人工气候箱——环境技术的应用

本文探讨了人工气候箱－环境技术的广泛应用,并综合介绍了该设备的完善管理与改进的研究。     

Closure of Disputes in Assessments of Climate Change in The Netherlands

2 greenhouse gases in assessment studies. For the cases studied, we identify variability in the assessment reports in the Netherlands during the pre-IPCC period. In the Netherlands arena, the assessments in this period can be seen as exponents of two different lines, a Netherlands line and an international line. We seek to identify what factors were decisive in the selection processes that resulted in the closure of visible disputes (visible in or across the assessment reports) for both cases. Our analysis reveals a remarkable difference in the adoption behavior of two Dutch assessment groups despite a large overlap in membership. We provide evidence that it is not the paradigmatic predisposition of the experts in the committee that was decisive for the closure of visible disputes, but it was the context in which the experts operated and the commitments they had made in each setting.     

Coping with Change: The Small Experiment as a Strategic Approach to Environmental Sustainability

The patterns of living, planning, and resource utilization as practiced in Western countries for decades are not sustainable; change of some sort is essential. But what changes are appropriate, and, perhaps more important, will people accept them? The small experiment framework provides a strategy for meeting the challenge of change. By encouraging participation, limiting the scale of initial change, and incorporating some aspects of the familiar, many of the difficulties that make change so problematic can be mitigated or even eliminated. An exploration, from a psychological perspective, of the characteristic difficulties surrounding potential change provides the context for a discussion of the components of the small experiment and an analysis of how these elements address these characteristic challenges. A comparison to adaptive management is drawn, and several concrete examples illustrate how the strategy has been used successfully to address a variety of environmental problems.     

Competitive Displacement of Trees in Response to Environmental Change or Introduction of Exotics

Various global change factors such as natural and anthropogenic climate change, tropospheric ozone, CO₂, SO₂, and nitrogen deposition affect forest growth, but in species-specific ways. Since even small differences in growth rates between competing species can lead to eventual competitive exclusion, it is important to know the rate at which displacement might occur. Similarly, invasive species may displace native species and cause their extinction. A simulation study of displacement velocity was conducted. Competitive displacement between pairs of similar tree species in which one species has a growth advantage produced trajectories that fit an exponential decay model, leading to the use of the half-life as a useful summary statistic. At any given level of growth differential, the half-life for shade-tolerant species was found to be much longer than for shade-intolerant species due to the ability of shade-tolerant species to survive even when their growth is very slow. Trees with longer life-spans also persisted longer, but this effect was weaker than the shade-tolerance effect. Disturbances speeded up displacement by increasing turnover. For short-lived, intolerant species with a 20% disturbance rate and 20% growth suppression, the estimate of an 100-year half-life could be considered a precipitous rate of decline, with a risk of extinction at about 500 years. In the absence of disturbance, and with a 20% growth reduction or differential between competing species, half-lives for species replacement ranged from 100+ to nearly 800 years. With lesser growth differentials, half-lives are much longer. Such gradual competitive displacement processes will be very difficult to detect in the field over periods of even decades. Results of this study have implications for exotic species invasions. It is predicted that intact forest is not truly resistant to invasion, but that invasion of shade-tolerant tree species should be very slow. Invasion of shade-intolerant species is predicted to be accelerated by disturbance, as has been frequently observed. Results of the simulations were supported by data compiled from several parts of the world.     

The Water Fluxes of the Yellow River to the Sea in the Past 50 Years, in Response to Climate Change and Human Activities

Since the 1970s, the water fluxes to the sea of the Yellow River have declined significantly. Based on data of precipitation, air temperature, the measured and “natural” river flow, the water diversion and consumption, and the areas of erosion and sediment control measures over the drainage basin, water fluxes to the sea of the Yellow River are studied in relation with the influences of changing climate and human activities. The Yellow River basin can be divided into different water source areas; multiple regression indicates that the variation in precipitation over different water source areas has different effect on water fluxes to the sea. In the period between 1970 and 1997, averaged air temperature over the whole Yellow River increased by about 1.0°C, from 16.5°C to 17.5°C, a factor that is negatively correlated with the water yield of the Yellow River. Water diversion and consumption has sharply increased and resulted in a significant decline in the water fluxes to the sea. Since the 1960s, erosion and sediment control measures have been practiced over the drainage basin. This factor, to a lesser degree, is also responsible for the decrease in water fluxes to the sea. A multiple regression equation has been established to estimate the change in water fluxes to the sea caused by the changes in precipitation, air temperature, water diversion and consumption, erosion, and sediment control measures, indicating that the contribution of water diversion and consumption to the variation in annual water flux to the sea is 41.3%, that of precipitation is 40.8%, that of temperature is 11.4%, and that of erosion and sediment control measures is 6.5%.     

The Sensitivity of Northern Groundwater Recharge to Climate Change: A Case Study in Northwest Alaska1

Clilverd, Hannah M., Daniel M. White, Amy C. Tidwell, and Michael A. Rawlins, 2011. The Sensitivity of Northern Groundwater Recharge to Climate Change: A Case Study in Northwest Alaska. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1228–1240. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00569.x Abstract: The potential impacts of climate change on northern groundwater supplies were examined at a fractured‐marble mountain aquifer near Nome, Alaska. Well water surface elevations (WSE) were monitored from 2004‐2009 and analyzed with local meteorological data. Future aquifer response was simulated with the Pan‐Arctic Water Balance Model (PWBM) using forcings (air temperature and precipitation) derived from fifth‐generation European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global circulation model climate scenarios for extreme and modest increases in greenhouse gases. We observed changes in WSE due to the onset of spring snowmelt, low intensity and high intensity rainfall events, and aquifer head recession during the winter freeze period. Observed WSE and snow depth compared well with PWBM‐simulated groundwater recharge and snow storage. Using ECHAM5‐simulated increases in mean annual temperature of 4‐8°C by 2099, the PWBM predicted that by 2099 later freeze‐up and earlier snowmelt will decrease seasonal snow cover by one to two months. Annual evapotranspiration and precipitation are predicted to increase 27‐40% (55‐81 mm) and 33‐42% (81‐102 mm), respectively, with the proportion of snowfall in annual precipitation decreasing on average 9‐25% (p < 0.05). The amount of snowmelt is not predicted to change significantly by 2099; however, a decreasing trend is evident from 2060 in the extreme ECHAM5 greenhouse gas scenario. Increases in effective precipitation were predicted to be great enough to sustain sufficient groundwater recharge.