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1.
Richard S.J. Tol 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》1997,2(3):151-163
This paper presents the Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND), an integrated assessment model
of climate change, and discusses selected results. FUND is a nine‐region model of the world economy and its interactions with
climate, running in time steps of one year from 1990 to 2200. The model consists of scenarios for economy and population,
which are perturbed by climate change and greenhouse gas emission reduction policy. Each region optimizes its net present
welfare. Policy variables are energy and carbon efficiency improvement, and sequestering carbon dioxide in forests. It is
found that reducing conventional air pollution is a major reason to abate carbon dioxide emissions. Climate change is an additional
reason to abate emissions. Reducing and changing energy use is preferred as an option over sequestering carbon. Under non‐cooperation,
free riding as well as assurance behaviour is observed in the model. The scope for joint implementation is limited. Under
cooperation, optimal emission abatement is (slightly) higher than under non‐cooperation, but the global coalition is not self‐enforcing
while side payments are insufficient. Optimal emission control under non‐cooperation is less than currently discussed under
the Framework Convention on Climate Change, but higher than observed in practice.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
2.
Peter Usher 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2000,61(1):37-48
A mechanism has been established to improve integration of international climate-related programmes. Known as the Climate Agenda it outlines a programme, that in a cost-effective way, responds to national obligations to respond to international agreements as well as their national needs for social and economic development. The paper briefly describes the Climate Agenda and the incorporation within it of studies of climate impact assessments and response strategies to reduce vulnerability. The need for increased emphasis on climate impact assessment and for the development of effective adaptation measures is emphasised following the elaboration of a Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). UNEP's efforts to identify national programmes contributing to the Climate Agenda are described.The response from developing countries has, however, been very disappointing, even from countries where we know work is ongoing through funding by GEF or US Country Studies Program and other bilateral programmes. Initial compilation of information available so far shows that many developed countries are putting a lot into the area of impact assessment of not just climate change, but also climate variability. There remain some research gaps, especially in the area of assessment of climate impacts on ecosystems, hydrological systems, etc. Considerable efforts are presently being directed at reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases and in the case of developing countries, most efforts are being directed towards completing national communications and providing baseline data for future studies.The paper refers to early activities by UNEP in cooperation with other international organizations to undertake integrated assessments of the impacts of climate change on important socio-economic sectors and the later incorporation of lessons learned into the IPCC Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change.Later sections outline the development of a handbook on methods for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies as a practical approach to national assessments and the development of appropriate and cost-effective response to climate change.The initiation of a GEF-funded project to apply the methods contained in the handbook and improve the results based on national studies is also described for both developed and developing countries.Working in collaboration with a team of international experts under the coordination of the Institute of Environmental Studies at Vrije University (Amsterdam), the goal of this ongoing project is to develop a valuable methodological tool that Parties to the UNFCCC may apply to develop national climate change impact and adaptation assessments. Development of these guidelines was linked to a series of country studies in Antigua and Barbuda, Estonia, Cameroon and Pakistan funded under a UNEP/GEF project. The application of the first version of the UNEP Handbook by national study teams in these four countries is making valuable technical and practical contributions and will ensure that the next version of the Handbook will be a more useful tool for experts in developing countries undertaking similar studies in the future. The methods contained in the Handbook are also the basis for similar assessments funded under bilateral development programmes in other countries. These and similar studies elsewhere are coordinated with the UNEP programme and will eventually aim to create reliable and comparable assessments, a compatible set of tools for such purpose and the identification of realistic adaptation options for incorporation into national planning for adapting to climate change. The paper also addresses how climate impact assessment and response strategies are undertaken as part of national enabling activities carried out in co-operation with UNEP. 相似文献
3.
The Biodiversity Crisis and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australia's Forests 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Jann E. Williams 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2000,61(1):65-74
If current trends continue, human activities will drastically alter most of the planet's remaining natural ecosystems and their composite biota within a few decades. Compounding the impacts on biodiversity from deleterious management practices is climate variability and change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that there is ample evidence to suggest climate change is likely to result in significant impacts on biological diversity. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the secondary effects of climate change such as changes in the occurrence of wildfire, insect outbreaks and similar disturbances. Current changes in climate are very different from those of the past due to their rate and magnitude, the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and because highly modified landscapes and an array of threatening processes limit the ability of terrestrial ecosystems and species to respond to changed conditions. One of the primary human adaptation option for conserving biodiversity is considered to be changes in management. The complex and overarching nature of climate change issues emphasises the need for greatly enhanced cooperation between scientists, policy makers, industry and the community to better understand key interactions and identify options for adaptation. A key challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that enhance the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors. Measures to enhance the resilience of biodiversity must be considered in all of these activities if many ecosystem services essential to humanity are to be sustained. New institutional arrangements appear necessary at the regional and national level to ensure that policy initiatives and research directed at assessing and mitigating the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change are complementary and undertaken strategically and cost-effectively. Policy implementation at the national level to meet responsibilities arising from the UNFCCC (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity require greater coordination and integration between economic sectors, since many primary drivers of biodiversity loss and vulnerability are influenced at this level. A case study from the Australian continent is used to illustrate several key issues and discuss a basis for reform, including recommendations for facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change. 相似文献
4.
Towards a Formal Framework of Vulnerability to Climate Change 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
Cezar Ionescu Richard J. T. Klein Jochen Hinkel K. S. Kavi Kumar Rupert Klein 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2009,14(1):1-16
There is confusion regarding the notion of “vulnerability” in the climate change scientific community. Recent research has
identified a need for formalisation, which would support accurate communication and the elimination of misunderstandings that
result from the use of ambiguous terminology. Moreover, a formal framework of vulnerability is a prerequisite for computational
approaches to its assessment. This paper presents an attempt at developing such a formal framework. We see vulnerability as
a relative concept in the sense that accurate statements about vulnerability are possible only if one clearly specifies (1)
the entity that is vulnerable, (2) the stimulus to which it is vulnerable and (3) the preference criteria to evaluate the
outcome of the interaction between the entity and the stimulus. We relate the resulting framework to the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change conceptualisation of vulnerability and two recent vulnerability studies.
This paper is dedicated to the memory of Gerhard Petschel-Held, whose pioneering work on syndromes of global change has been
a source of inspiration for us and for others across various schools of thought on vulnerability. 相似文献
5.
Michael E. McDonald 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2000,64(1):1-8
This paper summarizes the recommendations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change convened in Costa Rica in 1998. Specifically, this paper also summarizes the adaptive management science issues and, in many cases, sectoral options. The Workshop, organized by Canada and Costa Rica, involved more than 200 experts and focused on adaptation science, adaptive management and adaptation options for climate variability and change. 相似文献
6.
Reconciling National and Global Priorities in Adaptation to Climate Change: With an Illustration from Uganda 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Bwango Apuuli J. Wright C. Elias I. Burton 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2000,61(1):145-159
Many developing countries, especially in Africa, contribute only very small amounts to the world total of greenhouse gas emissions. For them, the reduction of such emissions is not a priority, and the more important issue is to find ways to reduce their vulnerability to the projected climate change which is being imposed upon them largely as a result of emissions from developed countries. This priority does not accord with the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper reports upon studies in Uganda designed to help in the development of a national adaptation strategy, and addresses the need to reconcile such a strategy with the global priority accorded to mitigation and with national economic development priorities. Some features of a national climate change adaptation strategy are identified and questions are raised about the need for an international regime to facilitate and support adaptation. 相似文献
7.
Climate change impact assessment is subject to a range of uncertainties due to both incomplete and unknowable knowledge. This
paper presents an approach to quantifying some of these uncertainties within a probabilistic framework. A hierarchical impact
model is developed that addresses uncertainty about future greenhouse gas emissions, the climate sensitivity, and limitations
and unpredictability in general circulation models. The hierarchical model is used in Bayesian Monte-Carlo simulations to
define posterior probability distributions for changes in seasonal-mean temperature and precipitation over the United Kingdom
that are conditional on prior distributions for the model parameters. The application of this approach to an impact model
is demonstrated using a hydrological example.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
8.
We introduce climate impact response functions as a means for summarizing and visualizing the responses of climate-sensitive
sectors to changes in fundamental drivers of global climate change. In an inverse application, they allow the translation
of thresholds for climate change impacts (‘impact guard-rails’) into constraints for climate and atmospheric composition parameters
(‘climate windows’). It thus becomes feasible to specify long-term objectives for climate protection with respect to the impacts
of climate change instead of crude proxy variables, like the change in global mean temperature. We apply the method to assess
impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, using the threat to protected areas as the central impact indicator. Future climate states
are characterized by geographically and seasonally explicit climate change patterns for temperature, precipitation and cloud
cover, and by their atmospheric CO2 concentration. The patterns are based on the results of coupled general circulation models. We study the sensitivity of the
impact indicators and the corresponding climate windows to the spatial coverage of the analysis and to different climate change
projections. This enables us to identify the most sensitive biomes and regions, and to determine those factors which significantly
influence the results of the impact assessment. Based on the analysis, we conclude that climate impact response functions
are a valuable means for the representation of climate change impacts across a wide range of plausible futures. They are particularly
useful in integrated assessment models of climate change based on optimizing or inverse approaches where the on-line simulation
of climate impacts by sophisticated impact models is infeasible due to their high computational demand.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
9.
L. A. James Valverde Jr. Henry D. Jacoby Gordon M. Kaufman 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》1999,4(2-3):87-101
We develop an integrated framework for evaluating sequential greenhouse gas abatement policies under uncertainty. The analysis integrates information concerning the magnitude, timing, and impacts of climate change with data on the likely effectiveness and cost of possible response options. Reduced-scale representations of the global climate system, drawn from the MIT Integrated Global System Model, form the empirical basis of the analysis. The method is illustrated in application to emissions control policies of the form considered under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 相似文献
10.
This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate
change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular
focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modeling. In a second part, a climate–economy feedback is defined and characterized. The following results were found. 1) It has a long characteristic time, which lies between
50 and 100 years depending on the hypotheses; this time scale is long when compared to the system's other time scales, and
the feedback cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change. 2) Mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback
of an emission reduction on the economy can be significant only after a 20-year delay and is really efficient only after at
least 50 years. 3) Even discounted, production changes due to an action on emissions are significant over more than one century.
4) The methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions,
is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth.
相似文献
Stéphane HallegatteEmail: |
11.
Kenneth Strzepek David Yates Gary Yohe Richard Tol Nicholas Mader 《Integrated Assessment》2001,2(3):139-157
A space of “not-implausible” scenarios for Egypt's future under climate change is defined along two dimensions. One depicts
representative climate change and climate variability scenarios that span the realm of possibility. Some would not be very
threatening. Others portend dramatic reductions in average flows into Lake Nassar and associated increases in the likelihood
of year to year shortfalls below critical coping thresholds; these would be extremely troublesome, especially if they were
cast in the context of increased political instability across the entire Nile Basin. Still others depict futures along which
relatively routine and relatively inexpensive adaptation might be anticipated. The ability to adapt to change and to cope
with more severe extremes would, however, be linked inexorably to the second set of social–political–economic scenarios. The
second dimension, defined as “anthropogenic” social/economic/political scenarios describe the holistic environment within
which the determinants of adaptive capacity for water management, agriculture, and coastal zone management must be assessed.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
12.
Gregory E. Insarov Serguei M. Semenov Irina D. Insarova 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》1999,55(2):279-298
The issue of biological monitoring of the local consequences of anticipated global climate change is considered for the Central Negev Highlands, Israel. Epilithic lichens are suggested as biological monitors. The proposed methodology of such monitoring consists of a sampling scheme, including lichen measurement along transects on flat calcareous rocks, and construction of a trend detection index (TDI). TDI is a sum of lichen species cover with coefficients chosen so as to ensure maximum ability to detect global climate trends. Coefficients have been estimated in a study of lichens along an altitudinal gradient from 500 to 1000 m a.s.l. The gradient study demonstrated that the TDI index is performed better than other integrated indices. Recommendations on this system to monitor climate change with epilthic lichens are given. Measuring, for instance, a hundred transects in fifty plots (two transet per plot scheme) allows one to detect a climate-driven change in the epilithic lichen community corresponding to a 0.8 °C shift in annual mean temperature. Such resolution appears sufficient in view of global warming of 2.5 °C considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as a realistic prediction for the end of the next century. 相似文献
13.
Over the past two decades, concern about human-induced climate change has become an increasingly important item on the environmental and political agenda. The signing of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the adoption of Agenda 21 at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 provided international organizations and the nations of the world with a new focus for climate-related activities. Although there remains considerable scientific uncertainty about the extent, magnitude, and rate of climate change and the impacts of such change, actions to address climate change have been initiated both internationally and nationally. Major international activities include the World Climate Programme, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the United Nations Environment Programme. 相似文献
14.
Many trace constituents other than carbon dioxide affect the radiative budget of the atmosphere. The existing international agreement to limit greenhouse gases, the Kyoto Protocol, includes carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) and credit for some carbon sinks. We investigate technological options for reducing emissions of these gases and the economic implications of including other greenhouse gases and sinks in the climate change control policy. We conduct an integreated assessment of costs using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model combined with estimates of abatement costs for non-CO2 greenhouse gases and sinks. We find that failure to take advantage of the other gas and sink flexibility would nearly double aggregate Annex B costs. Including all the GHGs and sinks is actually cheaper than if only CO2 had been included in the Protocol and their inclusion achieves greater overall abatement. There remains considerable uncertainty in these estimates, the magnitude of the savings depends heavily on reference projections of emissions, for example, but these uncertainties do not change the overall conclusion that non-CO2 GHGs are an important part of a climate control policy. 相似文献
15.
Changes in global near-surface temperature and sea level are calculated from 2000 to 2100 for the Post-SRES (Special Report
on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios that stabilize the CO2 concentration early in the 22nd century. Seven stabilization scenarios are examined together with their corresponding SRES
marker scenarios – A1, A1/S450, A1/S550, A1/S650, A2, A2/S550, A2/S750, B1, B1/S450, B2, and B2/S550 – where the number following
the S indicates the stabilized CO2 concentration in parts per million by volume (ppmv). The calculations are performed using an energy-balance-climate/upwelling-diffusion-ocean
model for three values of the climate sensitivity, ΔT
2x
=1.5, 2.5 and 4.5°C. The resulting reductions in global warming and sea-level rise for the stabilization scenarios relative
to their corresponding marker scenario increases with ΔT
2x
and are greater the lower the stabilized CO2 concentration. For the S550 stabilization scenarios, the reductions in global warming and sea-level rise in 2100 range from
0.29°C and 3.31 cm for B2/S550 with ΔT
2x
=1.5°C, to 1.23°C and 11.81 cm for A2/S550 with ΔT
2x
=4.5°C. The percent reductions for the global warming and sea-level rise for each stabilization scenario are almost independent
of ΔT
2x
and range respectively from about 16% and 12% for the A1/S650 scenario to about 39% and 30% for the A1/S450 scenario. The
geographical distributions of near-surface temperature change are constructed using a method to superpose the patterns simulated
by our atmospheric general-circulation/mixed-layer-ocean model, individually for doubled CO2 concentration and decupled SO4 burden. Results are illustrated for the B2 and B2/S550 scenarios for ΔT
2x
=2.5°C. The near-surface temperature changes of the B2/S550 scenario in 2100 are everywhere smaller than those for the B2
scenario, with values ranging from about 0.3°C in the tropics to 0.5°C over Antarctica and 0.7°C in the Arctic. The global
results of this study are available on the web at: http://crga.atmos.uiuc.edu/research/post-sres.html. We would be pleased
to collaborate with other researchers in using these results in impact and integrated-assessment studies.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
16.
Coastal Flood Risk Analysis Using Landsat-7 ETM+ Imagery and SRTM DEM: A Case Study of Izmir, Turkey
Demirkesen AC Evrendilek F Berberoglu S Kilic S 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2007,131(1-3):293-300
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports an acceleration of the global mean sea-level rise (MSLR) in the twentieth century in response to global climate change. If this acceleration remains constant, then some coastal areas are most likely to be inundated by the year 2100. The ability to identify the differential vulnerability of coastlines to future inundation hazards as result of global climate change is necessary for timely actions to be taken. Yildiz et al. (Journal of Mapping, 17, 1-75, 2003) reported that the local MSLR in the city of Izmir rose at a rate of 6.8 +/- 0.9 mm year(-1) between 1984 and 2002. In this study, the spatial distribution of the coastal inundation hazards of Izmir region was determined using not only land-use and land-cover (LULC) types derived from the maximum likelihood classification of Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) multi-spectral image set but also the classification of the digital elevation model (DEM) acquired by the shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM). Coastal areas with elevations of 2 and 5 m above mean sea-level vulnerable to inundation were found to cover 2.1 and 3.7% of the study region (6,107 km(2)), respectively. Our findings revealed that Menemen plain along Gediz river, and the settlements of Karsiyaka, Alacati, Aliaga, Candarli and Selcuk are at high risk in order of decreasing vulnerability to permanent and episodic inundation by 2100 under the high MSLR scenarios of 20 to 50 mm year(-1). 相似文献
17.
In this paper, we present a general method, based on a convex optimisation technique, that facilitates the coupling of climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework. As a demonstration of the method, we couple an economic growth model à la Ramsey adapted from DICE-99 with an efficient intermediate complexity climate model, C-GOLDSTEIN, which has highly simplified physics, but fully 3-D ocean dynamics. As in DICE-99, we assume that an economic cost is associated with global temperature change: this change is obtained from the climate model, which is driven by the GHG concentrations computed from the economic growth path. The work extends a previous paper in which these models were coupled in cost-effectiveness mode. Here we consider the more intricate cost-benefit coupling in which the climate impact is not fixed a priori. We implement the coupled model using an oracle-based optimisation technique. Each model is contained in an oracle, which supplies model output and information on its sensitivity to a master program. The algorithm Proximal-ACCPM guarantees the convergence of the procedure under sufficient convexity assumptions. Our results demonstrate the possibility of a consistent, cost-benefit, climate-damage optimisation analysis with a 3-D climate model. 相似文献
18.
Yupeng Liu Deyong Yu Bin Xun Yun Sun Ruifang Hao 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2014,186(1):135-149
Climate changes may have immediate implications for forest productivity and may produce dramatic shifts in tree species distributions in the future. Quantifying these implications is significant for both scientists and managers. Cunninghamia lanceolata is an important coniferous timber species due to its fast growth and wide distribution in China. This paper proposes a methodology aiming at enhancing the distribution and productivity of C. lanceolata against a background of climate change. First, we simulated the potential distributions and establishment probabilities of C. lanceolata based on a species distribution model. Second, a process-based model, the PnET-II model, was calibrated and its parameterization of water balance improved. Finally, the improved PnET-II model was used to simulate the net primary productivity (NPP) of C. lanceolata. The simulated NPP and potential distribution were combined to produce an integrated indicator, the estimated total NPP, which serves to comprehensively characterize the productivity of the forest under climate change. The results of the analysis showed that (1) the distribution of C. lanceolata will increase in central China, but the mean probability of establishment will decrease in the 2050s; (2) the PnET-II model was improved, calibrated, and successfully validated for the simulation of the NPP of C. lanceolata in China; and (3) all scenarios predicted a reduction in total NPP in the 2050s, with a markedly lower reduction under the a2 scenario than under the b2 scenario. The changes in NPP suggested that forest productivity will show a large decrease in southern China and a mild increase in central China. All of these findings could improve our understanding of the impact of climate change on forest ecosystem structure and function and could provide a basis for policy-makers to apply adaptive measures and overcome the unfavorable influences of climate change. 相似文献
19.
Global Warming Potential (GWP) is an index used to measure the cumulative radiative forcing of a tonne of greenhouse house
gas (GHG) relative to that of a ‘reference’ gas (CO2). Under the Kyoto Protocol, GWP can be used as a fixed index to govern the trade-off between different GHGs in a multi-gas approach to GHGs abatement. The use of fixed GWPs has
been criticized for not being very cost effective compared to the use of some flexible indices. To gain wider acceptance, however, a flexible index must also prove to be easy to use, and the economic gains from
its adoption must be significant. In this paper, we develop a flexible index based on the concept of marginal rather than cumulative or average global warming potentials. These marginal global warming potentials (MGWPs) can be endogenously
determined within a climate model given a particular climate objective based on radiative forcing level. The MGPWs are then
linked to the marginal abatement costs of the GHGs, which are also endogenously determined within an economic model. When
the two concepts are linked in this way, the result is a cost-effective way of achieving a particular climate change objective
with multigas abatement. We show that the savings in costs when using this flexible MGPWs can be significant, and more importantly,
they are not uniformly distributed across different regions.
相似文献
Claudia KemfertEmail: |
20.
To estimate the magnitude of climate change anticipated forCanada's 38 National Parks (NPs) and Park Reserves, seasonaltemperature and precipitation scenarios were constructed for 2050and 2090 using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling andAnalysis (CCCma) coupled model (CGCM1). For each park, we assessed impacts on physical systems, species, ecosystems andpeople. Important, widespread changes relate to marine andfreshwater hydrology, glacial balance, waning permafrost, increased natural disturbance, shorter ice season, northern andupward altitudinal species and biome shifts, and changed visitation patterns. Other changes are regional (e.g., combinedEast coast subsidence and sea level rise increase coastal erosionand deposition, whereas, on the Pacific coast, tectonic upliftnegates sea level rise). Further predictions concern individualparks (e.g., Unique fens of Bruce Peninsular NP will migratelakewards with lowered water levels, but structural regulation of Lake Huron for navigation and power generation would destroythe fens). Knowledge gaps are the most important findings. Forexample: we could not form conclusions about glacial massbalance, or its effects on rivers and fjords. Likewise, for theEast Coast Labrador Current we could neither estimate temperature and salinity effects of extra iceberg formation, nor the further effects on marine food chains, and breeding park seabirds. We recommend 1) Research on specific large knowledge gaps; 2) Climate change information exchange with protected area agencies in other northern countries; and 3) incorporating climate uncertainty into park plans and management. We discuss options for a new park management philosophy in the face of massive change and uncertainty. 相似文献