Beijing's coordinated development of population,resources, environment,and economy

Since the Olympic Games will be held in Beijing at 2008, the urban development plan of Beijing deserves special attention. The essence of regional sustainable development is that population (P), resources (R), environment (E) and economy (E) could develop with sustenance, order and coordination during a certain period, which forms a complex system called the PREE complex system. For this system, a multi-objective integrated model is formulated and solved by a nonlinear goal programming technique. Beijing's PREE complex system is then used as an empirical study. Twelve interesting goals are carefully selected, the parameters of each goal function were estimated by using Beijing's 50-year (1949–1999) statistical data, and their ideal goal limits for 2000 and 2005 are chosen according to the 9th and 10th Five-Year Economic Development Plans of Beijing. The results showed that population size is the most sensitive element in Beijing's PREE complex system. Furthermore, some suggestions related to public policies about the urban development of Beijing are proposed.     

A Numerical and Field Investigation of Surface Heat Fluxes from Small Wind-Sheltered Waterbodies in Semi-Arid Western Australia

Shelterbelts are used for a variety of purposes in agricultural environments, primarily because of their ability to improve the downwind microclimate. Excessive evaporative losses from small, agricultural water supply reservoirs in semi-arid Western Australia motivated a combined numerical modelling and field investigation into the potential for using shelterbelts to reduce evaporation from these open waterbodies. A numerical model of the disturbed momentum and turbulence fields in the region modified by the wind-shelter was employed and accounted for the presence of a waterbody downwind. The model was coupled with conservation equations for heat and moisture and sensible and latent heat fluxes were estimated from the simulated momentum, temperature and humidity fields. The numerical simulations were tested against four days of field data from two experiments conducted in the agricultural districts of southwest Western Australia that measured boundary-layer evolution over a variety of small waterbodies protected by artifical and natural wind-shelters. The model provided good predictions of windspeed during neutral conditions, but inadequate specification of the upwind boundary during non-neutral stabilities resulted in the model failing to capture any sensitivity to atmospheric stability as seen in the field data. Despite this limitation, the temperature and humidity fields were adequately captured by the model, and evaporative mass flux predictions also agreed well with estimates taken from water-balance measurements. It is concluded that well-designed wind-shelters can reduce evaporation from open waterbodies by 20–30% as a result of reductions in the velocity scales responsible for removing moisture from the water surface. The model can be used to estimate the values of various shelterbelt design parameters (e.g., porosity, height) that could be applied in the field to provide optimum evaporation reductions.     

漓江流域红壤侵蚀区植被演替与复合农林试验

漓江季节性的干旱和洪涝并存成为地方政府、有关专家和旅游行业密切关注的环境问题,漓江流域的环境建设尤其是上游森林植被恢复,成为生态治理重点内容。漓江上游红壤区植被类型主要包括针叶林、阔叶林、竹林、灌丛和草丛,植被的水分特征差异较大,植被的生态调节、水源涵养功能各异。在漓江上游红壤区开展4种模式的植被恢复和复合农林试验示范,3年的试验表明,乡土常绿阔叶树适应性强、有效保持水土,果林经济效益显著、但生态功能较差,木本药材林具有较好的生态功能和潜在的经济效益。通过调查和试验示范,提出亚热带红壤退化山地农林经营的植物种类和复合模式,对漓江流域水资源调控和水土流失治理提出建议和对策。     

红壤立体栽培模式中玉米氮、磷、钾配方施肥数学模型的研究

采用氟、磷、钾化肥三因素通用旋转组合设计，通过计算机模拟寻优，建立了湘南砂岩红壤玉米－大豆立体栽培模式中玉米施肥量－产量、玉米施肥量－利润数学模型；优选出玉米产量和利润最高的各10套施肥方案；计算出玉米最高产量的施肥量为：尿素750kg／hm2，过磷酸钙1125kg／hm2，氯化钾332kg／hm2，N∶P2O5∶K2O＝1∶0.39∶0.58；计算出玉米最佳经济效益施肥量为：尿素712.8kg／hm2，过磷酸钙1125kg／hm2，氯化钾285.2kg／hm2，N∶P2O5∶K2O＝1∶0.41∶0.52．玉米与大豆的产量间以及两者的利润间均呈极显著正相关．     

The Importance of Being Spatial (and Reserved): Assessing Northern Spotted Owl Habitat Relationships with Hierarchical Bayesian Models

Abstract:  Regional conservation planning increasingly draws on habitat suitability models to support decisions regarding land allocation and management. Nevertheless, statistical techniques commonly used for developing such models may give misleading results because they fail to account for 3 factors common in data sets of species distribution: spatial autocorrelation, the large number of sites where the species is absent (zero inflation), and uneven survey effort. We used spatial autoregressive models fit with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to assess the relationship between older coniferous forest and the abundance of Northern Spotted Owl nest and activity sites throughout the species' range. The spatial random-effect term incorporated in the autoregressive models successfully accounted for zero inflation and reduced the effect of survey bias on estimates of species–habitat associations. Our results support the hypothesis that the relationship between owl distribution and older forest varies with latitude. A quadratic relationship between owl abundance and older forest was evident in the southern portion of the range, and a pseudothreshold relationship was evident in the northern portion of the range. Our results suggest that proposed changes to the network of owl habitat reserves would reduce the proportion of the population protected by up to one-third, and that proposed guidelines for forest management within reserves underestimate the proportion of older forest associated with maximum owl abundance and inappropriately generalize threshold relationships among subregions. Bayesian spatial models can greatly enhance the utility of habitat analysis for conservation planning because they add the statistical flexibility necessary for analyzing regional survey data while retaining the interpretability of simpler models.     

渝北不同模式水源涵养林植物多样性及其与土壤特征的关系

以重庆缙云山8种不同构建模式的水源涵养林及林地土壤为研究对象,用物种多样性指数(simpson指数、Shannon-Wiener指数)、均匀度指数(Pieiou指数)和物种丰富度指数(Margalef指数)以及用土壤容重、毛管孔隙度、非毛管孔隙度、pH值、有机质、全氮、全磷、全钾、速效氮、有效磷、速效钾和阳离子交换量12个指标表征土壤的物理性状和养分特征,分析了8种群落的植物多样性、土壤特征及二者的相互关系.结果表明:物种多样性以广东山胡椒(Lindera kwangtungensis)×杉木((7unninghamia anceolata)混交林最高.马尾松(Pinus massoniana)×广东山胡椒混交林次之,马尾松×柳杉(Cryptomeria fortunei Hooibrenk)混交林和毛竹(Phyllostachys pubescens)纯林最低.各模式林地土壤特征差异显著,以毛竹纯林土壤质量最差.在该地区针阔混交林对提高物种多样性和改良土壤作用显著,针叶林及纯林则较差.物种多样性指数与土壤特征因子的相关性分析表明,不同模式水源林群落植物多样性与土壤特征因子存在一定相关性,其中与土壤物理性状特征关系不显著,与养分特征关系显著.全N与全K与四个多样性指数呈显著或极显著的正相关,Shannon-Wiener指数、Simpson指数和有机质、阳离子交换量、速效P呈显著的正相关,特别是有机质和全N两因子与物种多样性关系最密切.     

Estimating the critical phosphorus loading of shallow lakes with the ecosystem model PCLake: Sensitivity, calibration and uncertainty

There is a vast body of knowledge that eutrophication of lakes may cause algal blooms. Among lakes, shallow lakes are peculiar systems in that they typically can be in one of two contrasting (equilibrium) states that are self-stabilizing: a ‘clear’ state with submerged macrophytes or a ‘turbid’ state dominated by phytoplankton. Eutrophication may cause a switch from the clear to the turbid state, if the P loading exceeds a critical value. The ecological processes governing this switch are covered by the ecosystem model PCLake, a dynamic model of nutrient cycling and the biota in shallow lakes. Here we present an extensive analysis of the model, using a three-step procedure. (1) A sensitivity analysis revealed the key parameters for the model output. (2) These parameters were calibrated on the combined data on total phosphorus, chlorophyll-a, macrophytes cover and Secchi depth in over 40 lakes. This was done by a Bayesian procedure, giving a weight to each parameter setting based on its likelihood. (3) These weights were used for an uncertainty analysis, applied to the switchpoints (critical phosphorus loading levels) calculated by the model. The model was most sensitive to changes in water depth, P and N loading, retention time and lake size as external input factors, and to zooplankton growth rate, settling rates and maximum growth rates of phytoplankton and macrophytes as process parameters. The results for the ‘best run’ showed an acceptable agreement between model and data and classified nearly all lakes to which the model was applied correctly as either ‘clear’ (macrophyte-dominated) or ‘turbid’ (phytoplankton-dominated). The critical loading levels for a standard lake showed about a factor two uncertainty due to the variation in the posterior parameter distribution. This study calculates in one coherent analysis uncertainties in critical phosphorus loading, a parameter that is of great importance to water quality managers.