Theoretical foundations of learning processes for sustainable development

Social-ecological systems are co-evolving systems. Of particular relevance are here: (1) co-evolution of the environment and governance, (2) co-evolution of technology and governance, and (3) co-evolution of human behaviour and culture. The co-evolutionary perspective has helped to understand the processes which led to the present unsustainable situation. This paper highlights different types of learning processes which occur in co-evolving systems and explores learning processes on the macro-, meso- and micro-levels for moving onto more sustainable paths. While the literature in environmental management, ecological economics or sustainability science often refers to the need for learning processes, the conceptualisation of learning and the link to learning theories is weak. This paper draws on learning theories from psychology, social psychology, education, evolutionary economics and political science and offers a first step toward theoretical foundations of learning processes for sustainable development. An improved understanding of these learning processes will provide important clues for policy recommendations on multiple scales.     

Analysis of behavioral changes of zebrafish (Danio rerio) in response to formaldehyde using Self-organizing map and a hidden Markov model

Two computational methods were applied to classification of movement patterns of zebrafish (Danio rerio) to elucidate Markov processes in behavioral changes before and after treatment of formaldehyde (0.1 mg/L) in semi-natural conditions. The complex data of the movement tracks were initially classified by the Self-organizing map (SOM) to present different behavioral states of test individuals. Transition probabilities between behavioral states were further evaluated to fit Markov processes by using the hidden Markov model (HMM). Emission transition probability was also obtained from the observed variables (i.e., speed) for training with the HMM. Experimental transition and emission probability matrices were successfully estimated with the HMM for recognizing sequences of behavioral states with accuracy rates in acceptable ranges at central and boundary zones before (77.3-81.2%) and after (70.1-76.5%) treatment. A heuristic algorithm and a Markov model were efficiently combined to analyze movement patterns and could be a means of in situ behavioral monitoring tool.     

Governance baselines as a basis for adaptive marine spatial planning

A marine spatial planning (MSP) initiative—if to be successful—has to be rooted in a thorough understanding of the tradition and structures of the governance system in the area targeted for the initiative. After decades of a mainly sectoral approach towards maritime affairs, governments began to recognised the need for a governance framework that applies a more integrated approach to maritime policy. The new Integrated Maritime Policy of the European Union is only one example for such a changed way of policy and decision making. The assembly of a governance baseline can help to identify the crucial hindering and success factors for the implementation of MSP. A governance baseline has two parts. Part One focuses upon the past and current performance of the governance system as it has responded—or failed to respond—to changes in the condition of ecosystems in a specific locale. Part Two of a baseline outlines a strategic approach to the design of a new program and records the goals, objectives and strategies of MSP implementation. Focus on both governance processes and their outcomes is essential and forms the core justification for documenting governance responses to ecosystem change.     

A tree and climate assessment tool for modelling ecosystem response to climate change

Understanding how vulnerable forest ecosystems are to climate change is a key requirement if sustainable forest management is to be achieved. Modelling the response of species in their regeneration niche to phenological and biophysical processes that are directly influenced by climate is one method for achieving this understanding. A model was developed to investigate species resilience and vulnerability to climate change within its fundamental-regeneration niche. The utility of the developed model, tree and climate assessment (TACA), was tested within the interior Douglas-fir ecosystem in south-central British Columbia. TACA modelled the current potential tree species composition of the ecosystem with high accuracy and modelled significant responses amongst tree species to climate change. The response of individual species suggests that the studied ecosystem could transition to a new ecosystem over the next 100 years. TACA showed that it can be an effective tool for identifying species resilience and vulnerability to changes in climate within the most sensitive stage of development, the regeneration phase. The TACA model was able to identify the degree of change in phenological and biophysical variables that control tree establishment, growth and persistence. The response to changes in one or more of these variables resulted in changes in the climatic suitability of the ecosystem for species and enabled a measure of vulnerability to be quantified. TACA could be useful to forest managers as a decision support tool for adaptation actions and by researchers interested in modelling stand dynamics under climate change.     

Socio-environmental co-evolution: some ideas for an analytical approach

A number of scholars, mainly in ecological economics, have been attracted to the concept of co-evolution for the analysis of socio-environmental change. Yet none has adopted and developed an applied analytical approach using an explicitly evolutionary framework. This paper discusses how other scholars in economics, technological studies, organization and political science have been using evolutionary explanations and draws some lessons for ecological economics. Evolutionary is a mode of explanation based on the selective retention of renewable variation. It accounts for phenomena of structural fit and change in a variety of domains. A co-evolutionary explanation, by extension, entails two or more evolving systems whose interaction affects their evolution. Socio-environmental co-evolution involves human systems (material practices and non-material ideas and values) and non-human systems (living and physical). The challenge then is how to develop case-specific, empirical applications that define and elaborate the variants that co-evolve and specify the processes of mutual selection. Applications could benefit from existing classifications and causal propositions in the natural and social sciences. Co-evolution is part of a larger analytical toolkit for looking at complex socio-environmental problems. Although distinct, there are strong synergies, complementarities and potential for combined uses between co-evolutionary, co-dynamic and complexity-based explanations.     

Generation of Priority Research Questions to Inform Conservation Policy and Management at a National Level

Abstract: Integrating knowledge from across the natural and social sciences is necessary to effectively address societal tradeoffs between human use of biological diversity and its preservation. Collaborative processes can change the ways decision makers think about scientific evidence, enhance levels of mutual trust and credibility, and advance the conservation policy discourse. Canada has responsibility for a large fraction of some major ecosystems, such as boreal forests, Arctic tundra, wetlands, and temperate and Arctic oceans. Stressors to biological diversity within these ecosystems arise from activities of the country's resource‐based economy, as well as external drivers of environmental change. Effective management is complicated by incongruence between ecological and political boundaries and conflicting perspectives on social and economic goals. Many knowledge gaps about stressors and their management might be reduced through targeted, timely research. We identify 40 questions that, if addressed or answered, would advance research that has a high probability of supporting development of effective policies and management strategies for species, ecosystems, and ecological processes in Canada. A total of 396 candidate questions drawn from natural and social science disciplines were contributed by individuals with diverse organizational affiliations. These were collaboratively winnowed to 40 by our team of collaborators. The questions emphasize understanding ecosystems, the effects and mitigation of climate change, coordinating governance and management efforts across multiple jurisdictions, and examining relations between conservation policy and the social and economic well‐being of Aboriginal peoples. The questions we identified provide potential links between evidence from the conservation sciences and formulation of policies for conservation and resource management. Our collaborative process of communication and engagement between scientists and decision makers for generating and prioritizing research questions at a national level could be a model for similar efforts beyond Canada.     

Ecological mechanisms linking protected areas to surrounding lands.

Land use is expanding and intensifying in the unprotected lands surrounding many of the world's protected areas. The influence of this land use change on ecological processes is poorly understood. The goal of this paper is to draw on ecological theory to provide a synthetic framework for understanding how land use change around protected areas may alter ecological processes and biodiversity within protected areas and to provide a basis for identifying scientifically based management alternatives. We first present a conceptual model of protected areas embedded within larger ecosystems that often include surrounding human land use. Drawing on case studies in this Invited Feature, we then explore a comprehensive set of ecological mechanisms by which land use on surrounding lands may influence ecological processes and biodiversity within reserves. These mechanisms involve changes in ecosystem size, with implications for minimum dynamic area, species-area effect, and trophic structure; altered flows of materials and disturbances into and out of reserves; effects on crucial habitats for seasonal and migration movements and population source/sink dynamics; and exposure to humans through hunting, poaching, exotics species, and disease. These ecological mechanisms provide a basis for assessing the vulnerability of protected areas to land use. They also suggest criteria for designing regional management to sustain protected areas in the context of surrounding human land use. These design criteria include maximizing the area of functional habitats, identifying and maintaining ecological process zones, maintaining key migration and source habitats, and managing human proximity and edge effects.     

Geography of conservation spending,biodiversity, and culture

We used linear and multivariate models to examine the associations between geography, biodiversity, per capita economic output, national spending on conservation, governance, and cultural traits in 55 countries. Cultural traits and social metrics of modernization correlated positively with national spending on conservation. The global distribution of this spending culture was poorly aligned with the distribution of biodiversity. Specifically, biodiversity was greater in the tropics where cultures tended to spend relatively less on conservation and tended to have higher collectivism, formalized and hierarchical leadership, and weaker governance. Consequently, nations lacking social traits frequently associated with modernization, environmentalism, and conservation spending have the largest component of Earth's biodiversity. This has significant implications for setting policies and priorities for resource management given that biological diversity is rapidly disappearing and cultural traits change slowly. Therefore, we suggest natural resource management adapt to and use characteristics of existing social organization rather than wait for or promote social values associated with conservation spending. Supporting biocultural traditions, engaging leaders to increase conservation commitments, cross‐national efforts that complement attributes of cultures, and avoiding interference with nature may work best to conserve nature in collective and hierarchical societies. Spending in modernized nations may be a symbolic response to a symptom of economic development and environmental degradation, and here conservation actions need to ensure that biodiversity is not being lost.     

Simulating dynamics of managed monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest in south China

The forest succession model FORDYN is developed based on TREEDEV model. TREEDEV is a process-based tree growth model, that calculates tree growth based on carbon and nitrogen balance, and is calculated using on the photo-production of leaves, respiration, nitrogen content of all organisms and that in soil, and other losses due to respiration, litter and renewal of stems, branches, leaves and roots. In the FORDYN model succession is divided into three phases called early, middle and late succession, and the transition between these three succession phases is distinguished by a difference in leaf area index. As a verification of the model we used the characteristics and available data of a monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest in Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve (DHS-BR). The model was validated with natural forest data. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed in which 30 independent variables were varied and analyzed in connection with their influence on 16 dependent variables describing forest conditions. The simulation results describe the changes in total biomass, carbon and nitrogen change in plant–litter–soil system of an undisturbed monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest during succession. We compared these findings with simulation in which different logging management strategies were used. The results show that having a longer logging cycle, delaying the first logging time and a smaller logging fraction the scenario can contribute to a sustainable forest development, while still having a positive economic yield.     

Human–wildlife coexistence in a changing world

Human–wildlife conflict (HWC) is a key topic in conservation and agricultural research. Decision makers need evidence-based information to design sustainable management plans and policy instruments. However, providing objective decision support can be challenging because realities and perceptions of human–wildlife interactions vary widely between and within rural, urban, and peri-urban areas. Land users who incur costs through wildlife argue that wildlife-related losses should be compensated and that prevention should be subsidized. Supporters of human–wildlife coexistence policies, such as urban-dwelling people, may not face threats to their livelihoods from wildlife. Such spatial heterogeneity in the cost and benefits of living with wildlife is germane in most contemporary societies. This Special Section features contributions on wildlife-induced damages that range from human perspectives (land use, psychology, governance, local attitudes and perceptions, costs and benefits, and HWC and coexistence theory) to ecological perspectives (animal behavior). Building on current literature and articles in this section, we developed a conceptual model to help frame HWC and coexistence dimensions. The framework can be used to determine damage prevention implementation levels and approaches to HWC resolution. Our synthesis revealed that inter- and transdisciplinary approaches and multilevel governance approaches can help stakeholders and institutions implement sustainable management strategies that promote human–wildlife coexistence.     

Evolutionary governance choice for corporate social responsibility: a forestry campaign case in South Korea

Firms select different governance types (e.g. internalisation, outsourcing or collaboration) for corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities. This paper examined how the choice of CSR governance type is influenced by social factors and organisational experiences and how changes in these factors affect the governance choice. These questions are especially meaningful in the context of developing countries with weak institutional environments and recent social change. With the unique phenomenon that is not readily explainable in terms of the extant theoretical groundwork on CSR governance choice, a case study of a South Korean forestry campaign by Yuhan-Kimberly was analysed. It was found that social circumstances triggered Yuhan-Kimberly's initiation of forestry projects, but the absence of social infrastructure limited the choice of governance type early on. Lack of experience also constrained the governance choice. Over time, environmental change and the accumulation of organisational knowledge caused the choice of governance to evolve. This study contributes to the CSR governance choice literature by exploring social and organisational determinants other than economic efficiency and by applying a dynamic perspective.     

The effects of disturbance based management on the dynamics of Mediterranean vegetation: A hierarchical and spatially explicit modeling approach

The eastern Mediterranean region has been subjected to intensive human disturbance in the past 10,000 years, mainly in the forms of agro-pastoral activities such as grazing, shrub clearing, and prescribed burning. This disturbance history resulted in the formation of highly heterogeneous landscapes, characterized by high biodiversity. Recent changes in human activities have resulted in a decrease of landscape heterogeneity, leading to decreasing biodiversity and increasing fire risk. To conserve heterogeneity, land managers apply disturbance based management practices, using the same activities that created and maintained landscape heterogeneity in the past. However, the long-term and large-scale outcomes of these disturbances are often unknown, due to the complex response of Mediterranean vegetation to disturbance. Here we report on a spatially explicit, hybrid, and spatially hierarchical ecological model developed by us. The model attempts to predict the outcome of various disturbance based management activities on the long-term spatio-temporal dynamics of five common Mediterranean vegetation types. The model uses a spatially explicit state and transition formulation, with continuous transition functions. Model simulations were conducted on a Mediterranean landscape in Northern Israel, incorporating various disturbance practices that are common in the region. Simulation results highlight the potential of disturbance based management as a tool for conserving landscape heterogeneity, as well as the complex interactions between disturbances and the spatial structure of the landscape in Mediterranean regions.     

A bio-inspired computing model as a new tool for modeling ecosystems: The avian scavengers as a case study

The models used for ecosystems modeling are generally based on differential equations. However, in recent years new computational models based on biological processes, or bioinspired models, have arisen, among which are P systems. These are inspired by the functions of cells and present important advantages with respect to traditional models, such as a high computational efficiency, modularity and their ability to work in parallel. They are simple, individual-based models that use biological parameters that can be obtained experimentally. In this work, we present the framework for a model based on P systems applied to the study of an ecosystem in which three avian scavengers (predators) interact with 10 wild and domestic ungulates (preys). The computation time for 100 repetitions, corresponding to 14 simulation years each, with an initial population composed of 385,422 individuals, was 30 min. Our results suggest that the model presented, based on P systems, correctly simulates the population dynamics in the period of time analyzed. We discuss the usefulness of this tool in simulating complex ecosystems dynamics to aid managers, conservationists and policy-makers in making appropriate decisions for the improvement of management and conservation programs.     

Assessing historical saltmarsh change; an investigation into the reliability of historical saltmarsh mapping using contemporaneous aerial photography and cartographic data

Habitat protection, creation and management are at the forefront of nature conservation throughout the world. Many terrestrial and marine ecosystems are under pressure from a diverse range of issues including impacts associated with climate change, multiple resource use and increased development. Saltmarsh within the United Kingdom, is one such valuable habitat which has suffered significant losses over the last eighty or so years. Any environmental management practice or decision applied to these areas, should ideally be based on evidence of processes and change. One potential way of measuring saltmarsh change is by using historical maps and aerial photographs to look for patterns of growth or reduction. This research examines the process of saltmarsh mapping and compares historical aerial photographs and maps to assess their suitability for habitat change assessment. This research suggests that whilst historical aerial photography can be accessed and utilised effectively, the data presented on maps should be treated with a great deal of caution. The saltmarsh represented on the maps used in this research was noticeably different from that mapped using aerial photographs from a similar time period. Whilst this does not dismiss the use of historic maps along this part of the coast, it does suggest they should be treated with some degree of caution and will vary in their reliability.     

Larval mesopelagic fish assemblages in the Kuroshio–Oyashio transition region of the western North Pacific

We examined larval mesopelagic fish assemblages, their distribution, and seasonal occurrence patterns in the Kuroshio–Oyashio transition region of the western North Pacific where complex hydrographic structures are observed due to the confluence of the Kuroshio Extension and Oyashio current. Larvae of the dominant families Myctophidae, Gonostomatidae, Bathylagidae, Sternoptychidae, and Phosichthyidae were represented by 31 species or types belonging to 24 genera. Based on species composition analysis using the Morishita–Horn similarity index, five assemblages were recognized: Oyashio, Spring Transition, Summer Transition, Kuroshio, and Slope Water assemblages. The distribution patterns of these assemblages corresponded closely with hydrographic structures such as position of the Oyashio and Kuroshio Extension fronts, warm core rings and streamers. Spring Transition (April) and Summer Transition (July–October) assemblages were the most important larval assemblages in the transition region. Larval abundances were low during late autumn and winter. The Spring Transition and Summer Transition assemblages were composed of subtropical, transitional, subarctic, and slope-water species, suggesting the importance of the transition region as nursery grounds of mesopelagic fishes of various origins from subarctic to subtropical waters. Larval fish transport by the Kuroshio, Oyashio, and Tsugaru Warm currents into the transition region is discussed.     

Why social values cannot be changed for the sake of conservation

The hope for creating widespread change in social values has endured among conservation professionals since early calls by Aldo Leopold for a “land ethic.” However, there has been little serious attention in conservation to the fields of investigation that address values, how they are formed, and how they change. We introduce a social–ecological systems conceptual approach in which values are seen not only as motivational goals people hold but also as ideas that are deeply embedded in society's material culture, collective behaviors, traditions, and institutions. Values define and bind groups, organizations, and societies; serve an adaptive role; and are typically stable across generations. When abrupt value changes occur, they are in response to substantial alterations in the social–ecological context. Such changes build on prior value structures and do not result in complete replacement. Given this understanding of values, we conclude that deliberate efforts to orchestrate value shifts for conservation are unlikely to be effective. Instead, there is an urgent need for research on values with a multilevel and dynamic view that can inform innovative conservation strategies for working within existing value structures. New directions facilitated by a systems approach will enhance understanding of the role values play in shaping conservation challenges and improve management of the human component of conservation.     

Using empirical models of species colonization under multiple threatening processes to identify complementary threat‐mitigation strategies

Approaches to prioritize conservation actions are gaining popularity. However, limited empirical evidence exists on which species might benefit most from threat mitigation and on what combination of threats, if mitigated simultaneously, would result in the best outcomes for biodiversity. We devised a way to prioritize threat mitigation at a regional scale with empirical evidence based on predicted changes to population dynamics—information that is lacking in most threat‐management prioritization frameworks that rely on expert elicitation. We used dynamic occupancy models to investigate the effects of multiple threats (tree cover, grazing, and presence of an hyperaggressive competitor, the Noisy Miner (Manorina melanocephala) on bird‐population dynamics in an endangered woodland community in southeastern Australia. The 3 threatening processes had different effects on different species. We used predicted patch‐colonization probabilities to estimate the benefit to each species of removing one or more threats. We then determined the complementary set of threat‐mitigation strategies that maximized colonization of all species while ensuring that redundant actions with little benefit were avoided. The single action that resulted in the highest colonization was increasing tree cover, which increased patch colonization by 5% and 11% on average across all species and for declining species, respectively. Combining Noisy Miner control with increasing tree cover increased species colonization by 10% and 19% on average for all species and for declining species respectively, and was a higher priority than changing grazing regimes. Guidance for prioritizing threat mitigation is critical in the face of cumulative threatening processes. By incorporating population dynamics in prioritization of threat management, our approach helps ensure funding is not wasted on ineffective management programs that target the wrong threats or species.     

Using perceptions as evidence to improve conservation and environmental management

The conservation community is increasingly focusing on the monitoring and evaluation of management, governance, ecological, and social considerations as part of a broader move toward adaptive management and evidence‐based conservation. Evidence is any information that can be used to come to a conclusion and support a judgment or, in this case, to make decisions that will improve conservation policies, actions, and outcomes. Perceptions are one type of information that is often dismissed as anecdotal by those arguing for evidence‐based conservation. In this paper, I clarify the contributions of research on perceptions of conservation to improving adaptive and evidence‐based conservation. Studies of the perceptions of local people can provide important insights into observations, understandings and interpretations of the social impacts, and ecological outcomes of conservation; the legitimacy of conservation governance; and the social acceptability of environmental management. Perceptions of these factors contribute to positive or negative local evaluations of conservation initiatives. It is positive perceptions, not just objective scientific evidence of effectiveness, that ultimately ensure the support of local constituents thus enabling the long‐term success of conservation. Research on perceptions can inform courses of action to improve conservation and governance at scales ranging from individual initiatives to national and international policies. Better incorporation of evidence from across the social and natural sciences and integration of a plurality of methods into monitoring and evaluation will provide a more complete picture on which to base conservation decisions and environmental management.     

Modeling Diapause Termination of Rhipicephalus Appendiculatus using Statistical Tools to Detect Sudden Behavioral Changes and Time Dependencies

This paper presents statistical methodology to analyze longitudinal binary responses for which a sudden change in the response occurs in time. Probability plots, transition matrices, and change-point models and more advanced techniques such as generalized auto-regression models and hidden Markov chains are presented and applied on a study on the activity of Rhipicephalus appendiculatus, the major vector of Theileria parva, a fatal disease in cattle. This study presents individual measurements on female R. appendiculatus, which are terminating their diapause (resting status) and become active. Comprehending activity patterns is very important to better understand the ecology of R. appendiculatus. The model indicates that activity and non-activity act in an absorbing way meaning that once a tick becomes active it shows a tendency to remain active. The change-point model estimates that the sudden change in activity happens on December 10. The reaction of ticks on acceleration and changes in rainfall and temperature indicates that ticks can sense climatic changes. The study revealed the underlying not visually observable states during diapause development of the adult tick of R. appendiculatus. These states could be related to phases during the dynamic event of diapause development and post-diapause activity in R. appendiculatus.     

An overview of flood mitigation strategy and research support in South Asia: implications for sustainable flood risk management

South Asia faces increasing flooding risks due to climatic and socio-economic changes. Various measures have been adopted by the governments of the countries in this region. However, these measures are not adequate to protect the vulnerable communities from ever-increasing flood losses. This study assesses the policy and planning processes and flood-related scientific research in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Based on a systematic review, a comparison of the existing flood management systems of the three countries is undertaken, and a framework for sustainable flood management in the region is suggested. Insights from the literature show that Bangladesh has been able to develop an effective governance structure to address flood hazards, while Pakistan’s approach to flood management planning is found to be largely inadequate. This inadequacy is mainly attributed to missing links in policy formulation and planning processes, along with a lack of institutional coordination. The results of the literature analysis reveal poor support from scientific research focusing on flooding issues in the case of Pakistan, while Bangladesh and India seem to have benefited from research support in formulating their flood management strategies. Based on these findings, an alternative framework is suggested, emphasizing the need to enhance institutional linkages, community participation and evidence-based research.