Assessing the Value of the Umbrella‐Species Concept for Conservation Planning with Meta‐Analysis

Abstract: The umbrella‐species concept, which suggests that conservation strategies designed for one species may benefit co‐occurring species, has been promoted as a framework for conservation planning. Nevertheless, there has been considerable variation in the outcome of empirical tests of this concept that has led researchers to question its value, so we used data from 15 published studies in a meta‐analysis to evaluate whether conservation of putative umbrella species also conserves co‐occurring species. We tested the effectiveness of putative umbrella species categorized by taxonomic group, taxonomic similarity to co‐occurring species, body size, generality of resource use, and trophic level to evaluate criteria proposed to guide the selection of umbrella species. We compared species richness and number of individuals (by species and higher taxonomic group) between sites with and without putative umbrella species to test whether more co‐occurring species were present in greater abundances when the area or resource needs of umbrella species were met. Species richness and abundance of co‐occurring species were consistently higher in sites where umbrella species were present than where they were not and for conservation schemes with avian than with mammalian umbrella species. There were no differences in species richness or species abundance with resource generalist or specialist umbrella species or based on taxonomic similarity of umbrella and co‐occurring species. Taxonomic group abundance was higher in across‐taxonomic umbrella species schemes than when umbrella species were of the same taxon as co‐occurring species. Co‐occurring species had similar, or higher, species richness with small‐bodied umbrella species relative to larger‐bodied umbrella species. The only significant difference among umbrella species categorized by trophic level was that species richness was higher with omnivorous than it was with carnivorous avian umbrella species. Our results suggest there is merit to the umbrella‐species concept for conservation, but they do not support the use of the criteria we used to identify umbrella species.     

Selection of Multiple Umbrella Species for Functional and Taxonomic Diversity to Represent Urban Biodiversity

Surrogates, such as umbrella species, are commonly used to reduce the complexity of quantifying biodiversity for conservation purposes. The presence of umbrella species is often indicative of high taxonomic diversity; however, functional diversity is now recognized as an important metric for biodiversity and thus should be considered when choosing umbrella species. We identified umbrella species associated with high taxonomic and functional biodiversity in urban areas in Switzerland. We analyzed 39,752 individuals of 574 animal species from 96 study plots and 1397 presences of 262 plant species from 58 plots. Thirty‐one biodiversity measures of 7 taxonomic groups (plants, spiders, bees, ground beetles, lady bugs, weevils and birds) were included in within‐ and across‐taxa analyses. Sixteen measures were taxonomical (species richness and species diversity), whereas 15 were functional (species traits including mobility, resource use, and reproduction). We used indicator value analysis to identify umbrella species associated with single or multiple biodiversity measures. Many umbrella species were indicators of high biodiversity within their own taxonomic group (from 33.3% in weevils to 93.8% in birds), to a lesser extent they were indicators across taxa. Principal component analysis revealed that umbrella species for multiple measures of biodiversity represented different aspects of biodiversity, especially with respect to measures of taxonomic and functional diversity. Thus, even umbrella species for multiple measures of biodiversity were complementary in the biodiversity aspects they represented. Thus, the choice of umbrella species based solely on taxonomic diversity is questionable and may not represent biodiversity comprehensively. Our results suggest that, depending on conservation priorities, managers should choose multiple and complementary umbrella species to assess the state of biodiversity. Selección de Múltiples Especies Paraguas para la Diversidad Funcional y Taxonómica para Representar la Biodiversidad Urbana     

Application of the Red‐List Index at a National Level for Multiple Species Groups

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Index (RLI) is recognized as one of the key indicators of trends in the status of species. The red‐list assessment done by Finnish authorities of species in Finland is taxonomically one of the most extensive national assessments. We used the Finnish Red Lists from 2000 and 2010 to calculate for the first time the national RLIs for 11 taxonomic groups at different trophic levels and with different life cycles. The red‐list index is calculated on the basis of changes in red‐list categories and indicates trends in the status of biological diversity of sets of species. The RLI value ranges from 0 to 1. The lower the value the faster the set of species is heading toward extinction. If the value is 1, all species in the set are least concern and if the value is 0, all species are (regionally) extinct. The overall RLI of Finnish species decreased. This means that, in Finland, these taxonomic groups were heading toward extinction faster in 2010 than in 2000. Of the analyzed groups of organisms, RLIs of 5 decreased and RLIs of 6 increased. At the national level, the RLIs and status trends varied markedly between species groups. Thus, we concluded that generalizations on the basis of RLIs of a few taxa only may yield a biased view of ongoing trends in the status of biological diversity at the species level. In addition, one overall RLI that includes many different species groups may also be misleading if variation in RLI among species groups is not considered and if RLI values are not presented separately for each group. Aplicación del Índice de la Lista Roja a Nivel Nacional para Grupos de Especies Múltiples     

Taxonomic Exaggeration and Its Effects on Orchid Conservation

Abstract:  Orchids are the largest family of flowering plants, encompassing several times as many species as birds or mammals. Because of their diversity, charisma, and threats from overcollection and habitat loss, they are a key group in conservation. Nevertheless, preservation of this group is plagued by taxonomic problems, particularly in Europe, where new taxa are actively being described. We used a checklist of orchids to compare the taxonomic treatment of this family between Europe and neighboring areas to search for geographical patterns. Numbers of invalid, infraspecific, and hybrid names are significantly higher in Europe than in surrounding areas. Recognition of numerous and poorly circumscribed orchid taxa is a serious obstacle to their conservation because rare, poorly defined species may be prioritized for conservation over taxonomically "good" species. This phenomenon may be the result of the popularity of orchids in Europe. We believe that more taxonomic effort should be made in other areas of the world (e.g., the tropics) and on less charismatic groups.     

Taxonomic Considerations in Listing Subspecies Under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Abstract:  The U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) allows listing of subspecies and other groupings below the rank of species. This provides the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Marine Fisheries Service with a means to target the most critical unit in need of conservation. Although roughly one-quarter of listed taxa are subspecies, these management agencies are hindered by uncertainties about taxonomic standards during listing or delisting activities. In a review of taxonomic publications and societies, we found few subspecies lists and none that stated standardized criteria for determining subspecific taxa. Lack of criteria is attributed to a centuries-old debate over species and subspecies concepts. Nevertheless, the critical need to resolve this debate for ESA listings led us to propose that minimal biological criteria to define disjunct subspecies (legally or taxonomically) should include the discreteness and significance criteria of distinct population segments (as defined under the ESA). Our subspecies criteria are in stark contrast to that proposed by supporters of the phylogenetic species concept and provide a clear distinction between species and subspecies. Efforts to eliminate or reduce ambiguity associated with subspecies-level classifications will assist with ESA listing decisions. Thus, we urge professional taxonomic societies to publish and periodically update peer-reviewed species and subspecies lists. This effort must be paralleled throughout the world for efficient taxonomic conservation to take place.     

Priority Wetland Invertebrates as Conservation Surrogates

Abstract: Invertebrates are important functionally in most ecosystems, but seldom appraised as surrogate indicators of biological diversity. Priority species might be good candidates; thus, here we evaluated whether three freshwater invertebrates listed in the U.K. Biodiversity Action Plan indicated the richness, composition, and conservation importance of associated wetland organisms as defined respectively by their alpha diversity, beta diversity, and threat status. Sites occupied by each of the gastropods Segmentina nitida, Anisus vorticulus, and Valvata macrostoma had greater species richness of gastropods and greater conservation importance than other sites. Each also characterized species assemblages associated with significant variations between locations in alpha or beta diversity among other mollusks and aquatic macrophytes. Because of their distinct resource requirements, conserving the three priority species extended the range of wetland types under management for nature conservation by 18% and the associated gastropod niche‐space by around 33%. Although nonpriority species indicated variations in richness, composition, and conservation importance among other organisms as effectively as priority species, none characterized such a wide range of high‐quality wetland types. We conclude that priority invertebrates are no more effective than nonpriority species as indicators of alpha and beta diversity or conservation importance among associated organisms. Nevertheless, conserving priority species can extend the array of distinct environments that are protected for their specialized biodiversity and environmental quality. We suggest that this is a key role for priority species and conservation surrogates more generally, and, on our evidence, can best be delivered through multiple species with contrasting habitat requirements.     

Metrics for quantifying how much different threats contribute to red lists of species and ecosystems

Red lists are a crucial tool for the management of threatened species and ecosystems. Among the information red lists provide, the threats affecting the listed species or ecosystem, such as pollution or hunting, are of special relevance. This information can be used to quantify the relative contribution of different threat factors to biodiversity loss by disaggregating the cumulative extinction risk across species into components that can be attributed to certain threats. We devised and compared 3 metrics that accomplish this and may be used as indicators. The first metric calculates the portion of the temporal change in red list index (RLI) values that is caused by each threat. The second metric attributes the deviation of an RLI value from its reference value to different threats. The third metric uses extinction probabilities that are inferred from red list categories to estimate the contribution of a threat to the expected loss of species or ecosystems within 50 years. We used data from Norwegian Red Lists to test and evaluate these metrics. The first metric captured only a minor portion of the biodiversity loss caused by threats because it ignores species whose red list category does not change. Management authorities will often be interested in the contribution of a given threat to the total deviation from the optimal state. This was measured by the remaining metrics. The second metric was best suited for comparisons across countries or taxonomic groups. The third metric conveyed the same information but uses numbers of species or ecosystem as its unit, which is likely more intuitive to lay people and may be preferred when communicating with stakeholders or the general public.     

Potential Reflection of Distinct Ecological Units in Plant Endemism Categories

Abstract: The level of endemism at a site may indicate species richness of the site. Nevertheless, assessing endemism levels in taxonomic groups such as plants may be difficult because the species richness of plants is high relative to species richness of other taxonomic groups (e.g., vertebrates). A major problem in determining whether plant species are endemic is the lack of standardization of the geographic extent of endemism: species are considered endemic to, for example, countries, continents, or states. We compiled a history of the concept of endemism as it applies to plants. The application of the concept to geographic distribution dates from the 19th century, when European explorers discovered many taxa exclusive to regions outside Europe. Two types of endemism, paleoendemism and neoendemism, were then acknowledged, according to evolutionary age, and these categories are still in use. In the 20th century, most of the research on endemism focused on explaining range restriction on the basis of cytological data, edaphic and geological factors, and phylogeny. This research led to a vast number of concepts, of which only edaphic endemism remains relatively well accepted. More recently, researchers suggest that competition may determine endemism in some cases. We suggest that plants be labeled as endemic only if their distribution occurs in a distinct ecological unit, such as a biome. On the basis of a literature review of the factors that cause range restriction, we categorized endemic taxa as paleoendemic, neoendemic, edaphically endemic, or suppressed endemic. For example, Schlechtendalia luzulifolia, is a rare forb that is a paleoendemic species of the granite and sandstone‐based grasslands of the Pampa. Levels of endemism in southern Brazilian grasslands are poorly known. We emphasize the importance of recognizing these grasslands as a single transnational biome so that levels of endemism of species therein can be assessed correctly.     

A Generic Impact-Scoring System Applied to Alien Mammals in Europe

Abstract: We present a generic scoring system that compares the impact of alien species among members of large taxonomic groups. This scoring can be used to identify the most harmful alien species so that conservation measures to ameliorate their negative effects can be prioritized. For all alien mammals in Europe, we assessed impact reports as completely as possible. Impact was classified as either environmental or economic. We subdivided each of these categories into five subcategories (environmental: impact through competition, predation, hybridization, transmission of disease, and herbivory; economic: impact on agriculture, livestock, forestry, human health, and infrastructure). We assigned all impact reports to one of these 10 categories. All categories had impact scores that ranged from zero (minimal) to five (maximal possible impact at a location). We summed all impact scores for a species to calculate "potential impact" scores. We obtained "actual impact" scores by multiplying potential impact scores by the percentage of area occupied by the respective species in Europe. Finally, we correlated species’ ecological traits with the derived impact scores. Alien mammals from the orders Rodentia, Artiodactyla, and Carnivora caused the highest impact. In particular, the brown rat (Rattus norvegicus), muskrat (Ondathra zibethicus), and sika deer (Cervus nippon) had the highest overall scores. Species with a high potential environmental impact also had a strong potential economic impact. Potential impact also correlated with the distribution of a species in Europe. Ecological flexibility (measured as number of different habitats a species occupies) was strongly related to impact. The scoring system was robust to uncertainty in knowledge of impact and could be adjusted with weight scores to account for specific value systems of particular stakeholder groups (e.g., agronomists or environmentalists). Finally, the scoring system is easily applicable and adaptable to other taxonomic groups.     

Reliability of Indicators of Decline in Abundance

Abstract: Although there are many indicators of endangerment (i.e., whether populations or species meet criteria that justify conservation action), their reliability has rarely been tested. Such indicators may fail to identify that a population or species meets criteria for conservation action (false negative) or may incorrectly show that such criteria have been met (false positive). To quantify the rate of both types of error for 20 commonly used indicators of declining abundance (threat indicators), we used receiver operating characteristic curves derived from historical (1938–2007) data for 18 sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations in the Fraser River, British Columbia, Canada. We retrospectively determined each population's yearly status (reflected by change in abundance over time) on the basis of each indicator. We then compared that population's status in a given year with the status in subsequent years (determined by the magnitude of decline in abundance across those years). For each sockeye population, we calculated how often each indicator of past status matched subsequent status. No single threat indicator provided error‐free estimates of status, but indicators that reflected the extent (i.e., magnitude) of past decline in abundance (through comparison of current abundance with some historical baseline abundance) tended to better reflect status in subsequent years than the rate of decline over the previous 3 generations (a widely used indicator). We recommend that when possible, the reliability of various threat indicators be evaluated with empirical analyses before such indicators are used to determine the need for conservation action. These indicators should include estimates from the entire data set to take into account a historical baseline.     

From Red Lists to Species of Conservation Concern

Abstract:  National red lists of threatened animal and plant species prepared according to the criteria of the World Conservation Union (IUCN) adequately reflect the extinction risk of species within a country but cannot be used directly to set conservation priorities. In particular, the significance of national populations for the conservation of the species as a whole is not taken into account. We present a procedure that can be used to assess national responsibility based on the national red-list status of a species, the international importance of the national population, and the species' "historical rarity" status. We distinguished five responsibility classes for breeding birds: B1, threatened species with internationally important populations in Switzerland; B2, threatened species with internationally less important populations; B3, nonthreatened species with internationally important populations; B4, nonthreatened species with internationally less important populations; and B5, species that have never been common in Switzerland. Two responsibility classes were distinguished for birds occurring in Switzerland as visitors: G1, species with large concentrations in Switzerland and an unfavorable conservation status in Europe, and G2, species with large concentrations in Switzerland and a favorable conservation status in Europe. Two additional classes (G3 and G4) for visiting species occurring in internationally less important numbers are possible but were not analyzed in detail. Responsibility classes B1, B2, B3, G1, and G2 were defined as species of national conservation concern. We developed the method for birds in Switzerland, but it can be used in other countries and for other taxonomic groups as well. It is particularly suitable where national red lists are established according to IUCN guidelines.     

Effects of Economic Prosperity on Numbers of Threatened Species

Abstract: We used data from over 100 countries to investigate the link between numbers of threatened species and per-capita gross national product. We corrected for factors that might otherwise confound such a relationship. Our study was motivated by the continuing debate over the relationship between environmental degradation and per-capita income. Proponents of the environmental Kuznets-curve hypothesis argue that although environmental degradation may increase initially, increases in per-capita income will eventually result in greater environmental quality. Theoretical objections and the lack of widespread empirical evidence recently have thrown doubt on the existence of such a pattern. Treating threat to biodiversity as one potential indicator of environmental degradation, we divided threatened species into seven taxonomic groups ( plants, mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, fishes, and invertebrates) and analyzed each group separately. Count-data regression analysis indicated that the number of threatened species was related to per-capita gross national product in five of seven taxonomic groups. Birds were the only taxonomic group in which numbers of threatened species decreased throughout the range of developed countries' per-capita gross national product. Plants, amphibians, reptiles, and invertebrates showed increasing numbers of threatened species throughout this same range. If these relationships hold, increasing numbers of species from several taxonomic groups are likely to be threatened with extinction as countries increase in prosperity. A key challenge is to understand the interactions among consumer preferences, biology, and institutions that lead to the relationship observed for birds and to see whether this knowledge can be applied to conservation of other taxa.     

Utility of Mitochondrial DNA Barcodes in Species Conservation

Abstract:  Molecular tools are a standard part of many conservation studies and can be informative at many different levels of analysis, although there are inherent limitations and strengths of different genes or parts of genes to inform specific questions. Animal DNA barcodes, 600- to 800-base-pair segments of the mitochondrial gene cytochrome oxidase I, have been proposed as a means to quantify global biodiversity. Although mitochondrial (mt) DNA has a long history of use at the species level, recent analyses suggest that the use of a single gene, particularly mitochondrial, is unlikely to yield data that are balanced, universally acceptable, or sufficient in taxonomic scope to recognize many species lineages. Mitochondrial and nuclear genomes have different patterns of evolution and modes of inheritance, which can result in very different assessments of biodiversity. The ramifications of choosing a particular definition of species (species concept) need to be carefully considered because current efforts have designated DNA barcodes as the universal species concept without demonstrating its superiority over preexisting concepts. The results of such a barcoding paradigm may include a failure to recognize significant portions of biodiversity or nuclear/mitochondrial mixed lineages and could spuriously focus conservation resources on populations with relatively minor mtDNA divergence. DNA barcodes are most likely to provide potentially useful information for groups that are already well studied, and such taxa do not constitute the majority of biodiversity or those in most need of research attention. DNA barcode-length sequences are an important source of data but, when used alone or out of context, may offer only a fraction of the information needed to characterize species while taking resources from broader studies that could produce information essential to robust and informed conservation decisions.     

Conservation Status as a Biodiversity Trend Indicator: Recommendations from a Decade of Listing Species at Risk in British Columbia

Abstract:  Species conservation status is commonly used as a broad-scale indicator of the state of biological diversity. To learn about its value for tracking trends, we examined provincial lists of terrestrial vertebrate species and subspecies at risk in British Columbia, Canada, for 1992 and 2002 to see whether changes in these lists reflected changes in the status of the taxa they represent. Examination of the case histories of individual species and subspecies showed that 65% of additions and deletions to the British Columbia Red List were the result of improvement in knowledge of species status, changes in assessment procedures, and refinements in taxonomy rather than actual changes in a species' status. Comparison to an alternate set of rank scores provided by NatureServe for taxa that appeared on both 1992 and 2002 British Columbia Red Lists revealed changes in status that were not reflected by movement from the list. Estimates of historical conservation status for species on the 1992 British Columbia Red List demonstrated ambiguity around the natural baseline with regard to tracking changes in list composition over time. We discourage the continued use of indicators based solely on conservation status as a means of tracking biodiversity. Instead we recommend advancing strategic indicators around species at risk based on long-term monitoring data, deliberate and explicitly stated baselines, and consistent methods of conservation ranking.     

Vulnerability and Resilience of Tropical Forest Species to Land‐Use Change

Abstract: We provide a cross‐taxon and historical analysis of what makes tropical forest species vulnerable to extinction. Several traits have been important for species survival in the recent and distant geological past, including seed dormancy and vegetative growth in plants, small body size in mammals, and vagility in insects. For major past catastrophes, such as the five mass extinction events, large range size and vagility or dispersal were key to species survival. Traits that make some species more vulnerable to extinction are consistent across time scales. Terrestrial organisms, particularly animals, are more extinction prone than marine organisms. Plants that persist through dramatic changes often reproduce vegetatively and possess mechanisms of die back. Synergistic interactions between current anthropogenic threats, such as logging, fire, hunting, pests and diseases, and climate change are frequent. Rising temperatures threaten all organisms, perhaps particularly tropical organisms adapted to small temperature ranges and isolated by distance from suitable future climates. Mutualist species and trophic specialists may also be more threatened because of such range‐shift gaps. Phylogenetically specialized groups may be collectively more prone to extinction than generalists. Characterization of tropical forest species’ vulnerability to anthropogenic change is constrained by complex interactions among threats and by both taxonomic and ecological impediments, including gross undersampling of biotas and poor understanding of the spatial patterns of taxa at all scales.     

Integrated Monitoring and Information Systems for Managing Aquatic Invasive Species in a Changing Climate

Abstract:  Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change.     

National Responsibilities in European Species Conservation: a Methodological Review

Abstract: One particular challenge in reducing the loss of biodiversity by 2010, as agreed on at the Earth Summit in 2002, is to assign conservation tasks to geographic or administrative entities (e.g., countries or regions) on different geographical scales. To identify conservation tasks, it is imperative to determine the importance of a specific area for the global survival of a species. So far, these national or subnational responsibilities for the conservation of species have been included differently in methods prioritizing conservation. We reviewed how 12 European and 3 non‐European methods determined national conservation responsibilities and evaluated the international importance of a biological population. Different countries used different methodologies, which made a direct comparison of assessments of national responsibilities among countries extremely difficult. Differences existed in the importance criteria used. Criteria included population decline, range reduction, rarity status, degree of isolation of a population, endemism, proportional distribution, and geographic location. To increase comparability, it is imperative to develop criteria for which data are generally available and to standardize the methodology among countries. A standardized method would allow conservation decisions to be based on the conservation status of a species and on the responsibility of a geographic or administrative entity for the survival of a species. We suggest that such a method should use a scalable index of proportional distribution, taxonomic status, and the distribution pattern of a taxon or species as key elements. Such a method would allow for the creation of hierarchical lists and would be highly relevant for parts of the world with multiple political jurisdictions or state unions and for nations with regional governmental structures. Conservation priorities could then be reasonably set by combining national responsibility assessments with the international conservation status of a species.     

Toward reassessing data‐deficient species

One in 6 species (13,465 species) on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is classified as data deficient due to lack of information on their taxonomy, population status, or impact of threats. Despite the chance that many are at high risk of extinction, data‐deficient species are typically excluded from global and local conservation priorities, as well as funding schemes. The number of data‐deficient species will greatly increase as the IUCN Red List becomes more inclusive of poorly known and speciose groups. A strategic approach is urgently needed to enhance the conservation value of data‐deficient assessments. To develop this, we reviewed 2879 data‐deficient assessments in 6 animal groups and identified 8 main justifications for assigning data‐deficient status (type series, few records, old records, uncertain provenance, uncertain population status or distribution, uncertain threats, taxonomic uncertainty, and new species). Assigning a consistent set of justification tags (i.e., consistent assignment to assessment justifications) to species classified as data deficient is a simple way to achieve more strategic assessments. Such tags would clarify the causes of data deficiency; facilitate the prediction of extinction risk; facilitate comparisons of data deficiency among taxonomic groups; and help prioritize species for reassessment. With renewed efforts, it could be straightforward to prevent thousands of data‐deficient species slipping unnoticed toward extinction.     

Harnessing the potential of integrated systematics for conservation of taxonomically complex,megadiverse plant groups

The value of natural history collections for conservation science research is increasingly recognized, despite their well-documented limitations in terms of taxonomic, geographic, and temporal coverage. Specimen-based analyses are particularly important for tropical plant groups for which field observations are scarce and potentially unreliable due to high levels of diversity-amplifying identification challenges. Specimen databases curated by specialists are rich sources of authoritatively identified, georeferenced occurrence data, and such data are urgently needed for large genera. We compared entries in a monographic database for the large Neotropical genus Myrcia in 2007 and 2017. We classified and quantified differences in specimen records over this decade and determined the potential impact of these changes on conservation assessments. We distinguished misidentifications from changes due to taxonomic remodeling and considered the effects of adding specimens and georeferences. We calculated the potential impact of each change on estimates of extent of occurrence (EOO), the most frequently used metric in extinction-risk assessments of tropical plants. We examined whether particular specimen changes were associated with species for which changes in EOO over the decade were large enough to change their conservation category. Corrections to specimens previously misidentified or lacking georeferences were overrepresented in such species, whereas changes associated with taxonomic remodeling (lumping and splitting) were underrepresented. Among species present in both years, transitions to less threatened status outnumbered those to more threatened (8% vs 3%, respectively). Species previously deemed data deficient transitioned to threatened status more often than to not threatened (10% vs 7%, respectively). Conservation scientists risk reaching unreliable conclusions if they use specimen databases that are not actively curated to reflect changing knowledge.     

Detecting Extinction Risk from Climate Change by IUCN Red List Criteria

Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow‐acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short‐lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions. Detección del Riesgo de Extinción a partir del Cambio Climático por medio del Criterio de la Lista Roja de la UICNKeith et al.