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1.
Abstract:  One unexpected consequence of natural disturbances in forested areas is that managers often initiate activities that may impose greater ecosystem impacts than the disturbances themselves. By salvage logging areas affected by windstorms or other impacts, by harvesting host trees in advance of insect infestation or disease, or by preemptively harvesting forests in an attempt to improve their resilience to future disturbances and stresses, managers initiate substantial changes in the ecosystem structure and function. Much of this activity is undertaken in the absence of information on the qualitative and quantitative differences between disturbance impacts and harvesting. To provide insight for such decisions we evaluated the ecosystem consequences of two major disturbance processes in New England (U.S.A.)—intense windstorms and invasive pests and pathogens—and contrasted them with impacts from preemptive and salvage harvesting. Despite dramatic physical changes in forest structure resulting from hurricane impacts and insect infestation, little disruption of biogeochemical processes or other ecosystem functions typically follows these disturbances. Indeed, the physical and organic structures produced by these disturbances are important natural features providing habitat and landscape heterogeneity that are often missing due to centuries of land use. From an ecosystem perspective there are strong arguments against preemptive and salvage logging or the attempt through silvicultural means to improve the resistance or resilience of forests to disturbance and stress. There are often valid motivations for salvage or preemptive logging including financial considerations, human safety, and a desire to shape the long-term composition and resource-production characteristics of forests. Nonetheless, there are many ecological benefits derived from leaving forests alone when they are affected or threatened by disturbances and pest and pathogen outbreaks.  相似文献   

2.
Past land use can impart soil legacies that have important implications for ecosystem function. Although these legacies have been linked with microbially mediated processes, little is known about the long-term influence of land use on soil microbial communities themselves. We examined whether historical land use affected soil microbial community composition (lipid profiles) and whether community composition was related to potential net nitrogen (N) mineralization rates in southern Appalachian (USA) forest stands abandoned from agriculture or logging and reforested >50 yr ago. Microbial community composition was determined by a hybrid procedure of phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) and fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) analysis. We found that community composition varied significantly with past land use. Communities in formerly farmed stands had a higher relative abundance of markers for gram-negative bacteria and a lower abundance of markers for fungi compared with previously logged and reference (i.e., no disturbance history) stands. Potential net N mineralization rates were negatively correlated with fungal and gram-negative bacterial markers in both farmed and reference stands, and fungal abundance and soil bulk density effectively predicted mineralization rates in all stands. Our results indicate that the alteration of microbial communities by historical land use may influence the ecosystem processes they mediate. This is in contrast to typical expectations about microbial community resilience to change. Here, the decrease in fungal abundance observed from disturbance appeared to result in decreased nitrogen mineralization over the long term.  相似文献   

3.
Abstract: There is an intense debate about the effects of postfire salvage logging versus nonintervention policies on regeneration of forest communities, but scant information from experimental studies is available. We manipulated a burned forest area on a Mediterranean mountain to experimentally analyze the effect of salvage logging on bird–species abundance, diversity, and assemblage composition. We used a randomized block design with three plots of approximately 25 ha each, established along an elevational gradient in a recently burned area in Sierra Nevada Natural and National Park (southeastern Spain). Three replicates of three treatments differing in postfire burned wood management were established per plot: salvage logging, nonintervention, and an intermediate degree of intervention (felling and lopping most of the trees but leaving all the biomass). Starting 1 year after the fire, we used point sampling to monitor bird abundance in each treatment for 2 consecutive years during the breeding and winter seasons (720 censuses total). Postfire burned‐wood management altered species assemblages. Salvage logged areas had species typical of open‐ and early‐successional habitats. Bird species that inhabit forests were still present in the unsalvaged treatments even though trees were burned, but were almost absent in salvage‐logged areas. Indeed, the main dispersers of mid‐ and late‐successional shrubs and trees, such as thrushes (Turdus spp.) and the European Jay (Garrulus glandarius) were almost restricted to unsalvaged treatments. Salvage logging might thus hamper the natural regeneration of the forest through its impact on assemblages of bird species. Moreover, salvage logging reduced species abundance by 50% and richness by 40%, approximately. The highest diversity at the landscape level (gamma diversity) resulted from a combination of all treatments. Salvage logging may be positive for bird conservation if combined in a mosaic with other, less‐aggressive postfire management, but stand‐wide management with harvest operations has undesirable conservation effects.  相似文献   

4.
Changes in disturbance rates due to climate change may increase or decrease diversity, whereas permanent loss of habitat is generally believed to decrease diversity. It is, however, very likely that the effects of disturbances and habitat destruction interact. Understanding such combined effects is essential to predict the response of communities to global changes and in particular which functional types of species are most endangered. Using an individual-based spatially explicit community model, we investigate (1) whether diversity-disturbance curves alter when spatially uncorrelated or autocorrelated habitat destruction is added, and (2) which functional types of species are able to survive under these altered conditions. Model communities consisted of four functional types of species trading off between colonisation ability and competition strength. We found that habitat destruction may alter both height and shape of diversity-disturbance curves: maximum diversity at intermediate disturbance rates may shift to other disturbance rates or even split into two peaks giving rise to bimodal diversity-disturbance relationships with different sub-communities persisting at low and high disturbance rates. Diversity responded differentially depending on how the colonisation-competition trade-off was represented. Our results suggest that, for trade-offs in seed production rate, generally the best coloniser will better withstand the interacting effects of habitat destruction and changing disturbance rates; however, for trade-offs in mean dispersal distances, functional types characterized by intermediate abilities will perform best. We conclude that predictions of the impacts of changing disturbance rates on biodiversity depend on community structure and cannot be made without knowledge of concurrent permanent habitat destruction.  相似文献   

5.
6.
There has been considerable recent interest in how human-induced species loss affects community and ecosystem properties. These effects are particularly apparent when a commercially valuable species is harvested from an ecosystem, such as occurs through single-tree harvesting or selective logging of desired timber species in natural forests. In New Zealand mixed-species rain forests, single-tree harvesting of the emergent gymnosperm Dacrydium cupressinum, or rimu, has been widespread. This harvesting has been contentious in part because of possible ecological impacts of Dacrydium removal on the remainder of the forest, but many of these effects remain unexplored. We identified an area where an unintended 40-year "removal experiment" had been set up that involved selective extraction of individual Dacrydium trees. We measured aboveground and belowground variables at set distances from both individual live trees and stumps of trees harvested 40 years ago. Live trees had effects both above and below ground by affecting diversity and cover of several components of the vegetation (usually negatively), promoting soil C sequestration, enhancing ratios of soil C:P and N:P, and affecting community structure of soil microflora. These effects extended to 8 m from the tree base and were likely caused by poor-quality litter and humus produced by the trees. Measurements for the stumps revealed strong legacy effects of prior presence of trees on some properties (e.g., cover by understory herbs and ferns, soil C sequestration, soil C:P and N:P ratios), but not others (e.g., soil fungal biomass, soil N concentration). These results suggest that the legacy of prior presence of Dacrydium may remain for several decades or centuries, and certainly well over 40 years. They also demonstrate that, while large Dacrydium individuals (and their removal) may have important effects in their immediate proximity, within a forest, these effects should only be important in localized patches containing high densities of large trees. Finally, this study emphasizes that deliberate extraction of a particular tree species from a forest can exert influences both above and below ground if the removed species has a different functional role than that of the other plant species present.  相似文献   

7.
Abstract:  Studies of the effects of logging on Lepidoptera rarely address landscape-level effects or effects on larval, leaf-feeding stages. We examined the impacts of uneven-aged and even-aged logging on the abundance, richness, and community structure of leaf-chewing insects of white ( Quercus alba L.) and black ( Q. velutina L.) oak trees remaining in unharvested areas by sampling 3 years before and 7 years after harvest. After harvest, white oaks in uneven-aged sites had 32% fewer species of leaf-chewing insects than control sites. This reduction in species richness may have resulted from changes in microclimate (reducing plant quality and/or changing leaf phenology) that affected a much larger total area of each site than did even-aged cuts. For black oak after harvest, species richness in uneven- and even-aged sites increased relative to levels before harvest. Harvesting did not alter total insect density or community structure in the unlogged habitat for either oak species with one exception: insect density on black oak increased in the oldest forest block. Community structure of herbivores of black and white oaks in clearcut gaps differed from that of oaks in intact areas of even-aged sites. Furthermore, both richness and total insect density of black oaks were reduced in clearcut gaps. We suggest that low-level harvests alter herbivore species richness at the landscape level. Treatment effects were subtle because we sampled untreated areas of logged landscapes, only one harvest had occurred, and large temporal and spatial variation in abundance and richness existed. Although the effects of logging were greater in uneven-aged sites, the effects of even-aged management are likely to increase as harvesting continues.  相似文献   

8.
Loranthaceous mistletoes are interesting because of their complex dependence on suitable host trees and avian dispersers and because of their patchy distribution at the landscape level. Although their over- and under-abundance in Australia and New Zealand have been widely documented, little attention has been given to the need for an ecosystem approach to their management. Although the current status of mistletoes is very different in Australia and New Zealand, some of the causal factors and the long-term effects of changes in mistletoe abundance are similar in the two countries. We suggest that mistletoe abundance in pre-European landscapes was dependent on a series of evolutionary and environmental filters relating to host specificity, pollination, dispersal, infection, environmental habitat quality, predation, and disturbance. European settlement modified these filters in a number of ways, resulting in either increases or decreases in mistletoe abundance. The three broad groups of changes that have occurred with European settlement involve fragmentation, predation, and altered disturbance regimes. Although managers have usually addressed mistletoe over- or under-abundance with short-term solutions (e.g., pruning infected trees), we suggest that management must address the underlying causes of the problems involving mistletoes. This requires an ecosystem approach to management that addresses both the direct and indirect causes of the current status of mistletoes.  相似文献   

9.
Abstract:  Small-scale, local disturbance of tropical forests, for example from selective logging, is widespread, but its effects on biodiversity and ecosystem function have rarely been studied. In 3 East African tropical rainforests, we investigated the effect of different levels of local forest disturbance on the frugivore community and on tree visitation and fruit removal rates of the small-seeded tree Celtis durandii. We quantified birds and primates in little and heavily disturbed sites, distinguishing between forest specialists, forest generalists, and forest visitors. We quantified frugivorous tree visitors and seed removal rates of C. durandii trees in the same sites. Forest disturbance reduced the species richness and density of the frugivore community and of forest specialists. Frugivorous species and individuals visiting the study trees were reduced significantly, which led to a marginally significant decline in fruit removal by all frugivores and a significant reduction in removal by forest specialists. Reduction in fruit removal by forest specialists was not compensated for by increases in removal by forest generalists or visitors. Results did not differ among the 3 rainforests, which suggests they were consistent at a regional scale. So local forest disturbance led to a loss of frugivores and their seed removal services. This suggests that large-seeded tree species and trees with small fruits are losing seed dispersers. Thus, local forest disturbance appears to have a more general negative impact on frugivores and their seed dispersal services than anticipated previously.  相似文献   

10.
Fire, elephants, and frost are important disturbance factors in many African savannas, but the relative magnitude of their effects on vegetation and their interactions have not been quantified. Understanding how disturbance shapes savanna structure and composition is critical for predicting changes in tree cover and for formulating management and conservation policy. A simulation model was used to investigate how the disturbance regime determines vegetation structure and composition in a mixed Kalahari sand woodland savanna in western Zimbabwe. The model consisted of submodels for tree growth, tree damage caused by disturbance, mortality, and recruitment that were parameterized from field data collected over a two-year period. The model predicts that, under the current disturbance regime, tree basal area in the study area will decline by two-thirds over the next two decades and become dominated by species unpalatable to elephants. Changes in the disturbance regime are predicted to greatly modify vegetation structure and community composition. Elephants are the primary drivers of woodland change in this community at present-day population densities, and their impacts are exacerbated by the effects of fire and frost. Frost, in particular, does not play an important role when acting independently but appears to be a key secondary factor in the presence of elephants and/or fire. Unlike fire and frost, which cannot suppress the woodland phase on their own in this ecosystem, elephants can independently drive the vegetation to the scrub phase. The results suggest that elephant and fire management may be critical for the persistence of certain woodland communities within dry-season elephant habitats in the eastern Kalahari, particularly those dominated by Brachystegia spiciformis and other palatable species.  相似文献   

11.
Land use change, natural disturbance, and climate change directly alter ecosystem productivity and carbon stock level. The estimation of ecosystem carbon dynamics depends on the quality of land cover change data and the effectiveness of the ecosystem models that represent the vegetation growth processes and disturbance effects. We used the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and a set of 30- to 60-m resolution fire and land cover change data to examine the carbon changes of California's forests, shrublands, and grasslands. Simulation results indicate that during 1951-2000, the net primary productivity (NPP) increased by 7%, from 72.2 to 77.1 Tg C yr−1 (1 teragram = 1012 g), mainly due to CO2 fertilization, since the climate hardly changed during this period. Similarly, heterotrophic respiration increased by 5%, from 69.4 to 73.1 Tg C yr−1, mainly due to increased forest soil carbon and temperature. Net ecosystem production (NEP) was highly variable in the 50-year period but on average equalled 3.0 Tg C yr−1 (total of 149 Tg C). As with NEP, the net biome production (NBP) was also highly variable but averaged −0.55 Tg C yr−1 (total of -27.3 Tg C) because NBP in the 1980s was very low (-5.34 Tg C yr−1). During the study period, a total of 126 Tg carbon were removed by logging and land use change, and 50 Tg carbon were directly removed by wildland fires. For carbon pools, the estimated total living upper canopy (tree) biomass decreased from 928 to 834 Tg C, and the understory (including shrub and grass) biomass increased from 59 to 63 Tg C. Soil carbon and dead biomass carbon increased from 1136 to 1197 Tg C.Our analyses suggest that both natural and human processes have significant influence on the carbon change in California. During 1951-2000, climate interannual variability was the key driving force for the large interannual changes of ecosystem carbon source and sink at the state level, while logging and fire were the dominant driving forces for carbon balances in several specific ecoregions. From a long-term perspective, CO2 fertilization plays a key role in maintaining higher NPP. However, our study shows that the increase in C sequestration by CO2 fertilization is largely offset by logging/land use change and wildland fires.  相似文献   

12.
Abstract: In Canada and the United States pressure to recoup financial costs of wildfire by harvesting burned timber is increasing, despite insufficient understanding of the ecological consequences of postfire salvage logging. We compared the species richness and composition of deadwood‐associated beetle assemblages among undisturbed, recently burned, logged, and salvage‐logged, boreal, mixed‐wood stands. Species richness was lowest in salvage‐logged stands, largely due to a negative effect of harvesting on the occurrence of wood‐ and bark‐boring species. In comparison with undisturbed stands, the combination of wildfire and logging in salvage‐logged stands had a greater effect on species composition than either disturbance alone. Strong differences in species composition among stand treatments were linked to differences in quantity and quality (e.g., decay stage) of coarse woody debris. We found that the effects of wildfire and logging on deadwood‐associated beetles were synergistic, such that the effects of postfire salvage logging could not be predicted reliably on the basis of data on either disturbance alone. Thus, increases in salvage logging of burned forests may have serious negative consequences for deadwood‐associated beetles and their ecological functions in early postfire successional forests.  相似文献   

13.
Unpredictable or variable ecosystem recovery from disturbance presents a challenge to conservation, particularly as the scale of human disturbance continues to increase. Theory suggests land-cover and disturbance characteristics affect recovery, but individual studies of disturbance and recovery frequently struggle to uncover generalizable patterns because of high levels of site-specific variation. To understand how land-cover, disturbance type, and disturbance duration influence ecosystem recovery, we used studies documenting recovery of 50 streams to perform a global meta-analysis of stream recovery from disturbances that affect water quality (e.g., oil spill, fire, wastewater). We extracted upstream natural and urban land-cover percentages for each site and performed model selection and averaging to identify influences on recovery completeness. Most streams improved following the end of a disturbance (median 240% of disturbed condition) but did not recover fully to baseline predisturbance condition within the studied period (median study period 2 years; median recovery 60% of baseline). Scale of disturbance in time and space did not predict recovery, but sites with higher percentages of upstream natural land cover had less complete recovery relative to sites with more urban or agricultural cover, possibly due to higher baseline conditions in these streams. Our findings suggest impacts to systems with low anthropogenic stress may be more irreversible than impacts to already modified systems. We call for more long-term evaluations of ecosystem response to disturbance and the inclusion of regional references and predisturbance reference conditions for comparison. A more thorough understanding of the role of the surrounding landscape in shaping stream response to disturbance can help managers calibrate expectations for recovery and prioritize protection.  相似文献   

14.
Carey MP  Wahl DH 《Ecology》2010,91(10):2965-2974
Aquatic communities have been altered by invasive species, with impacts on native biodiversity and ecosystem function. At the same time, native biodiversity may mitigate the effects of an invader. Common carp (Cyprinus carpio) is a ubiquitous, invasive fish species that strongly influences community and ecosystem processes. We used common carp to test whether the potential effects of an invasive species are altered across a range of species diversity in native communities. In mesocosms, treatments of zero, one, three, and six native fish species were used to represent the nested subset patterns observed in fish communities of lakes in Illinois, USA. The effect of the invader was tested across fish richness treatments by adding common carp to the native community and substituting native biomass with common carp. Native species and intraspecific effects reduced invader growth. The invader reduced native fish growth; however, the negative effect was minimized with increasing native richness. The zooplankton grazer community was modified by a top-down effect from the invader that increased the amount of phytoplankton. Neither the invader nor richness treatments influenced total phosphorus or community metabolism. Overall, the invader reduced resources for native species; and the effect scaled with how the invader was incorporated into the community. Higher native diversity mitigated the impact of the invader, confirming the need to consider biodiversity when predicting the impacts of invasive species.  相似文献   

15.
Recent conceptual advances address forest response to multiple disturbances within a brief time period, providing an ideal framework for examining the consequences of natural disturbances followed by anthropogenic management activities. The combination of two or more disturbances in a short period may produce "ecological surprises," and models predict a threshold of cumulative disturbance severity above which forest composition will be drastically altered and regeneration may be impaired. Salvage logging (the harvesting of timber after natural disturbances; also called "salvaging" or "sanitary logging") is common, but there have been no tests of the manner in which salvaging after natural wind disturbance affects woody plant regeneration. Here we present findings from three years after a moderate-severity wind disturbance in west-central Tennessee, USA. We compare two unsalvaged sites and two sites that had intermediate-intensity salvaging. Our approach demonstrates the calculation of cumulative severity measures, which combine natural windthrow severity and anthropogenic tree cutting and removal, on a plot-by-plot basis. Seedling/sapling density and species richness were not influenced by cumulative disturbance severity, but species diversity showed a marginal increase with increasing cumulative severity. The amount of compositional change (from predisturbance trees to post-disturbance seedlings/saplings) increased significantly with cumulative severity of disturbance but showed no evidence of thresholds within the severity range examined. Overall, few deleterious changes were evident in these sites. Moderate-severity natural disturbances followed by moderate-intensity salvaging may have little detrimental effect on forest regeneration and diversity in these systems; the ecological surprises and threshold compositional change are more likely after combinations of natural and anthropogenic disturbances that have a much greater cumulative severity.  相似文献   

16.
Disturbance, Diversity, and Invasion: Implications for Conservation   总被引:38,自引:0,他引:38  
Disturbance is an important component of many ecosystems, and variations in disturbance regime can affect ecosystem and community structure and functioning. The "intermediate disturbance hypothesis" suggests that species diversity should be highest at moderate levels of disturbance. However, disturbance is also known to increase the invasibility of communities. Disturbance therefore poses an important problem for conservation management, Here, we review the effects of disturbances such as fire grazing, soil disturbance and nutrient addition on plant species diversity and invasion with particular emphasis on grassland vegetation. Individual components of the disturbance regime can have marked effects on species diversity, but it is often modifications of the existing regime that have the largest influence. Similarly, disturbance can enhance invasion of natural communities, but frequently it is the interaction between different disturbances that has the largest effect. The natural disturbance regime is now unlikely to persist within conservation areas since fragmentation and human intervention have usually modified physical and biotic conditions. Active management decisions must now be made on what disturbance regime is required and this requires decisions on what species are to be encouraged or discouraged.  相似文献   

17.
Humans influence tropical rainforest animals directly via exploitation and indirectly via habitat disturbance. Bushmeat hunting and logging occur extensively in tropical forests and have large effects on particular species. But how they alter animal diversity across landscape scales and whether their impacts are correlated across species remain less known. We used spatially widespread measurements of mammal occurrence across Malaysian Borneo and recently developed multispecies hierarchical models to assess the species richness of medium‐ to large‐bodied terrestrial mammals while accounting for imperfect detection of all species. Hunting was associated with 31% lower species richness. Moreover, hunting remained high even where richness was very low, highlighting that hunting pressure persisted even in chronically overhunted areas. Newly logged sites had 11% lower species richness than unlogged sites, but sites logged >10 years previously had richness levels similar to those in old‐growth forest. Hunting was a more serious long‐term threat than logging for 91% of primate and ungulate species. Hunting and logging impacts across species were not correlated across taxa. Negative impacts of hunting were the greatest for common mammalian species, but commonness versus rarity was not related to species‐specific impacts of logging. Direct human impacts appeared highly persistent and lead to defaunation of certain areas. These impacts were particularly severe for species of ecological importance as seed dispersers and herbivores. Indirect impacts were also strong but appeared to attenuate more rapidly than previously thought. The lack of correlation between direct and indirect impacts across species highlights that multifaceted conservation strategies may be needed for mammal conservation in tropical rainforests, Earth's most biodiverse ecosystems. Correlación y Persistencia de los Impactos de la Caza y la Tala sobre los Mamíferos de los Bosques Tropicales  相似文献   

18.
The North Atlantic portunid crab Carcinus maenas (Linnaeus, 1758) has invaded the North Pacific Ocean following more than two centuries of global dispersal due to human activities. C. maenas was first collected in San Francisco Bay, California, in 1989–1990, where its distribution and prey selectivity were investigated in 1992–1994. It has become abundant in shallow, warm lagoons (which as favorable and retentive microhabitats may have served as invasion incubators) and spread throughout the north, central and south bays. It may have arrived in ballast water, on fouled ships, amongst algae with imported live bait or lobsters, or by intentional release; genetic comparisons of the Bay population with possible source populations may aid in defining the transport mechanism. C. maenas' eurytopic nature, its high breeding potential, and its diet and feeding behavior suggest the potential for extensive ecosystem alterations through predator-prey interactions, competition, disturbance, and indirect effects. Although both negative economic impacts through reduction or disruption of fisheries and positive impacts of providing bait and human-food fisheries have been documented in a few regions, the potential economic impacts in San Francisco Bay remain largely unknown.  相似文献   

19.
植被恢复的生态效应研究进展   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
胡婵娟  郭雷 《生态环境》2012,(9):1640-1646
植被在水土保持、水源涵养及生态系统的固碳过程中起着重要的作用。植被恢复是指运用生态学原理,通过保护现有植被、封山育林或营造人工林、灌、草植被,修复或重建被毁坏或被破坏的森林和其他自然生态系统,恢复其生物多样性及其生态系统功能。目前,植被的自然及人工恢复是改善脆弱生态系统及退化生态系统生态环境现状最有效的措施。植被在恢复过程中对地上植被生态系统,物种多样性的恢复有着重要影响,同时通过凋落物及根系的输入,可以有效改善地下生态系统,增加土壤的养分含量、改善土壤的物理结构、增加土壤生物的生物量及活性。文章以地上及地下生态系统为出发点,综述了植被恢复过程中自然及人工恢复过程中不同的植被类型、不同的恢复时间下植物物种组成和多样性、土壤理化性质及土壤微生物群落的变化。植被的自然及人工恢复在一定程度上均能增加植物物种的多样性,随着恢复年限的增加物种的组成发生改变且多样性呈增加趋势,但一些特殊环境下不当的人工恢复可造成植被演替向退化方向发展,降低生物多样性。不同的植被类型由于其生长方式的不同对土壤理化性质和土壤微生物的影响存在差异,随着恢复年限的增长,土壤理化指标及微生物学指标呈现先增加而后趋于平稳的状态。针对已有的研究进展,提出在未来的研究过程中,一方面应该增加更多的对比研究,对不同环境下,不同的恢复物种,不同的恢复方式进行更深入地探讨;另外一方面应增加不同尺度的研究,现有的研究多集中在样地尺度,未来应在更大尺度上进行分析;再者,地上及地下生态系统之间的相互关系及影响机理一直是土壤学科研究的热点,植被恢复过程中应增加更多该方面的机理研究。  相似文献   

20.
Abstract:  We evaluated the utility of combining metapopulation models with landscape-level forest-dynamics models to assess the sustainability of forest management practices. We used the Brown Creeper ( Certhia americana ) in the boreal forests of northern Ontario as a case study. We selected the Brown Creeper as a potential indicator of sustainability because it is relatively common in the region but is dependent on snags and old trees for nesting and foraging; hence, it may be sensitive to timber harvesting. For the modeling we used RAMAS Landscape, a software package that integrates RAMAS GIS, population-modeling software, and LANDIS, forest-dynamics modeling software. Predictions about the future floristic composition and structure of the landscape under a variety of management and natural disturbance scenarios were derived using LANDIS. We modeled eight alternative forest management scenarios, ranging in intensity from no timber harvesting and a natural fire regime to intensive timber harvesting with salvage logging after fire. We predicted the response of the Brown Creeper metapopulation over a 160-year period and used future population size and expected minimum population size to compare the sustainability of the various management scenarios. The modeling methods were easy to apply and model predictions were sensitive to the differences among management scenarios, indicating that these methods may be useful for assessing and ranking the sustainability of forest management options. Primary concerns about the method are the practical difficulties associated with incorporating fire stochasticity in prediction uncertainty and the number of model assumptions that must be made and tested with sensitivity analysis. We wrote new software to help quantify the contribution of landscape stochasticity to model prediction uncertainty.  相似文献   

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