Modelling the resilience of Australian savanna systems to grazing impacts.

Savannas occur across all of northern Australia and are extensively used as rangelands. A recent surge in live cattle exports to Southeast Asia has caused excessive grazing impacts in some areas, especially near watering points. An important ecological and management question is "how resilient are savanna ecosystems to grazing disturbances?" Resilience refers to the ability of an ecosystem to remain in its current state (resist change) and return to this state (recover) if disturbed. Resilience responses can be measured using field data. These responses can then be modelled to predict the likely resistance and recovery of savannas to grazing impacts occurring under different climatic conditions. Two approaches were used to model resilience responses. First, a relatively simple mathematical model based on a sigmoid response function was used. This model proved useful for comparing the relative resilience of different savanna ecosystems, but was limited to ecosystems and conditions for which data were available. Second, a complex process model, SAVANNA, was parameterised to simulate the structure and function of Australian savannas. Simulations were run for 50 years at two levels of grazing to evaluate resistance and then for another 50 years with no grazing to evaluate recovery. These runs predicted that savanna grasslands were more resistant to grazing (changed less) than red-loam woodlands, which recovered relatively slowly from grazing impacts. The SAVANNA model also predicted that these woodlands would recover slightly slower under the climate change scenario projected for northern Australia.     

Educating for sustainable production and consumption and sustainable livelihoods: learning from multi-stakeholder networks

This paper examines how education for sustainable development (ESD) can be concretely advanced using the theoretical approaches of sustainable consumption and production (SCP) and sustainable livelihoods (SL). Five case examples illustrate a diverse set of strategic educational interventions focusing on: (1) education of specific organizational actors about these theoretical frameworks illustrated with case examples (such as SCP training by the United Nations University Institute of Advanced Studies [UNU-IAS] and CSR-Asia of government and business representatives), (2) regional education strategies focused on production and consumption in specific sectors (such as the food sector in Sk?ne, Sweden), (3) social learning directed at innovation for sustainable development (such as competitions of solar boats developed by universities in the region of Friesland, the Netherlands), (4) education of consumers and firms made possible by the adoption of certification systems affirming SCP and SL (such as Cradle-to-Cradle certification of a paper company in the Netherlands or the establishment of Fair Trade cities in Sweden), or (5) reorienting communities to address underutilized productive physical capital within communities (such as the sharing productive capital project in rural areas of Saskatchewan, Canada). The cases are drawn from the projects that the UNU-IAS, four of its regional centers of expertise (RCE) on ESD and other affiliates have conducted. In addition to documenting the educational processes emerging from specific regions, the paper highlights findings related to the success of these projects and opportunities for further research, including regional and inter-regional approaches.     

Modelling and analysis of sustainable manufacturing system using a digraph-based approach

Abstract

Sustainable manufacturing practices have many benefits like cleaner production, resource efficiency along with economic benefits. Sustainable manufacturing practices focuses on four dimensions environment, economy, business and society. The effective deployment of sustainable concepts mostly depends on interaction of these sustainable dimensions. In this study, an attempt on assessment through modelling has been presented. Mostly two factors determine the sustainable performance of organisation: the performance of the criteria is identified under four dimensions (inheritance) and their interaction (interdependency) among each other. Thus, graph theory-based modelling has been done considering both inheritance and interdependency for computing Overall Organisation Sustainability (OOS) score. Finally, permanent scores for matrices obtained from experts’ team have been computed. OOS score for the organisation has been computed and is compared with the scores of hypothetical scenarios. Through the comparison with hypothetically generated practical best and worst-case scenario, insights have been derived.     

Development,local livelihoods,and vulnerabilities to global environmental change in the South American Dry Andes

Climate change will increasingly impact large areas of South America, affecting important natural resources and people’s livelihoods. These impacts will make rural people disproportionately more vulnerable, given their dependency on ecosystem services and their exposure to other stressors, such as new rules imposed by agribusiness and trends toward the commodification of natural resources. This paper focuses on the vulnerability of rural communities in Andean drylands of Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, showing how different economic and political pathways lead to different levels of vulnerability. The paper begins with a brief discussion of the methodological and theoretical concept of vulnerability, which framed the research. Starting from the premise that global environmental change impacts are strongly linked to styles of development, the discussion explores the diverse institutional capital and governance schemes as well as different development styles in the case studies and their role in increasing or reducing local vulnerability to climate and water scarcity. Using a comparative perspective, the exposures and adaptive capacities of rural actors in three river basins are discussed, emphasizing situations that speak for the ways in which development styles counteract or magnify conditions of vulnerability. The analysis considers irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture, water property interests, different productive structures (viticulture, horticulture, etc.), producer typologies (large/small, export, etc.), and geographical location. Finally, the paper offers some insights about development style and adaptive capacities of rural people to overcome those vulnerabilities.     

Respiratory effects of household exposures to tobacco smoke and gas cooking on nonsmokers

The records of 708 nonsmoking white adult residents of Washington County, MD, who had participated in two of respiratory symptoms were analyzed to evaluate the effects of exposure at home to two potential sources of indoor air pollution: cigarette smoking by other household members, and use of gas as a cooking fuel. After adjustment for the effects of age, sex, socioeconomic level, occupational exposure to dust, and years of residence in household, the presence of one or more smokers in the household was only suggestively associated with a higher frequency of chronic phlegm and impaired ventilatory function defined as FEV₁ < 80% predicted. The use for cooking was associated with a significantly increased frequency of chronic cough and a significantly greater percentage with impaired ventilatory function as measured both by FEV₁ < 80% predicted and by FEV₁/FVC < 70%.     

Integrated Simulation and Modelling Approach to Decision Making and Environmental Protection

This paper's objective is first to test the application of computer simulation and modelling tools in investigating the effects of applying sustainable manufacturing practices in a smelter plant, and second, to prove quantitatively and visually that 'sustainibility is free'. A simulation model is built to test and capture two different operating polices, 'Policy 1' and 'Policy 2', of an industrial system. In the case study, the simulation model is designed to reflect the effects of decision making in the activites found in a smelter plant, and to quantify the cost, sustainable and environmental consequences based on the decisions. Apart from providing a means of accurately measuring a system's performance, the purpose of using simulation tools is also to link the economic factors, such as productivity and total costs, as well as the sustainable factors, such as natural resource and energy consumption of a system. The simulation results prove quantitatively and visually that sustainability is not only 'free' but is, in fact, a far better proposition for economic growth in the medium to longer term than traditional forms of management.     

Modelling and experimental studies on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit

Although fruit is an important component of the diet, the extent to which it contributes to radiological exposure remains unclear, partially as a consequence of uncertainties in models and data used to assess transfer of radionuclides in the food chain. A Fruits Working Group operated as part of the IAEA BIOMASS (BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment) programme from 1997 to 2000, with the aim of improving the robustness of the models that are used for radiological assessment. The Group completed a number of modelling and experimental activities including: (i) a review of experimental, field and modelling information on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (ii) discussion of recently completed or ongoing experimental studies; (iii) development of a database on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (iv) development of a conceptual model for fruit and (v) two model intercomparison studies and a model validation study. The Group achieved significant advances in understanding the processes involved in transfer of radionuclides to fruit. The work demonstrated that further experimental and modelling studies are required to ensure that the current generation of models can be applied to a wide range of scenarios.     

Options for water storage and rainwater harvesting to improve health and resilience against climate change in Africa

West and East Africa experience high variability of rainfall that is expected to increase with climate change. This results in fluctuations in water availability for food production and other socioeconomic activities. Water harvesting and storage can mitigate the adverse effects of rainfall variability. But past studies have shown that when investments in water storage are not guided by environmental health considerations, the increased availability of open water surface may increase the transmission of water-related diseases. This is demonstrated for schistosomiasis associated with small reservoirs in Burkina Faso, and for malaria in Ethiopia around large dams, small dams, and water harvesting ponds. The concern is that the rush to develop water harvesting and storage for climate change adaptation may increase the risk for already vulnerable people, in some cases more than canceling out the benefits of greater water availability. Taking health issues into account in a participatory approach to planning, design, and management of rainwater harvesting and water storage, as well as considering the full range of water storage options would enable better opportunities for enhancing resilience against climate change in vulnerable populations in sub-Saharan Africa.     

The forecasting of municipal waste generation using artificial neural networks and sustainability indicators

The feasibility of modeling municipal waste generation (MWG) for countries at different levels of development using artificial neural networks (ANN) and selected generic indicators of sustainability was investigated. The main goals of this research were to develop ANN-based models for predicting MWG, to overcome the problem of incomplete MWG data, which is notable in developing countries, and to provide a new method for the planning of municipal solid waste management systems as well as for the simulation of various other scenarios. Data from 26 European countries was used in this study as training, test and validation datasets for the developing of ANN models. Since this kind of modeling is particularly important for developing countries where MWG data is missing or incomplete, emphasis was placed on modeling of MWG for Bulgaria and Serbia. Based on a comparison of actual MWG data with predictions given by the model, we show that ANNs can be applied successfully to modeling and forecasting MWG on a national scale. Moreover, the scope for possible application of the model is broad, since it uses generic indicators of sustainability such as gross domestic product, domestic material consumption and resource productivity, and performs well for countries with highly diversified levels of economic development, industrial structure, productivity and output.     

Landscape changes and environmental quality: the evolution of land vulnerability and potential resilience to degradation in Italy

Resilience, considered as the ability of a system to absorb and compensate pressures derived from human and natural systems, is a topic of interest in the Mediterranean region whose landscape is the joint result of social, economic and environmental factors. The present study analyses the changes in the Italian landscape over two periods (1960–1990 and 1990–2010) of the last 50 years through a composite index of environmental resilience and vulnerability to land degradation. Results indicate that the spatial distribution of this index has been considerably changed from a relatively simple geography (mainly reflecting a latitude gradient) to a more complex pattern. The level of vulnerability of southern Italian land maintained quite stable while increasing significantly in Northern and Central Italy. The (potential) resilience level decreased over time in Central and Northern Italy while growing moderately in Southern Italy. This means that important processes of environmental changes impacting landscape resilience occurred with a different spatial trend in Italy. The composite index derived from vulnerability and potential resilience estimates at the regional scale revealed crucial to map over time the increase of surface land exposed to desertification risk. Results support the adoption of measures promoting a sustainable land management in environmentally vulnerable land with low potential to resilience.     

Levels of brominated flame retardants in blood in relation to levels in household air and dust

Levels of tri- to decabrominated diphenyl ethers (BDEs), 1,2-bis(2,4,6-tribromophenoxy)ethane (BTBPE) and 1,2-bis(pentabromophenyl)ethane (DeBDethane) were determined in air, sedimentary dust and human plasma from five households in Sweden. The levels of the individual BDEs in the plasma samples were in the same order of magnitude as in other studies of the general population in Scandinavia, and varied between non-detectable (<0.41 ng g(-1) l.w.) to 17 ng g(-1) (l.w.). BDE#28 and #47 were present in all air samples, with mean values of 0.015 and 0.12 ng m(-3), respectively, except for one sample where the BDE#47 concentration was below the limit of detection (<0.17 ng m(-3)). BDE#209 was found in one of the five air samples at a concentration of 0.26 ng m(-3). DeBDethane was also detected in one sample, in which the BDE#209 level was below LOD (<0.021 ng m(-3)), at a level of 0.023 ng m(-3). All the target compounds were found in the sedimentary dust samples at levels from 0.51 to 1600 ng g(-1), the highest concentration representing BDE#209. The most abundant components in plasma, air and dust were BDE#47, #99 and #209. In the plasma samples BDE#207 and #206 were also present at similar concentrations as BDE#47. In the sedimentary dust samples, DeBDethane was also among the most abundant BFRs. A positive relationship was found for the sumBDE concentrations in dust and plasma, although the relationship was strongly dependent on one of the five observations. BFR levels in dust and air were not dependent on the house characteristics such as living area, floor material or number of electronic devices.     

Investigating the sensitivity of household food security to agriculture-related shocks and the implication of social and natural capital

This paper examines the impact of agriculture-related shocks on consumption patterns of rural farming households using 3 years of data from South Africa. We make two key observations. First, agriculture-related shocks reduce households’ consumption. Second, natural resources and informal social capital somewhat counteract this reduction and sustain dietary requirements. In general, our findings suggest the promotion of informal social capital and natural resources as they are cheaper and more accessible coping strategies, in comparison to, for example, insurance, which remains unaffordable in most rural parts of sub-Saharan Africa. However, a lingering concern centres on the sustainability of these less conventional adaptation strategies.     

Toward sustainable adaptation to future climate change: insights from vulnerability and resilience approaches analyzing agrarian system of Iran

There is no certainty that adaptation to climate change is sustainable, and new approaches to assess current climate change adaptation trajectories are sorely needed. In this paper, we review the farmer-focused approaches (typical of vulnerability approaches) and agro-ecosystem-focused approaches (typical of resilience approaches). We propose that a combination of the two may be a better way to conceptualize sustainable adaptation to future climate change within an agro-ecological system. To test our hypothesis, we use the case study of Iran, a land that has shown both tremendous resilience and vulnerability in its agro-ecological system. We explore the changes that have occurred in the Iranian farming system and their implications for farmers’ resilience to climate change through an integrated lens combining vulnerability approaches and resilience approaches. During the previous five decades, we describe how Iranian peasants have become small farmers, the land tenure system has changed from a traditional landlord-sharecropping system to family farms, and the quantity and quality of the agro-ecological resources have changed considerably. Our integrative approach provides important insights for both research and policy. We show that combining the two approaches can have far-reaching implications for farmers’ adaptation to future climate change knowledge, policy, and practice since one approach aims to decrease farmers vulnerability and the other approach aims to build resilient agro-ecosystems.     

Sustainable design of the household water treatment systems using a novel integrated fuzzy QFD and LINMAP approach: a case study of Iran

Environment, Development and Sustainability - There is a high possibility that pursuit of water policies goals which could have impacts on water security. Decision makers are interested in...     

Modelling 3H and 14C transfer to farm animals and their products under steady state conditions

The radionuclides (14)C and (3)H may both be released from nuclear facilities. These radionuclides are unusual, in that they are isotopes of macro-elements which form the basis of animal tissues, feed and, in the case of (3)H, water. There are few published values describing the transfer of (3)H and (14)C from feed to animal derived food products under steady state conditions. Approaches are described which enable the prediction of (14)C and (3)H transfer parameter values from readily available information on the stable H or C concentration of animal feeds, tissues and milk, water turnover rates, and feed intakes and digestibilities. We recommend that the concentration ratio between feed and animal product activity concentrations be used as it is less variable than the transfer coefficient (ratio between radionuclide activity concentration in animal milk or tissue to the daily intake of a radionuclide).     

Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

To study potential consequences of climate-induced changes in the biotic disturbance regime at regional to national scale we integrated a model of Ips typographus (L. Scol. Col.) damages into the large-scale forest scenario model EFISCEN. A two-stage multivariate statistical meta-model was used to upscale stand level damages by bark beetles as simulated in the hybrid forest patch model PICUS v1.41. Comparing EFISCEN simulations including the new bark beetle disturbance module against a 15-year damage time series for Austria showed good agreement at province level (R2 between 0.496 and 0.802). A scenario analysis of climate change impacts on bark beetle-induced damages in Austria’s Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] forests resulted in a strong increase in damages (from 1.33 Mm3 a⁻¹, period 1990–2004, to 4.46 Mm3 a⁻¹, period 2095–2099). Studying two adaptive management strategies (species change) revealed a considerable time-lag between the start of adaptation measures and a decrease in simulated damages by bark beetles.     

Modelling the connection between energy consumption and carbon emissions in North Africa: Evidence from panel models robust to cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity

Environment, Development and Sustainability - This paper explored the link between energy consumption and carbon emissions in North Africa through an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework....     

Recent progress in developing and using personal monitors to measure human exposure to air pollutants

Within the last two years, great progress has been made in the field of personal air quality monitors. Improvements in pump design, miniaturization, adsorption techniques, and new collection principles have produced about a dozen sensitive monitors capable of being used by the general public to measure their normal everyday exposure to many toxic or carcinogenic compounds. This article reviews recent progress in this field, particularly as it relates to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency programs.