REGIONAL FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF HYDROLOGIC MULTIYEAR DROUGHTS1

This paper is concerned with regional frequency analysis of hydrologic multiyear droughts. A drought event is defined by three parameters: severity, duration, and magnitude. A method is proposed here to standardize drought severities with a duration adjustment to enable comparison among drought events. For purposes of a regional study, the index drought method is selected and applied to standardized droughts to give a regional frequency curve. However, the recurrence intervals of the drought events obtained from index drought method are limited to the historic period of record. Therefore, by taking advantage of random variations of droughts in both time and space, a multivariate simulation model is used to estimate exceedence probabilities associated with regional drought maxima. This method, named the regional extreme drought method, is capable of generating a series of drought events which, although they have not occurred historically, are more severe than historic events. By combining the results of the index drought method and regional extreme drought analysis, a regional drought probability graph is constructed which ranges from severe droughts to more frequent droughts. This procedure is applied to the mean annual flow records of streams located in the San Joaquin Valley of California, and drought-severity-frequency plots are prepared for 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year durations.     

IS IT REALISTIC TO DEFINE A 100-YEAR DROUGHT FOR WATER MANAGEMENT?1

ABSTRACT: The concept of recurrence interval has been used for years in engineering designs. Can the same concept be applied to the drought analysis? This paper uses the plotting position method to define drought of various recurrence intervals based on stream-flow data. The method of truncation level was applied to the same data to examine the defined drought. Based on the method of truncation level, drought duration and its corresponding flow deficit were investigated. Eighteen flow gage stations from the Scioto River Basin in Ohio were selected for the study. The results show that flows of 100-year droughts using the plotting position method are practically nil. On the other hand, flows of droughts using the truncation method are gradually decreasing with an increase in truncation level, where flows of 95 percent are approximately equal to those of two-year droughts defined by the plotting position. It is also shown that there is a strung correlation between drought duration and deficit.     

Assessment of Future Drought Conditions in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Impacts of climate change on the severity and intensity of future droughts can be evaluated based on precipitation and temperature projections, multiple hydrological models, simulated hydrometeorological variables, and various drought indices. The objective of this study was to assess climate change impacts on future drought conditions and water resources in the Chesapeake Bay (CB) watershed. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model were used to simulate a Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (MPDSI), a Standardized Soil Moisture index (SSI), a Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI), along with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models for both historical and future periods (f1: 2020‐2049, f2: 2050‐2079). The results of the SSI suggested that there was a general increase in agricultural droughts in the entire CB watershed because of increases in surface and groundwater flow and evapotranspiration. However, MPDSI and MSDI showed an overall decrease in projected drought occurrences due to the increases in precipitation in the future. The results of this study suggest that it is crucial to use multiple modeling approaches with specific drought indices that combine the effects of both precipitation and temperature changes.     

SACRAMENTO RIVER FLOW RECONSTRUCTED TO A.D. 869 FROM TREE RINGS1

ABSTRACT: A time series of annual flow of the Sacramento River, California, is reconstructed to A.D. 869 from tree rings for a long‐term perspective on hydrologic drought. Reconstructions derived by principal components regression of flow on time‐varying subsets of tree‐ring chronologies account for 64 to 81 percent of the flow variance in the 1906 to 1977 calibration period. A Monte Carlo analysis of reconstructed n‐year running means indicates that the gaged record contains examples of drought extremes for averaging periods of perhaps = 6 to 10 years, but not for longer and shorter averaging periods. For example, the estimated probability approaches 1.0 that the flow in A.D. 1580 was lower than the lowest single‐year gaged flow. The tree‐ring record also suggests that persistently high or low flows over 50‐year periods characterize some parts of the long‐term flow history. The results should contribute to sensible water resources planning for the Sacramento Basin and to the methodology of incorporating tree‐ring data in the assessment of the probability of hydrologic drought.     

BASE FLOW TRENDS IN URBANIZING WATERSHEDS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER BASIN1

Rapid land development is raising concern regarding the ability of urbanizing watersheds to sustain adequate base flow during periods of drought. Long term streamflow records from unregulated watersheds of the lower to middle Delaware River basin are examined to evaluate the impact of urbanization and imperviousness on base flow. Trends in annual base flow volumes, seven‐day low flows, and runoff ratios are determined for six urbanizing watersheds and four reference watersheds across three distinct physiographic regions. Hydrograph separation is used to determine annual base flow and stormflow volumes, and nonparametric trend tests are conducted on the resulting time series. Of the watersheds examined, the expected effects of declining base flow volumes and seven‐day low flows and increasing stormflows are seen in only one watershed that is approximately 20 percent impervious and has been subject to a net water export over the past 15 years. Both interbasin transfers and hydrologic mechanisms are invoked to explain these results. The results show that increases in impervious area may not result in measurable reductions in base flow at the watershed scale.     

COMPARATIVE STUDY OF DROUGHT PREDICTION TECHNIQUES FOR RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: Predicting the likelihood of a drought markedly enhances the efficiency of reservoir operations. This study applies the kriging method and time series analysis to predict inflows to Shihmen Reservoir in northern Taiwan. A subsequent reservoir operation simulation is employed to determine the drought lead time (DLT), the time before the onset of a drought. A more efficient reservoir operational strategy can be established with the aid of DLT and the probability of successful drought prediction (P s). Simulation results of reservoir operation over a period of three decades demonstrate that, at one month DLT, the kriging approach achieves 0.86 of P s for moderate droughts and 0.94 of P s for severe droughts. The kriging approach generally outperformed the time series approach in terms of DLT, P s of drought prediction, and the number of correctly predicted drought events.     

USE OF THE KRIGING METHOD FOR STUDYING CHARACTERISTICS OF GROUND WATER DROUGHTS1

round water drought events were derived by taking a truncation level through the time series of daily ground water depth that are recorded elevation differences between the water table and land surface at a well site. Droughts of various truncation levels at 70, 80, 90, and 95 percent, were obtained, where a 70 percent truncation level means that 70 percent of ground water depth data are less than or equal to the truncated value. The conditional probability that a drought occurring at a certain truncation level will prolong and advance to that of the next higher level was estimated. The regionalization analysis was conducted assuming that conditional probabilities estimated at selected wells are regionalized variables. Contour lines of conditional probabilities for each truncation level were constructed to express their spatial variability in the region. Estimation errors associated with the regionalization were reasonably small.     

TREE‐RING BASED RECONSTRUCTIONS OF INTERANNUAL TO DECADAL SCALE PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY FOR NORTHEASTERN UTAH SINCE 1226 A.D.1

ABSTRACT: Samples from 107 piñon pines (Pinns edulis) at four sites were used to develop a proxy record of annual (June to June) precipitation spanning the 1226 to 2001 AD interval for the Uinta Basin Watershed of northeastern Utah. The reconstruction reveals significant precipitation variability at interannual to decadal scales. Single‐year dry events before the instrumental period tended to be more severe than those after 1900. In general, decadal scale dry events were longer and more severe prior to 1900. In particular, dry events in the late 13th, 16th, and 18th Centuries surpass the magnitude and duration of droughts seen in the Uinta Basin after 1900. The last four decades of the 20th Century also represent one of the wettest periods in the reconstruction. The proxy record indicates that the instrumental record (approximately 1900 to the Present) underestimates the potential frequency and severity of severe, sustained droughts in this area, while over representing the prominence of wet episodes. In the longer record, the empirical probability of any decadal scale drought exceeding the duration of the 1954 through 1964 drought is 94 percent, while the probability for any wet event exceeding the duration of the 1965 through 1999 wet spell is only 1 percent. Hence, estimates of future water availability in the Uinta Basin and forecasts for exports to the Colorado River, based on the 1961 to 1990 and 1971 to 2000 “normal” periods, may be overly optimistic.     

Characterization of Drought in the South Atlantic,United States

Drought has been less extensively characterized in the humid South Atlantic compared to the arid western United States. Our objective was to characterize drought in the South Atlantic and to understand whether drought has become more severe in this region over time. Here we used monthly streamflow to characterize hydrological drought. Hydrological drought occurred when streamflow fell below the 20th percentile over three consecutive months and terminated once streamflow remained above the 20th percentile for three consecutive months. We characterized the frequency, duration, magnitude, and severity of events using the above definition. Significant changes in drought characteristics were tested with Mann‐Kendall over three periods: 1930‐2010, 1930‐1969, and 1970‐2010. We show that 71% of drought events were shorter than six months, while 7% were multiyear events. There was little evidence of trends in drought characteristics to support the claim of drought becoming more severe in the South Atlantic over the 20th Century. The one exception was a significant increase in the joint probability of nearby basins being simultaneously in drought conditions in the southern portion of the study area from 1970 to 2010. While drought characteristics have changed little through time, decreasing average streamflow in non drought periods coupled with increasing water demand provide the context within which recent multiyear drought events have produced significant stress on existing water infrastructure.     

THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX AS A MEASURE OF HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT1

ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is perhaps the most widely used regional drought index. However, there is considerable ambiguity about its value as a measure of hydrologic drought. In this paper the PDSI for climatic divisions in New Jersey is compared to the occurrence within each climatic division of streamflows in their lower quartile for the month (streamflow index), and ground-water levels in their lower quartile for the month (ground-water index). These indices are found to have distinct properties. It is not uncommon for PDSI values to indicate “severe” or “extreme” drought at times when the streamflow or groundwater index is above its lower quartile at many stations within the climatic division. The PDSI values and groundwater index indicate more persistent subnormal conditions than the streamflow index for truncation levels yielding the same total duration of drought over a period. The ground-water index tends to indicate a later beginning to droughts and of the three indices is the most conservative indicator of a drought's end. Drought timing and duration properties for the ground-water index are found to be highly influenced by the average depth to water in the well. Overall, the three indices of drought can provide three very different characterizations of drought. In particular, the results indicate that considerable caution should be exercised in drawing conclusions about hydrologic drought from the PDSI.     

Drought Resilience of the California Central Valley Surface‐Ground‐Water‐Conveyance System1

Abstract: A series of drought simulations were performed for the California Central Valley using computer applications developed by the California Department of Water Resources and historical datasets representing a range of droughts from mild to severe for time periods lasting up to 60 years. Land use, agricultural cropping patterns, and water demand were held fixed at the 2003 level and water supply was decreased by amounts ranging between 25 and 50%, representing light to severe drought types. Impacts were examined for four hydrologic subbasins, the Sacramento Basin, the San Joaquin Basin, the Tulare Basin, and the Eastside Drainage. Results suggest the greatest impacts are in the San Joaquin and Tulare Basins, regions that are heavily irrigated and are presently overdrafted in most years. Regional surface water diversions decrease by as much as 70%. Stream‐to‐aquifer flows and aquifer storage declines were proportional to drought severity. Most significant was the decline in ground water head for the severe drought cases, where results suggest that under these scenarios the water table is unlikely to recover within the 30‐year model‐simulated future. However, the overall response to such droughts is not as severe as anticipated and the Sacramento Basin may act as ground‐water insurance to sustain California during extended dry periods.     

IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATIC VARIABILITY FOR REGULATORY LOW FLOWS IN THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN,COLORADO1

ABSTRACT: The maximum concentration of a regulated substance that is allowed in a wastewater effluent usually is determined from the amount of dilution provided by the receiving water. Dilution flow is estimated from historical data by application of statistical criteria that define low flow conditions for regulatory purposes. Such use of historical data implies that the past is a good indicator of future conditions, at least for the duration of a discharge permit. Short records, however, introduce great uncertainty in the estimation of low flows because they are unlikely to capture events with recurrence frequencies of multiple years (e.g., ENSO events or droughts). We conducted an analysis of daily flows at several gages with long records in the South Platte River basin of Colorado. Low flows were calculated for successive time blocks of data (3‐, 5‐, 10‐, and 20‐years), and these were compared with low flows calculated for the entire period of record (> 70 years). In unregulated streams, time blocks of three or five years produce estimates of low flows that are highly variable and consistently greater than estimates derived from a longer period of record. Estimates of low flow from 10‐year blocks, although more stable, differ from the long term estimates by as much as a factor of two because of climate variation. In addition, the hydrographs of most streams in Colorado have been influenced by dams, diversions, or water transfers. These alterations to the natural flow regime shorten the record that is useful for analysis, but also tend to increase the calculated low flows. The presence of an upward trend in low flows caused by water use represents an unanticipated risk because it fails to incorporate societal response to severe drought conditions. Thus, climate variability poses a significant risk for water quality both directly, because it may not be represented adequately in the short periods of the hydrologic record that are typically used in permits, and indirectly, through its potential to cause altered use of water during time of scarcity.     

A Long View of Southern California Water Supply: Perfect Droughts Revisited

The impact of drought on water resources in arid and semiarid regions can be buffered by water supplies from different source regions. Simultaneous drought in all major source regions — or perfect drought — poses the most serious challenge to water management. We examine perfect droughts relevant to Southern California (SoCal) water resources with instrumental records and tree‐ring reconstructions for the Sacramento and Colorado Rivers, and SoCal. Perfect droughts have occurred five times since 1906, lasting two to three years, except for the most recent event, 2012–2015. This number and duration of perfect droughts is not unusual in the context of the past six centuries. The modern period stands out for the relatively even distribution of perfect droughts and lacks the clusters of perfect drought documented in prior centuries. In comparison, perfect droughts of the 12th Century were both longer (up to nine years) and more widespread. Perfect droughts of the 20th and 21st Centuries have occurred under different oceanic/atmospheric patterns, zonal and meridional flow, and ENSO or non‐ENSO conditions. Multidecadal coherence across the three regions exists, but it has varied over the past six centuries, resulting in irregular intervals of perfect drought. Although the causes of perfect droughts are not clear, given the long‐term natural variability along with projected changes in climate, it is reasonable to expect more frequent and longer perfect droughts in the future.     

THE TREE-RING RECORD OF SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT1

ABSTRACT: Frequent and persistent droughts exacerbate the problems caused by the inherent scarcity of water in the semiarid to arid parts of the southwestern United States. The occurrence of drought is driven by climatic variability, which for years before about the beginning of the 20th century in the Southwest must be inferred from proxy records. As part of a multidisciplinary study of the potential hydrologic impact of severe sustained drought on the Colorado River, the physical basis and limitations of tree rings as indicators of severe sustained drought are reviewed, and tree-ring data are analyzed to delineate a “worst-case” drought scenario for the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Runs analysis of a 121-site tree-ring network, 1600–1962, identifies a four-year drought in the 1660s as the longest-duration large-scale drought in the Southwest in the recent tree-ring record. Longer tree-ring records suggest a much longer and more severe drought in 1579–1598. The regression estimate of the mean annual Colorado River flow for this period is 10.95 million acre-feet, or 81 percent of the long-term mean. The estimated flows for the 1500s should be used with caution in impact studies because sample size is small and some reconstructed values are extrapolations.     

Assessing Retrospective National Water Model Streamflow with Respect to Droughts and Low Flows in the Colorado River Basin

Streamflow monitoring in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) is essential to ensure diverse needs are met, especially during periods of drought or low flow. Existing stream gage networks, however, provide a limited record of past and current streamflow. Modeled streamflow products with more complete spatial and temporal coverage (including the National Water Model [NWM]), have primarily focused on flooding, rather than sustained drought or low flow conditions. Objectives of this study are to (1) evaluate historical performance of the NWM streamflow estimates (particularly with respect to droughts and seasonal low flows) and (2) identify characteristics relevant to model inputs and suitability for future applications. Comparisons of retrospective flows from the NWM to observed flows from the United States Geological Survey stream gage network over 22 years in the CRB reveal a tendency for underestimating low flow frequency, locations with low flows, and the number of years with low flows. We found model performance to be more accurate for the Upper CRB and at sites with higher precipitation, snow percent, baseflow index, and elevations. Underestimation of low flows and variable model performance has important implications for future applications: inaccurate evaluations of historical low flows and droughts, and less reliable performance outside of specific watershed/stream conditions. This highlights characteristics on which to focus future model development efforts.     

EVALUATING RELIABILITY OF STORAGE SCHEMES WITH DENDROHYDROLOGY AND THE HURST PHENOMENON1

ABSTRACT: The mean annual flow at a damsite during a water project yield study of several decades may differ considerably from the mean flow of several hundred years. The frequency of the most severe droughts of record may be much different than apparent from the historical record as well. Dendrohydrology and the Hurst Phenomenon provide means to evaluate the validity of the study period for project reliability analysis. The most severe hydrologic drought (1928–1934) affecting the watersheds of the Sacramento River and tributaries in Northern California during the 75-year period 1906–1980 was also the worst drought in 421 years (1560–1980). In contrast, the most severe drought (1945–1951) in the Santa Ynez River watershed in Santa Barbara County, California, during the 62-year period 1918–1979 was the ninth worst drought in 443 years (1537–1979). Thus, in one case the drought risk indicated by the dendrohydrologic time series would actually be less; in the other, actual risk would be greater than perceived from the historical record. In the absence of a dendrohydrologic prehistoric time series, Hurst Phenomena would have provided clues to this outcome. Hurstian plotting of the accumulated deviation from the mean for long time series facilitates observation of the wet-dry regime of the examples and identification of characteristics that should be accounted for in water development planning.     

A PROPOSED METHOD FOR DROUGHT MONITORING1

ABSTRACT: Existing definitions of drought have focused on limited hydrologic indicators and are less effective for the purpose of drought monitoring. This study uses historical records of streamflow, precipitation, ground water, temperature, and lake elevation to define drought. Based on the method of truncation, drought durations and conditional probabilities of each indicator were estimated to define the drought severity levels, namely, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90 percent, and 95 percent. A drought monitoring method was developed by a combination of truncation level, duration, and conditional probabilities of five indicators. A six-month period of the 1988 drought in the central Ohio region was used to test the monitoring method. It was found that the developed method could effectively detect an occurrence of drought.     

Five Hundred Years of Hydrological Drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin1

Abstract: This article evaluates drought scenarios of the Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) considering multiple drought variables for the past 500 years and positions the current drought in terms of the magnitude and frequency. Drought characteristics were developed considering water‐year data of UCRB’s streamflow, and basin‐wide averages of the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) and the Palmer Z Index. Streamflow and drought indices were reconstructed for the last 500 years using a principal component regression model based on tree‐ring data. The reconstructed streamflow showed higher variability as compared with reconstructed PHDI and reconstructed Palmer Z Index. The magnitude and severity of all droughts were obtained for the last 500 years for historical and reconstructed drought variables and ranked accordingly. The frequency of the current drought was obtained by considering two different drought frequency statistical approaches and three different methods of determining the beginning and end of the drought period (annual, 5‐year moving, and ten year moving average). It was concluded that the current drought is the worst in the observed record period (1923‐2004), but 6th to 14th largest in terms of magnitude and 1st to 12th considering severity in the past 500 years. Similarly, the current drought has a return period ranging from 37 to 103 years based on how the drought period was determined. It was concluded that if the 10‐year moving average is used for defining the drought period, the current drought appears less severe in terms of magnitude and severity in the last 500 years compared with the results using 1‐ and 5‐year averages.     

COLUMBIA RIVER FLOW AND DROUGHT SINCE 17501

ABSTRACT: A network of 32 drought sensitive tree‐ring chronologies is used to reconstruct mean water year flow on the Columbia River at The Dalles, Oregon, since 1750. The reconstruction explains 30 percent of the variability in mean water year (October to September) flow, with a large portion of unexplained variance caused by underestimates of the most severe low flow events. Residual statistics from the tree‐ring reconstruction, as well as an identically specified instrumental reconstruction, exhibit positive trends over time. This finding suggests that the relationship between drought and streamflow has changed over time, supporting results from hydrologic models, which suggest that changes in land cover over the 20th Century have had measurable impacts on runoff production. Low pass filtering the flow record suggests that persistent low flows during the 1840s were probably the most severe of the past 250 years, but that flows during the 1930s were nearly as extreme. The period from 1950 to 1987 is anomalous in the context of this record for having no notable multiyear drought events. A comparison of the flow reconstruction to paleorecords of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) support a strong 20th Century link between large scale circulation and streamflow, but suggests that this link is very weak prior to 1900.     

An Application of the T‐TEL Assessment Method to Evaluate Connectivity in a Lake‐Dominated Watershed after Drought

Lakes are landscape features that influence connectivity of mass and energy by being foci for the reception, mixing, and provision of water and material. Where lake fractions are high, they influence hydrological connectivity. This behavior was exemplified in the Baker Creek watershed in Canada's Northwest Territories during a two‐year drought in which many lake levels declined below outlet elevations. This study evaluated how lakes controlled surface runoff connectivity reestablishment following the drought using a new assessment method, T‐TEL (time scales — thresholds, excesses, losses). Analysis of daily data showed that during a summer period following the drought, connectivity occurred between 0% and 41% of the time. The size of run‐of‐the‐river lakes relative to their upstream watershed area, and the upstream lake fraction, are two factors for connectivity. These terms represent a lake's ability to control the size of storage deficits relative to rainfall, and evaporation and storage losses along pathways. The connectivity magnitude–duration curve only aligned with the watershed flow duration curve during high‐water conditions, implying lakes functioned as individuals rather than as part of a perennial watercourse during much of the study. The T‐TEL method can be used to quantify consistent metrics of hydrologic connectivity that can be used for regionalization exercises and understanding hydrologic controls on material transport.