Adaptation of maize to climate change impacts in Iran

Adaptation is a key factor for reducing the future vulnerability of climate change impacts on crop production. The objectives of this study were to simulate the climate change effects on growth and grain yield of maize (Zea mays L.) and to evaluate the possibilities of employing various cultivar of maize in three classes (long, medium and short maturity) as an adaptation option for mitigating the climate change impacts on maize production in Khorasan Razavi province of Iran. For this purpose, we employed two types of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). Daily climatic parameters as one stochastic growing season for each projection period were generated by Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS?WG). Also, crop growth under projected climate conditions was simulated based on the Cropping System Model (CSM)-CERES-Maize. LARS-WG had appropriate prediction for climatic parameters. The predicted results showed that the day to anthesis (DTA) and anthesis period (AP) of various cultivars of maize were shortened in response to climate change impacts in all scenarios and GCMs models; ranging between 0.5 % to 17.5 % for DTA and 5 % to 33 % for AP. The simulated grain yields of different cultivars was gradually decreased across all the scenarios by 6.4 % to 42.15 % during the future 100 years compared to the present climate conditions. The short and medium season cultivars were faced with the lowest and highest reduction of the traits, respectively. It means that for the short maturing cultivars, the impacts of high temperature stress could be much less compared with medium and long maturity cultivars. Based on our findings, it can be concluded that cultivation of early maturing cultivars of maize can be considered as the effective approach to mitigate the adverse effects of climate.     

Vulnerability of Indian mustard (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Brassica juncea</Emphasis> (L.) Czernj. Cosson) to climate variability and future adaptation strategies

A simulation study has been carried out using the InfoCrop mustard model to assess the impact of climate change and adaptation gains and to delineate the vulnerable regions for mustard (Brassica juncea (L.) Czernj. Cosson) production in India. On an all India basis, climate change is projected to reduce mustard grain yield by ～2 % in 2020 (2010–2039), ～7.9 % in 2050 (2040–2069) and ～15 % in 2080 (2070–2099) climate scenarios of MIROC3.2.HI (a global climate model) and Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies (PRECIS, a regional climate model) models, if no adaptation is followed. However, spatiotemporal variations exist for the magnitude of impacts. Yield is projected to reduce in regions with current mean seasonal temperature regimes above 25/10 °C during crop growth. Adapting to climate change through a combination of improved input efficiency, additional fertilizers and adjusting the sowing time of current varieties can increase yield by ～17 %. With improved varieties, yield can be enhanced by ～25 % in 2020 climate scenario. But, projected benefits may reduce thereafter. Development of short-duration varieties and improved crop husbandry becomes essential for sustaining mustard yield in future climates. As climatically suitable period for mustard cultivation may reduce in future, short-duration (<130 days) cultivars with 63 % pod filling period will become more adaptable. There is a need to look beyond the suggested adaptation strategy to minimize the yield reduction in net vulnerable regions.     

Adaptation for crop agriculture to climate change in Cameroon: Turning on the heat

The Cameroonian agricultural sector, a critical part of the local ecosystem, is potentially vulnerable to climate change raising concerns about food security in the country’s future. Adaptations policies may be able to mitigate some of this vulnerability. This article investigates and addresses the issue of selected adaptation options within the context of Cameroonian food production. A methodology is applied where transient diagnostics of two atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, the NASA/Goddard Institute GISS and the British HadCM3, are coupled to a cropping system simulation model (CropSyst) to simulate current and future (2020, 2080) crop yields for selected key crops (bambara nut, groundnut, maize, sorghum, and soybean) in eight agricultural regions of Cameroon. Our results show that for the future, substantial yield increases are estimated for bambara groundnut, soybean and groundnut, while little or no change or even decreases for maize and sorghum yields, varying according to the climate scenario and the agricultural region investigated. Taking the “no regrets” principle into consideration, we explore the advantages of specific adaptation strategies specifically for three crops viz. maize, sorghum and bambara groundnut, under GISS A2 and B2 marker scenarios only. Changing sowing dates may be ineffective in counteracting adverse climatic effects because of the narrow rainfall band that strictly determines the timing of farm operations in Cameroon. In contrast, the possibility of developing later maturing new cultivars proved to be extremely effective in offsetting adverse impacts, giving the highest increases in productivity under different scenario projections without management changes. For example, under climate change scenario GISS A2 2080, a 14.6% reduction in maize yield was converted to a 32.1% increase; a 39.9% decrease in sorghum yield was converted to a 17.6% increase, and for bambara groundnut (an under-researched and underutilised African legume), yields were almost trebled (37.1% increase above that for sowing date alone (12.9%)) due to increase length of growing period and the positive effects of higher CO₂ concentrations. These results may better inform wider studies and development strategies on sustainable agriculture in the area by providing an indication as to the potential direction in shifts in production capabilities. Our approach highlights the benefit of using models as tools to investigate potential climate change impacts, where results can supplement existing knowledge. The results provide useful guidance and motivation to public authorities and development agencies interested in food security issues in Cameroon and elsewhere.     

Impact and adaptation opportunities for European agriculture in response to climatic change and variability

Climate change, involving changes in mean climate and climatic variability, is expected to severely affect agriculture and there is a need to assess its impact in order to define the appropriate adaptation strategies to cope with. In this paper, we projected a scenario of European agriculture in a +2°C (above pre-industrial levels) world in order to assess the potential effect of climatic change and variability and to test the effectiveness of different adaptation options. For this purpose, the outputs of HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) were empirically downscaled for current climate (1975–2005) and a future period (2030–2060), to feed a process-based crop simulation model, in order to quantify the impact of a changing climate on agriculture emphasising the impact due to changes in the frequency of extreme events (heat waves and drought). The same climatic dataset was used to compare the effectiveness of different adaptations to a warmer climate strategies including advanced or delayed sowing time, shorter or longer cycle cultivar and irrigation. The results indicated that both changes in mean climate and climate variability affected crop growth resulting in different crop fitting capacity to cope with climate change. This capacity mainly depended on the crop type and the geographical area across Europe. A +2°C scenario had a higher impact on crops cultivated over the Mediterranean basin than on those cultivated in central and northern Europe as a consequence of drier and hotter conditions. In contrast, crops cultivated in Northern Europe generally exhibited higher than current yields, as a consequence of wetter conditions, and temperatures closer to the optimum growing conditions. Simple, no-cost adaptation options such as advancement of sowing dates or the use of longer cycle varieties may be implemented to tackle the expected yield loss in southern Europe as well as to exploit possible advantages in northern regions.     

Adaptation strategies to combat climate change effect on rice and mustard in Eastern India

The negative impact of climate change on crop production is alarming as the demand for food is expected to increase in coming years, at a rate of about 2 percent a year. Wet season rice (Oryza sativa) followed by mustard (Brassica juncea) is one of the prominent cropping sequences in Eastern India. Descreases in their productivity due to climate change will not only hamper the regional food security but also affect the global economy. Considering the fact, the present study aims to assess the impact of climate change on productivity of wet-season rice and mustard and to evaluate the effectiveness of agronomic adjustment as adaptation options. Crop growth simulation model (CGSM) is a very effective tool to predict the growth and yield of a crop. One CGSM, namely InfoCrop (Generic Crop Model), was calibrated and validated for the said crops for West Bengal State, Eastern India. After validation, the model was used to predict the yield under elevated thermal condition (1 and 3 °C rise over normal temperature). Moreover, the future weather situation as predicted by PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) model was used as weather input of the CGSM and the yield was predicted for ten selected locations of West Bengal for the year 2025 and 2050. It was observed that the average yield reduction of the wet-season rice would be in the tune of about 20.0 % for 2025 and 27.8 % for 2050. The mustard yield of West Bengal may be reduced by 20.0 to 33.9 % for the year 2025 and up to 40 % for 2050. It was concluded that the negative impact of climate change on mustard grown in winter season will be more pronounced compared to wet-season rice. Adjustment of sowing time will be the simplest and effective adaptation option for both rice and mustard. Increased rate of nutrient application can sustain the rice yield under future climate. The older seedling at the time of transplanting of wet-season rice and increased seed rate of mustard were proved less effective.     

Strategic adaptation of nitrogen management for El Niño Southern Oscillation-induced winter wheat system

The rainfall anomaly (RA) associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has various unwanted impacts on agricultural system globally. The loss of inorganic nitrogen (N) depending on extreme wet or dry conditions is a major concern. The main objective of this study was to adapt site-specific N strategies to mitigate the effects of ENSO on yields of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.; WW) system. After thorough calibration and evaluation, Decision Support Systems for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT, version 4.5) model suite was adapted. Seasonal analysis was used to compare the variability in simulated leached-N, N uptake, and WW yields under long-term historical real-weather conditions. The site X climate interactions and impacts of weather factors on WW yields were assessed across 60 growing seasons in three phases of ENSO: El Niño (EN), La Niña (LN), and neutral (NT). Based on RA, the simulated yields were lower during LN than EN (11 %) and NT (12 %) on coastal sandy-loam soils and higher during LN than EN (13 %) and NT (8 %) on heavy silt loam soils at valley. N strategy with basal of 22 kg N ha^?1?+?a split of 112 kg N ha^?1 at Feekes (F) 4 stage of WW was adapted for maximum yield and minimum N leaching during LN at valley and NT at coastal sites. However, basal of 22 kg N ha^?1?+?two equal splits of 56 kg N ha^?1 at both F4 and F6 was found as the most adaptable N strategy during both EN and NT phases at valley and EN and LN at coastal sites.     

Gaps in the capacity of modern forage crops to adapt to the changing climate in northern Europe

The within-species diversity in response to weather and the gaps in the response diversity in the modern set of forage crop cultivars were determined using an approach that assessed the adaptive capacity under global climate change. The annual dry matter (DM) yields were recorded in multi-location MTT (Maa- ja elintarviketalouden tutkimuskeskus) Agrifood Research Official Variety Trials in Finland for modern forage crop cultivars from 2000 to 2012, as a response to agroclimatic variables critical to yield based on the year-round weather data. The effect and interaction of cultivars and agroclimatic variables were analysed using mixed model. The relatively low adaptive capacity of timothy (Phleum pratense L.) and meadow fescue (Festuca pratensis Huds.) indicates that diversification of the breeding material is warranted, particularly for resistance to high temperatures during primary growth and to high temperature sum 7 days after the first cut. All red clover cultivars (Trifolium pratense L.) suffered from both low and high accumulation of warm winter temperatures. Except for the red clover cultivars, cold stress during winter and lack of warm winter temperatures consistently reduced the yields of all species and cultivars. All tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea Schreb.) cultivars suffered from low precipitation during the fall hardening period. Although the set of festulolium (Festulolium pabulare) cultivars was also sensitive to low precipitation during the fall, festulolium was a good example of enhanced capacity to adapt to climate change with high response diversity because the cultivar germplasm base was diversified. Foreign origin in a cultivar pool was apparently not sufficient or necessary to ensure added value for a diversity of responses to climate change. Similar analyses to those used in this study, applied as practical tools for breeders, farmers and public actors, are important to secure the adaptive capacity of crops worldwide under global climate change.     

Assessing high-impact spots of climate change: spatial yield simulations with Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model

Drybeans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) are an important subsistence crop in Central America. Future climate change may threaten drybean production and jeopardize smallholder farmers’ food security. We estimated yield changes in drybeans due to changing climate in these countries using downscaled data from global circulation models (GCMs) in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We generated daily weather data, which we used in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) drybean submodel. We compared different cultivars, soils, and fertilizer options in three planting seasons. We analyzed the simulated yields to spatially classify high-impact spots of climate change across the four countries. The results show a corridor of reduced yields from Lake Nicaragua to central Honduras (10–38 % decrease). Yields increased in the Guatemalan highlands, towards the Atlantic coast, and in southern Nicaragua (10–41 % increase). Some farmers will be able to adapt to climate change, but others will have to change crops, which will require external support. Research institutions will need to devise technologies that allow farmers to adapt and provide policy makers with feasible strategies to implement them.     

Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate climate scenarios for yam production in the sub-humid savannah zone of West Africa

Globally, yam (Dioscorea spp.) is the fifth most important root crop after sweet potatoes (Ipomoea batatas L.) and the second most important crop in Africa in terms of production after cassava (Manihot esculenta L.) and has long been vital to food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Climate change is expected to have its most severe impact on crops in food insecure regions, yet very little is known about impact of climate change on yam productivity. Therefore, we try estimating the effect of climate change on the yam (variety: Florido) yield and evaluating different adaptation strategies to mitigate its effect. Three regional climate models REgional MOdel (REMO), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Regional Climate Model (SMHIRCA), and Hadley Regional Model (HADRM3P) were coupled to a crop growth simulation model namely Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) version 3060 to simulate current and future yam yields in the Upper Ouémé basin (Benin Republic). For the future, substantial yield decreases were estimated varying according to the climate scenario. We explored the advantages of specific adaptation strategies suggesting that changing sowing date may be ineffective in counteracting adverse climatic effects. Late maturing cultivars could be effective in offsetting the adverse impacts. Whereas, by coupling irrigation and fertilizer application with late maturing cultivars, highest increase in the yam productivity could be realized which accounted up to 49 % depending upon the projection of the scenarios analyzed.     

1961—2015年西南区域单季稻生长季气候年型及其生产潜力分析

了解气候变化背景下农作物气候年型以及不同气候年型下作物的生产潜力,对实现农业的可持续发展具有重要意义。基于1961—2015年西南区域单季稻种植区316个气象台站的逐日气象资料和单季稻生产资料,利用异常度概念分析了单季稻生长季的10种气候年型,解析了不同气候年型下单季稻的气候生产潜力,并分析气候变化对单季稻生长季气候年型及生产潜力的影响。结果表明：（1）近55年来西南区域单季稻生长季正常年型发生频次最高,平均21.5次,其次是少雨年型和多雨年型。从空间分布来看,正常年型多出现在云南南部和西北部、四川攀西和四川盆地南部的部分地区,少雨和多雨年型多出现在四川盆地大部和其他省市的部分地区,高温年型多出现在四川攀西地区、云南和贵州的个别地区,低温和寡照年型的空间差异不明显。（2）1961—2015年,西南区域单季稻气候生产潜力平均为7065.6 kg/hm²。与正常年相比,多雨年型气候生产潜力偏高超过10%,少雨年型偏低超过14%,降水是影响单季稻气候生产潜力的最主要因子。（3）气候变暖对西南区域单季稻生长季气候年型变化的影响最为显著。与1961—1990年相比,1991—2015年暖年增加,冷年减少。近55年来西南各省市单季稻气候生产潜力均呈下降趋势,1990年代以来暖年的增加有利于气候生产潜力的提高,而少雨和寡照年的增加是气候生产潜力总体下降的主要原因。     

Economic feasibility of adapting crop enterprises to future climate change: a case study of flexible scheduling and irrigation for representative farms in Flathead Valley,Montana, USA

Future climate change directly impacts crop agriculture by altering temperature and precipitation regimes, crop yields, crop enterprise net returns, and net farm income. Most previous studies assess the potential impacts of agricultural adaptation to climate change on crop yields. This study attempts to evaluate the potential impacts of crop producers’ adaptation to future climate change on crop yield, crop enterprise net returns, and net farm income in Flathead Valley, Montana, USA. Crop enterprises refer to the combinations of inputs (e.g., land, labor, and capital) and field operations used to produce a crop. Two crop enterprise adaptations are evaluated: flexible scheduling of field operations; and crop irrigation. All crop yields are simulated using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. Net farm income is assessed for small and large representative farms and two soils in the study area. Results show that average crop yields in the future period (2006–2050) without adaptation are between 7% and 48% lower than in the historical period (1960–2005). Flexible scheduling of the operations used in crop enterprises does not appear to be an economically efficient form of crop enterprise adaptation because it does not improve crop yields and crop enterprise net returns in the future period. With irrigation, crop yields are generally higher for all crop enterprises and crop enterprise net returns increase for the canola and alfalfa enterprises but decrease for all other assessed crop enterprises relative to no adaptation. Overall, average crop enterprise net return in the future period is 45% lower with than without irrigation. Net farm income decreases for both the large and small representative farms with both flexible scheduling and irrigation. Results indicate that flexible scheduling and irrigation adaptation are unlikely to reduce the potential adverse economic impacts of climate change on crop producers in Montana’s Flathead Valley.     

Climate change impact, mitigation and adaptation strategies for agricultural and water resources, in Ganga Plain (India)

Agriculture consumes more than two-thirds of global fresh water out of which 90 % is used by developing countries. Freshwater consumption worldwide is expected to rise another 25 %by 2030 due to increase in population from 6.6 billion currently to about 8 billion by 2030 and over 9 billion by 2050. Worldwide climate change and variability are affecting water resources and agricultural production and in India Ganga Plain region is one of them. Hydroclimatic changes are very prominent in all the regions of Ganga Plain. Climate change and variability impacts are further drying the semi-arid areas and may cause serious problem of water and food scarcity for about 250 million people of the area. About 80 million ha out of total 141 million ha net cultivated area of India is rainfed, which contributes approximately 44 % of total food production has been severely affected by climate change. Further changing climatic conditions are causing prominent hydrological variations like change in drainage density, river morphology (tectonic control) & geometry, water quality and precipitation. Majority of the river channels seen today in the Ganga Plain has migrated from their historic positions. Large scale changes in land use and land cover pattern, cropping pattern, drainage pattern and over exploitation of water resources are modifying the hydrological cycle in Ganga basin. The frequency of floods and drought and its intensity has increased manifold. Ganga Plain rivers has changed their course with time and the regional hydrological conditions shows full control over the rates and processes by which environments geomorphically evolve. Approximately 47 % of total irrigated area of the country is located in Ganga Plain, which is severely affected by changing climatic conditions. In long run climate change will affect the quantity and quality of the crops and the crop yield is going to be down. This will increase the already high food inflation in the country. The warmer atmospheric temperatures and drought conditions will increase soil salinization, desertification and drying-up of aquifer, while flooding conditions will escalate soil erosion, soil degradation and sedimentation. The aim of this study is to understand the impact of different hydrological changes due to climatic conditions and come up with easily and economically feasible solutions effective in addressing the problem of water and food scarcity in future.     

Adaptation strategies for maize cultivation under climate change in Iran: irrigation and planting date management

Climate change is affecting the productivity of crops and their regional distribution. Strategies to enhance local adaptation capacity are needed to mitigate climate change impacts and to maintain regional stability of food production. The objectives of this study were to simulate the climate change effects on phenological stages, Leaf Area Index (LAI), biomass and grain yield of maize (Zea mays L.) in the future and to explore the possibilities of employing irrigation water and planting dates as adaptation strategies to decrease the climate change impacts on maize production in Khorasan Razavi province, Iran. For this purpose, we employed two types of General Circulation Models ((United Kingdom Met. Office Hadley Center: HadCM3) and (Institute Pierre Simon Laplace: IPCM4)) and three scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was used to produce daily climatic parameters as one stochastic growing season for each projection period. Also, crop growth under projected climate conditions was simulated based on the Cropping System Model (CSM)-CERES-Maize. The results of model evaluation showed that LARS-WG had appropriate prediction for climatic parameters. Time period from cultivation until anthesis and maturity were reduced in majority of scenarios as affected by climate change. The results indicated that the grain yield of maize may be reduced (11 % to 38 %) as affected by climate change based on common planting date in baseline and changed (?61 % to 48 %) in response to different irrigation regimes in the future climate change, under all scenarios and times. In general, earlier planting date (1 May) and decreasing irrigation intervals in the anthesis stage (11 applications) caused higher yield compared with other planting dates due to adaption to high temperature. Based on our findings, it seems that management of irrigation water and planting dates can be beneficial for adaptation of maize to climate change in this region.     

Insect damage influences heat and water stress resistance gene expression in field-grown popcorn: implications in developing crop varieties adapted to climate change

Warming climatic conditions can pose problems for crop production in many parts of the world, but detailed information on the expression of heat and drought stress resistance genes of potentially affected crop plants is lacking. This information is important to have in order to most efficiently guide the breeding of crops that are adapted to new climatic conditions. A maize (Zea mays) gene microarray, a method used worldwide to evaluate the expression of tens of thousands of genes at once, was used to investigate changes in expression of genes involved in resistance to heat and water stress in milk stage popcorn kernels from undamaged and insect-damaged ears. Popcorn is a form of maize that is more susceptible to heat and drought stress due to its smaller root system. In years of heat and drought stress, expression of many heat shock- and senescence-related proteins increased compared to the year when weather was closer to average conditions, but the expression of many genes related to drought stress resistance decreased in years of weather stress. A different complex of heat shock protein and water stress resistance protein genes had higher expression in kernels from undamaged compared to insect-damaged ears in years of heat and drought stress. These results indicate that the interaction of biotic components, such as insects, are important to consider in developing crop lines with adaptation to stress as this will help identify additional genes and their regulatory components involved in heat and drought stress resistance that might otherwise be overlooked, and will likely be an important strategy for the most effective development of climate stress-tolerant crops globally.     

Benefits of the development and dissemination of climate-smart rice: <Emphasis Type="Italic">ex ante</Emphasis> impact assessment of drought-tolerant rice in South Asia

In the era of climate change, rice (Oryza sativa L.) production is increasingly affected by the rising frequency and severity of various abiotic stresses such as flood and drought. In some cases, 100 % yield loss can be attributed solely to these stresses. Hence, there is an urgent need to develop climate-smart rice that is more resilient to abiotic stresses. As the development and dissemination of climate-smart rice varieties entail costs, this article examines the net economic benefits of developing and disseminating successful drought-tolerant rice in South Asia where rice area prone to drought far outweighs area with other abiotic stresses. Drought causes major rice yield losses not only in South Asia but also in other parts of Asia and Africa. Using the ORYZA2000 (ORYZA model series were developed at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) in the early 1990s in collaboration with Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR) and 16 national agricultural research and extension systems in Asia. ORYZA2000 is an update and integration of earlier versions of the ORYZA model. More detailed documentation of ORYZA2000 can be found in (http://books.irri.org/9712201716_content.pdf)) crop growth simulation model, we demonstrate that a successful drought-tolerant rice variety can provide yield gains in South Asia of a minimum of 1.71 % to a maximum of 8.96 % when there is no change in the climate and under different climate scenarios projected by Canadian General Circulation Models (CGCMs). Moreover, our economic analysis shows that the economic benefits from the successful development and dissemination of droughttolerant rice more than outweigh the research investments needed to develop a variety. Although the research, development, and dissemination of a climate-smart drought-tolerant rice variety in the South require USD 84 million, our economic model indicates that rice production will be higher by a minimum of 6 million tons worth USD 3.3 billion, and rice prices will be lower by a minimum of USD 72 per ton when a drought-tolerant variety is adopted in South Asia (as compared to the case without this new variety). This can lead to improved rice food security and better nutritional outcomes for the poor.     

气候变化背景下贵州省农作物生长期干旱时空变化规律

以干旱高发区贵州省为研究对象,利用贵州省19个站点1960—2013年气象日值资料,考虑气象干旱累积效应及当地秋收农作物生长时期需水要求,验证了秋收作物生育期内标准降水蒸散指数（Sep-SPEI-6）与粮食减产量之间的相关性。基于Sep-SPEI-6指数采用Mann-Kendall法、滑动t检验、Morlet小波周期分析以及Hurst指数等方法分析了贵州省干旱时空变化特征。结果表明：① Sep-SPEI-6与贵州省及各州、市粮食减产量呈极显著负相关性。② 在1991、2001年前后贵州省气候发生了突变。③ 与第一阶段（1960—1991年）相比,第二阶段（1992—2001年）干旱发生频率和影响范围均减少了10.59%;较第二阶段,第三阶段（2002—2013年）分别增加了23.67%和24.74%;与前两阶段相比,第三阶段的干旱历时与强度增加显著。④ Sep-SPEI-6时间序列存在明显的周期性振荡特征,以22 a为第1主周期。⑤ 各站点Sep-SPEI-6的Hurst数值均大于0.5,说明其变化具有较好的持续性。⑥ 干旱易发区呈现由东向西的转移趋势。⑦ 农作物生长期内日降水>1 mm天数和日照总时数是影响农作物生长期干旱的主要气象因素。研究成果为贵州省抗旱减灾措施的制定提供了理论依据。     

黑龙江省气候变化对粮食生产的影响

收集1986~2000年黑龙江省79个县市农业生产资料和30个气象台站逐日气温、降水资料,应用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数方法将粮食产量分解为气候产量和经济产量,然后用EOF方法分析了粮食产量、气候影响程度指数、≥10℃积温、生长季降水的时空变化特征及其关系。结果表明:15年间全省粮食产量稳步增加,气候变暖趋势明显但降水变化不显著,变暖对粮食生产有利,降水的变化未对粮食产量产生实质影响。15年间气候影响程度总体增大,但气候变化及其影响具有时空差异性:1986~1993年北部和西南部积温增加明显,粮食产量增加大于东北部和东南部;1993~2000年东北部和东南部积温增加明显,粮食产量增加超过北部和西南部。     

Adaptation to climate change: changes in farmland use and stocking rate in the U.S.

This paper examines possible adaptations to climate change in terms of pasture and crop land use and stocking rate in the United States (U.S.). Using Agricultural Census and climate data in a statistical model, we find that as temperature and precipitation increases agricultural commodity producers respond by reducing crop land and increasing pasture land. In addition, cattle stocking rate decreases as the summer Temperature-humidity Index (THI) increases and summer precipitation decreases. Using the statistical model with climate data from four General Circulation Models (GCMs), we project that land use shifts from cropping to grazing and the stocking rate declines, and these adaptations are more pronounced in the central and the southeast regions of the U.S. Controlling for other farm production variables, crop land decreases by 6 % and pasture land increases by 33 % from the baseline. Correspondingly, the associated economic impact due to adaptation is around ?14 and 29 million dollars to crop producers and pasture producers by the end of this century, respectively. The national and regional results have implications for farm programs and subsidy policies.     

Simulating impacts,potential adaptation and vulnerability of maize to climate change in India

Climate change associated global warming, rise in carbon dioxide concentration and uncertainties in precipitation has profound implications on Indian agriculture. Maize (Zea mays L.), the third most important cereal crop in India, has a major role to play in country’s food security. Thus, it is important to analyze the consequence of climate change on maize productivity in major maize producing regions in India and elucidate potential adaptive strategy to minimize the adverse effects. Calibrated and validated InfoCrop-MAIZE model was used for analyzing the impacts of increase in temperature, carbon dioxide (CO₂) and change in rainfall apart from HadCM3 A2a scenario for 2020, 2050 and 2080. The main insights from the analysis are threefold. First, maize yields in monsoon are projected to be adversely affected due to rise in atmospheric temperature; but increased rainfall can partly offset those loses. During winter, maize grain yield is projected to reduced with increase in temperature in two of the regions (Mid Indo-Gangetic Plains or MIGP, and Southern Plateau or SP), but in the Upper Indo-Gangetic Plain (UIGP), where relatively low temperatures prevail during winter, yield increased up to a 2.7°C rise in temperature. Variation in rainfall may not have a major impact on winter yields, as the crop is already well irrigated. Secondly, the spatio-temporal variations in projected changes in temperature and rainfall are likely to lead to differential impacts in the different regions. In particular, monsoon yield is reduced most in SP (up to 35%), winter yield is reduced most in MIGP (up to 55%), while UIGP yields are relatively unaffected. Third, developing new cultivars with growth pattern in changed climate scenarios similar to that of current varieties in present conditions could be an advantageous adaptation strategy for minimizing the vulnerability of maize production in India.     

Future production of rainfed wheat in Iran (Khorasan province): climate change scenario analysis

Projecting staple crop production including wheat under future climate plays a fundamental role in planning the required adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change effects especially in developing countries. The main aim of this study was to investigate the direction and magnitude of climate change impacts on grain yield of rainfed wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production and precipitation within growing season. This study was performed for various regions in Khorasan province which is located in northeast of Iran. Climate projections of two General Circulation Models (GCM) for four locations under three climate change scenarios were employed in this study for different future time periods. A stochastic weather generator (LARS-WG5) was used for downscaling to generate daily climate parameters from GCMs output. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Version 4.5 was employed to evaluate rainfed wheat performance under future climate. Grain yield of rainfed wheat and precipitation during growth period considerably decreased under different scenarios in various time periods in contrast to baseline. Highest grain yield and precipitation during growth period was obtained under B1 scenario but A1B and A2 scenarios resulted in sharp decrease (by ?57 %) of grain yield. Climate change did not have marked effects on evapotranspiration during the rainfed wheat growth. A significant correlation was detected between grain yield, precipitation and evapotranspiration under climate change for both GCMs and under all study scenarios. It was concluded, that rainfed wheat production may decline during the next 80 years especially under A2 scenario. Therefore, planning the comprehensive adaptation and mitigation program is necessary for avoiding climate change negative impact on rainfed wheat production.