禹城地区土壤铅含量空间分布的指示克里格估值

以鲁西北禹城地区土壤重金属Pb含量为例,针对其存在特异值与偏态分布的特点,利用指示克里格法研究了土壤Pb含量小于特定阈值的条件概率分布,分析了该地区土壤Pb含量的空间分布特征,并对普通克里格和指示克里格的估值效果进行交叉验证。结果表明：研究区土壤Pb含量总体较低,未超过国家标准的限值,但不同部位土壤Pb含量差异较大;普通克里格法和指示克里格法形成的土壤Pb含量空间分布格局相似,但普通克里格法的平滑效果强于指示克里格法;研究区域土壤环境质量总体良好,Pb含量高值区主要集中在各乡镇驻地附近的农田;指示克里格对土壤Pb含量空间估值的精度优于普通克里格,指示克里格法更适用于原始数据呈非正态分布且特异值对估值结果有较大影响的土壤属性。本研究结果为该地区土壤环境质量评价和重金属污染防控提供科学依据。     

Throughflow analysis: A stochastic approach

Ecological network analysis (ENA), predicated on systems theory and Leontiev input–output analysis, is a method widely used in ecology to reveal ecosystem properties. An important ecosystem property computed in ENA is throughflows, the amount of matter/energy leaving each compartment of the ecosystem. Throughflows are analyzed via a matrix representing their relationships to the driving input at the boundary. Network particle tracking (NPT) builds on ENA to offer a Lagrangian particle method that describes the activity of the ecosystem at the microscopic level. This paper introduces a Lagrangian throughflow analysis methodology using NPT and shows that the NPT throughflow matrix, , agrees with the conventional ENA throughflow matrix, , for ecosystems at steady-state with donor-controlled flows. The matrix is computed solely from the pathways (particles’ histories) generated by NPT simulations and its average over multiple runs of the algorithm with longer simulation time agrees with the Eulerian matrix (Law of Large Numbers). While the traditional NEA throughflow analysis is mostly used with steady-state ecosystem models, the Lagrangian throughflow analysis that we propose can be used with non-steady-state models and paves the way for the development of dynamic throughflow analysis.     

Identification of the largest individual sample value using composite sample data and certain modifications of the sweep-out method

Cost-effective hotspot identification is an important issue in hazardous waste site characterization and evaluation. Composite sampling techniques are known to be cost effective when the cost of measurement is substantially higher than the cost of sampling. Although compositing incurs no loss of information on the means, information on individual sample values is lost due to compositing. In particular, if the interest is in identifying the largest individual sample value, the composite sampling techniques are not able to do so. Under certain assumptions, it may be possible to satisfactorily predict individual sample values using the composite sample data, but it is not generally possible to identify the largest individual sample value. In this paper, we propose two methods of identifying the largest individual sample value with some additional measurement effort. Both methods are modifications of the simple sweep-out method proposed earlier. Since analytical results do not seem to be feasible, performance of the proposed methods is assessed via simulation. The simulation results show that both the proposed methods, namely the locally sequential sweep-out and the globally sequential sweep-out, are better than the simple sweep-out method.Prepared with partial support from the Statistical Analysis and Computing Branch, Environmental Statistics and Information Division, Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC under a Cooperative Agreement Number CR-821531. The contents have not been subjected to Agency review and therefore do not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

土壤、土地利用多样性及其与相关景观指数的关联分析

土壤作为人类赖以生存的物质基础,与土地利用之间存在密切联系,土壤类型及属性的差异很大程度上决定了土地利用的方式,同时土地利用方式的不同也间接地改变着土壤类型、性质及功能多样性的格局。在人地矛盾、人与自然矛盾不断加剧的今天,研究土地和土壤的空间分布格局变化及两者之间的交互关系具有重要意义。利用土壤多样性理论和景观生态学原理综合分析土壤、土地利用类型的空间分布格局,并借助空间网格的概念量化分析土壤和土地利用类型的空间分布情况。以河南省中南部样区为研究对象,利用仙农熵变形公式计算了1 km×1 km、3 km×3 km、5 km×5 km 3种网格尺度下的土壤和土地利用的空间分布多样性和各县市的土壤和土地利用构成组分多样性,运用ArcGIS探讨了多样性指数与景观指数之间的关联性,综合评价研究区的土壤类型空间分布与土地利用空间分布格局的相互性。研究表明：同一种土壤和土地利用类型的空间分布多样性指数在异网格尺度下具有相似的分异规律;土地利用与土壤类型的构成组分多样性之间不具有明显的相关性,土壤类型均匀分布的地区,土地利用类型不一定会均匀分布,而两者的平均斑块面积之间具有明显的相关性,土壤斑块的大小对土地利用斑块的大小影响较大,土壤类型的空间分布特征在一定程度上,将影响土地利用的空间分布格局和变化过程;土壤类型的面积指数、平均斑块面积指数分别与土壤空间分布多样性之间具有较好的相关性,相关系数分别为r2=0.990、r2=0.599。而土地利用的面积指数、平均斑块面积指数与土地利用空间分布多样性指数之间的相关性较差,相关系数分别为r2=0.437、r2=0.034。土壤的平均斑块形状指数与多样性指数之间存在一定正相关关系,相关系数为r2=0.612;但土地利用的形状指数与多样性之     

Estimator bias and efficiency for adaptive cluster sampling with order statistics and a stopping rule

Practical problems facing adaptive cluster sampling with order statistics (acsord) are explored using Monte Carlo simulation for three simulated fish populations and two known waterfowl populations. First, properties of an unbiased Hansen-Hurwitz (HH) estimator and a biased alternative Horvitz-Thompson (HT) estimator are evaluated. An increase in the level of population aggregation or the initial sample size increases the efficiencies of the two acsord estimators. For less aggregated fish populations, the efficiencies decrease as the order statistic parameter r (the number of units about which adaptive sampling is carried out) increases; for the highly aggregated fish and waterfowl populations, they increase with r. Acsord is almost always more efficient than simple random sampling for the highly aggregated populations. Positive bias is observed for the HT estimator, with the maximum bias usually occurring at small values of r. Secondly, a stopping rule at the Sth iteration of adaptive sampling beyond the initial sampling unit was applied to the acsord design to limit the otherwise open-ended sampling effort. The stopping rule induces relatively high positive bias to the HH estimator if the level of the population aggregation is high, the stopping level S is small, and r is large. The bias of HT is not very sensitive to the stopping rule and its bias is often reduced by the stopping rule at smaller values of r. For more aggregated populations, the stopping rule often reduces the efficiencies of the estimators compared to the non-stopping-rule scheme, but acsord still remains more efficient than simple random sampling. Despite its bias and lack of theoretical grounding, the HT estimator is usually more efficient than the HH estimator. In the stopping rule case, the HT estimator is preferable, because its bias is less sensitive to the stopping level.     

大沽河流域微塑料在不同介质中的空间分布及其潜在来源探究

微塑料作为一种新型污染物已对环境健康构成了严重威胁. 为调查微塑料在城市河流不同介质中的污染特征及其迁移规律,并基于城市中不同功能区的划分探究微塑料的潜在来源,以青岛大沽河为例,在2020年6月对表层水和沉积物进行取样分析. 结果表明,大沽河表层水和沉积物中微塑料丰度 分别为0.6—3.8 items·L⁻¹和60—480 items·kg⁻¹,表层水体中大粒径微塑料（>3 mm）占比最多,为28.95%,而沉积物中小粒径微塑料（0.5—1 mm）占比最多,为40.48%;大沽河微塑料颜色以深色系为主（黑色、蓝色和红色）,形状主要是纤维状,材质主要是人造丝、聚对苯二甲酸乙二醇酯和聚乙烯;表层水和沉积物中,微塑料丰度之间并无相关性,但微塑料在流域空间分布上存在迁移转化过程,并发现沉积物是城市河流微塑料的初始汇. 通过多重对应分析技术对大沽河流域不同功能区微塑料的颜色、粒径、聚合物成分和形状四个变量建立相关性模型,可以进一步溯源微塑料的源头。结果表明,无论水体还是沉积物,微塑料的来源因区域不同存在差异,但同一区域水体和沉积物中来源类似,具有受本地输入影响的明显特征.     

Model correlation in stochastic forest simulators—A case of multilevel multivariate model for seedling establishment

Forest development can be predicted by the use of forest simulators based on various statistical models describing the forest and its dynamics. One potential approach to study the reliability of the simulators is to utilise Monte Carlo simulation techniques to generate a predictive distribution of a forest characteristic. One problem in examining the effect of model uncertainty in forestry decision making, however, is correlation between the models. If this is not taken into account, predictions of the model systems may become biased, and the effect of errors on decision making may be underestimated. In reality, the models often are interdependent, but the correlations usually are not known because the models have been estimated in separate studies. The aim of this paper is to study the impacts of between-model dependencies on the predictive distribution of forest characteristics by Monte Carlo simulation techniques. We utilise a case of predicting seedling establishment of planted Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) stands as an example with multivariate multilevel model structures. Regardless of low cross-correlations between the models, ignoring them led to significant underestimation of the amount of competing broadleaves to be removed in pre-commercial thinning. Therefore, we recommend that between-model dependencies are clarified and considered in stochastic simulations. In our case, between-model interdependencies can be reliably estimated with a limited dataset. In addition, estimating the models separately and using the model residuals to estimate interdependencies between models were also sufficient to take the between-model dependencies into account when producing stochastic predictions for silvicultural decision making.     

On the random placement hypothesis

A traditional method of summarizing spatial distribution of species is the observed species-area curve. Often the observed species-area curve is surprisingly close to the expected species-area curve under the hypothesis of random placement of individuals. This has been used as evidence supporting the hypothesis. In this paper, we argue that using the observed species-area curve to test the general random placement hypothesis is highly inefficient. We present a testing method based on the classical ² test for over-dispersion which is not only more efficient but also applicable to situations where complete abundance information are unavailable. We also discuss three alternatives of the hypothesis. The focus of this paper is on these and other general issues relevant to communities of different types. No applications are included in this paper.     

Unveiling human-assisted dispersal mechanisms in invasive alien insects: Integration of spatial stochastic simulation and phenology models

Capturing the spread of biological invasions in heterogeneous landscapes is a complex modelling task where information on both dispersal and population dynamics needs to be integrated. Spatial stochastic simulation and phenology models have rarely been combined to assist in the study of human-assisted long-distance dispersal events.Here we develop a process-based spatially explicit landscape-extent simulation model that considers the spread and detection of invasive insects. Natural and human-assisted dispersal mechanisms are modelled with an individual-based approach using negative exponential and negative power law dispersal kernels and gravity models. The model incorporates a phenology sub-model that uses daily temperature grids for the prediction and timing of the population dynamics in each habitat patch. The model was applied to the study of the invasion by the important maize pest western corn rootworm (WCR) Diabrotica virgifera ssp. virgifera in Europe. We parameterized and validated the model using maximum likelihood and simulation methods from the historical invasion of WCR in Austria.WCR was found to follow stratified dispersal where international transport networks in the Danube basin played a key role in the occurrence of long-distance dispersal events. Detection measures were found to be effective and altitude had a significant effect on limiting the spread of WCR. Spatial stochastic simulation combined with phenology models, maximum likelihood methods and predicted versus observed regression showed a high degree of flexibility that captured the salient features of WCR spread in Austria. This modelling approach is useful because it allows to fully exploit and the often limited and heterogeneous information available regarding the population dynamics and dispersal of alien invasive insects.     

基于粒径谱分布的南京市区大气颗粒物来源解析

2013年8月8日—2013年8月29日期间,于南京市气象局采用扫描电迁移率粒径谱仪(SMPS)连续监测颗粒物粒径谱分布.运用正交矩阵因子分析法(PMF)分析得出了观测期间气溶胶粒径分布的4个源.结合痕量气体数据(NOx)、气溶胶光吸收系数(Babs781)和颗粒物化学成分(SO42-、NO3-)确认出4个源,即近处交通排放源、远处交通排放源、混合燃烧排放源和二次气溶胶源.同时基于气象数据(风向和风速),通过条件概率函数(CPF)判断出4个源的方位.近、远处交通源与NOx的日变化规律相似,混合燃烧源与Babs781具有较为一致的变化趋势,而二次气溶胶源与SO42-和NO3-浓度之和有较好的相关性.4个源的贡献率依次分别为14%、24%、37%和25%,表明混合燃烧排放的相对贡献最大.     

Space-time modeling for the Missouri Turkey Hunting Survey

The Missouri Turkey Hunting Survey (MTHS) is a postseason mail survey conducted by the Missouri Department of Conservation. The 1996 MTHS provides information concerning the number of turkeys harvested by hunters on each day and the total number of trips made to the counties by these hunters on each day of the hunting season. The success rates are then found from this information. Small sample sizes produce large standard errors for the estimates at the county level. We use a Bayesian hierarchical generalized linear model to estimate daily hunting success rates at the county level. The model includes an autoregressive process for the days of the hunting season and spatially correlated random geographic effects. The computations are performed using Gibbs sampling and adaptive rejection sampling techniques. Results show that there are significant spatial corelations between counties and correlations between days of the hunting season. The estimates are close to the frequency estimates at the state level and much more stable at the county level.     

沿海发展区海水入侵与土壤盐渍化空间关联解析

沿海地区经济的快速发展、资源的大量开发,使海水入侵、土壤盐渍化等海岸带环境问题加剧。为了研究沿海发展区海水入侵与土壤盐渍化程度与驱动因素,探究海水入侵与土壤盐渍化的空间关联性,选择沿海的海绵城市试点—庄河市为研究对象,通过地下水与土壤的野外采样检测,运用kriging插值法分析研究区地下水与土壤盐渍化空间分布特征,利用SPSS聚类分析、ArcGIS10.2实现海水入侵与土壤盐渍化的空间关联解析。结果表明：庄河市沿海地带地下水位低、埋深浅处易发生海水入侵,40%的地下水氯离子浓度（23.40 — 432.60 mg·L⁻¹）和矿化度（0.22 — 1.98 g·L⁻¹）超标,超标点位由海水入侵引起;土壤pH值和全盐含量分别在6.20 — 8.30和0.10% — 0.80%之间,盐渍化土壤亦主要分布在沿海地带,以氯化物—硫酸盐土以及硫酸盐—氯化物型为主;地下水浓度与土壤盐渍化程度呈现由沿海向内陆逐渐降低的空间一致性;地下水埋深、矿化度与土壤全盐含量呈现较高的相关性,表明海水入侵对土壤盐分有直接影响,贡献率达到50%以上,是庄河市沿海地带土壤盐渍化问题的主要控制因素,最后,提出庄河市防止海水入侵是治理土壤盐渍化的根本措施,为后续沿海地区盐碱化防治研究提供方向。     

长江口及邻近海域水体中石油烃分布特征及其污染评价

根据2001—2009及2013年的10年间5、8月份丰水期对长江口及邻近海域的调查监测资料,研究了水体中石油烃的时空分布特征及污染情况,分析了其污染来源,探讨了其影响机理.研究结果表明,10年间调查海域石油烃范围为0—0.41 mg·L-1,平均浓度为0.08 mg·L-1,各年际间石油烃浓度有显著性差异（P<0.05）,且均存在不同程度的超标情况;水体中石油烃空间分布格局整体上呈由近岸向远岸递减的趋势,河口水动力稀释、颗粒悬浮物的吸附作用是控制石油烃分布的主要因素;调查海域空间分布尺度上可以划分为近岸海域和远岸海域两部分,聚类分析、MDS排序分析以及ANOSIM检验均支持了划分结果.     

陕西省金水河中溶解性重金属的分析及污染源识别

对陕西省金水河水体中溶解性重金属进行监测与分析,结果表明:(1)水体中重金属的平均含量依次为FeVCuZnMoMnNiCoCd,全部符合国家饮用水标准;Cu超出地表水Ⅰ类标准限值;除Mn外,其余重金属的含量均超过汉江上游及长江河源区河水的背景值.(2)溶解性重金属的含量存在明显的空间分布特征,Cu,Zn,Mn,Fe,Zn,Ni和Mo在流域内人类活动区(如金水镇和庙坝村)的含量最高.(3)利用因子分析提取了4个公因子,揭示影响水体重金属含量的污染源主要来自未经处理的生活污水和农田地表径流;同时,根据因子得分系数,判断各个因子对水质污染的贡献率.     

水体沉积物中酸挥发性硫化物垂直分布模型的参数计算及相关分析

应用试验及文献数据计算了东湖沉积物中酸挥发性硫化物 (AVS)垂直分布模型的参数值,并进行了参数的相关性分析.结果表明,AVS含量是沉积物中有机质的分解、AVS的沉淀、溶解及氧化共同作用的结果,较好地解释了东湖三个污染状况不同站点AVS垂直分布的差异,从而为应用AVS判断沉积物重金属生物有效性提供了科学依据.     

2003—2010年中国对流层CO2时空分布研究

利用2003年到2010年的美国宇航局（National Aeronautics and Space Administration,NASA）的AIRS（Atmosphere InfraRed Sounder）官方反演的对流层中层（500 hPa）左右一段气柱内的CO2体积混合比产品分析中国地区对流层的CO2体积分数分布时空变化特征。所用数据是对AIRS L3产品2°×2.5°网格数据进行处理分析得到。经过对这8年的观测数据（2003年1月—2010年12月）的数据分析研究发现：中国地区平均CO2的体积分数在空间分布上极不平衡,总体高值集中于北部。CO2对流层中层的高值区集中在35°—45°N,形成东北平原、内蒙古中西部地区、塔克拉玛干沙漠和塔里木盆地4个高值中心,而云南地区和西藏南部上空的CO2值偏低。与中国地区8年平均CO2体积分数变化特征大体一致,每月（8年平均值）分布趋势也呈北部地区和东部地区高而南方体积分数值相对低的特征。CO2月平均体积分数的最高值一般出现在每年的4月或者5月,而每年的最低值则出现在每年的1月。对流层中层CO2体积分数呈现明显季节变化,总体上来说,从2003年到2010年这8年中,平均春、夏两季对流层中CO2含量较高,而秋、冬季CO2低于春夏两季。     

淮南潘集采煤沉陷区地表水中氮、磷特征

根据2012年11月至2013年9月的9次监测数据,分析了淮南潘集开放型和封闭型采煤沉陷区地表水中氮、磷时空分布特征及污染源;通过相关性分析揭示了同类水体内氮、磷之间的响应关系和运移特征;通过各形态氮、磷比率分析了两类水体中氮、磷组成.结果表明,NH3-N（氨氮）年内时间差异性较小,整体呈KB（开放型地表水）>FB（封闭型地表水）,最大值分别为0.621 mg·L-1（6月）和0.813 mg·L-1（6月）;NO2--N（亚硝酸氮）时空差异性均较小,NO3--N（硝酸盐氮）和TN（总氮）年内时间差异性较大,空间差异性较小,整体上均呈FB>KB.KB与FB内NO2--N最大值分别为0.0485 mg·L-1（6月）和0.0532 mg·L-1（6月）,NO3--N（硝酸盐氮）最大值分别为0.635 mg·L-1（11月）和0.623 mg·L-1（4月）,TN最大值分别为2.295 mg·L-1（11月）和2.261 mg·L-1（1月）.PO43-和DTP（溶解性总磷）含量基本呈KB>FB,两形态磷在KB内的最大值分别为0.174 mg·L-1（11月）和0.055 mg·L-1（11月）,FB内最大值分别为0.0298 mg·L-1（6月）和0.0391 mg·L-1（5月）;TP（总磷）基本呈KB-1（8月）和0.197 mg·L-1（5月）.氮、磷主要污染源为降雨地表径流、底泥内源释放及人为活动等;同类沉陷区地表水内各形态氮、磷之间存在不同程度的相关性;两类水体内氮、磷组成存在一定差异性,开放型采煤沉陷区地表水更易发生富营养化现象.     

2003—2010年中国对流层CO2时空分布研究

利用2003年到2010年的美国宇航局(National Aeronautics and Space Administration,NASA)的AIRS(Atmosphere InfraRed Sounder)官方反演的对流层中层(500 hPa)左右一段气柱内的CO2体积混合比产品分析中国地区对流层的CO2体积分数分布时空变化特征。所用数据是对AIRS L3产品2°×2.5°网格数据进行处理分析得到。经过对这8年的观测数据(2003年1月—2010年12月)的数据分析研究发现:中国地区平均CO2的体积分数在空间分布上极不平衡,总体高值集中于北部。CO2对流层中层的高值区集中在35°—45°N,形成东北平原、内蒙古中西部地区、塔克拉玛干沙漠和塔里木盆地4个高值中心,而云南地区和西藏南部上空的CO2值偏低。与中国地区8年平均CO2体积分数变化特征大体一致,每月(8年平均值)分布趋势也呈北部地区和东部地区高而南方体积分数值相对低的特征。CO2月平均体积分数的最高值一般出现在每年的4月或者5月,而每年的最低值则出现在每年的1月。对流层中层CO2体积分数呈现明显季节变化,总体上来说,从2003年到2010年这8年中,平均春、夏两季对流层中CO2含量较高,而秋、冬季CO2低于春夏两季。     

Asymptotics in adaptive cluster sampling

In this article we consider asymptotic properties of the Horvitz-Thompson and Hansen-Hurwitz types of estimators under the adaptive cluster sampling variants obtained by selecting the initial sample by simple random sampling without replacement and by unequal probability sampling with replacement. We develop an asymptotic framework, which basically assumes that the number of units in the initial sample, as well as the number of units and networks in the population tend to infinity, but that the network sizes are bounded. Using this framework we prove that under each of the two variants of adaptive sampling above mentioned, both the Horvitz-Thompson and Hansen-Hurwitz types of estimators are design-consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. In addition we show that the ordinary estimators of their variances are also design-consistent estimators.     

Multivariate analysis of spatial patterns: a unified approach to local and global structures

We propose a new approach to the multivariate analysis of data sets with known sampling site spatial positions. A between-sites neighbouring relationship must be derived from site positions and this relationship is introduced into the multivariate analyses through neighbouring weights (number of neighbours at each site) and through the matrix of the neighbouring graph. Eigenvector analysis methods (e.g. principal component analysis, correspondence analysis) can then be used to detect total, local and global structures. The introduction of the D-centring (centring with respect to the neighbouring weights) allows us to write a total variance decomposition into local and global components, and to propose a unified view of several methods. After a brief review of the matrix approach to this problem, we present the results obtained on both simulated and real data sets, showing how spatial structure can be detected and analysed. Freely available computer programs to perform computations and graphical displays are proposed.