Exploring long-term land cover changes in an urban region of southern Europe

This paper addresses two important issues for large Mediterranean city regions: the differential impact of compact urban ‘growth’ and low-density ‘sprawl’ on land cover changes (LCCs), and their final effect on changing land cover relationships (LCRs). The urban expansion of Rome (Italy) during the last 50 years and the related LCCs were investigated as a paradigmatic example of compact versus dispersed urban development. LCCs were assessed over 5 years (1960, 1974, 1990, 2000, 2006) by analysing diachronically the distribution of 12 land cover categories derived from digital land cover maps covering the entire Nuts-3 prefecture of Rome (5353 km²). LCRs were studied using multi-way data analysis. LCCs were found to have relative differences during ‘growth’ (1960–1990) and ‘sprawl’ (1990–2006) phases. Conversion to urban land uses concentrated in the 1960s and 1970s at the urban fringe, while expanding progressively far from the city in the 1990s and 2000s. During the ‘growth’ phase, the land cover classes with the highest probability of being converted to urban uses were arable lands, annual crops, vineyards and pastures. During the ‘sprawl’ phase, olive groves, orchards and forest surfaces also decreased due to the development of low-density built-up areas and infrastructure. Planning suggestions aimed at mitigating the alteration of the rural landscape through sprawl conditions are discussed.     

Assessment of ecological risks induced by land use and land cover changes in Xiamen City,China

The landscape ecological risk (LER) in Xiamen City, China, from 1990 to 2030 was studied using an urban land use and land cover change (LUCC) model and LER analysis. The LUCC model was used to predict the LUCC of Xiamen from 2020 to 2030. We analyzed the characteristics of LUCC and landscape pattern changes and, finally, evaluated the effect of rapid LUCC on LER. Of the six landscape types investigated, built-up land and farmland demonstrated the most significant changes. The area of built-up land increased by 1.5 times in 2010 and is predicted to increase by 2.7 times in 2030 than that in 1990. The area of farmland increased from 34.5% in 1990 to 24.5% in 2010 and is predicted to decrease to 15.1% in 2030. The number of patches (NP) of built-up land decreased with increasing area, which promoted the dominance of built-up land over other landscape types. Five landscape types, those other than built-up land, increased in NP, landscape fragmentation, segmentation, and disturbance but decreased in dominance. The LER of Xiamen in 2010 was slightly lower than that in 1990. However, with the acceleration of urbanization, the LER in 2020 and 2030 will increase by 7.6% and 12.5% than that in 2010. The LER will significantly increase in areas such as the Huandong sea area, the second urban core of Xiamen, and northern Xiang'an. For the areas, some measures (e.g. optimum urban spatial growth patterns and control of coastal reclamation) must inevitably increase to reduce the LER posed by rapid urbanization.     

Effect of land use and land cover change on soil erosion and the spatio-temporal variation in Liupan Mountain Region, southern Ningxia, China

The Liupan Mountains are located in the southern Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China, that forms an important divide between landforms and biogeographic regions. The populated part of the Liupan Mountain Region has suffered tremendous ecological damage over time due to population pressure, excessive demand and inappropriate use of agricultural land resources. To present the relationship between land use/cover change and spatio-temporal variation of soil erosion, data sets of land use between the late 1980s and 2000 were obtained from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery, and spatial models were used to characterize landscape and soil erosion conditions. Also, soil erosion in response to land use and land cover change were quantified and analyzed using data from geographical information systems and remote sensing. Soil erosion by water was the dominant mode of soil loss, while soil erosion by wind was only present on a relatively small area. The degree of soil erosion was classified into five severity classes: slight, light, moderate, severe, and very severe. Soil erosion in the Liupan Mountain Region increased between the late 1980s and 2000, both in terms of acreage and severity. Moderate, severe, and very severe eroded areas accounted for 54.86% of the total land area. The lightly eroded area decreased, while the moderately eroded area increased by 368817 ha (22%) followed by severe erosion with 146552 ha (8.8%), and very severe erosion by 97067.6 ha (5.8%). Soil loss on sloping cropland increased with slope gradients. About 90% of the cropland was located on slopes less than 15°. Most of the increase in soil erosion on cropland was due to conversion of steep slopes to cropland and degradation of grassland and increased activities. Soil erosion was severe on grassland with a moderate or low grass cover and on dry land. Human activities, cultivation on steep slopes, and overgrazing of pastures were the main reasons for the increase in erosion severity.     

Population growth,urban sprawl and landscape integrity of Beijing City

The detailed landscape pattern of the urban area within the 6th ring road in Beijing City was identified using airborne remote sensing data acquired between 1997 and 2002. The landscape indices at landscape level were computed using Fragstats 3.3, and changes in land use/cover types in Beijing from 1997 to 2002 were examined. The results show that urban built area (UBA) and farmland changed greatly within the 6th ring road, and that farmland had been replaced by UBA. The number of patches increased by 106.6%, mean patch area decreased by 51.6%, the splitting index increased by 94.3%, and the landscape diversity index increased by 17.8%. The landscape pattern had become more fragmented and diversified in these 5 years. The main driving forces for landscape change were the increasing demand for land for construction due to the growing population, unreasonable urban growth, and improvements in housing standards. The landscape pattern change in Beijing led by rapid urbanisation has negatively influenced urban ecosystem health and has caused several environmental problems. We provide suggestions for improving urban planning and sustainable development in Beijing City.     

Integrating pattern-based modelling and political ecology in land-use change research: the case of Mexican dry tropics

ABSTRACT

Agricultural and extractive frontiers experiment rapid landscape transformation. Land-Use Sciences and Political Ecology are complementary approaches for analysing how landscape transformations are related to biophysical conditions, and socioeconomic, cultural and political processes developed at global, national and local scales. This study examines such relationships in a long-standing agrarian and resource frontier in southern Mexico for the 1986–2015 period. We combine insights from: (1) a quantitative land use/land cover change pattern-based model, involving a weights of evidence and cellular automata simulations, and (2) a qualitative content analysis of literature and of local actors’ perspectives. Two grand frontier processes have developed in this region: NAFTA-related agrarian transition toward intensification and the establishment of wind farms. Both were triggered by global forces and new forms of land and resources use, but mediated by national-to-local ecological, socioeconomic and political processes, producing particular landscape transformations.     

Assessing effects of land use on landscape connectivity: loss and fragmentation of western U.S. forests

Effects of land-use change on the conservation of biodiversity have become a concern to conservation scientists and land managers, who have identified loss and fragmentation of natural areas as a high-priority issue. Despite urgent calls to inform national, regional, and state planning efforts, there remains a critical need to develop practical approaches to identify where important lands are for landscape connectivity (i.e., linkages), where land use constrains connectivity, and which linkages are most important to maintain network-wide connectivity extents. Our overall goal in this paper was to develop an approach that provides comprehensive, quantitative estimates of the effects of land-use change on landscape connectivity and illustrate its use on a broad, regional expanse of the western United States. We quantified loss of habitat and landscape connectivity for western forested systems due to land uses associated with residential development, roads, and highway traffic. We examined how these land-use changes likely increase the resistance to movement of forest species in non-forested land cover types and, therefore, reduce the connectivity among forested habitat patches. To do so, we applied a graph-theoretic approach that incorporates ecological aspects within a geographic representation of a network. We found that roughly one-quarter of the forested lands in the western United States were integral to a network of forested patches, though the lands outside of patches remain critical for habitat and overall connectivity. Using remotely sensed land cover data (ca. 2000), we found 1.7 million km2 of forested lands. We estimate that land uses associated with residential development, roads, and highway traffic have caused roughly a 4.5% loss in area (20 000 km2) of these forested patches, and continued expansion of residential land will likely reduce forested patches by another 1.2% by 2030. We also identify linkages among forest patches that are critical for landscape connectivity. Our approach can be readily modified to examine connectivity for other habitats/ecological systems and for other geographic areas, as well as to address more specific requirements for particular conservation planning applications.     

Human influence on California fire regimes.

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation.     

嘉峪关市中心城区扩张过程及其景观特征变化

以中国干旱区嘉峪关市1986、1996、2006和2010年Landsat TM/ETM＋影像为数据源,采用道路扩展和城市建设用地扩张强度反映城区建设扩张过程,同时分析了城市景观类型的斑块特征和结构特征,研究结果表明：1）嘉峪关市中心城区主干道路扩展显著,城市面积增加明显。1986—2010年间嘉峪关市道路长度增加了100.20 km,城市面积从1986年的2 220.03hm^2增加到2010年的5 048.22hm^2,年均扩张强度指数达5.10%。2）城市景观格局变化显著,建设用地、城市绿地和水体分别增加了2 003.74hm^2、655.30hm^2和169.15hm^2,未利用地则减少2 828.19hm^2。建设用地和城市绿地破碎度增加,未利用地破碎度减少。3）城市景观斑块类型更趋均衡化,整体景观和异质性多样性增加。4）城市扩张是嘉峪关城市绿地和水体明显增加的重要原因,人类活动对城市生态环境的影响逐渐增强。     

Urban sprawl into Natura 2000 network over Europe

Urban growth is a major threat to biodiversity conservation at the global scale. Its impacts are expected to be especially detrimental when it sprawls into the landscape and reaches sites of high conservation value due to the species and ecosystems they host, such as protected areas. I analyzed the degree of urbanization (i.e., urban cover and growth rate) from 2006 to 2015 in protected sites in the Natura 2000 network, which, according to the Habitats and Birds Directives, harbor species and habitats of high conservation concern in Europe. I used data on the degree of land imperviousness from COPERNICUS to calculate and compare urban covers and growth rates inside and outside Natura 2000. I also analyzed the relationships of urban cover and growth rates with a set of characteristics of Natura sites. Urban cover inside Natura 2000 was 10 times lower than outside (0.4% vs. 4%) throughout the European Union. However, the rates of urban growth were slightly higher inside than outside Natura 2000 (4.8% vs. 3.9%), which indicates an incipient urban sprawl inside the network. In general, Natura sites affected most by urbanization were those surrounded by densely populated areas (i.e., urban clusters) that had a low number of species or habitats of conservation concern, albeit some member states had high urban cover or growth rate or both in protected sites with a large number of species or habitats of high conservation value. Small Natura sites had more urban cover than large sites, but urban growth rates were highest in large Natura sites. Natura 2000 is protected against urbanization to some extent, but there is room for improvement. Member states must enact stricter legal protection and control law enforcement to halt urban sprawl into protected areas under the greatest pressure from urban sprawl (i.e., close to urban clusters). Such actions are particularly needed in Natura sites with high urban cover and growth rates and areas where urbanization is affecting small Natura sites of high conservation value, which are especially vulnerable and concentrated in the Mediterranean region.     

Urban forest landscape patterns in Ma'anshan City,China

The landscape pattern of Ma'anshan City was analyzed based on theories and methodologies of landscape ecology, remote sensing, global positioning, and a geographic information system (GIS). The study area encompassed the entire built-up area of 63.88 km²; a north–south transect 3-km wide and 13-km long was established along the long axis of the city. Five major landscape elements were assessed: urban land, urban forest, agriculture, water, and grass. Urban land was the dominant land cover type, and occupied 67% of total land area; while patches of urban forest occupied 16%, with a landscape element dominance of 0.42. Urban forest was classified according to land-use category and location into six types: scenic forest, yard forest, recreational forest, roadside forest, shelter forest, and nurseries. There were 2464 urban forest patches, the largest being 185.1 ha, with an average of 0.43 ha. The low nearest neighbor index and high patch density indicated that urban forest patches tend to be aggregated and have a high degree of fragmentation. This study also demonstrated that the spatial pattern of urbanization could be quantified using a combination of landscape metrics and gradient analysis. Urban forest has distinct spatial characters that are dependent on specific landscape metrics along the urbanization gradient.     

平原城市河流面源污染研究范围及方法的选择与效果比较

由于平原城市地貌起伏不大,较难划分城市河流的流域范围,使得与河道面源污染相关的研究范围的边界确定存在一定的困难。针对这一问题,本文对比了基于缓冲区和排水区的两种研究范围及方法。根据遥感影像,利用GIS提取研究区内土地利用信息并与河流水质进行回归分析,对比两种范围及方法所得出的结果,试图为城市河道污染物的研究及管理提供方法支持和理论依据。本文选取了天津滨海地区11条河流进行研究,结果表明：（1）选取城市排水区作为土地利用数据的方法能够与河流中污染物的发生,迁移的真实情况相符合,能够综合考虑不同的景观格局分布对于水质的影响,结合平原城市的特殊性反映土地利用与河流污染物之间的相关关系,在机理严谨性上优于使用缓冲区范围,在整体性上更为完整;（2）基于缓冲区的研究方法能够在一定程度上解释在地表径流作用下,河流近岸不同距离的土地利用类型对河流污染物的影响,如耕地对污染物的影响,河流近岸100 m缓冲区的联合显著性为0.848,300 m缓冲区的仅为0.165;（3）土地利用类型对河流中污染物类型的贡献和消减趋势基本一致,城市居民点与工矿用地是河流当中重金属污染物如铅、汞的主要输入源;耕地对重金属等污染物有一定的截留消减作用,但在面积较大时增加了河流的有机污染物如氨氮;林地、园地、草地和水体对于城市河流污染物有一定的净化作用。两种方法结合起来可以得出更为详尽、客观的研究结果。     

Evaluation for sustainable land use in coastal areas: A landscape ecological prospect

Evaluation of sustainability is the core of research on sustainable land use. To a certain extent, traditional social, economic and ecological evaluation for sustainable land use can be regarded as an appraisal on the temporal scale without evaluation of spatial patterns. Landscape ecology can help to realize spatial evaluation for sustainable land use. In this paper, we construct landscape ecological indicators for evaluating sustainable coastal land use from the aspects of landscape productivity, threats and stability, to realize a synthetic temporal-spatial evaluation. These cover the five pillars of sustainable land use, i.e. productivity, security, protection, viability and acceptability. The results of applying landscape ecological evaluation to a case study in Wudi County in China show that land use sustainability is somewhat low and there are great regional differences between its 11 villages. We classified the 11 villages into 5 grades: strong sustainable land use, sustainable land use, weak sustainable land use, weak unsustainable land use, and strong unsustainable land use. Each grade has different land use characteristics and differs in the counter-measures required. But the core countermeasures in all the grades are to improve landscape productivity, to reduce human threats and to optimize landscape patterns.     

Land-cover change within and around protected areas in a biodiversity hotspot

The landscape surrounding protected areas influences their ability to maintain ecosystem functions and achieve conservation goals. As anthropogenic intensification continues, it is important to monitor land-use and land-cover change in and around protected areas. We measure land-cover change surrounding protected areas in the Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany Biodiversity hotspot from the 1980s to present. Using Landsat imagery, we classified land cover within and around each protected area. Agricultural land uses were increasing and often directly border protected area boundaries. Human settlements increased around every protected area, potentially increasing human activity along the edges of protected areas and threatening their ecological integrity. Urban expansion around protected areas varied but increased as much as 10%. Woody vegetation cover varied both within and around protected areas with possible evidence of deforestation and shrub encroachment throughout the hotspot. We recommend monitoring land cover across southeastern Africa to better understand regional trends in land-use impacts to protected areas.     

Ecological effects associated with land-use change in China's southwest agricultural landscape

Research on land-use and land-cover change, with associated effects on the ecoenvironment, is a key to understanding global change. The concept of 'ecosystem services' is also a hot issue in ecology and ecological economics. In this study, ecosystem service values are used to assess the ecological values of corresponding land-use types, so as to evaluate the ecological effects of regional land-use change. China's southwest agricultural landscape has unique ecological functions; but it also belongs to an ecologically fragile zone. Consequently, land-use change and associated ecological effects must be monitored to assure sustainable development of this area. Based on TM images in 1988, 1994 and 1999, the landscape classification maps of Yongsheng County were assessed using supervised classification and interactive modification methods. The transition matrix of land-use types and three indices of spatial patterns, patch-level, class-level and landscape-level indices, were calculated using models and GIS to examine the spatial patterns and dynamics of land use in the study area. The results show the influences of human activities and natural environmental elements, and that unused land has decreased rapidly, together with a continuous increase in forest during the past 11 years. There are also frequent intermediate transitions between farmland and unused land. An index for landscape diversity shows a tendency to increase, indicating that the proportions of each landscape element tended to average. Also, the decrease in the fractal dimension of unused land reveals that the effects of human activity are increasing. Ecological value calculations show that land-use change in Yongsheng County from 1988–1999 has resulted in positive ecological effects, with distinct spatial differences.     

Land use change around protected areas: management to balance human needs and ecological function.

Protected areas throughout the world are key for conserving biodiversity, and land use is key for providing food, fiber, and other ecosystem services essential for human sustenance. As land use change isolates protected areas from their surrounding landscapes, the challenge is to identify management opportunities that maintain ecological function while minimizing restrictions on human land use. Building on the case studies in this Invited Feature and on ecological principles, we identify opportunities for regional land management that maintain both ecological function in protected areas and human land use options, including preserving crucial habitats and migration corridors, and reducing dependence of local human populations on protected area resources. Identification of appropriate and effective management opportunities depends on clear definitions of: (1) the biodiversity attributes of concern; (2) landscape connections to delineate particular locations with strong ecological interactions between the protected area and its surrounding landscape; and (3) socioeconomic dynamics that determine current and future use of land resources in and around the protected area.     

城市绿地对周边热环境影响遥感研究--以北京为例

城市绿地是缓解城市热环境效应问题的主要因素之一,它不仅在宏观上影响城市区域尺度气候条件,而且在小区尺度直接影响到周边的热环境条件。本文从绿地景观格局的角度出发,利用遥感技术和地理信息技术,以北京市主城区的城市绿地作为研究对象,以绿地周边建筑物作为热环境影响承载体中介,分析了影响建筑热环境的绿地的主要景观因子,开展了城市绿地对周边热环境的影响范围、降温幅度以及绿地景观参数与降温幅度的相关关系研究。首先,从TM遥感影像上人工数字化选取了26个城市绿地斑块,同时提取了其周边建筑物像元;然后,基于定量遥感理论反演了绿地和建筑物的温度,并利用GIS工具统计了绿地和建筑的景观格局信息;最后,基于空间统计分析方法和等温线周长-温度曲线变点方法确定了城市绿地对周围建筑物热环境的影响范围,通过相关性分析探讨了城市绿地景观参数与其降温幅度之间的相关性。研究结果显示：（1）在100 m空间分辨率的尺度下,北京大部分城市绿地斑块对周边100 m范围内的建筑具有降温效应;面积在0.5 km2以上的绿地斑块,对周边100 m范围内建筑物具有明显降温效应,降温幅度在0.46~0.83℃之间,平均降温幅度为0.72℃;面积在0.5 km2以下的,具有较高植被覆盖度的绿地斑块有一定的降温效应,不具有较高植被覆盖度的绿地斑块降温效应不明显;（2）绿地斑块的周长、面积、形状指数和植被覆盖度与其周边建筑物的降温幅度没有显著的相关性。该结果表明,绿地的面积无论多大,其对周边环境的降温效应都限制在一定空间范围内;在布设城市绿地时分散型绿地比集中式大绿地对周边环境的总体降温效应更好。研究结果揭示了城市绿地对周边热环境影响的空间范围、降温幅度以及绿地景观参数与降温幅度的相关关系,可为城市规划建设及环境评价等提供科学参考。     

Effects of land use on water quality of two high-altitude lakes and catchments in Yunnan Province,China

SUMMARY

Reclaiming farmland from lakes in China in the 1950s damaged the water quality of many lakes. Tremendous efforts have been made since the late 1990s to restore vegetation around the damaged lakes. This paper examines water quality of Fuxian and Qilu Lakes and land-use characteristics within the two catchments in the high-altitude area of Yunnan Province, China. Landsat TM data acquired in 1989, 1994, 1999 and 2005 were used to extract land use and land cover (LULC) information. Measurements of five water quality indices (WQIs), BOD, COD, pH, TN and TP, for the same period of time were examined. The results showed that the area of residential and forest/shrub increased, whereas that of cropland and barren land decreased from 1989 to 2005 in both catchments. Qilu Lake was much more polluted than Fuxian Lake, and pollution worsened over time for both lakes. The differences in water quality between the two lakes were caused by differences in LULC composition and continued degradation in water quality was caused by intensive farming and urban sprawl. Unless the landscape is converted back to its pre-1950 composition and structure, water quality in both lakes cannot be significantly improved and will continue to threaten sustainable development in the region.     

Trends in the development of Estonian coastal land cover and landscapes caused by natural changes and human impact

The structure of coastal land cover in Estonia is intricate and exhibits considerable differences from site to site. The diverse geomorphology of the seashores is one of the key factors affecting the speed and magnitude of land cover changes. Likewise, the history of human inhabitance on the coast has also shaped the character of land cover. The Estonian coastal zone has experienced abrupt and radical changes in land ownership and its related land use during the last century. The main objectives of this paper are: 1) to give an overview of land use and the trends of development of land cover pattern along different parts of the Estonian coast; and 2) to analyze the relationships of natural and human processes and their cumulative impact on the evolution of coastal land cover pattern in Estonia. This study is based on results obtained during fieldwork in the study areas and on the analysis of large-scale (1:10,000) historical maps. In agriculturally dominant coastal areas, the traditional open landscape of fields and grassland at the beginning of the 20th century had been replaced by woodland and grasslands with shrubs by the start of the 21st century. Expansion of reed beds in areas of former seashore grasslands is another striking phenomenon. The structure of land cover on forested coasts has been fairly stable during the last 100 years. Areas of urban sprawl are characterised by dramatic changes in land cover structure. Rapidly increasing population and expanding settlements imposes on the ecological balance of the fragile dune forests in the coastal zone.     

Responses of Seed‐Dispersing Birds to Amount of Rainforest in the Landscape around Fragments

Habitat loss and fragmentation alter the composition of bird assemblages in rainforest. Because birds are major seed dispersers in rainforests, fragmentation‐induced changes to frugivorous bird assemblages are also likely to alter the ecological processes of seed dispersal and forest regeneration, but the specific nature of these changes is poorly understood. We assessed the influence of fragment size and landscape forest cover on the abundance, species composition, and functional properties of the avian seed disperser community in an extensively cleared, former rainforest landscape of subtropical Australia. Bird surveys of fixed time and area in 25 rainforest fragments (1–139 ha in size across a 1800 km² region) provided bird assemblage data which were coupled with prior knowledge of bird species’ particular roles in seed dispersal to give measurements of seven different attributes of the seed disperser assemblage. We used multimodel regression to assess how patch size and surrounding forest cover (within 200 m, 1000 m, and 5000 m radii) influenced variation in the abundance of individual bird species and of functional groups based on bird species’ responses to fragmentation and their roles in seed dispersal. Surrounding forest cover, specifically rainforest cover, generally had a greater effect on frugivorous bird assemblages than fragment size. Amount of rainforest cover within 200 m of fragments was the main factor positively associated with abundances of frugivorous birds that are both fragmentation sensitive and important seed dispersers. Our results suggest a high proportion of local rainforest cover is required for the persistence of seed‐dispersing birds and the maintenance of seed dispersal processes. Thus, even small rainforest fragments can function as important parts of habitat networks for seed‐dispersing birds, whether or not they are physically connected by vegetation. Respuestas de Aves Dispersoras de Semillas al Incremento de Selvas en el Paisaje Alrededor de Fragmentos     

Considerations about the land use and conversion trends in the savanna environments of Central Brazil under a geomorphological perspective

Assuming that the landscape physiographic characteristics strongly determine the occurrence of land use and land cover types, this study assessed the distribution patterns of natural and converted classes in relation to the major geomorphological units and slope ranges in the central area of continuous savanna formations in Brazil (Cerrado biome), the country’s most important region for cattle ranching and intensive commodity crops. Our results showed that 93% of the agriculture activities are concentrated at slopes of less than 5°, mostly associated to old regional planation surfaces (RPSs). Considering the amount of remnant vegetation and the occupation and land use deterministic trends, we estimated that between 58,041 km² and 79,677 km² of conversions may occur in the near future. If the priority areas for biodiversity conservation are properly enforced and effectively incorporated into the system of fully protected areas and areas of sustainable use, a decrease of approximately 24% in the expected potential deforestation could be achieved.