氰戊菊酯生理毒物代谢动力学模型的建立

利用生理毒物代谢动力学(PBTK)对小鼠静脉注射农药氰戊菊酯后,氰戊菊酯在体内分布转化代谢过程进行模拟,为评价农药暴露风险提供依据。小鼠静脉注射氰戊菊酯的PBTK模型构建分为5个房室:肝脏、肺、肾脏、充分灌注室和不充分灌注室,各房室内氰戊菊酯的浓度变化率由质量守恒微分方程表示。根据欧拉数值计算方法,对小鼠静脉注射氰戊菊酯后的毒物代谢动力学数据进行模拟。结果模拟预测了小鼠静脉注射0.5 mg·kg-1、2.5 mg·kg-1、10 mg·kg-1氰戊菊酯后血液、肝脏和肺中氰戊菊酯浓度变化曲线。为验证该模型的准确性,对小鼠静脉注射0.77 mg·kg-1氰戊菊酯后血液、肝脏和肺中氰戊菊酯的浓度值变化模拟值与前人的实验测量值进行比较,结果显示模拟值与实验值之间不存在显著性差异。因此利用该方法可以估测小鼠静脉注射氰戊菊酯的毒物代谢动力学数据,为评估农药暴露体内剂量数据提供了便利途径。     

烧烤场景中基于PBPK模型的人群PAHs暴露评估

为探究烧烤场景中人群多环芳烃(PAHs)的暴露特征与健康风险,使用美国环保署推荐的计算模型和基于生理的药代动力学模型(PBPK)模拟了我国人群的PAHs外暴露剂量和健康风险以及内暴露剂量变化情况。结果表明:1)普通居民和职业人群的日均苯并[a]芘等效摄入剂量为(50±3)ng·d~(-1)和(179±98)ng·d~(-1),其终生致癌风险为7.57×10~(-7)~1.28×10~(-5),均在可接受范围内;2)普通居民暴露后体内组织中PAHs内暴露标志物芘的最大浓度范围依次为肝(6.52~8.67 ng·L~(-1))肾(0.97~1.12 ng·L~(-1))静脉血(0.71~0.94 ng·L~(-1))皮肤(0.64~0.75 ng·L~(-1))脂肪(0.36~0.56 ng·L~(-1)),职业人群暴露后体内组织芘最大浓度为脂肪(2.97ng·L~(-1))皮肤(1.14 ng·L~(-1))≥肾(1.14 ng·L~(-1))肝(0.57 ng·L~(-1))静脉血(0.17 ng·L~(-1));3)膳食是普通人群的主导暴露途经,会导致肝组织浓度最大;呼吸和皮肤接触是职业人群的主导暴露途经,会导致脂肪组织浓度最大;4)暴露标志物芘的组织总富集量关系为职业人群(48 ng·d~(-1))大于普通人群(6~11 ng·d~(-1))。     

贵阳市西郊水厂所供管网末梢水重金属污染物季节性特征及潜在健康风险评价

以贵阳市西郊水厂2014年3月和7月所供管网末梢水中10种重金属污染物检测数据为基础,进行了季节性特征分析,并采用美国环保局(USEPA)推荐的健康风险评价模型进行了潜在健康风险评价。结果表明,贵阳市西郊水厂所供管网末梢水中10种重金属的浓度均符合国家饮用水卫生标准;重金属污染物的浓度随季节呈现出不同的特征,汞、锌、硒、钼和钡5种重金属的平均浓度呈现枯水期高于丰水期的特征,而铅、铜、锰和镍4种重金属正好相反,砷浓度的季节性特征不显著;成年人的年平均致癌风险显著大于儿童,但两者年平均非致癌风险接近;儿童和成年人2类人群经口暴露途径的健康风险值均大于皮肤暴露,其中致癌风险分别在2.49×10-6~9.16×10-6和3.26×10-8~9.59×10-8之间,非致癌风险在2.29×10-8~3.20×10-8和1.85×10-10~4.14×10-10之间,且致癌风险均大于非致癌风险。贵阳市西郊水厂所供管网末梢水中10种重金属污染物致癌风险和非致癌风险均未超过最大可接受水平,未对该供水区居民的健康造成威胁。     

典型石化企业排放有毒有害大气污染物人体健康风险评估

石化行业生产过程中会产生有毒有害大气污染物,并可能对人体健康产生危害。为贯彻落实《大气污染防治法》第七十八条中对有毒有害大气污染物(hazardous air pollutants,HAPs)实行风险管理,评估环境风险的要求,有必要开展石化企业排放HAPs的人体健康风险评估。本研究采用美国环境保护局(US EPA)发布的人体健康风险评估手册F部分吸入风险评估指南中的方法,推算出HAPs物质对人体健康的致癌风险值和非致癌风险值;通过CALPUFF模型模拟预测出典型石化企业HAPs物质扩散范围及空气中的浓度,并将模拟预测得到的污染物浓度与推算得到的风险值进行比较,进而表征园区内该企业排放HAPs对人体健康的风险。结果表明,基于最坏情况分析,该石化企业排放的HAPs致癌风险值为0.421μg·m-3,非致癌风险值为2.212μg·m-3,CALPUFF模拟预测空气中污染物浓度最大为0.62μg·m-3,且模型预测的月均浓度均未超过致癌和非致癌风险值,风险表征结果表明,该石化企业排放的HAPs物质对人体健康不存在致癌和非致癌风险。但本研究仅针对某石化企业开展人体健康风险评估,并不能代表石化行业排放有毒有害大气污染物对人体健康风险的整体水平。     

我国36个重点城市饮用水中多环芳烃健康风险评价

分别用2种基于不确定性的风险评价方法(蒙特卡洛法和三角模糊数法)和1种基于确定性的风险评价方法(美国EPA终身致癌风险)对我国36个重点城市饮用水中多环芳烃的终生致癌风险进行评价。所研究的98个水厂出水中多环芳烃浓度范围为17.5~408.3 ng·L-1,致癌性多环芳烃(苯并[a]蒽,屈,苯并[b]荧蒽,苯并[k]荧蒽,苯并[a]芘,茚并[1,2,3-cd]芘)的总量浓度为nd~94.7 ng·L-1。所有水厂出水中苯并[a]芘浓度均小于10 ng·L-1。假设出厂水即为最终饮用水,对16种PAHs浓度用毒性当量因子法转化为相对于苯并[a]芘等效浓度(TEQ BaP)。使用概率风险评价方法计算,结果显示在95%的概率区间我国居民通过饮水途径暴露多环芳烃的终生致癌风险小于5.45×10-6(蒙特卡洛法)和7.56×10-6(三角模糊数法)。而采用确定性风险评价方法,计算得到的最大风险为7.12×10-6。两种计算方法得到的我国饮用水中多环芳烃的终生致癌风险都处于可接受水平。比较不同的评价方法后发现,不同方法获得的信息并不完全重合,相对于通常的基于确定性的非概率健康风险评价方法,基于不确定性的概率风险评价方法获得的结果更为保守。     

西南某矿区家庭灰尘中重金属的暴露及其健康风险评价

家庭灰尘是人群居住场所的重要环境介质,人群可通过吸入、摄食及皮肤接触等途径摄入灰尘中的污染物,对健康造成一定的损伤。为探索我国西南某矿区周边村庄室内重金属的污染对人群健康的潜在风险,采用2014年3月对我国西南某矿区周边村庄室内灰尘中重金属污染水平调查的数据,结合美国EPA健康风险评价模型对人群健康风险进行分析。结果表明:人群非致癌风险和致癌风险暴露剂量均表现为儿童>成人男性>成人女性,呈现手-口摄食途径>皮肤接触途径>吸入途径,其中儿童、成人男性和成人女性手-口摄食暴露途径占总暴露剂量的98.16%、55.61%和51.5%;儿童以Pb、Cr的暴露为主,成人以Cr的暴露为主;家庭灰尘中单种重金属元素和多途径叠加的非致癌风险在8.81E-03~1.24E-02之间,均小于1,其中儿童以Pb的非致癌风险为主,经手-口摄食暴露占总风险的40%;致癌风险在4.19E-05~3.35E-04之间;A、B、C村儿童的致癌风险均高于US EPA所推荐的可接受水平10-4,其暴露剂量和健康风险均为成人男性和成人女性的5~6倍,且以Cr通过手-口摄食暴露产生的风险最大,占总风险的93%左右。     

北京市东北城区夏季环境空气中苯系物的污染特征与健康风险评价

于2013年8月2日至31日,利用Airmo VOC在线分析仪开展了北京市东北城区环境空气中挥发性有机物(VOCs)的在线监测,分析了其中16种苯系物的污染水平、变化特征、来源及其臭氧形成潜势(OFP),并采用US EPA的健康风险评价模型对BTEX(苯、甲苯、乙苯、间-对二甲苯、邻二甲苯)和苯乙烯的人体健康风险进行了评价。结果表明,16种苯系物在观测期间总平均质量浓度为10.36μg·m-3,其中BTEX的质量浓度均值为7.45μg·m-3,约占总的苯系物质量浓度的72%。苯系物的质量浓度呈现明显的一次污染物日变化特征,即早晚较高,中午较低。苯与甲苯的质量浓度比值(B/T)平均为0.39,说明除机动车尾气外,涂料和溶剂的挥发释放对大气中苯系物也可能具有重要贡献。间-对二甲苯、1,2,4-三甲苯和甲苯的OFP值较高,对北京市大气臭氧光化学形成具有显著贡献。BTEX和苯乙烯对人体的非致癌风险危害商值在8.70E-05至3.76E-02之间,危害指数为6.19E-02,对暴露人群尚不存在明显的非致癌风险;而苯的致癌风险值为8.80E-06,超过了US EPA的建议值1.00E-06,显示苯对研究区居民身体健康存在潜在的致癌风险。     

常州市浅层地下水重金属污染对城区、城郊居民健康风险评价

采用美国EPA推荐的风险评价模型,同时考虑研究区人群基本情况和生活习惯等,进行推荐模型的参数优化,建立适合研究区人群的风险评价方法,并对城区、城郊不同暴露途径下地下水污染进行健康风险评价.结果表明,常州城区饮水暴露途径与皮肤暴露途径致癌风险男性分别为2.79×10-3和2.81×10-5,女性分别为1.87×10-3和2.45×10-5;非致癌风险男性分别为3.48×10-6和3.79×10-5,女性分别为2.27×10-6和3.01×10-5.城郊饮水暴露途径与皮肤暴露途径致癌风险男性分别为1.26×10-3和1.32×10-5,女性分别为9.77×10-4和1.18×10-5;非致癌风险男性分别为4.07×10-6和3.43×10-5,女性分别为2.14×10-6和9.71×10-6,风险水平均处于可接受范围内.敏感性分析表明饮水暴露途径下各因子的敏感性在-19.8%—20.1%之间,皮肤暴露途径下各因子的敏感性在-14.8%—16.1%之间,对研究区人群暴露参数进行调查实测,降低了评价结果的不确定性.研究浅层地下水的健康风险评价,对合理开发该区域地下水资源具有重要参考价值.     

荥阳市春秋季观测期间颗粒物中重金属健康风险评价

为研究荥阳市2017春秋两季观测期间颗粒物中重金属的浓度特征及其在不同暴露途径下对人体的健康风险,采集大气中的PM_(2.5)和PM_(10),使用电感耦合等离子质谱仪ICP-MS对颗粒物中重金属浓度(Co、Cu、Zn、As、Cr、Pb)进行测定.结果表明,春、秋季的PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)的浓度均值分别为95.01μg·m~(-3)、149.03μg·m~(-3)和61.61μg·m~(-3)、108.61μg·m~(-3). PM_(2.5)浓度最高比《环境空气质量标准》(GB 3095—2012)规定的一级浓度限值高5.71倍,PM_(10)比其一级浓度限值高6.42倍,比二级浓度限值高1.47倍.健康风险评价表明,在呼吸暴露途径下,PM_(10)中Cr元素在春季对成人有一定致癌风险,在秋季则对成人和儿童均存在致癌风险,且秋季As、Cr、Co的危险指数高达4.2,存在显著非致癌风险;皮肤接触途径下,PM_(10)中Cr元素在春季对儿童和成人均有致癌风险,秋季则主要是对成人存在致癌风险;口入途径下,秋季PM_(2.5)中As元素对儿童有潜在致癌风险,PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)中重金属元素整体在两个季节对儿童均有显著非致癌风险.     

抗菌消费品中纳米银含量调查及银的健康风险评价

纳米银(Ag NP)因具有良好的抗菌特性被广泛应用于日常消费品中,人体主要通过皮肤接触或口服等方式暴露于Ag NP。为了评价这些抗菌消费品中银对成人的非致癌暴露风险,对市面10种日常抗菌消费品中Ag NP和总银含量进行了调查,并采用美国环保局推荐的皮肤和口部暴露途径的健康风险评估模型来评价含银抗菌消费品引起的皮肤及口部非致癌暴露风险。调查结果表明:4种液态抗菌消费品中检测出Ag NP,含量为0.79~57.89 mg·L~(-1),占其总银含量的8.8%~99.1%。其他厂家标注含有Ag NP的抗菌消费品中则未检测出Ag NP。风险评价结果显示,大多数抗菌消费品的银风险熵为3.6×10-4~6.8×10-1,其中经皮肤暴露的银非致癌风险熵为1.0×10-3~6.8×10-1,经口暴露的银风险熵为3.6×10-4~6.0×10-3,对人体健康不会产生显著风险;然而,其中1种抗菌消费品中银的风险熵上限为0.86,接近于1,存在潜在的非致癌风险。     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Rapid,recurring, structured survey versus bioblitz for generating biodiversity data and analysis with a multispecies abundance model

A bioblitz inexpensively and quickly generates biodiversity data, but bioblitzes are often conducted with haphazard, unreplicated sampling. Results tend to be taxonomically, geographically, or temporally biased, lack metadata, and consist of lists of observed taxa that do not enable further analyses or correction for imperfect detection. A rapid, recurring, structured survey (RRSS) uses a structured sampling design and temporal and spatial replication to survey randomly selected sites on a conservation property. We participated in a loosely structured bioblitz and a subsequent RRSS at Big Canoe Creek Nature Preserve in Springville (St. Clair County), Alabama (USA) to compare observed richness derived from the 2 survey approaches. The RRSS data structure enabled us to fit models that accounted for imperfect detection to estimate abundances, occupancy probabilities, and habitat associations. The loosely structured bioblitz data could not be used in such models. We present a new integrated multispecies abundance model that we applied to avian RRSS data. Our model extension enables estimation for the community, employs data augmentation to estimate the number of undetected species, and incorporates covariates. The RRSS generated a more comprehensive and less biased list of observed taxonomic richness than the loosely structured bioblitz (e.g., 73 vs. 45 bird species and 104 vs. 63 insect families from the RRSS vs. loosely structured bioblitz, respectively). Models fit to the RRSS data identified seasonal patterns in avian community composition and allowed for estimation of habitat–occupancy relationships for insect taxa. The RRSS protocol has potential for broad transferability as a standardized, quick, and inexpensive way to inventory biodiversity and estimate ecological parameters while providing an outreach opportunity.     

Compliance with and ecosystem function of biodiversity offsets in North American and European freshwaters

Land-use change via human development is a major driver of biodiversity loss. To reduce these impacts, billions of dollars are spent on biodiversity offsets. However, studies evaluating offset project effectiveness that examine components such as the overall compliance and function of projects remain rare. We reviewed 577 offsetting projects in freshwater ecosystems that included the metrics project size, type of aquatic system (e.g., wetland and creek), offsetting measure (e.g., enhancement, restoration, and creation), and an assessment of the projects’ compliance and functional success. Project information was obtained from scientific and government databases and gray literature. Despite considerable investment in offsetting projects, crucial problems persisted. Although compliance and function were related to each other, a high level of compliance did not guarantee a high degree of function. However, large projects relative to area had better function than small projects. Function improved when projects targeted productivity or specific ecosystem features and when multiple complementary management targets were in place. Restorative measures were more likely to achieve targets than creating entirely new ecosystems. Altogether the relationships we found highlight specific ecological processes that may help improve offsetting outcomes.     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

A palaeo-hydrogeological model for arsenic contamination in southern and south-east Asia

An argument is presented in which areas of natural arsenic contamination of modern groundwaters throughout Asia have a common origin. Arsenic originally accumulated in oceanic ferro-manganoan sediments of the eastern Palaeo-Tethys. This was further concentrated through oceanic crustal extinction in what later became the south-east Chinese accreted mineralised terrain. Proto-Himalayan uplift of this area created the palaeo-drainage systems of the Ganges – Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Mekong, and Red Rivers, with consequent headwater erosion of arsenic-rich sediments. Their downstream deposition as immature and easily redistributed Neogene sandstones, silts, and iron-rich clays has created secondary and tertiary reservoirs of adsorbed and authigenic arsenic, from which the current arsenic-rich groundwaters have evolved. Considering river basins within the above palaeo-hydrogeological framework provides a basis for assessing the risk of arsenic in groundwater basins of south and south-eastern Asia.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Threats to intact tropical peatlands and opportunities for their conservation

Large, intact areas of tropical peatland are highly threatened at a global scale by the expansion of commercial agriculture and other forms of economic development. Conserving peatlands on a landscape scale, with their hydrology intact, is of international conservation importance to preserve their distinctive biodiversity and ecosystem services and maintain their resilience to future environmental change. We explored threats to and opportunities for conserving remaining intact tropical peatlands; thus, we excluded peatlands of Indonesia and Malaysia, where extensive deforestation, drainage, and conversion to plantations means conservation in this region can protect only small fragments of the original ecosystem. We focused on a case study, the Pastaza‐Marañón Foreland Basin (PMFB) in Peru, which is among the largest known intact tropical peatland landscapes in the world and is representative of peatland vulnerability. Maintenance of the hydrological conditions critical for carbon storage and ecosystem function of peatlands is, in the PMFB, primarily threatened by expansion of commercial agriculture linked to new transport infrastructure that is facilitating access to remote areas. There remain opportunities in the PMFB and elsewhere to develop alternative, more sustainable land‐use practices. Although some of the peatlands in the PMFB fall within existing legally protected areas, this protection does not include the most carbon‐dense (domed pole forest) areas. New carbon‐based conservation instruments (e.g., REDD+, Green Climate Fund), developing markets for sustainable peatland products, transferring land title to local communities, and expanding protected areas offer pathways to increased protection for intact tropical peatlands in Amazonia and elsewhere, such as those in New Guinea and Central Africa which remain, for the moment, broadly beyond the frontier of commercial development.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

Cost‐effective conservation of an endangered frog under uncertainty

How should managers choose among conservation options when resources are scarce and there is uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of actions? Well‐developed tools exist for prioritizing areas for one‐time and binary actions (e.g., protect vs. not protect), but methods for prioritizing incremental or ongoing actions (such as habitat creation and maintenance) remain uncommon. We devised an approach that combines metapopulation viability and cost‐effectiveness analyses to select among alternative conservation actions while accounting for uncertainty. In our study, cost‐effectiveness is the ratio between the benefit of an action and its economic cost, where benefit is the change in metapopulation viability. We applied the approach to the case of the endangered growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis), which is threatened by urban development. We extended a Bayesian model to predict metapopulation viability under 9 urbanization and management scenarios and incorporated the full probability distribution of possible outcomes for each scenario into the cost‐effectiveness analysis. This allowed us to discern between cost‐effective alternatives that were robust to uncertainty and those with a relatively high risk of failure. We found a relatively high risk of extinction following urbanization if the only action was reservation of core habitat; habitat creation actions performed better than enhancement actions; and cost‐effectiveness ranking changed depending on the consideration of uncertainty. Our results suggest that creation and maintenance of wetlands dedicated to L. raniformis is the only cost‐effective action likely to result in a sufficiently low risk of extinction. To our knowledge we are the first study to use Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis to explicitly incorporate parametric and demographic uncertainty into a cost‐effective evaluation of conservation actions. The approach offers guidance to decision makers aiming to achieve cost‐effective conservation under uncertainty.