ANTIDEGRADATION WATER QUALITY CRITERIA FOR THE DELAWARE RIVER: A DISTRIBUTION-FREE STATISTICAL APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: Existing water quality for the Middle Delaware Scenic and Recreational River is significantly better than is required by current standards, leaving a potential for degradation. A method is presented for deriving candidate antidegradation water quality criteria for this segment of the Delaware River using statistical analysis of historic (ambient) water quality data. Data for 34 water quality parameters are first evaluated for data density, serial correlation, trend, seasonality, and other factors. These preliminary analyses are based on observation of data plots and application of distribution-free statistical techniques that are insensitive to outliers and are robust to relatively mild violations of basic assumptions. Data for 12 of the parameters have sufficient density for further analysis and can reasonably be modeled as independent and identically distributed over time (either seasonally or for the entire data sets). For these 12 parameters, distribution-free statistical methods are developed and used to derive intervals within which there is high confidence (usually greater than 95 percent) that the quantiles with potential use as anti-degradation criteria (the 0.85^th, 0.90^th, and 0.95^th quantiles in this study) for a particular parameter lie.     

AN ANTIDEGRADATION POLICY FOR PRESERVING SURFACE WATER QUALITY IN FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: As part of its overall system for protecting aquatic systems from unnecessary degradation, the State of Florida provides special protection for water bodies of unusual importance. Such water bodies are designated as “Outstanding Florida Waters” (OFW5). New discharges to OFWs are possible only if certain stringent criteria are met. A new point source direct discharge to an OFW is usually not allowed if it would cause any lowering of ambient water quality. A new indirect discharge (upstream from an OFW boundary) may be allowed only if it would not significantly degrade the OFW. To date, the advantages of the OFW system have clearly outweighed the disadvantages, and OFW designations are helping to protect Florida's most valuable waters from additional degradation. Florida's system could be a useful model for other jurisdictions wanting to provide special protection to special water bodies.     

ESTABLISHING STATISTICAL DESIGN CRITERIA FOR WATER QUALITY MONITORING SYSTEMS: REVIEW AND SYNTHESIS1

ABSTRACT: Regulatory water quality management has placed fairly extensive information expectations on routine, fixed-station monitoring without a corresponding emphasis being placed on the need to design monitoring systems to meet these expectations. To correct the situation there is increasing interest in developing more quantitative monitoring system design procedures which incorporate the statistical nature of sampling. In examining the development of such quantitative criteria, this paper describes the roles of statistics in a systematic approach to monitoring - initial design and routine reporting of results - and reviews the use of statistics in each. The paper emphasizes the need to tie the two together, via statistical design criteria, in order for the identified information expectations to be met in a statistically sound manner. However, the use of statistics in water quality monitoring is noted as currently being as much an art as it is a science.     

TESTING FOR TREND IN LAKE AND GROUND WATER QUALITY TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT: The detection of gradual trends in water quality time series is increasing in importance as concern grows for diffuse sources of pollution such as acid precipitation and agricultural non-point sources. A significant body of literature has arisen dealing with trend detection in water quality variables that exhibit seasonal patterns. Much of the literature has dealt with seasonality of the first moment. However, little has been mentioned about seasonality in the variance, and its effect upon the performance of trend detection techniques. In this paper, eight methods of trend detection that arise from both the statistical literature as well as the water quality literature have been compared by means of a simulation study. Varying degrees of seasonality in both the variances and the means have been introduced into the artificial data, and the performances of these procedures are analyzed. Since the focus is on lake and ground water quality monitoring, quarterly sampling and short to moderate record lengths are examined.     

WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT: THE CASE FOR RIVER BASIN AUTHORITIES1

ABSTRACT: There is a lamentable absence of comprehensive planning in the current cursade to improve water quality. A serious shortcoming is the lack of evaluation of the effects of waste water treatment upon environmental quality. At some point in time the public may ask what they have obtained for their money. The nature of pollution in a river basin demands a coordinated attack against it. Engineering and economic criteria suggest that a properly empowered river basin authority would be the logical organization to plan and operate a water quality management system. Several forms of such authorities have operated effectively and efficiently for many years in the United States and other industrialized countries. Examples of successful river basin authorities and their advantages and methods of operation are discussed.     

EVALUATING THE OPTIONS FOR WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: The agricultural revolution occurred because the un-managed environment was not providing food in either the quantity or quality that society desired. The “environmental revolution” is developing because the unmanaged environment is clearly not capable of assimilating societal wastes without being seriously degraded. Effective environmental management will require regional and site-specific modification of general principles and practices that can be used at a national or international level. An environmental management system can be operated in the same manner as any industrial quality control system with three basic components: (a) sensors at appropriate locations, (b) rapid generation and feedback of information, and (c) a quality control group capable of taking immediate effective action when system performance is outside predetermined boundary conditions. This discussion focuses primarily on three areas: (a) management options available to regulate intrusion of societal wastes into natural systems, (b) types of methods available for predicting and validating effects on natural systems, and (c) modifications of present legislation that would permit the most flexibility in selecting from the various management options. Also considered are multispecies toxicity tests using species with cosmopolitan distribution in test systems with a high degree of environmental realism. Among the many values of such tests is the ability to exchange information from all parts of the world effectively because the test organisms are not restricted to a particular geographic region.     

REAPPRAISAL OF WATER SUPPLY RESOURCES IN DELAWARE RIVER BASIN USING SYNTHETIC HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT The 60's drought (1961 1966) which hit the Northeastern United States, had its center over the Delaware River Basin and caused water supply shortages to New York City, Philadelphia, and many other towns and industries in the Basin. Until this event occurred, the existing water supply sources and those planned for the future had been considered adequate, as they were designed for the worst drought of record (usually the 1930-31 drought). In view of this “change in hydrology,” the Delaware River Basin Commission authorized a study (DRBC Resolution 67-4) to re-evaluate the adequacy of existing and planned water supply sources of the Delaware River Basin and its Service Area (New York City and northern New Jersey). Synthetic hydrology is a tool which can be used to overcome many of the limitations of the traditional approach. By analyzing generated streamflow traces in this study, it has been determined that there is a definite relationship between the accumulated rainfall deficiency during the drought and the return periods associated with various durations of runoff in the drought. This indicated that generated traces can be used to standardize the hydrology over an area where the intensity of drought varied. This represented an important facet in the study, because it provided a means to equalize the effects of this drought over the study area, and gave the Delaware River Basin Commission more information so that it could better plan and manage its water resources equitably, not only for the people within the Basin, but for the New York City and northern New Jersey areas as well. Synthetic hydrology was used to determine yield-probability relationships for 50-year periods, and storage-yield-frequency relationships for existing and planned water-supply reservoirs. It was also used to determine yield-probability relationships for reservoir systems within the Basin. In the study, it was determined that monthly streamflow traces and uniform draft rates could be used in yield analysis because of the magnitude of the reservoirs and because seasonal variations of draft rate are small in the study area. Although it was found that with the streamflow generating models (first order Markov) in common use today, it is not possible to definitely determine the actual frequency of a very severe historic drought, it is possible to place a drought in perspective by using synthetic hydrology. The study showed that it is a useful tool in determining water availability over a basin and is useful in studying water management problems such as interbasin transfers, and reservoir systems operations.     

MULTIVARIATE NONPARAMETRIC TESTS FOR TREND IN WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: National and state fixed station stream quality monitoring networks have now been in existence for over ten years. The resulting data bases provide opportunities and challenges for statistical trend assessment. Although nonparametric tests have been developed that are well suited to such problems, the interpretation of variations in trend significance between seasons and variables remains a problem. One recently developed test is based on the sum of Mann-Kendall statistics over seasons or variables, with the test statistic variance computed as the sum of the covariances of the individual Mann-Kendall statistics. In this method, up- and downtrends can cancel, giving an overall indication of no trend. A related test which is sensitive to trend regardless of direction has been shown to behave poorly for typical stream quality record lengths. An alternative formulation which is sensitive to up- and downtrends and has power approaching that of the covariance sum method, is described. In addition, a variation of a contrast test for discriminating trend directions and magnitudes among variables or seasons where correlation between seasons or variables is present is described, and tests of its performance reported.     

A STATISTICAL MODEL FOR SMALL LAKE WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Phosphorus loading tolerances of small lakes are analyzed by means of a statistical model of lake eutrophication based upon the work of Vollenweider and Dillon. Using a sample of 195 midwestern and eastern U. S. lakes, it was found that Vollenweider and Dillon's method of predicting the trophic status of relatively deep, slow-flushing lakes can be applied to shallower lakes with much shorter retention times. The statistical model used to replicate the results of Vollenweider and Dillon is stated in detail, for convenience of application to small lake water quality management problems. The model extends the Vollenweider and Dillon results by associating each alternative phosphorous loading with a probability that a given lake can achieve or maintain noneutrophis status. It is applicable to lakes for which only minimal data are available. The major policy conclusion is that the highly variable tolerance for phosphorus loading must be considered in legislating efficient effluent limitations. The paper concludes with a comparison to a recent contribution employing a similar approach.     

A RESERVOIR OPERATING MODEL WITH INORGANIC QUALITY CONSTRAINTS FOR THE TRUCKEE RIVER1

ABSTRACT: This study investigated low flow augmentation as a means of meeting inorganic water quality standards for the Truckee River at the California-Nevada state line. A digital inorganic water quality model was combined with a deterministic dynamic reservoir operating model in an iterative process which allowed the optimization of releases subject to selected inorganic water quality constraints as well as downstream demands. Results from model runs with varied flow and river loading data indicate that flow augmentation may be a feasible and relatively inexpensive way of meeting standards for this system except in time of severe drought.     

MULTIPLE CRITERIA ANALYSIS FOR WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT IN THE NITRA BASIN1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the implementation of one element of a decision support system (DSS) for regional water quality management, applied to the Nitra River Basin in Slovakia. A model-based, aspiration-led methodology for multicriteria decision support has been used for the study. Several reusable, modular software tools have been developed and implemented: a problem-specific generator to produce the core part of the mathematical programming model, tools for the generation and interactive modification of multicriteria problems, and a solver for the resulting mixed-integer optimization problem. Provided in the paper are the following: a complete formulation of the mathematical model (including the imbedded water quality model), a summary of the aspiration-reservation-led multiple criteria optimization approach applied to decision support, and an overview of results that illustrate the applied approach and provide some interesting insights to the case study.     

MAXIMUM CONTAMINANT LEVELS FOR TOXIC SUBSTANCES IN WATER: A STATISTICAL APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: A method to establish maximum contaminant levels or nondegradation standards for toxic substances in water is described. The method described is based on statistical outlier procedures which distinguish ubiquitous background levels of toxic substances from those concentrations significantly greater than background. Because this approach utilizes environmental data, it can calculate an interim maximum contaminant level which can help protect the public until sufficient health effects data are available to establish human health based maximum contaminant levels.     

WATER QUALITY ANALYSIS OF THE HALIFAX RIVER,FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: An application of the receiving water block of the EPA Storm Water management Model (SWMM) is presented to quantify water quality impacts and evaluated control alternatives for a 208 areawide waste water management plan in Volusia Country, Florida. The water quality impact analyses were conducted for dry-and wet-weather conditions to simulate dissolved oxygen (DO), chlorides, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) in the Halifax Rivers, Florida, a 40-kilometer-long tidal estuary located on the Atlantic coast of Florida near Daytona Beach. Dry-weather analysis was performed using conventional 7-day, 10-year low flow conditions to determine a set of unit transfer coefficients which estimate the pollutant concentration transferred to any point in the estuary from a constant unit discharge of pollutants at the existing waste water treatment plant outfall locations. Wet-weather analysis was performed by continuous simulation of a typical three-month summer wet season in Florida. Three-month cumulative duration curves of DO, TN and TP concentrations were constructed to estimate the relative value of controlling urban runoff of waste water treatment plant effluent on the Halifax River. The three-month continuous simulation indicated that the greatest change in DO, TN, and TP duration curves is possible by abatement of waste water treatment plant pollution.     

A VERIFICATION OF THE QUAL-1 WATER QUALITY MODEL FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the verification of the QUAL-1 mass transport model for the lower Mississippi River between St. Francisville and Point a la Hache using dye studies conducted by the U. S. Geological Survey. QUAL-1 is a one-dimensional steady-state model for rivers and is capable of predicting longitudinal profiles of soluble materials entering rivers from point sources. Both conservative and nonconservative parameters of water quality can be considered. The major problems surmounted were the determination of a diffusion coefficient and the use of transient data to verify a steady state model.     

WATER QUALITY MODELING IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE CHOWAN RIVER1

ABSTRACT: The Chowan River system consists of three rivers in southeast Virginia that form two confluences before flowing into Albermarle Sound in North Carolina. A computer program was written to simulate flows through the river system to determine flow rates, velocities, and depths. The output of the flow program was input into a second program that calculated the concentrations of BOD₅, COD, DO, and four nitrogen parameters (organic, ammonia, nitrite-nitrate and algal-N). Measured field data were used to calibrate the model. The effect of reducing the concentration of nutrients from overland runoff on algal concentrations at the mouth of the river was studied. The program was also run to simulate the water quality of the watershed in a primitive condition, in which the watershed was assumed to consist only of forests. The results of the computer program indicate that the major changes in the water quality of the river are simulated satisfactorily. The program can be used to assess the impact of any management scheme to improve water quality.     

SELECTING TREND TESTS FOR WATER QUALITY SERIES WITH SERIAL CORRELATION AND MISSING VALUES1

ABSTRACT: The use of nonparametric tests for monotonic trend has flourished in recent years to support routine water quality data analyses. The validity of an assumption of independent, identically distributed error terms is an important concern in selecting the appropriate nonparametric test, as is the presence of missing values. Decision rules are needed for choosing between alternative tests and for deciding whether and how to pre-process data before trend testing. Several data pre-processing procedures in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall tau and the Seasonal Kendall test (with and without serial correlation correction) are evaluated using synthetic time series with generated serial correlation and missing data. A composite test (pre-testing for serial correlation followed by one of two trend tests) is evaluated and was found to perform satisfactorily.     

DEVELOPMENT OF A NONDEGRAIATION POLICY FOR HIGH QUALITY WATERS1

ABSTRACT: The development of a nondegradation policy for high quality waters is a complex and often controversial process. This paper discusses the development of a nondegradation policy for two components of the National Wild and Scenic Rivers System. Water quality in these reaches of the Delaware River is threatened by rapid growth and development and the cumulative impacts from numerous wastewater discharges and nonpoint sources of pollution. The Delaware River Basin Commission, with assistance from its member states and the National Park Service, conducted a highly public, six-year planning process to develop a nondegradation policy that protected existing water quality without impinging upon local and state economic development objectives. The resulting non-degradation policy includes such features as numeric definitions of existing water quality and measurable change; stringent point source requirements; nonpoint source requirements including watershed planning requirements; and other water quality management policies.     

APPLICABILITY OF THE t-TEST FOR DETECTING TRENDS IN WATER QUALITY VARIABLES1

ABSTRACT: A major concern in managing water resources is whether or not water quality variables have changed over time or space. The two-sample Student's t-test is probably the most commonly used statistical test for this purpose. Given that the underlying assumptions of the test may often be violated by water quality variables, a major concern regarding applicability of the test arises. This paper reviews and synthesizes available information in order to examine the effects of non-normality, unequal variances, serial dependence, and seasonality on the performance of the two-sample t-test. The results suggest the t-test is robust for non-normal distributions if the distributions have the same shape (either symmetric or skewed) and sample sizes are equal. The t-test is also robust for unequal variances if the sample sizes are equal. The t-test appears not to be robust when: 1) samples come from two distributions of different shape, 2) samples have unequal variances and unequal sample sizes, 3) serial dependence in observations is present, or 4) seasonal changes, in concentration are present and not removed.     

A MODELLING METHOD FOR EVALUATING WATER QUALITY POLICIES IN NONSERIAL RIVER SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a modelling method which simplifies the evaluation of water quality policies for nonserial (branching) river systems. The method introduces dummy facilities at the junctions of the major tributary branches with the mainstream as replacements for the facilities and activities on the tributaries. The cost functions for the dummy facilities and the DO and BOD concentrations at the junctions as determined for each tributary are introduced into the mainstream serial system model which is then solved for the optimal values of the mainstream treatment plant efficiencies, the dummy facility effeciencies, and the tributary system DO and BOD concentrations using nonlinear programming. Given the optimum values for the dummy facility efficiencies and the values for the tributary system DO and BOD concentrations, the optimum values for the tributary treatment plant efficiencies are found using nonlinear programming. The method is applied to a river system with a mainstream and one major tributary which contain industrial and municipal organic and thermal polluters and their associated wastewater treatment plants.