EMERGENCY WATER SUPPLIES FROM GROUND WATER IN HUMID REGIONS1

ABSTRACT: This paper focuses on the development and testing of a mathematical model of an emergency ground water supply operated principally during periods of low streamflow. The process of ground water withdrawal and recharge is simulated taking account of streamflow, water demand, evapotranspiration, natural and artificial recharge and increased evapotranspiration due to artificial recharge, ground water pumpage, and streamflow contribution to pumped water. The model determines whether natural recharge is possible in less time than the return period of drought and also whether artificial recharge is needed. By simulating operation over a long period of time, the model can examine different droughts of short and long duration and can test the operating rules for ground water storage development in an area. Submodels analyze the components of the operating process including ground water flow into the stream, seepage losses, stream portion of well discharge due to induced infiltration and recharge from rainfall or water spreading. The model has been tested for areas in the humid northeastern United States.     

REAPPRAISAL OF WATER SUPPLY RESOURCES IN DELAWARE RIVER BASIN USING SYNTHETIC HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT The 60's drought (1961 1966) which hit the Northeastern United States, had its center over the Delaware River Basin and caused water supply shortages to New York City, Philadelphia, and many other towns and industries in the Basin. Until this event occurred, the existing water supply sources and those planned for the future had been considered adequate, as they were designed for the worst drought of record (usually the 1930-31 drought). In view of this “change in hydrology,” the Delaware River Basin Commission authorized a study (DRBC Resolution 67-4) to re-evaluate the adequacy of existing and planned water supply sources of the Delaware River Basin and its Service Area (New York City and northern New Jersey). Synthetic hydrology is a tool which can be used to overcome many of the limitations of the traditional approach. By analyzing generated streamflow traces in this study, it has been determined that there is a definite relationship between the accumulated rainfall deficiency during the drought and the return periods associated with various durations of runoff in the drought. This indicated that generated traces can be used to standardize the hydrology over an area where the intensity of drought varied. This represented an important facet in the study, because it provided a means to equalize the effects of this drought over the study area, and gave the Delaware River Basin Commission more information so that it could better plan and manage its water resources equitably, not only for the people within the Basin, but for the New York City and northern New Jersey areas as well. Synthetic hydrology was used to determine yield-probability relationships for 50-year periods, and storage-yield-frequency relationships for existing and planned water-supply reservoirs. It was also used to determine yield-probability relationships for reservoir systems within the Basin. In the study, it was determined that monthly streamflow traces and uniform draft rates could be used in yield analysis because of the magnitude of the reservoirs and because seasonal variations of draft rate are small in the study area. Although it was found that with the streamflow generating models (first order Markov) in common use today, it is not possible to definitely determine the actual frequency of a very severe historic drought, it is possible to place a drought in perspective by using synthetic hydrology. The study showed that it is a useful tool in determining water availability over a basin and is useful in studying water management problems such as interbasin transfers, and reservoir systems operations.     

A GAMING EVALUATION OF COLORADO RWER DROUGHT MANAGEMENT INSTITUTIONAL OPTIONS1

ABSTRACT: Researchers representing each of the Colorado River Basin states as well as the Secretary of the Interior were presented with an interactive computer simulation of a progressively increasing drought and were given the collective opportunity to change the ways in which basin-wide and within-state water management were conducted. The purpose of this “gaming” exercise was to identify rules for managing the Colorado River which are effective in preventing drought-caused damages to basin water users. This water management game was conducted three times, varying the collective choice roles for management of the river yet staying substantially within the current institution for management of the Colorado River known as the “Law of the River.” The Law of the River was quite effective in minimizing drought impacts upon consumptive water uses. Additional effective drought-coping measures to protect consumptive uses consisted mostly of intrastate water management improvements which states were able to implement independently. The Law of the River did not protect non-consumptive water uses, such as hydroelectric power generation, water-based recreation, endangered species, and water quality from drought, as well as it protected consumptive water uses. Players reached collective choice decisions to cope with rising salinity, equalize storage between the upper and lower basins, and protect endangered species. While these measures had some success, only reductions in withdrawals for consumptive uses, particularly in the upper basin, could have substantially lessened adverse impacts.     

Temporal and Spatial Variability of Water Supply Stress in the Haihe River Basin,Northern China1

Ji, Yuhe, Liding Chen, and Ranhao Sun, 2012. Temporal and Spatial Variability of Water Supply Stress in the Haihe River Basin, Northern China. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 999‐1007. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00671.x Abstract: Water resources are becoming increasingly stressed under the influence of climate change and population growth in the Haihe River Basin, Northern China. Assessing the temporal and spatial variability of water supply stress is urgently needed to mitigate water crisis caused by water resource reallocation. Water supply and use data were compiled for the time period of 1998‐2003 in this synthesis study. The Water Supply Stress Index (WSSI) as defined as Water Demand/Water Supply was used to quantitate whether water supply could meet the demand of human activities across the study region. We found a large spatial gradient of water supply stress in the study region, being much higher in the eastern subbasins (ranging from 2.56 to 4.31) than the west subbasins (ranging from 0.56 to 1.92). The eastern plain region not only suffered more serious water supply stress but also had a much higher interannual variability than the western hilly region. The uneven spatial distribution of water supply stress might result from the distribution of land use, population, and climate. Future climate change and rapid economic development are likely to aggravate the existing water crisis in the study region.     

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF WATER CONSERVATION POLICY1

Water conservation is a much emphasized policy of the Federal government. Discussion of water conservation proposals often involves confusion between a conservation “ethic,” which is an end in itself, and conservation as a means for attaining various economic objectives. Analysis indicates that outside of ground water “mining.” water is usually a renewable and reusable resource. During periods of normal precipitation, water conservation should be employed only when the value of the water saved exceeds the cost of effecting the savings. Water conservation is most valuable as a drought contingency tactic. Water conservation as a substitute for structural provision to meet normal water demand growth is apt to prove shortsighted.     

Models,Assumptions, and Stakeholders: Planning for Water Supply Variability in the Colorado River Basin1

Abstract: Declining reservoir storage has raised the specter of the first water shortage on the Lower Colorado River since the completion of Glen Canyon and Hoover Dams. This focusing event spurred modeling efforts to frame alternatives for managing the reservoir system during prolonged droughts. This paper addresses the management challenges that arise when using modeling tools to manage water scarcity under variable hydroclimatology, shifting use patterns, and institutional complexity. Assumptions specified in modeling simulations are an integral feature of public processes. The policymaking and management implications of assumptions are examined by analyzing four interacting sources of physical and institutional uncertainty: inflow (runoff), depletion (water use), operating rules, and initial reservoir conditions. A review of planning documents and model reports generated during two recent processes to plan for surplus and shortage in the Colorado River demonstrates that modeling tools become useful to stakeholders by clarifying the impacts of modeling assumptions at several temporal and spatial scales. A high reservoir storage‐to‐runoff ratio elevates the importance of assumptions regarding initial reservoir conditions over the three‐year outlook used to assess the likelihood of reaching surplus and shortage triggers. An ensemble of initial condition predictions can provide more robust initial conditions estimates. This paper concludes that water managers require model outputs that encompass a full range of future potential outcomes, including best and worst cases. Further research into methods of representing and communicating about hydrologic and institutional uncertainty in model outputs will help water managers and other stakeholders to assess tradeoffs when planning for water supply variability.     

MUNICIPAL UTILIZATION OF WATER DEMAND MANAGEMENT: THE ONTARIO EXPERIENCE1

ABSTRACT: Managing the demand for municipal water supply has become a viable alternative or supplement to traditional supply management responses. Though senior governments in Canada are committed to the concept, there is a lack of knowledge concerning the level of use of the demand management concept and little promotion of water conservation. This paper assesses the extent of the use of this concept as it applies to municipal water supply across southern Ontario and examines factors that influence the variation in use of water conservation strategies. Information from 219 municipalities revealed that the concept is not in wide use in southern Ontario and that existing variation can be partially explained by the extent of problems experienced and the population size served by the municipal water supply system. Suggestions for increasing municipal use of the demand management concept are offered.     

THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN WATER USE IN THE TUCSON BASIN,ARIZONA1

ABSTRACT: The ground water in the Tucson basin is being drawn faster than it is replenished by nature. The water table is falling, giving rise to several conflicts between water users in the basin. At present, several lawsuits are in progress, including an action by the Papago Tribe against some of the major water users in the basin. Largely because of these difficulties, the State Legislature has established a commission to make proposals for the reform of Arizona's ground water law. The pattern of water use in the basin will undoubtedly be changed by the outcome of the present litigation and the coming reform of Arizona's ground water law. This paper describes how water use in the basin might be affected by changes in the availability of water and gives an account of the effects that these changes in water use could have on the region's economy. The paper concludes that the water problems of the Tucson basin will have little effect on the region at large and that these problems are simply a matter for the Indians and the other water users in the basin to sort out amongst themselves.     

WELFARE EFFECTS OF ALTERNATWE WATER RATIONING SCHEMES: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: Four alternate schemes often used to deal with a water shortage are: physical rationing, lifeline with increasing block rates, rationing with resale, and pure price rationing. Each of these are analyzed using a supply-demand framework. The theoretical results are applied to a representative California water district and the welfare loss is calculated for a hypothetical 20 percent reduction in water supply for six different income classes. We find that reliance on schemes using the price mechanism in one form or another is clearly superior, in terms of welfare loss, as a means of dealing with a water shortage.     

TEMPORARY WATER TRANSFERS FOR DRY-YEAR WATER SUPPLY1

ABSTRACT: Temporary transfers of water for dry year water supply are analyzed for cost and operational feasibility. The temporary transfer is implemented as part of a water rights option agreement (WROA) between a lesson and a lessee. First, engineering analysis determines the technical feasibility and operations plan under the Colorado doctrine of prior appropriation. The cost of the WROA to a water utility is estimated. Other considerations in the agreement are discussed. The WROA is compared to other dry-year supply alternatives using a water system simulation model to obtain expected cost and operational performance characteristics.     

GROUND WATER MANAGEMENT OPTIMIZATION USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS AND SIMULATED ANNEALING: FORMULATION AND COMPARISON1

ABSTRACT: Genetic algorithms (GA) and simulated annealing (SA), two global search techniques, are coupled with MODFLOW, a commonly used groundwater flow simulation code, for optimal management of ground water resources under general conditions. The coupled simulation-optimization models allow for multiple management periods in which optimal pumping rates vary with time to reflect the changing flow conditions. The objective functions of the management models are of a very general nature, incorporating multiple cost terms such as the drilling cost, the installation cost, and the pumping cost. The models are first applied to two-dimensional maximum yield and minimum cost water supply problems with a single management period, and then to a multiple management period problem. The strengths and limitations of the GA and SA based models are evaluated by comparing the results with those obtained using linear programming, nonlinear programming, and differential dynamic programming. For the three example problems examined in this study, the GA and SA based models yield nearly identical or better solutions than the various programming methods. While SA tends to outperform GA in terms of the number of forward simulations needed, it uses more empirical control parameters which have significant impact on solution efficiency but are difficult to determine.     

提高农业用水效率促进农业可持续性发展

乐亭县地处滨海,农业用水效率低,加之上游连年缺水,造成田间荒芜撂荒现象严重.乐亭县是农业大县,工业相对薄弱,掀起一场提高农业用水效率的革命势在必行.主要途径:大力推进节水灌溉制度,调整农业种植结构,积极引进、开发、培育节水高产品种,减少无效蒸发,节水高产施肥、培肥技术.     

HYDROLOGIC SCENARIOS FOR SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: This paper considers the risk of drought and develops drought scenarios for use in the study of severe sustained drought in the Southwestern United States. The focus is on the Colorado River Basin and regions to which Colorado River water is exported, especially southern California, which depends on water from the Colorado River. Drought scenarios are developed using estimates of unimpaired historic streamflow as well as reconstructions of streamflow based on tree ring widths. Drought scenarios in the Colorado River Basin are defined on the basis of annual flow at Lees Ferry. The risk, in terms of return period, of the drought scenarios developed, is assessed using stochastic models.