, and potentially increased disease risk. Isotope analyses indicated that livestock accounted for >50% of the diet of the majority of gray wolves (Canis lupus) and up to 90% of diet in 25% of sampled wolves (n = 8). Livestock composed at least 96% of ungulate prey in the single wolf pack for which we collected species‐specific prey data. Interviews with pastoralists indicated that wolves annually killed 1–4% of Ikh Nart's livestock, and pastoralists killed wolves in retribution. Pastoralists reduced wolf survival by killing them, but their livestock were an abundant food source for wolves. Consequently, wolf density appeared to be largely decoupled from argali density, and pastoralists had indirect effects on argali that could be negative if pastoralists increased wolf density (apparent competition) or positive if pastoralists decreased wolf predation (apparent facilitation). Ikh Nart's argali population was stable despite these threats, but livestock are increasingly dominant numerically and functionally relative to argali. To support both native wildlife and pastoral livelihoods, we suggest training dogs to not kill argali, community insurance against livestock losses to wolves, reintroducing key native prey species to hotspots of human–wolf conflict, and developing incentives for pastoralists to reduce livestock density.     

Mobility in pastoral systems: Dynamic flux or downward trend?

Several interdependent strategies have allowed pastoralists to survive for centuries in patchy and unpredictable low-productivity environments while sustaining their resource base: mobility, diversity, flexibility, reciprocity and reserves. Recent decades have witnessed curtailed mobility due to agricultural expansion into rangelands, the establishment and enforcement of political and administrative boundaries, the usurpation of local institutional control and disruption of local practices, increased labour costs, and the development of stationary goods and services. Pastoralists have responded by becoming sedentary, diversifying or intensifying their production strategies, leaving the herding sector, or adapting and transforming their practices and institutions. While these trends may be significant, an historical precedence of ebbs and surges in mobility indicates they may not be new or unidirectional. Emerging political trends and technologies may provide an opportunity for pastoral populations to maintain or increase their mobility in the future, but will the customary pastoral institutions that support sustainable practices still be viable, or will new, viable institutions emerge? These institutions are often subtle, contextual, and norm-based; 'invisible' and easily dismantled or replaced by more authoritarian regimes. There is relatively little understanding of how they work or how to support them. Without them, the trend may be towards open access or privatization.     

Assisted species migration and hybridization to conserve cold-adapted plants under climate change

Temperature rise due to climate change is putting many arctic and alpine plants at risk of extinction because their ability to react is outpaced by the speed of climate change. We considered assisted species migration (ASM) and hybridization as methods to conserve cold-adapted species (or the genes thereof) and to minimize the potential perturbation of ecosystems due to climate change. Assisted species migration is the deliberate movement of individuals from their current location to where the species’ ecological requirements will be matched under climate projections. Hybridization refers to crossbreeding of closely related species, where for arctic and alpine plants, 1 parent is the threatened cold-adapted and the other its reproductively compatible, warm-adapted sibling. Traditionally, hybridization is viewed as negative and leading to a loss of biodiversity, even though hybridization has increased biodiversity over geological times. Furthermore, the incorporation of warm-adapted genes into a hybrid may be the only means for the persistence of increasingly more maladapted, cold-adapted species. If approached with thorough consideration of fitness-related parameters of the source population and acknowledgement of the important role hybridization has played in shaping current biodiversity, ASM and hybridization could help save partial or whole genomes of key cold-adapted species at risk due to climate change with minimal negative effects on ecosystem functioning.     

Relation between extinction and assisted colonization of plants in the arctic‐alpine and boreal regions

Assisted colonization of vascular plants is considered by many ecologists an important tool to preserve biodiversity threatened by climate change. I argue that assisted colonization may have negative consequences in arctic‐alpine and boreal regions. The observed slow movement of plants toward the north has been an argument for assisted colonization. However, these range shifts may be slow because for many plants microclimatic warming (ignored by advocates of assisted colonization) has been smaller than macroclimatic warming. Arctic‐alpine and boreal plants may have limited possibilities to disperse farther north or to higher elevations. I suggest that arctic‐alpine species are more likely to be driven to extinction because of competitive exclusion by southern species than by increasing temperatures. If so, the future existence of arctic‐alpine and boreal flora may depend on delaying or preventing the migration of plants toward the north to allow northern species to evolve to survive in a warmer climate. In the arctic‐alpine region, preventing the dispersal of trees and shrubs may be the most important method to mitigate the negative effects of climate change. The purported conservation benefits of assisted colonization should not be used to promote the migration of invasive species by forestry.     

Identifying climate change refugia for South American biodiversity

Refugia-based conservation offers long-term effectiveness and minimize uncertainty on strategies for climate change adaptation. We used distribution modelling to identify climate change refugia for 617 terrestrial mammals and to quantify the role of protected areas (PAs) in providing refugia across South America. To do so, we compared species potential distribution across different scenarios of climate change, highlighting those regions likely to retain suitable climatic conditions by year 2090, and explored the proportion of refugia inside PAs. Moist tropical forests in high-elevation areas with complex topography concentrated the highest local diversity of species refugia, although regionally important refugia centers occurred elsewhere. Andean–Amazon forests contained climate change refugia for more than half of the continental species’ pool and for up to 87 species locally (17 × 17 km² grid cell). The highlands of the southern Atlantic Forest also included megadiverse refugia for up to 76 species per cell. Almost half of the species that may find refugia in the Atlantic Forest will do so in a single region—the Serra do Mar and Serra do Espinhaço. Most of the refugia we identified, however, were not in PAs, which may contain <6% of the total area of climate change refugia, leaving 129–237 species with no refugia inside the territorial limits of PAs of any kind. Our results reveal a dismal scenario for the level of refugia protection in some of the most biodiverse regions of the world. Nonetheless, because refugia tend to be in high-elevation, topographically complex, and remote areas, with lower anthropogenic pressure, formally protecting them may require a comparatively modest investment.     

Alignment between values of dryland pastoralists and conservation needs for small mammals

Policies for conservation outside protected areas, such as those designed to address the decline in Australian mammals, will not result in net improvements unless they address barriers to proenvironmental behavior. We used a mixed‐methods approach to explore potential value‐action gaps (disconnects between values and subsequent action) for small mammal conservation behaviors among pastoralists in dryland Australia. Using semistructured surveys and open‐ended interviews (n = 43), we explored values toward small mammals; uptake of a range of current and intended actions that may provide benefit to small mammals; and potential perceived barriers to their uptake. Pastoralists assigned great conservation value to small mammals; over 80% (n = 36) agreed to strongly agreed that small mammals on their property were important. These values did not translate into stated willingness to engage in voluntary cessation of wild‐dog control (r² = 0.187, p = 0.142, n = 43). However, assigning great conservation value to small mammals was strongly related to stated voluntary willingness to engage in the proenvironmental behavior most likely to result in benefits to small mammals: cat and fox control (r² = 0.558, p = 0.000, n = 43). There was no significant difference between stated voluntarily and incentivized willingness to engage in cat and fox control (p = 0.862, n = 43). The high levels of willingness to engage in voluntary cat and fox control highlight a potential entry point for addressing Australia's mammal declines because the engagement of pastoralists in conservation programs targeting cat and fox control is unlikely to be prevented by attitudinal constraints. Qualitative data suggest there is likely a subpopulation of pastoralists who value small mammals but do not wish to engage in formal conservation programs due to relational barriers with potential implementers. A long‐term commitment to engagement with pastoralists by implementers will thus be necessary for conservation success. On‐property cat and fox control programs that build and leverage trust, shared goals, collaboration, and shared learning experiences between stakeholders and that explicitly recognize the complexity of small mammal dynamics and the property‐level ecological knowledge of pastoralists are more likely to gain traction.     

Potential aboveground biomass in drought-prone forest used for rangeland pastoralism

The restoration of cleared dry forest represents an important opportunity to sequester atmospheric carbon. In order to account for this potential, the influences of climate, soils, and disturbance need to be deciphered. A data set spanning a region defined the aboveground biomass of mulga (Acacia aneura) dry forest and was analyzed in relation to climate and soil variables using a Bayesian model averaging procedure. Mean annual rainfall had an overwhelmingly strong positive effect, with mean maximum temperature (negative) and soil depth (positive) also important. The data were collected after a recent drought, and the amount of recent tree mortality was weakly positively related to a measure of three-year rainfall deficit, and maximum temperature (positive), soil depth (negative), and coarse sand (negative). A grazing index represented by the distance of sites to watering points was not incorporated by the models. Stark management contrasts, including grazing exclosures, can represent a substantial part of the variance in the model predicting biomass, but the impact of management was unpredictable and was insignificant in the regional data set. There was no evidence of density-dependent effects on tree mortality. Climate change scenarios represented by the coincidence of historical extreme rainfall deficit with extreme temperature suggest mortality of 30.1% of aboveground biomass, compared to 21.6% after the recent (2003-2007) drought. Projections for recovery of forest using a mapping base of cleared areas revealed that the greatest opportunities for restoration of aboveground biomass are in the higher-rainfall areas, where biomass accumulation will be greatest and droughts are less intense. These areas are probably the most productive for rangeland pastoralism, and the trade-off between pastoral production and carbon sequestration will be determined by market forces and carbon-trading rules.     

Classification of Climate‐Change‐Induced Stresses on Biological Diversity

Abstract: Conservation actions need to account for and be adapted to address changes that will occur under global climate change. The identification of stresses on biological diversity (as defined in the Convention on Biological Diversity) is key in the process of adaptive conservation management. We considered any impact of climate change on biological diversity a stress because such an effect represents a change (negative or positive) in key ecological attributes of an ecosystem or parts of it. We applied a systemic approach and a hierarchical framework in a comprehensive classification of stresses to biological diversity that are caused directly by global climate change. Through analyses of 20 conservation sites in 7 countries and a review of the literature, we identified climate‐change‐induced stresses. We grouped the identified stresses according to 3 levels of biological diversity: stresses that affect individuals and populations, stresses that affect biological communities, and stresses that affect ecosystem structure and function. For each stress category, we differentiated 3 hierarchical levels of stress: stress class (thematic grouping with the coarsest resolution, 8); general stresses (thematic groups of specific stresses, 21); and specific stresses (most detailed definition of stresses, 90). We also compiled an overview of effects of climate change on ecosystem services using the categories of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and 2 additional categories. Our classification may be used to identify key climate‐change‐related stresses to biological diversity and may assist in the development of appropriate conservation strategies. The classification is in list format, but it accounts for relations among climate‐change‐induced stresses.     

Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land‐use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate‐change mitigation

Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land‐use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate‐change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate‐change impacts; however, these policies will influence land‐use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land‐use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land‐use changes (1500–2005) based on the global gridded land‐use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land‐use changes under alternative climate‐change scenarios (2005–2100). Future land‐use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26‐58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land‐use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate‐change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species–area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land‐use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land‐use changes in hotspots or by lessening the impact of future land‐use activities on biodiversity within hotspots.     

Pastoralism,nature conservation and ecological sustainability in Western Australia's southern shrubland rangelands

Two major issues are discussed in this paper. The first is the commitment of Federal and State Governments to the maintenance of biodiversity and nature conservation through their endorsement of conservation strategies. Based on a rangeland biophysical resource inventory survey (Pringle et al., 1994) it is contended that existing nature conservation reserves are not representative of the biological diversity in the region. In 1990, less than 1% of the survey area was under nature reservation. Whilst 13 of 17 land types are present in reserves, most of the reserves consist of land types least suitable for pastoralism (but not necessarily lacking conservation value). The land types most subject to preferential grazing and most threatened from a nature conservation perspective are poorly (three types) or not (four types) represented, and certainly not replicated, in nature reserves of the survey area, which exceeds 100 000 km2. Of the 23 priority plant species for nature conservation occurring in the survey area, 21 are not known to occur in nature reserves. Nature conservation in the area needs to improve because of the unrepresentativeness of the existing nature reserves and the absence of numerous priority plant species for nature conservation from these areas. We should recognize that reservation is but one nature conservation strategy. Viewed as a land tenure issue, this paper presents a case for a more representative nature reserve system, and substantial changes in outlook towards off-reserve nature conservation. First, an integrated appraisal of findings from rangeland and biological surveys is required. Together they provide a strong foundation for nature conservation planning, from which a more representative nature reserve system can be planned. Given that off-reserve nature conservation values are still likely to be substantial, partly as a result of compromise with existing land uses, new approaches to land management, sensitive to these values, may be required.The second major issue concerns the success of maintaining regional biological diversity in the arid shrubland rangelands of Western Australia, which will be strongly influenced by the use of the semi-natural matrix of lands under pastoral management. In six suggested opportunities, this paper addresses how this use may be achieved. Central to the ideas is a regional approach in which all stakeholders can contribute to, and have ownership of, regional environmental management plans. This paper emphasizes the role that conservative pastoral management might be able to play and some approaches to encourage more widespread participation of pastoralists in nature conservation management.     

Matching the Multiple Scales of Conservation with the Multiple Scales of Climate Change

Abstract:  To anticipate the rapidly changing world resulting from global climate change, the projections of climate models must be incorporated into conservation. This requires that the scales of conservation be aligned with the scales of climate-change projections. We considered how conservation has incorporated spatial scale into protecting biodiversity, how the projections of climate-change models vary with scale, and how the two do or do not align. Conservation planners use information about past and current ecological conditions at multiple scales to identify conservation targets and threats and guide conservation actions. Projections of climate change are also made at multiple scales, from global and regional circulation models to projections downscaled to local scales. These downscaled projections carry with them the uncertainties associated with the broad-scale models from which they are derived; thus, their high resolution may be more apparent than real. Conservation at regional or global scales is about establishing priorities and influencing policy. At these scales, the coarseness and uncertainties of global and regional climate models may be less important than what they reveal about possible futures. At the ecoregional scale, the uncertainties associated with downscaling climate models become more critical because the distributions of conservation targets on which plans are founded may shift under future climates. At a local scale, variations in topography and land cover influence local climate, often overriding the projections of broad-scale climate models and increasing uncertainty. Despite the uncertainties, ecologists and conservationists must work with climate-change modelers to focus on the most likely projections. The future will be different from the past and full of surprises; judicious use of model projections at appropriate scales may help us prepare.     

Climate heterogeneity modulates impact of warming on tropical insects

Evolutionary history and physiology mediate species responses to climate change. Tropical species that do not naturally experience high temperature variability have a narrow thermal tolerance compared to similar taxa at temperate latitudes and could therefore be most vulnerable to warming. However, the thermal adaptation of a species may also be influenced by spatial temperature variations over its geographical range. Spatial climate gradients, especially from topography, may also broaden thermal tolerance and therefore act to buffer warming impacts. Here we show that for low-seasonality environments, high spatial heterogeneity in temperature correlates significantly with greater warming tolerance in insects globally. Based on this relationship, we find that climate change projections of direct physiological impacts on insect fitness highlight the vulnerability of tropical lowland areas to future warming. Thus, in addition to seasonality, spatial heterogeneity may play a critical role in thermal adaptation and climate change impacts particularly in the tropics.     

Experimental warming, not grazing, decreases rangeland quality on the Tibetan Plateau.

We investigated experimental warming and simulated grazing (clipping) effects on rangeland quality, as indicated by vegetation production and nutritive quality, in winter-grazed meadows and summer-grazed shrublands on the Tibetan Plateau, a rangeland system experiencing climatic and pastoral land use changes. Warming decreased total aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) by 40 g x m(-2) x yr(-1) at the meadow habitats and decreased palatable ANPP (total ANPP minus non-palatable forb ANPP) by 10 g x m(-2) x yr(-1) at both habitats. The decreased production of the medicinal forb Gentiana straminea and the increased production of the non-palatable forb Stellera chamaejasme with warming also reduced rangeland quality. At the shrubland habitats, warming resulted in less digestible shrubs, whose foliage contains 25% digestible dry matter (DDM), replacing more digestible graminoids, whose foliage contains 60% DDM. This shift from graminoids to shrubs not only results in lower-quality forage, but could also have important consequences for future domestic herd composition. Although warming extended the growing season in non-clipped plots, the reduced rangeland quality due to decreased vegetative production and nutritive quality will likely overwhelm the improved rangeland quality associated with an extended growing season. Grazing maintained or improved rangeland quality by increasing total ANPP by 20-40 g x m(-2) x yr(-1) with no effect on palatable ANPP. Grazing effects on forage nutritive quality, as measured by foliar nitrogen and carbon content and by shifts in plant group ANPP, resulted in improved forage quality. Grazing extended the growing season at both habitats, and it advanced the growing season at the meadows. Synergistic interactions between warming and grazing were present, such that grazing mediated the warming-induced declines in vegetation production and nutritive quality. Moreover, combined treatment effects were nonadditive, suggesting that we cannot predict the combined effect of global changes and human activities from single-factor studies. Our findings suggest that the rangelands on the Tibetan Plateau, and the pastoralists who depend on them, may be vulnerable to future climate changes. Grazing can mitigate the negative warming effects on rangeland quality. For example, grazing management may be an important tool to keep warming-induced shrub expansion in check. Moreover, flexible and opportunistic grazing management will be required in a warmer future.     

The evolving sedentary lifestyle among nomadic pastoralists in the humid zone of Nigeria: implications for land-use policy

SUMMARY

The humid zone of Nigeria has traditionally been considered unsuitable for extensive cattle production because of the prevalence of tsetse fly. Over the years, nomadic pastoralists, mainly Fulani, from the northern part of the country paid seasonal visits to this zone in search of pasture and water for their cattle during the dry season when the threat of the tsetse menace is less. The recent increase in the number of settled pastoralists has been associated with changing trends in the ecology and economy of the zone.

Relying on recent survey data, this paper attempts a systematic analysis of the adaptive strategies of the Fulani in pursuit of a sedentary lifestyle in the humid frontier of southwest Nigeria. Some of the adaptive strategies identified include: establishment of grazing orbits within a 20 km radius of their settlements, adjustment of herd size and structure, adoption of a multiple livelihood system, production of arable crops and appropriation of traditional social structures and kinship networks for herd management.

Long-term insecure land-holding arrangements, incessant seasonal bush burning for regeneration of pasture by the Fulani and the gradual destruction of the native forest cover are some of the problems arising from the sedentarisation of livestock production in the area. It was observed that the present land-use arrangement, even though it appears to guarantee the pastoralists security of tenure in the short term, is not sustainable in the long run, given the increasing commercialization of land in the area and rapid population growth. It was, therefore, concluded that government should put in place a land redistribution arrangement that will ensure secure land ownership by the Fulani. Development initiatives in the area should also focus on reinforcing those traditional practices of the Fulani that would guarantee a sustainable land-use system in the area.     

A Global Conservation System for Climate-Change Adaptation

Abstract:  Climate change has created the need for a new strategic framework for conservation. This framework needs to include new protected areas that account for species range shifts and management that addresses large-scale change across international borders. Actions within the framework must be effective in international waters and across political frontiers and have the ability to accommodate large income and ability-to-pay discrepancies between countries. A global protected-area system responds to these needs. A fully implemented global system of protected areas will help in the transition to a new conservation paradigm robust to climate change and will ensure the integrity of the climate services provided by carbon sequestration from the world's natural habitats. The internationally coordinated response to climate change afforded by such a system could have significant cost savings relative to a system of climate adaptation that unfolds solely at a country level. Implementation of a global system is needed very soon because the effects of climate change on species and ecosystems are already well underway .     

三江源地区基于植被生长季的NDVI对气候因子响应的差异性研究

采用1999—2008年NDVI和三江源地区及周边31个气象站点的温度和降水旬数据,在确定每年5月中旬至9月底作为三江源地区植被生长季（14旬）的基础上,分析NDVI对气候因子变化响应的区域差异。结果显示：以巴颜喀拉山为界,三江源西部生长季内NDVI指数对温度、降水的线性相关性明显比中东部普遍,同时,不同海拔地段响应程度存在着明显的差异,且海拔5300m左右为线性响应的最高限,NDVI对气候因子的线性响应主要表现为对温度正相关和降水负相关。因此,对三江源生长季内植被生长而言,水条件明显好于温度条件,并且温度对植被覆盖的影响通过直接正相关和降水负相关表现出来,温度是三江源地区植被生长的主导因子。     

Incorporating Climate Science in Applications of the U.S. Endangered Species Act for Aquatic Species

Aquatic species are threatened by climate change but have received comparatively less attention than terrestrial species. We gleaned key strategies for scientists and managers seeking to address climate change in aquatic conservation planning from the literature and existing knowledge. We address 3 categories of conservation effort that rely on scientific analysis and have particular application under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA): assessment of overall risk to a species; long‐term recovery planning; and evaluation of effects of specific actions or perturbations. Fewer data are available for aquatic species to support these analyses, and climate effects on aquatic systems are poorly characterized. Thus, we recommend scientists conducting analyses supporting ESA decisions develop a conceptual model that links climate, habitat, ecosystem, and species response to changing conditions and use this model to organize analyses and future research. We recommend that current climate conditions are not appropriate for projections used in ESA analyses and that long‐term projections of climate‐change effects provide temporal context as a species‐wide assessment provides spatial context. In these projections, climate change should not be discounted solely because the magnitude of projected change at a particular time is uncertain when directionality of climate change is clear. Identifying likely future habitat at the species scale will indicate key refuges and potential range shifts. However, the risks and benefits associated with errors in modeling future habitat are not equivalent. The ESA offers mechanisms for increasing the overall resilience and resistance of species to climate changes, including establishing recovery goals requiring increased genetic and phenotypic diversity, specifying critical habitat in areas not currently occupied but likely to become important, and using adaptive management. Incorporación de las Ciencias Climáticas en las Aplicaciones del Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro para Especies Acuáticas     

Species' traits predict phenological responses to climate change in butterflies

How do species' traits help identify which species will respond most strongly to future climate change? We examine the relationship between species' traits and phenology in a well-established model system for climate change, the U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS). Most resident U.K. butterfly species have significantly advanced their dates of first appearance during the past 30 years. We show that species with narrower larval diet breadth and more advanced overwintering stages have experienced relatively greater advances in their date of first appearance. In addition, species with smaller range sizes have experienced greater phenological advancement. Our results demonstrate that species' traits can be important predictors of responses to climate change, and they suggest that further investigation of the mechanisms by which these traits influence phenology may aid in understanding species' responses to current and future climate change.     

Achievements,challenges and global implications of China’s carbon neutral pledge

China has been committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. China’s pledge of carbon neutrality will play an essential role in galvanising global climate action, which has been largely deferred by the Covid-19 pandemic. China’s carbon neutrality could reduce global warming by approximately 0.2–0.3 °C and save around 1.8 million people from premature death due to air pollution. Along with domestic benefits, China’s pledge of carbon neutrality is a “game-changer” for global climate action and can inspire other large carbon emitters to contribute actively to mitigate carbon emissions, particularly countries along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) routes. In order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, it is necessary to decarbonise all sectors in China, including energy, industry, transportation, construction, and agriculture. However, this transition will be very challenging, because major technological breakthroughs and large-scale investments are required. Strong policies and implementation plans are essential, including sustainable demand, decarbonizing electricity, electrification, fuel switching, and negative emissions. In particular, if China can peak carbon emissions earlier, it can lower the costs of the carbon neutral transition and make it easier to do so over a longer time horizon. China’s pledge of carbon neutrality by 2060 and recent pledges at the 26^th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) are significant contributions and critical steps for global climate action. However, countries worldwide need to achieve carbon neutrality to keep the global temperature from growing beyond the level that will cause catastrophic damages globally.     

A synthesis of current knowledge on forests and carbon storage in the United States

Using forests to mitigate climate change has gained much interest in science and policy discussions. We examine the evidence for carbon benefits, environmental and monetary costs, risks and trade-offs for a variety of activities in three general strategies: (1) land use change to increase forest area (afforestation) and avoid deforestation; (2) carbon management in existing forests; and (3) the use of wood as biomass energy, in place of other building materials, or in wood products for carbon storage. We found that many strategies can increase forest sector carbon mitigation above the current 162-256 Tg C/yr, and that many strategies have co-benefits such as biodiversity, water, and economic opportunities. Each strategy also has trade-offs, risks, and uncertainties including possible leakage, permanence, disturbances, and climate change effects. Because approximately 60% of the carbon lost through deforestation and harvesting from 1700 to 1935 has not yet been recovered and because some strategies store carbon in forest products or use biomass energy, the biological potential for forest sector carbon mitigation is large. Several studies suggest that using these strategies could offset as much as 10-20% of current U.S. fossil fuel emissions. To obtain such large offsets in the United States would require a combination of afforesting up to one-third of cropland or pastureland, using the equivalent of about one-half of the gross annual forest growth for biomass energy, or implementing more intensive management to increase forest growth on one-third of forestland. Such large offsets would require substantial trade-offs, such as lower agricultural production and non-carbon ecosystem services from forests. The effectiveness of activities could be diluted by negative leakage effects and increasing disturbance regimes. Because forest carbon loss contributes to increasing climate risk and because climate change may impede regeneration following disturbance, avoiding deforestation and promoting regeneration after disturbance should receive high priority as policy considerations. Policies to encourage programs or projects that influence forest carbon sequestration and offset fossil fuel emissions should also consider major items such as leakage, the cyclical nature of forest growth and regrowth, and the extensive demand for and movement of forest products globally, and other greenhouse gas effects, such as methane and nitrous oxide emissions, and recognize other environmental benefits of forests, such as biodiversity, nutrient management, and watershed protection. Activities that contribute to helping forests adapt to the effects of climate change, and which also complement forest carbon storage strategies, would be prudent.