Estimating Full IM240 Emissions from Partial Test Results: Evidence from Arizona

ABSTRACT

The expense and inconvenience of enhanced-vehicle-emissions testing using the full 240-second dynamometer test has led states to search for ways to shorten the test process. In fact, all states that currently use the IM240 allow some type of fast-pass, usually as early in the test as second 31, and Arizona has allowed vehicles to fast-fail after second 93. While these shorter tests save states millions of dollars in inspection lanes and driver costs, there is a loss of information since test results are no longer comparable across vehicles. This paper presents a methodology for estimating full 240-second results from partial-test results for three pollutants: HC, CO, and NO_x. If states can convert all tests to consistent IM240 readings, they will be able to better characterize fleet emissions and to evaluate the impact of inspection and maintenance and other programs on emissions over time. Using a random sample of vehicles in Arizona which received full 240-second tests, we use regression analysis to estimate the relationship between emissions at second 240 and emissions at earlier seconds in the test. We examine the influence of other variables such as age, model-year group, and the pollution level itself on this relationship. We also use the estimated coefficients in several applications. First, we try to shed light on the frequent assertion that the results of the dynamometer test provide guidance for vehicle repair of failing vehicles. Using a probit analysis, we find that the probability that a failing vehicle will pass the test on the first retest is greater the longer the test has progressed. Second, we test the accuracy of our estimates for forecasting fleet emissions from partial-test emissions results in Arizona. We find forecasted fleet average emissions to be very close to the actual fleet averages for light-duty vehicles, but not quite as good for trucks, particularly when NO_x emissions are forecast.     

Costs, emissions reductions, and vehicle repair: evidence from Arizona

The Arizona inspection and maintenance (I/M) program provides one of the first opportunities to examine the costs and effectiveness of vehicle emission repair. This paper examines various aspects of emission reductions, fuel economy improvements, and repair costs, drawing data from over 80,000 vehicles that failed the I/M test in Arizona between 1995 and the first half of 1996. We summarize the wealth of data on repair from the Arizona program and highlight its limitations. Because missing or incomplete cost information has been a serious shortcoming for the evaluation of I/M programs, we develop a method for estimating repair costs when they are not reported. We find surprising evidence that almost one quarter of all vehicles that take the I/M test are never observed to pass the test. Using a statistical analysis, we provide some information about the differences between the vehicles that pass and those that do not. Older, more polluting vehicles are much more likely never to pass the I/M test, and their expected repair costs are much higher than those for newer cars. This paper summarizes the evidence on costs and emission reductions in the Arizona program, comparing costs and emissions reductions between cars and trucks. Finally, we examine the potential for more cost-effective repair, first through an analysis of tightening I/M cut points and then by calculating the cost savings of achieving different emission reduction goals when the most cost-effective repairs are made first.     

Real-World Vehicle Emissions: A Summary of the Sixth Coordinating Research Council On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop

The Coordinating Research Council (CRC) has conducted a series of workshops on real-world vehicle emissions. This article summarizes findings from the most recent research regarding on-road emissions from mobile sources, presented at the CRC workshop held in March 1996. Among the topics discussed were efforts to improve and update emission models, results from field studies designed to understand the contribution of mobile sources to emission inventories, results from gas-and particle-phase emissions studies from in-use motor vehicles, and areas of future research.

The Sixth Coordinating Research Council (CRC) On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop was held March 18-20, 1996, in San Diego, CA. More than 160 representatives from academia, industry, government, and consulting firms in the United States, Canada, and Europe participated in the three-day meeting. The objective of the Workshop was to present the most recent information from research programs on:

mobile source contributions to the emission inventory

emission factor models and activity data

model comparison and development

emission reduction programs

new developments in remote sensing

studies of on-road vehicle exhaust and non-tailpipe emissions

off-cycle Federal Test Procedure (FTP) studies and revisions to the FTP

particle emissions from the light- and heavy-duty fleets

future research needs

Nine sessions were devoted to vehicle emissions models, improvements to the emission inventory, on-road and tunnel studies, off-cycle emissions, non-tailpipe and diesel emissions, emission reduction programs, and remote sensing. Overall workshop coordination was provided by Timothy Belian and the CRC staff, with Steven Cadle and Robert Gorse serving as cochairmen. Individual session chairmen were Brent Bailey (National Renewable Energy Laboratory), Mark Carlock (California Air Resources Board), Harold Haskew (General Motors), Kenneth Knapp and Philip Lorang (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency), Douglas Lawson (Colorado State University), Alan Lloyd (Desert Research Institute), Robert Slott (Shell Oil), and Timothy Truex (University of California, Riverside). In addition, during the Workshop, Lesha Hrynchuk of the California Air Resources Board (CARB) presented a hands-on demonstration using the Internet to obtain motor vehicle emissions information from groups throughout the world. The complete Workshop proceedings are available from the Coordinating Research Council, 219 Perimeter Center Parkway, Atlanta, GA 30346; phone: (770) 396-3400; fax: (770) 396-3404. The following summarizes each session and includes a short synopsis of all the papers that were presented.     

Real-World Vehicle Emissions: A Summary of the Tenth Coordinating Research Council On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop

ABSTRACT

The Coordinating Research Council (CRC) held its tenth workshop in March 2000, focusing on results from the most recent real-world vehicle emissions research. In this paper, we summarize the presentations from researchers who are engaged in improving our understanding of the contribution of mobile sources to emission inventories. Participants in the workshop discussed efforts to improve mobile source emission models and emission inventories, results from gas- and particle-phase emissions studies from spark-ignition and diesel-powered vehicles, new methods for measuring mobile source emissions, improvements in vehicle emission control systems (ECSs), and evaluation of motor vehicle inspection/maintenance (I/M) programs, as well as topics for future research.     

Real-World Vehicle Emissions: A Summary of the Ninth Coordinating Research Council On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop

ABSTRACT

In April 1999, the Coordinating Research Council sponsored a workshop focusing on our understanding of real-world emissions from motor vehicles. This summary presents the latest information on in-use light- and heavy-duty vehicle tailpipe and evaporative emissions, the effects of fuels on emissions, field programs designed to understand the contribution of mobile sources to emission inventories, efforts to evaluate and improve mobile source emission models, progress of vehicle inspection/ maintenance programs, and topics for future research. While significant progress has been made in understanding in-use vehicle emissions, further improvements are necessary. Moreover, the impact of current and future changes in emission control technologies and control programs will have to be monitored for effectiveness and incorporated into the emission factor models.     

Urban CO Concentrations and Vehicle Emissions

The effect of the general growth of CO vehicular emissions in urban areas on the CAMP station measurements in downtown areas, where vehicular traffic is saturated is considered. With the assumption that the street-level CO concentration is derived from the sum of an urban background term and a local street-effect term, the urban background CO concentration is computed with a diffusion model by introducing a simple area source distribution. The local street-effect term is taken to be constant at a saturation emission level corresponding to a saturation traffic density when the emission per vehicle-mile and meteorological conditions are fixed. The present analysis indicates that the local street-effect term, AC, has a major role in determining street-level concentrations for pollutants, such as CO, whose air quality standard is based on maximum concentrations with averaging times of 1 hour and 8 hours. The relevance of this analysis to the abatement requirements of the Clean Air Amendments and to the driving cycle adopted is discussed.     

A Characterization of Emissions from an Early Model Flexible-Fuel Vehicle

An emission study was conducted on a 1987 Ford Crown Victoria flexible-fuel vehicle, an early prototype which had been driven about 25,000 miles. The vehicle was run on both gasoline and a blend of 85 percent methanol and 15 percent gasoline. Emission rates of regulated pollutants (hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, formaldehyde, and methanol) and nonregulated pollutants (speciated organic materials) were determined for both exhaust and evaporative emissions. Tests were run varying the driving cycle, ambient temperature and catalytic converter. In general, hydrocarbon composition of exhaust emissions was significantly affected by catalyst replacement and cold starts, slightly affected by driving schedule, and unaffected by ambient temperature and test fuel. Hydrocarbon composition of evaporative emissions was only sensitive to the type of evaporative test being performed: diurnal tests typically had larger fractions of lower molecular weight paraffins than hot soak tests.     

Real-World Emissions from a Modern Production Vehicle Driven in Los Angeles

The emissions of hydrocarbons, nitric oxide, and carbon monoxide from one modern vehicle were measured using on-board instrumentation during about 350 miles of driving in Los Angeles, California. Emissions during on-road driving were compared to those obtained on dynamometers using the urban dynamometer driving schedule (UDDS). Although this study only used one driver and vehicle, tested over a relatively short distance, the analysis technique may be useful for a larger evaluation of off-cycle emissions.

The test vehicle had low warmed-up running emissions over the UDDS and for most of the on-road testing where the air-to-fuel ratio was maintained at the stoichiometric point. However, occasional heavily-loaded conditions during the on-road testing led to richerthan-stoiehiometric operation.

During these brief enrichment events, which lasted up to 29 seconds, CO emissions were increased by a factor of 2500 and HC by a factor of 40 over closed-loop stoichiometric operation. Nitrogen oxide emissions were similar during low-load stoichiometric operation and high-load enriched operation. The relatively constant gram-per-second emission rate of CO and HC observed during enriched operation suggests that such information can be combined with determinations of the frequency of enrichment for a large number of vehicles with similar calibrations to estimate the impact of the additional emissions from enrichment on emissions inventories.     

Daily Variability of Motor Vehicle Emissions Derived from Traffic Counter Data

ABSTRACT

This work studied the daily variability of mobile sources in rural and urban areas, in and around the Atlanta Metropolitan Area. Traffic counter data collected during the 1992 Southern Oxidants Study Atlanta Intensive Study were used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of traffic volume. A simple method to study the daily variability of mobile emissions from the different types of urban and rural roads is presented. The method is based on hourly traffic volume data and emission factors and it has been generalized to describe the daily variability of mobile emissions for urban and rural areas and for the whole modeling domain. Implications of this study for improving mobile emission inventories are also discussed.     

Criteria and Air-Toxic Emissions from In-Use Automobiles in the National Low-Emission Vehicle Program

Abstract

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) implemented a program to identify tailpipe emissions of criteria and air-toxic contaminants from in-use, light-duty low-emission vehicles (LEVs). EPA recruited 25 LEVs in 2002 and measured emissions on a chassis dynamometer using the cold-start urban dynamometer driving schedule of the Federal Test Procedure. The emissions measured included regulated pollutants, particulate matter, speciated hydrocarbon compounds, and carbonyl compounds. The results provided a comparison of emissions from real-world LEVs with emission standards for criteria and air-toxic compounds. Emission measurements indicated that a portion of the in-use fleet tested exceeded standards for the criteria gases. Real-time regulated and speciated hydrocarbon measurements demonstrated that the majority of emissions occurred during the initial phases of the cold-start portion of the urban dynamometer driving schedule. Overall, the study provided updated emission factor data for real-world, in-use operation of LEVs for improved emissions modeling and mobile source inventory development.     

Formaldehyde,Melhanol and Hydrocarbon Emissions from Methanol-fueled Cars

Exhaust and evaporative emissions tests were conducted on several methanol- and gasoline-fueled vehicles. Separate samples for chromatographlc analysis of formaldehyde, methanol, and Individual hydrocarbons were collected in each of the three phases of the driving cycle and in each of the two portions of the evaporative emissions test. One vehicle, equipped with an experimental variable-fuel engine, was tested using methanol/gasoline fuel mixtures of 100, 85, 50,15, and 0 percent methanol. Combustion-generated hydrocarbons were lowest using methanol fuel, and increased several-fold as the gasoline fraction was increased. Gasoline components In the exhaust Increased from zero as the gasoline fraction of the fuel was Increased. On the other hand, formaldehyde emissions were several times higher using methanol fuel than they were using gasoline. A dedicated methanol car and the variable-fuel car gave similar emissions patterns when they both were tested using methanol fuel. The organic-carbon composition of the exhaust was 85-90 percent methanol, 5-7 percent formaldehyde, and 3-9 percent hydrocarbons. Several cars that were tested using gasoline emitted similar distributions of hydrocarbons, even through the vehicles represented a broad range of current and developmental engine families and emissions control systems. These vehicles continue the trend of the past twenty years toward less photochemically reactive exhaust, with higher percentages of methane and total alkanes, and correspondingly lower percentages of oleflns and aromatlcs.     

Remote Sensing Data and a Potential Model of Vehicle Exhaust Emissions

In June 1991, General Motors Research and Development Center (GMR&D) participated in a remote sensing study conducted by the California Air Resources Board and the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency. During this study, the GMR&D remote sensor was used to measure the carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbon (HC) emissions from approximately 15,000 vehicles. The vehicle type (passenger car, light-duty truck, or medium/heavy-duty truck), manufacturer, and model year were identified for each vehicle by acquiring registration data from the state of California. Analyses were performed separately for each vehicle type and for passenger cars by separate model years. The data indicate that the passenger cars with the highest 10% of CO emissions generated approximately 58% of the total CO from all cars. Similarly, the 10% highest HC-emitting cars generated 65% of the total HC from cars. It was found that for each model year of vehicle, the distribution of emission concentrations followed a logarithmic relationship. The logarithmic functions that describe these relationships can be used to estimate the fraction of vehicles that emitted at or above any given concentration of CO or HC. However, these logarithmic functions only describe measured distributions for vehicles emitting more than 1% CO and 0.015% HC.     

On-Road Motor Vehicle Emissions and Fuel Consumption in Urban Driving Conditions

ABSTRACT

This paper reports on the analysis of on-road vehicle speed, emission, and fuel consumption data collected by four instrumented vehicles. Time-, distance-, and fuel-based average fuel consumption, as well as CO, HC, NO_x, and soot emission factors, were derived. The influences of instantaneous vehicle speed on emissions and fuel consumption were studied. It was found that the fuel-based emission factors varied much less than the time- and distance-based emission factors as instantaneous speed changed. The trends are similar to the results obtained from laboratory tests. The low driving speed contributed to a significant portion of the total emissions over a trip. Furthermore, the on-road data were analyzed using the modal approach. The four standard driving modes are acceleration, cruising, deceleration, and idling. It was found that the transient driving modes (i.e., acceleration and deceleration) were more polluting than the steady-speed driving modes (i.e., cruising and idling) in terms of g/km and g/ sec. These results indicated that the on-road emission measurement is feasible in deriving vehicle emissions and fuel consumption factors in urban driving conditions.     

Modeling In-Use Vehicle Emissions and the Effects of Inspection and Maintenance Programs

Different ways for modeling the impact of vehicle emission inspection and maintenance programs on fleet hydrocarbon emissions are examined. A dynamic model is developed for forecasting fleet emissions in which individual vehicle performance is modeled as a stochastic process and vehicle emissions are tracked over time. Emissions inspection and repair are incorporated into the model, allowing for the stochastic aspects of both testing and repair. This model is compared to EPA’s model for evaluating the impact of vehicle emissions inspection and maintenance. We find that the way vehicle emission equipment deterioration overtime is modeled is important for forecasting emissions from the fleet and for assessing the success of inspection and maintenance programs. For inspection programs, we find that factors such as the proportion of vehicles tested, and repair effectiveness and duration have the greatest impact on emission reductions. The ability of different emission testing regimes to identify polluting vehicles has less impact on a program’s overall potential for emissions reduction. Policy recommendations for I&M testing and predictions of emission reduction credits from these tests will depend in important ways on the methods used in the underlying emissions models.     

Electricity from Fossil Fuels without CO2 Emissions: Assessing the Costs of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Sequestration in U.S. Electricity Markets

ABSTRACT

The decoupling of fossil-fueled electricity production from atmospheric CO₂ emissions via CO₂ capture and sequestration (CCS) is increasingly regarded as an important means of mitigating climate change at a reasonable cost. Engineering analyses of CO₂ mitigation typically compare the cost of electricity for a base generation technology to that for a similar plant with CO₂ capture and then compute the carbon emissions mitigated per unit of cost. It can be hard to interpret mitigation cost estimates from this plant-level approach when a consistent base technology cannot be identified. In addition, neither engineering analyses nor general equilibrium models can capture the economics of plant dispatch. A realistic assessment of the costs of carbon sequestration as an emissions abatement strategy in the electric sector therefore requires a systems-level analysis. We discuss various frameworks for computing mitigation costs and introduce a simplified model of electric sector planning. Results from a “bottom-up” engineering-economic analysis for a representative U.S. North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) region illustrate how the penetration of CCS technologies and the dispatch of generating units vary with the price of carbon emissions and thereby determine the relationship between mitigation cost and emissions reduction.     

Sensitivity Analysis and Evaluation of MicroFacCO: A Microscale Motor Vehicle Emission Factor Model for CO Emissions

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a sensitivity analysis of a microscale emission factor model (MicroFacCO) for predicting realtime site-specific motor vehicle CO emissions to input variables, as well as a limited field study evaluation of the model. The sensitivity analysis has shown that MicroFacCO emission estimates are very sensitive to vehicle fleet composition, speed, and ambient temperature. For the present U.S. traffic fleet, the CO emission rate (g/mi) is increased by more than 500% at 5 mph in comparison with a speed greater than 40 mph and by ~67% at ambient temperatures of 45 °F and ≥95 °F in comparison with an ambient temperature of 75 °F.     

Emissions from India's transport sector: Statewise synthesis

A decentralized emission inventories are prepared for road transport sector of India in order to design and implement suitable technologies and policies for appropriate mitigation measures. Globalization and liberalization policies of the government in 90's have increased the number of road vehicles nearly 92.6% from 1980–1981 to 2003–2004. These vehicles mainly consume non-renewable fossil fuels, and are a major contributor of green house gases, particularly CO₂ emission. This paper focuses on the statewise road transport emissions (CO₂, CH₄, CO, NO_x, N₂O, SO₂, PM and HC), using region specific mass emission factors for each type of vehicles. The country level emissions (CO₂, CH₄, CO, NO_x, N₂O, SO₂ and NMVOC) are calculated for railways, shipping and airway, based on fuel types. In India, transport sector emits an estimated 258.10 Tg of CO₂, of which 94.5% was contributed by road transport (2003–2004). Among all the states and Union Territories, Maharashtra's contribution is the largest, 28.85 Tg (11.8%) of CO₂, followed by Tamil Nadu 26.41 Tg (10.8%), Gujarat 23.31 Tg (9.6%), Uttar Pradesh 17.42 Tg (7.1%), Rajasthan 15.17 Tg (6.22%) and, Karnataka 15.09 Tg (6.19%). These six states account for 51.8% of the CO₂ emissions from road transport.     

Emissions profile from new and in-use handheld, 2-stroke engines

The objective of this study was to characterize exhaust emissions from a series of handheld, 2-stroke small engines. A total of 23 new and used engines from model years 1981–2003 were studied; these engines spanned three phases of emission control (pre-control, phase-1, phase-2). Measured emissions included carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), hydrocarbons (HC), fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), and sulfur dioxide (SO₂). Emissions reductions in CO (78%) and HC (52%) were significant between pre-control and phase-2 engines. These reductions can be attributed to improvements in engine design, reduced scavenging losses, and implementation of catalytic exhaust control. Total hydrocarbon emissions were strongly correlated with fuel consumption rates, indicating varying degrees of scavenging losses during the intake/exhaust stroke. The use of a reformulated gasoline containing 10% ethanol resulted in a 15% decrease in HC and a 29% decrease in CO emissions, on average. Increasing oil content of 2-stroke engine fuels results in a substantial increase of PM_2.5 emissions as well as smaller increases in HC and CO emissions. Results from this study enhance existing emission inventories and appear to validate predicted improvements to ambient air quality through implementation of new phase-2 handheld emission standards.