Stochastic approaches for time series forecasting of boron: a case study of Western Turkey

In the present study, a seasonal and non-seasonal prediction of boron concentrations time series data for the period of 1996–2004 from Büyük Menderes river in western Turkey are addressed by means of linear stochastic models. The methodology presented here is to develop adequate linear stochastic models known as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) to predict boron content in the Büyük Menderes catchment. Initially, the Box–Whisker plots and Kendall’s tau test are used to identify the trends during the study period. The measurements locations do not show significant overall trend in boron concentrations, though marginal increasing and decreasing trends are observed for certain periods at some locations. ARIMA modeling approach involves the following three steps: model identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic checking. In the model identification step, considering the autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) results of boron data series, different ARIMA models are identified. The model gives the minimum Akaike information criterion (AIC) is selected as the best-fit model. The parameter estimation step indicates that the estimated model parameters are significantly different from zero. The diagnostic check step is applied to the residuals of the selected ARIMA models and the results indicate that the residuals are independent, normally distributed, and homoscadastic. For the model validation purposes, the predicted results using the best ARIMA models are compared to the observed data. The predicted data show reasonably good agreement with the actual data. The comparison of the mean and variance of 3-year (2002–2004) observed data vs predicted data from the selected best models show that the boron model from ARIMA modeling approaches could be used in a safe manner since the predicted values from these models preserve the basic statistics of observed data in terms of mean. The ARIMA modeling approach is recommended for predicting boron concentration series of a river.     

Determination of landscape beauties through visual quality assessment method: a case study for Kemaliye (Erzincan/Turkey)

Kemaliye (Erzincan/Turkey) is the member of European Association of Historic Towns and Regions. The aim of this study was to reveal the visual richness of the town; to identify the relationship between landscape spatial pattern and visual quality of the landscape and to offer some suggestions for the future planning in regarding to these visual beauties. The visual quality assessment method was used in this study. The results of the study revealed three landscape types that have the highest visual quality. Among those, the highest one is urban scenery 3 (US3; VQP = 5.9400), the second is geological structure scenery 5 (GSS 5; VQP = 5.9200) and the third natural scenery 3 (NS3; VQP = 5.9133). Visual quality assessment showed that urban pattern, geological structure and natural resources of the region also have visual value. The relationships between landscape spatial pattern and visual quality of landscape indicated that certain characteristics of landscape affected the quality. For instance, as the texture level decreased in natural landscapes and as the green areas increased in geological structure, visual preferences ratio increased. Some suggestions were also made regarding the visual resources use in the region.     

Performance of biotic indices in comparison to chemical-based Water Quality Index (WQI) in evaluating the water quality of urban river

In order to evaluate the water quality of one of the most polluted urban river in Malaysia, the Penchala River, performance of eight biotic indices, Biomonitoring Working Party (BMWP), BMWP^Thai, BMWP^Viet, Average Score Per Taxon (ASPT), ASPT^Thai, BMWP^Viet, Family Biotic Index (FBI), and Singapore Biotic Index (SingScore), was compared. The water quality categorization based on these biotic indices was then compared with the categorization of Malaysian Water Quality Index (WQI) derived from measurements of six water physicochemical parameters (pH, BOD, COD, NH₃-N, DO, and TSS). The river was divided into four sections: upstream section (recreational area), middle stream 1 (residential area), middle stream 2 (commercial area), and downstream. Abundance and diversity of the macroinvertebrates were the highest in the upstream section (407 individual and H′?=?1.56, respectively), followed by the middle stream 1 (356 individual and H′?=?0.82). The least abundance was recorded in the downstream section (214 individual). Among all biotic indices, BMWP was the most reliable in evaluating the water quality of this urban river as their classifications were comparable to the WQI. BMWPs in this study have strong relationships with dissolved oxygen (DO) content. Our results demonstrated that the biotic indices were more sensitive towards organic pollution than the WQI. BMWP indices especially BMWP^Viet were the most reliable and could be adopted along with the WQI for assessment of water quality in urban rivers.     

Remote sensing and GIS-based integrated analysis of land cover change in Duzce plain and its surroundings (north western Turkey)

The aim of this study is to research natural land cover change caused by the permanent effects of human activities in Duzce plain and its surroundings, and to determine the current status of the land cover. For this purpose, two Landsat TM images were used in the study for the years 1987 and 2010. These images are analysed by using data image processing techniques in ERDAS Imagine©10.0 and ArcGIS©10.0 software. Land cover change nomenclature is classified according to the Coordination of Information on the Environment Level 2 Classification (1—urban fabric, 2—industrial, commercial and transport units, 3—heterogeneous agricultural areas, 4—forests, and 5—inland wetlands). Furthermore, the image analysis results are confirmed by the field research. According to the results, a decrease of 33.5 % was recorded in forest areas from 24,840.7 to 16,529.0 ha; an increase of 11.2 % was recorded in heterogeneous agricultural areas from 47,702.7 to 53,051.7 ha. Natural vegetation, which is the large part of land cover in the research area, has been changing rapidly because of rapid urbanisation and agricultural activities. As a result, it is concluded that significant changes have occurred on the natural land cover between the years 1987 and 2010 in the Duzce plain and its surroundings.     

Assessment of groundwater quality of the Tatlicay aquifer and relation to the adjacent evaporitic formations (Cankiri,Turkey)

One of the most important hydrogeologic problems in and adjacent areas of evaporitic formations is severe quality degradation of groundwaters. These kinds of groundwaters contain high content of dissolved solids and generally have some limitations for use. Tatlicay basin (north-central Turkey) is an example to effects of the evaporites on groundwater quality in the adjacent alluvium aquifer. Gypsum and anhydrites in the two evaporite formations (Bayindir and Bozkir) effect of the groundwater quality in the alluvium adversely, by dissolution of the evaporites by surface drainage and infiltration into the alluvium aquifer (widespread effect) and by infiltration of low quality gypsum springs (local effect) into the aquifer. Evaporitic formations significantly increased EC, TDS, Ca and SO₄ parameters in the alluvium aquifer in the central and downstream regions. EC has increased roughly from 500–800 to 1,700–2,000 μS/cm, Ca has roughly increased from 3–4 to 10 meq/l, SO₄ has increased 0.5–1 to 11–12 meq/l. Consequently, three clusters were distinguished in the basin; (1) nonevaporitic waters in low TDS, Na, Ca, Mg, Cl and SO₄, (2) diluted waters in high TDS and relatively high Cl, moderate-relatively high Na, Ca, Mg, SO₄, (3) gypsum springs in highest TDS, Ca, SO₄, but moderate Mg and low Na, Cl.     

Using fatty acids to fingerprint biofilm communities: a means to quickly and accurately assess stream quality

The assessment of lotic ecosystem quality plays an essential role to help determine the extent of environmental stress and the effectiveness of restoration activities. Methods that incorporate biological properties are considered ideal because they provide direct assessment of the end goal of a vigorous biological community. Our primary objective was to use biofilm lipids to develop an accurate biomonitoring tool that requires little expertise and time to facilitate assessment. A model was created of fatty acid biomarkers most associated with predetermined stream quality classification, exceptional warm water habitat (EWH), warm water habitat (WWH), and limited resource (LR-AMD), and validated along a gradient of known stream qualities. The fatty acid fingerprint of the biofilm community was statistically different (P?=?0.03) and was generally unique to recognized stream quality. One striking difference was essential fatty acids (DHA, EPA, and ARA) were absent from LR-AMD and only recovered from WWH and EWH, 45 % more in EWH than WWH. Independently testing the model along a stream quality gradient, this model correctly categorized six of the seven sites, with no match due to low sample biomass. These results provide compelling evidence that biofilm fatty acid analysis can be a sensitive, accurate, and cost-effective biomonitoring tool. We conceive of future studies expanding this research to more in-depth studies of remediation efforts, determining the applicable geographic area for the method and the addition of multiple stressors with the possibility of distinguishing among stressors.     

Water quality trends in the Delaware River Basin (USA) from 1980 to 2005

In 1940, the tidal Delaware River was ??one of the most grossly polluted areas in the United States.?? During the 1950s, water quality was so poor along the river at Philadelphia that zero oxygen levels prevented migration of American shad leading to near extirpation of the species. Since then, water quality in the Delaware Basin has improved with implementation of the 1961 Delaware River Basin Compact and 1970s Federal Clean Water Act Amendments. At 15 gages along the Delaware River and major tributaries between 1980 and 2005, water quality for dissolved oxygen, phosphorus, nitrogen, and sediment improved at 39%, remained constant at 51%, and degraded at 10% of the stations. Since 1980, improved water-quality stations outnumbered degraded stations by a 4 to 1 margin. Water quality remains good in the nontidal river above Trenton and, while improved, remains fair to poor for phosphorus and nitrogen in the tidal estuary near Philadelphia and in the Lehigh and Schuylkill tributaries. Water quality is good in heavily forested watersheds (>50%) and poor in highly cultivated watersheds. Water quality recovery in the Delaware Basin is coincident with implementation of environmental laws enacted in the 1960s and 1970s and is congruent with return of striped bass, shad, blue crab, and bald eagle populations.     

Groundwater levels time series sensitivity to pluviometry and air temperature: a geostatistical approach to Sfax region,Tunisia

In this paper, the pattern of groundwater level fluctuations is investigated by statistical techniques for 24 monitoring wells located in an unconfined coastal aquifer in Sfax (Tunisia) for a time period from 1997 to 2006. Firstly, a geostatistical study is performed to characterize the temporal behaviors of data sets in terms of variograms and to make predictions about the value of the groundwater level at unsampled times. Secondly, multivariate statistical methods, i.e., principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) of time series of groundwater levels are used to classify groundwater hydrographs regard to identical fluctuation pattern. Three groundwater groups (A, B, and C) were identified. In group “A,” water level decreases continuously throughout the study periods with rapid annual cyclic variation, whereas in group “B,” the water level contains much less high-frequency variation. The wells of group “C” represents a steady and gradual increase of groundwater levels caused by the aquifer artificial recharge. Furthermore, a cross-correlation analysis is used to investigate the aquifer response to local rainfall and temperature records. The result revealed that the temperature is more affecting the variation of the groundwater level of group A wells than the rainfall. However, the second and the third groups are less affected by rainfall or temperature.     

Water quality assessment of Almatti Reservoir of Bijapur (Karnataka State, India) with special reference to zooplankton

The present investigation deals with the limnobiotic status of Almatti reservoir from February, 2003 to January, 2005. The study revealed that, the distribution and population density of zooplankton species depend upon the physico-chemical factors of the environment. Statistical analysis showed that there exists a significant relation between the biological and non-biological factors. The benthic fauna constituting the food of fish can be utilized for extensive culture operation so that the nutrients in the reservoir are not only properly cycled but also serve as a check on further eutrophication.     

Application of remote sensing data and GIS for landslide risk assessment as an environmental threat to Izmir city (west Turkey)

In this study, landslide risk assessment for Izmir city (west Turkey) was carried out, and the environmental effects of landslides on further urban development were evaluated using geographical information systems and remote sensing techniques. For this purpose, two different data groups, namely conditioning and triggering data, were produced. With the help of conditioning data such as lithology, slope gradient, slope aspect, distance from roads, distance from faults and distance from drainage lines, a landslide susceptibility model was constructed by using logistic regression modelling approach. The accuracy assessment of the susceptibility map was carried out by the area under curvature (AUC) approach, and a 0.810 AUC value was obtained. This value shows that the map obtained is successful. Due to the fact that the study area is located in an active seismic region, earthquake data were considered as primary triggering factor contributing to landslide occurrence. In addition to this, precipitation data were also taken into account as a secondary triggering factor. Considering the susceptibility data and triggering factors, a landslide hazard index was obtained. Furthermore, using the Aster data, a land-cover map was produced with an overall kappa value of 0.94. From this map, settlement areas were extracted, and these extracted data were assessed as elements at risk in the study area. Next, a vulnerability index was created by using these data. Finally, the hazard index and the vulnerability index were combined, and a landslide risk map for Izmir city was obtained. Based on this final risk map, it was observed that especially south and north parts of the Izmir Bay, where urbanization is dense, are threatened to future landsliding. This result can be used for preliminary land use planning by local governmental authorities.     

Water quality change in dam reservoir and shallow aquifer: analysis on trend,seasonal variability and data reduction

Change of water quality in dam reservoir and aquifer complicates safe drinking water supply. Few parameters are monitored to control water quality in these sources. Adequate knowledge on the correlation structure, interaction effect, trends and seasonal variability of these parameters is essential to control water quality. This study applied time series and multivariate analyses on 15 water quality parameters, collected from the King Fahd dam reservoir (L1) and aquifer (L2) in Saudi Arabia during April 2010 to February 2012. Moderate to strong correlations were observed between sulfate, hardness, fluoride, chloride, magnesium, conductivity, turbidity and total dissolved solids (TDS), while separate clusters were visible for TDS-chloride-magnesium-conductivity; fluoride-turbidity; chloride-hardness; ammonia-nitrate; and calcium-magnesium-hardness. Four major principal components explained 81.1 % and 83.2 % of the overall variances in L1 and L2, respectively. The factor analysis showed that 53 % and 67 % of the data were necessary to explain 81.3 % and 83.2 % of total variances for L1 and L2, respectively, indicating the possibility of data reduction. Possible degradation of water quality in these sources was highlighted, while such degradation may require enhanced treatment for producing drinking water in future.     

Speciative determination of Cr (III) and Cr (VI) in dyeing waste water of Dil Creek discharge to Izmit Gulf (Izmit-Kocaeli, Turkey) by ICP-AES

Wastewater pollution in industrial areas is one of the most important environmental problems. Heavy metal pollution, especially chromium pollution in wastewater sources from dyeing and tannery has affected the life on earth. This pollution can affect all ecosystems and human health directly or by food chain. Therefore, the determination of chromium in this study is of great importance. Dil Creek is located in the eastern Marmara region and discharges into the Izmit Gulf. This water source is used for irrigation in agriculture and as drinking water for animals. In this study, a rapid, sensitive and selective method for the speciative direct determination of Cr (III) and Cr (VI) in dyeing waste water samples collected from the nearest station to Izmit Gulf of Dil Creek in May 2006 by inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES) has been developed. An analysis of a given sample is completed in about 15 min for ICP-AES the method. As the result of the chromium analysis, the limit of quantification (LOQ) for the Cr (III), Cr (VI) and total Cr were founded as 0.0111 ± 0.0002 mg/l (RSD, 1.80%), 0.0592 ± 0.0010 mg/l (RSD, 1.70%) and 0.0703 ± 0.0020 mg/l (RSD, 2.84%) respectively. In addition, the general mathematical formula has been developed to calculate the concentration of Cr(III), which can be applied to any other metal species. The result of Cr (VI) analysis indicated that water quality of Creek was IV. class quality according to the inland water classification. In order to validate the applied method, recovery studies were performed.     

Water quality decline in coastal aquifers under anthropic pressure: the case of a suburban area of Dakar (Senegal)

In recent years, the unregulated increase of the population in coastal areas of developing countries has become source of concern for both water supply and quality control. In the region of Dakar (Senegal), approximately 80% of water resources come from groundwater reservoirs, which are increasingly affected by anthropogenic pressures. The identification of the main sources of pollution, and thus the aquifer vulnerability, is essential to provide a sound basis for the implementation of long-term geochemically based water management plans in this sub-Saharan area. With this aim, a hydrochemical and isotopic survey on 26 wells was performed in the so-called Peninsula of Cap-Vert. Results show that seawater intrusion represents the main process affecting groundwater chemical characteristics. Nitrates often exceed the World Health Organization drinking water limits: stable isotopes of dissolved nitrate ( $\updelta ^{15}$ N and $\updelta ^{18}$ O) indicate urban sewage and fertilizers as a major source of contamination. Results depict a complex situation in which groundwater is affected by direct and indirect infiltration of effluents, mixing with seawater and freshening processes from below. Besides the relevance of the investigation at a regional level, it represents a basis for decision-making processes in an integrated water resources management and in the planning of similar monitoring strategies for other urban coastal regions.     

Response of groundwater to climate variation: fluctuations of groundwater level and well yields in the Halacli aquifer (Cankiri, Turkey)

The aim of this study was to investigate the response of groundwater level and well yields in the Halacli aquifer to climate variations in Central Anatolia, Turkey. The Halacli aquifer is a typical aquifer due to its vulnerability to the climate variations. The aquifer is shallow and its recharge area is small. The waters from rains and snow melts can rapidly infiltrate down to the groundwater body because the vadose zone is thin and formed from coarse material. Therefore, the groundwater system responds to the short-term recharges by raising its level. Although any exploitation did not occur, the groundwater levels have declined from 1989 to 1997. However, the groundwater levels began rising when the exploitation started in the summer of 1998. After the year 2000, although the amount and duration of yearly exploitation was constant, fluctuations of water level continued. Fluctuation of groundwater levels and well yields bewilders the water users and imperils the sustainable water management in the study area and also in arid and semi-arid regions of Turkey. In order to overcome this problem, behavior of groundwater level and discharges of the wells must be recorded and the water users must be informed about the current conditions and the possible trend in the future of the system.     

Development of a software package for trend detection in temporal series: Application to water and industrial effluent quality data for the St. Lawrence River

Despite the considerable amount of effort and resources involved in monitoring water quality, water quality assessment and environmental follow-up are sometimes carried out with simple statistics, the main reason being the lack of appropriate statistical methods adapted to the nature of sampled water quality data.A survey of the classical methods used for trend detection and of their limitations is first presented, including the most recent non-parametric techniques adapted to the structure of the sampled data and to the possible types of trends occuring. This paper then presents an interactive user-friendly software package developed for microcomputers making use of these latest adapted techniques. Afterwards, some applications of the software are described pertaining to the concentrations measured at long-term stations on the St. Lawrence River and to the mass loadings discharged by regulated industries. Finally, conclusions are drawn about the assumptions, performance and limitations of the package as well as about the research needs to improve the usefulness and applicability of the software.     

Aeromonas and Pseudomonas: antibiotic and heavy metal resistance species from Iskenderun Bay, Turkey (northeast Mediterranean Sea)

We studied the susceptibility patterns to 15 different antibiotics and six heavy metals in Aeromonas spp. and Pseudomonas spp. isolated from Iskenderun Bay, Turkey (northeast Mediterranean Sea). A high percentage of Aeromonas isolates showed resistance to cefazolin (66.6%) and trimethoprim–sulphamethoxazole (66.6%). Amongst the Pseudomonas isolates, there was a high incidence of resistance to nitrofurantoin (86.2%), cefazolin (84.8%) and cefuroxime (71.7%). Most isolates showed tolerance to different concentrations of heavy metals, and minimal inhibition concentrations ranged from 25 to >3,200 μg/ml. The Aeromonas spp. and Pseudomonas spp. showed high resistance to copper of 98.3% and 75.4%, respectively, and low resistance to lead of 1.7% and 7.2%, respectively. Our results show that antibiotic and heavy metal resistant Aeromonas spp. and Pseudomonas spp. were widespread in Iskenderun Bay in 2007 and 2008. The increasing presence of antibiotic and heavy metal resistant Aeromonas spp. and Pseudomonas spp. may become a potential human health hazard.     

Evaluation of surface water quality by using Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment Water Quality Index (CCME WQI) method and discriminant analysis method: a case study Coruh River Basin

In this study, the water quality of the Coruh River Basin, which is located in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey, was evaluated. The water quality data measurement results obtained by the State Hydraulic Works 26th Regional Directorate from four different sites over a course of 4 years between the years 2011 and 2014 in the Coruh River Basin were used as the data. In this study, the water quality was evaluated by using the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environmental Water Quality Index (CCME WQI) method and discriminant analysis (DA). The water quality of the Coruh River Basin was calculated as 30.4 and 71.35 by using the CCME WQI and classified as “poor,” “marginal,” and “fair”. These values show that the water of the Coruh River Basin is degraded and under threat and its overall quality is not close to natural or desired levels. The monitoring sites were divided into two groups by the cluster analysis (CA). DA is a multivariate analysis technique used to divide individuals or objects into different groups and assign them into predetermined groups. As a result of DA, calcium (Ca) and sulfate (SO₄) were determined to be significant parameters in the determination of the water quality of the Coruh River Basin. The success of DA depends on the percentage of correct classification. As a result of the analysis, 23% of the parameters in the first measurement point, 69.2% of the parameters in the second and third measurement points, and 76.9% of the parameters in the fourth measurement point were classified correctly. Since the second measurement point is the discharge point of a copper mine, it can be said that the water quality parameters measured may provide accurate results in detecting pollution at this point.